There have been three GB opinion polls published over the last few days –

YouGov/Times (4th/5th Nov) – CON 35%(-3), LAB 40%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (5th/6th Nov) – CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(+1) (tabs)
Survation (5th/6th Nov) – CON 39%(-2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2) (tabs)

YouGov and Opinium both have Labour clearly ahead (in Opinium’s case that’s confirming the lead in their previous poll; for YouGov it’s the first Labour lead since the election. They come after a ComRes poll last week showing the parties equal and an Ipsos MORI poll that also had a five point lead. While there will always be some volatility in individual polls, looking at the average across all of the polling companies it now looks as if Labour have moved into a small lead.

Back in the summer the Conservatives had a consistent lead averaging around five or six points – since then Labour have been chipping away at it. The most obvious explanation is the generally negative perception of the government’s handling of Corona and Boris Johnson’s leadership, married to the generally positive public attitude towards Keir Starmer.

Despite the timing I would be cautious about reading too much into the impact of Labour’s internal battle and the expulsion of Jeremy Corbyn – while the polling certainly suggested that it had boosted perceptions of Keir Starmer, that increase was largely among Tory voters. In reality, most of the daily soap opera of politics doesn’t have a noticeable impact on voting intentions (especially if it is so rapidly pushed off the front pages by events across the Atlantic) – my guess is that this is more just the continuation of a trend that has been apparent for months, which happened to reach the crossover point in this past fortnight.

Does it matter? In a predictive sense of course not – there are years until MPs have to face the electorate. In terms of it’s impact on politics? Of course – it strengthens Keir Starmer’s hand in internal party fights if he is the man who put Labour back ahead. Equally, it weakens Boris Johnson if he is no longer seen as a popular election winner, something that was once his main selling point to the Tory party.

3,415 Responses to “Labour moves ahead in the opinion polls”

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    I have happened to buy either ex demo or new car for my last 3 cars. One of the most interetsing point that was made to me is that more money is made on second hand cars compare to new ones because the depreciation in the UK is rather steep, Iwas told that you do two things chnage the care before the 3 or 5 year warrantee runs out or keep it until you run it into the ground.

    The difference between a EV and an ICE is firstly there is just som much less to go wrong the engine is the most complex part and other than the regen facility which is different the motor is so much simpler much more attuned to engine management systems and so much more efficient. now at the moment we sell cars as items that we consumer items rather than software upgradable items. In the future we could sell them as items where siftware upgradability is more important tha new cars where battery pack upgrade would be more important since engine upgrade do buy you much it means that you may upgrade you car rather than buy a new one because the upgrade path is simpler. In China they are looking at upgradable battery packs

    Again remember most cars are bought on leasing or financing the actual car in terms of a cost in now subsumed as a service and I remember one ford dealer saying that is how they make their money and indeed his view is ford are a financing company that happens to make cars.

    So a subscription approach with battery swaps is one model that would work and the interestingly many dealers are selling prepayment for servicing and the like. So I think the market will be more creative because the cars now give the flexibility to be so

  2. @Danny

    “.So your point us that since being in the EU trade deal never made the uk a vassal state either, we would be well advised to rejoin?”

    Option a: Decide your own trade deals via negotiators accountable to elected politicians.
    Option b: Let unelected bureaucrats that answer to multi-national bureaucracy do it for you.

    I think option b is the vassal state one.

  3. @Danny

    “The uk was on a path to carve out for itself the exact trading relationship it wanted with the exact level of integration it wanted. It had used the power of membership to bend the EU to its will.”

    Sorry, if Brexit means we dump the integration bit, I’ll settle for that.

    The EU did not bend to the will of the UK, that is wishful thinking.

  4. JiB

    “The EU did not bend to the will of the UK,”

    Apart from that not being what Danny said, didn’t you even stop to consider the implications of your words?

    The other 27 didn’t bend to the will of one member, so flouncing off in a huff is appropriate?

  5. It is not really reported in the UK, but Macron made an alliance with the French fascist party (there were huge demonstrations in France because of this, but Premier League is more important).

    There are times when I think Brexit is rational…

  6. More on YG’s daft daily questions

    “The Church of England has said that door-to-door carol singing will be permitted this year, as long as people maintain 2m social distancing. Would you prefer it if door-to-door carol singers did or did not visit your home this year?”

