The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. I hear that Johnson is flagging-up pressure on the BBC, to make it not a criminal offence to not pay the licence fee.

    What a good idea, and what a spectacular own goal for the Tories. If we had a mass campaign, led by Nicola Sturgeon, for people in Scotland not to pay the licence fee, that could reduce BBC income by 10% and be more effective than our election votes in getting fair treatment of people across the whole UK.

    We had a typical example on BBC 4 last night of Home Counties bias spoiling what could have been an interesting and enjoyable documentary on the history of carol singing.

    Lucy Worsley started well, with good accurate contributions from Andrew Gant and Bennet Zon. I thought the latter interview showing how “O Come all ye faithful” was really a worship song in favour of Bonnie Prince Charlie, would be a lead-in to Stonyhurst. And would have gone on to how the Lancashire Catholics, long operating in hiding, would have been a mainspring in getting Adeste Fideles into being a widespread Christmas hymn.

    But instead she talked of Wade`s activity at Ware, and thereafter the doc veered into being a regional programme and was sadly factually inccurate. All the singing examples included came from the SE, the Chapel Royal, Surrey, Ely Cathedral (this the furthest north), and the boring-but-skilled Kingdom Choir (? London-based).

    Waltham Abbey had a key role – how typical of Home Counties folk to exaggerate their importance.

    Carol singing has flourishing, rich existence across the whole of Britain, especially in Yorkshire and the SW. But there was not a mention of this, nothing of Thomas Hardy.

    Instead Worsley talked about carol singing being finally brought into the church in the mid C19, just at the time when many churches were evicting the carol singers and their bands and driving them into residence in pubs.

    But clearly Worsley assumes the UK “church” is the Church of England and particularly its high-end body of cathedrals. I am not knocking them – I love what they do. But there was so much else Worsley could have included in her doc.

  2. Boris actually just finished what he was saying to the reporter and then wholeheartedly said sorry very quickly once he had, it’s not like he said it was fake or anything.

    I would have sympathy with him being bemused by the effect now.

    Not that those sharing clips on social media will have included that bit. . .

    It certainly won’t help him with those many undecided female voters, with the way it’s been widely reported and the poor Tory rebuttal.

  3. Prediction:

    Lab-SNP-PC-LD-G coalition 328 seats:

    Lab 269
    SNP 37
    PC 3
    LD 18
    G 1

    DUP 9
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 1
    SF 6
    Ind 1
    Spkr 1

  4. Not sure what happened there, hadn’t finished!

    Prediction:

    Lab-SNP-PC-LD-G coalition 328 seats:

    Lab 269
    SNP 37
    PC 3
    LD 18
    G 1

    DUP 9
    Alliance 2
    SDLP 1
    SF 6
    Ind 1
    Spkr 1
    Cons 302

  5. @Trev

    “In Gordon we less than 5% of SLAB and SLD (less than 600 votes) to ensure the “once in a generation” ref is respected and Scotland stays part of the Union.”

    And the mask slips…

  6. Dunno why precisely , but I have a bad feeling about the result.

  7. As part of my reminiscing yesterday on my feelings/predictions on GE results since 1964, other memories came back to me, the most significant of which were that in 2005 it was reported that many voters were saying they normally voted Labour but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Tony Blair; 2010, substitute Gordon Brown for Tony Blair; 2015, substitute Ed Miliband; 2017 & 2019, substitute Jeremy Corbyn.

    If anyone thinks any other Labour leader would have had an easier ride from our national media and that if only Labour had had a different leader, I think they are sadly mistaken.

  8. @Grumpy

    I really hope your prediction is right but I fear itll be otherwise……

  9. There may have been dislike or even despisal, but I don’t think the thought of those previous Lab leaders scared people (including traditional Lab voters) in the same way as Corbyn and McDonnell winning this election and implementing their agenda & values does.

  10. Watching Adam Boulton on Sky earlier. He’s obviously been slapped with some form of legal letter and started his show giving a dull, very formal and very grovelling apology to both Boris and the Tories.

    He had a Lib Dem on, (Tom Brake?) who categodrically stated several times that the Lib Fems will not go into Coalition with either Labour or the Tories while either Corbyn or Johnson head them.

