The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.

The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.

The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.

The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.

Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.

UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.

UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.

Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.

Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.


2,060 Responses to “Sunday polls – as they are published”

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  1. Going to be a draw.

  2. The polls are all over the place. One poll shows the Tory lead cut to six points whilst Opinium are still recording a Con lead of 15 points.
    How can the pollsters be so far apart? Once predicting a Con landslide. The other a very small majority.

  3. @Nickp – “Going to be a draw.”

    Thinking about it, a raffle would be a far cheaper way to settle this.

  4. If Opinium are right, I’ll pass a stool, put it in a hot dog roll and eat it via live stream.

  5. Deltapoll constituency polls taken from Britainelects twitter, fieldwork over the last week or so.

    Putney, constituency voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    CON: 35% (-6)
    LDEM: 24% (+12)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    Looks like Labour closing the gap in the article i linked could be real.

    Southport, constituency voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+4)
    LAB: 35% (+2)
    LDEM: 22% (-4)

    Three-way marginal, chance of a late squeeze?

    Guildford, constituency voting intention:

    LDEM: 41% (+17)
    CON: 40% (-15)
    LAB: 11% (-8)
    IND: (A. Milton): 7% (+7)

    Lib dems coming from a long way behind

  6. Obvious error in the Putney poll

    Putney, constituency voting intention:

    CON: 38% (-6)
    LAB: 35% (-6)
    LDEM: 24% (+12)
    GRN: 2% (-)

  7. Who is leading in Putney ?

  8. @John33

    “If Opinium are right, I’ll pass a stool, put it in a hot dog roll and eat it via live stream.”

    Paddy Ashdown would only have offered to eat his hat.

  9. With apologies to the SNP crowd

    There was a young lady called Sturgeon
    Says “the Scots, free of UK, will burgeon”
    “But Brexit’s a No”
    rUK says “How so?”
    “On the ridiculous, now you are vergin’”

  10. Hooded Man

    The apology should be to the limerick structure!

    Syllable allocation per line must be 9-9-6-6-9.

  11. Old Nat @7.44

    In the interests of some freedom of expression, shall we agree that UKPR limericks should ideally rhyme and scan but with some flexibility on the line by line syllable allocation?

  12. There is an old poster called Oldnat
    Who on this site is full of great chat.
    But his Scots polity
    Is still in the UK
    Despite his best efforts to change that!

  13. I’d agree with turncoat – I think there should be allowed some flexibility on syllables. I looked it up and I think some authorities allow that.

  14. Avengers Assemble!

    TV looking likely to happen in enough seats to make a difference. And MIGHT deliver Labour as the largest party.

    Trevors, I don’t smoke anything, having been a rehabilitation worker in my early career, it fair put me off the wacky bacci.
    Like I said, Creme de Menthe, by the pint, or two if you’re CB11. ( Some of the more elderly posters should recognise the ref to a Billy Connolly joke…)

  15. Opinium hasn’t just been an outlier it has also behaved very oddly. The week ALL the polls showed a significant narrowing to Lab, they were the only ones that showed a significant widening of the lead to Cons. That came down a bit last week, but they are still about 4% out due to that strange week. I am guessing they will tighten up their turnout model and their “final call” will be the one with the largest Con lead but just a point higher than the others (they were not as bad as others last time in 2017 on their final call).

  16. To be fair, Hooded Man (and others earlier) didn’t claim it was a limerick. He just posted lines that approximated to that format.

    Only in the context of Eric Morecambe playing Greig’s Piano Concerto could they be described as limericks – all the syllables were right, but not necessarily in the right order! :-)

  17. I know as much as most on here about the provenance of the Reddit documents relating to US interest in selling health services in the UK – ie very little.

    But I saw this tweet which suggests that the Reddit story may be a little more complex than might appear.

    https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1203250423345401856

    Not that I expect any variation of stories about this topic to influence votes at this late stage,

  18. Where are the rest of the bl**dy polls tonight.
    Am I naive in assuming that, as the commissioners are Tory supporting newspapers, they’re holding them back as long as possible because of a pro Lab swing?

  19. @Adrian Beavis

    “Opinium hasn’t just been an outlier it has also behaved very oddly..”

    Indeed so, and I was just about to post something very similar to you. Over the last 10 days, irrespective of the size of the Tory lead being shown, all the pollsters have detected a tightening except Opinium who, not only have been consistently showing the biggest Tory leads, but stasis too in terms of respective party VI. That’s a bit odd.

    And then, just look at what they’re calculating is the current state of voting intention. If replicated on polling day, they’re suggesting that we’re heading for something truly seismic in terms of postwar UK General Elections. Not only the biggest margin between the two major parties in that time (beating Thatcher’s 14.8% margin over Labour in 1983 and Blair’s 12.5% margin over the Tories in 1997) but also the largest vote share since Heath’s 46.4% in 1970, very nearly half a century ago, in the era of two party politics where both Labour and Tories regularly got mid to late 40s vote shares, even when losing.

    So, if Opinium are to be believed, we’re heading for one of the most extraordinary election results of all time, and a virtually unprecedented triumph for the Conservative Party. In post war terms, something never seen before.

    Hmmmmm, as we often say on these pages.

    (Caveat: they could be right, of course, but I’m only saying.) :-)}

  20. @JSB
    So the two loonies will still be in a job, while the serious politicians are gone. Doubtful.

    @Oldnat

    2/10 for readability. 9/10 for entertainment. :D

  21. @Oldnat (posting as I read)

    Surely it’s 8-8-5-5-8 for a limerick?

