The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. Nickp
    You’re right! I hadn’t thought of that. No wonder our politics has gone confusing. The polls should probably have a question ‘Are you a foreign agent’. That’d sort it. :)

  2. “What is Johnson’s obsession with tampons?”

    He can’t think of any other reason why Brexit will be beneficial.

  3. @Pete B

    Secure the rights for that script before someone else does. ;)

    “The 40 Year Sleeper : Rip Van Corbyn”

    :D

  4. @Pete B
    Close but not quite Pete.
    It was the CIA covering their bets in the 1970s.
    Robert Harris in his book ‘The Ghost’ covered one half of it.
    It was made into a film with Piers Morgan playing in all but name Tony Blair in post-Iraq retirement.
    But the CIA were very active infiltrating CND in the 1970s.

  5. @nickp

    Last time the problem was that the polls found the extra 5% Labour voters, then decided that they probably wouldn’t show up when modelling turnout. The turnout models that did that have been discarded, though, so won’t be causing errors this time round.

    That’s not to say that the polls *aren’t* underestimating Labour by 5% – or indeed overestimating Labour by 5% or more, as many did in the EU elections – but that if they are it’s for a completely different reason to last time.

  6. “What is Johnson’s obsession with tampons?”

    Are tampons identified as an issue by panellists? I know that some women cannot afford them. So, Johnson is seeking to gain the female vote here?

    But surely make them freely available?

  7. J S-B
    I’ll have to look out for that book. Sounds interesting.

  8. I think there is some possibility of Labour taking some Con marginals. Some time ago I wondered why Johnson was in Mansfield if the polls were so good.

  9. @ J S-B

    You’re being rather kind to Piers Morgan.

  10. The idea that Ashworth would deliberately conspire to leak the story is laughable for two reasons

    Firstly it makes him appear incompetent

    Secondly it will make the very large number of current Corbyn supporters even more less likely to vote for him in any leadership election. The person who wields the knife seldom get’s chosen to be leader

  11. Alec

    It seems that Telegraph columnist Allison Pearson played a particular role in the misinformation that went on yesterday, in which there were false claims that the photo was faked. According to the Guardian

    “she retweeted screenshots of the Facebook page to her followers twice, telling them “I presume this is genuine”, and adding later that the photo was “100% faked”.”

    Thread here:
    https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/status/1204149569082331137

    Notable also is that Alison Pearson wrote in her twitter post that “a great Ormond Street nurse has explained to me in detail that it was 100% faked”. This gives the strong impression that Alison Pearson spoke to the nurse in depth, and had some kind of personal interaction with her, such that she could personally vouch for how “great” a nurse she was and the detail in the explanation. Which seems difficult to sustain since it came from a hacking operation.

    The thread shows the power of social media manipulation. Who did it? There may be a criminal investigation, according to the Mark Owen Jones, the writer of the thread.

  12. Is there anything worse than a party supporter (be it Labour or Conservative), insisting the polling is badly wrong and understating their side dramatically..

    I mean isn’t this hypocritical when in the example of the referendum, wasn’t there this core argument that during the referendum we didn’t listen to the experts on Brexit. Arnt the polling companies the experts here? I think with politics people only see what they are looking for, which is why you can probably discount a lot of these news stories.

  13. Surely Labour have a chance of taking Hastings, Chipping Barnet and Chingford & Woodford?

    Hastings’ Tory candidate has said some pretty toxic stuff, and of course any incumbency benefit Rudd had will have gone, whilst those other 2 seats, in Outer London, are trending towards Labour with unpopular figures De Villiers and IDS vulnerable to targeted campaigns.

  14. CIM

    This is exactly my take. I don’t think the polls will be 5% out this time – I think the might be a couple of points out, which is margin of error. However, I do think that it is more likely that over-estimating Labour is more likely than under-estimating this time.

    The last polls will be fascinating, but there is already some evidence that the Conservatives may do much better in Scotland than was thought at the start of the campaign. To a lesser extent, there are hints that they will also do well in Wales – overall net gains.

    In Scotland, at least some of that may be down to tactical voting. It may just be that many people in Scotland see independence as worse than Brexit. Since the polls seems to be showing SCon holding up and Lab well down, perhaps there is something in that. I’m not quite ready to predict what happens in Scotland yet, but it currently looks to me as if it has some similarities with 1992. Then SCon confounded all predictions by losing only one seat. It turned out to be one of the main reasons Major won the election. As the polls closed, I can tell you that privately, SCon thought they might have lost the lot.

  15. “The 5% VAT on sanitary products works out as £5-6 per year on average per user.”

    And after the EU agreed to a UK proposal, a rule change is coming in next year that will mean we can zero rate tampons, without leaving the EU.

