Two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers. Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday had CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 6% (report here). Opinium in the Observer has CON 39%, LAB 42%, LDEM 5% (report here).

I expect rather more attention will be given to the poll from Opinium as the Labour lead is the first we’ve seen since July 2019. We’ve had a couple of polls showing the main parties neck-and-neck in recent weeks (there was another one yesterday from Redfield & Wilton, showing them both at 40%). Looking across the various polls it is clear that the two main parties were heading towards roughly equal levels of support and, therefore, normal margin of error was going to spit out a Labour lead soon enough.

The question is what impact this starts to have upon the political environment – assuming the pattern continues – voting intention polls this far out have little predictive value (4 years to go!), but do have an influence on how the parties are perceived to be doing by their own supporters, their own MPs and the media. It helps Keir Starmer to be seen as a winner, who has put the Labour party back into the lead. It risks doing the opposite for Boris Johnson, especially given one of his selling points to the Tory party was his popularity with the public.


5,650 Responses to “New voting intention polls from Opinium and Deltapoll”

1 111 112 113
  1. @Danny

    “Germany has respectably low deaths currently.”

    ——-

    I posted recently about how deaths are three times better in East Germany where they had the TB vaccine program.

  2. @Danny

    “thats what I mean: In the Uk the rich live ten years longer on average, something like that. They have general and clear health advantages.”

    ——

    But they have high obesity levels etc.

    I’ve pointed out how particular aspects of general health might be of particular benefit wrt. Covid. Biasing away from cytokine storms, ACE2 receptors, cross immunity etc.

    Plus maybe distancing, ventilation culture etc.

  3. @Danny

    “‘more or less’ did a comparison with italy based on measured addtional risk due to obesity and said had the Uk had the levels of obesity in italy, we would have expected a few thousand fewer deaths in the UK. Japan sounds rather better yet.”

    ——

    But I am not saying obesity is the only factor.

  4. @ ALEC – we all know you never admit you’re wrong but unsourced or cherry picked data then converted to a week when LG inform (the source you claim to be using) give weekly (7day) data is turbo BS even by your standards – desperate effort to show you are right about something when your totally wrong

    And then still digging when you’ve caught – how classic ALEC

    Anyway, do you agree to check LG inform on 10 Nov and see what the 7day numbers are for week ending 8 Nov? SW, England and Newcastle. Maybe get Mrs.A to help you work out %s

  5. @Danny

    “But what proportion of the general public also had vitamin D deficiency? (i would not rule out the possibiity it is also 80%, because it is high)”

    ——-

    Well I was going with the case Steve made about supposing generally high levels, and that even in that case, Covid patients tended nonetheless to have low levels.

  6. Peter
    While I would agree in part I would fundamentally disagree that the political constructs of nations have anything to do with local organising.

    They are normally imposed from above.

  7. carfrew,
    “But they often don’t mention that there’s evidence to suggest very low levels of antibody might still be protective”

    I am bugged by this generalised finding that antibodies frequently become detectable only after the event. How does an antibody response save you from illness if you body reaches peak levels months later? Its almost as if its a system to prevent reinfection rather than do the work of beating it off the first time.

    “Maybe, as Danny highlighted, the virus is intracellular, tries to hide from antibodies, so they aren’t that important as other defences etc.”

    antibodies might be quite useful to stop it spreading around the body to other organs while free in the blood. If it was never really attacking that way, just concentrating on moving cell to cell at the site of infection they wouldnt be so very useful. I think stuff like the practical mechanisms of how a virus particle can move about must be important. Bacteria can swim. Can viruses move around?

  8. It’s why I don’t consider myself other than by accident of birth affiliated to this or any country .
    There are placetd I would prefer to live, based on a range of factors including, freedoms, principles and the weather.
    But if for example despite the best efforts of the brexitoids to remove my freedoms to reside in Spain I am able to do so it won’t make me feel Spanish but it will certainly make me feel happier.

