It is the eve of the election and I’ll be rounding up the final call polls here as they come in.

YouGov already released their final call prediction last night in the form of their updated MRP projection. The voting intentions in the model were CON 43%, LAB 34%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 3%. As an MRP, it also included projected numbers of seats, with the Conservatives winning 339, Labour 231, SNP 41, Liberal Democrats 15, Plaid 4 and the Greens 1. Fieldwork was the 4th to the 10th, but the model gives more weight to the more recent data. The full details of the model are here.

ICM also released their final poll yesterday, with topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was conducted Sunday to monday, and full tables are here.

Opinium‘s final voting intention figures are CON 45%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 2%, GRN 2%. The Conservatives have a twelve point lead (though in their write up Opinium point out that this is because the Tory shares has been rounded up and Labour’s share rounded down, so before rounding it was actually an 11 point lead). In recent weeks Opinium have tended to show the biggest leads for the Conservatives, so this reflects a slight narrowing since their previous poll. Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday, so would have been wholly after the Leeds NHS story on Monday. Full tables are here

BMG‘s final figures are CON 41%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%. Fieldwork was between Friday and today, and doesn’t show any change since BMG’s figures last week.

Panelbase‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 34%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%, GRN 3%. Fieldwork was Tuesday and Wednesday so, like Opinium, would have been wholly after the Leeds NHS story (though unlike Opinium, Panelbase don’t show any tightening since their previous poll). Full tables are here.

Matt Singh’s NCPolitics have conducted a final poll on behalf of Bloomberg. That has final figures of CON 43%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 3%. Their full tables are here.

There was also a poll by Qriously (a company that does polls in smartphone adverts, who is a member of the BPC). Fieldwork for that was conducted Thursday to Sunday, and had topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 30%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%, GRN 4%. Details are here

SavantaComRes have final figures of CON 41%, LAB 36%, LDEM 12%. Fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday. The five point lead is the lowest any company has given the Conservatives during the campaign, and would likely be in hung Parliament territory (though ComRes have typically given some of the lower Tory leads). Full tables are here.

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 44%, LAB 32%, LDEM 13%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday. The twelve point lead is unchanged from Kantar’s last poll, though the Lib Dems have fallen a little. Full results are here.

Deltapoll‘s final poll CON 45%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, BREX 3%. Fieldwork was also Monday to Wednesday. Full results are here.

Survation published their final call overnight. Topline figures there are CON 44.5%, LAB 33.7%, LDEM 9.3%, BREX 3.1%. Their poll also included an oversized sample for Scotland, to provide seperate Scottish figures – they were SNP 43.2%, CON 27.9%, LAB 19.8%, LDEM 7.3%. Full details are here.

Finally, Ipsos MORI published their final call in this morning’s Standard. Their final figures are CON 44%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, GRN 3%, BREX 2%. Full tables are here. (And, since people always ask – Ipsos MORI publish on election day because they partner with the Evening Standard, who publish at lunchtime. As you’ll know, it’s illegal to publish an exit poll until after voting stops at 10pm. However, it’s perfectly legal to publish a poll that was conducted before voting began)


3,032 Responses to “Final call election polls”

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  1. Anthony, is that Panelbase figure correct for the Tories???????

  2. Howdy! Am I the first on here?

  3. Congratulations Anthony, you do work hard on these. The MRP one is the one I look closely at. I also wonder what impact the Ashcroft call Will have had as well?

  4. Opinium confirmed in a tweet that their actual numbers to two decimal places were:

    Con 44.81
    Lab 33.46.

    So a bit closer than a 12 point lead and much closer than their previous 15 point Tory lead. Are pollsters starting to herd at a Tory lead around 10%? That would be a shame. Or are we seeing a genuine late movement to Labour that only some polls are picking up?

  5. Opinium confirmed in a tweet that their actual numbers to two decimal places were:

    Con 44.81
    Lab 33.46.

    So a bit closer than a 12 point lead and much closer than their previous 15 point Tory lead. Are pollsters starting to herd at a Tory lead around 10%? That would be a shame. Or are we seeing a genuine late movement to Labour that only some polls are picking up?

  6. Is herding a genuine thing or is it just speculation?

  7. So based on the polls and on the postal votes rumour then it surely has to be a Tory OM.
    But it’s only 2 years since we were in a near identical situation and the Tories fell short at the death so I still half expect that to be the outcome. So the polling industry really needs a Tory OM more than anyone.

  8. Savanta ComRes

    CON 41% (-)
    LAB 36% (+3)
    LD 12% (-)
    Other 11% (-3)

    9th – 10th Dec
    (changes from Savanta ComRes/Sunday Telegraph, Dec 7th)

  9. Survation final one below….rose tinted glasses aside, it looks like an outlier in terms of Lab movement and also has Con lower than pretty much all others.

