Voting intention polling straight after a general election is probably the least interesting of any voting intention polling, especially a general election that has produced a decisive result. That goes all the more when two of the main parties have leadership contests, so voters don’t know who is going to lead them or what is going to be on offer. Nevertheless, any tracker needs to start somewhere.

So far we have had three voting intention polls since the general election. The first post-election YouGov poll came out in this morning’s Times, with topline figures of CON 49%(+4), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 10%(-2), GRN 4%(+1). Fieldwork was over the weekend.

We have also had a first post-election poll from Opinium (fieldwork 15th-17th Jan), which had topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 9%(-3), GRN 4%(+1), and BMG (fieldwork 8th-10th Jan) which had figures of CON 44%(-1), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 11%(-1), GRN 5%(+2).

All of them show a bigger lead for the Conservatives than at last month’s general election, probably no more than a honeymoon and a reflection that Labour don’t currently have a leader.


2,187 Responses to “Post-election voting intention polls”

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  1. @ PTRP – Arbitration is back to the ‘chicken + egg’ thing that is crucial to the whole sequencing versus ‘everything agreed’ thing.

    The only issues they can raise are issues that could be solved if they agree to our interpretation of ‘Canada’ deal.

    PS Lewis is a bit dim but if you want to call him a “complete #@kwit” then be my guest ;)

    I am glad to see you are finally not just reading the ‘rules’ but understanding the way the game is played (and wow, even the difference between trade in goods and services). More progress – well done you! Maybe that kind of ‘progress’ will spread to others on UKPR (and those In Brussels who might have thought Boris was May, Frost was Robbins, etc)

  2. @TW

    I think I’ll see a lot of the second option I suggest too – I’m not in any way ‘clutching at straws’ here, that seems to be your specialism!

    I fully expect Johnson to succeed, at least in the medium term; Brexit has demonstrated (if it was ever in doubt) that once people’s beliefs and emotions are involved, facts and analysis tend to become secondary to the debate. I fully expect Cummings, Johnson et al to pursue the Trump/Putin playbook of disinformation, confusion and playing the base, and I expect it to work.

    What I don’t expect it to do is deliver good long-term outcomes for the country.

    And the actual question I was addressing was whether it is likely that Johnson has defined and is executing a long-term strategy; the evidence – I respectfully suggest – is that he has not, is not, and will not.

  3. @PTRP – “he think UK government does not have to tear it up and can wait. The point being is not that we go to WTO but by definition the EU wants to keep the NI/RoI border friction free so the UK downs tools.”

    Yes, I think that’s what he means, but see my last post. The EU can simply ask UK courts to direct the government or be in contempt. Would be a pretty stupid thing for a government to do, and would be very quick to resolve. A couple of weeks perhaps.

  4. @Trevs – “I am glad to see you are finally not just reading the ‘rules’ but understanding the way the game is played..”

    It always amuses me when you say things like this.

    have a careful read of my last post to you, and perhaps have a particular ponder on the fact that UK courts are duty bound to apply the WA in full in accordance with EU law, and then think about the sequencing of how at risk goods are determined.

    @BFR – yes, I’m with you on this. I think Johnson will muck this up but convince people of some great victory.

  5. @ BFR – I’m clutching my coffee mug but I did hear that a lot of Remainers thought we’d be eating grass by now and had big supplies of straw stashed away ;)

    https://shop.conservatives.com/products/got-brexit-done-mug?

    PS Turns out most folks are BOBs so a lot of those mugs still for sale. You can probably get one for free if you turn up to any local CON HQ and offer to deliver some leaflets ahead of the LEs coming up. Always keen to get a few more folks on the Boris bus (let’s hope it’s hydrogen in GE 2024!)

  6. It`s amazing but so predictable:

    The Trevors still arguing at great length as their Unicorn dream fades of a quick painless Brexit.

    The EU are simply not going to allow the UK to renege on their commitments on Ireland and trade enshrined in the Withdrawal Agreement. And because of the worsening coronavirus problem across the whole world, they are likely to soon suspend plans for UK trade negotiations.

