Update

Apologies for the lack of posts – there has, of course, been plenty of regular polling on public attitudes towards the coronavirus, notably from YouGov, Opinium and Ipsos MORI… I can’t quite bring myself to dive into it though.

This week there was also the regular Welsh political barometer, ably dissected by Roger Awan-Scully here.


5,294 Responses to “Update”

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  1. missing some % signs in 1:39pm, eg:

    IE If IFR (excluding Care Homes) = 0.24% then overall it is 0.44%

  2. Grumpy Old Men on Pavements

    @ Carfrew

    “But having issues with motoring does not solve the problem of being mown down by bikes.”

    “Mown down” = you see what I mean about tabloid language! My point was there isn’t actually a problem to be solved!,, compared with motor vehicles.

    Take the”Cyclists are Killers on Pavements” Cr-p

    “Between 2005 and 2018, 8.6% of the 5,835 pedestrian deaths in England, Scotland and Wales occurred on pavements … the majority (542 out of 548) involved motor vehicles, with six pedestrian-cycle footway collisions. The research uncovered examples of some of the most dangerous driving on Britain’s roads over the past 15 years . . most fatal collisions on pavements took place in fine weather, on well-lit streets, with no hazards on the road. ”

    You’re the statistics man. Think about it.

  3. ONS ask plenty of “polling” type tracker questions but not VI of course!

    There most recent info (with link to a .xls for the data)

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/7may2020

  4. @ NearlyFrench

    “Too many car drivers are rude and unhelpful whilst too many cyclists are rude and aggressive – and that’s just to other cyclists. Why do cyclists in the UK never speak? All most unpleasant”

    Thanks. Not cycled in France for some years, but it was v pleasant. It was also great that every village had someone who could fix a bike problem, tho I guess those days are over?

    As for bad behaviour: is it because there is a state of war between cyclists & drivers? There is the criticaI mass loop. “Cycling wuld be less dangerous if more people cycled, but they don’t because it’s dangerous.”

    There was plenty of cycling jollity when, once, most of Manchester centre was shut down to vehicles. In the summer that could happen regularly on Sunday mornings. They did this every Sunday in Guadalajara in Mexico (5 Mill pop.) when I was there. The roads were packed with every kind of non-motorised transport & pedestrians.

  5. On cyclists, I suspect (as wit drivers to be fair) a small number of obnoxious individuals are causing a whole body of people to be unfairly tarred.

    On any given week in central London I would always see cyclists going through red pedestrian lights, often very close to people, and on a few occasions actually hitting them.

    Over the last few years I’ve seen two assaults, both by cyclists on pedestrians, and on both occasions when they were 100% in the wrong – but I suspect that any large random group of young men will have a few aggressive pillocks in its ranks…

  6. Alec @ 1.36 pm

    Thanks for that instance of a rogue farmer.

    From calling on farmers to ask permission to work on their land (a very minor part of my work) I can testify to a great variability in attitude and behaviour. Most helpful, some just tolerant, some sheer bad and irresponsible.

    The worst I met, who scared me off his land with threats, seemed to have previously stopped the O.S. upgrading surveyors from getting on to his big holding; since they had missed a belt of trees that must have been planted at their survey date. Then I heard telling stories from his farming neighbours.

    But many farmers had or have sloppy practices. With F&M, it`s significant that 57 farms were infected in 16 UK counties before the first cases were confirmed – the Essex abattoir and the pig farm quite near you. Many of these infections resulted from wide dispersion after auction sales at a Cumbrian mart.

    So on Covid19 I am ready to believe much the same happened in the UK – early cases were not recognised because it wasn`t in medics` minds to check, and too much dispersion because government ministers were unhappy about damaging airlines and the holiday industry.

  7. @Robbiealive

    ““Mown down” = you see what I mean about tabloid language! My point was there isn’t actually a problem to be solved!,, compared with motor vehicles.”

    ————

    I have already accepted the favourable comparison with bikes compared to motor cars.

    However, one does not automatically accept being mown down by bikes, simply because it might be preferable to being mown down by a motor vehicle.

    I put it to you Robbie, that there might be another salient comparison: the comparison between being mown down by a bike, and not being mown down by a bike.

    And while it might be true that cars mounting the pavement might cause more deaths, I find that on a day-to-day basis, I am not leaping out of the way of cars on the pavement, whereas for bikes, it’s a more regular occurrence.

  8. @BIGFATRON

    “On cyclists, I suspect (as wit drivers to be fair) a small number of obnoxious individuals are causing a whole body of people to be unfairly tarred.”