  11. DAVWEL I hear that Johnson is flagging-up pressure on the BBC, to make it not a criminal offence to not pay the licence fee.

    What a good idea, and what a spectacular own goal for the Tories. If we had a mass campaign, led by Nicola Sturgeon, for people in Scotland not to pay the licence fee,

    The idea is is it not to make it a civil offence. The debts from Civil offences are far easier to sell-on to debt collection agencies.

  12. Fannying about has to stop very soon:-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50725715

  13. Jonathan Ashworth’s put a very large foot in it by allowing himself to be privately recorded criticising Corbyn and McDonnell. “It’s dire for Labour….it’s dire!” plus many other ripe comments.

    I’ll stick to my seats prediction, might have been too heavy for LD’s but can’t honestly remember :)

  14. @Bantams

    This was very much the same feeling in 2017 though. And BMG, their private pollster, had Labour down to get absolutely thumped. He may be right this time, but he may not.

  15. @ Andrew Williams

    That’s news to me…………….

    You have to pay a licence fee to be Scottish?

  16. @ Colin

    So do I so we cancel each other out :-)

    My personal view is that we have seen plenty of constituency polling (which as we know from the Ashcroft polls is low samples and mostly wasn’t right) and we aren’t seeing LD gains to cancel out Lab losses. We’ve seen some full Scottish where the SNP don’t appear to be on course to sweep the board and gains from Labour match gains from Tories.

    We’ve also got a lot of polling and gossip from Labour seats under pressure- Grimsby being the obvious one but lots of gossip from other places that could be described as “red wall”. Some names that have come up are probably just gossip (Barnsley, Leigh, Sedgefield etc), but it shows direction of travel for the slightly more marginal ones.

    Even the best polls for Labour show a swing to Con of at least 1.5% and I have the suspicion that within these polling figures we have Lab and LD stacking up in remain areas already in Lab/LD hands plus confusion from the remain side (as in London) as to which is the best tactical vote.

    There’s also this key crossbreak where perhaps 10% of the 2017 Labour vote is now voting Tory- in my humble position this can only be in the Labour leave areas so much more proportionately affecting those areas- you could almost double that figure on the assumption that former Labour voters in the cities would not be choosing the Tory option but moving to LD or staying Lab. Of course there is churn in the other direction but it won’t be churn in Labour leave areas.

    The straw clutching is that the polls are simply wrong, that undecideds will break for Labour, that GOTV will favour Labour, that voters in red wall seats wlll have the reverse of 1992 and not bring themselves to vote Tory in the end.

    ALL of the polls need to be wrong for there not to be a Tory majority- not just some of them.

  17. BANTAMS

    What a sting that was !!!

  18. @Daniel

    this has been my thinking for some time.
    too many factors are working in the Conservatives favour

    1. collapse of the Brexit Party
    2. collapse in the Lib Dem vote
    3. possible decimation of the Labour heartlands

    if in particular 3. happens then a majority of 60-100 is very possible

  19. This is a bit of a long post, so apologies in advance and ignore it if you feel inclined. I’m hoping a few will read it, digest it, and explain to me why I am wrong.

    I accept that there is still uncertainty about Thursday’s outcome, but I would argue that there is a high likelihood that the Tories will secure a 20-40 seat majority.

    Apart from some unsurprising crowing from the Trevs, there has been little triumphalism from our ROC contributors for which I am very grateful.

    Because, if I am honest, I am more concerned about what will flow from the outcome of this election than any other in my lifetime; here’s why:

    • British politics has move from being class or economics based to being identity based; this creates more permanent, more personal and more emotional divisions. As a result, I expect British politics to be more divisive, rancorous and ‘win-at-all costs’ on a permanent basis.

    • Identity based politics offers a far more fertile ground for populism; we lack the historical experience to understand deep down where that can lead. I don’t think the UK will resist a further trend to populism of both left and right.

    • Johnson is an archetypal populist; he has no fixed political beliefs and is happy to sway with the wind as long as he can retain power. For certain, he has no moral compass that would lead him to prevent measures that are designed to entrench power at the expense of open democracy.