    Reading the DTel thread on coronavirus developments, I see even the US is getting worried, with Trump ordering 2.5 bn $ spending. Likewise our UK Health minister has made new orders on what those returned from overseas trips have to do.

    I personally am getting “work” instructions on what I should do, like not to travel to many countries [which I had absolutely no plan to do!], but at least these messages are less in number than what is coming in from about 12 contenders for the Labour positions, plus their backers.

    As for the UK feel-good factor, yesterdays i newspaper had some interesting stats on businesses setting up or collapsing for 2018 and 2019.

    New businesses – London in the lead with 2110 in Camden, 2100 in Westminster, further N had Liverpool best with 1495. None listed for Scotland.

    New collapses – Aberdeen easily the worst with 3195, then Bromsgrove 2890, Cheshire East 1658, Rochdale 730.

  7. SDA

    https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/property-rental-report-scotland-2019-q4/

    In the link I see a 12-month fall of 1% for Aberdeen.

    This is less severe than the fall in house prices, and the decline in sales, that has paralleled the increasing gloom about Brexit.

    In the 2-3 minutes i spent googling out this data, I spotted some good advice – ignore what are UK trends or called national trends, to get an understanding of the situation.

  8. @TRWVOR WARNE

    It does not change the WA issue since basically the UK at some point has to either decide not to abide the WA or agree to checks be it say 3 months after or 6 months after or a year. after the RoI/NI already have customs officiers for the border Iactually saw the cars in a depot….So again I am not sure that reneging on a treaty gets you

  9. Just chucking some wording through the Brussels Thesaurus but in case folks haven’t seen it, Barnier’s mandate:

    https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st05870-ad01re03-en20.pdf

  10. @ COLIN – The rumour on “Union standards as
    a reference point”
    was true (p26, Section 15, A-94)

    In the context of the rest of the paragraph (eg “ensure a sustainable and long lasting relationship between the Parties”) its not clear that they are insisting on “dynamic” and it might be interpreted as “non-regression” – bit vague though and trust is pretty low.

    Other stuff elsewhere not encouraging IMO but certainly a tad toned down from what it might have been.

    They’ve handed some red meat to the RW press (eg ‘Elgin Marbles’ issue is in there – p12, #33) and yes they put in GATT XXIV (p8, #17) although in fairness to them they haven’t elaborated on why… YET!

    Team GB riposte on Thurs!

  11. Trevs

    “Team GB riposte on Thurs!”

    So not a UK response then?

  12. @Trevs – “its not clear that they are insisting on “dynamic” and it might be interpreted as “non-regression””

    No – it is very clear indeed.

    They are not insisting on dynamic alignment, with a much more flexible approach to maintaining corresponding standards over time.

    What they are insisting on is the right of the EU to impose sanctions, including on an interim basis (eg with immediate effect) should the UK diverge too far from EU standards, which they insist will have to be the reference point.

    None of this is surprising and it has all been trailed in advance on here. The offer of a zero tariff, zero quotas deal is there, so long as there is zero dumping.

    The UK will not get a fixed and guaranteed FTA, as the EU will seek to retain the right to erect barriers if the UK tries to diverge.

    It is very much along the lines predicted by Grozoubinski, and offers a sensible route to a reasonable deal. It would be unfair of the EU to demand alignment with all EU standards in perpetuity, just as it would be unfair for the UK to demand full access to the SM in perpetuity without guaranteeing standards.

    The solution is obvious – we get the access we want, as we are currently aligned, but risk losing it if we choose to use our power to diverge, with the EU making that choice.

    Johnson can spin this as a victory – we’ll take back control and use that control to stay closely aligned with the EU.

  13. @OLDNAT

    Northern Ireland is gone……………apparently

  14. @Alec
    “So it really all comes down to whether you think the EU thinks it has more to lose from a no deal than the UK has.”

    Can’t remember if this was posted:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/survey-results/daily/2020/02/17/8a39f/1

    Who will have upper hand in trade negotiations?

    UK: 23%
    EU: 40%
    neither: 15%
    DK: 22%

  15. Davwel

    “…..what is coming in from about 12 contenders for the Labour positions, plus their backers.”