    ————

    Indeed, the ones who stay on the road are angels in comparison. (They are better than some pedestrians…)

  9. Guardian: 1 Hour Ago

    “A 16-year-old cyclist is in a life-threatening condition after being hit by two cars in south London. The boy was critically injured in the collision in Streatham High Road shortly before 11.20pm on Friday.
    The Metropolitan police said officers believe the boy had been cycling on the road when he was in collision with a car and, seconds later, was struck by a second car travelling close behind.
    The drivers of both vehicles, who are not thought to know to each other, failed to stop at the scene, police said.
    Two men, both aged in their 20s, were later arrested at separate locations in the local area and are in custody at south London police stations.
    The teenager was taken to hospital where he remains in a life-threatening condition.”

  10. Number of pedestrians injured by bikes at record levels

    https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/number-pedestrians-injured-bikes-record-2533819

    “Across Britain the number of pedestrians injured in collisions with bikes on pavements and those suffering serious injuries is at a record high”

  11. Somerjohn

    I should qualify my response by saying I am not directly involved in treating covid. But you can’t work in a hospital right now without learning a fair bit about covid treatment, and management. There is no specialism that is unaffected.

    Its certainly true that knowledge of effective treatment has improved. That is to be expected as we started from zero!

    We now have clearer plans for how best to track the progression of the disease which helps better inform treatment decisions. But in truth treatment currently is largely about managing symptoms and waiting to see how things progress. Certainly the effectiveness of ventilators is lot ower than first believed. Percentage mortality rate of ventilated patients is scary. So less patients are being ventilated. With experience, treatment inevitably improves, essentially through trial and error.

    There is a huge amount of research going on into different treatments, some of which I have involvement in. I know a little about this that is not in the mainstream yet. I am optimistic about the plasma work. I suspect there won’t be one magic bullet treatment emerge but rather a combination of treatments that together will greatly decrease death rates.

    Treatments should be the main focus. Effective treatments WILL emerge. A vaccine would be great, but there is a good chance no effective vaccine will be available ever, or at least that it will take so long that it’s of limited use.

    Regarding triage guidelines. I think Ihave the knowledge to answer the question authoritatively. But I don’t believe triage is a reason for the reduction you describe

    I am VERY concerned about the role of
    CV19 in unrelated deaths. By this I am referring to unrelated in the sense of patients that do not have covid, but whose treatment is delayed/changed because of the covid response. So much elective work has been cancelled. Some for serious conditions (e.g transplants, heart ops, diagnostic scans for cancer etc). My trust is trying to ramp this work back up on a risk assessment basis. But roughly 50pc of patients are declining appointments/treatment due to Covid fears. So there is an ever increasing pool of patients not receiving treatment they need. This will lead to deaths without question. It may already be a part of the discrepancy between increased deaths and covid deaths numbers. Hopefully small, but I have no way to quantify. Hospitals are currently working on the assumption (rightly or wrongly) that a second wave will arrive in July. If so, the window of opportunity for doing this work will be short, and it’s closing fast. Personally I think a big second peak in July is a low risk, but again we just don’t know.

    Another area that I am quite concerned about is the long term health effects in recovered covid patients. There is mounting evidence that kidney, liver, lung, heart, problems will
    be an ongoing concern for a significant minority. It’s too early to really understand the magnitude of this issue. Covid hasn’t been around long enough to assess the medium term affects

    Not sure if these ramblings were helpful!

  12. Good afternoon all from a very warm and slightly cloudy Winchester.

    I don’t want to appear pessimistic and negative but just want to put a bit of a reality boot into the Tory regimes proposals on transport post lock down.

    On cycling and walking I’m guessing they are looking through the prism of London and hoping for a one umbrella approach fits all for the rest of the country.

    As a keen cyclist myself I find the UK is extremely negative towards cyclists. Anyone who comes out with stupid bull such as “Oh cyclists go through red lights, a cyclist bumped up on the pavement, I saw a cyclist hit a pedestrian blah blah blah, obviously for selective warped reasons have their backs turned to the wall regarding the amount of death and carnage motor vehicles cause on our roads each day.

    I’m saying this as a keen cyclist and UK driving licence holder and owner of a car and that is there is a large group in this country that have an extreme dislike towards cyclists despite nearly 80% of regular cyclists over the age of 17 holding a UK driving licence.

