Sunday polls round-up

Four voting intention polls in the Sunday papers.

YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 39%(+3), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc), BREX 10%(-1) (tabs)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 41%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 16%(+2), BREX 6%(-5) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 41%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 15%(-1), BREX 6%(-3) (tabs)
Panelbase – CON 40%(nc), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 8%(-1) (tabs)

In most cases changes are from last week, YouGov’s changes are from their midweek poll for the Times & Sky. All four show the upwards trend in Labour support continuing (though given some of them also show the Conservatives gaining support, we cannot say that the Tory lead is narrowing). All four also show support for the Brexit party falling, particularly in the Deltapoll and Opinium figures. Apart from one outlier in August, 6% is the lowest the Brexit party have recorded since the European elections.

Following on from my post about MRP in the week, the Observer also reports the topline results from a second MRP model, again carried out by an organisation campaigning for tactical voting – this time Gina Miller’s Remain United. The model currently predicts 347 Conservative seats, 204 Labour seats and 24 Liberal Democrat seats. In comparison the BestforBritain MRP results that Chris Hanretty scraped from their website seemed to imply a better showing for the Conservatives, with around 358 Conservatives seats and just 188 Labour and 19 Lib Dems (note that the Best for Britain model only covered England & Wales). The average vote shares in the Remain United model imply a Conservative lead of only around 6 points, so the difference in seat numbers may very well just be down to projecting a higher level of Labour support, rather than a different pattern of swings. For all the fuss about “rival tactical voting sites”, by my count there are only 13 seats where RemainUnited suggest voting Labour and BestforBritain suggest voting Lib Dem.

There is a methodological explanation on the remain united website here that says it is not actually an MRP model, but an RRP model, which is apparently “similar” to an MPR model (I don’t know what the technical differences are to the approach, but the explanation they give does indeed sound very similar). The model is based on a ComRes sample of only 6097 responses, significantly smaller than the 46,000 sample that Best for Britain used and the 50,000 or so samples that YouGov were using at the last election. There was a similar ComRes/ElectoralData RRP model for the European elections earlier this year which did not perform particularly well – while it got the share of Brexit party support correct, it overstated Labour support by 10%, understated the Greens by 6% and Liberal Democrats by 5%, which would be rather a problem is your aim is to work out which remain party is best placed to win in seats. That said, the data for their European election model was collected more than a week before polling day, and they may well have finessed the model since then.


1,483 Responses to “Sunday polls round-up”

1 17 18 19 20 21 30
  1. Alec
    A good thoughtful post on the likely break up of the UK.

    Straws in the wind…

    Cummings is on record as wishing Northern Ireland transported to the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

    The Tories have thrown SCon under the proverbial bus.

    The Tory manifesto, allegedly, will include ripping up an internationally sanctioned agreement on investigating ‘historical’ atrocities during the Troubles, nothing before 2000, apparently. ( red meat there for those who think the Troubles were all the fault of the Irish).

    The emergence of a de facto English Nationalist party (Conservative/ Brexit Party) with Farage as the mid-wife is startling in its rapidity, the country has a stark choice.
    As Akela would say, “Choose wisely oh my wolves”.

  2. @Goolie Tyke

    Your original post said the Siemens plant was being built (a) because of brexit and (b) would be building trains for export to Spain.

    Can you produce evidence to support those claims? Hitachi built a similar UK assembly plant for its Japanese-designed and mostly built trains, starting in 2013 well before brexit was a thing. What’s different about the Siemens decision? And why would Siemens use a simple assembly plant outside the EU to supply Spain, which has a very successful train building industry of its own?

  3. Northern Ireland poll released by Lucid Talk from Election Maps

    Westminster Voting Intention (NI):

    DUP: 28% (-1)
    SF: 24% (-1)
    ALL: 16% (-5)
    SDLP: 14% (+6)
    UUP: 9% (=)

    I

  4. I agree with @WB61 that it’s hard to see a shock in the Swansea area; Gower could of course go back to the Tories although their candidate there has managed to distinguish herself with the kind of lovely comments of the privileged towards benefit claimants.

