It is the eve of the election and I’ll be rounding up the final call polls here as they come in.

YouGov already released their final call prediction last night in the form of their updated MRP projection. The voting intentions in the model were CON 43%, LAB 34%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 3%. As an MRP, it also included projected numbers of seats, with the Conservatives winning 339, Labour 231, SNP 41, Liberal Democrats 15, Plaid 4 and the Greens 1. Fieldwork was the 4th to the 10th, but the model gives more weight to the more recent data. The full details of the model are here.

ICM also released their final poll yesterday, with topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was conducted Sunday to monday, and full tables are here.

Opinium‘s final voting intention figures are CON 45%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 2%, GRN 2%. The Conservatives have a twelve point lead (though in their write up Opinium point out that this is because the Tory shares has been rounded up and Labour’s share rounded down, so before rounding it was actually an 11 point lead). In recent weeks Opinium have tended to show the biggest leads for the Conservatives, so this reflects a slight narrowing since their previous poll. Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday, so would have been wholly after the Leeds NHS story on Monday. Full tables are here

BMG‘s final figures are CON 41%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%. Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and doesn’t show any change since BMG’s figures last week.

Panelbase‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 34%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%, GRN 3%. Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday so, like Opinium, would have been wholly after the Leeds NHS story (though unlike Opinium, Panelbase don’t show any tightening since their previous poll). Full tables are here.

Matt Singh’s NCPolitics have conducted a final poll on behalf of Bloomberg. That has final figures of CON 43%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 3%. Their full tables are here.

There was also a poll by Qriously (a company that does polls in smartphone adverts, who is a member of the BPC). Fieldwork for that was conducted Thursday to Sunday, and had topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 30%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 4%. Details are here

SavantaComRes have final figures of CON 41%, LAB 36%, LDEM 12%. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday. The five point lead is the lowest any company has given the Conservatives during the campaign, and would likely be in hung Parliament territory (though ComRes have typically given some of the lower Tory leads). Full tables are here.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 44%, LAB 32%, LDEM 13%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday. The twelve point lead is unchanged from Kantar’s last poll, though the Lib Dems have fallen a little. Full results are here.

Deltapoll‘s final poll CON 45%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was also Monday to Wednesday. Full results are here.

Survation published their final call overnight. Topline figures there are CON 44.5%, LAB 33.7%, LDEM 9.3%, BREX 3.1%. Their poll also included an oversized sample for Scotland, to provide seperate Scottish figures – they were SNP 43.2%, CON 27.9%, LAB 19.8%, LDEM 7.3%. Full details are here.

Finally, Ipsos MORI published their final call in this morning’s Standard. Their final figures are CON 44%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, GRN 3%, BREX 2%. Full tables are here. (And, since people always ask – Ipsos MORI publish on election day because they partner with the Evening Standard, who publish at lunchtime. As you’ll know, it’s illegal to publish an exit poll until after voting stops at 10pm. However, it’s perfectly legal to publish a poll that was conducted before voting began)


3,032 Responses to “Final call election polls”

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  1. PROF Howard
    and OLDNAT

    When or if you find the time may I recommend watching the Pilger film. It gives a good overview of the long, stealthy approach to privatising NHS England by the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties. All the while the parties are protesting their love for the NHS.

    On this thread I have posted links to articles that show pieces of the process. PFI, for example, the Health and Social Care Act of 2012, the introduction of Optum to advise the new NHS regions and the recruitment of a senior Optum executive to head up NHS England.

    There is also a Guardian piece on the efforts made by private health providers to entice oncology consultants away from the NHS into private practice. Over time, the resources available to the NHS England will be leeched away through PFI, reduced budgets and competition. In those circumstances, the people who can afford it will increasingly use private care. That will, in turn, reduce the block grant calculation for Scotland and NI because it is private spending not NHS spending. That is where the danger lies – in a two tier system.