    Some drivers in this country accept sitting bumper to bumper behind thousands of other vehicles daily on the motorways (no cyclists permitted mind) is just part of the dally commute but instantly see red when they come across a solitary cyclists on a road.

    Where the vast majority of drivers have been great when out cycling I’ve had a few altercations with drivers over the years. Most tend to be highly strung insecure middle aged females and overweight males who probably can’t remember the last time they saw their own dick in the shower.

    Since the lock down has been imposed the weather has been very nice so I’m not surprised they want to promote walking and cycling more as a way of getting to work. I’m not so sure they would be talking about it as much had the weather been awful during lock down.

    In a nutshell…When more people start going back to work our roads are going to be more congested than ever booting pollution levels up into the stratosphere. As long as their is social distancing who the hell would want to travel on public transport if they have their own car? Cycling or walking to work is fine if you live close to your work but in the depths of winter? Pull the other one.

    The new normal = contradictions and confusion. Learn to live with it.

  13. Two weeks of self isolating on arrival of return to the UK effectively destroys aviation, tourism and much of the service sector five million jobs in the UK could be lost.
    There is no scientific basis for preventing entry into a country where the cv19 virus is already endemic self reporting suggests upwards of four million UK residents have or already have had cv19. Even if the actual figure is only a quarter of that It’s already endemic and can’t be excluded.
    It’s entirely different from new Zealand which at the peak probably had less than 10000 diagnosed and undiagnosed cases and now has probably under a hundred and are presumably prepared to accept quarantine measures lasting possibly for years.
    You need to track trace and isolate within a fully infected country, check the health of arrivals by all means but we are heading for a period which will make the deaths, starvation and poverty and massive increases in international tension of the great depression look like the good times if we don’t get a grip.
    What is this move intended to do, it most certainly isn’t virus control.
    What it is however is a Brexiter nationalist wet dream ending freedom of movement for everyone under cover of a health emergency.
    The fact that it will impoverish millions and wipe 10%+ off GDP doesn’t seem to get a look in.
    You can’t isolate a country from something it already has.

  14. They Can’t Even a Door without Causing Mayhem

    @ Carfrew
    Thanks for the link. This was the bit about cyclists:
    “There were 108 people across Britain injured in such collisions in 2017, up from 71 in 2016.”

    The article also included the following:

    “The government has released . . .new statistics which reveal how many people are injured and even killed by ‘dooring’ each year. Dooring is a collision where the occupant of a car opens the door into another road user, typically a cyclist.
    According to the new statistics, two people die from dooring each year and more than 700 are injured.”

    The dozy gits can’t even open a car door safely & are seven times as lethal as the entire UK’s cycling population!!

    @ Bigfatron

    “On any given week in central London I would always see cyclists going through red pedestrian lights, often very close to people, and on a few occasions actually hitting them”.

    Thanks for yr balanced approach. I’m just posing the stats rather than relying on anecdotes.

    However I did just post:

    “96% of pedestrians killed or injured by road users jumping red lights are done in by motor vehicles.”

    I dislike cyclists who run lights, pavement ride etc because they are feeding the anti-cycling frenzy. Of course the real cause of this right-wing press frenzy is a dislike of anyone attemtpting to find an alternative, more fun, more environmentally-friendly, less consumerist way of doing things.

    Defending petrol-heads, cars & the destruction they cause is at root the defence of a consumerist capitalism.

    Everyone I’m sure is bored with this.

  15. @Allan C

    “As a keen cyclist myself I find the UK is extremely negative towards cyclists. Anyone who comes out with stupid bull such as “Oh cyclists go through red lights, a cyclist bumped up on the pavement, I saw a cyclist hit a pedestrian blah blah blah, obviously for selective warped reasons have their backs turned to the wall regarding the amount of death and carnage motor vehicles cause on our roads each day.”

    ————-

    Well, they are valid concerns. You don’t have to be anti-cycling to be concerned about injuries to pedestrians (or indeed to cyclists) because of cycling on pavements.

    You can be very pro cycling, and wish for more protections for cyclists, more cycle lanes etc., while also being bothered about cycling on pavements.

    It could be warped to assume an anti-cycling agenda where one doesn’t apply.

  16. RobbieAlive,

    “ They Can’t Even a Door without Causing Mayhem”

    They need to get a Joiner In!

    Peter.

  17. CARFREW

    “Number of pedestrians injured by bikes at record levels”
    _______

    That’s not surprising. Our roads are not geared up for safe cycling and with more parents telling their kids to stick to the pavements and more adults taking up cycling in some cities to get around then the inevitable will happen despite it being illegal to cycle on most pavements.

