YouGov shows biggest Brown boost so far
YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has voting intention figures, with changes from YouGov’s last poll, of CON 32%(-1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 16%(+1). The changes from the last poll, conducted only four days previously, are insignificant, but it is the largest Labour share of the vote this Parliament and the largest Labour lead since the immediate aftermath of the last election.
If repeated at a general election then on a uniform swing it would result in the Conservatives losing a handful of seats, despite boundary changes in their favour. On the subject of a snap election, I remain convinced that Gordon Brown won’t go to the country this year, since the strong showing in the opinions polls can’t be sustained enough in the short time available before a decision needs to be made. However, there must come a point when the sheer size of his lead could outweight that. If he had a lead in double figures for a couple of weeks then even if it was soft and crumbled during an election campaign, he would have lots of space for it to crumble and still leave him with a majority.
Cameron’s figures are down sharply, possibly reflecting a negative public reaction to his trip to Rwanda which was in the media when the poll was being conducted between Monday and Wednesday. The proportion of people backing Cameron as the best PM has fallen 4 points to 19%, giving Brown a 18 point lead. The percentage of people thinking Cameron has been a good leader has dropped to 27%, wioth 43% thinking he hasn’t – this is almost a direct reversal of the result the last time YouGov asked this question back in February.
As I mentioned in the last post, there is still a sharp difference between positive opinions of Gordon Brown, who enjoys a net approval rating of plus 7 as Prime Minister, and negative opinions of the government, whose net approval rating is at minus 25. It’s been a lot lower (at some points in the last year it reached minus 43), but the difference is largely down to some point who had been giving negative answers switching to don’t know, in other words, giving the government a change. The obvious explanation is that Labour’s positive position in the polls at the moment is based on Gordon Brown, he hasn’t yet transferred that popularity onto the government or the Labour party.
Meanwhile there was a second YouGov poll carried out for Channel 4 earlier in the week that again asked voters to place party leaders and parties on a political spectrum, from far-left, fairly left-wing, slightly left of centre, centre, etc, etc and then uses it to place them on a numerical scale from left to right, with -100 being very right wing and +100 being very right wing.
Up to now the results of questions like this have been very stable, but for the first time perceptions of the Conservative party have started to shift – on average people placed them at +46 on the scale, the three previous times YouGov have asked this question the Conservatives were +52, +50 and +53. Cameron himself has also shifted towards the centre at +28, compared to +33, +35, +34 in previous polls.
Perceptions of Gordon Brown and the Labour party remain almost static since the questions were asked last month, with Labour at -22 and Brown at -25, compared to -22 and -26 last month. This means that Brown and Cameron are now seen as almost equidistant from the political centre, although their parties are not – the Conservatives are seen as to the right of Cameron, Labour are seen as more centrist than their leader).
Filed under: Conservatives, Labour, Voting Intention, YouGov
Anthony.
You say that Labour would pick up a ‘few ‘ Tory seats if they actually achieved a 9% lead in an early GE. On the changed boundaries Labour would get an overall majority of roughly 45 on a repeat of 2005, as I recall. A three per cent swing Tory to Labour would surely mean more than a ‘few’ gains wouldn’t it at least from the notional figures.
Of course we all know the perils of UNS but I’m not sure of any other basis for making a calculation at this time. I should add that I don’t expect Labour to win by 9% if they go in October but I’d rate their chances pretty high of getting a solid working majority if they go then.
If they wait until May next year David Cameron will have the opportunity to stage a recovery at the Party Conference and by next Spring the lead could be much lower. If that is the case why go on a 3-4 lead when you refused October because a 7 point lead in September wasn’t ‘good enough’.
You’re then looking at a lateish option of May 2009, not out of choice because you miscalculated in 2007.
Since I have no doubt that Brown’s strategy is to present this period as a prologue to a ‘first Brown term’ he will find that harder to achieve the later he goes.The bounce will disappear and it will look more and more like the fag end of the third term instead.
I have no doubt that Labour are seriously planning for going early, not late and despite the usual dishonest spinning in the Press an October election is very much a live option.
