The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. “I see the boy’s mother has filed an official complaint to the Press Regulator about the Daily Mirror publishing the picture.”

    Reliable source for this? Having a look around can’t find any, more desperate attempts to discredit I think?

  2. @ Colin

    I don’t claim any better constituency knowledge than you do- just the same things we both read on the internet. Probably I know a “red wall” seat better than you but I certainly don’t know any specifics about Grimsby for example.

    Your point about the hand me down the generations Labour vote is kind of valid except that generation has not changed that much in voting pattern. It is just that there has been around 50 years since there was the tradition of similar, often unionised, working class jobs following through the generations. So the demographic has been broken to become “deprived” rather than working poor.

    From coal miner/fisherman/working in a factory to unemployed/depressed and alcohol/drug problems and/or gig economy, this filters down the generations and results in an increasing disbelief that politics will change anything.

    What I’ve flagged up on here before is where the will not vote has increased. It’s all in deprived areas and again, though I know nothing about Grimsby, the point being that since 1992 the turnout figure there has fallen from 2% below national average to 11%. The biggest drop was under New Labour but only marginally recovering in 2017. it would be presumptuous of me to say that extra 10% turnout for Labour would hold the seat but in the old days that was the former demographic that would have done.

    There’s also fertile ground in these deprived areas for the same far right scapegoating we see across Europe and from areas that used to be Labour orientated. It’s certainly fertile ground for a “get Brexit done” message which offers change…. any change.

  3. Reggieside.

    I cannot comment on social media sharing since i don’t use social media but the TV Media have picked it up and i can imagine some of tomorrows headlines in the newspapers.

    Ashworth has now pulled out of a Radio % interview at the last minute. He has been one of the key spokespeople for labour in the election.

    Story clearly building

  4. @Bigfatron

    Your analysis closely reflects my own view of the country’s likely trajectory. As Shevii says there will be a big backlash against the Conservatives when it all goes bottoms up, but this will most likely lead to a British version of the AFD, rather than any acknowledgement from people that they were wrong.

  5. People thinking this Ashworth story isn’t major are deluding themselves. This is a pretty catastrophic leak and appears to be the final nail in Labour’s coffin with just 2 days to go. Shame we’ve had to wait until the last week of this election for things to get spicy.

  6. TOH

    He is live on BBC politics now.

  7. @HULAGU

    You may be right that CON broken promises will lead to a British AFD, which is a revolting prospect. But, thanks to FPTP, that will just lead to a splitting of the RoC vote and a Labour victory!

  8. ” eople thinking this Ashworth story isn’t major are deluding themselves. This is a pretty catastrophic leak and appears to be the final nail in Labour’s coffin with just 2 days to go. Shame we’ve had to wait until the last week of this election for things to get spicy.”

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  9. Out of idle interest I thought I’d look back to GE 2017 (pre and post) and see what the polls were showing then:

    C L LD Pollster Date
    42 45 6 Survation/Good Morning Britain 2017-06-17
    39 45 7 Survation/Mail on Sunday 2017-06-10
    44 36 7 Panelbase/ 2017-06-07
    43 38 7 Kantar/ 2017-06-07
    46 34 7 ICM/Guardian 2017-06-07
    42 35 10 YouGov/Times 2017-06-07
    44 34 9 ComRes/Independent 2017-06-07
    41 40 8 Survation/ 2017-06-07
    46 33 8 BMG/Herald 2017-06-07
    44 36 7 Ipsos-MORI/Evening Standard 2017-06-07
    43 36 8 Opinium/ 2017-06-06
    45 34 8 ICM/Guardian 2017-06-04
    41 40 6 Survation/Good Morning Britain 2017-06-03
    40 39 8 Survation/Mail on Sunday 2017-06-03
    45 34 9 ICM/Sun on Sunday 2017-06-02
    47 35 8 ComRes/Ind on Sun/S. Mirror 2017-06-02
    42 38 9 YouGov/Sunday Times 2017-06-02
    45 40 7 Ipsos-MORI/Evening Standard 2017-06-01
    45 36 8 ORB/Sunday Telegraph 2017-06-01
    44 36 7 Panelbase/ 2017-06-01

    You can see why the Con party might not place much trust in the polls.