  9. @Danny

    “I am bugged by this generalised finding that antibodies frequently become detectable only after the event. How does an antibody response save you from illness if you body reaches peak levels months later? Its almost as if its a system to prevent reinfection rather than do the work of beating it off the first time.”

    ——

    It’s possibly an aspect. There may be numerous aspects. High vitamin D levels may bias toward more antibodies even if you don’t need them so much.

    This might still be useful as it may stop T cells being overactive and leading to cytokine storms.

    Antibodies can take a while to produce, maybe other immune defences have solved the problem by the time they kick in. But it wasn’t initially a given.

    Maybe your body wants them temporarily to provide some cross immunity in case something else invades at the same time.

  10. @Danny

    Yes, the virus is able to move around the body, and does invade other organs.

    How well it can move about I’m not sure. But it might be that with good defences, not much as T cells keep zapping it inside cells. With less good defences.

    It seems to particularly favour organs with those ACE2 receptors.

    https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-damages-other-organs.html

  11. JAMESE

    No, for me we left at the end of January this year, and hopefully our future course will be clear by the 31st December. If we leave with no deal then long term we should gain economically whilst suffering economic damage in the short term. If we remain in close to the EU then I expect our economy to decline as that of the EU declines.

    I cannot be any clearer.

    In the short term the economic effects will be almost impossible to quantify because of the effects of the pandemic on the economy. The timing of Brexit and the pandemic is unhelpful for clarity.

  12. Data nerds, stand by.

    UCL have issued a new public dashboard for covid that seeks to draw together all the available public data. The database is here – https://covid.i-sense.org.uk/superset/dashboard/covidred/
    with the Guardian report here – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/28/dashboard-designed-to-chart-englands-covid-19-response-finds-major-gaps-in-data

    Notable that the creators of the site say that there remain significant gaps in the data availability and quality.

    Key data issues highlighted is a lack of information on the number successfully isolating. Another key finding is “the lack of granular local data from NHS Test and Trace.” This is an issue that cropped up a while ago (@Bigfatron was interested in this, I recall) and despite the beliefs of some on here that such accusations were just local politicking from Labour councils, the issue is still not properly resolved.

    Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this is that it has taken an independent research team to do this. The government has been pumping out data across different departments and organisations, on different timescales and with different metrics, and no one has attempted until now to coordinate this into a coherent data presentation strategy.

    Anyway – enjoy the numbers….

  13. @ LASZLO – The constraint will IMO be staff, beds is simply an easier number to track as we receive data on that. This M.E.N. article highlighting the issue in NW Nightingale (opening this week)

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/nightingale-hospital-reopen-this-week-19176292

    Once, again, if you/others have useful info then please post. I’ve previously posted an inspired guess at the “levels” within “surge capacity” protocols as we start to hit capacity limit – based on info I’ve read, I’m not claiming to have any expertise on NHS issues

    1/ Start to postpone routine operations – local
    2/ Start to be selective on new admissions (eg Care Homes) – local
    3/ Possibly find ways to free up capacity but do not seed Care Homes – local

    Those three have some consequences of avoidable deaths, the backlog from #1 grew enormously in the Spring

    Then it’s starts to get into areas where staffing IMO becomes a problem. You can run overtime, etc but you’ll hit some issues with NHS staff themselves being in self-isolation

    4/ Open regional Nightingales (adds beds but shares staff) – regional
    5/ Start Triage protocols (as per NICE guidance) – regional
    6/ Start sending patients beyond local regions to areas of country with spare capacity – national

    Some of the ordering might be out or blur (eg #5 and #6 might switch is hospitals are quite close and then blur after that, but clearly we don’t want to be sending C19 patients from Manchester to hospitals in Kent)

    NB An inspired guess, sadly we’re likely to find out the numbers aspect as we start to run through 1-4 in NW.

