Update

Apologies for the lack of posts – there has, of course, been plenty of regular polling on public attitudes towards the coronavirus, notably from YouGov, Opinium and Ipsos MORI… I can’t quite bring myself to dive into it though.

This week there was also the regular Welsh political barometer, ably dissected by Roger Awan-Scully here.


5,294 Responses to “Update”

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  1. @ TOBYEBERT – No one dies of “old age” anymore, at least not on the info put down on a death certificate. You do of ‘something(s)’ and often “with” a bunch of other stuff as well (eg C-19 or dementia)

    England has done “less bad” on Care Homes than others but “less bad” is still bad. However, the issue is more complex than just removing suspected/actual infected C-19 folks from Care Homes.

    1/ By the time a resident is suspected/actual infected then you’d be locking the door after the horse has bolted (eg if a staff member/other had passed it to you then 5ish days later when you know about it (and would test +ve) then most of the Care Home would probably have caught it anyway)

    2/ If it is “end of life” care then Care Homes are used to that. If you have dementia or similar then being taken to hospital is going to be very scary (although from what I understand we’ll see more “hospital staff” moving to treat in Care Homes – which is the “better” way to do it, if you have skilled and spare NHS staff to help where the help is most needed)

    As COLIN mentioned earlier the main thing to avoid is C-19 getting into the Care Home in the first place (eg a resident coming back out of hospital or untrained staff coming and going every day, especially if they don’t have PPE and we’re not regularly screening them in a cycle that matches shift patterns to reduce risk – see ICL Report #16)

    We need to do better but just shipping any and all suspected/actual infectious old folks of Care Homes and into hospital is not the answer (would probably do a lot more harm for negligible good)

    PS Sweden are addressing the dementia issue in a way that is worth England/others considering. They are shipping out serious dementia patients from current Care Homes to specialised new Care Homes and the ‘cocooning’ the new home. That would be unsettling for some residents for sure but many moons ago the concept of using “campus” style unis as “isolation towns” was floated. Maybe we need to blow the dust of that idea and iron out the practical and “civil liberty” issues. Loads of the 750k volunteer army that could be DBS checked and would be happy to do a 3weeks on, 3weeks off shift in say Bath or Guildford uni (provided they open a “staff” bar of course!!). You’d have to self-isolate quarantine on the way in and be tested but better to do that going into a “green zone” than the daft ‘political placebo’ of testing folks coming into UK from a low infection zone when UK is higher!?!?
    (whatever… if it makes folks “happy” fine, do it)

  2. @Bardini

    Looking at the active Scottish cases trend, it took 42 days to go from 1 (known) to 4,003 (known), and it took 27 days to get from that peak to current known active cases of 2,638 (-1,365).

    This could suggest that it would take approx. 53 days to get to known active cases of zero.

    Which would suggest 1st July if lockdown continues.

  3. ON – I look forward to Joanna Cherry and Kier Starmer agreeing DEVO MAX.

  4. @Steve – “The concept that UK domestic tourist market would double while cv19 measures were in place is risible.”

    That isn’t what I said.

    CV19 is going to savage the UK tourism industry. A 14 quarantine on inbound travelers probably won’t, and will be far more likely to increase trade – if CV19 is under control.
    You are misinterpreting what I am saying.

    The fundamental point is that the assertion from the in bound tourism representative I just heard on R4 (which bizarrely went completely unchallenged) that tourism is the third biggest UK export sector is just plain wrong, wrong, wrong. It’s a net importer, because far more money goes out than comes in.

    So if we get CV19 under control, so parts of the industry can reopen, but we maintain the border quarantine to prevent re-infection, then the UK tourist sector could reasonably expect to experience a very fast recovery, because 447m tourism nights created by UK citizens flying overseas would potentially be there for UK providers to market to.

    Like I say, the fundamental point is that the country loses massively from tourism in terms of the trade deficit, so a temporary border quarantine has a potential benefit.

  5. @TW

    1/ Small risk of catching C-19 x very long time period[1] = X
    (eg 0.3% x 365 days = above 1, most Care Homes and folks that aren’t properly shielding will get it eventually)

    That’s not quite right. If you assume that the probability of someone uninfected catching covid on a given day is 0.003, then the probability that they will not catch covid is .997, so the probability that they will not catch covid over a whole year (365 days) is .997^365 = 0.33. Hence the probability of catching covid over a year is 0.67 << above 1. Over time the probability of having been infected at least once will approach 1 asymptotically.

