Below are the polls that have come out since the weekend.

SavantaComRes/Telegraph (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
YouGov/Times/Sky (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 4%(+2) (tabs)
ICM/Reuters (29th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
Kantar (28th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 44%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 2%(-1) (tabs)
Survation/GMB (26th-30th Nov) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(-2) (tabs)

Last week there appeared to be a consistent narrowing of the Conservative lead across all the polls. That now appears to have come to a halt or, at least, there is no obvious sign of it continuing. Four of the polls published this week have shown no sign of the lead narrowing (and the exception – the Survation poll for Good Morning Britain – was actually conducted last week, at a time when other polls were showing the lead falling). Note that the ComRes poll reflects a change in methodology to prompt for candidate names, something that somewhat unusually lead to all the parties falling and “other others” going up by four.

As things stand the polls show a consistent Conservative lead, varying between 6 points from BMG and 15 points from Opinium, with the average around about 10 points. It is hard to be certain what sort of lead the Conservatives need for a majority (it depends on swings in different areas and how they do in the different battlegrounds), but a reasonable assumption is somewhere around 6 or 7 points, meaning that the BMG and ICM polls that show the smallest leads are in an area where an overall majority would be uncertain. All the other polls point towards a Conservative majority.

We should have two more sets of polls before election day – the typical rush of Sunday polls (Opinium, Deltapoll, YouGov, BMG and ComRes all usually release polls on Sundays), and then the pollsters final call polls on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


877 Responses to “Midweek polling round up”

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  1. Labour surge over.

  2. Everyone cites Survation as the only pollster who called 2017 GE correctly. Am I right in thinking in 2015 it was ICM who hit it on the nose?

    Worth looking closely at them (with their narrowest lead)? Very much hung parliament territory…

  3. Question: All the polls seem to show a high level of undecided – typically 10%. Is this usual at this stage? I think this could be higher than normal for this stage of a campaign. Does anyone know? Also do the models allow for the apparent surge of under 25s registering?

  4. There should be a Scottish poll released tonight (YouGov / Times). The Times (Scottish edition) led today on other questions in the poll, about the Scottish Government’s handling of the NHS and education.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rx0hm1jfkw/TheTimes_191203_Scotland_VI_Results_w1.pdf

  5. “Labour surge over.”
    @jonesinbangor December 5th, 2019 at 7:03 pm

    I’m afraid you’ve got the date wrong. The Election is next week.

  6. ”We should have two more sets of polls before election day – the typical rush of Sunday polls (Opinium, Deltapoll, YouGov, BMG and ComRes all usually release polls on Sundays), and then the pollsters final call polls on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.“

    ———-

    With any luck, we’ll get another hung parliament, therefore another election in a year or two, maybe the odd referedum… lots more polling to look forward to…

  7. Best-case scenario = hung parliament. Jeremy steps down and is replaced (ideally) by a younger/female leader. Immediate Lab gain in opinion polls by 5%-10%.
    New manifesto – keep much of the existing (e.g. rail nationalisation) but perhaps delay some stuff to a potential second term. There’s too much too soon in there at the mo.
    Realistic scenario = Johnson majority of at least 30, probably 50. Brexit inevitably initiated, and Johnson lasts a whole 5 years before being totally annihilated at the next election on a 1997 scale.

  8. James Morrison

    One of the “odd” (well, not really – it’s the Times) was their blanking out of the numbers with a Holyrood VI for any of the Unionist parties, while indicating that the SNP had a VI of 35% of the whole sample (including WNV, DK) for Holyrood in a poll that did not include 16-17 year olds.

    Always better to release data in a way that pushes your agenda, though I wouldn’t assume that the Times will authorise the release of any other VI data yet, if it doesn’t suit their purpose.

  9. Once again, certain folk are straight in with partisan comments. Please keep to factual discussion of polling please. There’s lots to talk about without forcing your own political allegiance on others.

  10. @ CMJ

    It’s interesting to see that your model now predicts almost no change in London, whereas a few weeks ago there were many CON gains. This of course ties in with the London crossbreaks switching back to Lab, so entirely expected, but quite fun that we’ve now got back almost exactly to 2017 territory. A slight nudge further and we may get to a point where the only seat to change hands is Zac Goldsmith’s. I think this is probably about right and will be close to final outcome in London. But Labour will almost certainly be losing (potentially big-time) elsewhere.