    What’s the point of that introductory sentence outwith the realm of England’s Established Church (and possibly even within it).

    A useful question might have been “Have you ever had carol singers visiting your home?”, to see where that quaint custom actually happens.

  7. @Oldnat

    We joined a common market and ended up on a journey to a Federal Superstate.

    On the only occasion the electorate were asked, the answer was no.

    Had there been a referendum on Maastricht and Lisbon Treaties, then the journey might have ended sooner, maybe not – democratic consent courageously won then might have taken the wind from the sails of Brexiteers.

    The only time the Federalist elite started to realise the game up was over the issue of joining the Euro. No courage for a referendum then either.

  8. @PTRP
    Many years ago I worked in the motor and motorcycle trade.
    Being a franchised dealer for new cars had three benefits: It provided an excellent source of good quality used cars which could be sold profitably; it provided a steady stream of very profitable service business (this was in the days when service intervals were, say, 5000 miles); it provided a better reputation than ‘used car dealer’. Selling new cars per se provided only wafer thin margins and would not have been viable without the other benefits.
    Economics of motorbikes was different. Sales of bikes, new or used, were even less viable than cars. But there were two rich seams of profit – insurance commission and Hire Purchase commission. In both cases the commission was very high – from memory around 50% of the total charges. Even better, dedicated bikers traded in their bikes once a year and paid the penalty for breaking their old HP agreement. Of course the penalty was merely rolled into the next set of repayments. Kerching.
    It will be interesting to see how car ownership plays out in, say, 25 years. I have always been a petrolhead and own a stupidly over-specified car for my now miniscule needs, and am probably too old to change to a shared use vehicle, which would surely be more rational. Last week my car broke down (it is 15 years old and 130K miles) and turned out to need a new alternator, battery, odds and sods which came to £1600. Rationally it would be scrapped and I would be tempted to buy a new EV. However this would make little sense: I nearly always travel around London by bicycle and only use the car for journeys outside, where range is a serious consideration.
    The cityscape is also dominated by parked cars (particularly in suburban areas) and I have come to see this is horrible for the environment – leaving aside emissions. Going around the posher areas round here I have fpund the destruction fo front gardens quite depressing – leading me to coin the epithet ‘An Englishman’s home is his Car Park’
    The hopeful side of me says that in 25 years we will have returned largely to a rational relationship with cars with a decent supply of electric hire cars, even to the extent that if I want to go to Scotland to annoy OldNat I will change cars at Crewe and carry on in a newly charged one.

  9. The EU debate

    Many of you know my views on this however having read the comments I felt that we seem to have been somewhat parochial on both side of the aisle on this debate.

    I have because of my travels across EU due to work have always looked at the issue from a perspective of say the French when I was in Grenoble and Nice and Irish when I was in Dublin

    Both were sonewhat surprised that we decided to leave both felt that the debate was an attempt to fashion the EU in a bad light and both felt that the UK had done rather well out of the EU with the opt outs and they like. the argument that we impinged on UK sovereignty does not really wash when at one point we are boasting about our opt outs one minutes and saying we are under the yoke the next

    I also think that our political view of european countries is somewhat unsophisticated. I am mindful of the fact that Thatcher was know to find the Germans untrustworthy for no particular reason and the UK political establishment was very much against German reunification. Saying that Germany would be too strong. Interestingly one argument about why Germany is somewhat unforgiving regarding the idea of common purpose on debt is that they covered the reunification all by themselves and paid for it with 10 years of wage stagnation and did so with no help.

    Other countries have different views of UK due to history and the like. Yhe french establishment would point to DeGaulle being right as the Uk was never really interested in being part of the project so the argument of how we are perceived and the lack of trust is something that I think is has rather more legs than we allow it.

    The Irish have more recent negative view of the Uk than sometimes even they allow themselves to express. So in many ways there is already a weariness of the UK approach and more over a preparedness for it. Indeed JIB point of being dragged into a European suer State, TREVOR WARNE’s they are trying to starve us mantra, COLINs they change the game on us really points out to the fact we hear what we want to hear and thus the lack of trust.

    I think that is part of the problem that we appear to be autistic in some ways often saying in one breath we want the Europeans to be our friend but in the other breath arguing that we have been denied liberty we were slaves to the EU.