    @ CARFREW – Thank you for the reply last night. I misunderstood your earlier post. Agree some legacy issues from lockdown1 might be a factor, I doubt they’d be huge and you’d have hoped folks would be aware of the obesity issue and don’t something about it (oh, wait, no – we live in a nappy state so why take any personal responsibility for ones own/family health)

    PS You’ll like this piece from DD:

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2020/10/david-davis-is-there-a-plan-b-on-covid-that-will-work-i-believe-that-there-is-namely-making-much-more-use-of-vitamin-d.html

    After our previous discussion I’m aware you don’t see it as a “magic bullet” and just something cheap, easy to provide and quite likely to make a difference – with every +ve difference being better than ‘do nothing’. IF that can be done whilst avoiding any Hancock “magic bullet” talk or -ve behavioural unintended consequences then sign me up, my concern not VitD itself but the “human” aspect (Hancock and gen.pub) -ves outweighting any +ve impact.

    However, with the “fear” level now pretty high maybe now is the time?

  14. OLDNAT

    The last remnants of Empire are slipping away.

    Really is there evidence that Gibraltar is breaking its links with the UK, if you have please let me see it. The last referendum on the subject was massively for staying with the UK, much bigger than the Scottish one. :-)

  15. @Trevs – “@ ALEC – we all know you never admit you’re wrong but unsourced or cherry picked data then converted to a week when LG inform (the source you claim to be using) give weekly (7day) data is turbo BS even by your standards – desperate effort to show you are right about something when your totally wrong.”

    Try to stop being such a noisy childish brat.

    I made it abundantly clear I was taking a selected period of the most recent four days, and converting these to an equivalent weekly rate, also stating that these could just be a temporary spike. That’s a pretty standard statistical approach to take if you want to know the latest rate of change in a fast changing scenario where data from seven days ago might be dragging down the average. I didn’t state my source, which I perhaps should have done, but the correct response to that would be along the lines of:

    “@Alec – where are you getting those figures from….?”

    Also, yes, we can look back at the data, but not on the 10th. To get a true picture you would need to wait until the provisional period has worked through, so more like the 13th.

    The point here is that when Ferguson said cases in the SW were rising by 7% a day a week or so back, with a doubling every 10 days or so, you said I was being silly projecting big case loads in the SW (again, unnecessarily disparaging about it). Now the LG Inform data is starting to show big increases. If Ferguson’s team is correct, then things could get quite nasty down there.

  16. @Trev

    “Thank you for the reply last night. I misunderstood your earlier post”

    ———

    Yes, I realised I had written my post somewhat ambiguously.

    I think we are in early days regarding determining effects of lockdown.

    Regarding nanny state, I find the matter complex. Helping people can have downsides. But not helping them can have downsides.

    It’s not the case that if you leave it to the individual, they will inevitably figure it out for themselves. However, assistance can also cause problems.

    It’s therefore about the right kind of help.

    Also, some think if they are doing well, that this is because their approach is superior. But it may be thatbthey judt happen to be living in a situation that suited them. And those situations can change.

    Meanwhile, there can be a problem with just leaving it to the State as we are currently seeing.

    Regarding Vit D, yes, not a magic bullet, just one of numerous things to consider. (Including other dietary things).

  17. thatbthey judt happen to be living = that they just happen to be living

  18. CARFREW
    @Steve

    Over 80 percent of COVID-19 patients have vitamin D deficiency, study finds

    Vitamin D deficiency was more prevalent in men
    Date:
    October 27, 2020

    FULL STORY

    “Over 80 percent of 200 COVID-19 patients in a hospital in Spain have vitamin D deficiency, according to a new study published in the Endocrine Society’s Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism.”

    October 28th, 2020 at 7:23 am
    —————–
    Wonder if they looked at the jobs these men did/do?
    All the factories I’ve worked in you barely see/saw sunlight…which leads us back to vitD.

  19. Merkel expected to press the 16 Federal States for nation wide close downs. She has said their Health Service could collapse before Christmas without further restrictions.
    France just had the highest daily death toll since April 22. Macron said to be considering national measures.
    The Flemish University in Brussels has said that the national curfew is unconstitutional & they compared it with WW2 occupation.
    Demonstrators in Turin & Milan threw petrol bombs & loorted shops -shouting “freedom”.

    all from THe Times.

