Populus – Labour lead up to 6 points
The Brown boost continues in Populus’s latest poll (conducted slightly earlier than normal, this is what would be their August poll). The headline figures with changes from their last poll, conducted shortly after Brown became leader, are CON 33%(-1), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 15%(-3).
This brings Populus’s figures for Labour’s lead in line with those of ICM, and suggests Brown’s boost is still holding strong, squeezing the support of both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, for whom this is the lowest level of support recorded by Populus since they began polling in 2001.
The poll also has further evidence that David Cameron’s trip to Rwanda went down badly with the public – on average people rating his handling of the flooding at 3.75 out of 10, compared to a (admittedly not particularly shining) 5.05 out of 10 for Gordon Brown and 6.14 for local authorities.
I believe Communicate Research also conducted the fieldwork for their next poll over the weekend, so we may yet see that tomorrow.
UPDATE: Communicate’s poll is indeed out. The headline figures with changes from their last poll, conducted prior to Brown becoming Prime Minister, are CON 34%(-3), LAB 37%(+5), LDEM 16%(-2). The three point Labour lead is somewhat lower than that currently being recorded by the other pollsters, but Communicate weight past Labour voters to a slighter lower level than ICM or Populus.
Filed under: Communicate, Populus, Voting Intention
Good for Labour (again), bad for the Conservatives and particularly the Lib Dems. It now appears all those who switched to Liberal Democrat at the last election may have gone back. And: very good for others. I wonder how much of this is disgruntled Tories looking for someone else to vote for, eg UKIP?
If this were an election result, another defeat for the Conservatives.
Keith:
I think you are on the right tracks with your submission. there is certainly 3% or so that seem to have moved back from the Libs to Labour and I think they are the ones who were fed up of Blair. I think another 2 -3% who deserted Labour in 2005 compared to 2001 did so because of Iraq and they now feel more inclined to go back to Labour.
I have undoubtedly found that some previous, Cameron/Tory supporters who I have spoken to are saying they will vote UKIP or another party because they do not recognise ‘their Tory party’ in what Cameron is doing and this has undoubtedly lost the Tories 3% or so in my opinion. I think if David Davies was the leader of the Tories they would recover 3% or so just by removing Cameron.
Interesting times. I know it’s been said many times now but Cameron is looking more and more like the Tory version of Kinnock, with the exception that Kinock had the majority of Labour supporters behind him and Cameron does not enjoy that support from within his own ranks.
Communicate figures from The Independent site have Labour on 37 per cent, up five; the Tories on 34 per cent, down three, and the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent, down two.
6.14 for local authorities – that’s remarkably high. Local Councils rarely seem to get high marks for anything; even so-called model councils like Wandsworth get slated (mostly reasonably) by residents for pretty much everything other than having a low council tax.
So both Populus and CommRes are showing a marked movement to Labour, which is pretty much in line with other pollsters.
The Independent explains Labour’s lead is the result of male voters abandoning the Conservatives, with voting intentions as follows:
41% Labour (up 11%); 32% Conservative (down 8%)
Voting intention remains steady among female voters who split 35% Conservative to 33% Labour (no change on last month).
However, for Brown should he opt for an early election, there is grounds for caution. While 48% of blue-collar voters back Labour only 26% are certain to vote; 43% of professionals back the Tories yet 47% of them are certain to vote, which suggests Labour’s challenge will be to get its vote out.
Well WMA is now 33:39:16 – I wonder whether the Brown Bounce is peaking. As Anthony and others have repeatedly stated, there was bound to be one. We are now well stuck in the Silly Season (BBC headline “Activist criticises Cameron” citing someone no-one has ever heard of!) but I don’t think the Bounce will last beyond October. If the Tories keep their nerve we’ll have a real contest by the end of the year.
If Cameron was replaced, the headlines would read: ‘Disunited Tories Lurch to the Right’.
Would returning UKIP supporters make up for the centrist voters they lose?
NewsElephant, it would be interesting to see in which direction the Tory support for Cameron is going? I do feel strongly that Cameron will not be Tory leader at the next election. As we all know polls matter and so do the political parties interpretation of those polls, does anyone know what the polls were like when IDS took over and was then sacked? Are there any parallels?
Communicate has Labour 3 points ahead.
I do think there is a lot of froth in the press at the moment naturally because we have a new prime minister. Cameron appears to have gone ‘hero to zero’ in the media in a matter of weeks and I’m sure it could flip flop the other way equally quickly depending on events. Much of Cameron’s alleged weakness is quite trivial but perception is reality and that is his problem at the moment.
I believe Cameron will lead the conservatives into the next election. I don’t believe the party has the stomach to go through it all again and if they did they would be accused quite rightly of ’same old tories’. It would be a gift for Brown.
As others have said, it will be interesting. It always is when there is change. Brown needs to keep the polls in his favour and how he deals with ‘events’ as Mcmillan said will be the key. All the other polls have confirmed the perception that Brown is dour, serious, heavywieght while Cameron is a better communicator, nice guy but lightwieght. It will be interesting to see what happens.
As for the election, I don’t believe Brown will go this year, he could go next May but my money would be on May 2009 as planned (I think).
What’s interesting is that the Tories are on 33%, where they were stuck in the 2001 and 2005 elections. Labour’s increase in support has come from the Lib Dems.
