Voting intention polling straight after a general election is probably the least interesting of any voting intention polling, especially a general election that has produced a decisive result. That goes all the more when two of the main parties have leadership contests, so voters don’t know who is going to lead them or what is going to be on offer. Nevertheless, any tracker needs to start somewhere.

So far we have had three voting intention polls since the general election. The first post-election YouGov poll came out in this morning’s Times, with topline figures of CON 49%(+4), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 10%(-2), GRN 4%(+1). Fieldwork was over the weekend.

We have also had a first post-election poll from Opinium (fieldwork 15th-17th Jan), which had topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 9%(-3), GRN 4%(+1), and BMG (fieldwork 8th-10th Jan) which had figures of CON 44%(-1), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 11%(-1), GRN 5%(+2).

All of them show a bigger lead for the Conservatives than at last month’s general election, probably no more than a honeymoon and a reflection that Labour don’t currently have a leader.


2,187 Responses to “Post-election voting intention polls”

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  1. Are we permitted to post?

  2. Thanks AW for reinstating the comments. Much appreciated. The polls are encouraging for the Tories, but hard to disagree with you about the significance and reasons for the lead.

  3. PETE B, digital spy has a fairly good politics forum.

  4. @guymonde

    You weren’t not permitted to post as such. AW has confirmed before that comments automatically close a certain number of days after the post. If he posts frequently no one notices as we always move to the latest.

    Anyway, suspect we’re in for a bit of polldrums for a little while yet. Depends how long the facade of brexit holds up and/or whenever and who labour get as a new leader.

  5. Another piece of polling caught my eye today – a week into the Impeachment trial, and Trump’s approval numbers are the best they’ve been since just after he took office.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    That site also collates some interesting polling ahead of the first Democratic vote in Iowa next week – Sanders seems to be putting some daylight between himself and Warren on the left. Whilst primary polling can be decidedly patchy, especially in a crowded field, Sanders’ numbers are going up in both state and national polls, and the first poll to put him ahead in Iowa was by Ann Selzer who has an excellent record there.

    Despite having populations that are, in US terms, roughly equivalent to those of Warwickshire and Swansea in the UK, how all the candidates perform in these two states against their polling expectations could be a substantial factor in determining who goes forward to challenge Trump in November.

    I think the latter bit is interesting because there’s been a lot said about the influence that polls might have in our own elections, but this is a situation where their influence is much stronger, and perversely will have the strongest effects (positive or negative) if they are wrong in these tiny states rather than right. A candidate expected to come 3rd or 4th with 10% would get a huge media and funding boost if they unexpectedly came 2nd with 20%, whereas one who was expected to win with 30% and came 2nd with 20% could be facing media coverage about what they need to achieve in the next contest just to stay in the race.

  6. Edge of Reason
    Real clear politics today shows 9.1% disapproval with all polls showing Trump would lose (the popular vote) to Biden with his vote share down around 75 in vital swing states

  7. Edge of Reason,
    “Another piece of polling caught my eye today – a week into the Impeachment trial, and Trump’s approval numbers are the best they’ve been since just after he took office. ”

    Not sure I could see that from the link provided. But in general it doesnt surprise me if an ideological clash motivates supporters as much as, or maybe even more than, detractors.

    As to the polling on UK parties, the problem is to analyse these headline numbers. I seem to recall after the last election, labour support was seen to continue climbing after the day, which maybe means there had been a trend in place, which continued. Or maybe it means people flock to success, and whereas that time the losing party was seen as having been succesful, this time Johnson has clearly pulled back his party from the brink of a wipeout.

    What intrigues me is there seems to have been a cease fire by both government and oppostion over brexit since the election. Maybe government feels it has nothing to gain by reminding people of Brexit, and labour isnt interested in that fight right now either, indeed sees it as not the issue it wants to fight on because it is too divisive. While, of course, not wishing to pre-judge its policy post technical withdrawal now under a new leader.

    So I fancy we are currently in a phoney peace, while Johnson delivers on his technical pomise to leave, but his implied promise about doing so on great terms has not come under any scrutiny.

    There was a R4 discussion of Brexit and industry yesterday. What I took from it was that currenly it is impossible to plan for Brexit, bcause we dont know what form it will take.

    I havnt seen recent figures on remain/leave. Should I assume, as seems likely, that while con might have a clear polling lead, remain also still leads over leave? A rather hollow success for con if so.