    That’s odd.
    I’m registered as a supporter, but I’ve only heard from Keir Starmer so far.

    Wonder why.

  16. I observe and worry:

    “”Cransley School in Northwich, Cheshire – which charges pupils almost £12,000-a-year – has closed over fears pupils returning from a skiing trip to Italy may have contracted coronavirus.

    Some pupils and staff reportedly started showing flu-like symptoms days after returning home from a week-long skiing trip over half-term to Bormio in coronavirus-hit Lombardy.””

    Some will say: “a private school, with head in sand, goes against recommendations, and heads to northern Italy at half-term”.

    Others will say: “but the recommendations weren`t clear, and some were contradictory, advising normal visits”.

    Maybe this was not to cause panic or disrupt the sacred Six Nations. But I feel the Tory government has not led strongly enough on this, not putting out instructions in good time and telling us what advice from different bodies and on social media not to heed.

  17. A quick one for Patrick.

    I must have had 15 emails on the Labour elections, maybe 10 letters, and 2 phone calls.

    One for Keir from a Cockney-sounding lady, and one from Ian Murray, the lady sounding Edinburgh middle class.

    My total will be bigger than yours because of the Scotland election.

  18. @ OLDNAT – I chose the word ‘riposte’ carefully – Boris doesn’t do ‘detail’ right ;)

    Within the range of options then a blanket “forget it” is a bit too blunt (we’ll leave the RW press to suggest things like the timing and huge material difference between Germany (1939-1944) and when we took the Elgin Marbles)

    At the other end of possibilities then a detailed line-by-line response suggests we’re closer than we are.

    So ‘riposte’ IMO – certainly ensuring to point out that it is now illegal to extend the transition period (clearly Brussels hasn’t ‘caught up’ with events)

    PS I see Guardian Politics Live has now caught up but no time to respond to those who have how been told what to think ;)

  19. Back in again after clearing snow ready for the wife`s pupils arriving, I find another leadership email.

    This one is from Jackie Baillie, whose team are certainly working hard – on top of earlier emails, we have a leaflet.

    To be honest, I am not clued up on these Scottish candidates, but I could well vote for JB. She looks the opposite of a young hothead, and could help bring unity – ON may well know better.

  20. @ JAMESB – Some minor wording changes perhaps (as we have now left) but great to see some polling posts.

    So folks are giving EU a net +17 on “upper hand”

    A bit of history on that one. Back in Mar’19 EU were net +74. Last one before we left was 20Jan and EU were net +34 (see link).

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/who-do-you-think-has-the-upper-hand-in-the-brexit-negotiations/

    Not that public opinion will matter too much as no GE until 2024 and obviously the memory of the May+Robbins ‘capitulation’ era will take time (and events) to change public opinion but clearly the “trend is your friend’ on that one – thanks for posting it!

  21. @TW
    ‘So ‘riposte’ IMO – certainly ensuring to point out that it is now illegal to extend the transition period (clearly Brussels hasn’t ‘caught up’ with events)’

    To Alec’s point, this only really matters if the EU are more desperate for a deal than the UK – all evidence to date suggests that they are not.

    You keep implying that the EU negotiators are being stupid or blind, when many of us can clearly see that they are pretty savvy about their approach – this is an example of your ‘clutching at straws’, as I referred to earlier…

    Anyway, I’m sure we are boring folks with this; I’ll raise a different question:
    Do people think the collapsing stock market will have any impact on Johnson’s (and similarly Trump’s) popularity, or is it all to distant from the average voter?

  22. Davwel

    Only Baillie and Kerr went through to the 2nd round of nominations.

    Kerr committed political hara-kiri by carrying out a stunt and leaving Glasgow City Chamber after announcing that he wouldn’t vote for SLab’s budget proposals.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18253077.scottish-labour-deputy-candidate-facing-disciplinary-action/

    Many have suspected that Kerr pulled the stunt to cement his credentials with the left, knowing that he had no chance of the deputy leadership.

    So it’s Baillie or Baillie!