    As this wtf attitude sweeps over Europe’s Liberal Democracies, the Freedom Lovers will be encouraged by the analysis in Critical Care Medicine Journal that in UK death rates in intensive care halved between March & June.

    Those of us who are aware that , in UK at that time, COVID patients in ICUs were more healthy & younger , than COVID patients in other wards will not be reassured.

  20. @ ALEC – “I made it abundantly clear I was taking a selected period of the most recent four days, and converting these to an equivalent weekly rate”

    Well it clearly wasn’t the most recent four days so that is a l!e and probably why you didn’t and still haven’t provided the source data – but I did

    So do you take issue with the data I provided give that I sourced it and it was actually the most recent? YES/NO

    So be honest, you cherry picked a few high days (not the most recent but fairly recent), multiplied that up to a week and thought you’d get away with that as supporting your l!es – just be honest, you l!ed and worse you now are exposing how you cheated and hoped to get away with it.

    Q: Do you think it is acceptable to cherry pick data, convert it into the more accepted form and pretend it makes you right? YES/ NO

    Worse, you even used LG Inform who present the 7day data – so there wasn’t even a need to cherry pick. You could have shown the 7day data – as I did.

    It is extremely obvious and transparent that you’re desperately trying to say you got an ALEC “prediction” right for once. You switched source last time and now you mis use the LG inform source.

    Keep digging if you like or maybe, just the once, admit you were wrong, you l!ed and cheated to try to make yourself look right and that your now talking total sh!te – just admit it.

  21. @Alec, ToH

    The question of Gibraltar is explored in this useful article:

    https://english.elpais.com/brexit/2020-07-29/gibraltar-seeks-to-keep-eu-ties-after-brexit-transition-ends.html

    I don’t think there is any chance of Gibraltar breaking its links with the UK, but the issue – as with N Ireland – is the extent to which the brexit process is putting pressure on those links and hitherto rock-solid loyalty.

  22. @Steve

    “Wasn’t ruling out anything.
    As it happens am and always have been a strong proponent for the benefits in relation to improved immune response provided by vitamin D.”

    ——

    Though you did note high levels of vitamin D generally and conclude “who the f knows”. As if the high levels generally countered the Vit D thing.

    I was pointing out that despite high levels geverally, you can’t in fact rule out vitamin D, because it seems Covid patients have vitamin D issues.

  23. They are getting a bit fed up in Spain too:-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3puXFnSFWxY

  24. @Steve

    “Spain does have an above average level of obesity but it also has the highest life expectancy in the world and has consistently been in the top three for 10 years.

    It seems highly likely that it’s the obesity factor that is so relevant and would go some way to explain the disparity between the rates in the two countries with the highest life expectancies in the world.”

    ———

    Yes, if a country has high life expectancy generally but not so good Covd outcomes, that suggests there might be stuff specific to Covid going on, as Danny suggests.

    Obesity may be a factor, but it makes sense to consider all potential factors.

    If 80% of patients in the Spanish hospitals have Vit D issues, one wouldn’t want to ignore that either.

    Or how East Germany has much lower deaths than West Gernany and a TB vaccination program. Etc.

    The fact it might be a complex of things might cause some despair, in that it might frustrate attempts to make things simple and boil it down to a single thing.

    On the plus side, it may mean there are a variety of protective things one can do.

  25. @Trevs – “It is extremely obvious and transparent that you’re desperately trying to say you got an ALEC “prediction” right for once.”

    Trevs, it really is time to grow up a little. How can I say I got a prediction right or wrong when it hasn’t even happened yet? Doh!

    Have a few more shreddies and tootle on your angry way.

  26. …………and in Germany :-

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thousands-protest-against-covid-19-rules-in-berlin/a-55392704

    Did someone once say the behavioural science was wrong on lockdown fatigue?