    I also can’t see any of Cardiff’s safe labour seats going anywhere. Cardiff North is genuinely marginal and though I’d bet (a small amount) on Lab hold either result is clearly feasible but the other 3 are very safe. The only seats in SE Wales which might shift are Newport East & Bridgend (might go Tory) and the Vale (might go Labour) but I;’d go as far as saying that it’s the Tory loss, down to very specific issues around their candidate which is most likely. There will very likely be Tory gains from Lab in Wales but they’ll be in the north east

  5. @Cin C

    I’d suggest Newport West, rather than East. Is the likely Tory gain.

    Very surprised if Tories don’t make big gains based on current polls, but these are early days.

    Incumbency is always a big factor in Wales, which is why I do not think some seats may change, as well as the fact the Labour Party may well rally in Wales. The Tories are making a good of facilitating that with a shoot themselves in the foot campaign.

  6. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (+1)
    LDEM: 16% (-1)
    BREX: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via
    @ComRes
    , 11 – 12 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Nov

  7. It appears some folks are still confused about the different forms of democracy, so I’ll take 5mins and explain once again

    Plebiscite (direct) democracy v Representative democracy

    Examples of Plebiscite (direct) democracy:

    IndyRef (2014). Plurality of Scottish voters voted in a “once in a generation” Scotland only referendum for Scotland to stay part of UK

    EURef (2016). Plurality of Scottish voters voted in a “once in a generation” UK wide referendum for UK to Remain in EU (but UK as whole voted to Leave and MPs said they would honour the result)

    Both of those seem to have created a lot of division, uncertainty and dare I say chaos but I hope we’ve learned the lesson to avoid them in the futuree

    Examples of Representative democracy

    Holyrood’11: SNP win a majority and deliver on their manifesto promise to deliver IndyRef and UK parliament agreed

    GE’15: CON win a majority and deliver on their manifesto promise to deliver EURef (overwhelmingly supported by x-party MPs)

    Holyrood’16 : SNP lost an outright majority but form an “agreement” with SG (who also support Indy) and together they have enough MSPs to push for IndyRef2

    So how does Scotland become independent?

    EURef’16 was shortly after Holyrood’16 so I’m prepared to accept that Brexit was a big enough event for SNP+SG MSPs to demand IndyRef2 BUT as elected representatives then IMO they should also have the mandate to negotiate a “Tartan Divorce”

    Now, in the same way that GE’19 is a “People’s Final Say Vote” on Brexit then perhaps Holyrood’21 should be the “People’s Final Say Vote” on Indy Scotland (ie if Scots elect MSPs that want Indy then they get Indy – no need for a divisive ref and drawn out negotiations just announce an “oven ready” Indy policy a few months before Holyrood’21 and let the people decide if they want Nicola+Indy or TBD+Union)

    Sadly for English Independence then, CON seem to take the land border with Scotland and the word “Unionist” in their name as a reason to keep Scotland in the precarious Union but LAB seem less bovvered (unless Corbyn is on a 2day trip to Scotland and things U-turns go down well?). Hence it is possible that LAB+SNP agree the “Tartan Divorce” or two new refs (IndyRef2, EURef2)

    Swinson will probably do anything for a ministerial car and a red briefcase and has already backed a NAT in Wales so SLD is a pretty flakey Unionist vote these days – Orange Tories should still vote for actual Tories if an actual Tory could win their constituency (assuming they put Union before Indy) but actual unionists should be very wary of voting SLD as IMO Swinson can’t be trusted.

    So GE’19 is important (and it obviously comes before Holyrood’21). For Scottish voters then:

    If you want Indy = Vote SNP

    If you don’t = Vote SCON (and hope CON win an outright majority[1])

    Simples ;)

    [1] If CON can form a govt without Scottish MPs then.. well… all bets are off. I reckon Boris would put staying PM above keeping Scotland but I don’t have a time machine that can access parallel universes so we’ll wait and see… pretty easy to morph British jobs and taxes for British workers and public services into English jobs and taxes for English workers and public services but as I keep saying one step at a time and the sequencing is now set in stone (ie GE’19 first then we’ll see)

  8. On the Comres poll for the Daily Telegraph, further notes below:

    Savanta ComRes’ latest voting intention shows Conservatives in the lead with 40% of the vote, leading the Labour Party by 10 percentage points (40% vs. 30%) – our largest Conservative lead since before the 2017 election.

    We did make a slight methodological tweak to account for the Brexit Party not standing in half the seats – they didn’t appear in our main ‘prompt’.

