The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. The biggest problem for Labor in this election is that its new referendum stance has mean Corbyn can’t fully attack the Tory’s “Get Brexit Done” for the total lie that it is. Then the Tories would have screamed “Remainer”, “Remainer”. It’s all a hoax. Labor was forced to pick its poison and I think it chose the right one. But there were downsides.

  2. Change in Tory lead tonight:
    Deltapoll -2 points
    Opinium 0 points
    Comres #1: -4 points
    Comres #2: -2 points
    Yougov: 1 point

    Average change of lead across polls : -7/4 = -1.75 points.

  3. Correction
    Average change of lead across polls : -7/5 = -1.4 points.

  4. The Tories are actually better placed in the polls than was the case for the final weekend of the 1987 election when Thatcher went on to win a majority of 102 with a lead of 11.8%.
    I suspect it is time to book my Dignitas appointment now!

  5. The scansion’s turned into a curse
    And the rhyming is barely in verse
    And if Johnson’s elected
    As is largely expected
    Then it just couldn’t get any worse

  6. @MP,

    Not over ‘till the fat lady sings…..but she’s certainly warming up!

  7. Our Danny still thinks it’s a plot
    While Trevor Warne rambles a lot
    TOH tends his veg
    And CB’s a leg [with soft c!]
    As for BRXT – pure rot!

  8. Sorry to break into the limericks to ask about polling, but does anyone know who are the undecideds and whether they are more Labour 2017 or Con 2017. I have a feeling, if they are Labour, they will generally come back to Lab as Boris hasn’t really given them much reason to shift. So if the undecideds are (by 2017 vote) 60% Lab, 30% Con, I’d expect them to break in the same way. If the undecideds are (by 2017) pretty evenly mixed they could go either way.

    Any ACTUAL stats on this?

  9. ProfHoward, think you missed panel base from your calculations

  10. With the exception of that odd Remain United poll, the changes in all other polls are within the MoE and may be simply statistical noise due to sampling error . Furthermore , polls seem to have converged to an approximately average 10-point lead for the Tories over Labour, which is consistent with a 20-30 seat majority even allowing for tactical voting.

  11. Deja vu from last Saturday: an apparent surge for Labour on the first poll but flatline the rest of the evening. BMG might yet break the sequence.

  12. Does anyone know if there’s going to be a Survey Monkey poll this year?? They got it pretty damn close last time AND the time before that (and there are not many who can say that!).

  13. I would expect a 10% Tory lead to produce a Tory majority of at least 40.

  14. There are some puzzling features of the Savanta poll. With the exception of the political parties the differences between the weighted and unweighted figures is relatively small. For example the number of females in the unweighted sample is 1029 and in the weighted one 1041, the number of those voting remain in 2016 is 842 as against 832 and so on. This makes it look that by accident rather than design the original sample was reasonably representative.

    The exception is the number of those recalling that they voted conservative. These numbered 619 as against 723. The comparable figures for Labour were 666 and 688. The presumed under-representation of past conservative voters probably had a marked effect on the weighted conservative VI vis-a-vis Labour. In the unweighted sample 65 more people said that they were going to vote Conservative than that they would vote Labour (632 v 567). The difference in the weighted sample was nearly twice as large (123 or 684 v 561).

    it seems to me that there are various inter-related sources of error here. First, there may be a tendency for people to remember (or at least report) that their current voting intention is the same as the way they voted last time. If so, weighting by past recall will underestimate the effect of any real changes in voting preference. (I believe that YouGov think that this is true of Labour switchers only but that could reflect the time at which they did their study).

    Second, the people in the sample who provide the weights may not be typical of those they are supposed to represent (e.g. conservatives as a whole may be more prone to change allegiance than those conservatives used to weight the results).

    Third, this ‘atypicality’ may be enhanced by the features of polling. Thus committed conservatives may be more likely to participate in polling, or the fact of having to record their voting intention from time to time may enhance their commitment, or the committed ones may be more likely to respond to requests to take part so that the same stage army of committed conservatives (or for that matter committed Labour or Lib /Dem supporters) may be called on over and over again.

    None of this speculation is of course certain. Recall may have been accurate, the weighting appropriate, the sub-samples typical of those they represent, and their likelihood of taking part uninfluenced by factors likely to affect the result. There is, however, uncertainty, the which combined with the potential of tactical voting should mean that those seeking a hung parliament need not entirely give up hope.

