Here are the mid-week polls so far:

Kantar – CON 45%(+8), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 16%(-1), BREX 2%(-7)
YouGov/Times/Sky – CON 42%(-3), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc)
ICM/Reuters – CON 42%(+3), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 13%(-2), BREX 5%(-3)
Survation/GMB – CON 42%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, BREX 5%

A few things to note. Kantar and ICM have now removed the Brexit party as an option in the seats where they are not standing, which will have contributed to the increase in Conservative support and decrease in Brexit party support (YouGov had already introduced this change last week).

The Survation poll is the first telephone poll that they’ve conducted in this election campaign (all their other recent polls have been conducted online), hence they’ve recommended against drawing direct comparisons with their previous poll. The fourteen point Tory lead in this poll is substantially larger than in Survation’s previous poll, which had a lead of only six points, but it’s impossible to tell whether that’s down to an increase in Conservative support or the different methodology. At the last election their two approaches produced similar results, with their final poll being conducted by phone.

Finally, Kantar’s polling has received some criticism on social media for their approach to turnout weighting, with “re-weighted” versions of their figures doing the rounds. The details of this criticism are wrong on almost every single measure. It’s very easy for people to retweet figures claiming they show the turnout figures from Kantar, but it takes rather longer to explain why the sums are wrong Matt Singh did a thread on it here, and RSS Statistical Ambassador, Anthony Masters, has done a lengthier post on it here.

In short, the claims confuse normal demographic weights (the ones Kantar use to ensure the proportion of young and old people in the samples matches the figures the ONS publish for the British population as a whole) with their turnout model. Secondly, they compare youth turnout to early estimates straight after the 2017 election, when there have been subsequent measures from the British Election Study that were actually checked against the marked electoral register, so are almost certainly more accurate. Compared to those figures, Kantar’s turnout levels look far more sensible. The figures do imply a small increase in turnout among older voters, a small drop amongst younger votes, but nowhere near the level that has been bandied about on social media.

However, if we leave aside the specific criticisms, it is true to say that turnout has different impacts on different pollsters. In the 2017 election many pollsters adopted elaborate turnout models based on demographic factors. These models largely backfired, so pollsters dropped them. Most polling companies are now using much simpler turnout models, that have much less of an impact, and which are based primarily on how likely respondents to the poll say they will vote.

Kantar is the exception – in 2017 they used a model that predicted people’s likelihood to vote based on both how likely they said they were to vote, but also their past voting and how old they are. Unlike many other companies this worked well for them and they were one of the more accurate polling companies, so they kept it. That does mean that Kantar now have a turnout model that makes more difference than most.

Looking at the polls at the top of this post, factoring in turnout made no difference to the lead in YouGov’s poll (it was a 12 point Tory lead before turnout weighting, a 12 point Tory lead afterwards). The same is true of Survation – their poll would have had a 14 point lead before turnout was factored in, and a 14 point lead afterwards. In ICM’s poll, without turnout the lead would have been 7 points, with turnout it grows to 10 points. With Kantar’s latest poll, the tables suggest that the turnout weighting increased the Tory lead from 10 points to 18 points.

Hence, while the specific claims about Kantar are nonsense, it is true to say their turnout model has more impact than that of some other companies. That does not, of course, mean it is wrong (turnout is obviously a significant factor in elections). However, before going off on one about how important turnout weighting is to the current polls, it’s rather important to note that for many companies it is contributing little or nothing to the size of the Tory lead.


1,091 Responses to “Latest voting intention and the impact of turnout”

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  1. M Bruno

    SCon has risen as the VI lost to BxP/UKIP has returned.

    The fundamentals of Scottish politics haven’t changed much – except for the continuing collapse of SLab.

    If England continues to reject Labour (as seems inevitable, unless ELab becomes a “Lib Dem” party again) then SLab’s VI seems likely to continue to reduce towards irrelevance.

    As they learned in 2015, Scots UK Unionists can’t afford to split their vote across their 3 or 4 parties. In 2017, SCon became the dominant UK Unionist force, and little has changed since.

    Whether the current supporters of the UK Union remain content with what the Tories do to Scotland remains unknown – obviously.

  2. I think Labour will get less then 200 seats-but it would be funny if tactical voting gets Boris Johnson and Ian Duncan Smith voted out.

  3. Interesting commentary by Peter Kellner on variations in constituency polling in London and the difficulty of translating national poll results to seat predictions:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats

  4. While at this late stage things look rather depressing for those of us of a left leaning persuasion, who knows? Those leader approval ratings are showing some strong movements, albeit from a very stark starting point, and if memory serves, it was the leadership polling that presaged party VI in 2017.