    If the parties were to achieve these vote shares at a General Election, it would result in Conservatives having a majority of 110 (Con 380, Lab 194, LD 19, SNP 36, Brex 0, PC 2, Grn 1, source: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk)

    The Remain vote splitting more equally between Labour & Lib Dems is Labour’s biggest issue – the Leave vote overwhelmingly goes Conservative.

    Around half of British adults agree they feel they have a good understanding of the Conservatives, Lib Dems or Brexit Party’s Brexit Policy (53%, 49% and 48% respectively). Conversely, only a third (34%) agree they have a good understanding on Labour’s Brexit policy.

    Among 2016 Remain voters only two in five (40%) agree they have a good understanding of the Labour Party’s Brexit policy. Conversely three in five (62%) Leave voters agree they have a good understanding of the Conservative Party’s Brexit policy.

    British adults who voted Conservative in 2017 are more likely to say they would prefer a Conservative-led Government after next month’s election than those who voted Labour in 2017 would say about a Labour-led Government (80% vs. 67% respectively).

    All of the policies tested were relatively popular, besides holding a second Scottish Independent Referendum.

  9. Matt 126

    Those Northern Ireland figures must be a comparison to an earlier poll, but I am nit sure which one. If the latest figures from Lucid Talk are compared to GE2017, the movements are:

    DUP: 28% (-8)
    SF: 24% (-5)
    ALL: 16% (+8)
    SDLP: 14% (+2)
    UUP: 9% (-1)

    This would suggest that the SDLP should have a decent chance of taking Foyle back from SF. South Belfast looks a near certain loss for the DUP, but could go to either SDLP or Alliance. East Belfast should be close between DUP and Alliance on these figures, and North Down will also be DUP or Alliance (IMO).

  10. Anyone want to spend 2mins on wiki? Fill in the dates:

    First SNP MP: GE, 20XX

    First PC MP: GE, 20XX

    First UKIP MP: GE, 20XX

    Zero BXP MPs ever and for a bonus point then what does the UK bit of UKIP stands for (clue England starts with an E!)

    Sadly there is not an ENP (English Nativist Party) – we’re a bit slow to catch up with all the latest things down here but maybe one day we’ll catch this “trend” for Independence and copy the Celts.

    PS I’ve no issue with Wales staying part of (r)UK provided they understand how democracy works (ie if Welsh voters start voting for lots of MPs who want Wales to be independent (or stick with LAB who don’t seem to give a sh!t or LDEM who actively back PC anyway) then maybe English voters should look at what a great deal Wales has by being part of UK). So it’s pretty simple decision in Wales as well.

    If you want Indy Wales = Vote PC, LDEM or LAB

    If you want Wales to stay in UK = Vote CON

    PPS 1min on wiki did find the history of Welsh views on Independence (goes back to 2013) but please no more refs – if Welsh voters elect Indy MPs (and WA) and want a “Daffodil Divorce”[1] then I’ll be sad to see Wales go but it will mean more English taxes spent on English voters priorities so I’ll accept it if that is what the Welsh want.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_independence

  11. @JAMES E The DUP are hurt by Brexit stance and Sinn Finn By Westminster abstention? Seems a lot of remain types on both nationalist and Unionist side coalesce around Alliance?

  12. Bantams,

    Thanks for the Coms Res details. We may see a spate of last minute withdrawals by BXP candidates which might help the cons even more.

    The straw to clutch is that if so few votes understand Labour Brexit policy there is time for that to change and with it possibly some VI.

  13. Statgeek

    I point out the foolishness of using only UCAS data to compare HE entry in Scotland and England every year.

    It’s the same when comparing “4 hour wait” maximum in NHS Scotland and NHS England A&E.

    Here, the “4 hour clock” doesn’t stop until the patient is discharged or reaches the ward/clinic of destination. In England it stops when the decision is made to send the patient elsewhere. Hence “trolley waits” count as part of the 4 hours here, but not in NHs England.

    Both are perfectly reasonable ways to measure performance, but they are not comparable and only “[email protected]” like a former pupil of my old school, that Sneekyboy refers to in that tweet would do so.

    But more of Tom Harris later …..