  11. So pleased to see Andrew Neil calling out Boris Johnson tonight! Absolutely the right thing to do and it’s shameful that he is running away from scrutiny.

  12. FUZZTHEDUCK

    Please don’t presume yourself to be of such importance as to instruct others in how to engage on here.
    Many thanks.

  13. The polls have been particularly quiet this week with next to nothing happening. For Labour that’s not enough and time is running out.

    Con will be happy. They are solid on about 42% and unless Johnson implodes in the next seven days it’s unlikely much is going to change.

    Overall a very dull election campaign.

  14. @OLDNAT

    Kenny Farq (who has presumably seen the poll) was questioning on twitter whether the “SNP, but don’t like their performance on public services” will actually vote that way.

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1202498769348124672

  15. @Neil G
    Re Tories get annihilated at next election rather depends if the mass media holds them to account for the consequences of Brexit. In 2014 doubtless the Tories will be blaming Labour for the failings of Brexit and the likely upheavals in Scotland. How will the mass media present it? And with the Lib Dems undoubtedly still raising the prospect of rejoining the Eu at every possible opportunity, I think this is the beginning of Labours travails, not the end.

  16. “2024” even.

  17. Archer

    “Am I right in thinking in 2015 it was ICM who hit it on the nose?
    Worth looking closely at them (with their narrowest lead)? ”

    No. It’s been a long time since ICM was the most accurate.

    ICM’s final polls in 2015 showed a tie and a 1 point Labour lead.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

  18. Neil G

    “e.g. rail nationalisation”

    I’d point out that the word “nationalisation” appears nowhere in the Labour manifesto. It talks of “public ownership” which can be of many forms.

    Indeed, I was concerned when I originally saw talk of Labour intending to “nationalise” [1] water and energy, as that would involve transferring ownership of Scottish and NI Water from their respective administrations, and the not-for-profit Welsh Water, to a single body owned by the UK Government.

    That turned out not to be the case – it was just careless use of language. Labour would have been out of their minds to have advocated such, since they are well aware that their best chance of forming a government relies on the support of MPs from Scotland.

    Public ownership does not imply control by politicians – indeed Cal Mac, which is 100% owned by the Scottish Government on behalf of the people, has taken a legal action against the SG because they didn’t get the Northern Isles ferry contract!

    https://stv.tv/news/highlands-islands/1442906-scottish-ministers-face-being-sued-by-own-ferry-company/

    [1] “Nationalisation usually refers to private assets or assets owned by lower levels of government, such as municipalities, being transferred to the state.” (Wiki)

  19. On the previous thread I posted this

    OLDNAT
    PASSTHEROCKPLEASE
    HULAGU

    Long article from Peter Ungphakorn whom I should have read first.

    https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/08/21/bother-at-wto-court/#more-7070

    “So, WTO dispute settlement can muddle along, at least for a while, despite the crisis in the Appellate Body. Other WTO functions — monitoring and peer review of how the present agreements are implemented (see below), negotiation, and technical assistance and capacity-building — can continue.

    It’s not even clear if those areas of work would be hampered if dispute settlement broke down completely, although ultimately it would depend on countries continuing to have faith in the system as a whole. For now, we are a long way away from that.”

  20. Has this been the dullest election campaign in recent memory? Very little has been happening and the polls are placid.
    This surely favours Con as Lab remain at least four points behind just to force a hung Parliament.

    It all seems a bit flat.

  21. NEIL G

    Unless I am mistaken, nationalisation of public services is not possible whilst we remain in the EU. Is this not part of Corbyn’s dilemma where BREXIT is concerned? So how that is a “best case” scenario re the manifesto?

    I would be curious as to how many voters know that, if I haven’t misremembered it.

    But given the polls, I agree with your likely scenario.

    This does not quite feel to me the way it did in the 2017 GE, as it became clear the Tories were heading for disaster.

    As is often said in chess, the winner is the player who makes the next to last mistake.

    Absent making the last, rather next to last mistake, these polls suggest a modest but reasonable enough majority for Johnson to move on his agenda.

