The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.

2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. Ignoring the rather unpleasant unsavoury nature of a political sting no matter whom it is perpetrated on I can’t help feeling the Ashworth one is particularly damaging at this stage.

    If he was shadow minister for anything else it would have soon been forgotten, but he isn’t. He is Labour’s shadow minister for Heath. LAB want to talk about the NHS, the NHS, the NHS (and not Brexit), it is their main election strategy.

    How can LAB they pursue this strategy in the last two days if their prospective health minister dare not appear on TV because he is now the story?

    Having listened to the whole tape I am quite gobsmacked it is so disrespectful of his leader and his party’s prospects, he has to be sacked.

  2. Today’s dire GDP and trade figures don’t seem to be having much impact.

    Imports grew unexpectedly faster than exports in October as businesses stockpiled goods in case of a no-deal Brexit.

    The trade deficit widened to £5.2bn from £1.9bn in September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), exceeding economists’ predictions of £3bn. (source: D Tel)

    So that’s a deficit of £5,200 million. Which makes the £73m deficit that put the skids under the Tories’ 1964 election campaign look pretty small beer:

    On 30 September, a Daily Mail poll showed the Conservatives enjoying a 2.9% lead. That day also saw the release of balance of payments figures showing a £73m deficit. Labour jumped on this economic crisis. Wilson blasted the Tories’ economic policies as “stop-go” and although the Tories fought back, attacking Labour’s spending commitments, their lead in the opinion polls began to fall away.


  3. Kehu
    If Ashworth was to be sacked before the election I think it should have been done immediately, but Corbyn isn’t very decisive. Not surprising, as he’s spent his life on the back benches and addressing gatherings of the faithful rather than actually having to make any decisions that matter.

  4. @ TW

    So SNP and LibDems both seem to have shot themselves in the foot by forcing this election.

  5. @PeteB

    Yes – the error has been much smaller than 20 seats in most of the recent elections, with 2005 and 2010 being almost spot on, and 2017 only off by at most four seats for any party. 2015 was a bit further out at 15 seats underestimate for the Conservatives.

    The exit poll team are trying to manage expectations and make clear that they got a bit lucky those times, and +/-20 is still pretty good – YouGov’s MRP is currently with ranges closer to +/-30 on Lab and Con seats, though that might change with tonight’s update.

  6. Dr Moderate/Mibbles has adjusted his statistics and is now forecasting a Con lead nationally of 4.45%. They are saying that due to the differential impact of the BXP, this means a small swing to Lab from Con in Lab held seats. Of all the critiques he is providing, this one seems to most off kilter, as pretty much everyone and their dog thinks Lab is bleeding votes to Con in the Red Wall seats.

    Having said that, a national lead of 4.45% is very close to the 6% figures we have had, including from the once Golden Boys and Girls of ICM.

  7. On the Leeds hospital story, can anyone verify the claims that the son of the woman who initially spread the discredited rumour that the picture was staged has a son who is listed on his FB page as a friend oF M Hancock?

    The woman now claims her FB page was hacked. If the family link to the Health Sec is confirmed, that would be a truly remarkable coincidence.

  8. Electoral Calculus has been updated again today, now predicting a Con OM of 48.

    Tonight’s YouGov MRP will be interesting if it broadly supports that analysis.

  9. Have seen Dr Moderate updated his analysis on Twitter and again predicting a hung parliament. He’s getting lots of attention having attracted thousands of new followers since he started tweeting his predictions and critiques of current polling in past few days. His followers include some prominent journalists and Momentum Press team (in line with his leanings).
    His analysis is rigorous, but there is still a sense he is adjusting to achieve his desired result.
    His view is that BXP in Tory marginals is a significant barrier to Tory gains, but I think they are actually an opportunity for the Tories to put on a late squeeze.
    In my ‘Top Down’ analysis, the Tories don’t need +9 for a majority, they need +5 (taking out 7 Sinn Fein). Buckingham (Bercow’s seat) is a Tory cert and therefore free gain, meaning they need +4.
    Tories doing much better in Scotland vs Labour then anticipated so I think their Scottish losses likely no more than 5, plus down South I think none of the independents will win and Tories may well lose St Albans, Richmond Park and 4 or 5 other net.
    This means they probably only need to win net 14 seats in the ‘Red Wall’ (credit James Kanagasooriam with that term). The reason I think this is highly likely even if the Tory lead is quite a bit lower than +10 is there are so many of these seats. Tories don’t need to be winning every one, just probably 15-20, and many of these have very small Labour majorities. This campaign feels nothing like 2017, the Tories have played it safe and kept their message simple to target these seats.I’d be very surprised if this strategy hasn’t paid off by Friday morning, but if tonights MRP predicts a Con majority and we get a Hung Parliament, the pollsters are all going to have a lot to answer for.