    I personally don’t cycle on pavements or go through red lights but will walk my bike across the junctions with pedestrians if the lights are red for traffic. Perfectly legal but it doesn’t stop the proverbial tooting of ones horn followed up by the close dangerous punishment pass.

    As a driver I also have issues with some cyclists but this is nothing in comparison to the issues I have with other drivers.

  18. @Robbiealive

    “Defending petrol-heads, cars & the destruction they cause is at root the defence of a consumerist capitalism.”

    ———

    Well, like we said, being concerned about bikes on pavements doesn’t mean you’re not concerned about cars too. One might also be concerned about a future of drones, electric scooters, retired educationalists, the world is full of dangers!

  19. Sonerjohn,
    “A fascinating read”

    bantams posted it yesterday . It is indeed fascinating because the chap says he tested positive initially, but by the time it got bad enough for him to go to hospital, he was testing negative. That this isn’t uncommon.

  20. @Bardini

    Nice link. If you scroll to the bottom, there’s a FAQ, including “Is there a website like this for the rest of the UK / World?

  21. @Allan C

    “That’s not surprising. Our roads are not geared up for safe cycling and with more parents telling their kids to stick to the pavements and more adults taking up cycling in some cities to get around then the inevitable will happen despite it being illegal to cycle on most pavements.”

    ———-

    Well yes and like I said one cannot blame them for taking to the pavement at tricky junctions etc.

    It’s the cycling on the pavement that’s an issue. And at pelicans, where they have to wait and teeter next to yiu, trying to balance and keep tilting your way.

    I think more needs to be done for cyclists but I’m not sure that cycling on pavements is the solution.

  22. @ IanH

    Thanks for that post- interesting stuff.

  23. @Robbie (cycling)

    Why is any adult cycling on any pavement? Why not the road? We were all taught to cycle on the road. I would have thought with the lockdown, the roads would be far less cluttered and far more safe.

  24. CARFREW

    Well, they are valid concerns. You don’t have to be anti-cycling to be concerned about injuries to pedestrians (or indeed to cyclists) because of cycling on pavements.

    You can be very pro cycling, and wish for more protections for cyclists, more cycle lanes etc., while also being bothered about cycling on pavements.

    It could be warped to assume an anti-cycling agenda where one doesn’t apply.
    _____________

    I agree with you and you might find I’ve covered off some of the points you’ve mentioned in my above post.

    Bad cyclists are bad cyclist and we can all agree on that. However it’s the over zealous and historical reaction some (including the media) have towards cyclists whenever someone has been hit by one.

    A few years back a cyclist hit a woman when she was crossing the road and she later died. The bike in question was illegal to be on the road in the first place as it had no breaks and is what you call a fixie bike. More suited to a velodrome than the roads.

    Anyway…Had it been a normal road bike then it would had been the females fault, however because of the type of bike it was the media and large sections of the public including the females husband got stuck right into cycling at large. The frenzy and knee jerk reaction from one incident was incredible.

    This one woman’s death caused by someone cycling a bike which should had not been on the road had the media coverage equivalent of about 500 road vehicle deaths caused by drunk, drugged up, joyriding, car thieves , speeding and police chases all molded into one.

  25. @IANH

    Interesting reading your post. Some of it chimes with what others have been wondering about on the board, about issues with ventilation, the possibility of a cocktail of treatments; haven’t seen much on here about potential long-term Covid-related conditions on recovery that you mention.

    A particular issue is that of immunity, if that’s your bag…

  26. STATGEEK
    @Robbie (cycling)

    Why is any adult cycling on any pavement? Why not the road? We were all taught to cycle on the road. I would have thought with the lockdown, the roads would be far less cluttered and far more safe.
    _____________

    I can only speak for my area and yes traffic is much reduced at the moment so you would assume it would be safer for cycling but unfortunately it’s not really the case.. With the roads being quieter some drivers are increasing their speeds in and around Winchester.

    The minor roads especially leading to the South Downs are like race tracks and unfortunately a lot of cyclists use they roads as well.

    I’m guilty of it as well when driving to Southampton on the M3, I admit I do tend to floor it a bit because the motorway is quieter but that’s well away from cyclists.

  27. Sorry for typos…On my phone in garden and predictive text is an issue.

  28. @ IANH – Re: “Ventilators” . FWIW Germany currently have 69% of ICU patients on ventilators but only 28% of discharges from ICU have been deaths (there is a lag in between the two but quite a bit of time has passed).