  2. One thing I haven’t seen anywhere is the relevant strengths of the various factions in the two main parties after this election. With the tories I understand that until we get to know the new influx we won’t know which wing of the party they lean to but I would have thought it was much easier with the labour party, I suspect that the PLP has become more left leaning while still being predominantly centrist but haven’t seen any analysis. Going back to the tories, quite a few talking heads are suggesting that the new influx are more industry minded than finance minded, anyone know if this is true?

  3. @mbruno

    IIRC the EU Withdrawal Act made provision that the Scottish Parliament would be deemed to have given consent on Brexit issues if they gave consent or refused consent.

    In any event, the Sewel Convention about legislative consent has been ignored by Westminster already in this process.

    The devolution settlement has been fundamentally undermined by the UK Government and the Westminster Parliament.

  4. Thanks Sam. That makes sense and is a worry.

    Looks like NI Assembly/Executive will be up and running soon, not that this will stop the things you mention.

  5. OLDNAT

    Edwin Arlington Robinson

    Yes, the penultimate verse is what many people do. But then there’s Richard Cory.

    Richard Cory
    BY EDWIN ARLINGTON ROBINSON

    Whenever Richard Cory went down town,
    We people on the pavement looked at him:
    He was a gentleman from sole to crown,
    Clean favored, and imperially slim.

    And he was always quietly arrayed,
    And he was always human when he talked;
    But still he fluttered pulses when he said,
    “Good-morning,” and he glittered when he walked.

    And he was rich—yes, richer than a king—
    And admirably schooled in every grace:
    In fine, we thought that he was everything
    To make us wish that we were in his place.

    So on we worked, and waited for the light,
    And went without the meat, and cursed the bread;
    And Richard Cory, one calm summer night,
    Went home and put a bullet through his head.
    .

  6. PTRP
    ‘big and powerful can always trump small’

    Perhaps, but I have seen many examples of this:

    ‘Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.’

    Margaret Mead

    I am a great believer in the idea of Small Incremental Change ( I suppose that makes me a small ‘c’ conservative ). I think the abandonment by Cameron of Localism ( the wisdom of crowds writ small ) was a huge mistake. It was a massively popular policy.

  7. @Sam

    Thanks. Despite my Eng Lit A-level in 1971, I never knew that was anything other than a Paul Simon song.

  8. Sam

    If Robinson’s bereaved sister-in-law had married him, his poetry might have been very different.

  9. @oldnat

    “If Robinson’s bereaved sister-in-law had married him, his poetry might have been very different.”

    ——

    Do you mean less cheerful?

  10. CARFREW

    The Ring Cycle is magnificent , but requires stamina as the opera’s are relatively long. If you want to give her a taste of Opera I would recommend Puccini or Rossini or even Mozart although his plots could be considered a bit over the top. The Barber of Seville by Rossini is great fun, but if you want love and tragedy try Tosca by Puccini.

    My personal favourite is Gounod’s Faust

  11. Sam
    Thanks for those. I delude myself into thinking I’m reasonably well-read, but I’d never heard of the poet.

  12. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE

    I think the Duke was making an appropriate comment at the time since the slaughter was terrible. I would have probably done the same.

    I am just being honest, at the time it was very difficult to do but IMO had to be done for the reasons I gave.

    This may sound a little pompous but perhaps that is why some can lead and others cannot.

  13. OLDNAT

    Eros Turannos

  14. Hireton @ M Bruno

    Brodies made a useful summary of the issues surrounding Legislative Consent Motions (LCMs) when this arose in discussions on the EU Withdrawal Bill.

    https://brodies.com/sites/default/files/brexit_-_the_european_union_withdrawl_bill_and_scotland.compressed.pdf

    A simpler version is that the UK Parliament reserves the right to do what the hell it wants, regardless of the views of devolved administrations!

  15. CHRISLANE1945.

    @”I think that these people, from whom my parents came, used to see themselves as Labour rather than Socialist and Radical.”

    Yes-people they have been losing for decades.

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1206484465482162176

  16. Sam

    That poem is going to take a lot of thought.

  17. @TOH

    Thanks Howard for the recommendations and I shall deffo look out for them. There’s no Rossini or Puccini coming up but there is The Magic of Figaro.

