Below are the polls that have come out since the weekend.

SavantaComRes/Telegraph (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
YouGov/Times/Sky (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 4%(+2) (tabs)
ICM/Reuters (29th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
Kantar (28th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 44%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 2%(-1) (tabs)
Survation/GMB (26th-30th Nov) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(-2) (tabs)

Last week there appeared to be a consistent narrowing of the Conservative lead across all the polls. That now appears to have come to a halt or, at least, there is no obvious sign of it continuing. Four of the polls published this week have shown no sign of the lead narrowing (and the exception – the Survation poll for Good Morning Britain – was actually conducted last week, at a time when other polls were showing the lead falling). Note that the ComRes poll reflects a change in methodology to prompt for candidate names, something that somewhat unusually lead to all the parties falling and “other others” going up by four.

As things stand the polls show a consistent Conservative lead, varying between 6 points from BMG and 15 points from Opinium, with the average around about 10 points. It is hard to be certain what sort of lead the Conservatives need for a majority (it depends on swings in different areas and how they do in the different battlegrounds), but a reasonable assumption is somewhere around 6 or 7 points, meaning that the BMG and ICM polls that show the smallest leads are in an area where an overall majority would be uncertain. All the other polls point towards a Conservative majority.

We should have two more sets of polls before election day – the typical rush of Sunday polls (Opinium, Deltapoll, YouGov, BMG and ComRes all usually release polls on Sundays), and then the pollsters final call polls on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


877 Responses to “Midweek polling round up”

1 14 15 16 17 18
  1. Russian money and American ideology fuels Brexit.

    “The organisations involved in this collaboration between the US and UK radical right are partners in a global coalition of more than 450 thinktanks and campaign groups called the Atlas Network, which has its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. Members of the network operate independently but also cooperate closely in fighting for their shared vision of ultra free markets and limited government. They call themselves the “worldwide freedom movement”, collectively they have multimillion-dollar budgets, and many of their donors, board members, trustees and researchers overlap.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/29/rightwing-thinktank-conservative-boris-johnson-brexit-atlas-network

    https://bylinetimes.com/2019/11/09/russian-influence-in-britain-what-johnson-doesnt-want-you-to-know/

  2. CON majority (326+) seats now priced at 74% implied probability

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311

    The Collective are cashing that one in ;)

    Residual bets skewed to a hung parliament or large CON majority (although we’ve taken a lot of chips off the table on the 340+ seat bucket as folks seem keen to betting on that one)

    Should start to get the Sunday press polls soon and perhaps some of today’s move in the bookies is a bit of “inside info”?!?

    NB Sporting Index seats have barely moved but a lot of bid-offer if you want arbitrage seat spread bets v betfair. Also note that as the clock ticks down then the “long shot” bets will start to widen out as more folks bet on the ‘consensus’ and less ‘event risk’ (eg Boris mega Gaff). Hence you see CON 40-45% range becoming very clear favourite (and note that is UK % not GB)

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.162053055

  3. ROBBIE ALIVE – You dont seem to grasp this at all really do you. 99% of what Boris says is neither here nor there to Leavers. He can lie about whatever he feels like so long as he gets to No10 with a majority on Thursday, and gets his WA passed before Xmas. Thats all that we require from him. One thing, one thing only – Brexit. Anything else doesn’t even rate as secondary.

  4. Andrew Williams
    Well said. Brexit has been sabotaged for long enough.

  5. One thing I dont understand with the media coverage of the “brexit election” 6 million people signed the revoke petition in a few days, these are people that are totally opposed to leaving the EU, not seen a single one on the TV vox pops. While I personally dont agree with the revoke position I do find it odd that 6 million people who were so committed to the revoke cause could disappear without a trace

  6. @Andrew Williams
    Succinctly put! And I wholeheartedly agree. Right now I couldn’t care less what is said about BoJo my hatred for the EU runs far deeper.

  7. Lucid Talks (NI) appear to have a new poll but only info out so far is “election issues”, possibly more to come (eg VI for instance?)

    https://twitter.com/LucidTalk

  8. @ Andrew Williams

    “You dont seem to grasp this at all really do you. 99% of what Boris says is neither here nor there to Leavers.”

    No, I don’t grasp yr “thinking”. But then I have never had much interest in the mental life of sociopaths.

  9. “Right now I couldn’t care less what is said about BoJo my hatred for the EU runs far deeper.”

    You should maybe get some counselling?

  10. @Princess Rachel

    While I personally don’t agree with the revoke position I do find it odd that 6 million people who were so committed to the revoke cause could disappear without a trace.