  8. Hmm. Seems to be a R4 news item about someone who starved to death after benefits were cut off, and his body was discovered by bailiffs. Sounds as though the welfare state didnt do a very good job. While its just one case, it is what you would expect as the outcome of long term policy of restricting benefis.

    It is a straw in the wind, but another indicator that this policy of cuts is running out of mileage. That this is likely to continue/increase as a driver of VI. If May had somehow used her 2 years to agree leaving terms and get a new trade deal in place and working, would an election held at the time of the recent one have gone decisively labour, in the absence of Brexit as a current issue?

  9. Went to an interesting lecture, purportedly about the lessons of the 1930s for today. The lecturer gave a lot of contemporary quotes about how a populist nationalism reduced Vienna from a vibrant, cosmopolitan city to a provincial German town. In that case the nationalism was accompanied by an antisemitism that drove out what was effectively the intellectual elite of Europe in terms of philosophy, aspects of physics, psychology, the social sciences and the arts, to the consequent benefit of the UK and, even more so, the USA.

    Clearly (to me) we are not subject to this double whammy. However, the point the lecturer was making was how very rapidly things change. At the moment, UK universities are among the best in the world with Oxford on some rankings coming first. (A somewhat questionable statistic, I give to please Carfrew) Academics are, however, very mobile and may well be lured away by better access to EU funds and collaborations. You can now get excellent tuition in English in a number of European universities. So how will this aspect of our national life fare in the brave new world we are just about to enter..

  10. On the subject of honeymoons, is there ever a case where a new government’s popularity stayed the same, or grew after the initial honeymoon period? In other words can a government be in power and not be subject to a loss of popularity after the initial euphoria I.e when reality bites?

  11. @JamesB If the automatic closure rule was the explanation for the lock-out, how come that people were able to restart posting before AW started this new thread? It’s a mystery to me.

  12. The big Tory lead puzzles me.

    Part of it can be explained by our UK media not being sufficiently challenging on government failings. For example, why the slowness in helping those stuck in central China compared to other countries taking their nationals out. I can well imagine that like many other run-downs in the last 10 years, our embassies have suffered. But I don`t hear the BBC asking questions about their staffing, compared to other embassies.

    Then we are still getting Nigel Farage treated as though he is a top politician running a major party. He was hardly challenged when he appeared on R4 Today this morning. And I see him given plenty of space to talk rubbish in the D.Tel:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/29/brexit-biggest-thing-hit-uk-since-english-reformation-says-nigel/

    Fancy thinking the Reformation was just an English event!. And in the UK it was a minor thing compared to the Civil War in the mid 1600s and the Industrial Revolution.

    Hopefully sometime soon Nicola Sturgeon will pass Farage in air-time received.

  13. Hireton

    As ever, Scully has a good overview of the Welsh poll

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2020/01/29/the-first-welsh-political-barometer-poll-of-2020/

    Westminster VI

    Conservatives: 41% (+4)
    Labour: 36% (-4)
    Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
    Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
    Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
    Greens: 2% (+1)

    Senedd Constituencies

    Conservatives: 35% (+4)
    Labour: 33% (no change)
    Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
    Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
    Greens: 3% (no change)

    Senedd List

    Conservatives: 32% (+4)
    Labour: 32% (no change)
    Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)
    Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
    Greens: 3% (-1)
    Brexit Party: 3% (-4)
    Others: 5% (+1)

    Looking like main process has been BxP to Con for both Parliaments and net Lab to Plaid for Westminster.

  14. [email protected]: If the automatic closure rule was the explanation for the lock-out, how come that people were able to restart posting before AW started this new thread? It’s a mystery to me.

    He must have re-enabled the thread. He has been known to extend the life of one before.

  15. @Charles
    Of course Vienna was one of the capitals of the Austro-Hungarian empire which was on the losing side in WW1 and as a result lost its empire, with the different ethnicities in it getting their own countries. That would have had a big effect on Vienna as the capital of a much-smaller Austria. I know that Austria also lost the South Tyrol and its Mediterranean port at Trieste to Italy as a result of WW1.

    So Austria would have been much poorer after WW1, which does set the scene for populists to make advances. Also it is easier for nationalism to arise if you have a mono-ethnic population (London and the major cites that were most ethnically diverse also voted more for Remain, while the northern Leave areas often had seen almost no immigration).

  16. @DavWel

    Farage is even on Channel 4 tonight: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/jan/29/tv-tonight-how-nigel-farage-pulled-off-brexit

    I think that Farage was referring to England ceasing to recognise the Bishop of Rome as supreme pontiff and our monarch becoming head of the Church. In that respect the Reformation in England was very different from in other parts of Europe, including Scotland where the new established church was presbyterian, recognising only Jesus Christ as its King and Head..