    There’s also some Sondheim. (Which of course might be considered musical theatre, but still impresses. We took some students to see some Sondheim in the Eighties… I didnt really know what to expect but everyone came out very inspired. Was amazed how much grander and more impressive live it was than it seems on the telly).

  18. @TOH @Carfrew

    Or more or less anything by Richard Strauss: Der Rosenkavalier is delightful and easy on the ear. Ariadne auf Naxos has some lovely parts while Die Frau ohne Schatten is a dark tale enlightened by some great music. If you must take her to Mozart, then go for Don Giovanni which at least avoids some of Mozart’s silliest plots.

    For something approaching Wagner without the length, look at Verdi (or Joe Green as my wife always calls him). You can more or less pick any of them: Rigoletto, Il Trovatore, and La Traviata are most performed , but if you ever get the chance to hear Falstaff, don’t pass it up.

  19. Clive Lewis steps into the ring:-

    “”I don’t want to manage the labour movement, I want to unleash it,”

    ………..we have ways of making you believe………..

  20. @PTRP

    One of my ancestors died of wounds sustained at the Battle of Badajoz, fighting with Wellington.in the Peninsular War. The British lost 4.800 storming the citadel.

    I think they made fourteen attempts before they gained entry.

    Afterwards, they rioted though the city, and killed many civilians.

    Wellington was hugely upset by both the loss of life on his own side, but also the treatment of those who lost. I believe he later described it as the finest and worst day in the history of the British Army.

  21. @LiberalLeftie

    Thanks muchly. I’m drawn to the Verdi a bit, as while I don’t know much about his operas, his Requiem I think was the first concert I went to, when a friend at school suggested going along, and it was another of those moments when it hits you so much harder live, especially when you’re like in the second row.

  22. Millie

    I thought I recognised that story of Badjoz, so looked it up on Wiki.

    The “historian” whose work is the basis of the article wrote of the rape and slaughter of civilians –

    Let us not forget that hundreds of British troops were killed and maimed by the fury of the respective assaults, during which men saw their comrades and brothers slaughtered before their very eyes. Should we really condemn them for feeling some degree of bitterness, for wanting to vent their anger upon somebody? The storming of a fortress is not the same as a battle where men expect casualties to occur. But when a force was asked to storm a fortress when practicable breaches had been formed, such casualties would have been deemed unnecessary. Given the enormity of the task facing the stormers in the Peninsula, I for one begrudge them none of their feelings of anger and desire for revenge.

    I for one condemn the apologists for such behaviour even more than I condemn the soldiers who committed such bestiality.

    The events of Bloody Sunday were far less heinous than at Badjoz, but the guilt of the apologists (in this case the current UK Government) is the same as Ian Fletcher’s.

  23. @Millie

    Not splitting hairs, and in fairness to Wellington, it might have been the case thus far (guessing 1812), but it was eclipsed by the first day of the Somme (worst day in history).

    The best day in history might have been 11/11/1918, as it signalled a general end to mass infantry slaughter in Western Europe (ww2’s Eastern front was another story).

  24. YouGov poll out today:

    A quarter of Brits (26%) say that Christmas has a damaging impact on their mental health.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2019/12/18/christmas-harms-mental-health-quarter-brits?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=christmas

    Christmas should be exactly the opposite. Please try and reach out to the homeless or the lonely this Christmas as well as those who have had a tough time this year because of difficulties in their lives.

    Love to all – through equality and solidarity we can make things better for everyone!

  25. ProfHoward
    “please try and reach out to the homeless or the lonely this Christmas ”

    Yes. I’ve been looking for a person spending Christmas alone because our house will be full and we need some spare chairs! (joke)

    Seriously, a very nice thought by you.

  26. Clive Lewis is a strong supporter of PR which is clearly a policy Labour will.have to revisit so if he makes the ballot paper(unlikely) there will be a debate .

  27. Brilliant smith

    I used to like Clive a lot as a future leader but I found his laddishness annoying. But I’m glad hes entered the race because of his long standing support for PR

  28. Brilliant Smith

    “PR which is clearly a policy Labour will have to revisit”

    Why? In England they got almost exactly the same number of seats as their proportion of their vote earned.

