The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. @CB11

    Got to agree. Something in my gut tells me things are swinging Labour’s way. Whether it will be enough, only tomorrow will tell.

    @ADAM

    Polling done on the 9th, so if there has been a slight swing to Labour, the poll may not have fully picked up on that. I think also other problems with the polls will probably mean that Stockton South JUST about stays Labour.

  2. @Adam

    Yes. An extremely closely contested seat with both parties putting a lot of effort into it. Sample size is 425, which is down to about 350 when “would not vote” is removed, so the margin of error would be about +/-5% – a tie in the VI polls, if one that leans Conservative.

    Interestingly Survation also ask “how would you vote if the Lib Dem candidate stopped campaigning and endorsed Labour” – that gives after weighting
    Lab: 48 (+5)
    Con: 43 (-3)
    Brex: 9 (+2)
    LD: 0 (-3) (not given as option)
    Again, +/-5% +added hypothetical error, so still a statistical tie, just a Labour-favouring tie rather than a Conservative-favouring one.

    Between the fieldwork and the release of the poll, the Lib Dem candidate in Stockton South did indeed do just that (possibly having seen the poll results privately?). I don’t expect it to have quite that dramatic an effect – for a start, they will still be on the ballot paper, and not every voter will know they did that – but it’ll be one of the most interesting seats to watch tomorrow night.

  3. Colin

    Me to. One small piece of cheer re Scotland I was speaking to my son-law yesterday who is Conservative coordinator for the Dorset area who in turn had been speaking to his counterparts over the last few days one of which is in Scotland.
    When the GE was called it was expected the SNP were going to make a pretty clean sweep however since then opinion has changed and perhaps against the odds it looks like the Tory vote is holding up quite well.

    But with all these things we will have to wait till Friday the feeling amongst the party is Johnson will scrap over the line but it’s going to be mighty close to many D/K’s for any certainty.

  4. EOR

    If you really want a revision change as follows;

    Cons 350 to 353
    Lab 194 to 211
    LD 35 to 18
    SNP 47 to 44

    All others stay the same.

  5. Laura Kuensberg comments on postal votes, what do you all make of it?

  6. I am surprised no has mentioned this today

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/11/uk-post-brexit-trade-at-risk-as-wto-top-court-shuts-down

    “WTO’s top court shuts down”

    That should help us take back control.

  7. @MDSS

    Electoral Commission just tweeted saying that commenting on postal votes before the exit poll is illegal and should be reported to the police. Seems like they may have been subtweeting her.

  8. DRBASIL

    Strange from Laura, she is usually a professional journalist but behaved in a bizarre fashion this election cycle.

  9. ALEC

    What an absolutely fascinating read -thank you :-)

  10. @MDSS

    She has. I’ve always had my criticisms of her, and of the BBC in general, but I’ve always put it down to me simply being biased. However, as a whole I think the BBC have strayed in to problematic territories this election; they will really need to have a look at themselves afterwards, and Laura K as well.

  11. DRBASIL and CROSSBAT 11

    Hello to you from a lovely Bournemouth East. I think I feel the same as you.

    In the back end of the Feb 1974 campaign, my first GE as a voter- living then in Eccles (Salford) Harold said he detected movement to Labour; my late Welsh-Irish Dad said ‘our people’ were coming back to vote Labour due partly to the Coal Strike.

    Turnout was much higher than on June 18
    Maybe something is happening.

    Colin, my old friendly debater here, said he feared the GE was not going well.

    We shall find out in twenty nine hours time.

  12. EOTW: “WTO’s top court shuts down”

    Yup. It’s a great time to be turning our backs on the world’s biggest free trade area and chancing our arm in the newly unregulated free-for-all out there, where ruthless sharks are circling.

    But brexit, we’re told, isn’t about our future prosperity and wellbeing. It’s an emotional spasm. No price is too high to be paid. Especially if those paying are the great unwashed who can’t spell Pinocchio.