I ahve seen this on politicalbetting.com about a recent YouGov poll:
“But this was, of course, a national poll and the vast bulk of those surveyed don’t live in the capitial will have no vote in May next year. Also it was asking a forced question with no option to say Lib Dem or any other party or candidate. But amongst the Londoners in the survey the split was Boris 46% Ken 40%.”
Does anyone know anything about this “poll”?
There’s some interesting detail – which again makes the CR poll look dodgy (aside from the fact that two months’ ago they were putting Labour on 27% – a 10% bounce which is something like 6 million voters!), which is that the Labour share’s clearly being dampened by the fact that only 47% of Labour supporters claim certainty to vote. Before the May elections, that figure was 67%.
Admittedly, more people are thinking about politics in the run up to an election, but it’s odd that at a time when Labour support is rebounding somewhat; in other words people are a lot more favourable to the party than they were in April – and given the blanket Labour coverage there has been, enthusiasm to vote among Labour supporters has declined by 20 points.
It just doesn’t look right to me, and if that adjustment is taken out, I suspect CR’s figures would be comparable to all the rest.
Adam – remember, the Labour supporters now aren’t the same as the Labour supporters then.
It does look rather low, but then Communicate’s proportions of people certain to vote look a bit low compared to ICM for Tories and Lib Dems as well – it’s probably something to do with question order and wording.
Looking at ICM’s last poll they have Labour certainty to vote falling slightly as well – I suspect it isn’t Labour voters becoming less likely to vote, but all those firm Labour voters from back in May being diluted with new Labour supporters brought into the fold by Brown, who aren’t quite as certain about whether they’ll vote or not.
The difference between this and the ICM and Populus polls is probably the past vote weighting – Communicate do weight former Labour voters significantly lower than ICM and Populus.
Ash I agree with your views and believe it could go either way – by the Autumn – either the Tories back in front or Labour with an enhanced lead.
Andy it is not wise to draw comparisons between present polls and earlier results which were substantially different to the polls that preceded them.
In fact analysis of recent polls indicates that most of Labour’s improvement comes from people who did not vote last time (and may not vote next time either). Also the analysis indicates that both of the major parties have picked up support from people who voted Liberal last time.
Ash, there is little chance of Brown going for an early election. The Labour party lost £800,000 last year and now owes over £26 million. In contrast the Tories and Lib Dems both made a profit last year, and are better placed to fight a campaign at least in financial terms.
Anthony, fair point, but I’m not sure I buy it entirely – simply because the zeal of the convert is usually greater (at least initially) than the long-term supporter.
Maybe they have thought about it, been won back but are still dithering about whether Gordon Brown really is a change from Tony Blair – but you’d think that having the political interest to switch their allegiance might make them more likely to actually vote rather than less enthused.
I find it amazing how confident some of us are that this Brown Bounce will last – although it could of course continue for months to come.
Most people here will know what happened after the October 1978 general election was postponed for seven months. Who is to say what is around the corner?
Cameron’s bounce lasted about 14 months, from April 2006 to June 2007. I would expect Brown’s bounce to last around the same length of time, which would mean until September 2008.
Andy S – that wasn’t a Cameron bounce: that was a labour mid-term slump. Cameron’s bounce, if that’s what you want to call it was eroding by April 2006: then Labour’s triple whammy of Prescott, Clarke and Hewitt had a massive impact in driving Labour support down and it never recovered until Brown’s election.
Andy D is right that it’s unwise to make forecasts about the sustainability of this bounce: you may be right, but I don’t believe governments a decade old can defy gravity for the length you suggest this one will.
Anthony’s previous article ‘Why voting intention polls matter’ provided a lot of interesting food for thought.
What I think seems to be coming out of the contact that I have had with the electorate though, is more pronounced that simply a ‘new leader bounce’.
I think that the ‘change’ that everyone (we are told) was looking for feels far more likely to be found in Brown than Cameron. Many of those who felt sick of Blair, see Brown as far more substantial and serious & Cameron as ‘the heir to Blair’, his appointment now looks far less inspired than it did.
I think William Hague would actually be a far more credible Tory leader than Cameron now.
When weighing up Gordon Brown, voters seem to feel they are dealing with a man of substance and experience who ‘deserves his chance’.
By contrast Cameron is seen as ’shallow’ and Campbell ‘tired’.
The conundrum for Brown is that if he reaches an election with people feeling he has ‘had his chance’ then they might be much less inclined to give him their votes than if he was still seeking their support to ’show what he could do’.
Brown may want to arrive at the election still feeling like something new.
I agree that an October election would be risky, and is an unlikely option, the polls could be so tempting by early September that he just cant resist.
I do believe that something more fundamental than a temporary transient bounce has happened here and that whilst it may level out a bit, barring any major economic disasters Brown looks set fair to get the victory he seeks.
I think the Conservative Party conference will be the big test for them. If it is overshadowed by infighting and talk of replacing the leader then I think history may repeat itself, and we could be saying the same about David Davis next Summer!
If however Cameron can keep his house in order, then I can see the Brown bounce flattening. Especially if we have more news like the so called bad news announcements on Friday, and the Europe referendum.
The big test will be the May local elections in 2008.
If Labour emerge the largest party, (gaining Tory council seats and councils) Brown may consider an early election.
If the Tories remain on top, and even make further gains, I would expect a Tory lead to be re-established.
Peter, the last four council election years have been rock-bottom for Labour – they’d be hard pressed to do worse than 2004:
Con 37
Lab 26
LD 27
(pretty similar to this year and 2006, in fact).