  10. Alec
    Can you clarify this please?

    Is there some chance that MH went to Leeds to ‘suppress’ the story via the child’s mother?

  11. @Pete B
    Ashworth blunder or a cunning deal with a journalist to help his pitch for leadership run on December 13th?
    If you know the game is up, know Corbyn is going, know that some moderate potential leadership candidates will lose their seats, then why not position yourself as the one who understands why they will lose and how they can win next time.
    Accept Corbyn and his camp are toxic and must be removed from the party.
    Accept Leave, some kind of Brexit, is now a given.

  12. @ ALEC – if you want to ignore my posts and claim your own projection of my opinion then that is up to you.

    i doubt you’ll remember but it’s now been OVER 2yrs since May’s fateful agreement to the Joint Report (notably the horrific c49 that became the dreadful “backstop”)

    May allowed Foster to crash her bus.

    Boris?? He threw Foster off the bus

    NB not under the bus – off the bus. She (along with Dodds+co) then chose to throw themselves under the bus, which has thankfully saved Boris the need to find ECJ compliant ways to offer “bung2” – May wasted 1bn quid for zero DUP votes (a reflection on her incompetence and DUP’s arrogance in thinking they controlled the whole UK)

    We’ve wasted over 2yrs due to May’s incompetence. The disaster GE and the fateful “C+S” pact with DUP. After 13Dec’19 we’ll be back to about where we should have been on 13Dec’17!

    Maybe some of the other “bad bits” in the WA wouldn’t be there is Gove hadn’t stabbed Boris in the front back in Jun’16 and Boris had been able to start with a genuinely fresh sheet rather than having to “improve” May’s awful deal for GB

    I hope you appreciate a memory refresher (although I don’t know why I bother)

  13. What was electoral calculus predicting in 2017? About the same, I think.

  14. I’ve updated my NI seat prediction model to include confidence ranges. (low – central – high, change v GE’17)

    CON 0 – 0 – 0 (0)

    100% confidence

  15. The fake Britain Elect accounts on twitter are like an idiot identifier.

  16. Is Dr.Mibbles guilty of “herding”? :-) :-)

    I hope he throws himself off his own twitter feed :-) :-)

  17. If fact they were predicting a Con majority of 66 in 2017.

  18. J-S-B,

    Ashworth has no chance of becoming leader, he is disliked by many across the party.

  19. I see Johnson is again saying he’d get rid of the tampon tax.

    I may be naive…but removing the tax wil simply lead to the suppliers / retailers increasing the shelf price to make bigger profits?

    I’m also thinking Johnson is a having a cone-zone moment.

  20. J S-B
    “Ashworth blunder or a cunning deal with a journalist to help his pitch for leadership run on December 13th?”

    I’m clearly too naive for politics. That never even crossed my mind! (Honestly)

  21. Alec

    Good to see the truth come out about the boy on the hospital floor and the misinformation via claims that the photo was fake.

  22. @Alec

    Yes, the effect of Brex only standing in half the seats is tricky to assess. I think Dr Mibbles is certainly taking the most optimistic guess at the effect, but I agree it’s possible it works out that way. Also possible it has very minimal effect, or actually helps the Conservatives.

    UKIP actual vote in 2017 was about 2%, while Brex are polling at 3-4% (so therefore 6-8% in the seats they’re standing in). Of course, in 2017 UKIP were *polling* at 4-5%, so Brex might not be doing as well as they look either and even doubling their vote won’t change things much.

    Another big question is how this vote is distributed – if it’s roughly flat across all types of Labour-held seats, that’s probably good for Labour and protects a few marginals. If it’s mostly piled up in seats like Sunderland and Barnsley … well, they’ll probably hold those seats anyway, but it won’t be stopping the Conservatives taking the Con-Lab marginals.

    A third question is what it actually means for the Conservative-held marginals. Obviously Brex won’t pick up votes there, but how many of the voters will have realised that they aren’t standing before they get to the voting booth, and what will they do when they get there? Or will they just stay at home? If Labour are doing better than expected for other reasons, this could then put the brakes on them.

  23. @Mike N

    What is Johnson’s obsession with tampons?

  24. Watch for December 13th, the next de facto Labour leadership may be done before Christmas.
    Ashworth nominated Yvette Cooper for leader in 2015. He supported Ed Miliband as leader. He nominated Tom Warson as Deputy Leader.
    The moderates are positioning for the December 12th defeat to seize the party from the younger Corbyn supporters.
    If they cannot, then we are just storing up bigger problems. The Opposition eventually gets in. Just like the Democrats in the USA eventually a ‘we do not need an army, we do not need business’ will get to be the Presidential candidate when the Republicans cannot win. Eventually every government loses office. It is why we need sensible viable Oppositions.

