The mid-week polls so far are below:

SavantaComRes (25th-26th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(nc)
YouGov/Sky/Times (25th-26th) – CON 43%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 13%(-3), BREX 4%(+1)
ICM/Reuters (22th-25th) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 4%(-1)
Kantar (21st-25th) – CON 43%(-2), LAB 32%(+5), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 3%(+1)
Survation/GMB (20th-23rd) – CON 41%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(+2), BREX 5%(nc)

Taken individually, almost all the changes in these polls are within the margin of error (Kantar is the only exception). However, looking at them as a group there is a clear trend, with every poll showing a slight drop in Tory support and a slight increase for Labour. Taken together it’s clear there’s been a slight narrowing of the race though, of course, that still leaves a Conservative lead between 7 and 11 points. As usual, it is almost impossible to ascribe specific causes to this.

As well as the standard polls this week, YouGov published their MRP model. MRP is a method of using a large national sample to project shares at smaller geographical areas – in this case Parliamentary constituencies. By modelling how different demographics vote in seats with different characteristics, and then applying that model to each constituency, the MRP model produces vote shares for each individual constituency and, via that, projects seat totals for each party. Famously the YouGov MRP model projected a hung Parliament in 2017 when most people expected a Conservative majority.

The model this time is less surprising – it projected national vote shares of CON 43%, LAB 32%, LDEM 14%, BREX 3% (so very much in line with YouGov’s traditional polling), and seat numbers of Conservative 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, Liberal Democrat 13. This represents a Conservative majority of 68, much what we would expect to find on those shares of the vote (though the detailed projection is interesting, with the Conservative gains coming largely in the North and the urban West Midlands, with notable gains in West Bromwich, Wolverhampton and Stoke). Full details of the MRP model are here.

Finally this week, we’ve seen what is only the second Scottish poll of the campaign, this time from Ipsos MORI. Topline figures with changes from the 2017 election are CON 26%(-3), LAB 16%(-11), LDEM 11%(+4), SNP 44%(+7). Tabs for that are here.


724 Responses to “Midweek polling update”

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  1. @Alec

    By and large I’m with you on Americanisms; a goodly proportion are lazy or sheer ugly.

    However “outages” is actually useful. “Cuts” and “failures” are too general as terms to normally be used without further context added (after all, I suffer plenty of cuts and failures myself, without going near a computer!). “Outages” is specific and standalone.

  2. @NickP

    Thanks for the cookie advice. Done that and it’s fine now. I’d been able to log in on my phone, but not laptop, and I find the laptop much better for writing posts.

    As to your useful current polls/last 2017 polls comparison, one thing that strikes me seems under-discussed here.

    The current LD VI is a remarkably uniform 13% across your comparisons. In 2017, the four pollsters you use showed an average LD VI of 8.5%.

    The usual reaction to this tends to be, “ah, more LD VI still available to be squeezed by Labour.” But an alternative way of looking at his is, “ah, plenty of Con Remain VI available to be mopped up by LDs”.

    There are surely plenty of Con voters torn between their party allegiance and their remain preference. Many of them may also have increasing reservations about Johnson’s fitness to govern.

    While very few of those will presumably switch to backing JC, the LDs seem a more plausible recipient of queasy Tories’ votes.

    That, of course, would depend in part on effective or at least less bad LD campaigning in the ome stretch, and that seems unlikely. But it could also be the result of Johnson looking progressively less credible.

    From a Lab point of view this would be quite positive. If the Heineken effect means LDs can take 3 or 4% off Cons that isn’t available to Labour, than that would be quite a game changer.

    None of this is necessarily likely, but I shall be watching with interest for signs of a late transfer of VI from Con to LD.

  3. Had to set up a new account after wiping all my cookies! At least john34 actually reflects my real age!!

  4. One of the victims, Jack Meritt, seems to have been a very good person with great ideals. He participated in an initiative where students and prisoners learn together in joint classrooms and you can listen to him here:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00035vj

    Clearly from his father’s comments he would not be in favour of the type of response we are getting from Patel and Johnson.

    The contrast between the sort of values that Jack Meritt stood up for, according to his father, and the type of politics represented by Mr Johnson could not be more stark.