  15. PROFHOWARD
    I think maybe the change to your ‘comres1’ is being misreported as 4 when it should be 1
    It is the poll using the ‘old’ methodology and the previous old methodology poll had a lead of 7, not 10.
    Am I wrong?

  16. David Colby – yes you’re right I think.

  17. Not a real limerick I know, but I like the rhymes…

    A woman called Nicola Sturgeon
    Not formally trained as a surgeon
    Expects to perform Scotlandectomy
    She seems like another Wee Eck to me

  18. This site is obsessed with elections
    But the polls meet with many objections
    They go up they go down
    They dont change and we frown
    Those damned pollsters confound our affections

  19. Datapraxis MRP currently forcasts Con majority of 38
    Con 344 (+27)
    Lab 221 (-41)
    LD 14 (+2)
    SNP 47 (+12)
    PC 4 (-)
    Green 1 (-)

    Tim Shipman Twitter Account

  20. The Tory lot have better incomes
    The Labour lot want different outcomes
    But when samples don’t move,
    All that’s left is to prove
    If the polls are outliers or polldrums.

  21. @CB11

    I took up your Putney challenge:

    Asked an elderly lady from Ham,
    ‘What’s the difference between chutney and jam?’
    Said a young man from Putney
    ‘Ever been in a traffic chutney?
    That will be the difference, ma’am’

  22. If strict adherence to scansion and rhyme is to be ignored here, I’ll revert to the glorious tradition of Dundonian poesy.

    I’ve started work on my “Lament for the Fallen of 2019”

    Sad Slab remnants who were dominant in your day.
    Alas! I am very sorry to say
    That all your MPs have been taken away
    Except Mr Ian Murr-ay
    Who is just a Tory, as everyone does say

    Swinson! You dreamt you’d be a new Boadicea,
    And Liz would curtsy to you, if you deigned to see her,
    Sadly, you made no progress at all,
    And are now brought down, while attempting to stand tall.
    The voters rejected all your bar charts,
    And upset lots of Tory-lite apple carts.

  23. A Boris did premiership stake,
    On a deal he claimed he did bake.
    He gained a good win
    With claims of one nation and gin
    But his deal did prove to be fake

  24. To Momentum Corbyn’s the Messiah,
    They thought he’d got off to a flyer,
    Despite Bangings and Drummings,
    The’re no Second Cummings,
    ‘Cos Boris’s one push him higher.

  25. To Momentum Corbyn’s the Messiah,
    They thought he’d got off to a flyer,
    Despite Bangings and Drummings,
    The’re no Second Cummings,
    ‘Cos Boris’s one pushed him higher.

  26. @Matt126

    “Datapraxis MRP currently forcasts Con majority of 38
    Con 344 (+27)
    Lab 221 (-41)
    LD 14 (+2)
    SNP 47 (+12)
    PC 4 (-)
    Green 1 (-)”

    I wouldn’t bet against that outcome, if I’m honest. It feels about right, not just on the basis of these last few polls, but on what I’m sensing on the ground.

    I don’t think it’s really moving much now and while Labour’s modest improvement over the campaign will probably prevent a rout, I think we’re looking at a comfortable Tory victory now. As much as we can continue to doubt the accuracy of the polls, and there’s still some cause for scepticism, I think this was the weekend when we needed to see significant shifts, at least in some of them, to believe the game was still on and 2017 would repeat itself.

    Not time quite yet to decommission the troops and pack away the fighting gear, but I sense a losing battle and impending defeat.

    I wish I could be more optimistic, but as other old Labour warhorses like me have already said tonight, this feels like a Tory torrent coming down the valley. I hear the gathering rumble of onrushing water.

    If I was younger, and quicker moving, I’d take to the hills. Alas, I can no longer, and instead I will seek shelter where I can and cling to boulders on the lower, inundated ground.

    Hopefully to emerge from the wreckage and live to fight again.

  27. Depressed but here’s mine in anticipation of a Friday 53-47 remain party split but a Tory majority:

    The country did vote to remain,
    But sadly it did it in vain,
    Because leavers united,
    With Brexit lies cited,
    And Tories won the election again.

  28. CB11 thanks for your updates through the election, which I have enjoyed reading, and all the best in those rocky foothills for the next five years. I feel the same way.

