Yesterday Channel 4 news and JLPartners released an interesting poll of so-called “red wall” seats. A lot of things get written about “Red Wall seats” that don’t necessarily have much thought behind them. It is the Essex man or Worcester woman of the 2019 election, an easy buzzword that is too often a substitute for proper understanding. They are important, but you need to look careful at the nuances.

Let us start by going back to where the term originated, with James Kanagasooriam. It wasn’t just a generic word for northern marginals or Tory targets – James coined it when talking about as seats that demographically should have been Conservative, but which consistently voted Labour. James actually identified several groups of these seats – some in Wales, some in County Durham, and a big swathe of them across urban Lancashire and Yorkshire that looked like a red wall. Hence the name.

The whole point of James’ argument was that there were seats that in terms of their make up (class, economy, education, age structure and so on) you would expect to vote Conservative, but that they actually voted Labour because of a cultural, historical and social hostility towards the Tories. These weren’t seats full of horny-handed sons of toil, they were seats that were or had become more affluent but yet not become Tory. Sefton, for example, is largely affluent suburbia, with some of the highest home-ownership rates in the country. Yet it votes Labour, because it’s Liverpool’s suburbs, and people in Liverpool are not inclined to go about voting Conservative.

One can debate the reasons for this dislike, but the most obvious explanations are historical: the identity as former mining communities, the legacy and memory of Thatcherism and the dismantling of industry in the North in the 1980s. The point was, this was an obstacle to the Tories – how to appeal to these people who “should” demographically be their target audience, but for whatever reason were not interested.

Skipping ahead, we know that the Conservatives did manage to do this in many areas in 2017 and 2019. In fact in many of these areas there has been an incredible sea-change in voting behavior. Across the two elections the Conservatives have made gains there that would have looked unbelievable ten years ago. In 2015, the Conservatives won the national share of the vote by 7%. In 2019 they won by 12%, that is, a 2.5% swing across those two elections. Compare that to the Lab=>Con swing in some of the “red wall” seats. Sedgefield experienced a 14% swing across the two elections, Blyth Valley 13%, Bolsover 19%, Leigh 18%.

While there are some areas that did not follow this tide (Merseyside in particular is still extremely unforgiving territory for the Conservative party), among other areas in Lancashire, Country Durham, and Derbyshire mining areas the “red wall” decisively crumbled.

There are different explanations one can come up with for what happened. Part of it was probably the disruptive effect Brexit had upon traditional party ties, part of it perhaps a general change to the way the Conservative party has presented itself and its message. Much will simply be to the passage of time – those old mining identities can only sustain for so long once the mines have closed, the miners have passed on, the old sites regenerated and replaced by new build housing estates.

However, the Tory advances of 2017 and 2019 were not just in James’s red wall seats. Here is where it gets complicated, and why one should be cautious about throwing all those 2019 gains in together. The Conservatives gained other seats as well, some of which don’t match this description at all. Lewis Baston has written about this well previously. Some of them were in perennial marginals – places like Darlington, Stockton South, Keighley or Lincoln that have been competitive for decades and just happen to be in the North or the Midlands. If you are looking at opinion in the “red wall seats”, you have to be careful how you define it, and what you are actually looking at.

All that brings me round to the actual JLpartners/Channel 4 polling. This polled 500 people in the seats that the Conservatives won from Labour in the North & Midlands in 2019. The write up and full tables are here (do go and have a read, as there is lots of detail I have not explored below).

Overall the poll shows Labour at 47%, the Conservatives at 41%. In comparison, in the same seats the vote share in 2019 was Conservative 48%, Labour 39%. That translates into a swing of 7.5% from Conservative to Labour. In comparison the national polls conducted over the same period showed on average a Conservative lead of 1 point, a swing of 5.5% from Conservative to Labour.