  14. The Labour pledge to spend more on the NHS than the Cons seems a bit vague/tokenistic. Also, ideas like a 4 day working week – do many people even want that?
    They should really focus on (and hammer home) the stuff that is known to be popular with the electorate e.g. nationalising the railways (and utilities), increasing the tax contributions of the top 5%, extra bank holidays, etc.

  15. @Trevor

    “If you want Indy Wales = Vote PC, LDEM or LAB

    If you want Wales to stay in UK = Vote CON”

    Labour are a big friend of Unionism in Wales.

    Most Labour supporters in Wales are committed Unionists. Ditto Lib Dems.

    PC struggle to break through because of the language issue… the chip on the shoulder of many because they can’t siarad Cymraeg.

  16. @NEIL

    I agree. They are offering way too much. Lacks credibility and is perhaps too much for the public to asorb such a bonanza. They should have stuck to a few very popular policies, in my view anyway.

  17. jonesinbangor,
    “This is a realignment.
    We’re not Federalists. We want a close trading arrangement and a looser social arrangement. ”

    Really. Working conditions are nowadays part of negotiations for a trade agreement. While just today someone was demanding nurses and care assistants be added to the list of people entitled to guaranteed visas to live here.

    The point of the Eu is that it is a walled garden. Inside it people have rights, outside it not. It restricts who can come here while providing a pool for free trade and labour movement between nations in our local region and with similar outlooks and development level.

    Its the best trade deal that exists. What do you want to change?

  18. Robertinnewark,
    “If I was a remainer Tory (and there will be plenty of them in Canterbury) I would be looking to lend them my vote but no way would I give it to Labour under its current toxic leadership. I would either not vote (unlikely) or stay Tory.”

    I think you have faulty logic here.

    First, the libs will not win in canterbury. So anyone voting for them knows this, and any con deciding to vote lib knows it is a wasted vote already.

    If he has already made that decision, why would he not simply waste his vote by not voting, if libs withdraw and there isnt anyone else to vote for? In choosing lib he has already rejected both parties who stand a chance of winning. Why would he go back to them?

    Second, choosing to waste your vote by voting lib is already accepting that in doing so it increases the chance of lab winning, because you are not voting con. It means anyone who would do this has already decided it is more important to vote against brexit even if that means helping lab.

    It is quite rare, where libs are in second place, that a former con choosing to support them is making a step to support a party with any chance of winning.

    The implication is pretty much every remain ex tory now supporting lib would be open to voting lab if given no lib alternative.

  19. Talking of Wales, it appears that Davies (Conservative, ex-Brecon and radnorshire) has stood down as the conservative candidate for Ynys Mon

  20. @Matt126

    The movement in the latest ComRes poll, for what it may be worth anyway this distance away from polling, may be something, may be nothing. Even allowing for their tweak to methodology, the VIs for all the parties have only moved around well within the + or – 3% bounds of MOE. Tories admittedly at outer bounds of MOE, but MOE none the less.

    This is one of the foibles of opinion polling. A 6% lead for a party in a poll could actually be level pegging in reality.

    That’s if you trust their accuracy in the first place.

  21. @Danny

    “Its the best trade deal that exists. What do you want to change”

    Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU, I’m sure they’ll be desperate that things do not change.

    Realistically, the short term changes will be small, it will take 10 or more years for discernible divergence to occur.

  22. Interesting analysis of the parties NHS promises:

    NHS trend growth in budgetary demand in around 3.75% pa, real terms.

    Labour is offering a real terms increase of 4.3%pa in the next 5 years, although this includes new social care spending.

    Conservatives plan a real terms increase of 2.9%, which is better than the 1.3% since 2010, but represents the second worst spending rise over a comparable period since the creation of the NHS (after the worst ever rise since 2010). In short, Johnson’s plans represent continuing weakness for the NHS as funding fails to keep pace with demand.

    Tony Blair managed a 6% real terms increase during his years in office.

    But Corbyn is the Marxist, and Johnson the apparent saviour of the NHS?

    Anyone who believed Johnson’s total bullsh!te on the NHS deserves whatever they get.

  23. @JIB

    Why or how will leaving the EU fix our trade deficit?

    10 or more years to see the benefits. LOL

  24. @John33 – “I agree. They are offering way too much. Lacks credibility and is perhaps too much for the public to asorb such a bonanza.”

    Don’t fall for the propaganda. See my last post. Labour’s NHS spending plans are by historic terms pretty modest, while the Conservatives would see continued cuts in services.