    As the largest party, the Tories did very well out of FPTP (as did the SNP in Scotland). If Labour ever have pretensions to being a UK Government with a majority, then PR would mean that at best, they could be the largest party in a coalition.

    In a civilised democracy that would be a laudable aim, but I get the impression that Labour folk on here still dream of being (as the Tories are now) a minority party that has total power.

  29. @TOH @Carfrew

    I don’t think you can do better than start off with Puccini’s La Boheme. Not too long (in fact, quite short) and with some wonderful music, including my own personal favourite operatic aria, “Che Gelida Manina”. Sigh!

  30. @ProfHoward

    “A quarter of Brits (26%) say that Christmas has a damaging impact on their mental health.”

    Fortunately my mental health is unimpaired (though my wife suffers from anxiety depression, so I know what a debilitating illness it can be).

    However, Christmas drives me mad! Ghastly Victorian carols, wall-to-wall trite 1970s pop songs, and High Street shops you can’t (or don’t want to) enter from early October onwards. Bah Humbug say I.

    Roll on Hogmanay. @OldNat, will you let me be an honorary Scotsman for a fortnight, please?

  31. MOG

    Nae problem.

    I am, however, distraught. I had a “Bah Humbug” mug that I brought out from the cupboard every November to aid me through the depths of the Festive Season.

    This year, I dropped and broke it. My survival till Hogmanay is in doubt.

  32. @Norbold

    Seems like Ellen Kent is touring La Boheme next year (and Madame Butterfly) so I shall try and catch it. Thanks for the tip!

  33. Oldnat

    I dont know about labour folk on here but recent polling of the labour party membership showed support for PR at 75%

  34. @OldNat

    Let me send you a virtual bottle of Laphroaig as consolation for the mug. (It would certainly console me in your boots !).

    One of my best New Years was spent in Ayr, in the mid 1980s. A (then) friend and I went there for three or four days over Hogmanay, and stayed in a B&B. We went to the pub on New-Year’s Eve, and although I got a few “bloody sassenach” comments when ordering the beer, we were invited to several house-parties at closing time. We had a truly wonderful time (and, being youngish, a fair few snogs as well!).

    Saying this, I remember waking up to the sound of my friend moaning “Why did he hit me? Why did he hit me?”. He expalined it himself… he had treated the fireplace in the lounge as a urinal !

    A couple of days later we drove home to London (my home – he was from Sheffield). The car was lowish on juice when we left, so I planned to fill up asap. I hadn’t realised Hogmanay lasted a week, and the petrol stations were shut !

    As we approached Castle Douglas the car was running on fumes alone, and I found the only open petrol station in the entire Caledonian Kingdom. I almost believed there was a god after all.

    Drove home to London in my Fiesta. A74, M6, M1. Dark. Rain. Alternator packed up. Could use windscreen wipers about once a minute in the rain to conserve battery. Staggered as far as Stoke before the battery carked, and got a replacement. Staggered on home, just as replacement battery died. Toughest drive of my life.

    A memorable Hogmanay indeed !

  35. @MOG/Oldnat

    I was out for a quick jaunt today, and the roads were full of miserable old gits, and old nats (or maybe they were unionists, I didn’t ask).

    Did what I had to do, and got home sharpish.

    No humbug, but then I don’t watch the telly nowadays. I get all my chuckles from online sources, such as Twitch and Youtube. There no better filter than one’s own choices.

  36. Princess Rachel
    That article was very long, and I’m afraid I skipped most of it for that reason. It seemed to be casting around for people to blame for the recent GE result.

    I can sum it up much more succinctly: The people (all 17.4m Leavers and a good number of 2016 Remain voters) were completely fed up with the parliamentary silly games to try to undermine the will of the people. End of story. Corbyn’s toxic background didn’t help, but voters didn’t exactly flock to the Libdems and other fringe parties either.

    Advance quibble rebuttal: yes a few of the 2016 voters will be dead by now, and no the Tories didn’t get 17.4m votes. However the point stands.