    Table4, page 7:

    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-08-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

    As per your comments and previous info from LL, myself then many (maybe not all?) NHS hospitals have found ventilators to be of less help than the ‘early advice’ from China+Italy.

    Seems strange to non-medical types that the “World” hasn’t yet agreed on “best practise” for treatments??

    Re: “Indirect deaths” then certainly the longer non-C-19 diseases go without diagnosis or treatment then the higher the death toll from indirects (eg Cancer) but the higher the perceived risk of catching C-19 in hospital (or not wanting to overwhelm NHS and not calling ambulance) then the higher the week-week deaths (eg heart attack)

    That creates a 2×2 matrix where you ideally want folks to perceive hospitals and seeking treatment as “safe” (and not a burden to NHS staff/facilities) but also get through the virus as quickly as possible.

    Sadly I fear we’re in the opposite corner (high perceived risk means folks are delaying diagnosis and treatment “x” prolonged period of virus = much higher ‘indirect’ deaths)

    Once folks form an opinion it can be difficult to turn that around so sadly we might be stuck with the perceived view that hospitals are not “safe” – Whitty is trying to change the “perception” but he faces and uphill battle on that one.

  29. CARFREW

    . And at pelicans, where they have to wait and teeter next to yiu, trying to balance and keep tilting your way”
    _____________

    It’s called Track standing. Yes I’m guilty of it myself but I’m good at it although I did nearly flatten my Granny when showboating off to her on my driveway.

  30. @Allan C

    “However it’s the over zealous and historical reaction some (including the media) have towards cyclists whenever someone has been hit by one.”

    ————

    Yes, it seems hysterical reactions are possible toward many things, including voicing innocent concerns about cycling on pavements!

    Regarding no bikes on the M3 well of course, they’re all elsewhere on the pavements!

  31. @AC

    “It’s called Track standing. Yes I’m guilty of it myself but I’m good at it although I did nearly flatten my Granny when showboating off to her on my driveway.”

    ———-

    Ah, is that what it’s called? “Standing” wouldn’t be so bad, it’s more a sort of “lurching” in my experience.

    Followed by “weaving” towards someone as the lights go green and we cross the road, as the front wheel is a bit errant initially on attempting to set off.

    (On occasions there might even be a bit of “leaning” against a hapless pedestrian briefly if the tottering gets out of control…)

  32. @IanH

    Many thanks for your informative post.

    I have an irritating habit of summarising others’ posts to check that i haven’t got the wrong end of the stick.

    So… what I understand is that treatment is improving; no radical improvements yet but lots in the pipeline. You don’t think the hospital survival rate is artificially boosted by keeping the dying elderly out. And you’re concerned about the knock-on and maybe-long term effects of CV infection.

    If that’s the picture, it surely all adds up to a good reason for keeping the infection rate as low as possible for as long as possible. At a personal level, if I’m going to get CV I’d rather get it in 6 months’ time when treatment is a lot more effective!

  33. @Allan

    Sounds like the “We carried knives cos they carried knives” excuse tbh. I pop my cruise control on to 60/70mph and forget about the speed. Perhaps some folk are just asking to be statistics and/or insurance premium victims.

    To be clear, I’m talking about roads in built up areas. Country roads will always be more dangerous for cyclists because their speed is hugely different to the speeds of other road users.

    That’s the risk a cyclist takes in the countryside. That’s why people walk on the side of incoming traffic. That’s why they’re not permitted on motorways (although there’s a car-width emergency lane that’s perfect for cyclists, so go figure).

  34. @IanH

    The texts all came from the NHS Coronavirus Service, who presumably got my mobile phone number through my medical record at my GP surgery. When I showed them to my wife’s principal carer, he thought it was a case of high-ups at the NHS covering their own backsides against further deaths in the community.

    @Carfrew/AC

    We need to remember that what makes news is the rare event, not the common event, and the rarer it is the more newsworthy it is.

    Around where I live, for the past couple of decades it has been quite normal for children to ride bikes on the footway because of the danger from vehicular traffic. Unfortunately, when those children grow up they continue these habits, even when (as in our area) we now have a 20 mph zone with speed cushions, which has been in place for about five years.

    @Steve

    We should have already been quarantining all arrivals when we went into lockdown. A conservative estimate is that there were 20,000 covid carriers amongst the 1.8 million who came into the country. The government could easily have bought up the rooms in hotels near airports; as long as they kept the passengers from each flight together, they could have released them all as a group 14 days later. It is what they started doing but gave up on before lockdown.