Given Labour went to the country and won a year after those dire figures, anything over 30% for Labour might prompt a GE. And there are several big councils teetering back towards Labour – so any improvement could net a few notable gains, which will make a modest performance look better.
Jonathan-That is another reason why Brown won’t go in October. He is a great political stratgist (according the press etc) and I think he will have a plan sorted. This could be blown of course by events but going for a quick election in Oct. doesn’t strike me as his style. He may look at the local election results in May and then go in the Autumn, Thatcher often did this. But as Adam said they are coming from a low base but it may give momentum and that can carry on through.
Interesting yesterday that Cameron made a big announcement yesterday on school discipline but it was quickly submerged by Brown’s UN speach ( the big statesman) and the suspension of the guy who asked Cameron for a peerage (alledgedly) and then criticised him when he didn’t get one. A bad news day for Cameron again. He must feel very frustrated at the moment.
I think that the main degree of Labour’s malaise was Blair and Iraq. Cameroon was lucky in respect to the fact he took over as leader while Labour was in trouble. Brown I feel has suprised people and its interesting to see Tory Support drop back to the low 30’s again.
Where the Tories go from here has more to do with how they handle these current set backs more than anything else. One could argue that Tories still really haven’t fully recovered from 1997 nor really have done the soul searching that Labour did at its nadir in the 80’s.
Brown being a pragmatic and long term player, may well suprise people and go for October, leaving him in a better place to win, have five in years in power calling an election again in Oct 2012 hoping for a successful olypmics to secure a fith Labour Term.
Re Labour’s cash problems – I note the CBI is upset about Peter Hain’s remarks on welfare-to-work.
So all this may be interesting in 3 months time when all the ‘boost’ issues will be dead. These polls are only short term amusement until time has been able to see if there is any real change.
Personally I think the removal of Blair will help Labour- he was a dead duck. People voted for Labour despite Blair, not because of him. To explain they voted for Labour the first time to get rid of the Conservatives as they were farcical under Major, they voted ‘for’ Labour as there was no reason to vote against them the 2nd time (could you vote for Duncan Smith, really?) and the final time was hardly a ringing endorsement (how rarely was Blair there on his own?).
The point was Blair and the media said ‘New Labour’ but actually that’s not true. Basically I’d go for the last ten years being an ‘anyone bar the Conservatives’ vote – we all really wanted to vote for John Smith not Blair.
The average of the final 5 polls works out at cons 33.2% 202-211 seats lab 39.2% 379-382 seats libs 16.4%41-28 seats
others 11.2% 28-29 seats.
A Lab lead over the Cons of 6% and an overall majority of
108-114.
If this continues till mid-september a mid- october election
should be a done deal.Brown will find the money, and get candidates in place.
WHY TAKE A CHANCE ON “EVENTS”
An Autumn G.E seems a very good idea for Brown to me if the polls stay this way. Brown will not want to repeat Callaghan in 78/79 so why wait – ‘events’ can always occur and usually do at the most inoportune moment! An Autumn poll would also create havoc for the Tories – they have no agreed policies and can you imagine the infighting when policies are presented to them that a sizeable proportion of their membership would not agree with.
An Autumn poll could give the Libs their best possible result along with Labour and the worst likely result for the Tories. I think this Autumn will see the gap between Labour and the Tories at the widest it will be for the rest of the Parliament.
The arguments for May 08 are of course the drop in income tax of 2% ( and please, for those who will shout – ‘it’s a bad deal for low earners on £7,500 a year or so’ – please do the maths first – the few people in the trap that earn between £5,220 and £7,720 p.a will lose £5 a week and will in real terms pay no tax at all because of tax credits for most of those workers.)There is also the possibility that there may be a reduction in interest rates around next spring, but that depends on the mainly Tory thinking Bank of England panel of course. Anything after this Autumn would see a better return for the Tories I would say.
Jack, thanks for telling us all what we really wanted to vote for: appreciate it. Of course, you’re wrong, wrong, wrong, but don’t worry about it.
First, the leader of the Tories in 2001 was William Hague, not Iain Duncan Smith.
Second, remarkable coincidence, isn’t it, that until new Labour (which maybe you’ll lack the churlishness to acknowledge was driven by Tony Blair?), Labour kept losing and that since new Labour they’ve won thrice – remind me how often before that’s happened please?
Third, I think you’re woefully misguided if you believe John Smith would have delivered a bigger Labour win than Tony Blair: John Smith was timid, weak and largely directly responsible for the 1992 defeat (via his “shadow budget” debacle). But neither of us can prove that one way or the other, so I’ll leave you to your delusions on that point.
One thing we can conclude from the current opinion polls is that, although events may come along in the future to permanently damage Labour, that hasn’t happened yet.
So Iraq and anything else in the last few years hasn’t damaged Labour as much as Black Wednesday damaged the Tories.
There’s a poll on a tory website that says 52% of a survey of activists think Cameron won’t be the next prime minister. This constrasts with a similar poll in January which said 72% thought he would be next PM.
Richard – I think the trade off Brown will be considering is that he might well do better in an election now at the height of his boost, but at the moment it’s shaky, new and could turn out to be very shortlived. If he waits till spring and has a lead then it probably wont be as big, but it would have stood the test of time.
The alternatives are probably something like go now when he’s got a chance of a great big three figure majority, but a chance that the boost in the poll is very shallow indeed, vanishes during the campaign and leaves him out of a job, or wait till spring when he might only win a majority of 40, but the polls would have been consistent over time and he could – barring events – be pretty certain of a win.