    • The Tories are funded by globalist, pro-Brexiteers with very deep pockets; Johnson knows – simply put – that his job is to allow these guys to carry on making money. He will not disappoint.

    • The press is now 80% owned by right-wing globalist billionaires, the majority of whom are not UK domiciled; they have no particular interest in the welfare or success of the UK and its citizens except insofar as it provides a base for a successful global business. Their objective remains a low tax, low regulation, low safety-net economy

    • The news media is now sufficiently cowed that to propagate anything other than the government line is difficult to sustain; that’s not to say individual journalists, and even the odd paper or radio station will not do their best, but the mass of the media will be subservient. If C4 lose their licence, only a few establishment luvvies will kick up a fuss, and there will be one less critic of government.

    • Voter suppression measures are being openly proposed, representation through boundary changes will be amended to become more supportive to the Tories, and the constitution will be amended to make it harder for the judiciary to prevent executive over-reach. Bluntly, our rights as citizens will be diminished, cheered on by Brexiteers as ‘enabling the will of the people’.

    • Brexit will be a sh1t-show; there is absolutely no chance of anything other than the most EU-friendly deal by 31st December 2020, as there is too little time to negotiate the more complex elements of a trade deal. Everyone who has any expertise in this area agrees on this. As a result, we will either take what we can get from the EU, or the ERG will throw a fit and we leave on WTO terms. In either event our trade deficit will worsen, our exports reduce, and inward investment will plummet; jobs will be lost and the cost of living increase. We will see stagnant growth in 2020 and recession in 2021.

    • In that context, I expect the spending taps to be turned on, with tax cuts, more into the NHS, etc for a couple of years. All of the recent deficit reductions will be reversed, and more.

    • Our economic failure will lead to a rushed and weak trade deal with the US, now under a Democrat administration that has no love for Johnson and his pro-Trump team; they will be perfectly happy to play hardball in negotiations over agri-products and drugs, just as Trump would have. Likewise, other countries (Australia, India, China, Japan) will know that we are in a weak negotiating position and will push for excessive benefits on trade, immigration rights and political support.

    • The lack of perceivable benefits from Brexit will lead to a need for scapegoats; the supporters of Brexit need someone to blame for its failure… whether it will be immigrants, the ‘feckless poor’, LGBT, ‘liberal elite’, the EU’s intransigence in not giving us a favourable deal, all of the above or someone new I have no idea – but a scapegoat will be needed, and it won’t be pretty.

    • Those who voted Tory and Brexit will double down; to do otherwise would challenge their sense of self and identity, which none of us can do at all easily. This is not meant as a criticism – it is a natural human reaction that IMHO we all do.

    • By 2024 we have become a country where news of dubious validity is fed to the voters by a supine media, reinforcing cultural stereotypes and a national sense of identity and victimhood, and blaming failure on malign forces both inside and out; where the electoral system is heavily weighted in favour of the ruling party and many voters see nothing wrong in that. Where money buys influence and power even more overtly than today, and where the checks and balances in our constitution have been systematically weakened. A country that is not isolated on the word stage only because it is cosying up to countries with similar leaderships – in Poland, Brazil, Hungary, China or even Russia. After all, we will have walked away from all the rest…

    • I see open – if passive – rebellion in a Scotland desperate to split away but prevented from doing so by the central government (think Catalonia 2), a deteriorating security situation in Northern Ireland, increasing levels of poverty and inequality throughout country.

    • And I see a population angry, confused and frustrated as the Tories romp home to a 50+ seat majority in 2024 with 35% of the national vote…

  20. SHEVII

    Thanks for those thoughts.

    You have a massive advantage over me-I have no insight, and very little interest in the minutae of polling at constituency level.

    My interest is the broad demographic movements , and policy difference.

    I just wonder whether folk whose Labour voting history has been handed down to them through family -almost a cultural expression -will actually vote for the Tories when in the voting booth with pencil in hand. And I fear that Johnson’s flat footed response to the Boy in A&E might be the tiny pin prick of guilt for folk in the so called Red Wall.

    But my thoughts are not informed by anything in the way of data-just a foreboding.