    Just because 6 million people sign petition about x, doesn’t they think it’s important. Once a GE arrives, I think the less important issues fall away, as people focus on what is significant.

    I’ve signed loads of petitions about all sorts of things, and I can’t remember most of them!

    (This is why I hate online petitions as a proxy for genuine political activity. They mostly mean nothing and mostly get ignored.)

  11. @Princess Rachel

    While I personally don’t agree with the revoke position I do find it odd that 6 million people who were so committed to the revoke cause could disappear without a trace.

    Just because 6 million people sign petition about x, it doesn’t mean they think it’s important. Once a GE arrives, I think the less important issues fall away, as people focus on what is significant.

    I’ve signed loads of petitions about all sorts of things, and I can’t remember most of them!

    (This is why I hate online petitions as a proxy for genuine political activity. They mostly mean nothing and mostly get ignored.)

  12. ‘DON’T-TELL-EM-PIKE
    @Andrew Williams
    Succinctly put! And I wholeheartedly agree. Right now I couldn’t care less what is said about BoJo my hatred for the EU runs far deeper.’

    How can one hate a democratic institution committed to capitalism?

    Seriously weird comment, perhaps shown by the persona used – Captain Mainwaring, after all, was a figure of fun and out of his depth.

  13. There once was a chancer from Eton,
    Who’s head looked like it’d got shredded wheat on.
    He thinks Labour leavers,
    Are now true believers.
    An assumption he’s betting his seat on.

  14. @Jack
    This is where we fundamentally disagree. I do not see anything remotely democratic about the EU.

    It’s executive body has a ‘Parliament’ that it can choose to ignore and can exercise legislation without accountability.

    In the history of mankind, when has that much power so far removed from the people, EVER ended well?

    As for your comparison to me with mainwaring, like him I have worked hard to achieve a comfortable life from an extremely humble beginnings… I’ll take that, thanks.

  15. Most views are strong, some eccentric,
    Can mean that ad-homs come fast and thick,
    To keep everything cool,
    Can we have a new rule?
    Strong feelings should be in a limerick.

  16. Jonathan Stuart Brown,
    “If we are out, then no problem for Britain.”

    On the contrary, if we are IN, then no problem. As members of the EU nothing is going to hapen either about armies or anything else we dont like. If we leave, then the Uk will be dragged into whatever the EU decides. Thats how it will be.

    “The campaigns have been poor, lacklustre, low energy and the TV debates have regressed from previous years.”

    I rather agree. But the reason is there is one huge issue which dominates everything, which cuts across party lines so is very difficult for the parties to pronounce on. Brexit has also seen both main parties fighting internally, never a good look.

    ” The UK will have to spend much more on Defence and happily it is a very popular option ”

    i really doubt that. the future for UK armed forces is continuing shrinkage under lab or con.

    The Trevors,
    “The key difference between Brexit and Indy is that UK pays EU £10bn/yr where as Scotland receive over £10bn/year from UK.”

    My goodness, we are back doing the fake figures on busses story. The question, as you well know, is what gains the uk makes from its membership. Your number is the membership fee, not the benefits package.

    Andrew Williams,
    “. Us Leavers aren’t bothered whether he is or he isn’t so long as he delivers.”

    How can you believe in a cause when the people leading that cause cannot be believed when they say what that cause is?

    Passthe rockplease,
    “I think this is a misunderstanding that many remainers have since for many of us we have looked at this as a cost benefit analysis.”

    Its certainly true people like andrew williams are amongst the most vocal supporters of brexit and want it to happen at whatever cost. But polling at the referendum showed the majority of leave supporters did not believe there would be a cost. It is possible such people if convinced there is a cost would continue to be leavers, but the weakness of the leave side is in those who would change to remain as the cost of Brexit mounted. When last I saw a poll, they dont yet believe in a cost. Maybe nor does Andrew really, if he things it will all be OK in the end?

  17. What happened to the milk shake throwing craze? Too cold out for those kind of people? ;)

  18. Catman

    It was the most signed petition of all time and the fastest growing, there must have been some strength of feeling associated, I can’t believe that less than 6 months later that has disappeared without a trace. I can believe that those 6 million might vote on other issues or they might vote tactically for labour as the best option for a 2nd ref. What I cant believe is that while the vox pops can easily find obsessive brexiters they can’t find a single obsessive remainer

  19. Homeless people. Many are inured to this, many are indifferent. Normally, a political party responsible for this would be abhorrent. today it looks like being returned to power – to do worse.

    “Last month nearly 1,700 people came to the town hall either because they’re already homeless, or fear they are about to be.