  25. @TW

    What a load of rubbish. Con are doing their best to break up the UK and stand to gain most from it. Not as if they’re strangers to abandoning their principles willy nilly are they?

  26. @ Robert Newark
    “If it’s a craving you have, you could always have a holiday in Venezuela for a fix.”

    Why don’t you take a holiday in Moscow. I’m sure with yr party’s connections you’ll be given a hearty welcome.
    See
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/tories-russian-money-report

  27. I can’t imagine that there will be a huge turnout in the two council by elections in West Fife tomorrow but, if we’re lucky, both will go down to Count 6/7 so that we can see the Transfer Reports of those committed few who do go to vote.

  28. @Alec

    I am all for Labour investing heavily in the NHS. This should have been one their key battlegrounds. I am referring generally to the wide range of radical reforms: it can be distracting.

  29. @Danny
    “The point of the Eu is that it is a walled garden. Inside it people have rights, outside it not.”

    Really?? So no-one in UK had any rights before we joined the EU? Utter tosh.
    —————————-
    This is a snippet that might interest a few. Some of the Brexit prospective candidates who have been ‘stood down’ in Tory seats will be standing as Independent Brexiteers or similar. They are obviously highly unlikely to win any seats, but could affect the results in marginal seats such as Halesowen and Rowley Regis where the Tory majority is 5,253 but UKIP got 7,280 in 2015, though Tories still won that time.

  30. @Bantams quoting Comres:

    “We did make a slight methodological tweak to account for the Brexit Party not standing in half the seats – they didn’t appear in our main ‘prompt’.”

    If there are methodological changes from one pollster’s survey to the next one, they should not mark the changes in vote share as the data are not comparable.

    By all means show the final figures but not the changes.

  31. @Oldnat

    (Tom Harris) – I did think it would be up your street, education etc. Maybe you threw too much chalk at him, back in the day, and it’s his revenge? :D

    (West Fife) – Had a peek at any info on them. Nothing much to report, other than 1 Tory (Dunfermline Central) and 1 SNP (Rosyth). Perhaps they’re wonderful locally, but there’s not much to go on.

    It’ll depend on locally motivated canvassing types. They should be out canvassing anyway. so why not blitz the place the day before etc.

  32. On ComRes.

    It is quite significant BXP not being in the prompt some voters will actually have this choice and some won’t. Did they correct for this in the overall data?

    I come back to my previous point with BXP now standing in half the seats an overall national figure is pointless.

  33. Also anyone have any clue as to either the UKIP Brexit stance or if they are still standing in CON seats? Any super marginals could still be affected by 1000ish UKIP votes…

  34. Danny
    “The implication is pretty much every remain ex tory now supporting lib would be open to voting lab if given no lib alternative.”

    Sorry, you are wrong. Every ex Tory supporting lib might be open to voting for a Labour Party led by a soft left figure like they did for Blair. They are not going to vote for a Labour Party led by a couple of half crazed Marxists.

    CIM already posted the polling evidence on this so I’m mystified as to why you continue to repeat the notion.

    Robbie Alive

    Mine was a light hearted comment to NickP. I’ll take your sin the same vein although I think it has already been pointed out that the Russians are dissidents. Anyway, I can’t be bothered to argue the toss.

    Alec
    We get it that you don’t like Boris, as I don’t like Corbyn.

  35. Statgeek

    I didn’t teach him, though Mrs Nat had him in one of her classes, so it might be her he has spent his entire career trying to spite. :-)

    More probably, it’s all about his early lust for a Tory farmer’s daughter. Spurned by her, that obviously drove him to join SLab, but when that didn’t work, he became more and more Tory as he aged – finally resigning from Labour and becoming Scottish director of Vote Leave [1].

    Now he has taken the ultimate step and adopted her Dad’s beliefs.

    It willnae work, Tam!

    [1] One might have expected a respectable journalist to have raised that fact in the lengthy statement about Corbyn’s terrorist sympathies that BBC Scotland allowed him to deliver on radio this morning as Corbyn (with tartan scarf sallied forth to meet the tartan clad hordes [2] )

    [2] Otherwise known as the Tartan Tories of Better Together

  36. “a Labour Party led by a couple of half crazed Marxists.”

    Ahh, so not even sane Marxists.