  16. Surely any reduction in the price of tampons will only be for a limited period?

    I’ll get my coat …

  17. “Is there anything worse than a party supporter (be it Labour or Conservative), insisting the polling is badly wrong and understating their side dramatically..”

    A journalist in the leading Conservative newspaper tweeting out to millions of people claiming that a “great nurse” had “explained in detail” how a photo of a sick child “was 100% faked” and then, when the damage is done, deleting the tweet.

    By comparison Dr Moderate is very honourable indeed. He is just doing a robustness/sensitivity analysis of existing polling.

  18. @Bill

    Labour/Momentum have been targeting these seats since well before the election, but Chipping Barnet has large Jewish population who should keep the seat Blue.
    IDS has also been targeted for a while, but I think he’ll hang on though its clearly tight: note Boris visit the other day. Brexit stand down helps him a lot.
    Don’t think Hastings is another Canterbury.

  19. One correction to what I said – the “Great” in Pearson’s post applies to “Ormond Street” not to the nurse. Even so – her tweet is still shocking.

  20. Where do the undecided voters break to. How clever will the tactical voting be. On face value the leavers have an easy choice vote Conservative and get Brexit. However will a large percentage of Labour leavers really be able to give the Conservatives 5 years.

    In 2016 I walked to the polling station intending to vote leave, I walked in picked up my card but just could not tick the leave box. I ended up changing my mind in the booth and voting remain.

  21. Alec

    This plays right into the Brexit narrative. The argument goes ” in the EU, we had to make a proposal and wait forever for all 28 countries to agree to something that patently should not have required any discussion at all. In the UK, we would have abolished the VAT years ago, but our hands were tied by yet more EU red tape.”

    I am not saying any of that is accurate, but it is precisely the message the Conservatives are trying to get across – they will get Brexit done, so that the UK is free to do the right thing.

  22. @rich

    As with the Brexit referendum, the unanswered question until Friday is “which experts do you listen to? / should you have listened to?”.

    ICM are predicting Con+6 (narrow Con majority or possibly hung parliament) while Opinium are predicting Con+15 (Con landslide victory). They could both even technically be right – within margin of error – if the result is somewhere in the middle.

    The collective expertise is saying “well, probably not a Labour majority this time” … which I don’t think even the Labour supporters would disagree with but isn’t that enlightening either.

  23. Ah, Brexit means we might be able to reduce the price of tampons.

    Oh that’s ok then. Let’s get out asap.

    Oh wait, what’s that you say, “we can prob do this in the EU”

    Ah ok. As you were. It was just our on the ball PM trying to sound like he has a clue.

  24. @PeteB
    APLOGIES – ‘The Ghost Writer’ by Robert Harris (a close family friend of Tony Blair btw).
    If you have a local library, they may have it.
    Selling for 50p plus postage on Amazon second hand (good) copies.
    I will look out for the film coming on Tv and flag it up.
    I do not know people’s names and addresses so I cannot do Christmas gifts on this site.
    Further, the CIA and CND is a curious thing. It was alluded to in The Edge of Darkness BBC series in the 1980s mentioned the CIA infiltrating CND under Jimmy Carter’s direct orders. Under their plants organisation, recruitment and crucially finance, the CIA helped mobilise it to emerge as a powerful force from being a joke. Under Reagan the CIA were told to drop it but by then it had mushroomed into something they could not just switch off. Usual CIA story. Build up a group but then lose control of it. Then they end up building another group to combat it. Then lose control of that.
    The CIA were of the view Aldrich Ames was a trustworthy fellow at the time so gave him control of the Russia desk and all the agents in Russia. They were executed rapidly. He was of course a Russian double agent (paid around $5 million, gambling debts to clear etc).
    Happily the CIA would never dream of UK infiltrating polling organisations. Nor did they use three pollsters and consultants to get Yeltsin re-elected in 1996 even though TIME magazine wrote an article about it and Jeff Goldblum starred in the movie ‘Spinning Boris’: SMILEY FACE

  25. I still think Dr Moderate is trying to get to the result he wants.

    After the last election, the polling companies changed their methodology to take account of the mistakes they made.

    The current lead for the Conservatices is between 6 and 15%.

    It appears that Dr Moderate has decided that, in spite of changes in methodology, the polling companies are still wrong and still underestimating Labour support.

    Not only that, he thinks that the polling company with the VI that is most favourable to Labour, is underestimating their support.

    Imagine if someone suggested that the polls were wrong in the other direction and to the same extent. Without fail, everyone on here would say that was ridiculous.

    He may be right and we will know on Friday, but he seems to be taking a very big punt.

  26. ALEC And after the EU agreed to a UK proposal, a rule change is coming in next year that will mean we can zero rate tampons, without leaving the EU.

    That’s the point. Our taxes are our concern – we shouldn’t even be asking the EU. We should never have been in the position where we were.