  13. Is she commentating on postal votes or is she commenting on what others have said about postal votes. Big difference.

  14. @MDSS
    What is the likelihood of it being true? Is she quoting a (nervous) CON source who is talking prospects up in the face of a late squeeze, or, is she reporting a range of consistent sources from across the spectrum? It would be a bad look if she is parroting the former. And if it’s the latter then presumably it’s illegal to have disclosed it?

  15. It’s possible that Kuenssberg will be rewarded with a plum Government or Tory job after the campaign – she’s pretty well burned all her boats now as an “impartial” reporter.

    Even the BBC must be able to see she’s now in an untenable position.

  16. @Colin – “What an absolutely fascinating read -thank you :-)”

    No problems. Some seem to think I only ever read things I agree with, but I like rooting out other stuff just as much.

    There is, in a general sense, much of the article that I do agree with. One of the advantages of FPTP is that it has starved the far right in the UK of oxygen. They simply couldn’t prosper in this system. However, with the growth of the online world, that is breaking down, at least representative politics.

  17. TURK

    Thanks-that view of Tory fortunes in Scotland has been expounded a number of times over here by commentators.

    Yes I think it will be very very tight. If you read the article Alec posted, what the “real” Boris absolutely needs is enough MPs to be free of his party fringes.

    I think he will be thwarted in that quest.

  18. Mike N

    I’m afraid you are missing the point. Democracy relies on trust. If you can’t rely on politicians to at least and implement policies they have promised to implement, then that is a fundamental problem for democracy.

    As for your first point, there wasn’t a threshold and everyone knew that. Perhaps the 30% who didn’t bother to vote should have voted then. Obviously, you can tell me with confidence that had they all voted, remain would have won?

  19. Poll with changes just before EU Election from Election Maps from NC Politics. Think we can disregards the changes.

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+16)
    LAB: 33% (+2)
    LDM: 12% (-3)
    BXP: 3% (-11)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @NCPoliticsUK
    , 8-10 Dec.
    Changes w/ 18-21 May (?).

  20. ALEC

    @” One of the advantages of FPTP is that it has starved the far right in the UK of oxygen.”

    Yes -the author’s comparisons with Europe were well made. Germany in particular where the Coalition looks in danger as CDU push pack against the demands of the new Left leadership of their coalition partners.AfD is most certainly waiting in the wings there.

  21. @ BARDIN1 – You probably know DAVWEL has a different view to you! Certainly the issue of whether Scots split along Indy or Brexit lines (and LoC-RoC) lines and which contradictions in the 3Ds of Scottish politics GOTV will make a difference in 10-20 seats that are “marginal”

    Punchy call on CON and SNP seats but within the plausible range

    OLDNAT pointed out that an anagram of my name is Tom Waverer ;)

    This ‘Waverer’ is however in a safe CON seat and might even vote Green to help them get their % up!

    @ JJ – :-) :-) Touche!

    Oh yes, I have no doubt a few LAB folks will be asked to say they’ll back Corbyn’s deal if we get to that point and probably doing so already in LAB-Leave seats in North/Midlands/Wales.

    However, have no doubt that some passionate Leave folks, like moi, will be calling it a “sham” and if you get EU citizens to vote as well then we’ll be calling it “rigged”.

    10% chance we get that point so good that we’re both honest up front about it ;)

    For sure if ‘Remain with no say’ wins then that is technically Leaving (BrINO) so hence True Br-Leavers will need to ensure that side doesn’t win but also ensure folks don’t flock to Remain with a say and put that too far above 17.4million as the VAR/TMO might struggle to over rule that!

    Shame one of us doesn’t own a time machine so we go check what happens in this unlikely, but plausible, scenario.

    Anyway bon chance tomorrow. May the best team win ;)

  22. May the least bad team prevail is perhaps more accurate.

  23. I think it was Turk earlier who asked what would JC do if a Lab minority government was elected and he couldn’t get his manifesto accepted.