I have been looking at the Telegraph website and feedback from readers on the poll, the vast majority seem to be attacking Cameron and all of them seem to be Tory supporters. Maybe Cameron has become the Tories biggest problem, when IDS was getting low ratings the Tories managed to replace him but maybe too late to have any big effect on the election, could it be that the Tories are stuck on 33% for many many years to come or can they reinvent themselves for real?
I was thinking that myself after reading comments on various stories about David Cameron’s woes. Hardly anyone seems to have a good word to say about him, other than a few people saying things along the lines of “we have no other choice”. Also I understand that William Hill have opened a book on the next Conservative leader.
Certainly he will have to make an impressive speech at his party conference, assuming he lasts that long.
blue moon – on a uniform swing the Conservatives would get 192 seats on these shares of the vote. I forget what they’ve got at the moment, it’s something like 197 or 198 though, so they’d have around about a handful fewer.
From recent polls, I think the Lib Dems will lose a few seats to the Conservatives and they in turn will lose a few more to Labour. A bit like the 2001 election but in reverse.
Despite the superficial attraction of going for a snap election which could, on current polls, deliver a working majority, I agree with Anthony that Brown will hold out. On the other hand, Blue Moon is right to point out that presentational difficulties would arise the longer he hangs on, in particular if he holds out into 2009 and faces bad local / EU election results.
Gary / Keith
You will find that much of the criticism of Cameron in Telegraph on-line comments comes from regular posters who appear committed to UKIP (or even BNP). This has become a forum for anoraks and does not reflect genuine Tory feelings.
So long as Cameron keeps his nerve over the summer and sticks to publication of policy forum reports at Conference, Tory support should start to firm up again in the autumn polls.
The party with the greatest difficulty would appear to be Lib Dems who continue to poll in mid teens or below. While one or two % either way can make a difference between having / not having a majority or being largest party for Labour and Conservatives, losing 25-30% of your support – as is the case for LDs since 2005 – spells disaster. Put in context, the proportionate loss of vote share for LDs is of the same order of magnitutde as that suffered by Tories between 1992 and 1997 when Tories lost half their seats.
On current form LDs will lose seats on both flanks (and to SNP in Scotland). Their strong localised performances could save some seats, but recent council & MSP/AM results, plus their failure to achieve significant swings in latest by-elections, could spell trouble for Ming.
Cllr Paul Hodgson-Jones, sorry I should have said, I was just using the Telegraph as an example, looking at some of the blogs on the left tells a similar story, as does the press and I am also hearing the same thing from people at work, many of them life time Tories, none of them have a good word for Cameron. The only other source I have is from the polls and they too say the same thing.
“Also I understand that William Hill have opened a book on the next Conservative leader”
Intersting to see that the favourite is William Hague, given how his 2001 campaign was so villified not least by advocates of the Cameron ‘project’.
They have him at 9/4 – next favourite is David Davis on 5/1 – reckon that would be worth a bet as it’s likley party members would then realise they made a mistake two years ago and try to get the result they should have had then.
If the polls look good for Labour in Mid-September Brown should call a snap election for 13th of October, YES a Saturday for maximum turnout.
I believe the worst result for Labour would be overall majority of 50 seats.
Labour 37.5% 350 seats, Torys 34.5% 223 seats, Liberials 20% 47 seats.
This is the worst result I can see for Labour.
The next election could then be in October 2012 with an big bounce for the ruling party after the Big O London 2012.
Labour could be in power till 2017.
Labour Party finances might be a problem for an early election.
Some how I doubt the bounce will last until September, as the higher interest rates will start to bite, especially for the two million due to come out of fixed rates this and mext month, who will see the rate change from 4.5% to 6.5%. This in turn will start to hurt the retail & leisure sector etc.
I also think the Tories will put clear blue water between them and Labour on things such as ID cards, Road Pricing, a referendum on the EU treaty and a proper border police force (not the botch job just anounced).
One other thing, everyone is saying how bad things are for the Tories, yet they forget to mention the 900+ councillors they gained just a few months ago when millions voted, seeing a near collapse of the Lib Dem vote and the Labour vote stagnate.
