Below are the polls that have come out since the weekend.

SavantaComRes/Telegraph (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
YouGov/Times/Sky (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 4%(+2) (tabs)
ICM/Reuters (29th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
Kantar (28th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 44%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 2%(-1) (tabs)
Survation/GMB (26th-30th Nov) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(-2) (tabs)

Last week there appeared to be a consistent narrowing of the Conservative lead across all the polls. That now appears to have come to a halt or, at least, there is no obvious sign of it continuing. Four of the polls published this week have shown no sign of the lead narrowing (and the exception – the Survation poll for Good Morning Britain – was actually conducted last week, at a time when other polls were showing the lead falling). Note that the ComRes poll reflects a change in methodology to prompt for candidate names, something that somewhat unusually lead to all the parties falling and “other others” going up by four.

As things stand the polls show a consistent Conservative lead, varying between 6 points from BMG and 15 points from Opinium, with the average around about 10 points. It is hard to be certain what sort of lead the Conservatives need for a majority (it depends on swings in different areas and how they do in the different battlegrounds), but a reasonable assumption is somewhere around 6 or 7 points, meaning that the BMG and ICM polls that show the smallest leads are in an area where an overall majority would be uncertain. All the other polls point towards a Conservative majority.

We should have two more sets of polls before election day – the typical rush of Sunday polls (Opinium, Deltapoll, YouGov, BMG and ComRes all usually release polls on Sundays), and then the pollsters final call polls on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


877 Responses to “Midweek polling round up”

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  1. I fear that the result will be a Tory Majority of 20-40 seats.

    If this turns out to be correct I predict that the most likely scenario will be BRINO.

    For those who like crystal-balling….this is a possible chain of events.
    1. BJ gets his majority.
    2. The WA will be passed with no significant amendments before Christmas.
    3. Trade negotiations will begin, but this process won’t start in a meaningful way until Easter until the new EU commissioners have settled in to their roles.
    4. By summer little progress will have been made and the inevitable extension will be either agreed the executive without consulting parliament or if parliament has to be consulted it will pass with opposition support as we will have technically left the EU and why would they oppose an extension.
    5. The Brextremists in the Tory party will become angry – some may resign in protest, others will reluctantly tow the party-line. But BJ won’t care either way as his goal is simply to stay in power and he’ll realise that a hard Brexit will be too damaging to his future electoral prospects.
    6. In about 2022-3 a FTA may be signed resembling a CU, but perhaps more divergence on Services. Talks with the USA, India, China will have gone nowhere due to incompatibility. Or alternatively more extensions, more dither and delay.
    7. General election in Summer 2024. The result will depend on the state of the economy, the new Labour Leader and how Boris is judged on Brexit.

    Only a prediction….which I freely admit may be wrong.

  2. PETE B

    I don’t understand how ‘the NHS’ can be sold?

    It is unlikely to be sold. Drugs will cost more. The article at the link tells you what is already happening.

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/the-president-the-us-private-health-giant-and-top-nhs-officials-special-relationships/

    I put this link up before and copied and pasted the following paragraphs. If you cannot be bothered to read the whole article, please read what follows. I’m interested to know what you think of a two tier NHS system. Into which band might you fall?

    “So in February, we won our first business…. with one of those [regions]…. that’s where you’re going to manage with an ACO process. And so we’re tying in everything we do in the States into that win that we just received.” According to Renfro, it was “very, very close” to picking up another two regions and the firm had moved people over to the UK to manage the projects.

    Since then, it has been hired by NHS England to “accelerate” these reforms across the country. In the West Midlands, for example, Optum has advised the region’s GPs, hospitals and local councils on their plans. With its partner, PwC, it provided a 12 week programme of training for senior health officials across Birmingham, Solihull, Coventry, Warwickshire, Herefordshire and Worcestershire. It has also gone into partnership with GP “super-practice”, Modality.

    Among the other regions receiving Optum coaching and support are: Cumbria; Cambridge and Peterborough; South East London, Staffordshire and Norfolk, Optum was also brought in to help remodel health services in the region spanning Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes.

    Yeovil Hospital, which has led the reforms in Somerset, said: “The ACO model born in the US market is new to the UK, and as such we have partnered with globally experienced Optum who are guiding our journey into this new world.”

    At the same time, Optum has been on a hiring spree across the country of former NHS staff to undertake the work, led by former NHS England directors who have also passed through the revolving door. Ultimately, though, the man steering these reforms is Simon Stevens, CEO of NHS England. He previously, spent a decade at the top of UnitedHealth Group as Executive Vice President and president of its expanding global health businesses.