    I’d have thought he would then enact the parts he could with C&S from whoever would support them, get the referendum sorted out and then go for another election.

    I’m anticipating a result not as bad as I was a few days ago, but what that actually means I’ve very little idea.

  24. @Colin – But I think he rather overdid the theory. In the US, they have a two party FPTP system, which – according to the logic – should be even harder for the extremes, so his thinking breaks down there. It also adds to my point that the rise of extremism isn’t much to do with the EU, but a global phenomena which really took hold because of the financial crash.

    Indeed, I would argue that we can make a very strong case that it is gross inequality that is the big cause for this, which is something that has been developing since the 1970s. The flatlining of real wages for the majority was a long term feature well before the crash, and this sense of being left behind is far more critical to the growth of extremist ideologies than the EU per se, in my view.

    The EU failed to counter this – which we could list as a fault – but the EU has been around far longer than this version of the far right, so pinning the blame on Brussels is just another extension of traditional Conservative blaming others, in my mind.

  25. Stockton South would have a sophomore effect and the Green candidate pulled out just prior to nominations closing so lower than UNS is to be expected.

    I am more nervous about Darlington where the Green candidate is a local councillor and may do a Nadar.

  26. I believe Brussels is set to propose sanctioning countries blocking the WTO appellate body, including the US. Its is probably too late but the media have failed to explain the importance of WTO. No deal will be a catastrophe given the WTO is no longer functioning. Your average voter will not have the intelligence or appetite to comprehend this.

    All this will officially break after the election. UK will be caught in the middle and feel the greatest impact in a no deal scenario.

  27. I believe Brussels is set to propose sanctioning countries blocking the WTO appellate body, including the US. Its is probably too late but the media have failed to explain the importance of WTO. No deal will be a catastrophe given the WTO is no longer functioning. Your average voter will not have the intelligence or appetite to comprehend this.

    All this will officially break after the election. UK will be caught in the middle and feel the greatest impact in a no deal scenario.

  28. @Alec

    “There is, in a general sense, much of the article that I do agree with. One of the advantages of FPTP is that it has starved the far right in the UK of oxygen. They simply couldn’t prosper in this system. However, with the growth of the online world, that is breaking down, at least representative politics.”

    Rather sceptical of how true that is, all FPTP has lead to is the ‘main’ parties skewing outwards, the far right (and left) aren’t starved of oxygen, they’re very much alive in the main parties and at the moment seem to have a disproportionately high influence. Something I’ve mostly put down to the ‘democratisation’ of the parties themselves. Party members generally hold more extreme views and so allowing them to pick the leader has moved the parties likewise.

    Need only look at some of the rhetoric emitting from johnson and patel recently to see they’re very much fighting fire with fire.

    The rise of the far right in europe is also very overstated by conservative commentators, particularly those in the US. The mature democracies its really been a bit of a damp squib. Even the mentioned AfD have only 13% of the seats, I’d suggest they have considerably less influence than UKIP/BXP have managed, albeit indirectly.

  29. Colin

    At least Johnson if he wins has all the Tory MP’s signed up to get the first part of brexit done.
    As to the negotiations afterwards I not so sure what outcome Johnson will achieve.
    Depends if he has enough MP’s to withdraw the whip from the ones that get in his way, if not I suspect he will take WTO off the table leave the trouble makers in place and look for a softer trade deal with the EU with some cross party support .