    For me, the striking thing in this election is the deep loss of trust for the Conservatives. They are hoovering up the Brexit vote, but remove that factor and Johnson looks like being the least popular PM to ever win an election.

    This carries two potential consequences. Firstly, popularity and credibility are two things which politicians need to bank in the good years, and draw on when things get tough. This is the good year for Conservatives, and there’s nothing in the bank.

    Second, if Johnson gets his big majority, then Brexit becomes Conservative, from top to bottom. No one will recall or worry about the period from 2016- 2019. If the dream isn’t delivered in full, there is no one in the world left to take the blame.

  5. I agree it does not look good for Labour at the moment but there is a glimmer of hope. The Conservatives have pretty well drunk dry Brexit party votes and there is little more to be had there.

    Labour has increased it’s vote a little since the campaign started and has much bigger supply of potential swing voters from the lib-dems.
    In those seats where the lib-dems are competitive with the Conservatives they have a Labour well to call on

    Scotland still looks like it will be overwhelmingly SNP, again a good point for those of a remain in the EU inclination

    Having said all that there really needs to be some movement in the polls in the coming week if there is to be any realistic chance of stopping an overall Conservative majority

  6. @ MRBRUNO

    East Lothian will be interesting if the Labour VI collapses and the Perth and North Perthshire seat is ultra marginal.

  7. Tory manifesto info leaking out (mostly releaking old stuff)

    Most papers will have some spin but from the horse’s mouth:

    https://vote.conservatives.com/news/our-manifesto-gets-brexit-done-and-unleashes-the-potential-of-the-whole-country

    2c: Safe, bit dull

    – No “punches” to pensioners (triple lock, etc maintained)
    – Triple tax lock as well (politically sensible perhaps but it will mean debt goes up)

    and note £33.9 billion to the NHS by 2023-24 = £650million per week

    So Boris did l!e when he said £350million per week ;)

    Would be nice to see more about what he intends to do with “taking back control” (eg freeports, FAIR trade deals, some regulation changes (but not too many!!), etc) but probably best to keep it simples and on message

    Get Brexit Done

  8. Opinium tabs:

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-november-2019/

    Deltapoll’s new constituncy pools (all London) are up but not the new GB poll:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls-library

  9. I have previously argued on this site, that Cameron made a huge mistake in 2016 by nailing his colours to the Remain mast. If he had adopted a neutral stance, promising to implement the referendum result whichever way it went, things might look very different now.

    I cannot, therefore, criticise Corbyn for choosing to declare that he will remain neutral in the event that he is in a position to hold a second referendum.

    However, he has left it far too late, and should probably have said all this some time ago. The other parties will make capital out of his ‘deciding to be indecisive’, and he will now be perceived as a confirmed fence-sitter who has applied Gorilla Glue to the fence.

    It also brings Brexit back to the forefront of the issues in the election, something that CCHQ will be more than happy with. An OM of 50+ looks increasingly likely.

  10. Tory Fibs (Labour) suggests the BBC has doctored a part of the QT broadcast in order to cut the sound of people laughing at what Johnson said about being trustworthy.

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1198256391837929472

    Surely not

  11. The BMJ produced a piece about the NHS and intentions to further privatise it.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l2164

  12. Oh oh-here we go , here we go……….. ?

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1198376466024714240

  13. @ SCOTS – Has anyone done an analysis of the extra UK spending being promised by LAB or CON and how much EXTRA Scotland will get compared to England (ie the Barnett Formula impact)?

    LAB snuck the info in their grey book. I doubt CON will do the detailed maths but every person in Scotland will get more money per head than those in England do.

    Pretty sure the NATS will still m0an about it of course – not being treating as equals – don’t make me laugh

    Your getting more than you fair share – a lot more!! Be honest admit it.

    If you ever do Leave.UK then what will you have to m0an about and who will have to blame??

  14. Crossbat,

    School fair of the kids of some friends. A6 into Bakewell was bad, but certainly not queueing back to Matlock!

  15. @Trev

    I received nothing from UK Gov in the past 20 years that wasn’t earned by me or my nearest and dearest. I have claimed no benefits, used no free NHS (paid for the rare prescription I needed), and so on. I did take advantage of not paying CT on the unoccupied, unfurnished property pending its sale, but that was between me and my previous local authority.

