Sky News have released a new YouGov poll of Labour party members and affiliated supporters for the leadership election. First preferences for leader stand at STARMER 53%, LONG BAILEY 31%, NANDY 16%. While on these figures Starmer would narrowly win on first preferences anyway, if you reallocate Nandy’s votes the final preferences would be STARMER 66%, LONG BAILEY 34%.

Compared to the previous YouGov poll conducted in January Long Bailey’s support is almost unchanged, while Nandy and Starmer are up 8 and 7 points respectively, presumably largely due to picking up the preferences of those who previously supported Jess Philips or Emily Thornberry. This is the first poll to include voters from affiliated trade unionists – Starmer’s support is slightly higher among affiliates than full members, increasing his lead slightly.

Looking through the demographic breakdowns Starmer leads among all age groups, among both men and women, and across all regions (though his lead is bigger in the South than the North, and bigger among older members). The most notable demographic difference continues to be in terms of social grade, with Starmer only having a lead of 4 points among C2DE respondents. The other interesting, if not wholly surprising difference is by length of membership – those people who joined the Labour party during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership are more likely to support Rebecca Long Bailey, those who joined before 2015 or have joined since the 2019 election are far more likely to support Starmer.

The poll also suggests a clear winner in the deputy leadership contest. First round preferences are RAYNER 47%, BURGON 19%, ALLIN-KHAN 13%, BUTLER 12%, MURRAY 9%, with RAYNER likely to pass the fifty-percent mark once Ian Murray’s votes are redistributed. Redistributing all the votes would give a final round of RAYNER 73%, BURGON 27%.

Full tables are here.


1,735 Responses to “YouGov poll of Labour members shows Starmer & Rayner ahead”

1 31 32 33 34 35
  1. We’ll know when things are bad when they close all pubs and bookies.

    As per Bantams’ post, we are generally well-stocked here at the best of times, and have a home delivery pending.

    I am considering growing my hair long, but haven’t decided whether to opt for NWOBHM (google it), or 90s Brit pop. No mullets allowed though.

    Plenty of booze here, as I rarely drink nowadays, but I am short of a Steam Card, if things get really bad. I’ll have to dig out the old PC for some 200x gaming.

  2. Robbiealive,
    “His line is inter alia is (a) shipping in out of London ceased, causing unemployment for seamen & a mass of London ship & trade-related trade. (b) The rich cleared off, causing unemployment among servants & all the trades that supplied the wealthy etc. ”

    I havnt read defoe’s book, though I half remember it was based upon a contemporary account someone wrote. I think he got all the accounts he could, and worked them into a story.

    Sure, those who could ran for it, taking the disease with them. Makes sense this would have caused loss of employment. However, events ran on pretty fast and what with lots of people dying, there was likely generally a shortage of people to do necessary tasks pretty quick. I have read other books about the plagues, but dont remember anyone highlighting unemplyment. The plagues spread about as fast as people could run and take it with them. I had the impression unmployment wasnt really the big worry. (But, of course, as a personal account, it might have been to some). Plague caused revolution because of the mass labour shortage in its wake. It broke down the rigid social order and created a step towards democracy.

    Just heard another spokesman on the media. They really are not expecting lots of deaths in low risk groups.

    Pete B,
    “Danny
    “For Brexit to go ahead…”
    It’s happened. Live with it.”

    It has not happend. Conservatives managed to delay it three years, with the resut all that has happened is we technically ceased to be a member. The actual leaving process has not taken place, and could easily be reversed now. It might even be halted by the government itself, though I expect thy will put that off until the last moment

    Pete,
    “Seems coronavirus has a new name among the youth…the boomer remover.”

    As I said, a proportion of the population could come round to the idea they want to spread the disease, certainly want to catch it so as to get it over with.

    Oldnat,
    “Police allowed to detain infected”

    Thats all very well, but isnt going to work without public support. Which might be why people seems to be hyping the disease now.

    Bantams,
    ” I get the impression they’re drip feeding changes rather than overloading Joe Public, after all there’s some serious lifestyle adjustments for us all coming down the line.”

    Yes to the drip feed. Not so sure about lifestyle changes. What I do see is the possibility this makes Brexit impossible.

    Statgeek,
    “‘The Gammon Stake’”

    Douglas Adams becomes more prophetic all the time.

  3. It’s all getting confusing now.
    It’s as if the government hasn’t a clue what they are doing.
    Surely instead of banning everyone from doing everything and destroying the country in the process it would be easier to ban the at-risk groups?
    How are people supposed to live if they can’t work for 12/14 weeks?