    I fully expect Sajid Javid to remove quite a lot of VAT come next february when we no longer have to chuck 5% to the EU. Things such as removing the reduced rate VAT from domestic electricity, reducing the standard rate downwards from 20% to 17.5% or even 15%. Or maybe even scrapping it altogether and replacing it with something else.

  27. @martinw
    @ J S-B
    You’re being rather kind to Piers Morgan.
    …………..……………………
    Thank you. My error made me laugh.
    Hasn’t it been a dreadful campaign by all parties? Few laughs.
    Piers Brosnan, Ewan McGregor, and playing Robin Cook the Foreign Secretary who left the Cabinet over the war Robin Pugh.
    ‘The Ghost Writer’.

  28. Angela Raynor will be the next labour leader, she spent most of the year shoring up support among the centrist MPs and now is seen everywhere by the side of Corbyn. The two things she needs are enough nominating MPs and enough membership support from the corbynista wing, she has both. Hardliner corbynistas want Laura Pidcock or long bailey but those two dont have enough support among MPs and will have a strong anti vote from the remaining ‘moderates’ in the membership plus a large portion of the more moderate Corbynistas. One thing that Laura Pidcock does have is massive new media support, I’m not sure how AR gets some of that new media on her side, I expect owen Jones will be backing her.

  29. Pierce Brosnan.

  30. Stamped
    Might it be that the Tory ‘right thing’ is squeezing the poorest in society even more and they want Brexit because the EU would limit their capacity to do so? Similar reasons for Corbyn’ s past attitude to the EU, but in a different strategic direction.

  31. I want some of whatever Andrew Williams is on.

  32. @Andrew Williams – you are aware, I assume, of the Conservatives long, long record of increasing VAT?

    On domestic fuel for example, had the Conservatives not introduced VAT on this in 1993 (up from zero to 8%, later reduced by Labour to 5%) we would still have a zero rating on all domextic fuel.

    And Javid doesn’t need to wait until January 2021 to reduce VAT. He could reduce it to 15% on everything right now!

    If you really think a Conservative government post Brexit will reduce VAT in any meaningful way, you really are living the life of a simpleton.

  33. STEAMDRIVENANDY Might it be that the Tory ‘right thing’ is squeezing the poorest in society even more and they want Brexit because the EU would limit their capacity to do so?

    I think the ordinary people of Greece for example may beg to differ.

  34. @Bill

    Southampton Itchen? Reading West? Harrow East and maybe Bolton West?

  35. @ J S-B

    Yes, one of my favourite films. I’ve got it saved on my Youview box.

  36. @ Princess Rachel

    “Angela Raynor will be the next labour leader”

    I quite like her.

    Is there any support for Lisa Nandy?

  37. Steamdriveandy

    I’m not passing any comment on what the Conservatives will or won’t do. I’m simply pointing out that this is all about a message. The message is “Get Brexit Done” and the abolition of VAT in this area allows that message to be reinforced.

  38. There’s an awful lot (and I choose the word “awful” deliberately) of partisan campaigning on here at the moment.

    Anything more futile is hard to imagine.

    All those posting here, and lurkers as well, are politically sophisticated enough to recognise that crap, and also clear on the issues that determine their VI.

    There are no potential converts here.

  39. @STAMPER

    You may be right about Dr Mibbles. However, with your point that if people were arguing that the polls were wrong the other way that they would be ridiculed, I don’t agree. Anyone is entitled to argue whatever they want, as long as they provide evidence for this. Whether Dr Mibbles is right or whether he is allowing his own persuasions to cloud his visions, he does ultimately provide evidence for his assertions.

    Also, people talk about how pollsters have readjusted their methods since decreasing the Labour vote in 2017, but didn’t they over predict Labour in EU elections? If so, have they readjusted again the other way?

  40. @Alec

    Your discussion of how EU state aid regulations would conntinue to be applied in NI under the WA is fascinating – thank you. If I have you right, would it be fair to say that the situation is essentially just that the EU state aid regulations will apply in NI come what may, and that the choice for HMG is whether to keep alignment across rUK, else run a different regime that is GB only.

    Could I ask, assuming HMG chose to avoid alignment and therefore have a more generous state aid regime in GB, would this situation likely produce any kind of additional checks/forms/etc on the GB-NI border, or otherwise create additional administrative burdens? Or is the issue ‘only’ that NI businesses would be receiving a comparatively less generous offer, causing a regional imbalance that made NI a less attractive investment prospect?

    Could I also ask, with respect to this NI ‘frontstop’, is state aid the only significant area of regulatory alignment with the EU that would be mandatory under the WA for NI? Or are there other regulations (or tariffs, even?) that would apply to NI automatically under the WA?

