A new poll for the Scottish Daily Mail by Scottish Opinion suggests a surge in support for the SNP. General voting intention figures for Holyrood (the poll asked only how people would vote in a Holyrood election, not how they would vote in the constituency and regional sections. Were CON 8%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, SNP 48%.

UKPolling Report is still unsure exactly how much weight to give Scottish Opinion polls – we don’t have details of their methodology and during the campaign for the Scottish Parliament they managed to produce some wildly volatile figures, presenting polls showing a 3 point Labour lead and 12 point SNP lead within weeks of each other. The 48% figure for the SNP seems very high indeed. There is, however, other polling evidence to suggest the SNP are enjoying a more modest lead in the polls. A previous YouGov poll carried out for the SNP around the same time as Brown became Labour leader also suggested a boost in SNP support – it found CON 14%, LAB 31%, LDEM 12%, SNP 38% in the constituency vote and CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, SNP 33%, Green 7%, SSP 5% in the regional list vote.

The giant SNP lead is not, however, reflected in support for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Opinion poll also found 31% of respondents approved of independence, but 49% disapproved.


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