  4. @Danny

    “It has not happend.”..

    Yes it has. You were wrong at every turn. The secret Remain conspiracy only exists in your imagination.

  5. @Pete

    I would rather live by disruptive, draconian rules for 3 months if it beats this thing, rather than some crazy petri dish approach to achieve a theoretical herd immunity.

    We, and the world, need to take the hit to cure this.

  6. @JiB
    ‘I would rather live by disruptive, draconian rules for 3 months if it beats this thing, rather than some crazy petri dish approach to achieve a theoretical herd immunity.

    We, and the world, need to take the hit to cure this.’

    Of course the risk is that the elderly expect the working age population to ‘take the hit’ in order to preserve the high-risk retired… this approach would have more credibility if the cost was being borne more evenly across earnings (which are going to be pummelled – both lost now and diminished going forward) and wealth (which I suspect will, eventually, recover)

    Perhaps now would be a good time to start taxing wealth more actively, rather than Sunak giving a further tax break to wealthy grandparents passing cash down the generations…

  7. @Bigfatron

    It is the older generation that are at most risk, I doubt many of them are worrying about the budget at the moment.

    The Government needs to move quickly with mortgage payment deferrals for pressured families unable to maintain income – time for the banks to repay the general public for bailing them out in 2008.

  8. @JIB

    “I would rather live by disruptive, draconian rules for 3 months if it beats this thing, rather than some crazy petri dish approach to achieve a theoretical herd immunity.
    We, and the world, need to take the hit to cure this.”

    ——

    Problem is if it’s already past containment point in numerous countries, lockdown may not just be for three months. And is it a given you will keep being able to contain? If not, then you run the risk of health services being overwhelmed.

  9. My understanding of the government strategy is that we will get to a point of the hard isolation strategy at some point if the behavioural strategy does not work

    I think the reason that the WHO advises the strategy they do is that all the pandemics they deal with momst affect death across a brad spectrum of people. This is not ebola, it is a flu so the view is that it will mutate rather quickly and infect rather quickly

    So there is a couple of issues here. I think the approach of the WHO is to trace isolate and treat to stop the spread since that controls the spread. and go with extensive testing to find new outbreaks and quash them as necessary

    The UK approach started out as let infect everyone at a known rate since for most of us it is not a life threatening and thus building up an immunity provisions a firewall approach. But as we find with most immunisation issues such as people not taking MMR seriously even with high levels of immunity outbreaks are common.

    The real issue is that I believe if COVID-19 is here to stay then no strategy will stop it. What is important to undeerstand is thta we actually know very little about the virus as it stands which is why we have not got a vaccine

    My conclusion is that each country has produced a stategy based on the resources and acceptance of the population to the issues

  10. @Carfrew

    It can still be controlled, look at China.

    If it becomes endemic in the UK / EU, we are probably looking at severe travel restrictions for the foreseeable future if other countries in Asia and rest of the world eradicate.

  11. @JIB

    It can be controlled at the moment. But controlling it down the line when a lot more people have it elsewhere is something else. And then maintaining it for potentially a lot longer than three months.

    Not that I’m saying it definitely can’t be done. I’m just saying we need to take all the difficulties we can into account.

  12. ON,

    FWIW, Labours’ mistake imo was voting for the ref to be held which meant that they kind of had to vote for A50 to be invoked (or to give the Government power to more accurately)

    They should, and I said so at the time, have stuck to their 2015 manifesto commitment and took a position against the ref.

  13. @PTRP

    “So there is a couple of issues here. I think the approach of the WHO is to trace isolate and treat to stop the spread since that controls the spread. and go with extensive testing to find new outbreaks and quash them as necessary

    The UK approach started out as let infect everyone at a known rate since for most of us it is not a life threatening and thus building up an immunity provisions a firewall approach. But as we find with most immunisation issues such as people not taking MMR seriously even with high levels of immunity outbreaks are common.”

    —–

    Well there is also the assumption that containment will keep working. If it doesn’t, then you risk a steep peak overwhelming health services.

  14. JIB,
    “I would rather live by disruptive, draconian rules for 3 months if it beats this thing, rather than some crazy petri dish approach to achieve a theoretical herd immunity.”

    You cannot beat this thing by 3 month quarantine. Thats the point. After three months it might be no more cases, but then come autumn suddenly it is back. How many blocks of 3 months do you fancy?

    ..And Brexit would have to be cancelled. It may already.

    “It can still be controlled, look at China.”