  21. @ Colin

    “””
    Dunno why precisely , but I have a bad feeling about the result.
    “””

    Perhaps because, like me, there is no plausible result which you would actually want, given a free choice to determine the outcome.

  22. @Trevor

    Yes. I think in practice the contradictory (and sometimes plain wrong) recommendations on tactical voting will be counteracted by hardly anyone actually paying attention to any specific site, and just going with whoever they think the top two are based on local campaigning – as usual.

    @Norbold

    Certainly there are a lot of people who seem to like the idea of Labour but not the practice of it. On the other hand, Corbyn’s approval ratings are far lower than historic Labour leader approval, even adjusting for everyone’s approval ratings turning more negative lately.

  23. Guido Fawkes has released a recording of Ashworth talking about the election to a Conservative friend which is unfortunate to say the least, particularly the reference to Corbyn and security which is about halfway through the recording. Gaining traction on BBC and is now their lead on Election page.

    Ashworth trying to laugh it off as banter but it sounds like a serious friend to friend conversation to me.

  24. @Bigfatron

    Salient points, but Labour formented this situation by obstruction and foot dragging over Brexit.

    As I keep repeating, not facilitating the May deal 12 months ago was a catastrophic error of judgement for Labour . Don’t expect any contrition from the Islington set.

  25. Ashworth recording astonishing. And huge ammunition for the Tories.

  26. @BFR

    Totally agreed on all counts. Especially the “identity politics” side. I’m very, very scared.

  27. @ ALEC – ?!?!

    p19 this thread. December 9th, 2019 at 8:14 pm, you stated:

    “The @Trevs have still to respond to the point that the deal brings UK wide industrial aid into the remit of EU States Aid law , putting to bed his idea of targeted support for UK industry post Brexit
    They may have read the WA, but they haven’t understood it”

    I then responded.

    Perhaps you don’t understand the meaning of the word “strict”?!?

    If the EU State Aid law is not ‘strict’ then what word do you want to use?

    Flexible?

    I fully accept that it is not enough to allow McDonnell’s plans but certainly enough to adopt a more ord0liberal approach in UK, with a some “targeted support for UK industry post Brexit” (your phrase!!)

    If you want to contradict yourself (again) then be my guest. It’s pretty boring but you seem totally unable to read or understand your own posts, let alone mine!

    I doubt you remember but YOU even posted this link before:
    https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/scoreboard/index_en.html

    Clearly lots of room for increased state aid in the strict/flexible (you pick) CURRENT rules and as you pointed out earlier GB would have more flexibility (less strictness) with Boris’s WAB.

  28. BFR

    Goodness that was a catalogue of concern. Isn’t it interesting how different our fears are on UKPR?

    If I may , just a brief response to what I think IS a central point of common ground :-
    @” Identity based politics offers a far more fertile ground for populism;”

    I agree with this. By definition then , the antidote is Outcome based politics for all voters . An outcome which all can consider fair & reasonable.

    So for me, Corbyn & McDonnell, who will construct a society based on Class division & State prescription of permissable income & wealth thresholds, will bring about the populism you fear. I don’t buy their definition of Many & Few. There will be a lot more of the latter & a lot less of the former. As Ed Miliband found with his “squeezed middle” , this sort of identity politics -singling out the Bad & the Good in Society is fraught with danger. I think the results will be catastrophic.

    So what about Johnson. ? I think he has it in him-emotionally if you like-to promote a One Nation Agenda. Many won’t like it of course because it will retain the space for differing life outcomes.. If , for you, NO inequality is ever justified, Johnson will never be acceptable-or any Conservative who believes in Equality of Opportunity..

    My fear is that he hasn’t got the grasp of detail-the feel for personal experience of others, which is necessary to construct a really One Nation policy platform. He wants to be liked-and so I suspect there will be too much reactive rather than proactive policy. And I fear he doesn’t have the patience-the dogged focus-to do this job effectively. Perhaps the best I can hope for is that some personal peccadillo causes him to resign & he is replaced by someone who can be the sort of PM I would like.

  29. JonesinBangor

    Spot on re Labour and Brexit. I said this on here yesterday.