The Lab lead now is by definition soft because it’s only existed for a few weeks. Even if it’s still 6 in Septmeber it could be overturned during a campaign by accusations of GB calling an opportunistic “panic” election . Tricky charge to pull off for the Tories without seeming to not welcome an election but not beyond the collective wit. One factor that it’s hard to assess is the sheer disinterest that the British public have in politics. Big events (like GB’s coronation, the terror attacks, floods ) attract the attention of the apolitical and maybe change their minds. Little victories for DC go unnoticed except to us politics geeks. Tricky situaton for the Tories …
Keith I have taken the trouble to look at all your recent comments on this site. They are all pro Labour but there is no proper analysis. Most of us realise this and don’t treat you seriously. I think you are effectively encouraging us not to support Labour!
Actually I’m a non-voter if I can help it.
Although we should be more interested in the statistical views of larger samples than just one.
If this is the best Labour can do in the latest polls a 3% lead – when the media are having a field day attacking the Tories / i think it would be political suicide for Brown to have an early general election – as the new leader of the governing party he should be consistently leading in the polls by 7%to 9%+ – especially with the pro Brown media coverage – all the signs in the polls are that he reached his peak a week ago – just a steady drop now for him as the latest polls are showing. I reckon the polls will be back to a Tory lead by September.
I have to agree with Mike I – Keith is consistently pro Labour / grabbing at short straws i am afraid .
Mike Richardson, you miss the point that Labour are in the middle of their third term and are well ahead in the polls, on these ratings Labour would have an in creased majority of between 75-100.
As for the Tories, they should be well ahead at this stage.
And please lets argue against peoples views but lets not attack them for being pro Labour, Tory or LibDems. WE all have polictical views so lets keep it friendly, this is a great blogg and its great to have somewhere to find the latest polls and peoples reactions to them.
So Brown won’t win because he’s not far enough ahead in his honeymoon. Cameron won’t win because he was struggling to get 40% even in Labour’s mid-term slump. The Lib Dem’s won’t do well because their share of the vote is falling. It’s just like 1992, I recall that no-one was going to win that either.
As Gary says, please don’t start criticising people for being Labour/Lib Dem/Conservative – this isn’t supposed to be a site for partisan slanging matches. Of course people are going to view their own party’s chances through rose-tinted glasses, I’m sure we all do, there’s no point getting into arguments about it.
Well my one line comment certainly brought out a few partisan feelings without stating my own !
Referring to Gary Gatter’s comment that the latest polls would give Labour a majority of 75 to 100 seats is very misleading . Based purely on the latest poll it would show a majority of 70 seats – BUT , as polls over the decades have found – particuarly in the Neil Kinnock v John Major election – the Tories always do better by about 3% and Labour worse by about 3% on the day compared to the polls .
This , based on the latest polls would give no overall power to either – with Labour short by 7 seats .
That is the reason that Gordon Brown will not call an early general election based on the latest polls . He will hang on the full 2 years .
I have to say that I’ve been saying things along the lines of “Labour are doing well/Conservatives doing badly/David Cameron looking shaky” because that’s what the polls say at the moment. I’m not sure how this can be interpreted as bias.
Yes, I know some of this Labour poll lead is due to “Brown Bounce”. It’s also due to Cameron appearing to be somewhat ineffective at the moment, although that may well pass. As I alluded to elsewhere, if Cameron has a good conference that will help him and his party unite in time for the next election. It’s probably mostly due to voters returning from the Lib Dems, protest voters and non-voters at the 2005 General Election, those who can accept New Labour government but didn’t like Iraq and got tired of Blair, spin, etc.
Personally I think that Cameron may do better than Brown in an election campaign with his PR skills. Whether this is enough to win it is another question.
Mike Richardson,
I am aware of the “Labour election sag” which I usually put at 2-3% but there is also the seemingly crazy way Labour get a bonus worth 3-5% from the electoral system, which last time gave them a notable majority with 35.8% of the vote. This time around it will be fairer to the Conservatives, but even so it still means they need to get a hefty (6 or 7%) national swing to form a majority government. No incoming government since the war, apart from Blairs, has achieved that sort of swing. Mrs Thatcher achieved a swing of 5.25% to do just that in 1979, but that was against a background of the Winter of Discontent, a really incompetent and divided Labour government who couldn’t run a whelk stall, and of course Thatcher being an extremely effective politician. Cameron does not seem to have these things on his side to the same extent.
From my point of view, with a modest Conservative and Labour revival in the polls, for a notional October election
we might see a miniscule (0.5 or 1%) overall swing to Labour or Conservatives, and a larger one from Lib Dems to each of Labour and Conservatives: The net result being Labour about the same as they are now, Lib Dems down by 15-20 seats and Conservatives up to around 210 or so. And possibly a UKIP MP.
Mike I think you will find yougov got it quite accurate in 2005!
Anthony,
Fair points you raise re Browns options on a G.E. He will probably wait and that may well be sensible, right now I think I’d be a risk taker and call it quick!
Re the comments from some of the contributors re partisan views – let’s remember this is a great site and we can all have different views and different backgrounds but let’s at least respect each other too!
Some new polls are due out I believe, let’s see who’s been bounced in these!
The Electoral Calculus site has an analysis of the reasons why Labour get more seats per vote than the Tories.
(http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/index.html?conlabgap.html)
The main factors appear to be the low turnout of Labour supporters in safe Labour seats and tactical voting against the Tories.