  5. Jack Meritt can be heard about 9 minutes in.

  6. Good morning all from a sunny Winchester.

    Looking at the polls Labour looked to have clawed back some of the Tory lead. Too little too late?

    The Lib/Dems must be bitterly distraught at their polling. Just a few weeks ago Go Jo was on a crash course to become PM, now she looks to be on a car crash in the opinion polls.

    A lot can change but I’m sensing the country is in no mood to give BoJo a huge mandate to govern.

  7. @John33
    ‘LD held Colchester from 1997 – 2015. I suspect it’s a constituency which may be more likely to return to previous voting habits.’

    I rather doubt that.There is little sign of Portsmouth South reverting to the LDs despite having been held by the Alliance /LDs 1984 – 87 and 1997 – 2015 – a Labour Hold looks far more likely. I also believe that Labour are the stronger anti-Tory options in Kensington – Southport – Wimbledon – Finchley &Golders Green – Cities of London & Westminster – and Watford.

  8. https://twitter.com/JackmerrittJack

    Just looking at Jack Meritt’s twitter it is clear he is very focused on injustice and helping the underdog. An inspiring young man and his father can be rightly proud from what I can see.

    The innocent victims of terrorism are just ordinary people you would never know about. When I grew up in a community with terrorism in Northern Ireland it was often inspiring to learn about the lives of people out there doing good in the world who were its unfortunate victims.

  9. Graham

    “I also believe that Labour are the stronger anti-Tory options in Kensington – Southport – Wimbledon – Finchley &Golders Green – Cities of London & Westminster – and Watford.”

    I also think so (don’t know Southport or Watford). The Lib Dems have put high profile people in some of these places which I think was not very helpful to tactical voting. But I think people should go mainly on what happened in 2017 which was not long ago.

  10. HAL
    The tone here is a lot more civil since yesterdays Great Outage.

    Also, a few people seem to be missing. Has AW banned them?
    ____________

    Oh this sounds traumatic!! Russian bots I bet…

    Personally I don’t comment on UKPR as much as I used to simply because I’ve become a dad and spend less time on online forums to spend time with mini me and… cough, watching champions elect Liverpool and only occasionally comment on UKPR when at work where I used to comment quit a lot.

    The higher the ladder you climb the less UKPR time.

  11. New thread.

  12. You just tickled my conspiracy muscle with the ‘outage/cut/failure’ thing.

    Anyone able to remember timeline of London Bridge incident and these site things happening.

    Maybe it was capacity related, as half of London/SE went on the Internet.

  13. russian bots gone?

    Alas poor Howard & Trevs – have they really gone to the great cyber warehouse in the sky?

  14. @CB11
    ‘Interestingly, they weren’t too far out with the eventual Tory figure of 42%, probably overestimating it a bit, but they were all quite a way out underestimating Labour’s final vote of 40%.’

    The actual GB figures in 2017 were Con 43.5% Lab 41%.

  15. I thought they were 42.4% and 40.0%?

  16. Neither Marr nor Johnson did well in that interview.

    Both Corbyn and Johnson now seem liabilities for their parties. The BBC interview will be interesting. I doubt if it can change the opinion of some Labour leaning voters about Corbyn. Is it possible for him to indicate a post GE resignation with a shadow cabinet commitment to all of the manifesto?

  17. @Crossbat

    I absolutely agree that the intolerance/borderline emnity goes in both directions. I only made the point that despite being neutral in terms of polling expertise, AW does have his own political identity and having that identity be the subject of abuse on his own site must be galling. Of course it would be the same for someone who was a Labour supporter.

    As to the gaming, I expect I am every bit as bad as your son…

    @Statgeek,

    Discord is great. I’m not sure what your issue is with 3rd party software. To me the entire internet is basically made up of the stuff. You must have a very narrow, browser based online world!

  18. Adam,
    “Granted 2017 GE was only 2.5 years ago but the circumstances are quite different – different Con leader, known Lab leader this time, different policies on both sides, and even just the water under the bridge in the last 2.5 years.”

    Sorry, I dont get that at all.

    Last time a new con elader, this time a new con leader.
    Con called the election both times to get a majority to get brexit done. Had a hard leave program both times. Both con leaders then and now arent coming up to campaigning expectations.