    Corbyn has been done up like a kipper by Starmer and the other champagne socialists……and the old labour supporting working classes will send them a clear message on Thursday.
    That’s the feeling I have got from the stump these past few weeks.

  30. Trevor WARNE: Say NO to Indy. SLAB and SLD need to pinch their noses in those seats and back SCON. In Gordon we less than 5% of SLAB and SLD (less than 600 votes) to ensure the “once in a generation” ref is respected and Scotland stays part of the Union.

    Once in a generation? 2014 was a lifetime ago.

  31. BFR

    That’s the best and most convincing summary of the situation that I’ve ever read on this forum. Thank you for writing it. We have serious cause to worry as you articulate.

  32. Maybe the problem should be why would a so called friend record a private conversation.

    The polls were wrong in 2015 by being weighted to heavy to Labour. They were wrong in 2017 by being weighted to heavy to Conservative. My gut feeling is they will be wrong in 2019 by not correctly applying new turn out and being unable to call last minute tactical voting switches.

    What if the Brexit Party allow Labour to sneak through the middle in the red wall seats?

    What if the South swings to a remain position in the marginal created during the 2017 election by a similar swing.

    I am honestly thinking this election feels like 1992. Could we see a reverse of that one.

  33. Am I wondering foolishly if the problems of the Irish checking on exports, goods, livestock, at the Border or in the Irish Sea, may cause the RoI to veto the Withdrawal Agreement, so the UK doesn`t actually leave on Jan 31st?

    Have they the power to do that on the grounds that Boris Johnson has reinterpreted what he agreed on new customs checks, etc, as there being absolutely no impediments to movements and trade between the UK and RoI.

  34. This Ashworth recording leaves a nasty taste in the mouth, as did the Boris mobile phone NHS thing yesterday.

    This isn’t journalism, it’s the “Gotcha” mentality which seems to infect the trade these days.

    Piers Morgan, Andrews Neil and Marr, Emma Barnett….all seem to want the viewer to think they are really clever as they trip up their interviewee…..and we learn nothing.

    Pretty infantile if you ask me…..but then, we live in an infantile world at the moment.

  35. @ BFR

    Very good post. It is of course possible that brexit is a disaster, doesn’t meet expectations of those voters who thought it would solve their problems and the country votes in a Labour government in 2024 but you are spot on with your analysis I think.

    There will be an almighty backlash if Johnson fails to deliver and living standards worsen but it doesn’t mean that the recipients of this will be centrist/left of centre parties. It’s just as likely to be far right and a splintered electorate all with their own ideas of where it went wrong and scapegoats will be high up this list as well as further disdain for politics in general.

  36. SHEVII BFR
    The thing is that the UK economy has done so poorly since 2010 in terms of productivity, and Brexit comes along and economists are agreed that extra frictions serve to damage productivity in the long run further. The assault on the state and its institutions via austerity since 2010 was strongly politically motivated. And the effect of austerity was then to cause Brexit, and this in turn leads to further deregulation and an onward move away from the kind of mixed economy that protects the people at the bottom. Brexit is very damaging to the economy as all reputable economists will tell you, and in particular this is so in the long term and in terms of the effects on manufacturing and on investment. In short the deterioration in terms of democratic and media values that BFR focuses on is mirrored by widening inequality, reduced investment, deregulation, and reduced productivity on the economic side as we move away from the European economic model.

  37. On the theme introduced by BFR of fear:

    My biggest fear is that my prediction above is too cautious for Lab and they end up a majority rather than coalition (though both petrify me).

    We are so used to consensus on who our allies / enemies are; at least the basics in economics / some kind of fiscal responsibility; on taking personal responsibility; on encouraging entreneurship; generating healthy amounts of revenue to fund a wide range of public services and keep the military strong(ish); etc etc

    that many voters are complacent, and don’t really believe that the kind of policies a Corbyn-McDonnell-Lewis-Burgon government would introduce, would ever really happen – if they are aware of the policies at all (many of which have had little or no scrutiny).

    I don’t think there has ever been a UK government remotely like what we would get from ‘Corbyn unfettered’, some may see this as positive even, and I’m not meaning to be contentious or OTT on here when I admit I genuinely am scared witless by what I believe actually would be a Marxist/communist government.