    Everyone in the country has their movements tracked and will have more quarantines in the future. The choice is either to have constant interventions to halt the disease at massive cost, or make everyone in the UK (and the world) immune by having it.

    JIB, you voted for Brexit. To make Brexit happen, the disease in the Uk has to be neutralised, whatever it takes. If we do leave the EU come christmas and this then happened again, the UK would rapidly be bankrupt. This is no longer a bit of fun, albeit very expensive. Its now about the whole UK economy in meltdown, interest rates soaring, government borrowing impossible, call in the IMF. Thats where Brexit is headed right now.

  15. @PRTP – “This is not ebola, it is a flu so the view is that it will mutate rather quickly and infect rather quickly”

    No, it is a coronavirus, not a flu, and it is not expected to mutate quickly, but is thought to be relatively stable.

    If rapid mutation were anticipated, the UK strategy would be useless.

  16. @ danny

    This has nothing to do with Brexit, that’s just plain silly.

    The response to COVID 19 needs to be global.

    That’s why I am writing that a UK only response is utterly silly, as I doubt China, Japan, Taiwan etc are planning a gamblers chance approach that herd immunity will work via wiping out 1-5% of your population, most of whom will be older.

    The correct way to achieve herd immunity is to work rapidly at a global level to develop a vaccine.

  17. @JIB

    “That’s why I am writing that a UK only response is utterly silly, as I doubt China, Japan, Taiwan etc are planning a gamblers chance approach that herd immunity will work via wiping out 1-5% of your population, most of whom will be older.”

    —-

    The problem is if other countries are not doing what Taiwan and Japan are doing, or not succeeding in it.

  18. @ Oldnat

    “Police allowed to detain infected”

    We tried that on the lad last night who was having trouble comprehending the importance of self isolating if he caught it and he was saying he would go stir crazy if he had to stay in for two weeks. I think the message got through eventually but the conversation prior to this went something like:

    “how you going to stop me”

    “we’ll call the police and have you arrested”

    “well they don’t even arrest the druggies down the road from our nursery”

    We didn’t really have an answer to that one!

  19. Bantams

    My suggestion wasn’t that the UK Government was foolish in changing tack – but that the Trevs/Johnson/Soubry et al’s foolishness is now laid bare for all to see, and it’s not a pretty sight!

  20. Very difficult time for government decision makers. I can see what they are thinking, but I don’t think there is any way of knowing which approach is correct.

    It is logically quite feasible for both strategies to work. If so, this would be a disaster for the UK. If containment does work, it will be quicker to achieve (example so far of China) which means that infected UK will become cut off from the rest of the world, our economy will collapse, theirs will recover.

    The other huge risk for the UK approach is if the virus slightly mutates, to bypass the natural resistance, or alternatively that we find that for whatever reason, contracting this particular virus does not convey a robust or long term immunity. What if it only lasts three months, or perhaps subdues symptoms but allows you to function reasonably well as a carrier after 6 months.

    Either of these outcomes would be disastrous, as infected people would think they are immune and would readily spread infection to the vulnerable groups as cocooning efforts tire.

    We may well be too late for containment, but I think we are all having some difficulty in appreciating that this isn’t quite so much of a binary strategy choice as it seems. Partly this is media driven, as establishing a binary suits the need for two people in a TV studio to have a debate. The UK is still aiming at containment, but in a less aggressive form, because we think it is too late to nail the virus completely.

    I actually think that they have presented the strategy in a terrible, confusing manner. The almost casual slipping in of the herd immunity concept was a serious mistake. I would have preferred a ‘rings of containment’ type of approach, where we don’t appear to be abandoning containment, but instead kind of stage a managed retreat to focus on placing a protective ring around the vulnerable groups, while looking to slow the spread elsewhere, and allowing immunity to develop naturally.

    This is in reality what the government is doing, but they have made it sound like they are doing something dramatically different. That has unsettled people, and has created a significant loss of confidence.

  21. A Matt cartoon – highly appropriate for this site.

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1238742967768231936/photo/1

  22. OLDNAT

    :-) :-)

    If only they would !

    It ocurrs to me that all those Degrees in Armchair Science have not lead to gainful employment.

  23. @All
    I have mentioned Laura Spinney’s book about the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic before; last night I was reading it further and found this (p 205 in the pb version) on public health:

    “One 2007 study showed that public health measures such as banning mass gatherings and imposing the wearing of masks collectively cut the death toll in some American cities by up to 50% (the US was much better at imposing such measures than Europe). The timing of the measures was critical, however. They had to be introduced early and kept in place until after the danger had passed. If they were lifted too soon, the virus was presented with a fresh supply of immunologically naive hosts, and the city experienced a second wave of death.”