    Manchester is housing 411pc more homeless families in temporary accommodation than in 2015, currently around six every day. Initially, that usually means being placed in a hotel. That could mean a Travelodge ten miles away, or it might mean the bed and breakfast – and others like it – that Clare describes, one of the establishments the M.E.N. visited for our investigation last year.

    On September 30, when Manchester United were playing at home and the Conservative Party conference was in town, the city and surrounding boroughs ran out of hotel rooms for homeless people altogether. One family had to be split up because a room couldn’t be found to accommodate all of them, while another had to be put on a train to Sheffield.”

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/broken-people-broken-system-manchesters-17192581

  20. Should mention that I have an obsessive brexiteer boyfriend and quite a few obsessive remainer friends. Makes for fun nights out, lol

  21. Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 42% (=)
    LAB: 36% (+4)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    BXP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 2-5 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-3 Dec.

    Oops

  22. Princess

    ComRes must have found a helluva big shift on 4-5 Dec!

  23. Always instructive to look back at history.

    This, from @Trevor Warne, June 2nd, 2017 at 11:46 am

    “Do polls accurately reflect busy working people’s views (by far the largest “demographic bucket”)?
    With landslide looking very unlikely and talk of hung parliament has the motivation to vote risen for busy working people?

    Close elections raise turnout from all sides (e.g. IndyRef, Brexit). Complacent elections see a large drop in turnout (eg 2001 GE).

    By raising the uncertainty due to narrow lead in the polls the press are getting the message out to “complacent” CONs and probably just about the perfect timing a well?!?”

    On the basis of the above, these 2019 polls look excellent for Labour!

    We ought though to give credit to one time poster @Squeezedmiddle for this gem –

    “When the GE was called I thought the result would be much the same as 2015 with a 6.5% gap between CON and LAB.

    I expect another GE in about 2 years when there will be splits about agreeing a Brexit deal.”

    June 2nd, 2017 at 4:44 pm

    Top marks!

  24. Oldnat

    I think this one is an outlier but happy if other polls confirm the movement

  25. @ PROFHOWARD

    “I am terrible at this but here is mine”

    ————

    Yours wasn’t terrible at all Prof. Au contraire! It’s been a good day for limericks, IMHO

  26. @ Princess R
    “Should mention that I have an obsessive brexiteer boyfriend ..”

    Ha ha. Somehow, from the opinion we have formed of yr character on here, I can imagine he takes a bit of a well-deserved tongue lashing.
    Well done for getting that poll out first!

  27. @PRINCESS RACHEL

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 42% (=)
    LAB: 36% (+4)
    LDM: 11% (-1)
    BXP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 2% (=)

    Via @SavantaComRes, 2-5 Dec.
    Changes w/ 2-3 Dec.

    Hope lives!

  28. Does the SavantaComRes poll suggest Lab has gained from don’t knows?

  29. I’m a long time lurker on this site and always enjoy your pontifications. Here is my entry into the limerick competition:

    A mendacious Bullingdon boy
    Thought “easy” he’d destroy
    Red Jez though was ready
    And held the polls steady
    With leaks as a distraction ploy

  30. Interesting poll done for Remain United so a vested interest in a closing of the polls for them. Let’s wait and see the breakdown and further polls tonight. They also think we’re in a hung parliament situation with remain parties having a slight advantage.

  31. The previous SavantaComRes one was the one where they showed people the ballot paper and the individual parties went down 1% each while ‘other’ got 5%. Not sure how they ended up with that but that is likely to be where the missing 4% comes from in this poll

  32. @Bantams

    You that pollsters don’t adjust or fix results to suit the organisation who have commissioned it.

  33. I found this, it might be of interest:

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

    The PM and pendulum model developed by researchers in 2005 has predicted the results of every election since 2005 with reasonable accuracy.

    To quote:

    “The track record of the PM and pendulum model has been generally good. In 2005 it forecasted a Labour majority and lead of 132 seats over the Tories: the actual outcome a 159 seat lead. In 2010 it predicted a hung parliament with a slight edge for the Conservatives. The 311-265 prediction two months prior to Election Day was close to the eventual result of 307-258.

    In February 2015, Lebo and Norpoth made an initial forecast of a 7.1% Tory vote lead with 322 Tory seats and 254 Labour seats – very close for both the vote lead of 6.6 and the actual 331 Conservative and 232 Labour seats”

    Here’s what it has predicted for the current election:

    “the model predicts a 2.4 point Conservative lead over Labour. That suggests the Tories will end up with 311 seats, short of an overall majority but still comfortably ahead of Labour’s expected tally of 268 MPs.