On the face of it, that suggests the Conservatives are doing marginally worse in these seats than in the country as a whole. If that was to happen at an election it would be unusual – parties actually tend to do a bit better than average in seats they gained at the previous election because they have gained the incumbency advantage (the MP’s “personal vote”), and their opponents have lost it, so this would be a particularly poor performance. However, I should add the caveat that it’s just one poll of 500 people, so there is a margin of error of 4% on there. We should not put too much confidence on whether the Conservatives are doing a couple of percentage points better or worse in an area based on a single poll.

More interesting of course would be to be able to look under the bonnet at the different types of seat within those we’ve lumped together as “red wall” seats. Are there different patterns at work in those traditional marginal seats to those former mining and industrial seats that have been part of the bigger red-wall sea-change. There is no particular reason to think that seats like Lincoln or Blackpool South or Gedling would behave any differently to marginal seats elsewhere – but for seats like Sedgefield, Bassetlaw or Bolsover there’s a question of whether the political re-alignment we’ve seen over the last few elections has come to a halt or is still ongoing.

That’s not to say the JLPartners/Channel 4 poll isn’t good stuff – it is – it’s more than it’s only a starting point.

The question people tend to ask on the back of polls like this is whether the Tories need to worry unduly about keeping these seats in their column, and whether Labour can win them back. In that context, it is probably too simplistic to look at them as a single lump. In one sense, obviously these seats will be part of the battleground – but that’s just a truism. These are marginal seats, elections will be always be won and lost in the marginal seats. The more important question is whether these marginal seats are the ones that are most likely to change at the next election, or whether by looking at the fashionable “red wall” seats we miss looking at potentially more vulnerable seats elsewhere?

It may be that the political re-alignment in the true “red wall” seats is so seismic that they actually become safer Tory seats than some of the more traditional marginals. It may be that the more vulnerable Tory seats next time round are actually some more affluent seats with high proportions of graduates. The pattern of key marginals next time round could be those that are similar to North West Bristol or Canterbury, rather than winning back old mining seats.

Northern Tory gains last time weren’t monolithic – it isn’t one single “red wall” – they mix up some traditional marginals, as well as some sea that have seen truly transformational change. We shouldn’t assume they’ll behave as one block, or in the same way in the future either. Equally, we shouldn’t necessarily assume that all the interesting changes at the next election will happen in the same place as the last one. There are risks and opportunities elsewhere too.


12,042 Responses to “On the importance of the “Red Wall” seats”

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  1. The Conservative Chair of the NI Select Committee is one of the few current Conservative lawmakers with a sense of reality and a willingness to challenge the madder elements of his party. he’s also rather entertaining. On the NI tunnel joke – https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1360876933685407747

    “Let’s concentrate on making the Protocol work and put the hallucinogenics down”

    :)

  2. Could we also have vaccine hesitancy done by social class / education level?

    We report on BAME but not on these other real indicators.

    Strong argument that BAME is more an indicator of social class / lack of education than race. By a focus on BAME we deny the problems of the white working class – yes, all lives matter.

  3. Colin @ 10.06 am

    You are playing with words, and hiding the facts that Hancock and Johnson have made a promise that won`t be kept in the meaning it had when it was uttered.

    Yes I know perfectly well that you will take this route to hide the Tory untruths, and that to stop your word-play I need adjectives to cove the wretched people who refuse the vaccinations they have been offered.

    But you cannot deny these numbers which I have pasted out from the government`s stats newly posted this morning:

    “”.202,110 people aged 70-74 living in the community (72%) – this excludes care home residents who are reported separately””

  4. @davwel

    “For Scotland the score for those 70-74 years-old was “almost half” vaccinated, as reported in our yesterday`s evening paper. So 50% plus of this cohort to be vaccinated in 2 days, is a big ask.”

    As at 8.30am on Saturday morning, the position on the vaccination of over 70s in Scotland was:

    “182,917 people aged 75-79 living in the community (96%) – this excludes care home residents who are reported separately
    202,110 people aged 70-74 living in the community (72%) – this excludes care home residents who are reported separately”

    That would leave about 78,000 in the 70 to 74 age group to vaccinate which over three days (ie up to and including 15 Feb) would be about 26,000 a day. Daily vaccinations had been in the 50,000 to 60,000 a day in Scotland recently.