    As regards the Ashley revelations…possibly no bad thing for Lab?

  10. John33

    Yes, and being roasted alive!

  11. ‘Ashley’ !? Lol
    Who!?
    Ashworth.

  12. JAMES B. Have posted some links but they’ve all gone into moderation,. Just google Willment-Barr and Press Regulator and you’ll get links from news-sites about it. Seems to be a syndicated story so it will spread further. It’s also appearing on facebook and twitter.

  13. @HUGO
    I’m interested in the term ‘champagne socialist’ as a term of abuse.

    Obviously it implies someone who is rich (enough to buy champagne) but is nevertheless a socialist, i.e. keen on more equality. Surely this is a good and moral position for a rich person to take – to sacrifice some of their own wealth for the benefit of those less fortunate?

    So, I guess, people calling others ‘champagne socialists’ are themselves well off, and are disgusted by these class tra!tors.

  14. Had I seen that white power gesture, from his hand position, I’d have assumed he was self describing as a w****r – which I suppose he was.

  15. I will back Cambridge Col’s predictions (cons around 302-306). As far as I am concerned Rich is as likely to be right (conservatives 360) but i am backing Cambridgecol as a) That’s what I would like to happen b) I like the Cambridge brand (think Cambridge Rachel, Isaac Newton, DNA etc) c) In the unlikely event I am right I will acquire a reputation almost equivalent to that of Dr Mibbles (after 2017) or TOH after 2015. in that case the wise thing to do is never to make another prediction. If, however, i have time I will try and write a post on why polls are likely to err.

  16. Andrew Williams

    I’m not sure what you are getting excited about. Huge publicity about the mother not wanting it politicised reminds people that it genuinely happened and keeps Boris’ gaffe, and the NHS, more genrally, in the media. Not much of a win here for the Tories.

  17. @MIKE N

    Agreed, people here saying these Ashworth comments are going to hurt Labour are imo slightly deluded or just wishful. If anything it will help Labour to have a key figure saying, in private, that Labour won’t win. Gives more reason for those fearful of corbyn or those Brexiteers reluctant to vote Tory, to either not vote or to stay with Labour.

    Dr Mibbles has a new, revised polling prediction, based on feedback by others on his previous one. He thinks overall the lead for Tories is about 4% but that about 3% of this is Conservatives stacking votes in safe seats, hence he thinks result will be a Labour minority government.

    Time will tell.

  18. Ashworth is, in my view, a poor speaker, and more generally comes across as a bit of a buffoon. I had been wondering recently whether I was being unfair on him or not, but I see the one silver lining of his terrible blunder as confirming my view once and for all.

    I’m not sure how far this will run, though I doubt it will be as significant as the ‘boy on the hospital floor’ story. Either way, what I find most revealing about this incident is that, given that it’s clear from the audio that this was recorded at least a week ago, its release at this particular time in the campaign is obviously a deliberate attempt to deflect attention from the hospital floor story – i.e. it’s kept in reserve until the going gets tough. I think this shows how damaging the Tories consider the hospital floor story to be. They are in trouble.

  19. SHEVII

    Thanks for you further thoughts.

    The generational change you refer to is very interesting. Sky News did a piece on Asian voting patterns in the North. A similar picture was presented-younger generation-particularly women, no longer obeying the “cultural” instruction how to vote.

  20. @Andrew Williams

    There is nothing in those stories about a complaint about JC. It’s the previous complaint about not being made a political football, re-spun to attack JC

    Including quotes from those reliable sources “social media users” LOL

  21. @ tobyebert

    You may be right that CON broken promises will lead to a British AFD, which is a revolting prospect. But, thanks to FPTP, that will just lead to a splitting of the RoC vote and a Labour victory!