  22. OLD NAT

    Thanks for your post, which clarified a question I had about NEIL G’s post and the term “nationalisation” for a future Labour manifesto whilst still inside the EU.

  23. @MIKE PEARCE

    Well it looks like the Tories learnt their lesson at the last election – keep your candidate safe, the news cycle moving, continuously attack and all singing from the same sound bite hymn sheet.

    I’m holding off on the pre-postmortem diatribe against Labour’s campaign, but needless to say I think they have been incredibly naive. Had a good start – but ti seems to have come off the rails a bit.

  24. I rarely post links but I think this one with Andrew Neil challenging Johnson to be interviewed is relevant as the Corbyn one affected Labour badly.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50679252

  25. erdrich

    week to go yet – Labour have complained about bias to the BBC

    Having forced them to consider their impartiality let’s see what happens for next 7 days.

  26. Cons have had a good week for sure. Benign polls and Boris you have to say pulled a blinder on This Morning with the selfie.

  27. Redrich

    Yes Labour have been naive and they will need to learn from this when it comes to the next GE.

    The Tory campaign has been ultra defensive. Johnson may avoid meaningful scrutiny in this GE but that will not last forever and I suspect his unwillingness to be interviewed by Neil will come back to bite him at a future date.

  28. Looking at the unweighted numbers on the Yougov Scottish poll the Tories are virtually the same as 2017 but Labour have fallen off a cliff and the SNP & LD’s are hoovering their losses up between them.

  29. The election was probably won for Boris the day the UK and EU concluded the new WA. On the face of it, it’s a pretty meaningless document that resolves next to nothing; but it allowed him to go into the campaign saying he had a Brexit deal, and just seeking the consent of the voters to allow him to pass it unammended.

    “Get Brexit Done” would have been a rubbish slogan had there been no WA in sight; the Red Wall would largely have held firm and we would now be on the verge of another hung parliament.

  30. @BANTAMS

    Getting back to 2017, which has already been sort of indicated by Panelbase and Mori (and the GB polls of course), would still represent a decent-ish result for the Scots Tories.

    It’s likely that their relative position to the SNP will hold up better in the seats they are defending, because there is usually less Labour vote there for the SNP to take. There is also a suspicion that the SNP may under-perform their polls. That certainly happened in 2016 and 2017.

  31. @RAF

    I tend to agree. Farage would have been a much stronger factor if there was no divorce deal in place, and there would have been a lot more suspicion of the 31 October pledge being broken. “No end in sight”.

  32. A decent monologue by Andrew Neil. The drawback is that he has seemingly revealed the bulk of the content of the proposed “grilling”. Rather advantageous for the one being “grilled” I suspect!

  33. Bantams

    Always hard to work out how the weightings affect things, but it may (or not) be relevant that the 2017 SNP voting respondents are down weighted by 10%, while the SNP VI for Holyrood is only down weighted by 4%.

    People do vote differently for Westminster and Holyrood, but such data as we have from this poll, doesn’t suggest a reduction in SNP Westminster VI. For that to have happened, would fly in the face of all the other polling evidence.

    There has been a constant barrage of SNPbad stories in the press and BBC about failures in the areas handled by Holyrood, but a distinct absence in this poll of any questions as to which other party (if any) might handle things better.

    Without such questions, it’s probably wise to consider the release of a selection from this poll as an election stratagem, rather than a genuine seeking after truth!

    Such uses of partial polling data would hardly be a novelty from any partisan source, on any side of any political argument, in any environment, on anything.

  34. “The drawback is that he has seemingly revealed the bulk of the content of the proposed “grilling”. Rather advantageous for the one being “grilled” I suspect!”

    Bit of a double edged sword though. No excuse not to know the answers.

  35. Andrew Neil’s lengthy and rather pointed monologue would rather suggest that some of the criticism related to bias at the BBC has stung a fair bit. They will certainly need to be a bit more astute going forward especially given that the accusations of coverage favouring the Conservatives has been made within the context of the BBC’s main political team constituting mostly right of centre types (see the merry get together at the right wing Spectator magazine party in 2017, virtually the whole BBC team drinking and chatting happily with the government).