  5. PS to 10:47am. London (and other cities) will have higher ‘acquired immunity’.

    Cambridge nowcast (part of SPI-M) reckon ‘attack rate’ by region is (relative to average)

    London: 35% (+10)
    W.Mids: 31% (+6)
    NW: 30% (+5)

    England average: 25%

    East: 24% (-1)
    E.Mids: 24% (-1)
    Y+H: 23% (-2)
    NE: 23% (-2)
    SE: 19% (-6)
    SW: 10% (-15)

    There are obviously issues around ‘anitibodies v T-cells’, how long immunity lasts (how quickly it fades), innate/inert immunity, etc but anyone who was ‘exposed to’ (‘attacked by’ as Cambridge call it) C19 in the last few months will likely have v.high% of immunity into the Summer

    SPI-M should be taking that into account but it also fairly obvious that cities need a much higher % of ‘population immunity’ to contain C19 – that is why they had the higher ‘attack rate’ in the first place.

    EG Moving to a ‘new-near normal’ then SWest could maybe keep R below 1 on 50% immunity (R0=2) where as London might need 75% immunity (R0=4)

  6. Alec

    I’m sorry but you are just talking absolute bo**cks for once. Not like you but i suppose sometimes one’s political bias overcomes the facts.
    Sorry to see it from you.

    Have a good day all, off for a walk.

  7. @TOH – it’s always possible that I’ve made a mistake and got my facts wrong, but rather than abuse, why don’t you point out which of my facts is not correct?

    Unless, of course…..

  8. The trevs,
    “Deaths should be have dropped below 200 per day (maybe down to below 100 if vaccines as good as we hope)”

    If vaccines work as well as hoped then in a month hospital admissions should be down to maybe 20% on that basis alone. Deaths lags more, and I gather there is a lot of bed blocking where covid patients cannot go home despite ostensibly being well because care homes won’t take them. Other home care services supplied to sick people going home similarly overstretched so they cannot be discharged. There’s well people in hospital being counted as covid sick.

    plus the fact this wave of infection is ending naturally anyway.

    Oldnat,
    “I note that the Telegraph is pushing the idea that a tunnel linking Scotland and NI would “help unblock trade which has been hit by Brexit tensions”. ”

    I would think either a bridge or tunnel to Ireland would assist Scotland becoming an independent member of the EU. I assume N.Ireland will become increasingly integrated with the S and conservative and unionist England would be happy to let both depart

    The EU would probably contribute to the cost to help link a new member to the mainland.

  9. @ToH
    You think less than one in a thousand is appalling, despite those who monitor this process being perfectly comfortable with that number.

    It’s noticeable that they reference ‘Prevent’ specifically as being a driver of exclusions – presumably, therefore, many of these exclusions relate to supporters of terrorist organisations – do you feel these exclusions should be over-ruled and terrorist organisations allowed to speak and proselytise on campus?

    We don’t know who these ‘excluded’ individuals are; those tasked with monitoring these processes do know and are comfortable – which suggests some caution in condemning the situation.

    It would be dangerous to assume – without evidence – that these handful of exclusions are all those Daily Mail columnists who love to write long columns in national newspapers about how they are being prevented from expressing their views…

  10. For example

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8759219/National-Trust-accused-rewriting-history-property-list-shame-colonial-links.html

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8762255/National-Trust-faces-backlash-linking-Winston-Churchills-home-slavery-colonialism.html

    The National Trust was criticised by Dowden for pointing out that Churchill opposed Indian independence when he was Secretary for the Colonies.

    Just look at the vehemence of the attacks on the Trust from right wing politicians and historians for the temerity of accurately cataloging British history.

    What is it with these right wing types? Are they ashamed of their past?