    The paragraph references an academic paper in PNAS where the whole article is available free, so I recommend people here read it. The link to it is: https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7588.full

    If they are right then countries like Ireland that are taking these measures early in their outbreaks will be less affected than the UK which has been slow to implement them. Is it any coincidence that Leo Varadkar practised as a medical doctor before becoming a politician and so can read the academic literature without having to rely on advisers to interpret it for him.

    The biggest loss of the last GE may yet be Sarah Wollaston losing her seat; her voice in Parliament could have spurred the Government into earlier action.

  24. @PeteB

    “Surely instead of banning everyone from doing everything and destroying the country in the process it would be easier to ban the at-risk groups?”

    I think the government secretly agrees with you! Unfortunately its approach is to allow oldies and other vulnerable people such as myself to be killed off. This will leave a Brexit fit population who may or may not have herd immunity but will not be overwhelming the national health service if the disease recurs.

    Personally I would like them to tweak this a bit. If we are to have this Darwinian ruthlessness, we could perhaps temper it by having a massive campaign to ensure a) that the elderly and those at risk don’t go anywhere where there is anyone else b) that health professionals and carers who are likely to come in contact with them only doing so while wearing elegant gas masks or equivalent and undergo deep cleaning the moment they go away.

  25. @Leftieliberal – a perspective from the WHO spokesperson (also a doctor)

    “We don’t know enough about the science of this virus, it hasn’t been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms.

    “Every virus functions differently in your body and stimulates a different immunological profile. We can talk theories, but at the moment we are really facing a situation where we have got to look at action.”

    This is why I questioned @Trevs assertion that we know a lot about this virus. The knowledge elements that are absolutely central to the UK’s herd immunity approach are the key areas where our knowledge is most limited. We don’t really have any idea what level or duration of immunity catching this infection will provide, yet we are basing our approach on the assumption of lasting immunity.

    I find the mantra that everything we are doing is ‘based on science’ somewhat disturbing, because it isn’t. We are developing a herd immunity strategy based on scientific guesswork, because we simply don’t have the science about post infection immunity and serology of this virus available.

  26. @LEFTIELIBERAL
    All very well, but this isn’t flu and most of the population are not in any real danger of dying. The old and vulnerable need protecting however so public health measures should concentrate on that aspect, as I think they are doing.

  27. Alec,
    ” I don’t think there is any way of knowing which approach is correct. ”

    But the only way to move forward with Brexit is if corona is over, and the only way to ensure that is if enough people have already had it.

    So whatever the merits, it is the ony way to go if you want brexit.

    “The UK is still aiming at containment, but in a less aggressive form, because we think it is too late to nail the virus completely. ”

    No, because we want the not at risk to catch it as fast as can be managed safely(ish). So we need to let it spread, but not as fast as it would naturally. And then we will wish to regulate the rate of spread if it gets too fast. Or too slow.

    ” …about the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic ”

    Yes, and the thing about it was there was no not at risk group. What is happening here is an attempt to infect all th people who are pretty safe, so they become immune and then the disase cannot spread to the at risk groups. You can only do that becaue there is a not at risk group. Which ironically means children and their parents are an ideal place to start.

  28. Personally I do find the comments on here interesting and build up my knowledge, especially with the links to people who do know their subject. Of course I’m not taking anything at face value with any degree of trust for an individual poster and I’m not going to be over critical of people making calls that might not be the right one when so much about the virus is uncertain.

    However the dividing line now seems to be that the British headline approach seems at odds with WHO which is of some concern. Whether the practicalities make much difference isn’t obvious yet.

    I think one strong criticism I would make of our approach (which doesn’t necessarily need expert knowledge, although it might lack feasibility) is that I don’t seen the government stepping in either on shortages or in mobilising a community response. Had plenty of reports from random people I know that such and such a place was out of loo roll or paracetamol or low on tinned food and obviously hand sanitiser. Surely by now we should be ensuring that those most vulnerable do not need to make several trips to the shops to get what they need?

    Additionally at some point I suspect we are going to need an army of volunteers to keep people safe. There was a chilling report in the Guardian this morning concerning Italy where it was suggested choices are already being made on who to treat with limited resources. Perhaps this is mainly down to equipment but there must be an element where volunteers (I’d be happy to volunteer) could be used to take pressure off people on the front line. We may not have the skills or training to do nursing jobs but we might have enough to do cleaning and hod carrying. People with cars could be used to deliver food and supplies and so on. I am concerned that the government does not seem to be planning to tap into the community at large. It wouldn’t seen too hard for a GP surgery to produce a lit of the most vulnerable in their area and with sufficient vetting and safeguards utilise volunteers in whatever way is needed.