  37. CARFREW
    @SOMERJOHN
    @TOH

    It is also possible that Howard wasn’t agreeing with the entirety of my comment. He might only have been agreeing with the logic of it, the generalised point about being prepared to take a hit as it applies to other things I.e. Brexit.

    December 19th, 2019 at 2:49 pm
    ——————

    It’ll be interesting to know what hit TOH will take from Brexit? Seems it’s going to be the poor, yet again, who’ll be expected to shoulder any negative Brexit fallout. I expect (bar a few like myself) Brexit won’t touch anyone on here (ukpollingreport).

  38. @ STATGEEK

    As Blair said in February 2006;

    “We believe there is a growing consensus that it is the standard of diagnosis and treatment provided to the individual NHS patient that really matters, not the type of ownership of any particular institution making that provision.”

    “For us, the sterile debate between public and private healthcare provision is over.”

    I do have some reservations about what Blair implemented with PFI, but I do believe he was committed to free at the point of need healthcare.

    At the end of the day, it’s the patient experience that’s important, not preserving outdated or inefficient NHS operating models in aspic.

  39. Interesting development from the US. Perhaps I was wrong on impeachment?

    To date, the Trump alliance has held completely solid over his wrongdoing, but yesterday, for the first time, a crack appeared in one part of this alliance, with a savage editorial in the usually non political evangelical publication Christianity Today.

    Among other things, they wrote

    “The facts in this instance are unambiguous: the president of the United States attempted to use his political power to coerce a foreign leader to harass and discredit one of the president’s political opponents.

    “That is not only a violation of the Constitution; more importantly, it is profoundly immoral.

    “We believe the impeachment hearings have made it absolutely clear, in a way the Mueller investigation did not, that President Trump has abused his authority for personal gain and betrayed his constitutional oath. The impeachment hearings have illuminated the president’s moral deficiencies for all to see. This damages the institution of the presidency, damages the reputation of our country, and damages both the spirit and the future of our people.”

    The editorial went on to question the moral compromise made by evangelicals in their support for Trump, and calling on Trumps supporters to remember who they serve.

    It’s certainly a crack in the wall, but at this stage it’s impossible to assess just how significant this is. Certainly any substantial loss of support among the Christian right would be terminal for Trump, but whether this represents a broad movement is still unclear.

  40. jboyd,
    ” for those of us who remember the squalor and inefficiency of British Rail, a nationalised railway system is not necessarily an attractive alternative.”

    What I remember of british rail from the period you described is that trains ran and fares subjectively seemed cheaper than they do now. The particular line I used then and now received considerable investment under BR management. And, of course, journey times were lengthened after privatisation to reduce the chance of trains being late and therefore compensation payable.

    There have been new quieter trains since privatisation, but the technology for these trains did not exist when BR were in charge. I expect that for efficiency reasons, and the natural aging of the rolling stock, they would have been replaced anyway had the railways stayed as BR. Although it has to be said quality of seating on some of the modern trains is actually worse than on the BR ones.

    Its a myth BR management was worse than what has replaced it.

  41. Re the NHS if we want better health services we need to spend a lot more, whatever the model we use, unfortunately people still think you can get a pint out of a quart pot

    The UK spend £2,989 per person on healthcare Germany spend £4,432 per person, over 40% more. Looking at Doctors we employ around 2.8 per per thousand people and Germany around 4.1. France who spend 3,737 per head of population employ 3.3 per thousand people. In terms of Doctors we are getting a lot of bang for our buck
    https://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2940

    Despite a rising and an ageing population with ever more complex and expensive treatments available the number of GP’s have fallen, despite a pledge that they would increase to 6,000 by 2020

    Unless and until we fund our NHS to at least the average of G7 Countries then comparisons are pretty meaningless. (for example to be level with Germany we would need to spend almost 80 billion pounds extra every year to catch up, France around 40 billion pounds extra each year).