  11. Alec,
    The silk firm boss having a rant misses the point. We left the EU to keep con in government. Any destructive consequences to the uk economy, wealth or real sovereignty are irrelevant.

  12. @ DAVWEL – As you seem to continue to fail to understand, healthcare delivery is a devolved matter. Scotland is part of UK vaccine purchase programme but Scot.Gov is in charge of NHS Scotland, etc.

    I’m not commenting on Scotland but you if you have issues with Scotland’s vaccine roll-out then take that up with Scot.Gov not UKGE who only have responsibility for NHS England, etc.

  13. TOH

    “They are saying public funds should not be used for political purposes, I agree with that.”

    Delighted to see you condemning UKGov’s “Union Directorate” like that.
    _______________________________________

    Danny

    I’m quite happy for those in E&W to bear 90% of the costs of clearing the WWII munitions and building a tunnel between Scotland and NI, to link the future EU members to the north and west of the separatists.

  14. Alec: Last three paragraphs rather entertaining alternative view of Brexit“

    Yes, the owner of an SME in Stockport doesn’t mince his words. Worth quoting, I think, for those who didn’t follow your link:

    “To turn our backs on the world’s largest trading bloc, which is on our doorstep, in favour of trying to create trade deals with countries that couldn’t be further away, and have much smaller economies, is total stupidity and beyond comprehension,” he says.

    “Covid has kept the Brexit issues out of the headlines, but to try and get a message across to our single- minded, short-sighted government, it needs to be in the headlines. I cannot think of one single positive benefit from Brexit, only negatives, and all my customers and contacts are of the same opinion.

    “Britain used to be great but no longer,” he says, blaming Tory politicians at the top of government. “To adapt a phrase from our most famous leader, ‘Never in the field of British business has so much been destroyed for so many, by so few.’”

    But then, he’s a real businessman and exporter, not an armchair warrior, so what would he know?

  15. TW, 11.24 am:

    Hancock and Johnson over-promising on a UK total is their wrong-doing, not a fault of the admirable effort that has been made in Scotland,

    And the hard work was still being made yesterday.

    I observed the first greeters at the vaccination centre that dealt with Hireton`s husband standing [at an otherwise sensible place] below a nasty funnel of drifting snow swept off the long smooth roof of the sports village now used for vaccinations.

    And the numbers entering for vaccination were fewer than when my wife was jabbed.

    As you have said previously, a few porkies from Johnson are to be expected and tolerated since it boosts the Tory vote.

  16. Hireton @ Davwel

    Even in my days in the NE, the Evening Express wasn’t considered a very reliable source of information, and little seems to have changed.

    I’ve been keeping an eye on the 2nd doses situation in Scotland. To date, c.75% of those receiving their first dose have had their 2nd already. To ensure that all those jagged in 2020 get their 2nd within 12 weeks, mean getting a daily average of around 2,500 done.

    That is fewer than was done daily even in the first vaccination week so, as long as there aren’t further reductions in the Pfizer supply, should pose no problem.

    As always, vaccine supply is the critical issue, so the lack of pressure from the media on UKGov to issue the figures is surprising.

  17. @Somerjohn – here is another example of the realities of gravity – https://twitter.com/chrislowndes/status/1360809975816232964

    We an pretend to be a Pacific island if we want, but that will never mean we are a Pacific island.

    Erecting substantial barriers to the very big trade block on our doorstep will never be outweighed by slightly reducing barriers with the very big trade blocks on the other side of the world.

  18. @Hugo

    “This tunnel between the mainland and Ulster is a marvellous idea, just the sort of can do optimism Boris is famed for. This is the sort of gung ho approach we need now the EU is behind us.”

    I think Boris should just have gone for a scaled up version of the Garden Bridge. I’m sure Joanna Lumley could choose the flowers.

  19. Davwel.

    Noimnot. I am quoting them.

    But selected to believe your own version of the truth.