  23. BFR

    “Do people think the collapsing stock market will have any impact on Johnson’s (and similarly Trump’s) popularity, or is it all to distant from the average voter?”

    Good question! While I don’t think the average voter cares less about the stock market, in fact rather likes it going down because it’s a come-uppance for the better off, I assume the reason the markets are falling is not because of the coronavirus itself but because investors think it will cause a major fall in trade, production and hence big falls in profits of big companies. In other words a major economic downturn. And i don’t think voters will like that at all. Whether that means that they’ll blame Johnson or Trump, or see them as their potential salvation, is well beyond me!

  24. David Steel resigns from the LDs (and active membership of the Hol) – partly to avoid being thrown out and precipitating the resignations of his pals.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18260242.david-steel-quits-shocking-cyril-smith-child-abuse-report/

  25. Thanks ON for the update on Jackie Baillie.

    I had heard of Matt Kerr`s antics, and felt already he wasn`t suitable, either from email or posted message.

    JB might hold her own in Holyrood, but wouldn`t star in an unrelenting UK context. Just like Ruth Davidson, in my view, who got suddenly elevated in shallow Tory UK tabloids because the wins for SCON in 2017 helped Theresa May keep afloat.

  26. “”One school has closed and another has shut its sixth form after students returned from half-term ski trips in Italy.
    The two schools, both in Cheshire, made the decision on Tuesday and comes as Italian authorities continue to struggle to control an outbreak of COVID-19.

    A message to parents from Richard Pollock, the headteacher of Cransley School in Northwich, said the closure would remain in place for the rest of the week to “completely minimise” the risk of infection.

    It comes after a 29 students and five members of staff visited Bormio, northern Italy, last week, and had since been advised to self-isolate.

    A further statement from the school said a “small number” of those who went on the trip began showing “mild flu-like symptoms yesterday”.

    And a second further statement:

    “Regardless of the current Public Health England advice (that the school should remain open to all other pupils) I have decided… to completely minimise possible spread of infection and close the school for the remainder of the week,” Mr Pollock wrote.

    He added: “During this time, the school will be able to conduct a deep clean, and monitor the results of tests amongst those pupils who are currently showing flu-like symptoms.”

    So here again we have the Tory government allowing conflicting advice, and relying on individual`s consciences.

    There is a big difference between the recommendations coming from my public-sector outfit and the government advice.

    Like the difference between going up and down on that Northwich boat lift.

  27. @ BFR – “You keep implying that the EU negotiators are being stupid or blind’

    Come on, don’t be like ALEC or DANNY – when did I say anything like that[1]? Arrogant suggests some stupidity perhaps but go easy on the para-phrasing and misunderstanding.

    You write some good posts so please don’t go onto the ‘ignore’ list. Even PTRP has gone back to his old ways and insisting on a view that we’ll rip up the WA (no – Team GB will simply “interpret” it differently to Brussels and we’ll then await ‘infringement’ processes – IMO of course – note we don’t even have the JC set up yet and ‘tick tock’ as they say)

    My view is simply that EC-EU think Boris+Frost(+Dom+whole cabinet) will “do a May+Robbins” and hence they will (continue to) overplay their hand.

    We’ll then probably move further apart from any landing zone (at least for now). We MIGHT then move back to a landing zone close to current EU-Australia deal (ie MRAs + TRQs) – 50%ish confidence. Either side of that you have a ‘window’ of options from absolutely bare bones WTO to a version of EU’s deals with Japan or Canada.

    I accept that some think we’ll capitulate and get a ‘vassal state’ deal and that is theoretically possible for sure (and was my fear upon Boris winning such a large majority). Events since (eg changes to UK law, purge#3 in cabinet, Boris+Frost speeches, etc) don’t show any signs of Boris becoming a T!T (Theresa In Trousers) and although most folks aren’t bovvered about the details Dom, cabinet and the RW Brexiteer press will keep a close eye on Boris waving a pure white flag (they like the one with the red cross on it!)