    It is rather like exponential growth (R) slowing as more of the population have been infected; each day the pool of susceptible (i.e. uninfected) people gets smaller.

  6. @Alec

    The downside being that the roads will be awash with caravans…

  7. @Statgeek – thanks , interesting.

    I would guess that the slow decline in case numbers is partly attributable to the quantity of testing, so it may accelerate quicker from now on.

    That’s of course if we are not invaded by inward tourism from other regions where they have higher incidence, as it seems unlikely anyone is going to be going abroad on holiday any time soon.

  8. @ LL – “Expected Return” maths as once C-19 gets into an individual care home you are into “Expected Returns”. That is the cold maths of the Grim Reaper’s harvest on a per home basis.

    He just needs to get “lucky” once for each Care Home, the Care Home needs to be “lucky” every day that C-19 still lurks in the community and staff are coming+going in/out of their home.

    Hence the %s were akin to his daily lottery ticket, with 1yr picked as a guess for the time until a vaccine is available and 90days still a possible time period for the other option.

    For elderly individuals/couples “shielding” in their own/relatives home then fully agree your maths.

    PS I wonder if Scots will be looking at Chernobyl for their next holiday? I’m not sure what the half-lives of those radioactive materials are without looking them up but that was a long time ago…

    Now the R for C-19 isn’t a “constant” but.. well… not my polity.

  9. The gardeners here who grow tatties won`t be pleased with the forecasts for the next two nights.

    But I cannot fault Nick Miller giving the R4 forecast just now; not a wasted word in his 1-minute-plus slot, and he was logical and probably accurate. What he said corresponds with the local Met Office detailed hourly forecast for the next two days.

    In contrast we have that disgraceful forecaster Tomasz Schafenacker still in action, with vague meanderings “most people will get…” “in some parts of the country”. If he ever gets specific for our region, then a check on our Met Office forecast shows he is wrong – one of his problems is that he doesn`t know where northern and eastern Scotland forecast areas are.

    TS was sacked by the BBC in 2010 and they should never have let him back on – weather forecasts aren`t comedy shows.

  10. @Colin

    the homes could be protected. This is something that we could have done”

    Indeed.

    Something the MHS appears to have wilfully disregarded
    —————————————————————————————————-Yes – but I should probably have qualified my original comment. Protecting care homes properly requires PPE and testing, both of which were in short supply. So the over-riding priority became to protect the NHS which probably took the lion’s share of what was going.

    I suspect a similar effect in our guidance. If you look at the NICE guidance on treatment at home, it is heavily qualified by the need to avoid direct contact with medical staff and surprisingly preoccupied with end of life care, DNRs, not sending people to hospital when they were not going to benefit and quietening anxieties with diazepam and the like.
    So one strand of the ‘preserve the NHS’ at all costs was, deliberately or otherwise, to let people die at home. And in many cases home turned out to be an old person’s home.

    I suspect that if and when there comes an inquiry, the ministers will say ‘ we had to follow the advice’ and the scientists and doctors will say ‘our advice had to be given within the policy and resource constraints of the time.’ That is for then. The immediate problem is to stop this carnage which otherwise will provide an ever increasing proportion of our excess deaths..

  11. It’s really hard to make sense of the new cases stats partly because the govt are using two different bases for counting: ‘new cases’ is the number of new cases confirmed today, i.e. the number of new positive tests reported by testers to the stats team, often with a fair few days’ delay..

    Whereas the testing volume is the volume of tests carried out or sent out on that day.

    So there is minimal correlation between the number of tests carried/sent out and the number of test for which results have been reported today, which is the denominator we really want for positive tests reported to assess the proportion of tests showing as positive.

    Presumably the govt has these statistics, but is not putting them into the public domain?

  12. @ LL – However, I didn’t explain it very well first time and not sure I did much better the 2nd time. I shouldn’t have combined Care Home ‘cocoons’ and ‘at home shielding’ in the 1st effort as if they were the same thing.

  13. Summerjohn,

    l think I should distance myself from any assertions about triage and how the elderly dying in the community is affecting hospital survival numbers. What I was saying is I don’t think that is an effect that will have changed much over time. I have very limited knowledge of this though so don’t give this too much weight.

    I would absolutely agree that getting CV in 6 months time is likely to be significantly less risky than it is now. If not the coming winter flu season with Covid will be horrific. But I fully expect serious progress by then. If the lockdown delays people getting covid. That will save lives because learning is happening.