  30. OK, my schedule for polling day now sorted:

    7:00am – Walk down to polling station to cast vote for Steve Baker (Con, Wycombe)
    7:30am – Start work
    1:00pm – Finish work, afternoon booked off
    1:30pm – Have a reasonably substantial lunch
    3:30pm – Go to bed, setting alarm for 9:30pm
    9:45pm – Tune into BBC1 to await exit poll
    10:00pm – Whatever the exit poll says, take with a pinch of salt – many marginals may buck the national trend, especially Scottish seats
    10:30pm – Make cafetiere of strong coffee, cut sandwiches, ensure cans of Red Bull in fridge
    12:00am – 4:00am – As results come in, tick off the YouGov list of marginal seats which may change hands and see how they compare with predictions
    4:30am – Unless it is extremely close and all down to the last few declarations, the outcome and updated BBC prediction should be clear by now
    5:00am – Either post gloating message on UKPR, or go back to bed in a huff.

  31. What complete rot, FPTP actually enables the extremes and normalises them. Modern day tory party is a long way to the right of the german AFD. Merkel is really a libdem and a left leaning one at that. The US is so extreme that it doesn’t even have public health care and abortion is effectively illegal in most states. Boris himself would be considered too extreme for most European right wing fringe parties

  32. So many of the Scots seats are so marginal, that “prediction” is a misnomer!

    Having had a look at the shifts in the YG constituency data recently, I think there may be sufficient tactical voting to produce the following in Scotland –

    SNP 42 : SLab 7 : SCon 5 : SLD 5 – though not necessarily with any party holding all the seats they had!

    I suspect both ABJ (Johnson) and ABS forces at work.

    MOG

    I’ll add in guesses for rUK later and give you my entry.

  33. Kuenssberg really should be keeping her mouth shut about the postal voting. The BBC have really performed abysmally during this campaign.

    As for the outcome I remain entirely pessimistic. Con maj 25

  34. @ADAM

    Done, ta

  35. David Carrod

    5.00am get up
    5.55 load three lots of polling cases and ballot boxes into car, collect two other presiding officers to take to their stations (very near mine)
    6.10 drop them off
    6.20 arrive at my station
    7.00 open station, hopefully indoors although I have run a station out of the back of my car in the rain before when the keyholder didn’t turn up
    10.00pm seal box, pack up as quickly as humanly possible and get the h*ll out
    10.20 pick up other PIs and drive to collection point for boxes
    10.30 join queue to drop off boxes, check news about exit poll on phone
    11.00 (hopefully) get away from drop off
    11.25 get home, read news, go to bed, fall asleep listening to radio coverage

  36. CON 307
    LAB 255
    SNP 47
    LIB 22
    GRN 1
    DUP 9
    SF 7
    SDLP 2

  37. @SHEVII

    My apologies! :-) I knew I recognised Mark Brexit Smith from somewhere but couldn’t place who he was standing against.

  38. @Archer

    Nice prediction. It crossed my mind yesterday that a sublime result would be an identical result as 2017, but with the exception of Uxbridge and South Ruislip going to Labour.

    :D

  39. @ TURK / COLIN – Boris and x-party support.

    We all know that May made the mistake of asking for it only after she was desperate that DUP have crashed her deal (2x) and then b0tching it by making it look like “bungs” for certain MPs and then asking Corbyn (which killed her deal and her leadership of CON and role as PM)

    I’ve no idea if Boris WILL do better but he surely can’t be any worse.

    Social Care should be a x-party long-term issue and perhaps will be used to get some LAB MPs “on board” the Team Boris bus (notably the ones who squeak through keeping their seat in the ‘Red Wall’ and will be desperate to avoid another risky GE)

    There’s more in Santa Boris’s sack though!

    Who want’s some Environment and/or Worker’s rights as a “fig leaf” to back Boris’s WAB? Anyone fancy a “freeport” or bit of State help near them?

    It’s a Boris “promise” mind you so I expect LAB MPs will want to see the money BEFORE the delivering the votes (and given the 31Jan’20, 1Jul’20 and 1Jan’21 dates and lead times then that is going to tricky to say the least!)

    The art of the “bung” is knowing what the person wants (fig leafs and pork barrels) and doesn’t want (another GE if they are in a very marginal seat) and I’m not uncertain[1] CCHQ have a detailed list of who might want what when!