    I’m not sure that the junior coalition partners would do any more than slow down the implementation – much of which would be done by younger Lab members coming through the ranks as Corbyn is surely approaching his twilight.

  38. This is a very good tweet by the editor of the Yorkshire Post (via Sam Coates at Sky News) setting out the accuracy of their story and the fake news conspiracy theories.

    Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) Tweeted:
    This is how the editor of the Yorkshire Post @JayMitchinson is responding the the viral, incorrect claims on Facebook and Twitter.

    Worth a read: https://t.co/EPOpt3rpRt https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1204362470489567232?s=20

  39. bigfatron – December 10th, 2019 at 11:07 am

    A fair analysis and well put.

    [email protected]:
    “””
    Dunno why precisely , but I have a bad feeling about the result.
    “””

    Perhaps because, like me, there is no plausible result which you would actually want, given a free choice to determine the outcome.

    Scotland and to some extent NI, I can say what I would want, ut for the rest, no idea.

  40. @ BFR – I’m not crowing, I’m very concerned about “complacent CONs” and highlighting the need for Unite2Leave tactical voting.

    I’m not going to do an arrogant ALEC and say you are wrong but some +ve and alternative opinion on your points:

    1/ Identity politics. King’s College London (and others) back that up with polling. The divisions caused by the EURef and the failure to implement it have grown in the last 3.5yrs. Once we’ve left (31Jan’20) then Brexit is DONE. At that point the “identity” of Leave v Remain will disappear. Some die-hards can start the democratic campaign to Rejoin but LAB have crushed LDEM so Rejoin will be starting from a very low point.

    We’ll probably go back to the “old” divide and on that regard Boris+Javid are ending austerity and look to the LOTO for the party that is trying to create a “class war”

    2/ Corbyn is a populist. Read the LAB manifesto and then check the “advent calendar” of populists policies (eg the 58bn unfunded promise WASPEs). I don’t think appealing to the voters is anything new, although I fully accept LDEM don’t seem to get that and I fully accept we have some very important long-term issues that are being ignored by the two main parties. Fully accept that:

    No one can accuse Swinson of being a populist

    3/ “All of the recent deficit reductions will be reversed, and more”

    I’ll put that one down to partisan bias. Do you honestly think we’ll go back to 10.2%+ (2010) deficits??

    If you meant debt reduction then happy to accept it will stall for a few years. 90% is the new 60% IMO and I’d much rather Javid breaks that fairly weak promise by a tiny 0.1% or two than we continue austerity and/or “go after” those that pay the most tax. I fully accept we will need to raise taxes at some point (1% on VAT would be my “goto” but I respect that is politically “unwise” given the Marxist threat)

    4/ “The lack of perceivable benefits from Brexit will lead to a need for scapegoats’

    As a member of the EU we repeatedly made them the scapegoat (shamefully with regards to immigration, etc). Once we’ve left the EU the buck stops at #10.

    I fully accept that EC-EU27 will try to get themselves a very one-sided “future relationship” which will make them a bit of a scapegoat next year perhaps (or a bit longer if we trigger A132 of the WA) but by GE’24 then absolutely zero way any future UK PM can blame EU for stuff that is now fully under UK control

    NB There will be lots of “perceivable” benefits from leaving EU – I’ll again suggest reading Gerard Lyons book. It’s not for me to explain to a Remainer (vegan) the great taste of Brexit (steak) and the subtle variance in what eventual opportunities we will grasp (ie the cut and cooking of the steak)

    5/ GE’19 is still “all to play for”. GE’24 is 4.5yrs away. With Long Bailey in charge of LAB and IF Boris c0cks it up (either by not delivering a Clean Brexit + oppos of Brexit and/or by not ending austerity then we kick him and CON HMG out. That is how democracy works.

    If we no longer want out elected representatives to represent us we kick them out at the next GE

    That gives them a very strong incentive to DELIVER for the British people. If they don’t then bye-bye and see if the other party can do any better.