  25. Bigfatron has been talking much sense at 2.59. 3.19 pm and earlier.

    I am certain that a Johnson OM will cause much argument during the next few years, and substantial loss of income for many, with bankruptcies in sectors like farming. There will simply not be money to pay for the promised goodies such as the 40 hospitals.

    And if Johnson defies democracy again, and refuses a 2nd indy ref, then we will have serious trouble in Scotland and organised civil disobedience against the “English” government.

    So those here thinking that Brexit arguments will soon be over are in for a big shock. The arguments so far are minor compared to the battles ahead.

  26. I just done a constituency-based poll for Opinium. One of the questions was how good a job was Corbyn doing as leader of Labour. I said very good, (because I want Labour to lose and he’s doing his best to make that happen). But that will presumably feed into the net satisfaction figures for the leaders. I wonder how much of Corbyn narrowing that particular gap is because of RoC voters thinking the same as me?

  27. Any hung Parliament equals EU referendum 2 unless the DUP can be sold on a deal. If we end up as you were 6 weeks ago I don’t think there is any other alternative.

  28. @TW

    If Gina Miller is right and there are only 8 Lib Dem MPs in the next Parliament, I think you will be able to make some money betting on a new Lib Dem leader. The Lords Group, comprising 94 Peers, were pretty quick to defenestrate Tim Farron despite him gaining seats in 2017. Depending on who is left, we could be looking at a post-Coalition leader.

    My own view is that we will be close to but below 20; although my MOG-competition estimate was 25, that was based on a rather higher level of overall LD support.

  29. Trevor – re Sedgefield,

    The Tories seem to be concentrating on Bishop Auckland, Darlington and Stockton South with Darlington and Sedgefield Conservatives (the don’t have enough members in Sedgefield for a viable branch) getting nervous in Darlington, having been in front for several months.

    So are Labour mind and I would expect the result to be within 1000 votes either way and it could be one of those less than 100 votes seats.

    Upshot – Labour hold Sedgefield imo

  30. @Mike N – this is nothing to do with the sick boy’s mother, but the claim is that a woman (connected to the NHS I think) started to spread the rumour tht the photo was staged via her FB page. She denies doing this, claiming her account was hacked. It is being suggested online that this woman’s son lists Mat Hancock as one of his FB friends. There is therefore (allegedly) a connection between the account spreading false claims and the health secretary.

    To repeat: the claim that the picture was staged has been completely rejected including by the hospital itself.

  31. J S-B

    You might well be in for a series of shocks later this week.

  32. @Jim Jam

    1. Never under estimate the vanity, ego and lack of self-awareness of politicians.
    You may be right but does not mean he can see it.
    2. He may be a lieutenant for another intending to (semi-officially) launch a leadership bid on Friday.
    3. It depends who the party is on Friday. MPs nominate runners and riders. Who will be the MPs? Will the Corbyn left have their quota and will they vote as a bloc to get one candidate before the members? Will the easy come, easy go 250 000 members (at £3 a pop) stay around if they lose again? Will they go off to Greta, the greens, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid etc ?
    4. The one straw ‘moderates’ clung to was that Corbyn was older than them. If a younger Corbyn emerges, then moderates do not want another 5 years of Opposition under them. Tristan Hunt took the way out seeing where the wind was going in early 2017. Others may think we try to get the leadership and if not then we look at what six figure quango jobs are on offer.

    5. OTHER THAN THAT – Ashworth is just a novice who got caught by the oldest trick in the book just before a GE. Possible but I do not assume as a first resort that people are stupid. I eliminate other theories first.

  33. Alec
    After posting I read the G-spot live news bit.

  34. Save the crocodile tears for NI as they do extremely well out of being part of UK

    “Northern Ireland had the highest net fiscal deficit per head at £4,939”

    “Northern Ireland and Scotland incurred the highest expenditure per head, in FYE 2018, at £14,195 and £13,682 respectively”

    Who gets shafted? My region!!

    “lowest expenditure per head attributed to the East of England at £10,970 per head”

    I’m quite happy for those parts of UK that want to be in UK to be part of the transfer union but I’d be very happy to “rightsize” to E (or E+W) if/when the opportunity arises and obviously assuming NI and/or Scotland obtain the democratic mandate to Leave.UK

    NE England had a ref on regional assembly and massive % said NO. So very happy to see more state aid and “levelling up” going their way – especially if they start returning more “One Nation” conservatives.

  35. @Moosepoll

    “Corbyn can be booted out in 5 years at worse, Brexit will probably be a thorn for decades.”

    It’s completely the other way round IMHO.

    Brexit will prove a non-event and be history in 5 years’ time; whereas the negative effects of a 5-year Corbyn-McDonnell administration on the country will be felt for decades.

    I might perhaps have agreed with you to some extent had this been a Miliband-Balls led Labour coming into power.