It will be interesting to see if the advent of Cameron causes tactical voting to fade away – with the possibility that, even if the Tories get the same share of the vote, they could get more seats.
I don’t think any of the 3 main parties – Tories , Labour and especially the Liberals would relish a general election any time in the near future based on the polls.
As for a comment earlier that UKIP will benefit sometime in the future and get their first MP is way off track – UKIP are a dead force in politics – especially in the first past the post system we have in this country – NO 4th party will ever succeed on a national basis (looking at England).
A comment earlier saying YouGov got it right in 2005 – well one of the pollsters had to eventually – does’nt mean their right ,now!
Certainly one ace up the Tories sleeve in any national debate would be the West Lothian question – reminding the English of the unfair Scottish influence in Westminster and the Prime Minister having a Scottish constituency !! That would certainly notch up a few extra percentage points for the Tories .
All the polls got it right in 2005 – 1992 isn’t a good guide to accuracy now. 1992 was the reason polls now are more accurate, in 1992 all the polls were wrong (well – Harris were less wrong than the rest, but they were all wrong). That provoked an MRS inquiry into exactly why they were wrong, and since then the 1992 pollsters have either reformed their methodologies or given up and been replaced by pollsters who’ve learnt from the mistakes pre-1992.
The Polls of Polls show in Fridays Independent show
Labour 39% (+3%)
Conservative 33% (0)
Liberal Democrats 17%(-6%)
Others 11% (+3%)
Net Change after the General Election 2005.
3At the Moment a Labour lead of 6% on Average.
When Gordon brown calls a General election May 2008 or even later at May 2009.
The Lead will Erode and be probably be a 3% or 2% or Even 1% Labour Lead at the Next General Election?
6 Results Scenarios of next General Election May 2008 or May 2009?
Scenario 1
1. Labour 38%
2. Conservative 35 %
3. Liberal Democrats 17%
4 Others 10%
Labour Lead 3% Labour Majority Between 40 or 50?
Scenario 2 (More Likely Result)
1. Labour 37%
2. Conservative 35%
3. Liberal Democrats 18%
4. Others 10%
Labour Lead 2% Labour Majority Between 30 or 40?
Scenario 3 (Close Run thing)
1. Labour 37%
2. Conservative 36%
3. Liberal Democrats 17%
4. Others 10%
Labour Lead 1% Labour Majority Between 20 or 30?
Scenario 4 (Neck and Neck)
1. Labour 36%
2. Conservative 36%
3. Liberal Democrats 18%
4. Others 10%
Labour Majority Between 6 or 20?
Scenario 5 (Hung Parliament)
1. Labour 36%
2. Conservative 37%
3. Liberal Democrats 17%
4. Others 10%
Conservative Lead 1%
Hung Parliament Labour still the Biggest Party?
Scenario 6 (Others doing Well)
1. Labour 37%
2. Conservative 35%
3. Liberal Democrats 17%
4. Others 11%
Labour Lead 2%
Labour Majority Between 30 or 40?
These are Predictions at the Moment?
Do agree the Lib Dems will get squeezed.
Its easy to say that the Lib Dems will lose Bristol West, Leeds NW and Manchester Withington and Hornsey & Wood Green… but they may hold some of them and lose longer established seats like Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.
The fact that Brown is Scottish would make, at first sight, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale the most obvious prospect of a Labour gain from the Conservatives, but I think locally that David Mundell would offset any local Brown factor.
I’d say that the polls are fairly accurate and atm the Labour lead is somewhere between 5% – 7%. At an election I’d expect to come out about that, under current citcumstances.
These being Cameron’s troubles and an almost silent Lib Dems.
You have to remember Labour were punished last time mainly due to the following factors
Blair and Iraq.
In 2005 the conservatives only managed to add some 0.6% to their 2001 vote and 1.6% to their 1997 vote. I’d say that is not good. Current opinion polls give them about the same level of suppport. An election called in the next few months will return a Labour Gov with a maj between 50 – 80!
The real question for me is how would the Tories react to a.) fourth defeat and b.) not gaining enough seats to be seem as improving?
Chris Grayling appeared on News 24 Sunday and mentioned the Major Bounce of 1990 which overturned a double-digit Labour lead and lasted for around four months.
We have yet to see an equivalent scenario this time round, and until we do, we really should be cautious in our interpretations.
The Brown bounce will be revived after the Labour Conference but be eroded heavily when a Conservative manifesto is launched and after the Conservative Conference.
I would put my money on an election in May, 2008 or May, 2009.
JAKE :-
There is absolutely no way that if there were a general election tomorrow or in the future under Brown that they would achieve a 5 to 7% lead in the final result – this current polling shows a very poor bounce for Brown compared to John Major – as quoted earlier by another contributor .
Yes Iraq and Blair contributed to the earlier low levels of support in the polls for Labour / That does’nt explain the drop in the Labour vote in the last 2 bi elections and the Tory holding ground after Brown came to office / nor the now regular yearly defeat of Labour in the council elections into either 2nd or 3rd position at percentages like 26 or 27% compared to the Tories 41% . Certianly more people were involved in these than the pollsters numbers .
PHILIP :-
My bet would be a safe bet for Brown , he deos’nt take risks – he will take a Callaghan approach and go for the full 5 year term – my bet is May 2009 at the earliest !!
KEVIN RODGERS :-
Great scenario’s you have put together – non seem to show a Tory win !