    Trev
    Broadly agree with your comments on ventilators and the ever increasing risk of indirect deaths. Fwiw , my own hospitals ICU death rate is around 30pc, similar to the Germany figures. I infer that Germany are likely choosing to put patients on ventilators slightly earlier than the UK currently is

    As for why the world hasn’t agreed on best treatments. It takes time to produce solid peer reviewed publications. They are coming through, but there are lots of elements that there is not consensus on. Different countries have different facilities, expertise etc. In my experience it’s challenging to get a handful of consultants a single department to agree on any given subject. As for getting a whole country or the whole world to agree. Good luck with that. Healthcare has a way to go to be as evidence based as I think it should be. But in the UK this has improved enormously over the last 20years in my expt.

    Certainly its true that as time goes on the indirect deaths will become an ever increasing issue. How you change the perceptions about hospital safety I don’t know. High on the list of reasons given for turning down appointments/treatments is not wanting to travel to the hospital. Personally I think it’s a bit bonkers not to have potentially life saving treatments to avoid a tube journey. As lockdown is released tube journey will become a greater risk, but I would wager the public will view them as less risky! But I am not allowed to call patients bonkers, even when they clearly are!

    Back to the grind tomorrow for me so I will probably pipe down for a few days

  14. Jim Jam

    Before any party leaders (existing or putative) can agree on a policy, they need to agree on the details.

    Having an accurate conceptual description of “DEVO MAX” would help. Especially from outwith Scotland there is a tendency to assume that “DEVOlution” is an acceptable concept at all, as opposed to the sovereign right of a sub-state Parliament to exercise its powers in a Federal, or a Confederal state.

    Then there is the question of which powers would be exercised (in either constitutional structure) at the sub-state level, so “MAX” isn’t a very useful description, but then the term “DEVO MAX” tends to be used in a fairly incoherent way. The examples of the Faroes and Greenland may be reasonable starting points to look at “MAX”, but then neither of them have this unique formulation of “DEVO” that Labour created at the end of the previous millenium

    Add to that, the question of whether there is any validity in the governance of England being conjoined to the governing institutions of the UK – leading to many of the confusions that have been made more obvious during the Covid crisis. Is that situation acceptable to the currently devolved nations?

  15. Ian H

    “If the lockdown delays people getting covid. That will save lives because learning is happening.”

    Not that I have any of your expertise, but that seems to be a very realistic aspect.

    My parents had HBP before the effective drugs that I get were available. Consequently, I have lived for more years than them. Not an exact parallel, but makes a similar point.

  16. ON
    “Add to that, the question of whether there is any validity in the governance of England being conjoined to the governing institutions of the UK…”

    I’ve wondered why there isn’t an English Grand Committee in the HoC. It’d be pointlessly expensive to set up a separate institution.

  17. @ IANH – Fully agree that for folks to not go to hospital for treatment would be bonkers but if someone views the risks of each option different to the reality then they are making a decision that would seem rationale to them.

    I note some “fatigue” might be setting in in parts of London. A small protest today and Police, Coast Gaurd, etc have been much more active

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/police-losing-battle-lockdown-breaches-picnics-hackney-east-london-a4436226.html

    The weather is about to change so possibly a bit of a “one off” but when the advice changes to allow more outside activity, some more shops are allowed open, etc and as daily deaths continue to drop then it is unrealistic to expect the currently very high levels of adherence to be maintained.

    I think London will be OK but I’m very worried about SWest England which will have very low immunity, has an elderly population and will becoming a temptation too hard for too many to resist as we head into Summer.

    We govern and police by consent and we don’t want to lose the consent.

  18. The British Geriatric society has also issued guidance on how to deal with Covid-19 in Care homes

    https://www.bgs.org.uk/resources/covid-19-managing-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-care-homes

    As with the NICE guidance it seems to me to have far too little too much to say about how to get the elderly to go gentle into that good night, and far too little to say about how to keep them in the daylight a good bit longer. Or is it my age making me paranoid?

  19. delete first ‘too little’!

  20. Test

  21. Conga (outdoor exercise) with 2m spacing

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/grappenhall-conga-social-distancing-warrington-ve-day-a4436201.html

    75th anniversary of VE day and no “rules” were broken. “Shaming” these kind of people for a bit of safe fun is more likely to build up resentment than adherence, especially if folks start calling the police to intervene if, in their opinion, someone is a COVIDiot.