  17. I agree there’s not much point in dwelling on post-election VI, but how about the labour leadership election?

    Despite all the machinations going on, I don’t think Long-Bailey has any chance. I know one poll showed her ahead among Labour members, but I thought the You Gov one looked much more convincing (Probably just telling me what I want to hear, of course; have there been any more recent polls?). Momentum aren’t as monolithic as they think they are – the Stalinist ‘consultation’ was a big mistake – , and for some the Unite endorsement is counter-productive. The bookies odds on her are now 5/1 and look flattering. Keir Starmer is probably about right on 1/5.

    But Lisa Nandy I think does stand a chance, if she can pip Long-Bailey to 2nd place on the first ballot and Starmer doesn’t win outright first time round. In a head to head with Starmer she’d pick up all the ‘has to be a woman’ votes’, plus the ‘we need a real change’ votes, plus the ‘anyone but Keir ‘ votes, plus the “has to be a Northerner” votes, plus potentially those who are attracted to (what may be) an intelligent, warm personality. 9/1 seems generous.

  18. JIB and DAVWEL (from previous thread)

    The original economic impact report, forced into the public domain after Newsnight’s FoI request, has the details you might be interested in (figure 15 on page 54 especially).

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiz0dKegqnnAhWJSxUIHRk9BYAQFjACegQIDBAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.highspeeduk.co.uk%2FD07%2520UU%2520hs2-regional-economic-impacts%25202013.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1S6O11Thy13IcxpfwHjQUk

    In the two scenarios they show, Scotland gets a proportionate share of the £15bn benefits to the UK as a whole in one but only 40 % of this in the other, compared to the core areas which had no risk of reduced benefit.

    Scotland’s benefit was also overwhelmingly concentrated around the Mossend rail freight depot in S Lanarkshire, improvements due to increasing freight capacity on the WCML.

    As for Wales and East Anglia…sorry!

  19. So -Corbyn’s legacy a 20 % pt. deficit in VI.

    Starmer can hardly fail to improve on that.

    And as Realpolitik gets underway for Boris , Starmer will presumably have his honeymoon.

    He should be able to improve on this sort of semi-detached condescension:-

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/28/labour-sends-insulting-email-to-defeated-candidates

  20. Brilliant-and absolutely as his many supporters expected.

    Done with no fuss or histrionics too.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/constitution/news/109472/lindsay-hoyle-pledges-greater-transparency-veiled-attack-john

  21. I’m sorry,but to imply that a railway line running between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, probably the four biggest areas of population, should also serve East Anglia and South Wales is living in cloud cuckoo land. Why not add in Southampton and Plymouth as well?

    The route chosen has the maximum possible passenger coverage per route mile. Sure you could run a high speed line to Bristol/South Wales and maybe on down to Plymouth with stops at Reading and maybe Swindon, but it would have nowhere near the same potential passenger coverage. You could run an east coast high speed line to Norwich via Cambridge but it’s potential would be tiny compared.

    Network Rail is spending £bns upgrading lots of other lines under their development plans and they don’t have any responsibility for delivering HS2, that’s down to HS2 Ltd.

  22. Re the YG poll

    Agreed that VI polls at this stage don’t tell us very much – if for no other reason than folk have a tendency to side with the winners!

    If the winners come to be seen as losers, that adherence could vanish like snaw aff a dyke, but on that we’ll need to wait and see.

    In the meantime, the YG poll had a repeat of their long running Brexit – Right or Wrong? question.

    As well as the GB figure, I’ve picked out the crossbreaks of the 2 strongest Remain areas – Scotland and London.

    Right : GB 40% : Sco 26% : Lon 28%
    Wrong : GB 47% : Sco 71% : Lon 54%
    DK : GB 13% : Sco 2% : Lon 18%

    In another survey (2 hours ago) YG asked “Which one, if any, of the following would you say comes closest to how you currently feel about the result of the EU referendum?”

    Amongst the possible responses were
    Angry : GB 9% : Sco 17% : Lon 7%
    Depressed : GB 12% : Sco 13% : Lon 17%

    Those kind of mood indicators will be worth keeping an eye on during 2020.

