An Ipsos-MORI poll in Saturday’s Sun has the Labour lead holding steady at CON 33%(-2), LAB 38%(-3), LDEM 15%(nc) – changes are from MORI’s regular poll last month, though the Sun choses to draw comparisons with a poll a month previously, presumably because it fits the story they’d like to tell better (their comparisons are quite odd actually – their article says “Another poll last month put Mr Brown’s lead when he became PM at six points – but figures comparable to our own had him at two”. The six point lead was the most recent MORI poll, using MORI’s normal methodology. So either it’s comparable to this poll or there’s something odd about this one. There was an ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror last month that gave Labour a two point lead, the lowest lead they recorded during July, but since that was a different pollster using a different methodology it isn’t comparable.)

Having been faced with flood and pestilence during his first weeks in office Brown was seen as the best man in a crisis by 69% of respondents, compared to only 10% for Cameron. While Cameron still led on having more personality than Brown, there are signs of a slight personal warming towards the new Prime Minister – 43% said they would rather share a pint with Brown compared to 41% who would rather share a pint with Cameron. The changes are within the margin of error, but for what it’s worth prior to Brown’s accession to the leadership Cameron held a meagre one point lead in the same question.

UPDATE: The poll also asked about the European treaty. There continues to be overwhelming support for a referendum on the treaty, 66% of people said they felt strongly that it should be ratified through a referendum, a further 15% tended in that direction. Only 17% were in favour of the decision being made by Parliament. Asked how they would vote in a referendum, the balance of opinion was against the treaty, but not overwhelmingly so – 55% of people were against, with 37% in favour. However only 31% of people said they were against the treaty and would definitely vote against it, a further 24% of people said they were against it, but could be persuaded to change their minds. 10% were definitely in favour and 27% were in favour, but could be pursuaded to vote in favour. Were there to be a referendum those opposed to the treaty would clearly start with the clear advantage, but there is potential for the vote to go either way.


Comments are closed.