    It wouldn’t be too difficult for the residents of that street to work out who the “grass” was.

  22. Ah, I’m free. I’ve tried a variety of expurgated posts on the joys or otherwise of cycling and been auto-modded into oblivion on every one of them!

    Thought it must be me, hence the “Test” message, but I now assume it was something to do with my rather eccentric views on saddle shapes and sizes!

    :-)

  23. Ian H “If the lockdown delays people getting covid. That will save lives because learning is happening.”

    You are assuming we get a vaccine. The reality is we haven’t got one so we will see repeated lockdowns, more dead until everyone reaches immunity level – 65% or so, then it will die away. Some countries will get there sooner than others – and thus future outbreaks will pass them by without lockdowns, others will be the victim of repeated outbreaks until they level up.

    Without the vaccine, some countries with a higher death rate will get to immunity earlier, others with a lower death rate will take longer to get there suffering more outbreaks, but get there they will.

    At the end of this years into the future, without a vaccine, everyones death rate will be roughly the same.

    The bottom line is nature always wins. Always.

  24. @leftie-liberal

    Someone else who agrees with you.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1626/rr-0

  25. No Andrew, I am assuming no vaccine. What I am assuming is significant improvements in treatment of symptomatic cases. Vaccine will take a long time, if ever, as I said in my earlier post. If we get one great, but it’s crazy to plan a response based on assuming we get one.

  26. Deaths in a care home setting are less upsetting than the same number would be in an’ ICU.

  27. Trev

    To my slight surprise, I fully agree with everything you said in your last post to me. People’s ability to compare the relative magnitude of different risks is often wildly wrong. The NHS, and the government faces a big challenge in communicating this. Communicating risk is a daily challenge for me. It very challenging as you have to explain the same thing in different ways for different people because of their preconceptions.

    I have connections in SW, and have concerns about how things will progress down there too.

  28. @ CHARLES – That advise is a bit old, let’s hope they’ve improved it since?

    I mentioned Sweden have had as big an issue as anyone with Care Homes and they’ve been honest in acknowledging that.

    Accepting you have a problem is the first step in fixing it. I think HMG have finally accepted they have a problem but given the global issue then lots of potential to “copy” others if they are working on at least partial solutions

    I mentioned dementia earlier and in the link (near then end under ‘What Now”) they mention

    “One way that the elderly care sector can fight infection is to separate people who have dementia and are infected with the coronavirus”

    https://www.thelocal.se/20200506/coronavirus-what-went-wrong-in-swedens-care-homes

    Plexiglass screens seems a pretty obvious measure as well and we’re already doing that in essential shops.

    The issue for Care Homes is mainly to stop C-19 getting in there in the first place but if it does get in then you don’t want “wanderers” spreading it to everyone else.

    FWIU Sweden are also looking at being “pre-emptive” and giving some dementia residents a ‘Summer Holiday’ away from their normal Care Home and where possible trying to see if other family members or friends can take them in for a “Holiday” – with financial incentives?!?

    ‘Holidays’ can’t last forever but if I had an elderly relative or friend in a Care Home I’d be looking to get them outta there pronto (although if you’re elderly/at risk yourself you might want to “quarantine” and test the evacuee before letting them fully into your own “cocoon”, if your an “essential worker” then sadly your “cocoon” will have its own leaks so you’ll have to decide if your own home is more/less of risk than the Care Home)

    We need to be careful with stigma and blame but if you have dementia I doubt you want to be a “murderer” and if you’re in a home but don’t dementia then I doubt you want to be “murdered” by someone who “walks with purpose”

    I don’t under estimate the practical challenges but we/rWest need to do a lot better on the Care Home issue.

    The other priority is to not drag the “leaky lockdown” out longer than we need to. We’re currently shielding the least at risk (eg closing schools) whilst we allow the virus to eventually get into every Care Home and hit every Social Care patient – wrecking the economy for those with decades of life left to live (and pay back the debt) while we do so :(

    The Grim Reaper prefers a drawn out War – we need VC before Winter as we can’t wait for the Americans to turn up too late with a vaccine.

  29. Pete B

    “I’ve wondered why there isn’t an English Grand Committee in the HoC”

    There is one,

    There’s also one for England and Wales, and another one for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    They were set up by the HoC in order to implement Cameron’s policy that HoC should amend its standing orders to implement his EVEL and E&WE&WL ideas.

    It always surprises me that people can be so ignorant of the mechanisms that govern them, while simultaneously having strong opinions about the mechanisms of governance.