    Isn’t that what everyone said about UKIP & BXP ? Current circumstances would suggest that a more likely proposition would be that in order to stay in power the Conservative party would itself become more like the British AFD

  22. JOHN33
    ” eople thinking this Ashworth story isn’t major are deluding themselves. This is a pretty catastrophic leak and appears to be the final nail in Labour’s coffin with just 2 days to go. Shame we’ve had to wait until the last week of this election for things to get spicy.”

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    Socialists tend to have selective hearing.

    Irrespective , its big , its note worthy, but depends if the media run with it. I’m expecting it to be front page news in the Guardian and Mirror tomorrow!

  23. I think 4 year old lying on floor in hospital beats MP critical of own leader in the non partisan world.

  24. ASHWORTH

    I suppose the message of this saga is: Never trust a Tory.

    Which, actually, could be LAB’s slogan for the last few days of the campaign.

  25. Fred

    If a story tells you something you thought you already knews, it’s net impact is zero!!

    Lefthanging

    To be fair to Ashworth, he is one of the more capable front benchers, but I am not sure how much of a compliment that really is.

  26. @DrBasil
    My thoughts exactly.

  27. If Dr Mibbles says minority Labour Government (which is what I said also) then that’s what we’ll get.

  28. JOHN33
    Fred

    If a story tells you something you thought you already knews, it’s net impact is zero!!

    Indeed, but many on all sides sleep through many stories, a bit of a nudge now and then is no bad thing.

  29. Greetings from a rather chilly early morning in Texas waiting for our new tractor to arrive ,yes that’s how exciting my life gets these days.

    Well just when you think Johnson has dug a rather big hole for himself up pops Mr Ashworth and obligingly hands him a ladder.

    As if Ashworth criticism of Corbyn’s leadership wasn’t damaging enough he then goes on to confirm Labours abandonment of its working class voters by referencing how middle class ‘Guardian ‘ readers are now Labours new targets which although no surprise on these pages as it’s the most often referenced paper on here. Is still rather stark to here from the horses mouth as it were.

    I wonder how all those traditional Labour hart lands in the midlands and the north will take Ashworth’s observations.

  30. Norman Smith very clear on the likely impact of the Ashworth story on BBC lunch time news just now.

    front page stuff tomorrow I think.

    LoC posters on here burying their collective heads in the sand I see.

  31. Hello from a very wet Bournemouth.
    The 1983 GE when, with a week to polling day, the General Sec of the Labour Party announced: ‘Michael Foot is the leader of the Labour Party’.

    1970. Students for Labour Victory meeting Benn compares Powell’s
    ideas to the flags over Belsen. Wilson was furious.

  32. NICKP

    Is Dr Mibble’s lopping off of the 3% Tory lead (because of Brexit only standing in certain seats) a bit crude? I haven’t seen him reference how the polling companies have adjusted for this. Seems odd that they would just add it to national headline figures.

  33. Oh dear.

    If you want to know stories like Ashworth and Boris are talked about/set up, just look at the comments on here over the past few hours.

    Labour leaning people trying to convince (themselves?) that the Boris gotcha is worse than the Ashworth gotcha.

    TOH agreeing with me then giving the Ashworth story “legs”.

    It’s all rather dispiriting.

  34. @JOHN33

    3% might be a bit crude, I would be more careful and say around 2%. But Dr Mibbles is basing it on the fact that after the Brexit Party collapsed the Conservative vote went up by about 3%, but that it didn’t change much in the constituencies that BXP is running in. Dr Mibbles also gave reasons as to why BXP is taking more votes away from Tories in Labour heartlands than Labour.

    But I would say 2% is a safer bet, but then again I’m no Dr Mibbles.

  35. Hugo

    I made quite clear this stuff does leave a nasty taste in the mouth. All I am doing is reporting the reaction as it happens.

    This election, rather like the 2016 referendum campaign has been full of lies and smear from all the parties and their media and social media supporters.

  36. “Just google Willment-Barr and Press Regulator and you’ll get links from news-sites about it”

    The only site that comes up that I might even think of stretching the definition of ‘news’ to is The Sun, which is pretty telling.

