Update

Apologies for the lack of posts – there has, of course, been plenty of regular polling on public attitudes towards the coronavirus, notably from YouGov, Opinium and Ipsos MORI… I can’t quite bring myself to dive into it though.

This week there was also the regular Welsh political barometer, ably dissected by Roger Awan-Scully here.


5,294 Responses to “Update”

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  1. Hopefully some new polling on Coronavirus this weekend?

    If/when anyone sees new polls can they post please. Thx

  2. First.

  3. TW, you swine!

    :-)

  4. @ ALEC – last thread. ?!?! No “GOTCHA” – just your continued misunderstanding.

    As I’ve said any model is only as good as it’s assumptions. The “best fit” in the Oxford analysis made several assumptions.

    Start time: patients(s) zero (eg possibly skiers coming back from Ischgl in early Feb)

    R0: which they assume to be a constant

    IFR: and they, like most folks assume “one country” (ie ignore London issue) and “one demographic” (ie ignore segregating the elderly and most at risk – which from the deaths data, adjusted for London effect, sadly doesn’t seem to have any effect in UK)

    Also time in ICU. On that one the 10days-ish that ICL used (and I had no reason to question) seems a bit low. 13-14days and with a distribution around that (skewed towards longer stays)

    I note you didn’t actually reply with any alternative explanation but clearly TIME has moved on so we have more data. A re-run of the SIRf analysis would show the IFR = 0.1% “line” is now a long way off, although we’re not at the 1% “line” – something closer to 0.5%ish.

    So the question is WHY has the “best fit” changed and I’ve written some posts on that. The most plausible explanation IMO is that R has not been constant and clearly now that we (and most everyone else) has used lockdown then we won’t know if the “curves” are flattening due 100% to lockdown or some % of “population immunity”. Even before lockdown then “spontaneous behavioural adjustment” would lower the R. Mixed in with that is likelihood that early clusters didn’t do the full “dandelion” (eg said skiers just spread the virus amongst their London friends and very few of them did the ‘Kirstie Allsopp’ seeding in rUK)

    However, the TIME is now RIGHT to establish where we are with “population immunity” (guess you “forgot” that discussion?) and again, if you read my more recent posts then you’ll note I’ll going with rough guess of about 10% for UK generally and 40% for London – Why? Well coz it’s the “best fit” on the SIRf analysis and seems credible given the likelihood of 50%ish asymptomatic cases.

    Unlike any discussion with you, then in the Real World, TIME moves on! More data points = ability to “refit” the “best fit” to the latest data

    So please answer this YES/NO

    Given everyone (from ICL to Oxford and China to USA) will be using the same SIR analysis then it’s just the assumptions that are used that will make different predictions – AGREED?

    YES/NO

  5. Repost of CARFREW’s “maths vid” on SIR analysis. As I’ve mentioned several times it is easier to build it in a spreadsheet AND that also gives you the benefit to change the “transm”[1] variable (R-eproduction rate)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLfCbAzgo

    NB I’d split out London which has a much younger demographic and clearly has had much higher ‘R’eproduction. For other regions/nations then you’ll get “hotspots” in cities but most regions/nations have a mix of cities and rural areas and with only a limited amount of data then I’ve lumped rUK together.

    [1] Obviously the aim of lockdown is to get “R-eproduction” rate below 1 but we can we can take the ‘R’ from deaths to go back say 23days and get a good estimate of what the ‘R’ was back then (you obviously can’t know the historic ‘R’ until your data has caught up with the “lag”)

  6. @ Leftie – Liberal

    i agree with you that when the dust has settled we need an inquiry into how to do science during an epidemic. Trouble is that by then the economy will have been thoroughly trashed and a lot of people will have died.

    The problem is how to combine the agility needed for a rapid response in a developing field and the systematic approach typically required by evidence medicine. My own feeling is that what is required is a creative combination of adaptive trials and trials using a MOST design but that what we are getting is the worst of all worlds.

    Part of the difficulty is that the advocates of evidence based medicine have fought for years for scientific rigour and fear that any departure from strict orthodoxy leads to the slippery slope of fads at best and thalidomide at worst.

  7. @Trevs – “@ ALEC – last thread. ?!?! No “GOTCHA” – just your continued misunderstanding……..”

    “I note you didn’t actually reply with any alternative explanation…”

    Actually, I explained fully why I thought the Oxford modellers were overestimating cases. You dismissed it, which was a mistake.