    I think the point being that PETE B said he was proud of the British Empire despite what it did it. yet we can not perceive that th other member states see the EU as an achievement that we have spend the best part of 4 year rubbishing with many fallacies that we find difficult to tolerate having done much worse when comparing it to the UK finest moments.

    At one level we want mutuality but reciprocity, yet not quiet as many polls show such as the issue of EGIC gather 70% apporval to continue but the whole allowing EU citizen to use the NHS seems a difficult thing garnering only 35%.

    I believe our autisim with respect to the EU is special treatment as other say we want to be treated as equals as if we are bring equal gain to the table. We are not which is why I think rolling over deals which should have been somewhat simple to longer.

    I believe we would go into no deal because of three things
    1. We really did not understand or value our relationship within the EU
    2. We believed because of the things we got out of the EU that our value both economically and politically was higher than in truth it is

    3. because we only speak English our politicians have even amongst the pro euro members not a deep enough understanding and amongst those that are ambivalent ac complete lack of understanding.

    What is also surprising is that the idea that a government that sends a person who basically said about the negotiation that we was going to get a deal by flying to Berlin and talking to Merkel (yes David Davis the person who was charged with negotiating a deal on our behalf) I would have presumed the UK was actually taking the p1ss.

    And in some ways I think we had such a lack of understanding that sometimes we acted like the Characters out of Fawlty towers and though of out opposite like they were characters in ‘Allo ‘Allo

    What worries me is that in some of the comments I still get that vibe and I am not sure a future relationship helps us.

  10. JiB

    “We joined a common market and ended up on a journey to a Federal Superstate.”

    Even if I accepted that exaggerated portrayal of the EU, it’s what you get for accepting the English constitutional principle of sovereignty residing in Parliament, not the people.

    As you see the powers of the Senedd progressively stripped away, without the consent of it or the people in Wales, you can observe a “Superstate” in action.

  11. PTRP

    You will be very welcome to visit, and we can annoy each other over a few pints.

    Would Guinness be a suitably neutral EU drink to consume?

  12. Given the number of mainland Europeans that can speak English, and given the attitudes of many of the English speakers across the Atlantic, I know which group I prefer.

  13. @OLDNAT

    As you know I am a Guinness and single malt whiskey drinker, larger not so much but I can’t stand tinned Guinness, I also like Murphy’s it is a bit creamier a little less bitter for a change but I suppose I am used to the Guinness taste.

    So the simple answer is f#@k neutrality a Pint of Guiness with a whiskey chaser suits me fine

    Dublin was pretty much heaven for me. As was Belfast surprisingly.

    I think you already proved my point. with your comments. As it is the person negotiating on our behalf is a bureaucrat and an elected politician he is negotiating with another bureaucrat both are being directed by rules and edicts provisioned by directly elected politicians in the coucil of ministers
    By your comment it is then clear that all the countries in the EU are vassal states however in your view is it because they pool their sovereignty? Is it because they have a bureaucrat do their bidding?
    I really want to understand why they are vassal states?

    Now you could argue that you do not want to pool your sovereignty that a valid argument but to define pool your sovereignty as a vassal state is not valid in any my view and points to the level of autism that I was talking about.

  14. PTRP

    Perhaps we could widen the geographic range of our EU consumption?

    Pints of Irish stout, with chasers of Polish Buffalo Grass vodka?

    Although I’m a coffee drinker, perhaps the occasional cup of Irish breakfast tea – Nambarries or Thomson’s to provide a link to the remnants of the UK in NI.

  15. GM

    Talking of front garden destruction, I visited my childhood home in Ruislip a few years back. My parents moved out 40 years ago. It used to have a beautiful medium length front garden – lawn, flower beds including a central rose bed, winding stone path, a James Greive apple tree, surviving and very large Christmas tree and a large pyracantha up the front of the house. All gone and paviored over.

    What I can’t understand is that the house has a garage, which my dad built, onto another road at the back. There’s a concrete hard standing beside the garage, which I laid and a drive with enough space for one car in front of the garage doors. So with space for three cars at the back, plus quiet on street parking too, why would you need a wide open soulless car park at the front?

    Oh and if you do change cars at Crewe please give me a shout and we can maybe visit the newly restored Offley Arms, saved from total closure by Joules Brewery and yet to reopen because of lockdown and Tier 3. You can savour the beautiful view over the pond and old mill, though I doubt they’ll have Guinness on draught.

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