  29. A ‘reactionary’ approach is the worst possible approach.

    If you can “contain” the virus via contact tracing then you’ll never get the ‘herd immunity’ BUT you might tunnel through to a vaccine. China “appear” to be having SHORT-TERM success with this approach (but are now ‘importing’ the virus and have v.lwo herd immunity so TBC if that is a better long-term approach).

    if you’ve lost control of contact tracing then that option has “expired” (ie you can’t put the genie back in the bottle). If we do have 10,000+ actual cases spread throughout the UK them multiply the reported cases by x12 and than apply a “lag” of approx 5days with an R0 of perhaps as low as 2.

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    No matter what we do now, on that maths with those assumptions, we will have 56,600 actual cases spread throughout UK by Weds (although possibly only 6,000 or less[1] reported cases) – anyone think we can apply “contact tracing” to all of those cases? (we might be able to isolate individuals/clusters early into symptoms+infectious stage but that is part of ‘delay”)

    Hence we moved to “delay”:

    B/ If you “delay” the virus (which means lowering the peak, aka ‘flattening the curve’) then you can build the ‘herd immunity’ [2] – ideally at a manageable pace BUT you will obviously have a shorter, sharper number of cases and deaths (ie it will “appear” to be a short-term failure and the political pressure to act from those who don’t understand the maths will increase – hence need for strong leadership to see the longer-term need)

    Individual/cluster “containment” (ie stay at home if showing symptoms) is part of the “delay” strategy as are progressive adoption of social distancing measures taken at the RIGHT TIME (and ideally amongst the RIGHT people [2 again])

    To think UK can use the ‘China’ approach now assumes we can successfully implement “contact tracing” (and allocate the human resources to prioritise that at expense of other things they could be doing) AND that as Westerners we’d be OK with what the ‘China’ approach means is very naive and ‘reactionary’

    Adopting the WRONG social distancing measures at the WRONG time is also ‘reactionary’ and will leave us in the awful middle ground of not having built up “herd immunity” but not having been able to ‘snuff out” the virus

    That will just “flatten the curve” too much and for too long. A ‘reactionary’ approach will mean we end up having to lockdown most of the country for months, not 2-3weeks at peak (unless we can very strictly discipline adherence and person-person transmission during lockdown to be able to get back to “contain” A – unlikely in UK).

    The economic impact will be significantly worse but the final death toll is unlikely to be any lower (unless/until a vaccine is found)

    So SLOW HAND CLAP for anything thinking Boris ‘U-turning’ on the Science is the RIGHT thing to do.

    [1] The ratio of actual : reported cases will drop towards 1 as testing increases as the virus becomes more widespread (you can model that!)

    [2] As I’ve repeatedly the said the “splitting” or demographic segmentation of the herd should be getting more focus

  30. A further desirable tweak to the government strategy is that where economically valuable individuals such as Bantams are ill (or even those who are not old but not economically valuable), they should be actively if remotely monitored to make sure they are properly recovering. Fortunately, the chances of this seem to be excellent. As I understand it, children are as likely to catch the disease as anyone but the chance of dying of it are enormously related to age with only 2 of the people who have died in Italy being under 50. Having said which can I add my good wishes to Bantams and his wife and my hopes for their future good health.

  31. @f interest to @Davwell and others? – https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/14/on-the-verge-a-quiet-roadside-revolution-is-boosting-wildflowers-aoe

    Our local authority has been experimenting with this as well in recent years, with the Bishop Auckland bypass being a riot of summer colour a year or so back.

    The article also contains a good example of the inadequacies of UK regulation and (I strongly suspect) the tendency to gold plate EU directives. The Lincolnshire project has been halted due to the EA defining verge clippings as a waste, and therefore requiring expensive and cumbersome regulations to apply to the end use (anaerobic digestion).

    This is a bit barking, tbh, as we are talking grass clippings. It’s even more barking, because if the AD plant was run as an on-farm enterprise, with farmers growing the grass to supply the AD system, it wouldn’t need expensive waste permits etc because the grass wouldn’t be classified under EU directives as waste. Same material, different legal classification, total idiocy.

    [Best example I’ve had of this; a client with a mixed farm looking at an AD plant for dealing with vegetable trimmings. EA said that trimmings from leeks, if trimmed in the field, were a crop, so no specific regulation. If leeks were brought into a shed for trimmings, on the same farm, the trimmings were a process waste, ergo tough waste handling regulation. Stupid, stupid, stupid.]