    The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party will be nodding inscrutably as they marvel at the indisciplined Liberal West’s headlong dive into chaos & economic decline.

  27. @Colin – “Did someone once say the behavioural science was wrong on lockdown fatigue?”

    Some of us did, six months ago. Circumstances do change!

    I think there is no question that people are weary and frightened now, and some are angry.

    We were lulled into a false sense of security over the summer months.

  28. @ CARFREW – Confucius said:

    “Give a man[1] a fish, and you’ll feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you’ve fed him for a lifetime”

    The “Collective” agree (although we need to avoid over fishing it is a good natural source of VitD) and would offer a C21 rephrasing:

    “Give a person a handout for a day and you’ll be giving them handouts for their entire lifetime”

    That is a general term. Note a hand up is different to a handout – we approve of “Level Up”, full employment, etc. We just want the jobs to be the better jobs, higher skilled (and higher taxes), etc and certainly do not want to “Level Down” those that are doing well (although plucking a few more feathers from the Golden Geese provided they don’t fly away is something we’ll need to do)

    HMG’s role then becomes the “Level Up” helping hand, not the push them down, make them dependent and relient on the state hand (a self full filling downward spiral that sadly we’ve slipped into, with C19 making it worse).

    HMG also create the “enabling environment” and help with best practise (eg poss use of VitD if that is a “best practise”) using light but assertive regulation if/when required. The resources of the State are reserved for areas and times where the individual/family/private sector is not efficient or needs short-term genuine “help”. It provides a safety net to catch those who need it (not want, need). Two parts to Marx phrase and neither side of that ‘equation” states “wants” – folks need to provide according to their abilities[2] and the state only provides according to needs. If one side becomes “wants” or the provision side flies off to a tax haven then the equation fails and we sink lower (Levelling down to lower depths as we go)

    A wider more general reply adding on to thoughts in an @ JJ from y’day. CON HMG need to cut the umbilical cord on the nappy state of dependency, although mid-crisis I appreciate that the best we can do for now is to not encourage a larger “nappy state” (ie don’t sink lower before we start climbing out).

    [1] We’ve gone WOKE so avoid using “man” in sayings. Confucius was clearly a sex!st pig and any statues of him should be pulled down ;)

    [2] Let’s bust the absurd Usain Bolt analogy as well. 1 in 7 billion can become Usain Bolt. Maybe 1 in 7 million have that potential. For 99.9999% of people they can run for exercise, compete locally, etc but it is not a career choice. By age 16-18 you’d know if your the next Usain Bolt or not (probably a lot younger than that but at age 16-18 you need to start making most life choices for yourself – such as don’t do a sh!t Uni course that will get you 50k in debt with cr4p career prospects)

    More generally, some folks are very academically “intelligent” and Uni and a career in something like research, etc is where they are most effective (individually and for society). You then folks that are very “good with their hands” who can make an excellent career in the trades with vocational skills training (benefitting themselves and society).

    In all cases a strong work ethic, the “carrot” of keeping a decent share of one’s own success and the “stick” of avoiding prolonged need of welfare (where possible) will improve individual and societal achievement and more taxes to help those who need helping/levelling up.

    Instead in a “nappy state” we encourages laziness, feed jealousy, strive to “level down” and create cradle-grave dependency – the LoC “dystopia” of a nation of folks suffering from Stockholm Syndrome and a vicious circle to doom.

    Break the chain!

  29. Alec.

    I think the whole point of behavioural Science’s view on Lockdown Fatigue was that they could envisage that change ,and not be linked into complacency based on last Spring.

  30. @ ALEC – I take it you’ve now accepted you l!ed and deliberately misrepresented LG inform data on SW and that you agree we can use w/ending 8Nov LG inform data to check your predictive powers on SW.

    Let’s chat again on 10Nov (ish) then ;)

  31. FFS stop asking the Government what sort of Christmas you can have.!

    How tf do they know?