    The health secretary will still deny that privatisation is occurring on his watch. And Boris Johnson will continue to insist that the NHS is not for sale. Meanwhile, the seeds that Optum has been planting for a decade under the Tories are beginning to bear fruit.

  3. Laszlo
    Never seen that film. I was referring to the sport of target shooting.

  4. Having over-estimated Jo Swinson, and having failed to comprehend how the Brexit Party would wave the white flag in over half the constituencies, my estimates for the poll are likely to be far out.
    However, having researched today, enthusiasm to vote is rock bottom. Even former elected people may not vote. So they say.
    I think Boris gets home with or without help from minor parties.

    Which party leaders will be there in 12 months time?
    Conservatives – Boris – Yes.
    Labour- Corbyn- No.
    Swinson -Lib Dem – No.
    Farage – Brexit -No.
    Sturgeon-SNP-No.
    Price – Plaid – No.
    ? -UKIP-No.
    Hope- Monster Raving Loony – Yes.

  5. A collective consisting of Trev-
    ors, Who needlessly posture as clev-
    erer, Than everyone else
    Cause he’s so full of self,
    Can get right up your nose or on nerves.

  6. @Trevs – I know you never bother to read anything anyone else posts, but you really should read the stuff you post.

    From your link – “The UK-USA MRA contains the conditions under which each country will accept conformity assessment results from the other. It maintains the effects of the operational aspects of the EU-USA agreement in a bilateral context.”

    From article 2 of the agreement, ‘Purpose of the Agreement’ –

    “This Agreement specifies the conditions by which each Party shall accept or recognize results of conformity assessment procedures………The objective of such mutual recognition is to provide effective market access between the United States and the United Kingdom with regard to conformity assessment for all products covered under this Agreement.”

    You really do excel in just getting things wrong at times.
    It’s nothing to do with price!

    Doh!

  7. @Pete B,

    The handgun ban had a dramatic effect on the number of murders in the UK. They are less than half what they were, although they have been increasing in recent years (before anyone gets excited and Labour announce £1.2 trn for a “firearms reduction programme” paid for by a tax on double-barrelled surnames, this is largely to do with connectivity with Eastern Europe, the advent of the Dark Web and the growth of “Drill” gang culture).

    The ban was a success in its stated aim. Whether it has eliminated a hobby? Well, maybe. Single shot pistol shooting at ranges is still available to people who want to be sports shooters (and the UK still produces good ones). For me, legal handgun owners tended to be macho white males who liked to get it out and show people to impress them (I hope you’re talking about their handguns – Ed.)

    However, Johnson having an opposing view doesn’t make him a monster. There was a lot of disquiet at the time, with the libertarian tendency opposed. Worth remembering that the relevant legislation was brought in by the Tories.

  8. important typo above.

    Should read “reduction in the number of “reduction in the number of murders in the UK in which firearms were used

  9. Bah, bug*gered up my typo correction with a typo correction. But I think you get my drift.

  10. New thread on tonight’s poll releases.

  11. newfred

  12. SAM
    Thanks for that. I had to look up what ACO means. Yet another reorganisation for the NHS! It was reorganised at least 3 times in my less than 10 years there. I haven’t read the whole article, but I couldn’t see anything about selling off services or a two-tier system in what you quoted. It sounds as though they’ve brought in some American consultants to train and advise, using a lot of recent NHS staff. Outside expertise (including me to start with!) was often bought in while I was there. It wasn’t always useful IMO, but it’s nothing new.

    Anyway, whatever’s happening it’s a long way from Corbyn’s soundbite.

  13. “The greatest ignorance is the conceit that a person knows when they do not know.”

    “The greater the ignorance, the greater the dogmatism”

    Sir William Osler

  14. NickP Thanks.

  15. Alec

    ” Is there any point to this at all?”

    As i posted earlier Remainers clearly do not understand Brexiteers. For me the long term economic advantage I expect when we have left properly (whenever that is) is just an additional benefit. The real benefit is no longer being a member of the EU.

  16. @Pete B

    I agree about the “NHS for Sale” slogan. It is cynical but also very clever, as it means Boris would need several minutes of uninterrupted explanation to explain the nuances of our trade choices. Given that our combative interview / debates with their activist audiences don’t allow for reasoned discussions, then he just denies everything, which is equally cynical. Thus both sides are taking us for fools.