  20. Colin

    Up early this morning sorting out some barn reconstruction. Was surprised to see a pair of Painted Buntings one of my favourite birds, usually we don’t see them to spring when they come up to breed from Mexico.

    I know your a keen fan of wild life some of the native birds are very colourful and being out in the sticks the old dawn chorus reminds me of my native Dorset. And to bring that home we have a whole flock of Mallards that nest in one of our lakes just like back home.

    Sometimes even with all that’s going on it’s just good to look at nature and realise what is really important.

  21. TW.

    It wasn’t so long ago that their spokespersons were branching the Government for failing to recognise their elevated risk levels.

    Go figure ?

  22. The idea of building a tunnel between Northern Ireland and the West of Scotland is certainly not a new one. it was first discussed in the late 19th Century, and and various times since.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_British_Isles_fixed_sea_link_connections

    What seems odd to me is the lack of discussion of the viability of the project. When I moved (for a time in the 1980s) from the South of England to Northern Ireland I was very struck by just how sparely populated it seemed in comparison; and this is even more so SW Scotland.

    Shouldn’t it be obvious that the potential economic benefits of such a tunnel (or bridge) would be a fraction of those for the tunnel between SE England and the North of France? Meanwhile, most estimates of the cost are that it would be higher.

    The reality is that this isn’t going to happen.

  23. Turk.

    Thanks. Lovely .

    Yes nature is a balm at present. Just come back from the coast_ watching the waves crash on shore. Makes everything else go away.

  24. Putin built the bridge to Crimea in a little over two years.
    Road and rail,
    19 kilometres long.
    3.7 billion dollars.

  25. James E

    “The reality is that this isn’t going to happen.”

    Since the principal proponent of the link is a man who couldn’t even build a bridge from London to London, that seems a reasonable conclusion.

  26. David Colby

    The estimated cost of a bridge across the North Channel was put at £20 billion pounds ten years ago (see my earlier link) – so around 8 times higher than Putin’s bridge.

    And the main reason why the specific location would be costly to bridge (or tunnel) is this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort%27s_Dyke

  27. OLDNAT
    And what happened to that Venetian style walkway on Fleet Street Johnson dangled in front of us?
    (I know it’s true because it was in the express)

    https://www.google.fr/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/lost-rivers-of-london-to-resurface-in-boris-plan-6915015.html%3famp

  28. @ DAVWEL – I admit to having little interest in vaccine roll out in your polity but looking at the actual data it appears all 4 nations will meet the target so what is your problem with Scotland (your polity) anyway?

    Do you have an inability to understand what ‘offering’ means[1] and/or are you using data pre 15Feb and not knowing what day it is?

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

    and ONS data on populations.

    Plenty of recent GB polling does seem to conclude that the vaccine roll out has boosted Boris’s ratings and CON VI. Don’t get the SNATS going about the Scottish X-breaks, it does tend to make them quite cross ;)

    [1] We covered that when the ‘promise’ was first made. You can check SAGE or anyone else and I would expect the vast majority are very impressed with the very high % of uptake. 80% was probably realistic but we’re way over that. There is an issue amongst BAME and hence London in getting more folks to take up the ‘offer’ but as we see in polling most folks are crediting the boost on Boris approval and CON lead in the polls to the UK vaccine programme (and UKGE delivery in England).

    No porkies, just hitting a promise ahead of time in England (and Wales) as everyone in England has been ‘offered’ their first jab (encouraged to come forward even if they refused on first ask or have somehow been missed)

  29. David Colby

    “that Venetian style walkway on Fleet Street”

    Could come in handy when London floods due to climate change.

    The gondolas plying their trade on the Fleet might become a much of a tourist attraction as its brothels were in the 14th century.

  30. @jamese

    And I believe Beaufort’s Dyke is about 200m deep with unstable surrounding geology which would be an interesting tunnelling challenge.

    On the other hand, the comparison between Putin’s Crimea Bridge and a Tory bridge to Ireland works at a geopolitical level of two states asserting their respective nationalisms by building links to contested territories.