    Make your mind up _do you want to help _ or do you just want to carry on as usual?????

  32. @Trevs – “@ ALEC – I take it you’ve now accepted you l!ed and deliberately misrepresented LG inform data on SW..”

    No – I’m asking you to grow up, and to take a day off from being a complete [email protected] just once in a while. I mean, it must be exhausting.

  33. TOH

    I didn’t say Gibraltar (one of the last outposts of Empire) was “breaking away”, but “slipping away”.

    People who are being forced to leave a Union that they find is beneficial to them, because folk in another country wanted to leave it, are likely to find that their emotional links to that other country are put under increasing strain.

  34. Colin

    “FFS stop asking the Government what sort of Christmas you can have.!
    How tf do they know?”

    Your exasperation at these kind of questions exactly matches my own.

    This is a compliment. :-)

  35. The Other Howard

    Just highlighting the fact that you’ve made quite a large adjustment to your prediction of the effects of our leaving the EU over the past 3-4 years. Compare and contrast:

    March 2017

    “..there will be a short term downturn while we go through the Brexit process….once we have left I expect investment and GDP growth to boom such that the short term downsides to our economy will be forgotten in very short time.”

    October 2020

    “f we leave with no deal then long term we should gain economically whilst suffering economic damage in the short term. ”

    I’d agree that the effects of Covid will still be felt in 2021, but your prediction was of ‘short term’ damage to the economy during the leaving process – not after we have left, let alone for years after.

  36. Colin – think the problem n the spring was that 10-14 days delay led not only to more excess deaths but also to 3-4 weeks delay in relaxation.

    The behavioural fatigue concerns then meant we relaxed when at level 4 still (not level 3 like the Government had previously stated would apply).

    Error compounding error and it is not captain hindsight stuff as Ireland went earlier than us by up to 2 weeks and, whilst calculating is impossible, have probably had fewer/shorter restrictions in the last 7 months than the UK.

    Shaking hands in early March was frankly reckless.

  37. @James E / ToH

    I’d add that TOH has just stated emphatically that he regards “our leaving the EU” to have occurred on 31 Jan, so we are now 9 months into the period when he said “I expect investment and GDP growth to boom such that the short term downsides to our economy will be forgotten in very short time.”

    No such boom in investment and GDP growth has occurred, and there was no evidence of it even before covid intervened.

  38. colin,
    “Merkel expected to press the 16 Federal States for nation wide close downs. She has said their Health Service could collapse before Christmas without further restrictions.”

    curious that given its much vaunted status and their death rate is a lot lower than ours.

    “As this wtf attitude sweeps over Europe’s Liberal Democracies, the Freedom Lovers will be encouraged by the analysis in Critical Care Medicine Journal that in UK death rates in intensive care halved between March & June.
    Those of us who are aware that , in UK at that time, COVID patients in ICUs were more healthy & younger , than COVID patients in other wards will not be reassured.”

    The age profile in hospital rather depends on the age profile out of hospital, and we simply dont know what that is. Now or previously.

    Alec,
    “I think there is no question that people are weary and frightened now, and some are angry. We were lulled into a false sense of security over the summer months.”

    Dont you mean some of us are furious this rubbush has gone on far fr beyonf the point it is funnty and should have been resolving by now. As per Sweden. (or better Japan if we just needed to up the vitamin D. A horrendous outcome for government would be to confirm taking daily vit D might have slashed the death rate)

    Jim Jam,
    “The behavioural fatigue concerns then meant we relaxed when at level 4 still (not level 3 like the Government had previously stated would apply). ”

    ‘there’s no money left’

  39. Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day…teach a man to fish and his wife will rarely see him again.

    Give a man a hand out and he has the chance to get back on his feet, give him nothing and he probably never will!

    Peter.

  40. ON.

    To us both ?

  41. Jim Jam.

    I think that is too pat.
    Far too easy.

    Sorry.

  42. Maybe Colin but bad timing and inappropriate signals (handshakes plus Jenrick/Cummings) have been a feature of this Governments stewardship.