    What of fully-crazed elitists, such as Boris, or Rees Mogg?

  37. “a Labour Party led by a couple of half crazed Marxists.”

    Ahh, so not even sane Marxists.

    What of fully-crazed elitists, such as Boris, or Rees Mogg?

  38. “a Labour Party led by a couple of half crazed Marxists.”

    Ahh, so not even sane Marxists.

    What of fully-crazed elitists, such as Boris, or Rees Mogg?

  39. Or perpetually crazed post.php calls when posting, causing triple posts. :D

  40. If there’s six of them they’re an even bigger problem @STATGEEK

    ;-)

  41. The Comres poll actually shows a Tory lead of 9.5% – which has been raised to 10% via rounding. On a UNS basis , the swing of 3.5% would imply 31 gains from Labour offset by 8 losses to the LDs and 8 to SNP – leaving the Tories with 333 seats – a majority of 16. Of the Labour seats at risk , 8 could well be saved via first term incumbency.

  42. Most non-astounding revelation of the campaign so far –

    “Former Labour MP and Brexiteer Kate Hoey reveals she will vote DUP in general election”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/kate-hoey-labour-vauxhall-dup-vote-general-election-brexit-a9202266.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1573693801

  43. @GRAHAM

    Given this first term has only been 2.5 years, and completely dominated by an abstract national policy issue, I think you might be putting a bit too much faith in the powers of first term incumbency to influence a result.

    In the only other recent example we have, the 2017 election, first term incumbency didn’t seem to be a thing for the Tories that won seats from Labour in 2015 – more of them saw swings at or above the national level than below it.

  44. @ALEC

    “Interesting analysis of the parties NHS promises:

    NHS trend growth in budgetary demand in around 3.75% pa, real terms.

    Labour is offering a real terms increase of 4.3%pa in the next 5 years, although this includes new social care spending.

    Conservatives plan a real terms increase of 2.9%, which is better than the 1.3% since 2010, but represents the second worst spending rise over a comparable period since the creation of the NHS (after the worst ever rise since 2010). In short, Johnson’s plans represent continuing weakness for the NHS as funding fails to keep pace with demand.

    Tony Blair managed a 6% real terms increase during his years in office.

    But Corbyn is the Marxist, and Johnson the apparent saviour of the NHS?

    Anyone who believed Johnson’s total bullsh!te on the NHS deserves whatever they get.”

    Can tell you’re Labour. Bang on about HOW MUCH you spend, don’t stop and think about WHAT it’s spent on.

  45. @DANNY

    “Which is exactly what we have been doing since we joined the EU, and which joining enabled us to do.”

    That why Cameron couldn’t even get basic concessions from the EU in Feb 2016?

    That why the EEC effectively stole British fishing waters by sneaking the Fisheries Policy the morning UK, Denmark (Greenland), Norway and Ireland joined?

    That why the EU continually refer to UK as never really having been fully-committed to the “European Project”?

    Why are you so obsessed with Europe?? Care about this country

  46. Jonesinbangor,
    “Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU, I’m sure they’ll be desperate that things do not change.”

    If we leave the EU, what will change which might reduce our trade deficit overall, or what might change which would reduce our trade deficit with the EU?

    In general the likelihood is increased tariffs on Uk goods sold to the Eu, which would tend to increase the deficit.

    There might be tariffs on some goods from the EU, but in general the government is proposing to keep these low, because of the impact otherwise on UK consumers and businesses reliant on inputs from the EU. So all in all, the new tariff regime will be inclined to widen the trade gap with the EU.

    In the long run, companies which manufacture in the Uk as part of an integrated European manufacturing system are likekly to move back to the EU. This will also increase our trade deficit with the EU.

    UK goods sold to the rest of the world will face worse trading terms than now. This will tend to increase the Uk trade deficit overall.

    UK farming is a relatively small part of the economy, but is likely to go out of business without the subsidies it gets now. We will therefore need to import more food.

    The Uk banking industry will start to dissolve, which is really a particular case of industry relocating because the Uk is no longer competitive, but it is a major part of the economy and a service industry where supposedly we do well.

    Balance of payments in the Uk isnt controlled by government, but the individual choices of citizens. The pound is likely to decline generally causing imports to become more expensive and therefore less competitive than goods made here, but we dont make much of the stuff we import. For example, some models of cars are made in the Uk but most not. We will continue to import luxury german cars because they are cutting edge design, so the people who like that stuff will choose to continue buying despite price rises.