    Labour leader was widely disliked, then and now. Lab policy was to negotiate a good deal for leaving, but not support leaving unless there was a good deal. Now its to negotiate a new deal, and then decide (this time by ballot) if it is good enough to leave. Dont see whats changed.

    May talked about softening austerity. Lab talked about significantly rolling it back. Same now. Con attacked lab for economic incompetence, and its leader personally for all sorts. Libs were always remainish. Ukip vote collapsed and transferred to con.

    What ellse? The percentage of remainers amongst voters has increased, which one might suppose disfavours con. The slow tide of voters aging and being replaced has moved on a little, with the average age of con voters continuing to rise, as they fail to attract the youth vote. Something which slowly difavours con and leave.

    Water under the bridge….3 years of failing to deliver brexit, and 9 years of austerity with critical shortages in care services becoming more apparent. No clear recovery from the 2008 crash despite more than 10 years passing, mostly under con rule. if there need to be changes to policing or immigration, shouldnt they have been done by con by now? Sounds like water under the bridge should favour lab.

    Opposed, yes, Corbyn lost his novelty value, but whoever was lab leader would be under character attack, consistent normal pattern.

    Jonesinbangor,
    “Remember that even a small majority puts Johnson in an infinitely better position than beforehand.”

    May started with a small majority….

  19. Quiet in the cesspit this evening.

  20. @NeilA

    “You must have a very narrow, browser based online world!”

    You must be very trusting of unnecessary 3rd party software, and use countless tools to achieve not much more. (Just to turn it back on you :D )

    As a former IT auditor, and someone with no tolerance for spam, ads, bloatware, bling etc. you might expect me to be less inclined to change things for change’s sake. Change must add something <> to the experience.

    I don’t reach for the first app when I want to try something new. I consider the source and consider the purpose and the value vs need.

    My real objections are two fold.

    – As already stated, 3rd party software, when an Internet forum works just as well. The only real impediment tends to be keeping an updated browser.

    – Discord is essentially a chat/voip room for gamers; not a forum for people exchanging thought out views on a subject that all too often gets heated*.

    Imagine the yaa-boo stuff happening in real-time. No Thanks!

    A more fitting solution (imho) would be:

    AW posting in a blog;

    Comments are directed to a specific thread in a sectioned forum (with heavy moderation to prevent partisan efforts);

    Other sections allow for more ‘robust’ debate and off topic stuff to keep most people happy, such as the four nations’ polling, EU polling, local authority polling, International etc.

    A dropbox/onedrive** esc option for spreadsheet/chart sharing, which would be a bit heavier, but with logins/trusted edit members only, less problematic than everyone having separate spreadsheets with the same data a lot of the time.

    In essence, I’m in favour of a UKPR solution, rather than a single option that does lots of things that we don’t need, but not the things we might want.

    *Don’t get me wrong. Discord is a great tool in its own right. I just don’t see it as a replacement for people discussing things in a forum environment. Reddit might be a more fitting option.

    **I’m not suggesting everyone have a paid account for one of these products, but outlining that a solution that keeps most happy could be sought.

  21. I should add, that in a past election, I setup a temporary chat room so that folk could banter about and keep the UKPR forum/server less heavily loaded on election night. Twenty folk all posting:

    “Ed Balls loses” and using up half a page of forum text was a bit much. :D

    @All

    If folk fancy a chat room for the election night this time, I’m happy to do it. I imagine the forum might be a little hectic.

  22. I hope Anthony doesn’t close the comments section down, but, if he does, I’m up for an alternative, but, wouldn’t consider something where you would need to download 3rd party software.

    Along with the risk of malware/bloat, you lose control and cannot customise.

    In short, my Firefox, my web, my way.

  23. @Anyone reading this

    There’s been a site hiccup and cookies might be misbehaving. Suggest everyone clears their cookie for UKPR (or just clear all cookies, per the usual method), and perhaps logs out and in. There’s been a new thread for a day or two, and some may not be seeing it, or seeing updates to it.

  24. @Danny

    “May started with a small majority….”

    Indeed. She gambled away a half decent hand.

    Mind you, had she not, we’d be looking at a May 2020 election now and no Xmas election.

    Boris doesn’t have much to lose really and a lot to gain.

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