  31. TOH.

    I see that you and I are part of an “oppressive right wing regime”.

    Who would have thought ?

  32. In the news 5 days ago:

    “Covid: Over-70s can contact NHS for vaccine in England”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55980053

    The official info being from 8Feb:

    “Call for people aged 70 and over to contact NHS for a COVID jab”

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/2021/02/call-for-people-aged-70-and-over-to-contact-nhs-for-a-covid-jab/

  33. TW.

    Nice try but you are wasting your time with him.

    I should have left him undisturbed in his little bubble of grievance, victimhood and obsession.

  34. @Colin – “I see that you and I are part of an “oppressive right wing regime”.”

    Who said that?

    On nature: quite a site yesterday while walking close to home. First, a red kite, a species largely absent from my patch since a poisoning incident a couple of years ago, followed within moments by a kingfisher.

    The latter sighting really is quite spectacular for up here. Only the second I have observed on this upper dale stretch of river, and notable also due to the season. I’m not famil!ar with the migration patterns of kingfishers, and seeing one this far up in the middle of a prolonged deep freeze is noteworthy.

    My only thought is that if it normally resides in ponds down the dale, these may well be frozen, and going upstream to find open water may be a sign of some desperation. Quite a sight though.

  35. So now we know what the Spaffer regime defines as teething problems.

    Come back in ten years time !

    Pathetic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/14/raab-shrugs-off-brexit-troubles-urging-people-to-take-10-year-view

  36. Alec

    Living in the chiltern hills the site of the original release of a couple of dozen red kites we now have literally thousands.
    Six over the road as I speak.
    Beautiful birds and lovely to see them every day just a few feet above .

  37. YG’s twitter thread recently posted some polling on ‘Empire’. The article was from Mar’20 but I doubt attitudes have changed much. As you’d expect it is very partisan:

    “Digging down into the British figures reveals that there is a deep political divide over the Empire between Remain and Leave voters (as well as Conservative and Labour voters, whose views almost identically match those of Leave and Remain voters respectively).”

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/03/11/how-unique-are-british-attitudes-empire

  38. As nature is discussed. Here is something interesting about deforestation.

    https://qz.com/1972145/beef-and-cattle-are-driving-deforestation/

  39. Turk
    Lovely story, Painted Buntings are great colourful birds. I think I saw my first on Long Island during migration. As OLDNAT says, enjoying nature is a great way of helping to cope with today’s problems.
    COLIN
    “I see that you and I are part of an “oppressive right wing regime”.
    Who would have thought ?”
    Indeed, I’m actually a rather harmless 80 year old who believes in freedom of the individual, and happens to have seen through all the LoC nonsense.

  40. I suppose free speech has two different aspects.

    Yes, individuals have the right to express their opinion, but as it is a social activity, so they then have to.accept the critique of their views. Consequently, if they expect others to listen, they would have to listen to others too.

    The other aspect is the free speech as a part of the war of cultures waged by the current government (the Home Secretary’s recent interview is a good example of the following) in order to deliberately undermine scientific consensus to manipulate (also to exploit) common prejudices in hunting for votes.

  41. @ COLIN – I do normally scroll past DAVWEL and can see it was a mistake replying. Back on the scroll past list for sure.

    IMO Boris and Hancock could have stated they met their vaccination target (in England) back on 8Feb when they ‘offered’ anyone over 70 the chance to have their first jab.

    I expect the reason they didn’t is more to do with the CRG[1] and not being forced into an internally divisive battle about why, with vaccination ‘promise’ met and moving into group5+ already we’re not moving forward the date to reopen schools, etc.

    [1] See Mark Harper (63 CON MPs) open letter. Inside of cabinet then Hancock is the main ‘R’ hawk (Gove leans that way). Rishi and most of cabinet are doves and want to reopen the socio-economy as soon and as quickly as they can.