    Looks to be something that Newton Dunn has invented (or been told to invent)

  37. Johnson said he wants to abolish the BBC license fee so now the BBC are striking back at him by going pro-Corbyn.

  38. TOH

    I’m not burying my head in the sand. We have had lots of ‘ events’ in this campaign and I can’t think of one which has affected the polls. The difference with yesterday’s incident with Johnson was because it was such a terrible interview from the PM on a very emotive issue which polls high in the national interest, and picked up dramatic pace in the media. A shad cab member being secretly recorded as saying he fears for Labour’s electoral chances and doesn’t much rate Corbyn, is not news.

  39. Hospital has X beds, and needs beds for X+1 patients. So one patient doesn’t get a bed.

    Shadow Health Minister admits what everyone can see from the polls, Labour are not winning.

    The spin doctors go into overdrive, to try to make political capital out of both stories.

    I don’t think either story will make any difference to the average voter.

  40. I think it will be a Tory majority of between 15-25 .The Tories have a lot going for them , a big poll lead and the idea that they will get Brexit done . However the Labour party should have a better ground game and the weather should be miserable , which should deter oldies ( Tory Core) who have not had a postal vote voting.The fact that Labour is so low in Scotland ,should mean their vote is 1%- 2% higher in England and Wales, which could make a difference.

    However if it’s as tight as 15/25 seats the fun has only began and Brexit will still plague British politics..I am a Labour/ remainer voter who has hesitated about voting for Corbyn , but have decided I can’t vote ( would never vote Tory as I am too young at 65 ) for anyone else
    I am not sure but believe many people like me will end up voting Labour in spite of Corbyn.

  41. I’m not – given the polls movement so far – much of a believer in *any* story having much effect. The majority of voters are going to go “well, that’s bad, but Johnson/Corbyn/etc. is worse” or “the existence of hospitals is Conservative/Labour fake news” and stick with their current vote … and very few of the voters who might be swayed by it will necessarily find out about it.

    The campaign after all started, a couple of months back, with some long-standing ex-Labour MPs endorsing the Conservatives. A couple of years back, and “The Labour MPs hate Corbyn” was constantly the story, only really ended by the 2017 election result.

    On the Conservative side, it wasn’t that long ago during the campaign that Johnson was being criticised for his response to the floods, or being chased out of Northern Working Class Towns by angry voters.

    The last couple of days are really just more of the same “Corbyn’s own MPs hate him” / “Johnson doesn’t care” … maybe they’ll change some minds that haven’t already been changed, but most likely not.

  42. The UK economy has stalled (see Oct growth figures). Employers have reduced recruitment. Consumer confidence is very low.

    And perhaps the (un)popularity gap between Johnson and Corbyn has also narrowed again.

    Using TOH’s measures of leader (un)popularity and the strength of the economy might the GE outcome be closer than polls suggest? Just look back at the polls above for GE2017…t
    Might the difference this time be the tactical voting? The LD VI seems higher than in 2017.

    The Tories are going big on Corbyn being a security risk. I think the signs are that the Tories are deeply concerned about the outcome.

  43. @ Hugo

    What is really depressing is the way in which an evidence based approach to political argument has been all but abandoned: personalities dominate, innuendos sublimate and facts evaporate. We have interviewers who want their persona displayed rather than explore the factual foundation of a politicians argument, we have staged television events with the razzamatazz of gameshows rather than the gravitas of intellectual interrogation and we have the manipulation of recorded material which is then disseminated to show the opposite of what actually happened.
    I am genuinely worried as to the democratic future of this country, I feel all has been lost so that taking sides is now becoming, as BFR says, a matter of identity. Identity is difficult to put aside.
    I take one point only as illustration: John McDonnell has put forward a plan based on a particular economic theory, one that differs from the supply side theories that have dominated policy for forty years or more. In 1979 I heard numerous arguments and read very many articles as to why the supply side theory advanced by the Tories at that election was superior to the demand side Keynesianism that had dominated for a generation. Apart from insults as to the other approach and crude measures of the size of budget spending, I have seen nothing in the way of intellectual argument that treats the British public like grown ups and discusses with them the merits of the underpinning economic approach.
    G0ebbels apparently said that you only have to keep repeating a l!e until its as good as the truth to most people. The l!es grow and whichever way this election goes we should be concerned that we are losing a fundamental aspect of our democratic culture!