    Computer simulations can assess the uncertainty of the PM and pendulum model and show a 90% confidence interval for the Conservatives stretching from 269 to 356 seats. The estimates suggest that Boris Johnson has about a 1 in 4 chance of securing the majority (of 326 seats or more) that he needs to deliver his Brexit deal.”

  34. @Bantams. D

    Don’t be a poll conspiracist! It could be a sampling error. I would welcome any serious contributions from the stats ‘ geeks’ on here who might be able to shed some light on this!

  35. Correction

    @Bantams

    You know that pollsters don’t adjust or fix results to suit the organisation who have commissioned it.

  36. That’s why I’d like to study the breakdown.

  37. IIRC

    The ComRes poll that ran to 3 Dec was the one that showed +5% for others.

  38. John33

    I think it could be sampling error — i.e. just by chance they ended up contacting a lot more people in the population who said Labour. Best hold off any assessments of this to end of evening.

  39. Tweet that the Lib Dem fall below 12% is important.
    Just one poll.
    A bit of fun.
    Lovely day here in the two seats of Bournemouth where we ran today.

  40. A 6% Tory lead might still be sufficient for a small majority given that the LDs are down at 11%. Very similar to the lead under Cameron in 2015. Nevertheless 36% is Labour’s highest poll share of the campaign and matches that achieved by Blair in 2005.

  41. We remainers have kicked up a fuss,
    About lies on the side of a bus,
    For us to achieve our goals,
    We need a surge in the polls,
    And Johnson booted out in a huff.

  42. Article on the SavantaComRes poll below. Seems to be further analysis which incorporates tactical voting (43% of remainers apparently intend to vote tactically). FWIW, that shows CON 312, LAB 250, LIB 15, SNP 51. SNP figure sounds a little high to me but i guess we will find out in a week’s time.

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/new-poll-shows-tory-lead-cut-to-6-tory-majority-can-be-stopped-with-tactical-voting/07/12/

    Apparently remainunited will publish new analysis etc on Monday at 9am

  43. @ GRICHAL – Your a bit late on that one.

    Still keen to hear how their model allegedly got 2005 so close or maybe for LAB the pendulum swings both ways?

    My guess is they assume LDEM are just Tories (as that would explain 2005 but then create a few problems in other years).

    Great concept for US where only 2 parties exist – not so good for 3+ parties (and 4 nations)

  44. @BANTAMS

    “Security is a lot tighter these days, how the hell did they find out where he was going? The last thing Boris wants at this stage is someone being hurt trying to get to or at him and this applies to the other leaders.”

    Local party activists would know he’s visiting so they can get the signs and balloons out. Otherwise it would look strange for him to be there alone! I expect some people on the email list would be moles. Alternatively, a council or police/security worker let a few friends know.

    Whatever happened, Boris has exposed himself as another scaredy cat posh boy terrified of meeting real people. He’s one of the worst of our current terrible crop of politicians.

  45. @Frosty (“SNP figure sounds a little high to me but i guess we will find out in a week’s time.”)

    It may be based on over-optimistic assumptions about the likely levels of tactical voting. Indeed the Lab and LD totals may similarly be based on high levels of TV, but the Scottish situation is particular, insofar as some people might see themselves as tactical voters against independence rather than against Brexit, for example.

  46. @TREVOR WARNE

    When “veto” and “consensus” clash then they waste years/decades until the “horse trading” process achieves a result (with plenty of can kicking along the way) OR they hit an urgent deadline and have to make a decision.

    Agreed but as I said that this is not happening anytime soon individual countries can pursue their own approach as you have pointed out but do you think this is going to make a difference. The EU agreed transfer pricing and in truth it is a global issue since it is done across the world not just in ireland or Luxembourg. This has been part and parcel of tax avoidance which is UK is one of the world leaders in so it is our comparative advantage. It is like arguing that UK will close down British Virgin island and the other tax havens……I don’t see it happening unless we join something politically stronger than the EU……

    In the old days they’d do a full treaty update every now and then and some countries would have to go through refs etc. They try to avoid the need for that democratic process these days by bending the old “rules” to grab a bit more sovereignty for Brussels (or Frankfurt or Troika)

    Again it depends on the forum and the issue. The trikola were able to impose terms of Greece because they were the lender of last resort. there was unanimity on the part of the EZ countries that were performing the bailout. if greece could get it debt serviced another way then they would not have the problems they had. I have blamed the banks for the fact that they completely miscalculated the risk they basically sold greek debt as if it was German debt which was madness.