  41. Re: Ashworth

    So Jon Ashworth told a friend Lab in a private conversation that Lab would lose the election. Is there anyone who expects them to win? The issue is whether Boris gets an OM, or enough seats without an OM to effectively govern.

    Re: Boris

    A bit different. He was confronted with a story that was a front page headline he no doubt already knew about and tried to ignore it because it was potentially damaging. His team then fabricated a story of alleged assault on a Tory advisor to deflect attention from the story, and today some Tory supporting journalist are spreading fake conspiracy theories about the hospital story to nix it.

  42. GRUMPY

    @”I don’t think there has ever been a UK government remotely like what we would get from ‘Corbyn unfettered’, ”

    I agree absolutely.

  43. The Ashworth Story now lead on Politics Home web page. Looks likely to run for some time.

    As it happens i agree with Hugo when he says that this, and that Boris interview leave a nasty taste in the mouth.

  44. RAF

    Nice try, but you ignored the bit about security. Ashworth implies he doesn’t trust Corbyn on security.

  45. i dont think the ashworth story will any impact at all outside the bubble. “corbyn and brexit are going to lose labour the election” is pretty much the consensus view everywhere in politics land. its embarrassing – but it wont cut through.

    the boy left on the hospital floor is one of the few stories that has cut through. Its is probably the biggest single story of the election and is being widely shared. Hence the massive and coordinated attempt to discredit it.

    I doubt anyone outside of tory activists will be sharing the ashworth story.

  46. I see the boy’s mother has filed an official complaint to the Press Regulator about the Daily Mirror publishing the picture.

  47. I feel sorry for John Ashworth. Fortunately, I have never been betrayed by a friend but that must hurt for him. I think many MP’s are friends across the benches and beyond parliament, and I can only assume that they speak bluntly on the phone and via messaging. This event may fracture trusts in these relationships going forward, which is a shame.
    Anyway, I have listened to the tape: honest, frank and nothing I wouldn’y have expected to hear. Personally, I can’t see where the damage will come from but it might shift the topic off the NHS issue, which is an achievement in itself.

  48. @BFR SHEVII PROFHOWARD

    Yes, I agree with most of your analysis of the consequences of a CON victory but think you are being unduly pessimistic.

    Looking at the long term, most reforming LAB governments, i.e. Atlee, Wilson, Blair have come to power after a long period of CON rule. In each case a logjam of necessary, progressive reforms was finally breached and the country was brought once again into the modern European mainstream. If this doesn’t happen on Thursday, it will most likely happen in five years time.

    BTW, in the case of Scotland, a ‘Catalonia 2’ would surely be a good thing: an independence-minded part of the UK insisting on it’s right to determine its own future. What’s not to like? I, a proud but democratic Englishman, will be joining them on the march.

  49. @EOR

    I said I would post my predictions closer to the vote and here they are:

    Conservative 349
    Labour 216
    SNP 41
    Liberal 19
    Pl Cymru 4
    Green 1
    Independent 1
    Speaker 1

    DUP 9
    Sinn Fein 7
    SDLP 2

  50. Shevii ” ALL of the polls need to be wrong for there not to be a Tory majority- not just some of them.”

    Assuming that is true, then it is obvious who the probable winner is.

    I think it is also right that for this to be overturned, all or almost of all the unknowns often rehearsed on here have to turn out against the Conservatives. Again possible but unlikely, or if you prefer unlikely but not impossible.

    I think it is difficult for Labour as if they wish to squeeze LD VI, then if swing is fairly uniform then this will probably have the result that the Cons beat LDs in south-west England – increasing the number of winnable seats needed elsewhere by Labour.

    I still think a last-minute swing against Johnson is possible in a situation where many voters are unenthusiastic about the two largest parties. Have no idea whether this would be enough.

    About the long-term I am a little more optimistic. If I recall correctly, I think it was after the last Scottish referendum that the voters – perhaps in a wish to protect themselves from the possible consequences of what they had decided – balanced things out by turning to the SNP in numbers.

    I am not an expert in Scottish politics, so forgive me if I have totally misunderstood. It is meant to be an illustration of my point that if we did have a Cons government with a clear majority this might well stimulate challenge and growth in the progressive parties. All imo.

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