    [1] Given I helped pass some of that information on! Some more will obviously depend on the result – might not need too many fig leafs and might be able to roll the pork barrel out elsewhere (eg in marginal CON/SCON holds) – “all to play for!”

    No LDEM MPs or “bungs” were on the list. Sorry, they get a lump of coal this year (clean coal I hope – project in the pipeline for that!)

  40. MDSS

    If you Get Brexit Done with Boris you wont have to worry about WTO ?

    :)

  41. Statgeek/Archer
    Indeed, just what I thought.

    My original seats prediction several weeks ago was for an identical result apart from one going from Lab to Con to reflect the change in speaker and one picked at random in NI to reflect Lady Hermon’s stepping down. I think there will be some churn, but it would be about the best result I’m prepared to hope for.

  42. @SAM

    That’s 650, but nothing for Plaid / the Speaker?

  43. Lets play hope and believe. Hope is what you’d like based on possibilities within campaign polling. Believe is what you think will be the outcome.

    Hope: Large Tory majority
    Believe: Small Tory majority

  44. @ EOR – What’s the highest anyone has posted for CON?

    Go big or go home I say so let me know and I’ll be Max(CON)+1 and fill in the rest from there.

    No point being in the herd or the flock – death or glory it is ;)

  45. @ OldNat

    Based on my LD mole Con to be higher at between 10 & 16, there are several paper thin differences vote wise in some constituencies. SLAB down to 2, SLD down to 3 and SNP between 38 & 44. Jo Swinson to hang on………..just!

  46. @Princess Rachel

    “What complete rot, FPTP actually enables the extremes and normalises them. Modern day tory party is a long way to the right of the german AFD. ”

    I agree in part with you. Because our electoral system entrenches two party politics, to the exclusion of almost all others (SNP have established a virtual monopoly of Scotland Westminster seats mainly due to FPTP), the broad church Leviathans of Labour and Tory accommodate extremist elements that would splinter away into distinct and smaller parties in a truly representative PR based electoral system. So, in that sense, I agree with you that FPTP normalises extremism by forcing the main parties to provide political refuge for what used to be called “fellow travellers”.

    Of course there are a host of other reasons why our electoral system is moribund and you will have a smorgasbord of them to chew over from Friday onwards.

    But, in essence, the argument that one of its saving graces is that it marginalises extremism is poppycock. It just puts a red or blue rosette and a nice suit on its purveyors, and a veneer of political respectability too. Your word “normalises” is rather a good one.

    It probably provides a quicker route into powerful positions for them too whereas a PR system would see them floating around in minor parties who may or may not occasionally get into coalitions. The difference being that they’re out and proud and you know exactly who they are and what they stand for. The ERG in the Tory Party are called Conservatives. Are they really, in any true meaning of that word, but they’re standing for the Tory Party in this election.

    A vote cast in a FPTP system is really a blind one. You have no idea what you’re getting until it’s too late.

  47. @Andrew Williams

    I’ll play

    Hope: Hung parliament, 2nd referendum and Indy referendum, Scottish independence by 2021

    Believe: Large Tory majority and a shambles

  48. UK seat guesses

    Con 322
    Lab 248
    SNP 42
    LD 15
    DUP 9
    SF 7
    PC 3
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

  49. @Andrew Williams

    Hope: Hung Parliament. I don’t think this will lead to paralysis. MPs on all sides will be far more aware of their responsibilities and the need for consensus. Also, I don’t like large majorities. They lead to elective dictatorship.

    Believe: Large Tory majority. There is far more likelihood of the red wall falling than it being shored up – especially with most pollsters suggesting a Tory lead of around 10%. By large I mean above 50.

  50. @EDGEOFREASON

    Con 295
    Lab 275
    SNP 42
    LD 15
    DUP 9
    SF 7
    PC 3
    SDLP 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1

    Think that adds up. Going with my optimism.

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