    Brexiters see this kind of thing and think that the EU waste directives are stupid, but it’s Westminster that does this. I’ve waded through plenty of these waste regs over my time, always having to go back to the EU source documents, and always finding that it’s a totally daft interpretation by UK authorities that causes the problem.

    In this case, I would recommend that Lincolnshire CC adopts the approach I recommended to a client who was being blocked from building an eco house from discarded car tyres because the EA said he would need waste permits etc. I checked the rules, and based on the source definition of ‘waste’ in EU law, I suggested that he signed a contract to buy the 5000 or so used tyres for £1 in a commercial transaction.

    The EA admitted that if these were thus classified as a saleable product, they would not be legally able to apply waste regs, although there were unhappy about this and asked me not to broadcast what we had just done. (Oops – don’t tell anyone!).

    Lincolnshire CC should sell their grass clippings for £1 as a resource. Get on with it and lets stop making life so damn complicated, and especially lets stop making life so complicated and then pretending it’s the EU’s fault.

  32. I was struggling to understand the government’s approach until I read a thread by a senior epidemiologist. It seems that the principle of the idea is to control release of infection so that the rate of cases does not exceed NHS capacity. Closing schools, events etc are a way of closing the tap.

    But it’s a horribly dangerous strategy, based on mountains of untested assumptions. And it seems to utterly fall down because there is no widespread testing of probably cases.

    Even with 100% effective disease monitoring, the exponential nature of infection growth makes it almost impossible to stably control infection rate, even in an idealised model. It seems utterly insane that there hasn’t been, from day 1, a massive testing programme to ensure that cases are identified rapidly and reliably.

    My wife and I had mild temperatures last weekend, and she has had a cough this week (now improved). But we didn’t meet the criteria for testing. We have no idea if we had had Covid19 or just some other virus (my wife always gets a cough). Are we infectious? Will we be completely safe to go out and about in a few days time? that sort of information is crucial, and is completely missing.

    South Korea, Taiwan and others have shown it is possible to get on top of even a large outbreak, if you test widely, follow up all contacts, screen or quarantine all at-risk entries into the country etc. Korea does not have severe distancing measures, just a one week delay/closure of schools and universities (now ended) – and isolation of identified cases. Their daily rate of cases is below ours and is slowing.

    It could have been contained, but the government *chose* not to try. The testing and follow-up regime was never close to sufficient. I think there is a strong chance that the scientific advice has been given as the best option, given that the government is not willing to do what is needed.

    I’m not a specialist in infectious disease epidemiologist, but I work in that area and with many who are. The consensus is that with current policy the death toll will be in the range of 0.5-2M. I hope they get their electoral comeuppance. And I *really* hope there is a hell, because they will burn in it.

    Nice windfall for the government though, in excess of 20Bn per year not needing to be spent on pensions and healthcare.

  33. @Charles

    “This will leave a Brexit fit population who may or may not have herd immunity but will not be overwhelming the national health service if the disease recurs.”

    And would vote to cancel Brexit, as they would then have the majority for remaining in the EU. ;)

  34. @Shevii – I would agree. I think there are a number of areas where I think the UK has just been very slow and poorly thought through.

    I’ve said this before, but I am still staggered that it was only yesterday when they started to tell people suffering viral like symptoms to stay at home. I find that totally bizarre. In the current situation, anyone suffering from the symptoms should have isolated themselves, not just those who had known contacts or positive test results.

    At the very least, that would have helped reduce the spread of any other bugs.

    The other big area of weakness is just what you have highlighted. How are we going to look after the 20% of the population that really cannot afford to risk getting this?

    @Trevs – South Korea (patient 31), Malaysia, Brunei and several other countries are good examples of how a single carrier at a large event can have catastrophic consequences for the rapid, uncontrolled spread. Banning large indoor events early would have massively flattened the curve in S Korea, for example, so I don’t see the judgements as being in any way as black and white here as some seem to think.

    Bear in mind that we also have no hard evidence regarding post infection immunity to covid-19. We just don’t have the knowledge yet to know if herd immunity is a viable context in relation to this virus, although some level and duration of individual post infection immunity is almost certain to result. But it might only last for three months, so after getting 70% transmission, we’re ready for the next explosion just as we head into winter.

    Hopefully not, but we’re gambling, pure and simple.