    And as for drug prices, we only buy ~10% of our drugs from the US and plenty of those are generic (i.e. cheap) and their generics are much cheaper than our own. Given that it is NICE that decides which drugs the NHS (in E&W) can use, then they would opt for next-best-in class / me-toos should the US price themselves out. And in any case, if the true extra drug cost is in the tens of millions to get a trade deal worth billions then so what? I do wish our politicians would talk to us like adults.

  17. New thread

  18. There once was a voter from Tooting,
    For Boris he surely was rooting,
    But he got in a state,
    When brexit was late,
    And ended up looting and shooting

  19. @TREVOR WARNE

    @ PTRP – Did you even bother to read the piece on Macron’s unilateral tax? Clearly not.

    from the article:

    Paris is not alone among European capitals in proposing a tax on big tech. Britain, Spain, Italy and Austria have also announced plans for their own digital levies.

    So unilateral in terms that they are not doing within the EU? OK but Macron is not the only one doing it in the EU and of more important Spain aims to raise more tax from it to an article which show the actual implementation of such taxes and the pros and cons

    I pointed out that the EU has no control on the individual countries tax approaches as long as it is seen as legally applicable to all and non prejudicial.

    and then there is this from the link I sent you

    This March the EU policymakers intensely debated about the introduction of a single EU-wide system of digital taxes. However, they had some disagreements and failed to achieve a general solution. Meanwhile, tax experts have drawn attention to the need for international collaboration on this issue. There is an ongoing OECD’s/G20’s BEPS Project which aims to standardize taxation of digital services across the world’s 34 richest nations. Yet, no consensus has been reached on any of the proposals so far.

    And lastly why I think it wont happen and individual counties will do thing somewhat piecemeal and uncoordinated and to my mind ineffectually (form your link)

    WHAT OBSTACLES LIE IN THE WAY?
    Trump. The U.S. president has already lambasted Macron’s “foolishness” for pursuing a French digital levy and has threatened to tax French wines in retaliation.

    The row illustrates how digital taxation could open up a new front in the trade spat between Washington and the EU as economic relations between the two appear to sour.

    Trump’s threat to punish France should not be taken lightly. It followed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s office announcing an investigation into the French tax, which it called an unfair trade practice that penalized U.S. tech companies for their commercial success.

    Low-tax jurisdictions also have misgivings about Macron’s tax plan because it would make it harder for them to attract foreign direct investment with the promise of ultra-low corporate taxes.

    and yet from my link

    Recently, Australia has introduced new requirements to cross-border supplies of digital products, so that more businesses have to pay a 10% Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1 July 2017.
    ……
    Belarus applies 20% VAT to all digital goods and services sold to consumers in the country.

    There’s no sales threshold, so every foreign business is expected to register for VAT, then collect and remit taxes according to the local guidelines.
    ……….
    France
    At the moment, large digital companies pay less than 10% tax in the EU, whereas traditional businesses pay an effective rate above 23%.

    Therefore, the government unveiled a proposal for a new tax on digital giants. The 3% revenue tax — known informally as the “GAFA” tax after the initials for Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon — would apply to tech companies that sell digital products from third parties, traffic in user data or sell digital advertising, and that have global annual revenues above €750 million ($848 million) and French revenues above €25 million.

    That covers around 30 companies. The economy ministry hopes to raise some €500 million a year through the new measure.

    Spain
    In January 2019 the Spanish government approved a draft law that taxes large online tech companies such as Amazon, Google and Facebook 3% of their digital revenues.

    The tax would apply to companies with annual global revenues of over €700 million and €3 million in Spain. The lawmakers expect it will result in the state receiving some €1.2 billion each year.

    n the USA, there are no unified law policies regarding the issue. Therefore, digital taxation varies from state to state.

    27 states tax digital products while the other 23 states do not. The tax rate varies from 1% to 7%, depending upon the state and the type of digital goods. Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, and Oregon do not have a retail sales tax at all.

    At the same time, the 2018 Supreme Court’s Wayfair ruling suggested that internet retailers can be obliged to collect sales taxes even in states where they have no physical presence. It is the first step towards acknowledging that enormous online sales taking place inside the country are often tax-free. The country is moving towards updating some archaistic tax laws that do not keep up with the digital economy.

    Nevertheless, the US government fervently opposes France’s proposed tax on digital companies, which it says is highly discriminatory against U.S. business entities. US officials believe it’s not fair for the companies to be subject to taxes at the location of their clients.