  36. Tweets (15) from David Henig on the US – UK trade talks.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1200094412631662593.html

    “There’s no doubt from the documents about the US number one interest – removing the UK from the EU food standards system. It comes up clearly in the readout of the 4th round, but that wasn’t the first mention 2/”

  37. dandelionwine

    It’s been astonishing so far. They are so far up the Tories’ @rses they don’t even know they are just spouting their sh1t.

  38. @ ric

    “Cons have had a good week for sure. Benign polls and Boris you have to say pulled a blinder on This Morning with the selfie.”

    Fasinating psephological post and extremely exciting to boot. I can barely think of an election where the Conservatives will do better. I think Johnson taking a selfie with the This Morning cast is going to result in an absolute landslide. Thank you very much for your contribution.

  39. @”. The drawback is that he has seemingly revealed the bulk of the content of the proposed “grilling”. ”

    I don’t think you got the message. That was a list for viewers of the awkward questions which they won’t hear Johnson answering. Its a sort of second best with AN telling us what BJ is afraid of.

    A version of the empty chair-but with the interview.

  40. Lewblew

    I had missed that incisive comment you refer to.

    Unfortunately, I always read your interesting comments, so am now aware of it.

  41. Nick P

    That comment is rather appropriate for a cesspit. :-)

    Colin

    I agree with your interpretation of Neil’s monologue. I also agree with Dandelion Wine that the BBC has been rather stung by the criticism – and may have resolved not to be so damned obvious in future.

  42. If you are going to call it a cesspit you can’t expect much else really.

  43. @OLDNAT

    I suspect the difference in weights is due to the changing composition of the SNP vote. It would have been a lot more Leave-y in 2016 Holyrood than it was in 2017 WM (or indeed now). The number of Leavers overall in the poll is up-weighted a bit (284–>300) while the number of Remainers is down-weighted (572–>536).

  44. Umm, Andrew. There is only one thing you have to interrogate Boris about, for 30 minutes: you say that you’ll get Brexit done. But really, you’ll just be getting Brexit started. There are years of more rubbish ahead.

  45. I honestly don’t believe there is all this BBC bias. Just two weeks back there was accusations that Swinson and Boris got a far tougher audience in the BBC debate than Corbyn & Sturgeon, now it seems it’s Labour supporters saying the BBC are bias.

    I suspect it’s one of those things where both sides of the political spectrum think they are hard done by in that confirmation bias type way. The media are always a nice easy target vs introspection.

  46. I think the BBCs reporting is very weak and I think it has had a very poor election. For quite a long time the BBC seem to have preferred keeping the details away from us and instead they give us quite superficial coverage, which in turn means that the serious issues at play in this election are not being covered properly.

    The parties may prefer that we don’t cover them but the BBC should not be manipulated so much as they seem by the parties.

  47. Re Andrew Neil

    I havn’t watched much Johnson in this election but the “great communicator” comes across as inarticulate & at a utter loss re detail.
    As far as the Neil interview is concerned, I think Johnson is like a stupid & lazy candidate about to take an exam.

    You can give him a copy of the questions well ahead of time & he/she will still fail!

  48. Someone joked that the only TV program where an expert is allowed to give his opinion is Strictly. Its a joke but it rings true.

    On brexit there is near consensus among the economics profession that the Conservative plan for Brexit is the most damaging of the alternatives both in the short run but particularly in the long run. The BBC are not likely to have a serious discussion of this, in which this is presented as a consensus professional position. Rather they would prefer to go to Stoke on Trent or Grimsby and get some random person in the High Street to give a totally vacuous point of view.

  49. It’s such a shame the Tories have reduced the BBC to pleaing with them to do an interview. With a Tory majority, in the next few years we say goodbye to the original public broadcasting service.

    Goodbye Hancock, the Goons, Fawlty, Dr Who (may live on with adverts), Dad’s Army, Python, Blue Peter, the Archers, Desert Island Discs, Today, Morecambe and Wise, Wallace and Gromit, Only Fools and Horses, Blackadder, Ab Fab, Porridge, Alan Partridge, Steptoe, Red Dwarf, HIGNFY, Brittas…. the Magic Roundabout etc etc etc.

    Most of the above wouldn’t have been made without you. It could’ve, but probably not’ve.

    Any news on polling?

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