    “You[‘]r[e] getting more than you[r] fair share”

    Have a free apostrophe, a surplus ‘e’ and a bonus ‘r’. Scotland is swimming in wealth don’tcha know? We can afford it. The free comprehensive education during Thatcher’s 1980s, with teacher strikes and little prospects came in useful after all. :D

  16. @ COLIN – It’s quite likely that Corbyn’s ratings will rise from rock bottom as a lot of Remainers were anti-Corbyn and now is “Neutral” on Remain v Remain ref then he’s going to improve amongst Remainers (and was rock bottom with Leave already so can’t really sink much lower there)

    It is also a good thing for CCHQ and CON VI not to become complacent. Manifesto looks “safe” (ie no Mayb0t “own goals” this time).

    As always I’ll suggest folks focus on the WHERE issue.

    If Corbyn is improving with Remain voters in safe LAB seats (or LDEM seats or even Scotland!!) then that won’t make much difference provided he is NOT improving where it does matter for Boris (CON’s own seats and all the LAB-CON marginals that May failed to win)

    The large MRP analysis is a tad worrying though. That shows LAB doing “less bad” than I’d expected. MIght be an issue with students being a bit smarter about where they vote?? (ie voting at mum+dad’s home address which is more likely to be a marginal than their uni address??) It’s also a shocker for LDEM which suggests it’s missing potential tactical voting boost for Remain??

  17. I have decided to avoid political shenanigans for the day (same as usual really), but have discovered an interesting puzzle game, which may interest some of the older techie geeks:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxJVH5TZQFY

    Should be slightly more interesting than polling methodologies and sampling sizes. If nothing else, it might sharpen the logic synapses. No really. :D

  18. @ STATGEEK – I’m aware your name is a joke but maybe some FACTS on the issue:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/devolution-at-20/public-spending-and-taxation

    It’s a bit out of the date but the trend is the same and will continue (with a “boost”) from 2020-24.

    As for: “Scotland is swimming in wealth don’tcha know?”

    :-) :-) :-)

    OMG. I heard the “Freedom Fuel” cr4p in 2014 but whatcha got now “Freedom Fish” – OOPS want to stay in EU (and CFP) so nope.

    You’ve clearly drunk the Salmond-Sturgeon “kool aid” and incapable of checking the numbers – we’ll find out on 12Dec how many other Scots can’t do maths.

    Independence would mean MASSIVE austerity for Scotland

    So good luck with that. Still you never know maybe Brussels will let you back into their Union with a 7%+ deficit??

    They do say the grass is greener…

  19. Looking at the four polls samples over the period 20-22 Nov.
    Rough Average.
    Cons 43.5%
    Lab 30%
    LD 14.5%
    BX 3%

    So, Cons polling about what they achieved in 2017 election and Labour down 11%. YouGov shows Boris doing better on the campaign than Corbyn which some will find surprising.

    Since 15th November there have been 14 polls all showing the Cons. Above 40% (range 41-47%). Overall the interesting thing to me is that the polls have actually shown very little change during the campaign, except possibly in Scotland where the latest polls seem to confirm a Cons recovery.

    Early days but the Labour manifesto seems to have had either no effect or possibly a negative effect if the Opinium poll is to believed. Judging by what I have read so far the Tory manifesto seems to me to be unlikely to have any great effect either way.

    Still 18 days to go and as a Conservative I am not at all complacent. There is a good piece in todays STel. By Prof Curtice which I hope Cons central office reads and digests.

    CATMANJEFF Many thanks for your analysis I always find it interesting.

  20. SLab to lose all but one seat In Scotland says Curtice.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18056912.first-scottish-election-poll-predicts-electoral-wipeout-labour-scotland/

    “SNP could see their sear count rise from 35 to 41, with support rising from 37% to 40%.

    The poll shows that the party only stands to lose North East Fife, which is the seat with the smallest majority in the UK after Stephen Gethins only secured two votes more than the Lib Dems in 2017.

    If the poll is accurate, support for Conservatives could also see a minor drop of 1% as the party is expected to lose just one Scottish seat.

    Stirling is predicted to move from Stephen Kerr to SNP MEP Alyn Smith.

    On the issues voters believe to be harmful to the UK, 37% of Scots said Scottish independence, with 39% saying the same of Brexit.

    Almost half of all those surveyed said Scottish independence would be a “good opportunity” for the country, at 45%, while just 24% said the same of Brexit.”

  21. TW

    @”It is also a good thing for CCHQ and CON VI not to become complacent.”

    It would be -I agree. Otherwise they might be like Gove on Marr ( just switched it off) being cocky & overconfident & missing what might be happening to VI

    @” Manifesto looks “safe””

    Labour’s Manifesto is way OTT-literally incredible. They write three paper thin fiscal rules-then McDonnell starts spraying more money not in the Grey Book.

    It looks like Cons have erred in the other extreme. There are major social issues which need addressing. The answer to May’s Social Care cock-up is not to have No policy-it is to have a credible one.