  23. @Leftie-liberal I agree WWI must have had a massive effect on Vienna. Your comment got me looking up its history, Its impressive intellectual life built around a cafe society where people from the arts and very different disciplines knew each other survived the war at least in part (as e.g. in the Vienna circle) while the city government provided an admired model of socialist government, Not sure what to make of all that from a VI point of view but I found it interesting.

  24. re HS2: Government has now decided not to make a decision tomorrow. It had previously promised to make a decision by the end of 2019.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51299475

  25. Charles and Leftieliberal

    Both of you have good points on Vienna, but neither are quite discerning.

    While the Austrian-Hungarian Empire collapsed in 1918, Vienna remained intellectually vibrant throughout the 1920s, even the early 1930s (philosphy, Gödel, Bauhouse, etc.). So, the collapse of the empire is not an explanation.

    Even the uprising against the proto-fascists was quite intellectual (the pamphlets are fascinating). Then it was defeated and the fascists destroyed the intellectual vibration quickly.

    And indeed academics are mobile, so we can thank the Vienna circle the dominance of neokantian philosophy in Anglo-Saxon social science (Kuhn, Popper, Hayek), which held back (and still holding back) the development of social science.

    But Austria is an important example of the current tendencies. The social democrats had a massive (an unexpected) win in Burgerland last Sunday, and Vienna remains social democrat.

    On the other hand the Greens took over the place of the fascists in the coalition government, and last week agreed to ban foreign language (including parent-child communication) use in kindergartens, and expressed full support to their professor’s policies. Oddly, the EP Greens faction somehow failed to criticise them. Greens…

  26. Polling.

    The Daily Express (quelle surprise) had a “poll” on banning the EU flag in he UK. Of course, many “voted” for it in the “poll” and commented on it, including prison sentence and so on.

    Well, the “EU flag” is the European flag, approved by the European Council in 1956 (before the EEC was established) and the UK is a founding member of it.

  27. Lazlo
    Maybe they would like European supporters to wear something to appropriately identify them as enemies of brexit.
    Perhaps a yellow star attached to their clothing would be appropriate.
    If we are to move on from this nonsense it’s time to take the rhetoric and jingoism several notches.

  28. @ Laszlo

    I suspect that Austria’s easternmost region would be rather more widely-known if it was really called ‘Burgerland’.
    :-)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burgenland

  29. Laszlo

    Today, at Holyrood, SNP and SGP MSPs voted to keep the European flag flying outside the Parliament : SCon, SLab and SLD voted to have it removed.

    The successful motion was –

    That the Parliament notes that the European flag has been flown at Holyrood since 2004 as a symbol of membership of the family of European nations; recognises that Scotland and the UK will continue to be represented within the Council of Europe, and that the UK’s exit from the European Union will not change this; notes that the European flag was originally the flag of the Council of Europe and affirms Scotland’s commitment to the aims of the Council of Europe to build peace and prosperity together, while respecting common values of democracy, human rights, the rule of law and diversity; recognises the importance of continuing to fly the European flag as a sign of support and solidarity with those EU nationals who have made Scotland their home, and directs the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body to ensure that the European flag continues to fly daily at the Parliament building.

  30. @Oldnat / Laszlo

    You are both right that we remain members of the Council of Europe and will need to abide with the judgements of the European Court of Human Rights that upholds the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.

    We are leaving the EU, not Europe.

  31. JiB

    Indeed. Symbolism matters in politics, however, and the decision of SLab and, especially SLD, to oppose the motion seems unwise.

  32. James E

    :-) Stand corrected.

    I could say that my spell check ignored the plural and went for the singular :-)

    But it was actually a typing error this time.

  33. “But Austria is an important example of the current tendencies. The social democrats had a massive (an unexpected) win in Burgerland last Sunday, and Vienna remains social democrat.”
    @Laszlo January 29th, 2020 at 6:19 pm

    Thanks for this. Your comments on the Greens are also very interesting. Speaking of current tendencies I’ve just ordered this:


    http://www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.php/2019/12/not-so-free-markets/
    Thomas Philippon’s The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up On Free Markets

    Diane Coyle’s reviews are always interesting and this book is suggesting the EU is a much more competitive economy than the US. Who’d have thunk it?!

    I’ve just finished Richard Davies’ Extreme Economies which was discussed here few weeks ago (I think by @Colin), and I would highly recommend. Hopefully this new book will be as interesting, as we are soon to step into the deep end and don’t yet know if we will still be able to touch the bottom.