    Anyway, looks like an early “riposte” is out:

    https://twitter.com/Number10press/status/1232326465137577985

    Red flag on that white flag IMO but I’m sure ALEC will say we’re capitulating again – so predictable some folks are ;)

    [1] OK maybe the Elgin Marbles thing. That was st00pid of them. Possibly very clever of Greece to ensure that stayed in the final mandate though – given they might hope where that goes next and know that EC budget discussions are ongoing:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/21/greece-to-ask-germany-for-billions-in-war-reparations

  28. @BFR – yes, I think we are back in ‘they need us’ territory. It’s all so very 2019.

    Couple of points to note on the EU mandate.
    They have diverged from the PD by dropping a commitment to secure agreement on equivalence for financial services by 2020. This is interesting, as it is something that the UK would really want to secure early and it was agreed in the PD, but clearly the EU have seen Johnson’s [email protected] about on this so have decided to make things a little tougher. Equivalence for the city will remain on the table until the end.

    On fish, they have also diverged, by going for the maintenance of existing catches, so the idea of fish for finances is back on the table.

    They are also looking for a mechanism whereby if one sides fails to comply with a ruling, the agreement (or parts of it) become void.

    Again, Johnson willy waving about the NI protocol will end up ensuring that the compliance mechanisms in the trade agreement will be tougher, and weighted more to the EU.

    That’s what you get for appearing untrustworthy.

  29. @ BFR – US is not my politey but it’s a big partner so we should all be interested.

    Trump bangs on about how great the stock market has done “on his watch” so it might be a small factor. However, democrats have always said its not important so hard to see how they can make a big deal about rich folks being a bit less rich. 2nd round effects (eg job losses, etc) not withstanding.

    Democrats seen to be going for Santa Corbyn type but Bernie is making all Corbyn’s mistakes and then some.

    Car crash 60-minutes interview, comments on Cuba, etc. He seems to have as many enemies in Clinton News Network (CNN) as Trump’s home Fox news! Democrats’ press will make their own candidate unelectable.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/politics/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-2020/index.html

    credit to McDonnell for costing up all the individual wish list items on Corbyn’s Santa wish list list but WOW.. Bernie just wings it!

    I’m no fan of Trump but I’ve accepted he’ll probably win a 2nd term – Bernie making it very easy for him!

  30. They don’t need us + we don’t need them.

    Easiest trade deal in history = WTO

    Paraphrase that!

  31. @Trevs – “…note we don’t even have the JC set up yet and ‘tick tock’ as they say”.

    The trouble with ignoring posters is that you can sometimes fail to appreciate where you’ve gone wrong.

    Your line above suggests that you still haven’t realised quite what it would mean if there is no JC.

    To repeat: The Protocol starts from a position where everything must be checked, and the JC decides which goods are to be removed from this requirement.
    The need to apply checks is defined in UK law, which would be enforced upon injunction (by the EU, if necessary) via British courts, which must, under the terms of the WA, apply the agreement as if it were UK law.

    So yes – ‘tick tock’, as they say. You’ve just got to understand who the clock is ticking for.

  32. “T!T (Theresa In Trousers)” is one of the sillier descriptors used on here – as if gender stereotyped clothing had any relevance.

  33. The Tory tabloids are carrying articles urging cuts in income tax for the better-off in next months budget.

    Meanwhile austerity bites hard, or maybe even harder, for the majority, as Aberdeen has to respond to the real-terms cut in their allocation from the Scottish Government. Which results from the likely block-grant cut from the UK Treasury to be announced in the budget..

    So a saving of £2m is proposed by closing public toilets, 4 libraries and reducing childcare and instrumental music tuition. That won`t help the budding Evelyn Glennies.

    And the utter gloom here is reinforced by Stagecoach cuts complained of the letters column – “no services to our village now on Sats and Sundays”. And the air flights – letting the London route move to Southend – gets “Ask 100 people in the city centre if they wanted to fly to Southend, and 95% would not ken where Southend was”

  34. @Trevs – BTW – just checked Annex VIII of the WA (which is legally binding on the UK, enforceable through the British courts) and the Joint Committee has to meet within 30 days of a request to meet from either side.

    Personally, I think your ticking clock on this one has largely stopped.

    It’s a red herring.