  43. @Colin – “I think that is too pat.
    Far too easy.”

    But it doesn’t mean it isn’t true.

    The worse the situation gets now, the more appealing the idea of a short circuit breaker in September, followed by further short circuit breakers through the winter as appropriate, will seem.

  44. JIM JAM

    Yes I agree that messaging has been poor.

    But I think that it is wishfull & convenient thinking to believe that there was a sweet spot in time when the virus would have been supressed, just before everyone got fed up with the personal inconvenience of the suppression.

    It was always going to happen that in Liberal Western Democracies Lockdown fatigue would occur.
    It was and still is ( imo) entirely predictable that a second wave would ocurr-ergo compliance & suppression would diminish.
    It emerged very quickly from data that the young are FAR less at risk than the old. This was immediately, and still is going to exacerbate non-compliance.

    ………but to be clear-has the Government made mistakes ?-YES. Have there been avoidable deaths ? YES.

    ……is this the case across Europe ? YES.

  45. Alec,
    “The worse the situation gets now, the more appealing the idea of a short circuit breaker in September,”

    lginfom Manchester cases static. hastings cases static. All England numbers, hard to say. This most recent weekly ‘M’ started with a healthy leap, but also looks to have had a healthy fall as the week progressed. So it could still end lower than it started. Which probably imdicates a variety of different things happening in different places.

    from king’s app, they have england on R=1.1, with all individual regions 1.1 except SE 1.3, sw 1.3 and ,midlands 1.2. Despite this their estimated case numbers have actually fallen from yesterday in NE NW, SE, midlands and overall for England and Scotland. East, london and SW slight rises.

  46. Colin – my point is that the necessary compliance window was longer than it needed to be and (as the suppression route is the one chosen) meaningful behavioural fatigue occurred earlier in the cycle than it should have done.

    That the Government said we would not ease while in level 4 and then did due to pressure is on the record. Hence my error compounded by more errors.

    It seems not going for an September Circuit Break (many reasons suggested why) could be another example.

    The desire imo to seen to be only doing something when they have no choice rather than taking early decisive action has been a failure to lead.

    I might add that the Economic damage is more due to these errors also as over a 12 month period to next Easter more constraints will be necessary than ought to have been required.
    A stich in time saves nine is an idiom for a reason.

  47. JIM JAM

    You clearly have it nicely explained & reconciled.

    Im not going to swap timelines and the ever changing “science” with you. Or try to find a pair of rear facing specs.

    I have nothing to add to my previous response.

    AWs new thread seems to suggest that “did as well as the could in the circumstances” is a not insignificant strand of opinion.

    And I can understand that if one takes a step back to survey the situation in Europe right now. But sharing a disaster with others cuts no ice politically in the end & the politics will look after itself.

    That apart I feel sure we can agree on a fervent desire that an effective & safe vaccine emerges before the economic damage is really serious and before people start looting and arson in this country too.

    Next March is my deadline. No serious solution or mitigation by then and-as I said-the Chinese will be rubbing their hands with glee.

  48. 10,000 new cases and 40 deaths in India today, a country of 1.5 billion. Deaths per million: 87. Why is no-one looking at them?

  49. Thanks Colin,

    To the new thread then.

  50. jim jam,
    “That the Government said we would not ease while in level 4 and then did due to pressure is on the record. Hence my error compounded by more errors.”

    Before that, surely they said the purpose of lockdown was simply to flatten the peak. So then saying actually they had changed their minds/l!ed and really they werent going to release at all might have started the rot? Broke faith from the very start? Sage told them not to do that?

    “I might add that the Economic damage is more due to these errors also as over a 12 month period to next Easter more constraints will be necessary than ought to have been required.”

    The benchmark is this could have been over last summer. So not terribly amused on the financial side, myself.

    colin,
    ” before the economic damage is really serious …”

    it already is. But no one is talking yet.

1 111 112 113

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)