  29. OldNat,

    Enjoyed your hat-tip to McGonagall :-)

  30. I’m going to stick my neck out here. Against all the polls and the fantastic feedback from UKPR crowd, who are are fighting the good fight on the door step, I think we are going to see a hung parliament. Don’t ask me for evidence because I can’t provide it. My gut instinct is crude, and probably isn’t woth mentioning on here, yet it rarely betrays me. We’ll find out soon enough though.

  31. I am not going to stick my neck or anything else out.

    I have no idea what the result will be on Thursday night / Friday morning. I have taken Friday off, and will be ordering in the snacks ready to enjoy the spectacle.

    It’s always better if you don’t know the ending.

  32. On UKPR they clutched straws
    Hoping each new poll would give cause
    But as polling day drew near
    It became extremely clear
    That the Tories had won – up yours!

  33. Neil A
    I’ve already placed my Asda order for Thursday! I’ve ordered champagne, just in case! Probably a jinx but hey ho!

  34. John33

    My gut instinct has been wrong for the last three elections, and is telling me now a Tory majority of 30 or so. So there’s hope!

  35. David Carrod

    It’s not like you to indulge in obnoxious hubris. Are you feeling ok?

  36. @John33, I hope you’re right but I don’t share your optimism….because:

    There was an old comrade named Jeremy,
    Who’s knowledge of Marx was exemplary,
    He believed the Red Star,
    Would carry him far,
    But his defeat was the worst this century.

  37. I’m amending my projection for Scotland a little.

    SNP – 46
    SCon – 7
    SLD – 4
    SLab -1
    Independent – 1

  38. Corbyn’s facial hair has me worried. Who was the last PM to have a beard?

  39. @Freddo

    “Corbyn’s facial hair has me worried. Who was the last PM to have a beard?”

    Margaret Thatcher?

  40. @Crossbat11
    @ProfHoward
    If indeed you are right that the Conservatives have gained seats and Labour lost them, then why is it so?
    Policies? Presentation? Campaign? Defectors? Leaders?
    Was it mostly Corbyn? Was it Boris’ ‘Good Deal?’
    Was Boris irrelevant? Would Javid have been at least as successful against Corbyn?

  41. @PatrickBrian

    “My gut instinct has been wrong for the last three elections, and is telling me now a Tory majority of 30 or so. So there’s hope!”

    Ditto, on all counts.

  42. @freddo: ‘Who was the last PM to have a beard?’

    I’ve had a flick through the portraits in Harold Wilson’s _A Prime Minister on Prime Ministers_, and it looks like it’s Disraeli.

  43. I’ll donate £100 to charity if you stop these bloody limericks!!

  44. The opinion polls are all over the place
    So who is going to win the big race
    Will it be Jezza or Jo
    Boris or Nicola………noooooooo!
    OldNat would be laughing all over his face!

  45. Interesting polls.

    I still think the Tories will achieve a 1983 level of support away from their “usual” strongholds. Reason: Brexit. 42.4% back them gave them a landslide.

    A night of surprises awaits on Thursday. Intriguing.

    Corbyn has become a liability for Labour.

  46. @John33 – just for you…

    There was man named John,

    Did rhymes he like none,

    But at least he was kind,

    So he didn’t terribly mind,

    When his money to good causes was gone.

  47. We have Trevs who we think are just bots
    And another Howard who likes to dig plots
    The Prof he does talk with good sense
    Jones in wales interjects with nonsense
    And Oldnat likes to talk up the Scots.

  48. Freddo
    Lord Salisbury

  49. Voice of reason

    Consider my ‘ GOGW’ scrapped! Momentum Youth will be devestated!

  50. Turncoat

    He knows close to nothing about Marx, and he certainly doesn’t believe in the workers of the world unite. He constantly talks about how bad foreigners are… The LP ad on rail nationalisation (about 20 words) contains the word foreign twice in a negative connotation (and condemns DB, a publicly owned company because it is foreign,). I guess if it was a Scottish company, he would put the troops on high alert for an imminent invasion and attack on Scotland.

    ——–

    Anyway, the polls are surprisingly different in the details. Apart from one poll it seems that it will be down to turnout – if the turnout is in the range of 65-68%, the Tories will have a majority. Anything higher than 68%, if the detailed data are representative, it is likely to be a hung parliament. It is not clutching the straws (I would like to see Corbyn go), it is just playing on the distribution published by the polling companies.

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