    I understand the maths just fine. I made different assumptions to yours. Lets just leave it there, on the last thread, where it belongs. Fresh start and all that.

    I’m having a lovely day, in the circumstances. Hope you are too.

  8. @Danny

    Reported in today’s Guardian live blog at 11:44 am

    “The principle of “herd immunity”, at one stage touted by the UK government as a possible solution to the coronavirus outbreak, has taken an apparent blow after a study in Austria found less than 1% of the population is infected with coronavirus.

    The first such study in continental Europe, led by pollster SORA which is known for projecting election results, aimed to provide a clearer picture of the total number of infections, given gaps in testing, Reuters reports.

    “Based on this study, we believe that 0.33% of the population in Austria was acutely infected in early April,” SORA co-founder Christoph Hofinger told a news conference. Given the margin of error, the figure was 95% likely to be between 0.12% and 0.76%.

    Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s chancellor, whose government commissioned the study and saw initial findings a few days ago, said on Monday that the rate of infection was around 1%. He said that disproved the idea of herd immunity – which requires widespread infection – as a viable policy option.”

    It just goes to show that old-fashioned Public Health measures are the way to defeat this infection.

  9. AW – Nice to know you’re still out there!

  10. @Charles

    Had you seen my posting just before TW announced a new thread? If not, here is the link to the Nature article again:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01056-7

  11. Unbelievable!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/french-police-turn-back-private-jet-of-holidaymakers-from-uk

    While the 99.9% are in lockdown, here are some of the 0.1% who don’t think it applies to them.

  12. Leftieliberal,

    Big difference between the male
    & female ages!!!!!

    Peter.

  13. @ ALEC – A beautiful day outside, so let’s agree on that and move on.
    Also since we can’t go back in time then I expect we can also now agree that, subject to the test being reliable, then it is now time to see where we are on “population immunity”

    @ LL – From the Reuters article:

    “The study, conducted between April 1 and April 6, in which 1,554 people were tested, did not involve antibody tests, which could tell whether a currently virus-free person was previously infected and is therefore probably immune . Future studies should involve antibody tests, the government has said.”

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-austria-study/less-than-1-of-austrias-population-infected-with-coronavirus-study-finds-idUKKCN21S0ZD

    Now IF they have been counting pneumonia and other respiratory deaths as “from” those causes and IF the early spreading of the virus was mainly in ski areas (specifically the Tirol region, where cases were covered up) then potentially a lot of healthy, generally young folks that had the virus earlier and have since recovered (with a few oldies hving did “from” something else). We’ll find that out when they do a large random sample antibody test and IF they have a high % in Tirol region then questions need to be asked (dare I suggest legal questions!)

    Their lockdown started 15-17Mar and, given their testing protocol is better than UK but not catching everyone then they do appear to have the virus under control and we should see their daily deaths flatten and then drop soon (worldometers source to check that and wiki link to Austria ‘timings’ below)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Austria

    I’m looking forward to when we can start seeing numbers for the “living” not the dead. At that point and with increased testing capacity and better tests (live virus and antibody) then hopefully UK and rWest will have the virus under control soon and we can start on the “Exit Strategy” and move to a “new normal”.

  14. A very small proportion of left wingers politically are showing their true nasty underbelly colours at the moment.

    Steve Hedley, assistant chief of The National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers, said he hoped the whole cabinet contracted Covid-19 too in a series of shocking comments on his Facebook page on Sunday.

    A carer named Anna Scott said she did not support the Conservative Party’s policies but accused Mr Hedley of ‘stooping to a very nasty level’, saying: ‘Now is not the time or ever to mock somebody ill’. In his response,

    Mr Hedley advised Ms Scott to block him, saying he wouldn’t cry ‘crocodile tears for people who’ve killed the working class and vulnerable for years’. As the argument escalated, Ms Scott – who had just finished a shift – said she was ‘quite upset’ by Mr Hedley’s anger.

    The RMT assistant chief backed down, saying it was ‘nice to see someone with compassion’, adding that Ms Scott was ‘doing a wonderful job’.

    However, he then wrote: ‘I don’t want to offend you but if Bojo pops his clogs I’m throwing a party’. In a later comment, Mr Hedley added: ‘I hope the whole cabinet and higher echelons of the Tory Party have been touching various bits of him.’

    Nice!

  15. @ Bantams.