  22. I expect the Tory party have held back a number of big ticket expenditure items.

    Those tweets about “£2bn for tackling potholes” seem designed to lower expectations in advance so as to make the announcement seem like more of a surprise.

  23. @Valerie

    “I do enjoy reading your tales of pounding the street canvassing and your passion for football, although I find watching a match less interesting than watching paint dry :-)”

    Ah well, we agree on politics but not about the great game of football! Canvassing starts in earnest for me next week. I’ve done some leafletting and a little door-knocking, but have been helping my oldest son move house for the last week or so and that has limited what I’ve been able to do so far. My early forays have been in the phoney war period when it didn’t really seem that many voters were at all engaged with the election. Some Brexit and Corbyn grumbling, but mainly gripes about a Christmas election. For the last three weeks of the campaign, from hereon in effect, and now the TV debates and manifesto launches have taken place, I suspect the real stuff will start and people will be animated by it all. That great period when I expect a few doorstep altercations, some doors slammed in my face and maybe, you never know, some encouragement too. I’ll report back accordingly, as and when, and if I come through in one piece.

    Straw-clutching Part 3. McDonnell hinted at this in his Observer interview this morning, and some might say he would say it wouldn’t he, but I have had similar feedback from experienced Labour canvassers I trust too, that it doesn’t feel like the polls on the doorsteps. No great enthusiasm for Corbyn or Labour, but surprising distaste for Johnson. If that distaste for Johnson simmers on, and Labour can stir the pot a bit then, you never know.

    Keep the faith in Burnhamland in Manchester and if you see a 26 year old walking around in a Villa shirt, that’s probably my boy! Give him a thumbs up. He’s a young Labour voter!

    :-)}.

  24. Any fresh polls this morning?
    Have I missed anything?

  25. Good morning all from a rather grey looking PSRL

    There is definitely a gap in the market on this site for an optimistic Labour poster.

    I don’t think it is as bleak as some of the polls suggest, and with two and a half weeks to go there is still time for Labour to gain ground. There are signs that Corbyn is coming across relatively well in the air war – and Labour’s number advantage can make a difference in the ground war in key area.

    Personally, I think we will see Lab edge up to 35% in the next week. Their ability to go over that will depend on how much they can squeeze the LD vote on Brexit, and the extent to specific issues such as on women’s pensions appeals

  26. Surprised nobody has commented on Deltapoll net approval:

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/11/24/00/21382988-7718437-If_the_figures_for_party_support_were_translated_into_a_uniform_-a-5_1574556237194.jpg

    Full story here:
    https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-7718437/New-poll-gives-Johnson-13-point-lead-just-19-days-election.html

    Net approval ratings – last four weeks, getting more recent as you move right (Deltapoll)

    Johnson: +2, -5, +4, -10
    Corbyn: -43, -48, -43, -34

    Difference: 45, 43, 47, 24

    The difference (24) is much narrower in the last week than the 43-47 range in the previous three weeks. The change is statistically significant at standard significance levels used for hypothesis testing.

    Indeed the gap has been halved in the last week! This polling is largely before the effect of the manifesto and the Friday debates but after the Monday debate.

  27. Many Labour supporters will be looking at Scotland and wondering how they have allowed the Tories to do so well in a country whose people — as Gordon Brown points out, and to their credit – place so much value on social justice.

  28. I expect Tories to pull a “rabbit” out of the hat today in their Manifesto launch. A couple of expensive policies on public services that will go some way to match Labour.

    The “2bn for tackling potholes” tweet would have been to lower expectations and make the Tory rabbit into a surprise.

  29. CB

    “Straw-clutching Part 3. McDonnell hinted at this in his Observer interview this morning, and some might say he would say it wouldn’t he, but I have had similar feedback from experienced Labour canvassers I trust too, that it doesn’t feel like the polls on the doorsteps. No great enthusiasm for Corbyn or Labour, but surprising distaste for Johnson. If that distaste for Johnson simmers on, and Labour can stir the pot a bit then, you never know.”

    Although we never expect much from our canvassing here in Clacton, the Brexit capital of the United Kingdom, there is a bit of a similar story. Great distaste for Johnson, though here in Clacton that is more likely to translate into votes for the Independent Brexit candidate – or maybe the Monster Raving Loony Party. But, the overall feeling about Johnson and the Tories is quite encouraging!

  30. @ Oldnat

    “Those who support more Labour type of politics will find it depressing that Scots – once a source of solidarity – are now *flocking* to Boris Johnson’s Tory Party.”

    Yes it seems agreed on all sides that the Scottish Tories will make it even more likely that the Tories get a majority.