The Tories need to win back England – they were already the majority party in 2005 with 150,000 more votes than Labour – this can only increase , especially while the Liberals hold a good 40 Tory seats and are very vulnerable with these on small majorities . Before 2005 the Tories held no seats in Wales or Scotland – they do now ! The SNP will erode the Labour vote even further in Scotland at the next general election letting the Tories slip through and win more seats – this also applies to Wales and Plaid Cymru .
My scenario’s would be –
if an election was called in Autumn 2007
Labour 34% Conservative 35% LibDems 17% = Labour Maj.2
if an election was called in Winter 2007
Labour 33% Conservative 36% LibDems 18% = Hung Parliament – Labour short by 20 seats
if an election was called in May 2008
Labour 32% Conservative 38% LibDems 18% = Hung parliament – Conservatives short by 15 seats
if an election were called in Summer 2008
Labour 32% Conservative 40% LibDems 19% = Conservative Maj.20
if an election was called in May 2009
Labour 30% Conservative 41% LibDems 20% = Conservative Maj.58
The electorate will eventually link Brown into everything they blamed Blair for – they worked as a team .
While I agree with the general outline of electoral possibilities above, I think Labour will start a little higher and I see no reason why the Lib Dems would be going up, unless they get themselves a new leader.
The Conservatives need to be winning marginal seats in the Midlands. According to a poll I’ve had news of, they are doing rather better in marginals than is suggested by recent national opinion polls.
Given this it seems better for Brown to go early or not at all, or perhaps wait till May next year when the tax “cuts” appear in people’s pockets, when the election can be combined with the local elections due.
The Conservatives need to get themselves together behind Cameron as much as possible, or else very quickly replace him before an election becomes due in the hope that stops the squabbling, either way would do but it needs to be decided upon quickly.
In the long term, it’s apparent that weariness with the same old crowd will erode Labour support. Or, it ought to, and indeed usually does with Governments in power this long.
There are 25 Labour Marginal Seats in the South of England swing of 2% to the Conservatives will Prevent Labour victory.
Seats to watch for are Hove, Crawley , Ealing Central and Acton, Gilingham and Rainham, Harlow, Battersea, Dartford, Stroud, Corby, northampton south, Croydon Central, Hastings and Rye, Milton keynes south and many more…..
Mike Richardson your Predictions are not going to Happen it will be another Narrow
Labour Victory or working Majority or A Hung Parliament with Labour the largest Party and doing a deal with the Liberals!
Will the Scottish Nationalists do well in Scotland will they gain off Labour and the Liberals your views on this please?
Gaining Seats like Ochil and South Perthshire, Argyll and Bute, Inverness and Nairn B.S, Gordon, Dundee West, Kilmarnock and Loudoun and Aberdeen North.
Please give me feedback!
They finish second to Labour and the Liberals will finish 3rd!
My Final Prediction
Labour 37% 36.8% 341 MP’s
Conservative 35% 35.3% 239 MP’s
Liberal Democrats 18% 17.9% 36 MP’s
Others 10% 10.0% 34 MP’s
Labour Majority of 32 Seats
Labour Victory of Course
If a Hung Parliament
Labour will have 320 MP’s
Conservatives will have 260 MP’s
Liberal Democrats will have 36 MP’s or 38 MP’s
Others will have 34 or 32 MP’s.
My Final Prediction!
The Other one was False Prospectus
My Final Analysis Says this!!!
Great Britain Vote Share
1. Labour 37% 36.8% 342 MP’S
2. Conservative 35% 35.3% 235 MP’S
3. Liberal Democrats 18% 17.8% 41 MP’S
4. Others 10% 10.1% 32 MP’S
Labour Majority of 34 Seats overall over Other Parties Under First Past the Post Unfair Voting System.
Net Difference.
Conservatives Gain 37 MP’S
Labour Lose 5 MP’S
Liberal Democrats lose 21 MP’S
Others Gain 2 MP’S
Labour up +1%
Conservative up +2%
Liberal Democrat Down -5%
Others Up +2%
Labour Lead 2% in May 2008.
Labour Lead down by 1% from 2005.
3% Labour Lead in May 2005.
Will Labour change the Voting System after winning the General Election Narrowly to prevent losing in the one in 2013 UK General Election could be under a Proportional Representation Voting System either Alternative Vote Plus or Additional Member System.
Possible 500 MPS Elected by Alternative Vote and another Elected by Regional party list PR Top Up of Regional MPS of 150 MPS Elected by PR REGIONAL TOP UP! This will be system under Alternative Vote Plus devised by Jenkins commission.
Or Another System Addional Member system possible 400 MPs Elected by First past the Post or Alternative Vote with Regional Top Up MPS of 250 Members to give a proportional Result!
My prediction…
Brown goes if Brown goes in October.
Labour on 39.7% 376
Tories on 33.1% 205
Libs on 16.4% 40
Others on 10.8% 29
Maj 102
JAKE :-
Some great wishful thinking there on your part – but you won’t see another Labour win – not for a lot of years / best they can hope for is a hung parliament at an early stage – the longer they leave it the worse theur chances.
No way should a new prime minister be sitting on 3% & 6% leads in the polls / his bounce just ain’t high enough and it won’t be long enough for him to have the confidence to go to the country.
It won’t take many more headlines like today’s about another Labour incompetent fiasco surrounding the foot and mouth outbreak to make people realise “nothing has changed”.
Let’s just watch and wait for the next polls to come through – i’ll bet anything Labour have’nt move up – more probable a move downward .