    That doesn’t mean full-old normal tomorrow and possibly not even as fast as CRG want. However, I’m very pleased to see R at around 0.75 even without too much vaccine impact just yet. Arch-CRG (maybe 30 MPs?) would be pushing to reopen even if R was only just below 1.

  42. @ Hireton, Oldnat and Davwel

    Got my first dose at midday in a sports centre in Pitlochry today. Very busy but queues flowing through well.

    Was surprised to get he pfizer as I assume that was in scarcer supply and would be used more for second doses..

  43. TOH
    “I see that you and I are part of an “oppressive right wing regime”.

    As Alec said
    Who said that?

    Other than Colin I can find no other reference.

    If there’s any such original reference I am sure you can provide it.

    I of course don’t consider you.part of an oppressive right wing regime , just an elderly supporter of one.

  44. STEVE

    “As Alec said
    Who said that”

    I was replying to COLIN who did say it and I replied. I did not mention Alec. Your point is?

    “I of course don’t consider you.part of an oppressive right wing regime , just an elderly supporter of one.

    Well you are fully entitled to your opinion, as i am. I think calling the Government that is absolute nonsense.

  45. and for some actual polling on the legacy of BLM

    “What’s the legacy of this year’s Black Lives Matter protests?”

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/12/23/whats-legacy-years-black-lives-matter-protests

    IMO Patel should have been more specific and pick a more applicable word than ‘dreadful’ but only 13% “Approve of the (Colston) statue being removed and the way in which it was done” which is obviously partisan (21% with LAB and only 3% CON)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/philosophy/survey-results/daily/2020/06/08/1ab21/1

    Not sure if we had a specific poll on Churchill being a rac!st (or the appropriateness of the graffiti) but I’d expect that would be partisan

    Starmer is clearly going to have a challenge in ‘rebranding’ LAB away from ‘woke’ and keep his party and current broad LAB church united on the journey back to broader UK support and chance to become next PM.

  46. In this piece from Clive Lewis note the comments attached to previous LAB leaders, back when LAB used to win elections and we had a LAB PM

    EG back in 2007 “Gordon Brown’s dog-whistle “British jobs for British workers”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/03/labour-red-wall-voters-patriotism-keir-starmer

    Bon chance to Starmer getting a United LAB able to win elections when you have ‘British jobs for British workers’ described as ‘dog whistle’ rather than simply calling it the right policy.

  47. Bardin 1

    “Was surprised to get he pfizer as I assume that was in scarcer supply and would be used more for second doses”

    From what ScotGov and WelshGov have said, their plans for 1st dosing everyone in Groups 1-5 and 2nd dosing within 12 weeks are unaffected by the reduction of supply last week.

    The very high rate of uptake (ie vaccinated, not just “offered”) and the supply reduction currently reduces the rollout to Group 6 – those non-shielding “aged 16 years to 64 years with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality” – and those under 65.

    Figures as of 8:30 this morning –

    1,223,774 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 14,281 have received their second dose

    30,076 care home residents (exceeding the initial target for residents in older adult care homes and 94% of residents in all care homes)
    40,877 care home staff (91% of staff in older adult care homes and 79% of staff in all care homes)
    246,455 people aged 80 or over living in the community (99%) – this excludes care home residents who are reported separately
    280,927 frontline health and social care workers exceeding the initial target of 230,000 staff provided by Health Boards.
    187,666 people aged 75-79 living in the community (99%) – this excludes care home residents who are reported separately
    219,074 people aged 70-74 living in the community (78%) – this excludes care home residents who are reported separately.

  48. TW.

    ST. has an article on Starmer,s consultations about the way forward.

    Mandelson is advising him. The wheel comes full circle. !

  49. TOH,

    Well if you think 53 out of 59,000 is unacceptable and the Government should act I hope you’ll fully support the Police being ordered to stop the game and empty Wembley next time a couple of dozen fans make a racist chant!

    It might only be 70 out of 70,000 but it can’t be tolerated!

    Peter.

    Peter.

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