  35. UK Unionist organisation “These Islands” held a conference in Newcastle last weekend, where this YG poll was discussed.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uus6esltpr/YouGov%20Scotland%20Results%20–%C2%A0Press%20Release.pdf

    Note the non-standard indy question “If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?” with no Don’t Know option.

    Yes 45% : No 46% .

    Gordon Brown got lots of coverage in the Unionist media for his claim that “Scotland risks becoming one of west’s most divided countries”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/21/gordon-brown-scotland-risks-west-most-divided-countries

    To be fair to the Graun, the poll details hadn’t been released when that article was written, so they just reported his distortion of the results –

    “Scotland …
    is a united country” 16%
    broadly united” 27%
    has some divisions” 36%
    is deeply divided” 21%

    Moral – always check the poll details, not the spin from a passionate, partisan ex-politician.

  36. As renewables & climate change regularly come up I thought I’d post this;

    https://www.highviewpower.com/technology/

    Just did a £46m tie up with the Japanese.

    Peter.

  37. @ OLDNAT – an Theresa often wore trousers! Agreed it’s a silly term.

    It’s a bit like such terms as “Soft Brexit” or “Rem0aner” or “Gammon”- I don’t “invent” these terms but once they become part of the accepted lexicon then most folks just accept them (I thought gammon was a good one!)

    I respect Far-Left have issues with the need to be very specific about labels and get a bit ‘mill-anal’ about ones they don’t like – no way I’m ever getting into some of the stuff that LAB folks get extremely irate about

  38. @ ALEC (4:46pm) – So the clock hasn’t even started on that one then.

    Perhaps give us an example of who, when and why (and concerning what) one side will hit the “30 days” start button.

    I promise to read your reply to this post – please put the time of this post in (eg @Trevs (5:54pm) -..) so I don’t scroll past it ;)

  39. Incompetence, or just dishonesty?

    The No 10 press office says (via twitter)

    “The EU has respected the autonomy of other major economies around the world such as Canada and Japan when signing trade deals with them. We just want the same.”

    Nope. Japan had to change their regulations in order to get their deal.

    And

    “We agree the UK’s trade with the EU is significant. The US’s is on the same scale – yet that did not stop the EU being willing to offer the US zero tariffs without the kind of level playing field commitments or the legal oversight they have put in today’s mandate.”

    Nope. The EU didn’t offer the US a zero tariff deal.

  40. In the most missable news of the day: Steve Baker resigns as chair of the ERG

    Paraphrasing his resignation letter:

    – Everyone (of note) from ERG is now in cabinet or a minister (ie Brexiteers TOOK BACK CONTROL from Surrender Monkey May)
    – Boris, Dom, Gove, Rishi, Suella, Frost, etc are all doing an excellent job and so no need for ERG to exist anymore
    – Before it’s just me on the whatsapp groups I thought I’d better quit
    – Does anyone know where Wycombe is?
    – Will anyone pay me an ‘upfront’ for my memoirs?

    :-) :-)

  41. @ ALEC – I’d say copy+pasting David Henig’s post from Guardian Politics Live shows incompetence on your part but I might be wrong – could be other thing ;)

    Tick tock on a follow up to your JC comments (see my 5:52pm)

    I haven’t seen it on Guardian Politics Live so i won’t hold my breathe but I will keep checking ;)

  42. @TW
    The US is different from the UK in that most employer pensions automatically invest in the employing company’s stock, so pensioners in the US are very dependent on the performance of their ex-employers’ shares (called a 10K)

    Although with more UK pensioners relying on defined contribution schemes that are invested in unit trusts, etc., there may be more interest here in a major stock market crash than we are used to

  43. @Trevs – I follow Henig, as he is one of the sensible ones out there. Haven’t been following the Grunge of late – though you clearly are.

    I’m not sure you’ve quite grasped the point about the checks on at risk goods though. Convening the JC is not really relevant to that. I just threw in the 30 day thing to illustrate that timetables for backsliding are taken account of in the WA – in quite some detail.

  44. ” reciprocal tariff elimination for industrial goods”

    point #3 on page 2. I’d have thought most folks believe elimination = zero, non?