    I’m aware the REMTARD never understood “plausible scenarios” and I think your now on about 3 yellows. If you can’t be bovvered to even read my posts or links then save yourself to effort in replying.

    Yes you have used the plausible scenarios argument.when it was pointed out that the scenario is not plausible and it was shown not to be you have often scoffed, Indeed the point I raised with you regarding leo versus Boris was a case in point. Yes there was two possible scenarios either Ireland being thrown under the bus by the EU or the DUP being thrown under the bus by the Uk government which one was more plausible? When I pointed out DUP will find themselves disappointed because the Irish were prepared for no deal and polls showed that irish voters preferred no deal to Johnson checks on the border I said I felt that johnson would give way because he it was the easiest way to avoid the cliff edge. In the end he wants to win the election and he realises that no matter what he does no deal or deal he has to sort out the border in an orderly fashion especially since he wants a diverge in terms of regulations.

    I understand at times you can be a bit of a f#@kwit. BUT essentially what you are arguing here is that France, UK,Spain and others will circumvent transfer pricing by using a revenue model of taxation. As I have said people are already doing some of that and I believe that we will see more of it but I don’t believe it will stop transfer pricing model used by many of the companies because transfer pricing turns profits into losses and you cannot tax losses. So you still have have profits somewhere to be taxed. Will there less tax? In my view yes, but it is not going away any time soon and the digital tax system will insure that it will not

    The only way Ireland loses is if price transfering stops being an approach where Apple ireland can sell it IP licensing to Apple france such that it make a loss. The simple thing is the corporations are going to pay more tax where the revenue is created and still pay tax at low Corporate Tax centres to avoid paying it on profits because the alternative is they pay tax on the revenue and tax on their profits too form places with higher Corporate Tax. So it still becomes a no brainer

  20. @THE OTHER HOWARD
    @ALEC

    I think Brexiteers and leavers are talking past each other here. The point that is some brexiteers are making is that they feel believe whatever the advantages in being in EU are outweighed by the thoughts of the EU ‘having control’

    hence you have a the Widdicome allusion to slavery as an extreme example. Simply put there is nto a version of shared sovereignty associated with the EU that THE OTHER HOWARD thinks is politically acceptable.

    And yes ALEC the argument about the effective sovereignty is a valid counter in my view but not in the OTHER HOWARDs

  21. @JSB

    So the two loonies will still be in a job, while the serious politicians are gone. Doubtful.

  22. Look at the language used by Johnson in the aftermath of that shooting – “nanny confiscating toys”.

  23. @ ALEC – “It’s nothing to do with price!”

    Who said it was??!??

    Doh!

    Like why bovver to read my posts when you can just make your own sh!t up right?!?

    PS How’s the weather report on Planet Remain? Did you predict y’days weather correct earlier today??

  24. @ PTRP – “I understand at times you can be a bit of a f#@kwit”

    Hats off to you, you’re way better me – you manage it ALL the time? :-) :-)

  25. PETE B

    Trump is privatising the Veterans Healthcare scheme.It provides $70 billion of
    healthcare to 9 million USA veterans of a quality as good or significantly better than in privatised health. Those administering the VH have been pushed out and replaced by Trump’s people. On appointment the new chief denied any idea of privatisation. Optum is the company involved in the privatisation of VH. Optum is a giant health insurer.

    The same process is taking place in NHS England. Lord Prior, chair of NHS England, visited Optum headquarters in 2016. There have been other meetings at high level with UnitedHealth Group, the parent group of Optum. Simon Stevens, CEO of NHS England, was formerly at the top of UnitedHealth Group. He has the job of driving through the reforms in the 44 regions that make up the NHS England.

    The 2012 Health and Social Care Act removed from the health secretary’ the duty to provide key NHS services throughout England. Following that there is a lack of accountability for the provision of services in NHS England. There is also the option to take out private health insurance in the UK, which can offer quicker access to specialists, better facilities and shorter waiting times. So the seeds of a two tier service are there.

    “Optum specialises in using data and algorithms to predict and make decisions about who gets what care, something it has honed in America’s private health insurance system, where the more insurers cut costs and ration care, the more money they make. Optum’s algorithm was also recently found to show dramatic biases against black patients.” (From the OD article.)

    Optum has been involved in political discussions since 2010

  26. Not a real limerick I know, but I like the rhymes…

    A woman called Nicola Sturgeon
    Not formally trained as a surgeon
    Expects to perform Scotlandectomy
    She seems like another Wee Eck to me

  27. I think there might be a Tory Majority of 60+.

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