    Yes 1066 and all that is very funny. I bracket it with Three men in a boat and Diary of a nobody, though the last 2 were published rather earlier. I think all three serialised in Punch? Gove based his original history curriculum in 2010ish on 1066. .. . Until someone told him it was a satire.

  16. @ WB61

    V funny last thread

  17. Amidst all this talk about Jenwick and whether he should fall on his sword or not, aren’t we missing the real intrigue here?

    How does a 12 year old prop school boy get a seat in the Cabinet?/

    :-)

  18. ICL (Prof Ferguson) have some new stuff, although time seems to have caught up with most of their “forecast”

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/covid-19-weekly-forecasts/week-07-04-2020/

    I’d have thought Spain now have Rt below 1 (and note they are counting the lagging deaths numbers not new infections).

    For UK then: week commencing, deaths (range), Rt (range)

    05-04-2020 13,900 (8,380 – 16,200) 3.05 (2.73 – 3.25)

    Now we have 3days of that already (sum = 2,453) and we know the daily ‘r’ has dropped to 115% over last week (hopefully going lower) so I doubt we’ll be much over 1,000 for next 4days and come in below his lowest estimated number of 8,380 (although I’m not sure if he is counting care homes, etc as well – but even so his numbers look too high)

  19. That should have course been “prep school boy”!

    Prop scholl for young rugby union players, obviously.

    :-)

  20. Bantams,

    Yes I heard about that and quite simply Hedley’s comments are horrendous and he can’t call himself a socialist with those view. I hope the RMT members vote him out when they can if he does not resign.

  21. Wtf is going on. School not scholl.

    Not p*ssed, honestly.

    Yet.

    Or should that be not passed yes.

    Typo man rides again.

  22. @ crossbat11

    It’s the shock of coming second (and third!) yet again on a new thread wot caused your wtf is going on!

  23. For any specific country put country name in the “search” box

    https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

    UK’s previous two weeks death totals came in within his range but on the lower end.

    To get to his “mid” of Rt at 3.05 then the daily “r” would be 1.255[1]. Now it WAS that in the last week of March and it SHOULD be that within 3weeks of lockdown so WHY isn’t it???

    Spontaneous behavioural adjustment before lockdown or the even better reason?

    [1] log(2,1.255) = 3.05

  24. The tanks have been brought in to bring order to the roads in Suffolk! This is lovely, have a chuckle:

    By Doug Trench, Defence Editor for the Suffolk Gazette

    The Army has been called in to prevent people from ignoring the lockdown and heading for coastal hotspots like Aldeburgh and Southwold.

    Three fearsome Challenger 2 battle tanks have taken up position on roads leading into each of the popular seaside resorts.

    Even kiss-me-quick favourite, Felixstowe has Reconnaissance Light Tanks on the A14 outside the town.

    The dramatic manoeuvres, dubbed Operation Numbskulls, will prevent people from thinking the strict lockdown rules do not apply to them.

    And that includes all the rich London second-home owners thinking they can bring their disease risk from the capital to sleepy Suffolk.

    An Army insider confirmed the tanks had permission to fire on any authorised vehicle trying to circumnavigate their checkpoints.

    Anyone thinking of going for a stroll on the beach is warned a Challenger 2 tank is equipped with a 120-millimetre 55-calibre long L30A1 tank gun.

    With a range of over six miles, it means those vehicles trying to get into Aldeburgh will be spotted as far away as Snape.

    Government defence spokesperson Colonel Lorraine Fisher, 34, said: “Desperate times call for desperate measures.

    “Any idiots thinking they can enjoy the Easter weekend by visiting the Suffolk coast will be met with the full firepower of the British Army.”

    Meanwhile, Norfolk has had to build its own tank to keep bank holiday visitors away from gorgeous Norfolk resorts like Great Yarmouth.

  25. self-oops. His since 3days have gone already then the “r” for the next 4days data would have to be above 1.255

    Last 3days being 1.15, 1.15 and 1.12

    Someone want to impress with the fairly simple maths and give the number for what next 4days average would need to be to get to 1.255 for the whole week (ie hit Ferguson’s mid-point), or what it would need to be to hit his low estimate.

    Perhaps NHS hospitals are going for a pre-Easter clear out of beds and we’ll see that in today’s data? But with less folks going “in” (as we see in the daily slide show) then speeding up the “outs” might help print a few high daily numbers but will create a very rapid drop off the following week – that would be a bit “naughty” IMO but there is certainly some ability to ‘manipulate’ the data.