    CON 41% (-)
    LAB 36% (+3)
    LD 12% (-)
    Other 11% (-3)

  10. ComRes tables

    https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/daily-telegraph-eve-of-election-poll-ge2019-westminster-voting-intention-11th-dec/

    Looks like the drop in “others” is from independents, etc. as Brexit, Greens and SNP are all unchanged.

  11. Ourmarkets has a 58 seat majority…is that about an 11% point lead?

    https://twitter.com/smarkets/status/1204869991197224962/photo/1

  12. Hang on, I thought Survation had some crazy lead of abkut 14% the other day? This poll doesn’t reflect thst change.

  13. Doesn’t look like herding when we’ve got ComRes at Con +5 and Opinium at Con +11.3 (to use their pedantry).

  14. Naive question: the Survation one shows the smallest lead, which might therefore get the Con vote out…is it a coincidence that its for the Telegraph? Can the Telegraph ask Survation to tweaks certain parameters which might skew the outcome slightly? e.g. if you call at a certain time of day, some people will be at home and others wont?

  15. Adam, you confused me, putting Survation!

  16. Adam must mean Savanta Com Res, not survation.

  17. Ahem, you’re right. And that makes me a bit happier, given they’ve been very Labour-y previously. Incredible variation across companies…

  18. Good Evening all from Bournemouth East Tory candidate, Tobias Ellwood is no doubt expecting to be returned by our voters here, as are neighbours Mr Chope and Mr Burns in Christchurch and Bournemouth West.

    Looking forward to tomorrow evening and communicating here at 10 PM.

  19. Not to toot my own flute but I said there would be a 5% lead poll tonight! Interesting set of results so far with some pollsters showing Labour increase since NHS story and some not.

    In any case, ComRes appears to put VI in hung parliament territory now. They also stated alongside their poll that 1 in 5 say they could still change their mind. Tomorrow night is going to be unpredictable.

  20. Something has changed over the last few days, I believe some voters who were thinking of voting Tory, have been put off. Expect Survation poll to be like Comres.

  21. If the result were broadly in line with ComRes or ICM, then several of other companies would have egg on their faces.

    OTOH, if the result were in line with Opinium, ComRes and ICM would have the egg. But ICM’s reputation was in any case destroyed two years ago. This is their chance either to regain it or to confirm its demise. No pressure…

  22. On these polls:

    1) if we have the same polling error of 2015 (shy Tories) we will have a Tory landslide.

    Or

    2) if we have the same polling error as 2017 (shy Corbynites) then we will have another hung parliament- either with Johnson alone unable to elicit the support of the DUP; or a LAB-SNP-LIB alliance.

  23. I’m going to stick with my original prediction:

    Con 308
    Lab 251
    SNP 45
    LD 21
    DUP 8
    SF 7
    PC 4
    Ind 1
    Grn 1
    All 1
    SDLP 1
    UUP 1
    Spkr 1

    NB, MOG mixed up LD & SNP on his summary.

  24. Panel base is not a credible pollster. Be wary.

  25. john33: For Australia, there is some actual evidence of herding, or at least of a poll being “ripped up” because it showed Labor doing worse than other polls said… https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html

  26. Yeah sticking with my original prediction. There is a lot of noise, but mainly just people talking up their own preferred result.

    Cons 360
    Lab 199
    SNP 46
    Libs 17

  27. My latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 48 – Con 348 Lab 217 SNP 44 LD 17

    The forecast is here: UK-Elect Forecast December 11th 2019

    Details as CSV file are here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 11th 2019

    The inclusion of updated recent Scottish, Welsh, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a small reduction in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.

  28. MDSS

    “I believe some voters who were thinking of voting Tory, have been put off.”

    Can you point to the polling evidence of that? In the ones which has shown narrower leads, Con vote has still largely held up, but Lab has been a bit higher (nearer 36%).

    Absent polling margin of error, something like 43%-34% seems to me to be the rough area where these are coming out

  29. Looking at the polling averages over the past week there has been a slight swing from Con to Lab but things still look like Con overall majority. The thing that could stop that is the tactical voting that constituency polls show but that seems to be a lot of near misses rather than upsets.

  30. Even if there is a hung parliament ( per ComRes final poll() , it is not guaranteed that would result in a Corbyn government..

  31. Virtually zero movement in the bookies all day. Current betfair implied probabilities:

    CON OM: 72%
    No OM: 26%
    LAB OM: 2%

    Splitting out the hung parliament 26% needs a slightly subjective view on where the seat divide would be but does lean more to LAB min govt (as they have more potential friends than CON) and also a “mess” in the middle where no one can form a govt (and unless he’s kicked out Boris stays PM and unless “something” is enabled we default to “No WA” on 31Jan’20 – so be careful what you wish for!)