  35. CARFREW

    Yes, it seems hysterical reactions are possible toward many things, including voicing innocent concerns about cycling on pavements!

    Regarding no bikes on the M3 well of course, they’re all elsewhere on the pavements!
    ______________

    You see what you’re doing? Over reacting and stereotyping cyclists and actually diluting your main point of some cyclists being on the pavement.

    I accept cycling on the pavements is both illegal and dangerous just as selfish vehicle owners are a danger to families with prams and disabled people on wheelchairs by parking on the pavements and forcing them onto the road.

    Two wrongs don’t make a right but a proportionate response to the minority of cyclists who cycle on pavements would be a start.
    ………….
    “On occasions there might even be a bit of “leaning” against a hapless pedestrian briefly if the tottering gets out of control…)”
    ___________
    I’m sorry about your experience regarding Track standing…I thought you being such a nice person you wouldn’t object to a poor tired cyclist having a shoulder to lean on?

  36. @Allan C

    “You see what you’re doing? Over reacting and stereotyping cyclists and actually diluting your main point of some cyclists being on the pavement.”

    ———

    I wasn’t being serious about the M3 comment Allan! I don’t really think the only reason they’re not on the Motorway is because they’re all on the pavement.

    Some of them are in the arcades.

  37. Re: current levels of infection (numbers of infectious people) then “people in hospital with C-19” is again of some use – but we have to make assumptions!

    England currently 9,769 (57% of the peak 17,180 on 12Apr)

    ICL’s Report #9 numbers seem to high but if roughly 5% of symptomatic people end up in hospital (and setting aside the small lag between onset and hospital[1]) then you’d have just under 200,000 infectious people in the population[2] and 400,000 if 50% are asymptomatic (which is somewhere between 25-50k ish new infections per day). If less than 5% of folks end up in hospital then above numbers are all higher – be nice to know the actual numbers wouldn’t it!

    Anyway, in %s then that means 0.35%-0.7%ish of folks are acquiring immunity per week at the moment. Outside of London that would be too low to get to next Winter with a high enough % to allow a “new normal” (ie we’d still be stuck with many lockdown measures into next Winter)

    PS The French have adopted a regional approach based on hospital capacity and assuming similar levels of gross capacity[3] across English regions then a quick glance at people in hospital with C-19.

    People in hospital with C-19 (per million): lowest to highest

    SWest: 83
    SEast: 135
    East: 151
    Midlands: 160
    London: 202
    NE+Y: 205
    NWest: 268

    Note: Using the “low levels of infections” = go faster method (as per France) gives close to the opposite approach of “immunity”. SWest having the lowest immunity and the lowest level of infectious people (with London opposite). NWest seem to be a bit slow getting their R down (no “gregarious” comments please) but perhaps like Scotland have a bit more work to do before any lockdown measures should be lifted for them.

    SWest also has more rural and remote locations so access to hospital is lower. I’m very worried we’re going to send “mutton to the slaughter” down there :(

    [1] If R=0.8 then a 7day delay from onset to hospital means you should multiply above by 0.8

    [2] Assuming same time periods (eg 7 days of “infectious” for non-hospital folks and average of 7 days in hospital). The data suggests folks are spending less than 7days in hospital (written about before) which would mean more infections people in population.

    [3] The huge mothballed Nightingale in London would suggest London has more capacity per capita and with a younger population should have less “demand” in wave2 and having had a higher wave1 would be very unlikely to make a “new high”

  38. @AC

    “I thought you being such a nice person you wouldn’t object to a poor tired cyclist having a shoulder to lean on?”

    ———

    Well it depends on stuff like whether they knock some shopping out my hands in the process. Or whether I’ve gone out my way to stand well away and they lurch over towards me anyway. (There are lots of rules…)

  39. MOG

    Thanks for the explanation. I’m not looking for “exactitude” and certainly not from a hopeful estimate of Starmer’s performance reversing the decline in E&W.

    I’d be surprised if the new Labour leadership didn’t significantly improve Labour’s performance in E&W. We agree that there is little sign of any slippage in the SNP’s dominance in Scotland, so that (like in NI) almost all Scots MPs will be on the opposition benches if there is a Labour Government.

    Of course, anything is possible, but a 3 figure Lab overall majority seems out of the question given the radically different pattern of politics in the 21st century.