    9Apr’19 from EC’s website:

    https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/39181/st06052-ad01-en19.pdf

    Of course the link #10 posted in another point (#36 in link below) did relate to an older now dead deal (bit naughty!!) .. perhaps they know this one is going the same way as TTIP. That one in full (9Oct’14)

    http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11103-2013-DCL-1/en/pdf

  45. @ ALECS – Can the ALECS collective make their mind up please.

    “Convening the JC is not really relevant to that” (6:28pm)

    So is the JC is relevant or not?!?

    IMO it is but the timings (notably all the lead times) are the most relevant bit to understand and not all of those are stated in the WA.

    @ BFR – 401Ks I think you meant but that is a valid point. I’m not sure how often folks check them but I’m sure you can find a chart of S&P on google.

    Ultra low long yields good for folks with mortgages though as in US you can refinance those quite quick+easy and rates are super low.

    Which of those two is dominant? Better current cash-flow (lower mortgages) v a lower number on your annual 401K statement??

    IMO Bernie crashing the car before he’s even off the start line is more important but it’s not my polity.

  46. PTRP – RoI/NI already have customs officiers for the border Iactually saw the cars in a depot

    There have always been Customs Offices on both sides of the Border -for example on the main A1 Belfast-Dublin drag, there have always been offices in Newry in the North and Dundalk in the south. Duty rates on a whole range of things are different on either side of the border as are EU farming subsidies, tax rates, VAT rates etc etc. Up until the end of the Troubles they weren’t very visible on account of the fact that the Provos weren’t averse to quite violent actions in order to protect their large-scale smuggling operations, particularly the carouselling of grain and pigs in order tomabuse CAP subsidies, and the illegal transferring of agricultural diesel from one side of the border to the other. ( there is even a farm complex in South Armagh that every fuel delivery company is banned from having tankers within a certain distance of it, by Injunction – Thomas ‘Slab’ Murphy’s farm. He was rinsing a full tanker a week on behalf of the Provos).

    In addition, garages along the border in bandit country – such as the one near Jonesborough, the one on the Edenappa Road and dozens of others were openly targeting cross border customers. The Army did nothing because it was outside their remit, the RUC didn’t patrol in bandit country border areas and Customs and Excise couldn’t deploy without protection. The whole set-up relied on the ‘honesty’ , of lorry drivers, farmers, individuals etc voluntarily popping in to the relevant customs office of their own free will. Nobody in the north living south of the A28/A5/A4 road bothered with a TV licence because detector vans wouldn’t venture there. At Forkill RUC station ( a reinforced base containing 4 police rotated every fortnight, and a reinforced infantry company of 150 who actually went out, there was 10 year old police car, that was lifted in by helicopter, and had never ever moved in 10 years. All 4 tyres were flat anyway and the troops for a laugh had smashed one of the side windows and installed an abducted republican chicken as resident pet, which was officially handed over every six months on a 1033 issue and receipt form as Chicken, Republican Sympathiser, 1.

    Since the GFA, the border areas are quieter ( the bandit country parts took longer to quiten down) and as a result, normality has become more noticeable.

  47. Davwel

    “The [Irish] Department of Health has recommended that Ireland v Italy in the #GuinnessSixNations should not go ahead as a precautionary measure relating to the #COVID?19 outbreak.”

    So nothing is sacred.

  48. So it looks like Alec/PTRP/TW/BFR all the way to December-every day.

    Merde !!

  49. It was fairly obvious that Italy`s games would be cancelled in the 6 Nations, with precedent cancellations during the 2001 F & M outbreak.

    The tournament is played for honour, not for the winners to get an immediate monetary reward.

    But these big international games are needed to keep Rugby Union, and other sports, profitable. Some professionals in the England second-tier Championship will seeking other jobs.

  50. We who opposed the Coul Links golf course, now refused by the Scottish Government, have been getting thanked by the organisers of the petition against.

    This was run by 38 Degrees and I certainly mentioned it on UKPR at least once. So if anyone here added their signatures to 91,000 plus total as a result, I give my very grateful thanks.

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