    Many imported goods sold in the Uk have somewhat elastic prices. Eg, a manufacturer building in the EU has a very large home market to sell into and make a profit covering the design costs. If he wants to sell into the UK, he can afford to reduce prices compared to his prices in europe in order to be competitive here. The chinese have done this for years to everyone. But now EU companies will be doing it to the UK. The Uk with a much smaller home market will not be able to respond. But this then becomes one of the reasons why a company will manufacture in the EU and not in the UK. This was one of the arguments made in the original case for joining, that eg the Uk car industry could not survive with such a small home narket.

    UK economic activity is reliant on cheap labour from the EU. For everything from picking vegetables through cleaners and home helps, factory workers, medical professionals, university professors, bankers. The government states it intends to cut off this supply, making the business model of many companies working in the Uk non-functional.

    EOTW,
    “10 or more years to see the benefits.”

    No. ten more years to see the full negative consequences, which will only work through on that sort of timescale.

  47. Pete B,
    “Some of the Brexit prospective candidates who have been ‘stood down’ in Tory seats will be standing as Independent Brexiteers or similar. ”

    Yes good point. In asking Farage to make a deal with conservatives, you need to consider whether he is able to speak for the people which the privately owned brexit party company has asked to act as its candidates. Farage has already said the conservative’s terms for leaving arent really Brexit. I expect these people feel the same. Why not stand as independents?

    RobertNewark,
    “CIM already posted the polling evidence on this so I’m mystified as to why you continue to repeat the notion.”

    Because, as I explained through a process of deductive reasoning, the voters concerned have already made a choice in choosing lib which belies their answers to pollsters. By saying they will vote lib, they have already made a decision to help the corbyn led labour party beat the conservatives.

    Brxt,
    ” Bang on about HOW MUCH you spend, don’t stop and think about WHAT it’s spent on.”

    Well fair enough. Are you saying we should transfer money from the NHS to something else, and if so what?

    There is lots of talk the structure of the NHS is very inefficient and should be changed to save money, but in general that means bringing it back together as one organisation and abolishing the internal market for health care. Combining NHS and council provisions under one organisation, instead of the two as currently arguing about who pays from two separate funding pots. Seem to be political objections to such moves, in particular form the conservative side.

  48. Brxt,
    “That why Cameron couldn’t even get basic concessions from the EU in Feb 2016?”

    Cameron didnt ask for basic concessions from the EU because he didnt want any. All he wanted was a bit of window dressing. You raise an important point, that we have the relationship to the EU which we wanted and worked to create for 50 years. They didnt dictate it, we chose it.

    Leave has foundered on this same rock, that basically the poiticians were perfectly happy with out relationship to the EU and dont want to change it. Those who do, do not have a coherent plan of what to replace it with.

    As to fish, if we leave the EU our fishing industry is in dead trouble. Most likely outcome to replicate current arrangements, because nothing better can be done for UK fishermen. UK fishing did not decline because of the EU but because we ate all the fish, and lost the cod war with iceland about trying to take someone elses.

    “That why the EU continually refer to UK as never really having been fully-committed to the “European Project”?”

    So what are you implying? That the Uk has always looked out for its own interests as a member and not been a team player? Why do you as a leaver object to that!

    “Why are you so obsessed with Europe?”

    Because without our EU membership we would now be a third rate country instead of a second rate one. Joining the Eu stopped our fall post empire and has allowed us to dominate europe in a way we never have before.

  49. No one seems in a rush to publish their manifestos.

    1st to publish will get the most publicity but also the most scrutiny.

    Last to Publish will get the opportunity to counter and gazump the others.

    Imagine if Cons outbid Labour on NHS spending.

  50. @ Danny

    “Cameron didnt ask for basic concessions from the EU because he didnt want any. All he wanted was a bit of window dressing. You raise an important point, that we have the relationship to the EU which we wanted and worked to create for 50 years. They didnt dictate it, we chose it.”

    Comprehensively rejected in 2016.

    Respecting that democratic decision is a key issue in this election.

    Several parties fudged their position in 2017 and hid their contempt for their electorate. Time to put up now, be honest, and face the electors.

1 17 18 19 20 21 30