The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. @ ANDREW WILLIAMS

    Hope: CON win 318-325 seats (max out my bets and I like the idea of ERG ensure we just have a “bare bones” deal with EU and hoping we can get a few LAB MPs to allow Boris to prevent the “51st State” faction taking control[1])

    Believe: in Santa!!

    OK, joking aside. Could go either way. CON seat range is IMO 305-390 and everyone else is ABC (minus a small faction of LAB MPs perhaps?)

    [1] Yes, I’m aware that a lot of ’51st State’ folks are in the ERG! It will be tricky to get the votes when and where we need them but after 1Feb’20 and then 2July’20 and then 1Jan’21 then ERG can go under the bus and that point who knows DUP might get back on?

  2. Hope: Labour largest party hung parliament – votes for 16 year olds and EU citizens brought in, 2nd referendum.

    Fear: Tories in a sizeable majority – Brexit ‘gets done’ with UK out of single market and customs union, NHS finished off, Labour finally splits and due to FPTP Tories end up governing for next 10 years or so.

    The only silver lining I’m clinging to if Boris gets big majority is that Brexit and the Scottish independence and Northern Ireland political situation may distract government from enacting the worst of what they’re planning to unleash.

  3. @PeteB

    I do. Join me. Rise above it. ;)

  4. Seat guesses
    Con 339
    Lab 227
    SNP 45
    LD 16
    DUP 8
    SF 6
    SDLP 2
    Alliance 2
    PC 3
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

  5. @Edge of Reason

    Con 360
    Lab 210
    SNP 44
    LD 13
    DUP 7
    SF 7
    Alliance 2
    PC 3
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

  6. @ EOR – OK a bit cheeky to ask for who has highest CON so far so I’ll put an opener in:

    CON: 390+
    LAB: 191-
    SNP: 38
    LDEM: 8
    PC: 3
    Green: 1
    Speaker: 1

    DUP: 8
    SF: 6
    SDLP: 2
    Alliance: 2

    the + for CON is to notch me up if anyone “raises” my 390 (up to max of 410 – that’s my limit!). The – for LAB represents the equiv subtraction to still sum to 650

    NB Gotta give ALEC something to keep going back to “rediscover” for the next 4.5yrs and if you can’t win the Silver ware then go for the wooden spoon ;)

  7. Three final day polls so far, are we expecting anymore?

  8. Hope: A big enough Tory majority so that BoJo can get Brexit sorted without the ERG being in control and a big enough defeat for Labour so they might replace the leadership

    Believe: A smallish Tory majority of 20-30 seats

  9. @andrew William’s

    Haven’t we only had one?

  10. @TOH

    If you really want a revision change as follows;

    Cons 350 to 353
    Lab 194 to 211
    LD 35 to 18
    SNP 47 to 44

    All others stay the same.

    Noted, thanks.

    I wasn’t challenging your original numbers, just giving you the opportunity to check I had transcribed them correctly.

  11. I agree with ADRIANH. My best outcome of a second referendum and a sensible moderate government is, unfortunately, not on the table.

  12. ZACH

    Three I believe:-

    Qriously
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 30%
    LDem: 12%
    BXP: 3%
    Grn: 4%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 8%

    NCPoliticsUK/Bloomberg
    Con: 43%
    Lab: 33%
    LDem: 12%
    BXP: 3%
    Grn: 3%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 6%

    Opinium
    Con: 45%
    Lab: 33%
    LDem: 12%
    BXP: 2%
    Grn: 2%
    Oth/DK/WNV: 6%

  13. Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    2m
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-)
    LAB: 32% (-)
    LDEM: 14% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    BREX: 3% (-1)

    via
    @BMGResearch
    , 06 – 11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

  14. ”So, in that sense, I agree with you that FPTP normalises extremism by forcing the main parties to provide political refuge for what used to be called “fellow travellers”.“

    ———

    Plus the big parties can become battlegrounds for other more minority ideologies to try and infiltrate and take them over.

  15. I’ll have a go.

    Con 298
    Lab 270
    SNP 44
    LD 15
    DUP 9
    SF 7
    PC 3
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Looking for the smaller parties to keep a lid on Labour.

  16. @Andrew William’s

    ICM, Ipsos-Mori, Survation and BMG

  17. I want a smallish Tory majority and enough Labour Leave MP’s getting in as a backup just in case the ERG start kicking off. A majority of 20 would be enough. In reality anything could happen, tactical voting will have the biggest influence in a GE in our political history. Some big names to lose from the two main parties, I can see a lot of recounts. Trevor, can you bet on how many recounts that might occur?