    But it was the SNP, not them, who forced the election, before all the possibilities of a Parliamentary control of Brexit had been tested. Johnson was empowered.

    I cannot remember their reasoning other, than immediate party political advantage.
    A delayed election may have led to a No Deal Brexit, but we may get that anyway given the timetable for various negotiations?

  31. @ SCOTS – When will SNP be launching their detailed “Indy” manifesto?

    I’m curious to see the numbers on a fully funded “Independent Scotland” and details on the different outcomes of future relationship talks with rUK[1]

    Given the c0ck up of Brexit and only sorting out what ‘Leave’ means after we’d held the ref then I assume SNP are not expecting Scottish voters to vote blind?

    I’ll checked on SNP’s website and can’t find any info?!? Given it’s not my polity or party then perhaps one of our Indy Scots can provide links to the numbers.

    [1] EG What happens in the event of a “No Deal” Indy? Given SNP want to rip up a CU+SM with their largest trading parter (rUK) then surely they’ve crunched the numbers and have produced an Economic Impact Assessment?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/scotlands-biggest-trading-partner-continues-to-be-rest-of-uk

  32. Apologies. Last quote was from Prof Howard

  33. RobbieAlive that quote was from me – you make it look like OldNat said it. I am sure OldNat would never utter such drivel!

  34. Thanks Robbie.

  35. @Norbold
    I haven’t been out all that much as yet (out again this afternoon) but I have been disappointed at the lack of disdain for Johnson. Our vote is generally holding up but we hear Corbyn mentioned negatively all the time. When I raise Johnson in response, sometimes pointing out his dishonesty, it is invariably greeted with a shrug, which I actually find quite astonishing.
    I suppose because I have tracked him for many years including his useless period as Mayor and his continuing mendaciousness I can’t understand why anyone would not see how bad he is.

  36. @ToH

    Many thanks for your kind words.

  37. @Trev

    Are these the same source that said that Scotland had created half of the UK’s debt? GERS data perhaps?

    All under UK management. We can trade twaddle all day based on WM data, London media, unionist sources, and all the other places you like to get data, or you can face up to the fact that all this data is based on UK management.

    Now we can rinse and repeat the same old ideas that didn’t work too well (but with no empire of the early 20th century, and not enough oil to keep you through later 20th century), or we can try different ways.

    Here’s another way to look at it. Stop trying to convince me that my country is doomed, and work out how your country will be saved after Brexit. Given the sheer determination of Westminster to prevent Scotland from leaving, and the fact that people like you are determined to tell me my country is doomed says it all.

    Drop us like the failed project we are…or maybe there’s some other reason. You could move the deterrent (Wales was favoured; never England), so that ain’t it.

    @Prof

    I posted why the Tories have stayed buoyant in Scottish polls earlier. Ex-Lab unionists, LD unionists, Brexiteers, fearties etc. They’re propping up the Tory vote in the main. Mostly older folk who still get their info from the MSM, and believe it.

  38. From James Kelly

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/11/first-full-scale-scottish-poll-of.html

    There’s also an independence question in the Panelbase poll, and it shows Yes support continuing to hold firm at an elevated level. 49% support for independence is several points higher than the average in Panelbase polls last year, and the one-point drop since the last poll is statistically insignificant.

    Should Scotland be an independent country?

    Yes 49% (-1)
    No 51% (+1)

  39. STATGEEK

    You appear to have encountered the stupid and nasty element of the Trev conglomerate.

    I would like to know if you have seen this? it describes the siphoning off of Scottish resources.

    https://financecurse.net/uncategorized/how-financialisation-worsens-britains-regional-divide/

    “In essence, this is a picture of a highly sophisticated financial mechanism for extracting wealth from police budgets in Scotland. Although the “capital value” of this police training centre was listed in official documents as £17 million, the government will end up spending £111 million over the 25-odd year repayment scheme. Not all that £94 million difference is unproductive wealth extraction – there are genuine financing and other costs involved – but probably more than half of it is.

    Once you start looking at the geography of this thing, a whole new picture emerges. Where are the ‘winners’ from this structure, the recipients of the extraction? And where are the losers, the ‘extracted-from’ people?…

    ..The losers? Well, in the case of this particular corporate tower, most of the losers are in Scotland.

  40. Deltapoll tabs:

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/general-election-2019-part-4

    NB Previously they were an “outlier” with highest CON lead, approval ratings for Boris, etc so a bit more “in-line” now. Tracker info from YG or Opinium is more stable on approval ratings etc but I note no one has posted that. From a partisan bias view then great to see Wail of Sunday is making sure CON VI don’t become complacent and GOTV on 12Dec ;)

  41. New thread.

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