  30. Trevs

    “we can’t wait for the Americans to turn up too late with a vaccine.”

    It’s one of the stranger aspects of UK self-obsession that the meme that the USA were “late” into WWI and WWII because it would have suited the UK for them to have entered those wars earlier.

    As an independent state, the USA made its own choices as to when entry into wars in Europe suited them.

    As a good English Nationalist, would you tolerate being forced into war on another country’s timetable?

    Quite possibly! :-)

  31. Grant Shapps told a blatant lie today in the Press Conference in trying to defend the Tory government. I had only just switched on, but this is what the DTel reports him as saying:

    “… So the medical advice didn’t support it. But it is worth pointing out that we did in fact close off entry from anyone from Wuhan in January, from Iran, Italy and South Korea in February. People may have not realised at the time.”

    Grant Shapps clearly said ANYONE from Italy in February, 4 weeks before there were severe restrictions.

    Travel from most of Italy was allowed in February, and only people returning to the UK from parts of Northern Italy were being advised to isolate. See BBC report:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51625733

    Shapps may have been brought into the government to play the Cockney-spiv charmer roll, but to most of us he brings them more discredit than gain.

    But it`s also possible that Shapps knew of the quite-different advice the government was sending out to its own employees in February, also on the “best scientific advice”. But any government that sends simultaneously different instructions to different groups but citing the same reasoning, is playing with fire.

  32. I must admit to some bewilderment with what sort of post goes into auto-moderation on UKPR these days and what sails through instead. I’m assuming Anthony is so hands-off these days (endless threads etc) that he can’t be personally reading and moderating any of the material that is posted, so it must instead be down to the use of certain words that auto-mod is designed to reject. If so, I’m absolutely fascinated to know what those words may be and what criteria is used to select them.

    Rather extraordinarily, I’ve fallen foul this afternoon with the most innocuous and inoffensive post it could be possible to imagine. Following up some contributions from others I saw on the topic of cycling, I wrote and tried to submit some thoughts of my own, but to no avail. On each rejection, I scanned what I’d written for words that could conceivably have offended, even putting asterisks into words such as “damage”, but I just couldn’t get it through. For the life of me, I couldn’t see a word used or sentiment expressed by me that would have offended anyone. It was a neutral, non-political subject too with no possibility of partisanship.I gave up after about eight attempts. Extraordinary.

    This isn’t a whinge (alright, just a little one maybe) but when I read some of the posts that get on to the site that contain pretty offensive sentiments and expressions, even personally abusive ones on occasions, it bewilders and baffles me what semblance of a credible “Comments Policy” applies on UKPR any longer.

    It’s all got a tad farcical to me.

  33. @ OLDNAT – On the whisky tonight I see!

    The analogy would be more akin to whether Trump would sell a US made vaccine to UK/rWorld even if/when they did develop one first.

    I would think even he would judge that ending the tyranny of C-19 globally would be in his country’s best interest but with Trump you never know.

    It will hopefully be Biden by then though…

    PS You can put the Scottish and EU flags back up to full mast today. I appreciate y’day was probably a day of grieving for you. Still fingers crossed Brussels will get to rule over you soon enough, eh ;)

  34. Trevs

    I made no analogy, so your comment is simply foolish and irrelevant.

    You repeated a meme, common among the self-important, and still have no realisation just how parochial that is.

  35. “The downside being that the roads will be awash with caravans…”

    ————

    At least they’re on the road, not on the pavement…

  36. CB – perhaps some posters have an added automod layer, only ones AW most dislikes? Perhaps he supports Birmingham City or West Brom.

    ON – I understand DEVO MAX is way to simple but mischievously was intending to forecast that the impressive Ms Cherry would take over as SNP leader during the next 4 years; and, that she and Kier Starmer would be able to strike some sort of deal if the Electoral maths allowed.

  37. Jim Jam

    Depending on the electoral arithmetic in HoC after the next election, it may be possible for the Labour Party, if it has the largest number of MPs, to make deals with one or more parties to get their legislation through.

    That’s normally how minority governments operate.

  38. CB11

    I`m sorry to hear of your problems in posting since you often provide a good read.

    I suspect there are differences between various routes of postings, since I do notice that other posters cannot put in words that I use without problem.

    But in turn I find that annoyingly I cannot put in more than two links, and sometimes I am moderated on two links, so often don`t risk this.