    There is little that any one country can do as you said what is going to be the crisis that make the EU change it’s stance on the independence of each countries tax system (remember the EC did not say that Ireland could not give apple it rebate it argued it needed to give everyone the rebate for it to be fair or Apple should pay more tax)

    Also note Macron is stirring things up a bit and already going “solo” with a digital tax.

    In fact he is not Uk and other including germany have muted or announced a digital tax on the likes of facebook and the like. pretty much as a number of commentators have said they would I believe we even discussed this because the pitching of it and who it encompasses could be problematic since a number of digital services are high revenue but low profit.

    I don’t go in for the crystal ballsh!t like some

    I think you stopped because you kept being outflanked by events, I remember that at each point you were wrong you ‘adapted’ which is fair enough. Although I did like your sparring with ALEC though

    It’s almost amusing to hear LoCs defend RoI – they have regressive income tax policies like SARP yet LoCs love RoI as they’ve being making Brexit so difficult.

    The majority 21 tory rebels were for a deal that is why they went for the legislative approach. It is brexiteer that are fighting amongst themselves about brexit. If remainers were in control or in the majority we would have had a 2nd referendum by now. There has always been a parliamentary majority for brexit it is just, as I keep saying, no one can agree on what brexit is. I have used JONESINBANGOR versus yourself as the range of view about this

    the border itself was not difficult. The UK had to make it mind up what it wanted to do. It did and it is done. Leo poked Boris up the a4se for good measure because he had to throw the DUP under the bus. Pretty masterful stuff for a useful eejit,as you kept calling him.

    the Irish tax system is much more progressive than the UK for individuals overall and on every measure I could find Ireland has less income inequality than the UK
    The SARP is limited to 5 years of relief and applies for foreign transfers and thus is very much a limited tax. so unless you have something else I call Bullsh1t on that

    However, of course feel free to project your opinion as mine.

    I have not projected my opinion as your’s you have reinforced what I wrote about the fact that you believe that Ireland will have to give up it one competitive advantage due to EU pressure. I pointed out that I cannot see a path to that happening and pointed out why and then you write the exact thing above only saying that you don’t now know when it is going to happen because you have no crystal ball

    ;-)

    In all fairness I would rate this as a poor effort, My views on Ireland have been clear for a long time.
    I am in favour of NI making it own mind up as to whether it rejoins Ireland or not. I have argued that the UK being in EU made the issue mute and Brexit brought it to the fore. I have presumed this to be your view

    Where we have disagreed has been on the smudging of the red lines I pointed out that they could not be smudged as you thought they would and in truth I have been proved right. The border was only an issue because firstly the promises made by the leave campaign and secondly because it pointed to the logical and political dynamics of having to concede the border issue explicitly and lastly because of May’s unable to obtain an overall majority which put the DUP in play (something that you were a cheerleader for, remember you argued for WTO or at least one of you did)

    I agree with the unwieldiness of the EU it is hard to get 27 countries to agree but they do more than they don’t and they are making progress.

    I have argued that the UK will leave the EU, I think that THE OTHER HOWARD agreed that the UK would most likely leave with no deal when May produced her lancaster house speech. In truth nothing has changed that view since the basic issues still remain. The WA was the easy bit.

    Lastly here is a primer on digital tax since I believe how it is set is goign to be rather interesting

  47. “The estimates suggest that Boris Johnson has about a 1 in 4 chance of securing the majority (of 326 seats or more) that he needs to deliver his Brexit deal.”

    Surely that’s not accurate at all. He could win considerably less than 326 and still manage to deliver his Brexit, due to SF abstentionism.

  48. @RP – yes, was just thinking that – saw the figure before tactical voting was about 44. The situation in scotland is different to england and wales.

  49. @ FROSTY – The tricky issue with tactical voting is the risk of “double counting”. You should see Remain split roughly 4:1 for LAB:LDEM to “optimise” tactical voting and hence that quite possibly explains a decent chunk of the LDEM VI moving to LAB.

    If you then run numbers already showing a LAB tactical voting boost through a model with a tactical voting adjustment then you will double count the effect.

    43% tactical voting is massive – not saying it’s impossible but plenty of recent articles showing historic tactical voting

    PS Also note that in many LAB Leave seats there is very little LDEM’17 vote to squeeze (a lot moved over to LAB in GE’15 and more again in GE’17)

    However, it is certainly still ‘all to play for’

  50. @ Grichal

    They don’t seem to mention their 2017 prediction though, do they. Any idea how close they were, or did they have an off year?

1 14 15 16 17 18

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)