  36. Angela Rayner has tweeted that being asked if Labour intended to nationalise sausages was the wurst question of the campaign

  37. @nickp
    J S-B
    You might well be in for a series of shocks later this week.
    Nick you may be right but here is the ONE salient fact.
    Ashworth has access to far better information than we do.
    Unless it is deliberate sabotage, then he thinks Labour will get heavily defeated. He may be wrong but he has information we cannot draw on. The data and the feedback from Labour canvassers among people they know voted for them in 2017.

  38. @PetB
    “I wonder how much of Corbyn narrowing that particular gap is because of RoC voters thinking the same as me?”

    Seriously? You sound desperate.

    And if there were so many ‘Pete-Bs’ surely there would be a question mark over the composition/bias of the selected panel?

  39. @ JJ – Thanks for local NE intel. I picked Sedgefield as a useful example as there is a small amount of difference between models and MRP – most folks see it as a “tossup” but a coin has to land on one side or the other (even if it does come to that coin!)

  40. @MartinW

    “So SNP and LibDems both seem to have shot themselves in the foot by forcing this election.”

    2017 seats:

    SNP: 35
    Lib Dem: 12
    Total (47)

    Votes for GE:

    Ayes: 438
    Noes: 20

    So please explain how the Lib Dems and/or the SNP “forced” this election? Even with Lab on board it would have been a little over 300. With Con on board, 350-ish.

  41. There were about 5% more Labour voters last time that the pollsters couldn’t find. Can’t think of any reason why they would find them this time.

  42. Mike N
    “Seriously? You sound desperate.”

    Nope. Just idle curiosity. But J S-B’s Ashworth conspiracy theory got my mind working in devious ways.

    What if Corbyn is a deep-cover sleeper for the Tories? They put him in place in the seventies ready to deploy him if Labour ever looked like becoming the natural party of government. When this started to happen under Blair, Agent Corbyn is deployed to destroy Labour forever! It all fits!

  43. Mike N / John33

    “What is Johnson’s obsession with tampons?”

    I do wonder why this ‘issue’ is thought worthy of highlighting a few days before a General Election. The 5% VAT on sanitary products works out as £5-6 per year on average per user.

  44. @ Statgeek

    “So please explain how the Lib Dems and/or the SNP “forced” this election?”

    Are you asking seriously? Don’t you remember on Sunday 27 October they announced they were putting forward a one line bill to hold a general election? Up until then all the opposition parties were united in frustrating Johnson’s call for an election.

  45. @Trev (RE: To Alec)

    “if you want to ignore my posts”

    It would be nice, but with 1 in 3 posts being yours, most being long-winded, containing bold and CAPS, it’s a little difficult. It would be far easier to pick a prediction and stick to it, rather than attempt to be UKPR’s Nostradamus, and throw out a thousand predictions, in the hope that one or two will give you some right to claim credit.

    The old, ‘Throw enough sh1t, and some will stick’ is the job of tabloids. ;)

    No doubt you’ll double down and produce an even longer-winded prediction as a response, but that’s your shtick.

  46. The private data Labour had last time also told them they were heading for a hefty defeat. Therefore, no reason to assume private data is any more accurate than public data.

  47. @James E

    I just don’t understand this at all. Yes, there is an argument that tampons should be freely available. But to propose cutting the tax is meaningless and shows yet again a misunderstanding of the issues. I suppose it’s bleeding consistent with the Tory party as taxcutters…

  48. pete b

    There’s another 200-330k Russian Sleepers signed up to the Labour party to vote for JC too. That’s a big Russian op.

  49. @ PETE B – I share you views on how best to answer the polling question on Corbyn but opinion polling doesn’t suggest your theory extends far beyond the two of us.

    “I wonder how much of Corbyn narrowing that particular gap is because of RoC voters thinking the same as me?”

    Nope. The narrowing of the gap has been LAB VI finding Corbyn less unappealing (he’s off rock-bottom – just) and Boris being seen as bit more unappealing partly from CON-Remain VI “coming back” home from LDEM perhaps?

    Anyway, the Corbyn moving up reason you can see in the x-breaks of most polling. The Boris one is a bit more complex to breakdown and fairly minor and jumpy between different dates and polling companies (ie the small trend lower in the last 2weeks is barely visible within the “noise”)

    Anyone using an adapted Singh curve or similar would be seeing CON 10% lead as about right.

    NB I’ve commented on the ‘pendulum’ model before. Anyone following that is welcome to use the excuse that this is Boris’s 1st term GE so the ‘3 GE’s and you’re out’ rule doesn’t apply (ie he reset the pendulum). Happy to provide excuses ahead of time just in case the polls, MRP and models all happen to be right for a change (and it is a bit bizarre how close they all are in homing in on the 345 number)

  50. “private data”?

    Why should it be any better than any other data?

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