KEVIN RODGERS :-
I don’t think there is any worry about Labour changing the voting system – they won’t win the next election / even by the tightest margins they did – they would’nt have a working majority to get it through .
I think you may find the bigger changes coming from a Conservative win – they will take away Scottish MP’s rights on English matters in the Commons and possibly stop Unions funding the Labour Party – that would cripple Labour financially !
This messageboard is turning into some kind of Conservative Party love in.Only a few months ago people were posting about huge Conservative majorities.Now even though the polls,press and the political tide is against Cameron,people are posting they will win the next election.Maybe some people should take off their blue tinted glasses.
I can see what Mike Ricchardson is saying though. Typically, at this point after taking over, you would expect Gordon Brown to have a more substantive lead in the polls than the average 3-6 points most polls have given him. Assuming the polls narrow somewhat during an election campaign, as they tend to do, starting with a 3-6 point lead isn’t all that great of a lead.
Maybe this month, that real substantive breakthrough to about 10 points will come. When are the next polls due?
Lets take an objective look at the situation and not get carried away by silly season leaps in the dark. Firstly simply by appearing different Brown is gaining points, secondly he appears to be dealing with a series of unexpected ‘events’ in a resolute manner (and getting media praise for so doing) and thirdly the new cabinet team is coming over quite well with some of them being allowed a bit of exposure thus creating the impression of good teamwork. Meanwhile the Tories and Lib Dems seem quite taken aback by this robust start for Brown and they are going to have to revise their strategy quickly and effectively if they want to regain momentum. However in the background is the ‘economy silly’ and things don’t seem quite as smooth as they were with a tighter public spending round expected,tight pay settlements, higher interest rates and expected higher food costs in the winter.
There’s obviously a good case for an early election in October so that Labour can take advantage of their current up-beat situation whilst still being able to claim that an election two years early is justified by the need for a new prime minister and government to gain legitimacy through a new mandate. If there isn’t election in october then my guess is that this parliament will run it’s normak course with an election sometime in 2009 with Labour hoping that any short-term economic problems will be out of the way by then and a Brown government having achieved some good things.
Looking at the issue in straight political terms, the possibility of a good election win in October leaving the Tories and Lib Dems in disarray must be very tempting and their subsequent leadership elections giving the governmenta clear run for the following year.
To have an election in October, Brown will have to call it in early September. That gives him only one more months opinion polls to make his decision on. For Brown to take the gamble, I think he would want to see polls over the next month, showing a lead over the Tories of around 10 points. I don’t believe, on the polls we’ve seen up to now, that he would risk it with a lead of 3-6 points.
Thursday November 1st has always looked an interesting day for an election though, as it allows Brown/Labour to collect another months worth of polling evidence, before they make that final decision.
I fear that some on here are listening too much to the media spin against the Tories – This is the party that are the largest UK party in the European Assembly / The party with the most Councils and Councellors / The party that is increasing it’s share of MP’s every election / The party that has more members than either of the other two main political parties / The party that is now the largest party in England by the number of votes / The party that increased their share of the vote in the last 2 bi elections – the same party that during the last 18 months were ahead of Labour in the polls by sometimes 10% – now only 3% behind Labour in the polls after a new Prime Minister has had all the headlines and a lot of anti Tory media coverage – Not Bad i would say .
Watch the polls !! Things are gonna get exciting !
Mike Richardson you are in Dreamworld you having a laugh that the Tories will get in under Cameron its very wishful thinking?
I will probably take 10 Years for the Conservatives to get back like 2017 or Earliest 2013 but I don’t think so the Tories have had it and Labour will find some way to prevent the Tories getting into power for 20 Years!
A Labour and Liberal coalition would do nicely with a new voting System for the House of Commons Additional Member system or Alternative Vote Plus thus keeping the Tories out for 20 Years its time for Centre Left Social Liberal Politics not right wing Fascists.
We need a Written Constitution under New Labour Brown Government unlike the Tories abuse the Power of Scots and Welsh and the North and Working Man and Poor!
IF The Conservatives get into power would abolish the Welsh assembly and the Scottish Parliament and London Assembly and the Mayors and get rid of P.R in all Elections to suit Tory selves and Ban the Unions!
Ban Labour as well!
Imagine a Nightmare Tory Government I would hate I prefer to be under Labour than the Tories!
Banning Scottish MPS from Voting on English issues is plane Stupid it would lead to break up of the UK.
That’s why we need a devolved English Parliament on English issues! Elected by Additional Member System P.R with about 180 English Parliament MPS Based at either Oxford or Winchester or Cambridge or Birmingham or Somewhere else in London!
Mike Richardson stopping Unions funding the Labour Party is just crazy why not stop Businesses stop funding the Conservative Party that is hypocritical!
It Won’t happen and A Tory after the Next Election won’t Happen!
Labour has that fundamental Right!
I voted Liberal because they are more Centre Left than Labour now which are stealing Tories Cloths to remain in Power and I used to vote Labour and I did in 1997 that Great Landslide to get rid of Nasty Tory Government under Major who destroyed this country by Privatising the Railways which should never happened! British Rail was Best you knew where you are! I was Glad they did not Privatise the Post Office thank god Tory Backbenchers said enough was Enough and getting rid of Coal was a Joke we still have 300 years of Coal in England!
Well interestingly enough, Murdoch is making positive noises towards brown and hinting that they will support brown at the next election!
Murdoch will support whoever he believe’s will win.