  35. @Trevors

    “if you’ve lost control of contact tracing then that option has “expired” (ie you can’t put the genie back in the bottle). If we do have 10,000+ actual cases spread throughout the UK them multiply the reported cases by x12 and than apply a “lag” of approx 5days with an R0 of perhaps as low as 2.”

    We haven’t *yet* lost control, but we are perilously close to it. Even a one week lockdown and massive ramp up of testing could yet get on top of the cases and restrict their contacts. At the very least it would greatly delay the peak.

    I’ve heard it suggested that the government is trying to make it to Easter and hope the holidays keep a lid on things. There’s quite possibly been an element of that, but without controls we will be at over 100,000 cases by then.

  36. @Robin – “But it’s a horribly dangerous strategy, based on mountains of untested assumptions. And it seems to utterly fall down because there is no widespread testing of probably cases.”

    Indeed. Without mass testing, we won’t be able to understand properly the rate of spread, or indeed know when we have achieved sufficient levels of immunity.

    In S Korea, patient 31 is probably responsible for around a third of their entire cases. It’s an example of how a single carrier at a couple of large events can completely screw up the rate of release of the infection, and mean that instead of a nice, flattened curve, you end up with a rapid and massive uncontrolled eruption that overwhelms your health systems.

  37. @Alec

    “I’ve said this before, but I am still staggered that it was only yesterday when they started to tell people suffering viral like symptoms to stay at home.”

    Just one of a litany of policy failings. And they are *still* basing policy on symptoms, when there has been evidence for a while (now replicated in multiple studies in different locations) that the majority of transmission occurs in *non-symptomatic carriers”.

  38. JIB, but who pays the bills?

  39. ON
    Loved the cartoon!

    Charles
    You replied to me, but it was to something I didn’t post. Possibly ‘Pete’?

  40. I’m feeling a little better this morning, hopefully I won’t suffer any secondary symptoms. Unfortunately as others on UKPR will inevitably get the virus, I feel I should briefly pass on my experiences thus far as it might help someone if only just a little.

    It’s the worst and most constantly irritating cough I’ve ever had in my life, it’s still with me today so has lasted from Monday night until now. I haven’t felt anything I could honestly call a fever but I have generally felt pretty sh!t all week, aching, tired and constantly lethargic. I have taken paracetamol regularly throughout which helped me with headaches and sometimes Ibuprofen for muscular aches though not all of you can take this if on certain medications. It’s another obvious thing to recommend but keeping hydrated is so mega important it needs reinforcing again and again. Hygiene, hygiene, hygiene and hygiene again is the order of the day if someone in your household is unfortunate enough to get the infection. I can’t overstate how important this is.

    The milder form of the virus presents itself in different ways to different people. NHS 111 did say the cough would only present as a dry one but I can assure you that ain’t necessarily so! I have never coughed up so much crap before! Also a fever is much more likely but is not compulsory if you get infected.

    If I can offer any other advice or help purely from my personal experience I’d be happy to help.

  41. ICL are nearly ready to test a vaccine on volunteers after successful animal trials. They need Government financial support and the go ahead to proceed with the trials which I’m sure will be forthcoming.

  42. Alec,
    “I’ve said this before, but I am still staggered that it was only yesterday when they started to tell people suffering viral like symptoms to stay at home.”

    Iam not. The goal now is to bring up infection rates to the level the NHS can cope with, and keep them there until there is no one left to safely infect.

    In another guise its called vaccination. Give a safe dose to people to protect them from a severe dose. In this situation, the dose is the same, but its effect is different on different groups. So give it to the ones who are safe.

    “How are we going to look after the 20% of the population that really cannot afford to risk getting this?”

    Thats the point of herd immunity. If the other 80% have all had it, then they cannot pass it on to the 20%. Who will then be safe.

    The other consideration is that the UK cannot afford a slow epidemic if Brexit is to happen. If it does all go wrong, then it was in the cause of Brexit.

  43. Will the Government requisition private hospitals for the duration as it seems the Spanish are going to do? That would seriously increase bed capacity, maybe non virus patients could be moved to these to clear the space that will be needed.

  44. @Danny

    “The goal now is to bring up infection rates to the level the NHS can cope with, and keep them there until there is no one left to safely infect.”

    5,000 ICU beds.
    10% of cases requiring hospitalisation (possibly an under-estimate)
    Let’s suppose they need a week each (again, possibly an under-estimate).
    That’s 50,000 cases a week that can be coped with

    60% of the UK population is approx 40M
    It will take 15 years to treat all those requiring it.

    Even a factor of 10 difference in the hospitalisation rate (which isn’t remotely plausible given the available evidence), or in the number of ICU beds or other appropriate treatment (where? Who will staff them?) still means it will take 1.5 years.