  32. EoR

    Did you manage to see my guess as to UK seats?

  33. Some interesting polling on the Kent constituencies, seems to show Canterbury moving to safe for Labour and two other constituencies shifting from safe Tory to likely Tory.

  34. My Prediction:
    CON 347
    LAB 226
    LD 12
    GRN 1
    SNP 41
    PC 4
    Speaker 1
    DUP 9
    SF 7
    Other NI 2

  35. Repeat of the slightly subjective view of the No OM scenarios, CON seats (break-out of the 26%)

    318-325: CON minority govt, Boris WAB would pass to avoid risk of crash-out “No WA” on 31Jan’20. 10%

    305ish-318: CON minority govt as ABC govt relies on LDEM and DUP abstaining to allow PM Corbyn (or Corbyn lets someone get the keys to #10 to write extension letters etc and he’s a “puppet” leader). Risk of “No WA”. Spring’20 GE. 7%

    285ish-305ish: Messy. LAB minority govt tasked with single purpose of delivering 2nd ref. Single purpose govt delivers Remain and Autumn’20 GE. 5%

    below 285ish: LAB+SNP(+PC+Green) would be able to form a LAB minority govt. 2%

    below 270ish: LAB+LDEM(+PC+Green) would be able to form a LAB minority govt. 2%

    Fully accept others might see the numbers and outcomes slightly differently. You have to make some assumption about how well smaller parties, NATS and NI parties do and what they’d be prepared to accept/reject. Main point is – be careful what you wish for!

  36. I am giving up on Electoral Calculus. They are still showing Ceredigion, a LD/PC marginal as Lab 1st and Con 2nd!

  37. The difference between the bookies view (lean LAB min govt) and my view (CON would manage to “survive” at lower seat numbers) is why the bookies see LAB min govt higher than CON min govt

    I’ve got a lot money saying otherwise – money where mouth is!

    NB That is of course only relevant in the event CON don’t win 326+ seas. If they win an OM they’ll we’ll obviously never know what would have happened if they didn’t.

  38. Here is my prediction:

    Con 334
    Lab 227
    LD 20
    Gr 1
    SNP 45
    PC 4
    Spk 1
    DUP 8
    SF 7
    UUUP 1
    All 1
    SDLP 1

    So compared to my first shot, I`ve upped Con by 20, and lowered LibD by 15 and SNP by 5. And minor shifts in NI

  39. I was phone-polled by Survation this afternoon, so yes they will have a poll out.

  40. Newcomers unused to the Trevors’ somewhat exuberant, florid and inaccurate phraseology (which they keep in the fridge, along with their leader, and use only for effect) –

    “smaller parties, NATS and NI parties” translates to “the Green Party in England, and parties from outwith England”.

    This has been a public service announcement.

  41. Deltapoll’s last voting intention results for #GE2019

    Conservative: 45%
    Labour: 35%
    Lib Dem: 10%
    Brexit: 3%
    Others: 7%

  42. I think we are waiting for Kantar, Survation and Deltpoll.

  43. Survation’s design for their final poll is interesting and seems to have been carefully considered.

    “Using our telephone methodology, there will be a Great Britain (ex NI) voting intention poll of approximately 2500 persons containing additional sample in Scotland (approximately 1000 persons), Wales (approximately 400 persons) and so a larger than is usual sample in England than in our weekly telephone voting intention polls. The Scottish sample will be separately weighted and presented as a standalone poll and will also be incorporated into the GB poll.”

  44. I’m going for the Tories to have 317; almost exactly where we were before and continued chaos. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to have another election within six months.

  45. Kantar Con 44 Lab 32 LD 13 (-2)

  46. @ OLDNAT – I’m happy to ignore LDEM (and SLD) if you are ;)

    Or do you think they are a main party (or did you just not bovver to read+understand my post)

    “This has been a public service announcement” :-) :-)

    I’m aware you’re probably someone upset by the car crash campaign of SNP going all out Indy and then trying to back pedal too late.

    You were WARNE’D but oh no Blackford took the bait, Sturgeon went “YES-NOW” then “YES-when we decide” then whatever she’d trying now.

    OOPS!

  47. All polls should be release before midnight. There is absolutely no reason why IPSOS should be releasing theirs on election day.

  48. Kantar has been the worst pollster in last few years. Many jobs lost and people replaced. They are struggling as an organisation.

  49. No sooner expected than 2 of them arrive!

  50. @MDSS Mori isn’t released until tomorrow (it will have already been fully conducted) because the Evening Standard is their client.

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