  18. Andrew Williams

    “Hope: Total destruction of Corbyn’s party [N.B. not ‘normal’ Labour]
    Believe: Tory majority”

  19. ZACH, make that 4 now with the BMG

  20. I hear Survation have done 3 more polls and each shows a very different outcome.

    We’ll get to see the closest one to the actual result on Friday and the other two will go in bin ;)

  21. Long term hopes are for an ideal world.

    In the political reality that looms,my hope is that Johnson gets in with only a small majority, and that the ERG will raise their ugly heads post election, so that the only way Johnson can “Get Brexit Done” in Parliament is to “negotiate” an exit that accords with the Scottish Government’s compromise solution suggested 3 years ago.

  22. EOR

    Ta and sorry. Please reduce LAB by 5 and 1for SPEAKER and 4 for PLAID. Thanks

  23. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 34% (-)
    LDEM: 11% (-2)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (+1)

    via
    @PanelbaseMD
    , 10 – 11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

  24. What polls are we expecting tonight?

  25. PanelBase and BMG will provide some relief for Con, in addition to Opinium and the two lesser known ones

  26. Whoops… site down for 2 hours this time. It must have election fever.

  27. Really, do the servers that this website is hosted on run on steam engines.

    This site went offline/really slow about the time of the MRP last night and for over an hour tonight.

  28. EoR

    Hope you managed to see my guess list before the site collapsed (or since).

  29. Hope: Labour majority, any number!

    Believe: Tory majority 20-30 seats

  30. Oldnat

    “In the political reality that looms,my hope is that Johnson gets in with only a small majority, and that the ERG will raise their ugly heads post election, so that the only way Johnson can “Get Brexit Done” in Parliament is to “negotiate” an exit that accords with the Scottish Government’s compromise solution suggested 3 years ago.”

    Yes, another 5 years of Tory govt from Westminster will be really great for Scotland. But at least we will all suffer together.

  31. Dr Mibbles seems to be collecting a growing fan base of Labour hopefulls on Twitter

    Given the expertise of all the polling companies, they are either all wrong and Dr Mibbles is right or vice versa.

    I suppose tomorrow we will find out if he really is a genius or he’s been blinkered and tried to find the result he wants and ignored all other variables to get there.

  32. @EoR

    Whoops. Thanks for pointing out.

    Revised prediction:

    Con 301
    Lab 265
    Liberal Democrats 15
    Green 1
    SNP 45
    Plaid Cymru 4
    DUP 9
    SF 7
    SDLP 2
    Speaker 1

  33. The BXP guy stating the polls are wrong on Andrew Neil. That may well be the case but if they are it will be because of inaccurate turn out figures which will only be to the detriment of BXP and CON.

  34. @TonyBTG

    Not sure about steam engines, I think it may be ox-drawn.

  35. Seen this?

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 41% (-)
    LAB: 36% (+3)
    LDEM: 12% (-)

    via @SavantaComRes, 09 – 10 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 05 Dec

    Surge?

  36. Comres is historically bad for labour , but I suspect some hedging of bets

  37. A small point about the YouGov MRP seat analysis: it’s not clear at first glance how a seat shown in grey as ‘toss-up’ is counted for the purposes of the parties overall seat tallies. In reality, the ‘grey’ seats are distributed roughly evenly between Lab and Con, with 4 for the SNP.

    For anyone else who might want to compare the actual results to YouGov’s figures, the ‘toss-up’ seats have been allocated thus, within their overall estimate of 339 Con, 231 Lab, 41 SNP, etc.

    Counted as Conservative
    Aberconwy
    Vale of Clwyd
    Wrexham
    Moray
    Ochil and S Perth
    Aberdeen S
    Lanark and Hamilton E
    Sedgefield
    Grimsby
    Hendon
    Dagenham & Rainham
    Esher & Walton
    Winchester
    East Devon

    Counted as Labour
    Ynys Mon
    Delyn
    Clwyd S
    Rutherglen & H
    Stockton S
    Bury N
    Bolton NE
    Bradford S
    Lincoln
    Wolverhampton SW
    Gedling
    Bedford
    Kensington

    Counted as SNP
    Gordon
    NE Fife
    Glasgow E
    East Renfrewshire

  38. Alec – IF this is a sign that Labor is slurping up the undecideds, the Tories are in terrible trouble.

  39. Schedule for tomorrow:
    7.05 cycle to polling station and vote (Lab obviously)
    7.15 Open ward committee room and set up
    7.30 to 9pm despatch and receive door knockers and leafletters (sneak out at some point for some door knocking of my own)
    Approx 12, 3, 6 Feedback turnout data to constituency office
    9. pm tidy up data, welcome stragglers, settle down to watch the exit poll
    10.30 approx cycle to the count
    11 to ~ 5am monitor count
    ~5am listen to famous victory speeches from somebody and I’d like to thank everybody for being nice in the campaign but we wuz robbed speeches from others
    6am go to bed

  40. Dr Moderates/Mibbles forecast:

    My ‘best guess’ specific prediction:

    CON: ~310
    LAB: ~255

    Labour minority government, which lasts six months with SNP/LD support to deliver a second referendum.