  41. Ok – I think it has gone against Labour in the last couple of weeks, LDs are polling too high and I fear the Red Wall will be breached. So my final attempt at prescience is:

    Con: 352
    Lab: 208
    SNP: 49
    LD: 19
    DUP: 8
    SF: 7
    Alliance: 2
    PC: 2
    Green: 1
    UUP: 1
    Speaker: 1

  42. I don’t think the incident with Boris and the journalist’s phone has been reported fairly. Boris was seen to be arrogant by taking his phone – but that’s easier said in hindsight, it’s not like he was violent to get hold of it or something!
    Once Boris had finished what he was in the middle of saying before the picture had been offered to him by the journalist, he made a full and frank apology.

    Be that as it may, that’s not how it’s been reported or viewed and the damage is done and Cons supporters on here are deluding themselves if they don’t think so, IMO, even though I wish they were right.

    There’s no doubt in my mind that this is much worse for Boris than today’s Ashworth ‘revelation’ is for Corbyn.

    That’s because:

    a) Sharing that clip of that bit of the conversation and the picture of the little boy, triggers emotions – we all make buying decisions on emotion whether we realise it or not.

    b) The timing was perfect for needing a new story in the election cycle and at just the time when the extra large cohort of undecided voters would likely be making up their minds – and many of them are women for whom this sight, fairly or unfairly, will have triggered something in them.

    It doesn’t seem rational to base who you want in government for 5 years purely on that, even if you believe it’s been completely fairly reported, but that’s what we’re like – we need a nudge to jump off the fence and decide, and so we do irrational when we’re triggered.

    The effect may or may not be final or mortal, but the timing and optics of what was actually basically a minor incident could not have been worse for the Tories.

  43. Martinw

    There was before the coup, she was very popular and had a lot of left wing media in her corner. But she participated in the attempted coup, and that will destroy any leadership bid she makes. Hope she gets on to the front bench in the future, her role in the coup was minor so her career isnt over.

  44. @NeilJ
    ……………………………………………………..
    The idea that Ashworth would deliberately conspire to leak the story is laughable for two reasons
    Firstly it makes him appear incompetent
    Secondly it will make the very large number of current Corbyn supporters even more less likely to vote for him in any leadership election. The person who wields the knife seldom get’s chosen to be leader
    ……………………………………………………….

    You may be right on both points.
    but
    Your first point – He is incompetent if he did not behave as if he was talking to an open mic when talking to political opposition two days before the GE polling day.

    Your second point – he may just be dim OR acting for others who hand out plum Shadow Cabinet jobs.

    Then again Henry VII did get to wear the Crown. If Richard III killed the Princes, he got to wear the crown for two years (and is among the top ten best remembered Kings of England). Didn’t Churchill take out Chamberlain? Heseltine came very close to it. He still got 7 years in Cabinet and two as Deputy-PM with a big office inside Downing Street. And his main policy on the EU lasted another 26 years because of his strike on Thatcher.
    How instrumental was Foot in taking out Callaghan? Callaghan taking out Wilson? Kinnock taking out Foot? Smith taking out Kinnock? Blair taking out Brown? Brown taking out Blair?
    David Miliband did not become Labour leader and PM because he would not wield the knife in 2009. He would not resign and call for Brown to step down.

  45. Martin W – Lisa Nandy has plenty of support but her son is only 5 or so and I think she will resist any attempts to persuade her to stand just yet.

  46. @ Princess Rachel

    Thanks for that reply. I hadn’t understood why she was no longer in the frame. I still think she’s the best.

  47. I think Angela Raynor is a good shout for next labour leader – she has charm, wit, ambition and passion and a compelling backstory. she is left enough for the membership and not one of the corbyn old guard so acceptable to enough of the PLP.
    Raynor as leader and Long Bailey as shadow chancellor would be an excellent combo IMHO.

    Starmer is too dull and he and Thornberry are seen as too right wing for most of the membership.

  48. as for the election – i think polling has become more and more inaccurate due to social and demographic changes and a volatile electorate – however there is definitely a solid bloc of voters for whom “get brexit done” trumps everything else.

    Whilst i think labour are possibly still being unestimated – It all points to a 20-40 seat majority for the tories – but with some individual surprise results.

  49. JSB / PETE B

    Interestingly the film was ‘The Ghostwriter’ but the book was just called ‘The Ghost’ – and as ever, the book was better than the film. (The sole exception to this rule-of-thumb is ‘The Bible’ which was grim, but still better than the book)
    ‘The Ghostwriter’ was directed by Polanski and shot on the German North Sea Coast and at Babelsberg Studios near Berlin (where Fritz Lang‘s ‘Metropolis’ and ‘The Blue Angel’ we’re made.) For obvious legal reasons Polanski traveling to America to shoot on location was not an option.
    :)

    I believe Harris fell out with the Blairs big time when the book came out but that he was so furious about Iraq he didn’t care.

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