    Figures for the above are from the official UK Government Office for National Statistics
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29

  42. JIMR and ProfHoward.

    Thanks again JIMR for the reference and your critique of the paper ProfHoward described as an authoritative study that suggests a negative relationship between cognitive skills and right-wing views:

    I read very few scientific papers these days, other than botanical and ornithological ones, usually relating to changes in taxonomy. and I would certainly not describe myself as an expert at assessing papers such as the one under discussion. However, having read the paper it seems to me that your critique seems fair, and that the paper is not really authoritative at all.

  43. CARFREW

    I fully endorse LEFTYLIBERALS suggestions, and NORBOLDs comments on La Boheme are fully justified.

    Enjoy!

  44. Good Morning all.
    Labour members on the whole seem to support some form of PR; many options on the table here.

    Most members of the Labour Party voted, twice, for Jeremy Corbyn. Some of these members may be regretting that now, though I suspect most of these members would vote for him again, despite two defeats and despite what everyone now knows, thanks to the media, about the causes he has supported.quite openly for a very long time.

  45. @Colin
    Thanks; I think those three myths are crucial.

    @Shevii and @Danny
    Most of the BR journeys I remember were between London and the Midlands or on more local routes; and whilst it was cheaper and the seats were more plentiful (and there was more room), the trains were often dirty, cold and dilapidated; and punctuality and reliability were appalling. I remember frequent delays that ran into hours.
    You can argue that the problem was lack of investment (obviously the changes in technology are difficult to factor in) but the question then is how far can a state-run industry source investment effectively or legitimately.

    If you look at comparisons between the current British railway system and those abroad, you get into all sorts of complexities: for example, German train journeys are cheaper at peak times but more expensive off peak; German train passengers are less likely to be satisfied than British customers, etc. And what looks like a ‘nationalised’ system elsewhere is often not as it appears.

    @Alec
    I accept that the argument is complex, and needs to accommodate more nuance and less ideology; I’m not opposed to nationalisation on principle. And the history of nationalised industry in this country is long and mixed. It is skewed by the fact that many nationalisations have been bail-outs of industries or companies that were already in crisis and arguably facing structural or external challenges that made their viability questionable.

    There’s also a political, even ‘moral’ question: if Coal was still nationalised now, how could any government deal with the argument that the whole industry should be closed down to combat climate change? If the investment necessary to achieve ‘clean coal’ (via carbon sequestration or some other technology) was massive and uncertain, how could a government balance the competing interests of the workers employed in the industry with those of its other citizens who might face tax increases and reduced services to fund it, with consequent levels of economic risk that the market might consider unrealistic?

    However, my point was really about the way perceptions of different generations are affected by different experiences: if you remember Aberfan, you are less likely to look at Grenfell and blame the terrible loss of life on ‘privatisation’ because a nationalised industry allowed fatal criminal negligence; if you remember the reality of BR unfavourably, you are less likely to support Railway nationalisation. And if you bought an early production Maestro then switched to a Ford Escort your views may be similarly prejudiced.

  46. ON

    I support PR because it will always give a fairer result.But as you surely realise it would change political discourse fundamentally and lead to new approaches to solving long standing but too difficult problems like social care,taxation and housing.

    And of course its also the only guaranteed way of getting the other progressive parties to discuss a second referendum as hell will freeze over before the Tories do.

  47. @Statgeek

    I think you are splitting hairs a bit.

    Wellington can hardly be blamed for not describing the Battle of the Somme as the worst day in the history of the British Army. He died in 1852!

    My grandfather went ‘over the top’ at the Somme, and was fortunate to be shot in the arm and sent home. My other grandfather was at Gallipoli, so I am lucky to be here.

    Anyway, yes, I agree, there is probably nothing to compare with your two nominations for the best and the worst.

  48. @ON

    Yes, I also read that on Wiki. And also disagree with it. The British Army were out of control for 72 hours, and even killed their own officers.

    It took my ancestor nine years to die from his wounds, but his tomb does not say who inflicted them…

  49. @TOH

    Thanks for your suggestions too Howard, including the Puccini, and I’ll definitely be looking out for some Rossini too! I wasn’t too sure where to start, so it’s been very helpful!

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