    There is cause for hope, and fear. I think I’ll need a valium to sleep tonight!

  41. The eve of polling day polls all seem slightly better for Labour than in 2017. Of course we haven’t had anything like the Survatilom 41/40 poll.

    Either:

    The pollsters have sorted their methodology and this time they are right.

    Or:

    We are all in for a big shock tomorrow at 10pm.

    Either way, tomorrow looks like its going to be worth staying up for. Which is more then I can say for how I felt about it 2 weeks ago.

    If I was Boris I would be very very nervous tonight.

  42. Schedule for tomorrow (all timings approx, and subject to change depending on events):

    10am: Go to polling station to waste my vote on the Labour candidate (thanks to our crazy FPTP system).

    10.15: On to Chichester to see father-in-hospital (97 years old, advanced demetia, broken hip and arm from a fall yesterday, operated on this afternoon).

    11.30: To either Portsmouth or Southapmton to hide from foul weather and kill time through boring politics-free day in indoor shopping mall. Spending plans: zero.

    4pm: Get home, feed cats.

    4.15: To local supermarket to buy drinks and nibbles for long night ahead.

    4.45: Cook dinner.

    6pm: Onto computer to follow this blog and play games.

    10pm: Join Mrs Git in lounge to watch exit poll and results on TV.

    4am: Bed, either elated or (more like) depressed beyond despair.

  43. I’m working tomorrow night, which totally sucks. I’ll try to have a ciggie break about 10pm. Lots of trepidation and very little hope

  44. Let’s hope for a very well-hung parliament.

  45. Tonybtg,
    “Either:
    The pollsters have sorted their methodology and this time they are right.
    Or:
    We are all in for a big shock tomorrow at 10pm.”

    Dont know about ‘shock’. I have made arguments myself why con percentage might be overestimated and our friend Dr M has made others. So if it comes out a draw again, I will not be shocked. The cases have been made for a very wide range of possible results.

    Whether it is right or not, I argued from the start that the conservative lead was just as flakey as last election. Whatever they said, they must have known that calling an election was a big gamble on the outcome, but then the didnt have anything to lose by having a go. The leave cause had something to lose, but that is not the same as the interest of the conservative party.

    If the polls are as wrong, as some of us think they could be, it starts to look like a pattern. The method of getting a 1500 sample as a quick fix on the mood of the nation just isnt working to give an estimate of who might win an election now. It still ought to give us ideas about trend, but not result.

    Brexit has broken the model behind the polling. It doesnt work when voters have a cause which overrides normal party alliegences. FPP voting doesnt allow it to work, because huge numbers of people are voting for parties they do not like. Which means there is no loyalty, and huge numbers can change sides as soon as they see the interest of their cause changing.

  46. Danny

    “Brexit has broken the model behind the polling.”

    There was plenty of inaccurate polling before 2016.

    GE2015, for example…
    ;-)

  47. Miserable old Git,
    “either elated or (more like) depressed beyond despair.”

    Need to watch those mood swings. Sorry to hear about your dad. It illustrates the problem of the NHS: the more it succeeds, the more it is doomed to fail. The longer you keep people going, the harder it becomes.

    We need some critical medical breakthroughs but it isnt clead it would be in the interests of private sector medical companies to deliver them. What happens to their business model if we all get healthy?

  48. James E,
    “GE2015, for example…”

    2015 was also a brexit election. Won by promising referendum. Funny if labour win this time by promising another.

  49. local straws in the wind:

    Totnes: The Lib Dems have managed to improve their campaign in this highly marginal seat in the last few days, targeting the labour inclined tactical voters. We’ve had loads of letters and emails from film stars and Alistair Campbell, and a few people who I expected to vote labour say they are voting for Sarah Wollaston now…..Within the town of Totnes, the Tory has been almost invisible. I don’t even know his name. Maybe Sarah has a chance after all.

    Another thought: will there be some elderly voters who put the cross opposite Sarah Wollaston, thinking she’s still a conservative?

  50. modest

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