  34. @STEVE

    Real clear politics today shows 9.1% disapproval with all polls showing Trump would lose (the popular vote) to Biden with his vote share down around 75 in vital swing states

    Aye, the ones released today have moved the rolling average back to -7.2%, whereas it had been -6.1% and then -6.6% when I posted. These are still better than his numbers have been for most of his presidency tho.

    And I think your point about the head-to-heads with Biden may have suffered the same timing misfortune as mine did – the latest one shows them tied, and Clinton lost the last election from I think nearly 3 points ahead in the popular vote. Plus state polling of hypothetical matchups in states that don’t do primary voting for a while yet is not worth many beans.

    All of which is not to say I think Trump is going to win, or even that he’s in a good position – personally I think a fair few cards have to fall right for him to get re-elected, with almost no margin for serious error. But that wasn’t why I was posting it – my interest was that if his trial is having any polling effect so far, it seems to be a slightly positive one for him.

  35. @PETE

    Yep, other polling averages are indeed available! Fivethirtyeight’s I *think* is weighted in a couple of ways that RCP’s is not, so tends to be a less jumpy and slightly more negative for Trump, but the trend is the same – the gap in the couple of days before my post was as close or closer than it’s been at pretty much any point since early 2017.

  36. @DANNY

    “Another piece of polling caught my eye today – a week into the Impeachment trial, and Trump’s approval numbers are the best they’ve been since just after he took office. ”

    Not sure I could see that from the link provided.

    Yeah, it doesn’t seem possible to link to the page in a way that includes the chart settings I was using. But all I really did was go to the line graph and set the timescale to Max. The gap was -6.6% when I posted, and -6.1% the day before – I think from the handy plot of the net rating underneath the main graph that it hasn’t been in that territory since early in 2017.

    But in general it doesnt surprise me if an ideological clash motivates supporters as much as, or maybe even more than, detractors.

    That makes sense, but it also makes it a strange fight for the Dems to pick, if it’s more likely to galvanise his base than convert moderates.

    I seem to recall after the last election, labour support was seen to continue climbing after the day, which maybe means there had been a trend in place, which continued. Or maybe it means people flock to success, and whereas that time the losing party was seen as having been succesful, this time Johnson has clearly pulled back his party from the brink of a wipeout.

    Intuitively I’d go with the latter – in the same way as a government goes up after a convincing election win, although she was still PM then 2017 was seen as a defeat for May and a win for Corbyn, so different was the result to most expectations. Also a lot of governments don’t do very much right after they get elected, whereas May had to publicly bargain with the DUP for their support, which was likely an immediate negative factor in the polling too.

  37. @PETE

    There’s a huge range of house effects across the pollsters, hence -15 from one on the same day as -2 from another. If you look at the rolling average tho, at

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls

    and click Max on the timescale on the graph, it shows that this last month or so is the best patch he’s had since about March 2017. (It’s clearer on the net approval chart under the main line graph)

    Not an indication of future performance of course, and each time he’s closed the gap it’s tended to go up again soon afterwards. Either way, I found it interesting that this current (relatively) strong patch coincides with the impeachment trial. And as @DANNY says, probably a sign that it’s energising his supporters more than his opponents, so far at least.

  38. SDA
    “On the subject of honeymoons, is there ever a case where a new government’s popularity stayed the same, or grew after the initial honeymoon period? ”

    Nazi Germany?
    ——————-
    LeftieLiberal
    “(London and the major cites that were most ethnically diverse also voted more for Remain, while the northern Leave areas often had seen almost no immigration).”

    I don’t know whether you class the Midlands as ‘North’ but both East and West Midlands were nearly 60% for Leave, and both have had high immigration. I’m not so sure about the real North, but anecdotally places like Bradford and Rotherham have large immigrant communities.

  39. “the decision of SLab and, especially SLD, to oppose the motion seems unwise.”

    The Lib Dems are anything but liberal or democratic in Scotland, as more time passes. They vote with their unionist chums, and ignore 60-70% of the people of Scotland on the basis that there’s votes in it for them in England.

  40. Incidentally, in all the kerfuffle of Scottish Labour maybe/maybe not splitting from Lab UK, the Scottish Tories have gone mighty quiet on their maybe/maybe not plan to split from the UK Tories.

    There’s nothing quite like an election win to distract party members from their own issues.

  41. Colin,
    “So -Corbyn’s legacy a 20 % pt. deficit in VI.”

    Thanks to Oldnat for posting the latest remain/leave numbers. Given the persistent lead for remain, I would suggest the drop now in labour support is simply remainers who pre election said they were supporting labour, but right now arent doing so because it doesnt have a defined remain position (pending new leadership), and didnt deliver remain.