  44. @Trevs – OK – lets try and reach agreement.

    Yes, there is a debate to be had about how ‘strict’ States Aid rules are, and whether they would impeded Labour’s manifesto plans, or indeed, your own oft stated desire to boost UK industry.

    Let’s just leave that to one side, as it isn’t relevant here.

    You have long held than a benefit from getting out of the EU was to escape any restrictions on states aid, arguing that WTO terms allow much more flexibility in this regard.

    The point I am making, which you are evading, is that the Conservative Brexit that you now support means we don’t escape EU states aid rules. Or at least, GB can, but only if it has two entirely separate legislative programs for GB and NI, and additional border checks on goods moving from GB to NI.

    Does this sound reasonable to you? If not, why not?

  45. JOHN DUFFY

    I am the same. I voted for Cameron in 2010 who offered in my opinion a brilliant and well thought out manifesto. Regretfully none of it got delivered. I never thought I would vote for Corbyn but see it as the lesser of two evils. Corbyn can be booted out in 5 years at worse, Brexit will probably be a thorn for decades.

  46. MIKE N
    The UK economy has stalled (see Oct growth figures). Employers have reduced recruitment. Consumer confidence is very low.

    And perhaps the (un)popularity gap between Johnson and Corbyn has also narrowed again.

    Using TOH’s measures of leader (un)popularity and the strength of the economy might the GE outcome be closer than polls suggest? Just look back at the polls above for GE2017…t
    Might the difference this time be the tactical voting? The LD VI seems higher than in 2017.

    The Tories are going big on Corbyn being a security risk. I think the signs are that the Tories are deeply concerned about the outcome.

    That would be wise of them, complacency has lost many a fight.
    However how bad are things on the labour side, when a hung parliament would be considered as having conquered Everest

  47. @TOH – “Norman Smith very clear on the likely impact of the Ashworth story on BBC lunch time news just now.

    front page stuff tomorrow I think.”

    Maybe so. Let’s wait and see.

    My morning whizz through the broadcast media suggests the impact is considerably less than the Leeds hospital event, but there is time enough. It isn’t exactly new stuff, and will reinforce some opinions, but whether it sways undecideds I am less certain.

  48. Just about made it back before the weather turns nasty again. Job completed and if it gets a few young voters to the polls on Thursday, hopefully to vote Labour, I can sleep easily in my bed once more.

    Accordingly, I’ve only just seen the Ashworth story. Firstly, it would appear that he needs to choose his “friends” rather more carefully. Who the hell could ever be classified as a friend when he secretly tapes a conversation with you to use against you maliciously at a later date . Utter creep more likely, and certainly no friend. Secondly, Ashworth was obviously speaking honestly in the conversation and the defence that it was a bit of wind-up banter doesn’t appear plausible to me. I suspect he was sharing honest thoughts about how the election was going; thoughts by the way that many a Labour sympathiser has expressed on these very pages. Should a senior Labour figure have shared them with a political opponent that obviously didn’t deserve his trust? Probably not and Ashworth can be rightly accused of naivete bordering on stupidity.

    However, is a Shadow Cabinet minister sharing concerns about the campaign and the electability of his leader, confidentially too, or so he thought, on the same level as a former serving Cabinet Minister, David Gauke, resigning the Tory whip, running against his old party and publicly rubbishing the PM and a key plank of his former Government’s policy? Obviously not. One is a gaffe, the other is a major political statement about the future direction of the Conservative Party under Johnson; from a former Cabinet Minister.

    As Hugo has rightly said, we infantilise politics if we think the two are of equivalent political significance.

  49. @Fred
    “However how bad are things on the labour side, when a hung parliament would be considered as having conquered Everest”

    I presume there should be a ? at the end, like so? ;)

    I think it’s realistic based on polls to predict Lab will have fewer MPs than Con.

  50. As regards the millionaire-controlled press/media running big with the ‘Ashworth’ revelations is that it suppresses other news.

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