Gary: I am a Tory, who voted for Cameron to become leader, who supported him actually since before we lost the last election . . . and I still do. I still think he’s doing a good job and will be a good PM one day. So not everyone is against him. The Telegraph comments have been full of UKIP anti-Europe, anti-Cameron posts always. Even when Cameron was polling the best polling results for the party since before we won the 1992 election (not that long ago those polls) the posts on that site were no different to they are now.
Its a bounce, they happen. The only thing that will matter is if as Anthony said last thread people let the polls become the news and change things as a result.
The problems going to be that Parliament’s in recess, no PMQs etc . . . there’s little chance to make any serious politics until Conference season.
One of the highlights of this poll was the questioning of the public on recent policy announcements. The thing that stood out for me was the fact that all the Labour policies got good rave reviews and the Tory “small amount of policies” as Mr King called them got poor results.
Is this not what the press have been saying for a while that Conservatives are struggling to get any policies together that people can take seriously and are therfore falling behind in the polls.
Is it a Brown boost or an anti-Blair pick-up?
Working on the idea that govts lose elections are we just really looking at the idea that with the tainted (Iraq etc) Blair gone we are quite happy with a rightwing Labour leader (especially now grovelling in the USA) so there is no reason to get rid of him.
Jack
Gordon Brown is a cautious man. He’s also a somewhat moral person, more so anyway than the previous incumbent. Of course, he is also a politician, and will be doubtless be tempted by a run of good polls. Nevertheless, I think he has a strong of duty and I believe this means he will want to wait until he has something to show for his time in office before calling an election. In other words, 2009.
I wonder how real this bounce actually is.
We have a slight Brown bounce which was expected, more because he’s not Blair than anything, which caused some parts of the chattering classes to go into ‘Cameron in trouble’ mode. This then produces these sort of poll results.
As for the anti Cameron posts on the Telegraph et al, never trust anyone who says ‘I used to be a Tory/Lib Dem/Labour supporter but with Cameron/Brown/Campbell as leader…’
Jack and Ralph have a good point; the Brown bounce may be down to Blairs departure as well as to Browns arrival. A big bit of the bounce may also be due to the end of the Cameron honeymoon. All three factors in the bounce, I am sure, will be welcomed by Brown. It will be interesting to see if Brown goes over the 9% mark. Anyone have any idea when the next poll is due? We live in interesting times!!!
One of the greatest problems for the Conservative party is that their supposed supporters in the media, or at least the most strident (that is, the Daily Mail/Express)appear, to so many people, (especially younger people) just plain daft.
So having associated barmy and unsupported views from the Mail/Express with modern Conservatism they reject the Tories. remember, whether we like it or not, 30% of young people go to some form of University now where unsupported rubbish and legends will be punished in their marks – the Mail and the Express are to these new educated people, Conservatism.
I think at the moment the main gainers between Brown and Cameron are the BNP. Brown is being a bit more aware of the political climate than Cameron.
It would help the Tories if they had an authentic hard man to take on Brown.Bring back Norman Tebbitt – tested by IRA bombing and still in one piece.
Most students in Norwich are Chinese so dont vote. This is why the Labour Party in Norwich campaign against the local university.
Gordon Brown should hope there’s not going to be a repeat equivalent of the Winter of Discontent which brought down the last Labour Government after they had been ahead in the polls.
It will also be interesting to see if the Conservative policy reports due for publication before the end of August will have any long-lasting impact. Apparently one of the reports runs into over 600 pages which could be the “substance” that swing voters have been waiting for.
I did notice Conservative MP Graham Brady attacking David Cameron over their alleged inability to make progress in the North and Midlands, wherein vital marginal seats are needed in order to form the next government. Does this mean that, as mentioned at the last general election and elsewhere, that the Conservatives are stuck with being a regional party? Or is it just Graham Brady getting ready to join UKIP?
I am not surprised at “labours” lead i think most people still don`t trust the Conservative party,we had 18 years of the “bigots”,and no doubt if they were ever to gain power they would stop the tax credits,and start blaming the low paid for societies ills!,i hope we never see these “bigots” again