  26. @bantams

    “Meanwhile, Norfolk has had to build its own tank to keep bank holiday visitors away from gorgeous Norfolk resorts like Great Yarmouth.”

    Impressive!

    During the Falklands a mad librarian friend of mine, who had been dismissed from the Navy Supplies division after throwing a typewriter through a window, in response to calls for everyone to support the Falklands war effort, despite what he saw as disgraceful cuts in the Navy prior to the conflict, wrote to the Times Letter column offering to knit a battleship

  27. @JimJam

    Didn’t get a chance to reply to you on the last thread when you were responding to my question about what your thoughts were about Phillips being elevated to the Shadow Cabinet. I sensed from past conversations we’d had that you weren’t a big fan! You’re right about me missing the Streeting appointment though. That is a bit of a surprise one considering I thought he’d come pretty close to quitting the party under Corbyn’s leadership.

    Phillips is a sort of heart-on-the-sleeve politician and is indeed prone to foot-in-the-mouth indiscretions, but she has a candour and authenticity I quite like. She’s enormously popular in her Birmingham Yardley constituency and gets a big personal vote in a place, it should be remembered,that returned a Lib Dem MP as recently as 2005. Phillips now wins it with stonking five figure majorities, even in bad times for Labour.

    She’s also one of those relatively few current leading Labour politicians, Starmer might be one too, who reaches out across the political spectrum. I’ve spoken to quite a few waverers and actual Tory voters who’ve said to me, “Now, if you had that Jess Phillips as leader I might consider…..” That, of course, may mean something or nothing when push comes to shove, but attracting floating and existing Tory voters will be key to any future electoral success for Labour. No other route to victory is available, it seems to me.

    It will be interesting to see how she goes in a position of real responsibility now. She has got a brief that is one of her special interests, and areas of expertise, and she is a decent media performer too. Again, Labour needs more of those.

    Streeting, Kendall and Phillips? I hear the weeping and gnashing of teeth on yonder far left hills.

    :-)

    @Bantams

    Done by Trevor Warne too. What is the world coming too, hey?

  28. @Trevs – “Also since we can’t go back in time then I expect we can also now agree that, subject to the test being reliable, then it is now time to see where we are on “population immunity” ”

    Well apart from the fact that there is already a pretty reliable test and this is where I’ve been for the last month, yes, great that we can agree.

    @leftieliberal – thanks for the Austria link. My simple ‘model’ (although I hesitate to bestow such a grand title on my musings) extrapolating from deaths suggests Austria is on something like 2.8% population infection, so a little above the survey.

  29. bantams,
    “On the virus, apparently as the virus mutates it’s less likely to destroy its host so although we’re stuck with it it should be less dangerous over time, a silver lining”

    the virus info on next strain shows it has mutated many times already.I don’t know what counts as a significant change, but I havnt heard any evidence it is behaving differently now. looking at the full data on next strain I was rather doubtful the metro report did it justice.

    The trevors,
    “Start time: patients(s) zero (eg possibly skiers coming back from Ischgl in early Feb”

    the reuters report said the first hundred or so recorded chinese cases had 17 deaths. this is wholly inconsistent with what is being seen elsewhere. the most obvious explanation is that for every death there were another 1000 (or more) infected persons in the community. so with 17,000 at large at the end of December and assuming doubling every fortnight, then there were significant numbers at large in november and earlier. it is therefore to be expected the moved to other countries much earlier than believed.

    the chinese probably only spotted the disease at all becaus they had a strange cluster of severe flu cases. Probably they had been getting a few for some time without realising it was out of the ordinary.

    All this slightly brings into question whether diseases really start off severe and get milder. it might be a pattern that we get better at recognising and counting mild cases as it goes on, and maybe get better at treating the sick so more survive.

  30. @ Danny

    More aggressive forms will emerge but they burn themselves out by killing their hosts often before they can transmit themselves effectively to another unfortunate.

  31. LASZLO

    Let us hope that is inconsistency in test results, rather than the virus !!!

  32. LASZLO

    Let us hope that is inconsistency in test results, rather than the virus !!!

  33. Bantams

    It just shows that the RMT chief is not a socialist. If he was, he could have suggested that after recovery, the PM is put on the session of the People’s Court, and expelled from human society until he recovers from his social disease.

    I think the [email protected]’s headline is worse, by the way, and I wonder what it would be if the PM was released from the hospital on Monday.