  39. @Davwel / CB

    Some words blank the post (e.g. synonym for fibber and as such gets filtered when used as part of a word that starts with ‘fami’). Some website urls (thinking of tabloids here) are made up of words that are filtered. More than two links does it too, but you can paste link text without making it a clickable, so others can lift the text, should they wish too.

    e.g. ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10135/comment-page-104#comments

    AW has put these controls in place to minimise active moderation, probably both to reduce political opinion, and rhetoric, but to prevent newbies treating the place as their new wailing wall (and link spammers too).

    Unless a post shouldn’t be split into more than one, I tend not to break the 2 link rule if possible. He could easily decide a breach of it is worthy of a short holiday.

  40. New English Gov message to be “Stay A Lert”?

    This messaging will be confusing for those who were not previously lerts.

  41. Latest GB poll from Opinium (for the Observer):
    CON: 49% (+4)
    LAB: 33% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (-6)
    SNP: 5% (+1)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    PC: 1% (+1)
    The usual trend of most rallying round the government. NB that SNP score ie 5% of the total GB vote (in Scotland only), means a total landslide for them
    (Lucid Talk)

  42. A new Opinium poll for the Observer shows people in this country now view the UK as having performed worse than Italy, Spain and France in the Covid-19 crisis.

    Approval of Government handling of the crisis still in positive territory but definitely on the slide. +12% approve/disapprove the lowest since Opinium started polling on the subject.

  43. More commentarry on the Opinium poll in the Observer: –

    “On specific aspects of the crisis, 60% disapprove of the way the government has handled testing for Covid-19. This follows the government announcing it had hit the 100,000 test per day 10 days ago only to fail to meet that target again on any single day last week.

    With some lockdown restrictions potentially being eased from Monday, the majority of people are still cautious about reopening public places. Fewer than one in 10 think schools (8%), offices (8%) and non-essential shops (9%) should reopen immediately. Similarly, the public seem uncomfortable with the idea of visiting public places or using public transport even after restrictions are lifted. Three in five (60%) say they would not feel comfortable eating in a restaurant, while over half would feel uncomfortable using the underground (55%) or travelling by bus or train (59% and 56% respectively). Meanwhile, opinion is more divided on returning to offices; over a third (36%) would feel uncomfortable going back to working in an office, while 30% would feel comfortable.”

  44. It’s also being suggested that the new English messaging will say “Control the Virus”,

    How? Give it detention if it misbehaves?

    I do hope that this vacuous phraseology doesn’t actually see the light of day, or is restricted to the No 10 press office.

  45. What I find a little bizarre about that opinion poll is the 12% net approval for the way we have handled the crisis and yet, aside from USA, the public think that we have handled the crisis worse than every other country listed. That doesn’t seem logical to me.

  46. That Lucid Talk comment on the VI in Scotland is a little overstated. There are no changes of significance, other than some random variations among the Unionist parties in Scotland over the last 7 Opinium UK polls. If anything there is a tiny drop in the SNP margin of victory.

  47. News talking about an additional 3 million nhs waiting list by the time this settles down. how many of those might be expected to die as a result?

    Let’s suppose it’s 100,000 within a year. If that’s a bigger number than the total dying from covid, just what are we doing?

  48. @Oldnat

    Opinium is over-cooking the SNP at the UK level. They have it as 5%, which is a rounding thing, but download their spreadsheet and increase the numbers shown after the decimal, and it shows as 4.775%.

    However the regional CB says 50 of 105, which is 47.6%. For 47.6% to translate as 4.78%, you would divide the number by 9.95 (or 10).

    Given that the 2019 electorate in Scotland was pretty much 8.5% of the UK’s electorate, the divisor should be approximately 11.75 to be fairly accurate. This would yield a result of 4.1% at the UK level, or 4% if sticking to the rounding that the polling companies prefer.

    When you said 5% I expected 53% as a minimum, and when I saw 48% I knew something was amiss. Still questioning the worthiness of UK-wide polls, versus polls of smaller polities.

  49. Statgeek

    As I said, Lucid Talk make too much of Opinium’s rounding of the SNP share of the UK VI to 5%.

    All that Scots crossbreak does is not to contradict the data from Full Scottish, as well as GB/UK crossbreaks, that SNP VI is round about half of the electorate.

    That this would give them the vast majority of Westminster seats is entirely due to the self-interest of Con/Lab, who hope that FPTP will give them the power to govern on the basis of a derisory share of the vote,

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