Recent voting intention figures continue to show a moderate Conservative lead of between 6 and 9 points. Voting intention polls published so far this month are:

YouGov/Times (5th Aug) – CON 42, LAB 36, LD 8
Redfield & Wilton (12th Aug) – CON 43, LAB 36, LD 9
Ipsos MORI/Standard (4th Aug) – CON 45, LAB 37, LD 6
Survation (3rd Aug) – CON 44, LAB 35, LD 8

While the media narrative around the government’s handling of the Corona outbreak has turned far more negative, the polling suggests the public are still quite evenly split. So in the latest Ipsos MORI monitor 42% think the government have handled the outbreak well, 40% badly.

Keir Starmer continues to poll positively. His satisfaction rating from MORI is plus 22, by 38% to 24% people think he has what it takes to be a good PM. In YouGov’s regular “best PM” question Starmer led Johnson by 34 to 32% last week – the first time the Labour leader has been in the lead since a single poll straight after the 2017 election. Starmer apparently polling more positively than Labour is an interesting dynamic. MORI have (or used to have) a nice tracker question asking if people like the leader, like the party, both or neither. Over the last couple of decades people have consistently liked the Labour party more than they’ve liked its leaders. I don’t think they’ve asked it yet of Starmer, but all other other polling suggests we may find ourselves in the unusual position of having a Labour leader who is more popular than their party. A different question is to what extent this is because Starmer appeals to the public more than his predecessors, and to what extent it’s a sign that the Labour party’s own brand has been tarnished.

Immigration has started to sneak up the political agenda again, presumably on the back of coverage of migrant boats in the English Channel. YouGov’s weekly tracker on the most important issue facing the country has immigration spiking up 9 points to 29%, though health, the economy and Brexit remain the dominant issues. The Ipsos MORI issues index shows it significantly lower – up 3 points to only 9% – but the fieldwork for that is a little older (conducted 31st Jul-5th Aug), so may have concluded before the story really hit headlines.

The week there was also a new YouGov poll of Scotland. Voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament election next year were SNP 57%, CON 20%, LAB 14%, LDEM 8% for the constituency vote, SNP 47%, CON 21%, LAB 14%, LD 7%, GRN 6%. Translated into seats this would likely give the SNP a solid overall majority despite the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system.

That would increase the chances of another independence referendum in the near future. The same poll found that by 44% to 41% people thought there should be a referendum in the event the SNP win a majority, and that as things stand people would vote yes. 45% of people they would vote yes, 40% no. Removing won’t votes and don’t knows, that translates to Yes 53%, No 47%. Tabs for the Scottish polling are here.


4,856 Responses to “Polling round up – August 2020”

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  1. Shevii

    “I’ve finally found a vegan cheese that actually tastes like cheese- ironically Morrissons own brand! ”

    One of those really useful nuggets of information i get occasionally as a reward for persistently lurking on UKPR… Will go straight down and get some. Any particular flavour? (though tasting is believing!)

  2. “One of those really useful nuggets of information i get occasionally as a reward for persistently lurking on UKPR… Will go straight down and get some. Any particular flavour? (though tasting is believing!)”

    ——

    Lol, I immediately made a note of it too. And I’m not even vegan. Thanks Shevii!

  3. Ooh, new thread

  4. @Danny

    Your examples are not relevant, diggers and the construction industry generally are responsive to supply and demand, people aren’t. UK adults are not going to be having more or less babies based on what is or isn’t getting built.

    Engineers don’t just come into being because something is being built or disappear if it’s not.

  5. In terms of the latest 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000
    Sweden is less than Denmark, about the same as Norway and more than Finland
    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

    In terms of GDP growth, from the latest second quarter figures Sweden’s GDP fell by 8.6%, Norway by 6.3%, Finland by 4.9% and Denmark by 7.4%

    When you factor in the fact that Sweden has been 5 and 12 times the death rate of it’s neighbours I do wonder why we look to Sweden as an example to follow and not their neighbours

    In reality all those countries have relatively low population densities and should have had lower levels of fatalities than us. The fact Sweden has done in relative terms so bad, should be seen as a warning and not an example to follow

  6. @JJ

    Sorry to out pedant you, but in English usage, Scandinavia can also sometimes just refer more narrowly to the Scandinavian Peninsula, or conversely more broadly to include Finland, Iceland, the Åland Islands and the Faroe Islands, Finland. Therefore in English its not necessarily incorrect to say that Finland is part of Scandinavia. I would assume the Finn’s desire not to be seen as Scandinavian themselves may be in part be due to the fact that in the early modern historical period they were subject to Swedish rule. I dare say after Scotland gains its Independence many Scots will have a similar view in relation to the term Britain, even it it is used in a geographic manner rather than a political/cultural one.

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