  22. Their was a young Labour supporter

    Who thought the polls were a shocker

    At last a poll appears to give him cheer

    Only to find it was a mocker.

  23. The good people of UKPR
    Seek poll data from near and far.
    They tend to lack samples,
    but now there are ample.
    And they still don’t know who’ll be crowned czar.

  24. There once was a voter from Tooting,
    For Boris he surely was rooting,
    But he got in a state,
    When brexit was late,
    And ended up shooting and looting

  25. Limerick structure:

    1) Must rhyme (not nearly rhyme).
    2) Must scan (not nearly scan)
    3) Must be of syllable structure xxyyx, where x & y and integers, and x > y.

  26. On the cesspit we do dwell
    It can be heaven or sometimes hell
    To do without would be a shame
    Peeps would disagree over the blame
    Maybe limericks can make the site swell. (again).

  27. Mog I would add that

    4) 7<x<10
    5) 5<y<7
    6) y<x

  28. Young Gladys was a sly tactical voter in Ealing
    Whose real intentions she’s not revealing
    She might tip towards Labour
    Just like her young neighbour
    But the Lib Dems may provide the electoral healing

  29. Boris appeared on the TV debate,
    With an oven-ready deal that is great,
    No tariffs on liquor,
    Or tampons or kipper,
    And he therefore secured Britain’s fate.

  30. @ProfHoward

    I have to naysay that
    In fact I smell a rat
    The number you see
    Can much lower be
    You’re wrong, as is Old Nat.

  31. Enjoying these poetic outputs, turncoat, cb11, jim jam danny, and statgeek.

  32. According to delta poll Guildford is going libdem, can’t wait wait for the next edition of the YouGov MRP. Still dont understand why the remain organisations didnt pay yougov for more MRP updates, unless yougov got paid more for not doing them.

  33. According to delta poll Guildford is going libdem, can’t wait wait for the next edition of the YouGov MRP. Still dont understand why the remain organisations didnt pay yougov for more MRP updates, unless yougov got paid more for not doing them.

  34. @ ALEC (last thread) – “It’s nothing to do with price!”

    Who said it was??!??

    Doh!

    Like why bovver to read my posts when you can just make your own sh!t up right?!?

    Jeez

    PS How’s the weather report on Planet Remain? Did you predict y’days weather correct earlier today??

  35. Prof Howard speaks with great sadness
    When he warns of a limerick’s badness
    To fail structure and rhyme
    Would be such a great crime
    And that way lies the path to insanity

  36. There once was a Tory called Johnson
    Who told porky pies just for fun
    He called an election
    But with tactical voting injection
    His ‘get Brexit done’ was undone.

  37. Polls may show the lead becoming less
    which will no doubt cause people much stress
    But there’s one thing we all know
    Whatever the polls may show
    what actually happens is anyone’s guess!

  38. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 11% (-4)
    BREX: 3% (-)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

    Lib dems to undecided? Maybe to labour later? Or just bewildered by conflicting leaflets?

  39. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 11% (-4)
    BREX: 3% (-)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

  40. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+1)
    LDEM: 11% (-4)
    BREX: 3% (-)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

  41. Rachel,

    The Tories would benefit from any polls showing the race tighter than the current average of polls suggests.

    The idea of remain Tories getting a free hit as Corbyn cant win would reduce plus they would like any potential complacency among their VI to be neutered.

  42. By the way, I only used Ealing in my limerick because of it’s rhyming couplet potential, not because it’s a constituency where tactical voting is likely to come into play. That said, I’m sure the MP, Rupa Huq might appreciate a few Lib Dem and Green votes being lent to her, just to make sure. It was very marginal in 2015.

    Labour defending a whopping 14,000 majority from 2017 though and, on paper and according to London polls, looking fairly safe.

    Tried a limerick using Putney but, after chutney, and an abbreviated gluttony, I couldn’t get it to work!

    :-)}

  43. CB11
    To be pedantic, on a GB basis Thatcher’s lead in 1983 was 15.2%! You have quoted the UK lead of 14.8%.

  44. Enjoying these poetic outputs, MOG, Frosty, TonyBTG, and B&Broomsticks

  45. @ PTRP – new thread so a reply from the old thread. I have to admit you are WAY, WAY better than me. So when you say:

    “I understand at times you can be a bit of a f#@kwit”

    yep, you win. You manage it ALL the time :-) :-)

    The rest of that post was utter drivel but at least you avoided mentioning the Iraq War

  46. Change in Tory lead tonight:
    Deltapoll -2 points
    Opinium 0 points
    Comres #1: -4 points
    Comres #2: -2 points

    Average narrowing of lead so far: -8/4=-2 points.

  47. Claire Hanna, likely next MP for South Belfast, emphasising her Labour links both in Dublin and in London, and an endorsement from Keir Starmer:

    https://twitter.com/ClaireHanna/status/1202947128127107073

  48. YouGov
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 33% (-)
    LDEM: 13% (+1)
    BREX: 3% (1)
    GRN: 3% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 05 – 06 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 03 Dec

  49. Sorry to repeat my post on the previous thread…..Two of my favourite quotes from a famous physician and philosopher, Sir William Osler:

    “The greater the ignorance, the greater the dogmatism”

    “The greatest ignorance is the conceit when a person knows when they do not know”

  50. Looks like game over to me. Lab have yet to get within 6 points of Con. Most polls showing either a large or comfortable majority for Con.

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