    When Blair had his 178 majority in 1997, that included 56 SLab MPs. Had 55 of those been from another party back then, and in opposition, the Lab majority would only have been 68.

    To get a 3 figure majority in HoC, Lab would need to take c.130 seats off the Tories in E&W. I think Starmer may turn out to be good, but not that good (though Johnson may be that bad!)

  40. @Steve – “Two weeks of self isolating on arrival of return to the UK effectively destroys aviation, tourism and much of the service sector five million jobs in the UK could be lost.”

    If our aim is to eliminate CV19, then this is the only sensible path. The alternative is to accept a much longer term hit to the tourist economy, as the public will have a lack of confidence in places like bars and restaurants.

    This will have a huge impact on aviation, which is clearly a great shame for those who work in the sector, but there are many good reasons why we should be acting to control this sector until or unless we can develop less damaging forms of international transport.

    I struggle though to understand how this will destroy UK tourism.

    Visit Britain figures for inbound visitor numbers to the UK in 2018 were 37.9m visits of average 7 nights duration with 265.3m visitor nights in total, and a total UK spend of £22.9bn. This was reckoned to be a good year, due to post referendum devaluation.

    For the same year, outbound tourism numbers for the UK were 72.7m visits of average 9.8 days duration, with 712.46m visitor nights and a gross spend of £48bn.

    Outbound visitor nights were therefore 168% of the inbound total and the country lost a net £25.1bn (this would appear as an import and add to the UK’s trade deficit).

    Obviously all tourism sectors will be savaged by CV19, as domestic and inbound visits will be shut down, but if we can eliminate or severely suppress CV19 domestically, to the extent that we can rely on test, trace and isolate for individual outbreaks, while quarantining inbound travelers, then I think you can make a very strong case that the UK tourism industry could experience a bonanza like no other they have ever seen.

    There is potentially the opportunity to double their market if UK citizens cannot go abroad and return without quarantine.

    I’m not saying this will happen, but I hope you can appreciate the numbers. I don’t like to see lazy assumptions go unchallenged, and this will be very serious for the aviation industry, but it may not be quite the dreadful outcome overall that some assume.

  41. @ SJ – but if you have a “lump” or a scheduled batch of chemo treatment or similar[1] would you want to go to hospital before C-19 was sorted?

    It is those “indirect” deaths that we could start to seriously mount out if we drag “suppression” out for 6mths+ and as BFR showed the other day it is unrealistic to assume we’d get infections down to a level to pretend we could adopt S.Korea approach (not that we need to tell folks that)

    Hence the concern of the “bunny in headlights” non-plan. There is a near binary choice to make – keep killing more people and the economy as well (ie prolonged lockdown) or start saving more lives[2] and doing less damage to the economy (ie ease out of lockdown as fast as NHS capacity can cope – although maybe not for your region!)

    [1] IANH might provide a better list but you can add small heart attacks that person has ignored and instead of getting a pacemaker fitted the next one is a big one. Strokes, etc as well. ONS have the data on deaths and things like cancer, heart attacks are huge numbers every year.

    [2] Eventual final scores on the doors. Eg 100k+250k = 350k we discussed before is a “bad” final score versus 80k ‘quicker’. Sadly I expect the 100k and 80k will both be higher due to the incompetence to date (notably Care Homes and PPE)

  42. STATGEEK

    Thanks for your reply….I’m a little lost to be honest!!
    ……………

    CARFREW

    “I wasn’t being serious about the M3 comment Allan! I don’t really think the only reason they’re not on the Motorway is because they’re all on the pavement”

    “Some of them are in the arcades”
    ___________

    Aye maybe so but it’s still a small minority and most will probably be juveniles that should not really be classed as cyclists just as under aged joyriders shouldn’t be classed as motorists.
    ………….

    ” Well it depends on stuff like whether they knock some shopping out my hands in the process. Or whether I’ve gone out my way to stand well away and they lurch over towards me anyway. (There are lots of rules…)”
    ___________

    You see a minority of Track standers giving the majority a bad name. I hope your shopping wasn’t damaged.

  43. LEFTLIBERAL

    @Carfrew/AC

    We need to remember that what makes news is the rare event, not the common event, and the rarer it is the more newsworthy it is.

    Around where I live, for the past couple of decades it has been quite normal for children to ride bikes on the footway because of the danger from vehicular traffic. Unfortunately, when those children grow up they continue these habits, even when (as in our area) we now have a 20 mph zone with speed cushions, which has been in place for about five years.
    ______________

    It’s a fair point you make and you will always get a minority on two and four wheels giving the majority a bad name.