    The drop compared to the election outcome might give us some idea of the transferrable block remain vote which is out there awaiting whichever party is pro membership in the future. Simply confirms that labour had no choice but to take a remain stance at the election, otherwise their results would have been a lot worse.

    James E,
    “Government has now decided not to make a decision tomorrow.”

    HS2 has now reached such a scale that it happening or not might have a significant impact in nominal UK growth, just in terms of the spending, never mind whatever impact is has throuh creating a new rail line. So whether or not you want to build it might depend on whether there is going to be a Brexit recession requiring government stimulus….and we are very far from knowing how that is going to turn out. So it might now have become rolled up in the brexit problem.

  42. Edge of Reason
    I am not an expert on U.S. Polling but I understand that the rcp average appears to show Trump more popular by the inclusion of the almost daily and wildly inaccurate pro Trump Rasmussen report. This is notoriously inaccurate and for instant called the mid terms for the republicans when in reality the blue wave for the democrats was the largest in decades.
    Exclusion of Rasmussen still shows Trump as the least popular first term president ever.

  43. I do think that @EOR has a point regarding Trump’s ratings, although it shouldn’t be overstated.

    Looking at polls only of registered voters or those highly likely to vote, the net approval score has fallen from c -14% in Nov to just under -8% now. There has been a drift in polls of all adults in the same time, but this has been less dramatic – from c -15% to -12% now. This suggests that many anti Trump Americans are not registered or likely to vote, which fits with the lack of black voters turning out for Clinton in 2016, for example.

    It is true to say that Trump remains the most unpopular President of the post war era. Up to this point in their presidential terms, no other president of this era has ever failed to have any period of net positive approval ratings. This is a remarkable achievement by Trump.

    Ordinarily, this would be terminal for Trump, but equally, with payroll numbers as they currently are, ordinarily we would expect a towering presidential lead.

    I think the answer l!es in the growing partisan splits in the US, where we are increasingly looking across the pond at two countries. Trump’s base still love him. The impeachment proceedings are developing almost entirely on partisan lines, and for his supporters, this seems to have energised them, hence – possibly – the recent tightening.

    It is worth recalling though, that Trump lost the popular vote by quite a margin, and only won the presidency on the back of around 100,000 votes in three Rust Belt states.

    In 2018, the Democrats swept the suburbs, which, if repeated, means they would sweep the Whitehouse in 2020.

    But I don’t think I’ll bet the house on that just yet.

  44. Talking of HS2’s current scale, we live about 5 miles south of Crewe and during the summer I came across a compound in a field, up a quiet country lane, on the proposed line of the railway. Just a few portacabins and guys in dayglo suits. Locals say it is preparatory work for HS2. Now that’s on part of Phase 2a, north of Birmingham.

    Also on HS2, the BBC keep on publishing a route map with a blatant error. It shows the loop off the main route north towards Manchester Airport and Manchester diverging somewhere south of Crewe. That is not and never has been the plan. HS2 is intended to run into Crewe station for those Compatible trains using Crewe as a hub to go off to places served by existing Classic lines. Through HS2 trains to/from Manchester and further north will enter a tunnel just south of Crewe and go under the town. After emerging from the tunnel the loop to Manchester diverges north of Crewe, whilst the main HS2 carries on north towards Wigan.
    The map the BBC keeps using isn’t attributed to any organisation, so you have to assume it’s their own work, but they keep on using it, despite having had the error pointed out. There again they’re not the only media outlet using wrong or out of date map data. I saw one yesterday that showed the Birmingham to Crewe section as part of the overall Phase 2 and showed the Manchester link as a spur, rather than a loop. All are probably examples of London based media ignorance.

  45. Danny

    Surely there is no doubt that HS2 would have an impact on UK growth?

    The Regional Impact report linked by Sarissa (29Jan 2:43pm) gives a figure of 15BN per annum as the ongoing benefit to the economy, and estimates an additional 0.8% growth to the economy as a whole.

    But this is nothing new: the report itself is more than six years old!

  46. @ PatrickBrian

    Your roadmap for a Nandy victory sounds reasonable were it not for the fact that Starmer seems to be way ahead (possibly getting 50% on first round) and RLB a very clear second place.

    Apart from that Survation poll everything we know (yougov polls, constituency nominations) points to Starmer well ahead and RLB well ahead of Nandy. I think it’s all done and dusted to be honest and Starmers to lose.

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