  34. @Leftie Liberal

    Sorry – no I didn’t see your post. I have been doing other things this morning. Thanks for the reference.

    Seems to me that the Nature article reinforces my view that corticosteroids are a very curious choice for one arm of the trial. I can see that they might be worth trying in combination with an antiviral and for the kind of situation you once outlined. But the way to test that is surely not to make them a single arm (and thus in competition with antivirals) but as an option allowed for a random set of the patients which cross-cuts the other options and is thus delivered with an antiviral.

    The main change I would like to see is that the researchers would see this RECOVERY trial as something that fine tuned interventions which other research suggests are highly promising. There are apparently 80 trials for chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine alone and many of these will report before ours does. What we need is that our study builds on all this and not see itself as a competitor and better because it is bigger and more scientific. For all I know the Oxford group do see it this way and have thought through the methodological and ethical implications. I would, however, like reassurance that this is the case.

    Given my new Persona I should probably write to the Times.

  35. I don’t know if this poll has been out up before:

    Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 46% (+5)
    LAB: 34% (-2)
    PC: 11% (-2)
    LDEM: 4% (-1)
    BREX: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @YouGov
    , 03 – 07 Apr
    Chgs. w/ Jan

  36. @ Laszlo

    I suspect we’re looking at crap test kits……………..I certainly hope so as I don’t want to be revisited again. It was bad enough first time around.

  37. An Australian minister has resigned after visiting his 2nd home during the lockdown.

    https://t.co/zsZ4C3w945?amp=1

    At today’s press conference, Sturgeon was asked by a London journalist what she thought of Jenrick’s(?) jaunt.

    Deflecting away from the individual [1]. she commented that people in leadership positions should be held to an even higher standard than the rest of the population.

    Needless to say, I agree with her on that.

    [1] The deflection was by saying she knew nothing of that case. Like all good politicians, she can tell an outright whopper, with absolute sincerity and honesty. :-)

  38. @Colin and @Laszlo – re the Korean ‘reinfections’, that sounds much more like false negatives int he original tests.

    Research has found antibodies from Sars in patients after 17 years, suggesting very long immunity may be possible, but 3 months for coronavirus resistance after infection is generally said to be the worst case scenario.

  39. Bantams,

    “ Defence Editor for the Suffolk Gazette!”

    Doubt that’s a full time job!

    Peter

  40. Peter

    Perhaps they are anticipating a South Wold War…

  41. @Bantams @JJ

    And sadly not the only left-winger expressing these views:

    https://www.itv.com/news/central/2020-04-07/labour-councillor-expelled-from-party-for-boris-johnson-coronavirus-comments/

    I’m afraid that it is the kind of petty-mindedness that I see so often in Labour politicians. Not long before Christmas one of our ex-councillors died (she had been a councillor from 1994-98 but there were still people on the Council who would have remembered her) and I forwarded the information I received from her son to the current (Labour) mayor, but I know that it was not passed on to the councillors and ex-councillors as is the tradition in our Borough.

    @Peter Cairns

    Yes, I was somewhat amused by that; a good way of saying what they were indirectly.

  42. CB

    “Streeting, Kendall and Phillips? I hear the weeping and gnashing of teeth on yonder far left hills.”

    You’re not wrong there, CB old chap. As you have probably gathered from past posts, my CLP, in spite of (or perhaps because of) being deep inside Brexit territory, is very left wing and I would guess something like 75% of our membership voted for RLB – myself included. Since the election of Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet appointments have been made known there has been an outpouring of vitriol on our internal communication sites.

    I have been fighting a rearguard action to try and get a number of members not to resign over the “Blairite takeover” (to give it one of its politer epithets).

    For my part, I am not too unhappy with Starmer’s election although I didn’t vote for him, but I think he can prove to be a good leader and I am certainly prepared to give him (and his cabinet) a chance.

    I suppose that, having joined the Party under Hugh Gaitskell, every leader since then has seemed like a rabid left winger to me!!!

  43. ALEC
    “the openmindedness of the NZ government to look at other countries experiences and then admit they were on the wrong track decisively and quickly may be a point to consider.”

    I think the Nee Zealand experience does far teaches ya merely that suppression works in the short term. I don’t think that was ever in doubt. Certainly none of the papers I have read seemed to doubt it.

    The problem is that it isn’t a short term strategy.

