Two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers. Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday had CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 6% (report here). Opinium in the Observer has CON 39%, LAB 42%, LDEM 5% (report here).

I expect rather more attention will be given to the poll from Opinium as the Labour lead is the first we’ve seen since July 2019. We’ve had a couple of polls showing the main parties neck-and-neck in recent weeks (there was another one yesterday from Redfield & Wilton, showing them both at 40%). Looking across the various polls it is clear that the two main parties were heading towards roughly equal levels of support and, therefore, normal margin of error was going to spit out a Labour lead soon enough.

The question is what impact this starts to have upon the political environment – assuming the pattern continues – voting intention polls this far out have little predictive value (4 years to go!), but do have an influence on how the parties are perceived to be doing by their own supporters, their own MPs and the media. It helps Keir Starmer to be seen as a winner, who has put the Labour party back into the lead. It risks doing the opposite for Boris Johnson, especially given one of his selling points to the Tory party was his popularity with the public.


5,655 Responses to “New voting intention polls from Opinium and Deltapoll”

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  1. Test2

  2. Seems there is a row brewing over leaking of Lockdown plans to the press on Friday night. Seems possible they might bring announcements forward from Monday

  3. Test3

  4. i am not aware of evidence that Corbyn was consciously or unconsciously racist. I do think, however, that can be accused of a) lack of empathy and b) stubbornness. Because he was convinced that he was not racist, he couldn’t understand how anyone might interpret his actions in that light unless they were politically motivated. I was equally amazed when a friend who is a very balanced Jewish former professor of biochemistry called Corbyn a ‘sh1t’, a word I had never heard in the use in over 60 years of our friendship. It seemed to me an extraordinary judgement but I could see there was a problem to be addressed and I don’t think Corbyn could or apparently can.

  5. Think the problem for Corbyn was that he made comments such as he felt happiest being in a mosque.

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