    The numbers simply don’t add up.

  45. JIB

    @”It is the older generation that are at most risk, I doubt many of them are worrying about the budget at the moment.”

    Indeed it is.
    The Herd Immunity strategy for COVID 19 relies on 60% ( 1.5 divided by 2.5 Ro) of the population contracting it. However successfull measures to exclude the aged/ill are, they are in the firing line like everyone else-but with a hugely elevated mortality rate.

    Actually I’m surprised we haven’t had a crack about payback for Brexit yet :-)

  46. Using the CMO’s estimate from yesterday of 5,000 to 10,000 cases, set against 798 identified cases means there were between 6 and 13 cases per diagnosed infection.

    Looking at the BBC website figures for yesterday morning Staffordshire, our county, though we live on the Cheshire border, had 4 diagnosed cases. Using the above multiplier that means there were between 24 and 52 actual infected people in the county. That’s out of a population of 875,219, or between 0.003% and 0.006%. Put another way that’s between 36,500 and 16,831 people per case.

    Next door Cheshire East had no diagnosed cases out of a population of 380,790

  47. @ Robin

    I’m not a statistician but surely even 10% of the population getting immunity will have some limited impact on the total numbers against no-one having immunity. When I get back to work I won’t be an infection machine any longer.

  48. DANNY

    @”You cannot beat this thing by 3 month quarantine. Thats the point”

    I agree.

    Us non experts cannot know. And when the scientists are rowing like cats & dogs ( as on C4 News last night) about Containement vs Herd Immunity-what chance do we have?

    But I’ve reached the conclusion that you have.

    In that C4 exchange last night a microbiologist in support of Herd Immunity sais simply-unless you trace & contain every case in The World , you have not eliminated it. The logic of that remark is that a successful Chinese style lockdown with enforced social & mobility exclusion would have to be followed by permanent barriers to entry at all borders.

    I would rather be facing the social distancing which my cohort will undoubtedly face if everyone else was too in a national containment But . I know that outside the virus will be rampant.and I just have to believe that this situation will give me & my loved ones the larger chance of future defence against the worlds newest disease.

  49. ‘Unlike anything seen in peacetime’: NHS prepares for surge in Covid-19 cases

    Hospitals cancel non-urgent operations in unprecedented shutdown of normal activity

    Coronavirus: latest updates
    Denis Campbell and Caroline Bannock
    Fri 13 Mar 2020 17.53 GMT Last modified on Fri 13 Mar 2020 21.24 GMT

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/unlike-anything-seen-in-peacetime-nhs-prepares-for-surge-in-covid-19-coronavirus-cases

    “Hospitals are trebling the size of their intensive care units and preparing to replace A&E doctors with other specialists as the NHS braces itself for a surge in patients whose life is at risk from the coronavirus.

    Millions of patients will have their care delayed as hospitals cancel non-urgent operations, including some surgery for people with heart and lung conditions.

    Hernia repairs, cataract removals and hip and knee replacements will be among the many procedures affected. Around 700,000 people a month in England have a planned procedure. Single rooms freed up will be used as isolation facilities for Covid-19 cases.

    One senior official told the Guardian that hospital trusts across England were moving rapidly to “a footing unlike anything ever seen in peacetime, for something that will be far harder to deal with, and will go on much longer, than even a bad winter crisis”.

    Hospital bosses and senior doctors have outlined the unprecedented range of measures the NHS is preparing to implement. The disruption could last for months.

    Trusts have started writing to those affected to alert them and to warn that they do not know when they will be able to rearrange treatments.

    Cancer and vascular procedures and other urgent operations are expected to still go ahead, as long as they are deemed to be clinically justified and not a drain on resources.

    Many outpatient clinics will be scaled back, held by telephone or video instead or scrapped altogether, affecting many of the 8 million patients who attend them every month.

    With the prime minister warning that the UK must brace itself for a sharp rise in cases over the coming weeks, hospitals have begun setting up dedicated wards.

    These include makeshift intensive care beds in operating theatres, in which to treat patients who are struggling to breathe as a result of Covid-19 and are on a ventilator.

    Senior doctors who spoke to the Guardian said they were increasingly concerned that the NHS had too few beds and specialist staff to treat the expected influx of patients with the disease.

    There are also growing fears that doctors and nurses who treat them will be putting themselves at risk. Repeated exposure to those infected could push “morbidity through the roof” among healthcare workers, the boss of one A&E unit said.”

1 31 32 33 34 35

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)