  44. PS Dementia is listed on a lot of death certificates as well but you don’t technically die FROM dementia, you die WITH dementia.

    From a C-19 perspective then folks WITH dementia (in Care Homes, receiving Social Care or living in their own/relatives home) are more likely to “forget” about Social distancing so you have to consider.

    1/ Small risk of catching C-19 x very long time period[1] = X
    (eg 0.3% x 365 days = above 1, most Care Homes and folks that aren’t properly shielding will get it eventually)

    2/ Higher risk of catching C-19 x shorter time period = Y
    (eg 0.5% x 90days = less than half)

    Illustrative numbers only – if anyone has seen a study that looks at this issue then can they post it.

    Ideally you want lower risk of catching C-19 hence the need to do a lot better on “shielding” and “cocooning” no matter which option we go for.

    [1] Also mental health issue and spending final years being locked up etc. A lot of folks still don’t seem to realise ‘Suppression’ is not an “Exit Strategy” – only “herd immunity” (acquired or via vaccine) provides a true Exit. “Treatments” can improve your chances of surviving C-19 but are not “silver bullets”. TTI(s) is not a “silver bullet” for England – not now anyway (and too late to go back and change the past)

  45. @LEFTIELIBERAL

    ‘We should have already been quarantining all arrivals when we went into lockdown.’

    Yes, or rather, when we knew a pandemic was coming, at the end of January! Why are we so cr!p at this sort of thing (and the Germans and South Koreans relatively so good?). Are our leaders stupid, lazy or ‘fingers crossed it won’t happen here’?

  46. DEATHS IN CARE HOMES

    Apols if this has already been discussed.

    When someone falls seriously ill of Covid-suspected in a care home, why don’t the care home call 999 and have the sufferer taken to hospital? Surely that’s what would happen for all other serious illnesses.

    Why are there ANY deaths in care homes that not just old age?

  47. Grant Shapps was being his usual waffly self at today`s press conference, and went veering off into other topics on trying to answer the questions raised.

    Fortunately Jonathan Van -Tan was present to give considered factual answers, and when he said he wasn`t there to give “silly quick fixes” I couldn`t help thinking he thought that that was GS was doing.

    One silly reply from Shapps was on cycling to get to work. He gave a measure of the average commuting distance outside London that was very little, and he said something like that most people will be able to cycle to work, excepting elderly workers.

    We regularly have these centralised views from the Tory London ministers, that you can take an average rather than recognising the wide variation in an attribute or factor. And then considering the problem of those coping with the adverse extreme, like cycling to work in hilly and windy Blackburn or Dundee.

  48. Alec
    The concept that UK domestic tourist market would double while cv19 measures were in place is risible.
    Of course the UK aviation industry the associated airports, maintenance , construction and servicing industries the bulk of major city entertainment industry are highly dependent on overseas visitors and the capacity to utilise ports and airports for both business and pleasure , without both elements they cease to function.
    Three million people are employed directly in the UK tourist industry, often poorly paid and insecure employment.
    These jobs are all at risk.

  49. OLDNAT

    “To get a 3 figure majority in HoC, Lab would need to take c.130 seats off the Tories in E&W. I think Starmer may turn out to be good, but not that good (though Johnson may be that bad!)”
    ____________

    From what I’ve seen of Starmer so far he’s looking like a real credible leader for Labour. I’m not sure how much of his credibility will wash with Scottish voters but I’m certain when Covid19 is finally under control and lock down largely lifted then Starmer will make a mockery of BoJo and his regime on various fronts and begin to take the initiative in England and Wales.

    The much talked about financial packages the regime have put in place look good. Apparently the UK is 5th in the World in it’s financial rescue package but once you strip away the 100% government backed loans then the UK falls to 47th place.

    The government backed loans are not to be sniffed at but most will be paid back resulting in a smaller risk to the UK exchequer and they are just that…loans!!

    47th place in the World in our financial approach to Covid19, stripping away parts the furlough scheme by end of June., PPE crises, telling people to look for new jobs in the middle of a pandemic where millions have lost their jobs should be ripe for Starmer to go on and who knows it might just see him win the 130 seats in E&W from the Tories if in the coming years a horrible and nasty UK emerges from the ashes of Covid19

  50. DAVWEL

    BoJo can cycle from Downing street to Westminster so I’m assuming someone can cycle from Errol to Dundee or Accrington to Blackburn for work.

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