One other issue that I believe could have a bearing on the timing of any future election, is Iraq. I think Gordon Brown will probably want to wait until British troops have pulled out of Iraq, before he calls an election. Because. whilst he has done an excellent job of keeping himself out of the limelight, while this whole debacle was going on, the fact is he WAS Chancellor while it was going on. He voted for anf more important he funded it. You can bet you life the Liberal’s in particular will be doing everything they can, during any election campaign, to link Brown into all the decisions.
Mike Richardson said: “I think you may find the bigger changes coming from a Conservative win – they will take away Scottish MP’s rights on English matters in the Commons and possibly stop Unions funding the Labour Party”.
Interesting policies but not Tory policies.
KEVIN RODGERS :-
Wow – i seemed to have stirred up a hornets nest with you – not intentionally of course / the truth can hurt !
To answer some of your points :-
You say that the Tories will probably not win again for at least 10 years and Labour will prevent it happening ! Well Labour have certainly tried everything they can so far to change the political map of this country in the last ten years – i would’nt put any trick past them to avoid democracy and the will of the people .
You mentioned a Labour / Liberal pact to keep the Tories out – well there’s a good old fashioned fascist statement to prevent the democratic process from working / i believe that there was a LibLab pact in Scotland (what a mess double socialism caused there – letting the SNP in eventually) / it also seems that the LibLab pact in Wales backfired too – no more Labour majority !! The Lib Lab pact of the 1970’s backfired nicely too – letting the Conservatives into power after double socialism devasted the country – DO YOU REALLY WISH THAT ON THE BRITISH AGAIN ?
I never mentioned banning unions – i said that the political donations from unions should be shared between all the parties – based on the union member deciding which party to contribute to . Why stop businesses funding any party they want – Labour did’nt object when they were courting all kinds of dubious foreign business people for their party funds and for personal use like mortgages etc.
We do not need a devolved English Parliament – we need the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly evolved back in to the UK – Labour has caused enogh damage to the sovereignty of this country in 10 years – let’s put it right .
You say that Labour has a fundemental right to rule !! Oh my God – this is the longest period they have ever ruled and it has been disasterous – Highest Tax in the world !! More wars being fought around the world involving British troops than in the history of this country / They have broken up the United Kingdom and caused a widening rift between British countries / The most corrupt governemnt in living memory / They have brough Terrorism to our shores / They have allowed immigration to soar out of all proportion and have no controls in place / The NHS is now at it’s worst position in it’s history – hospitals and wards closing , nurses and doctors on the dole / Houses too expensive for young ones to buy / More people leaving this country than after the war / The list goes on – this country needs a change and fast before it’s too late and we end up like 1979 with the country on it’s knees and the laughing stock of the world under Callaghan .
You mentioned privatising the railways & coal mining – Kevin I invite you into the 21st century – without privatisation they railways would have collapsed – the needed massive funding – you must have a short memory of the days under nationalisation – the trains were always late and dirty etc . As for coal mining – yes we have lots of supplies underground , but because of militant miners demanding directors wages it became unprofitable to mine her anymore – in fact if you look right across the western world coal mining is on the decline everywhere / it’s also no environmentally friendly .
The record of Labour governments over the last 100 years is very dismal – the Labour government of 1945 wanted to go back to the stoneage – stopping this country from emerging from a crippling war while our old enemies grew rich / 1960’s saw the Labour government of Harold Wilson hand over the colonies and start the rush of immigrants to the UK – while also taking away valuable foreign assets / The Labour government in the late 70’s saw the winter of discontent – where bins were’nt emptied , nurses and firemen on strike . IT’S TIME FOR A CHANGE – They’ve had their chance – 10 years of incompetence is enough / they owe me £1,000’s of pounds in taxes – wasted on futile schemes .
Well i had to respond Kevin – you made a number of points / but sadly you have had your 10 years of socialism – sanity will return very soon with a Tory government / as i mentioned higher up in a previous quote – the Tories just keep winning councils / European elections / Westminster seats / more Scottish and Welsh Assembly seats – the march continues
However, would we not expect the Tories to be winning by-elections if they were going to win a general election?
Although it is true that we haven’t had any by-elections recently in key marginal seats, which is where the election will really matter.
Mike Richardson’s reply to Kevin Rodgers brilliantly exposed the threadbare cupboard which is the current Tory Party. But, I suppose that if you haven’t really got any policies this sort of negativity is all you’ve got left
Mike Richards – “The most corrupt governemnt in living memory”.Pray tell me Mike….how many Labour MP’s are there in prison at the moment????
NONE! However, some would say that there should be, including the former Prime Minsister….
I expect there will be some in prison eventually.
When’s the next poll?! Oh ee isn’t this exciting. These figures are significantly up on early this summer. Labour could easily be the party making the gains nex time, if Gordon has the courage to name the date.
In response to Mike Richardson’s diatribe, all I’m going to say is that the notion of this country is on its knees is laughable.
Can we have a bit more objective analysis of the opinion polls and less hackery around here please?
I think people should remember that it is the middle of summer and most people are not thinking of politics.
If anyone is thinking of politics it is worrying about crime which none of the parties is making much of a fist of. I wonder how many of the people stuck in the traffic jam after the murder in Warwickshire were thinking positively of Brown.
However I was impressed with the way he took charge of the Foot and Mouth problem.That’s the sort of thing that impresses the UK voters. IMHO they tend to vote for a strong leader which explains Cameron’s problem.