    You’re a fan of the Imperial study that finally forced HMG’a hand I believe. It’s clear that it’s the long term where suppression is hard.

    I see nothing to persuade me that this is still the harsh choice set out in that study: mitigate for three to six months while it spreads generally or suppress for at least eighteen So that it doesn’t, exiting ultimately with the deus ex machina of a vaccine.

    When we decided the former had too high a death toll to contemplate it was right to move to the latter, but what I don’t see any evidence for is that a third option is on the table along the lines of “suppress for three months and then we’re fine it’ll all magically go away”.

    I think that assistant scientific officer at the HO spoke more truth than many of his superiors dare when he characterised this as not so much dealing with it as hiding from it, and he’s right, we can’t hide for ever.

  44. ALEC
    “the openmindedness of the NZ government to look at other countries experiences and then admit they were on the wrong track decisively and quickly may be a point to consider.”

    I think the Nee Zealand experience does far teaches ya merely that suppression works in the short term. I don’t think that was ever in doubt. Certainly none of the papers I have read seemed to doubt it.

    The problem is that it isn’t a short term strategy.

    You’re a fan of the Imperial study that finally forced HMG’a hand I believe. It’s clear that it’s the long term where suppression is hard.

    I see nothing to persuade me that this is still the harsh choice set out in that study: mitigate for three to six months while it spreads generally or suppress for at least eighteen So that it doesn’t, exiting ultimately with the deus ex machina of a vaccine.

    When we decided the former had too high a death toll to contemplate it was right to move to the latter, but what I don’t see any evidence for is that a third option is on the table along the lines of “suppress for three months and then we’re fine it’ll all magically go away”.

    I think that assistant scientific officer at the HO spoke more truth than many of his superiors dare when he characterised this as not so much dealing with it as hiding from it, and he’s right, we can’t hide for ever.

  45. @ Peter Cairns

    Have a look again at his “name”………Doug Trench

  46. Times says:

    “Coronavirus lockdown: Schools could reopen within weeks”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lockdown-schools-could-reopen-within-weeks-gcnkhgnkd

    Groan says:

    “UK schools will not reopen straight after Easter, officials say”

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/apr/08/uk-schools-not-reopen-straight-after-easter-officials-insist

    So 1week extra Easter hols and reopen on 27Apr?? Or start with youngest age groups first?

    PS UK deaths today 953 is another 112% day so we’re 166% for 4 of the 7days in to ICL’s prediction. To get to 490% (Rt=3.05) then we’ll need to go up to 143% for each of the next 3days. I’m fairly sure Prof Ferguson will be happy his prediction was OTT but the question is WHY was prediction out given the impact of lockdown is yet to feed through to the deaths numbers?

  47. @ Bantams 2.29 pm

    There`s absolutely no evidence for “more aggressive forms” of the virus burning themselves out.

    You ought to have a look at the Nextstrain data. There have been so many mutations that it is a big task to measure the attributes of the different strains. And obviously we cannot tell meantime their impact months after they have been caught, or whether they leave people with immunity against further infections.

  48. Sir Keir has appointed Naz Shah as shadow minister for community cohesion.
    She said victims of abuse in Rotherham should “shut their mouths for the good of diversity “.
    This appalling appointment is a slap in the face for all the victims of those awful crimes.
    Poor. Very, very poor.

  49. @ PETERW – You might be interested in ICL report #12. Didn’t get much press but you can download their .xls file and take a look at their estimates.

    Rows 2270-2281 in ‘Mitigation’ and select ‘United Kingdom’ for ‘Country’ in ‘Suppression’ sheet and you get rows 190, 391, 592

    Quite a range of results and FWIW we entered lockdown at 0.4 deaths per 100,000 in the previous week so that would give over 40k and we didn’t go as hard on lockdown as we could have (so probably at least 50k and with no “Exit Strategy” other than staying in lockdown until a mass roll out vaccine is available OR a ‘Full China’ surveillance State[1])

    Also worth listening some of Ferguson’s more recent comments (I don’t think he likes the label “Prof Lockdown”)

    .xls file downloads from the link in “Appendix data sources”

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-12-global-impact-covid-19/

    [1] I’d be OK with a “lite” version of that (eg ‘smart ID’ cards or the ‘tracker app’) – be nice to see some polling on how popular that would be and the other ‘Exit Strategy’ options (eg the wait a 1yr for vaccine that you replied to me on in last thread – not sure you were endorsing it tho?)

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