Sunday polls round-up

Four voting intention polls in the Sunday papers.

YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 39%(+3), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc), BREX 10%(-1) (tabs)
Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 41%(+1), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 16%(+2), BREX 6%(-5) (tabs)
Opinium/Observer – CON 41%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 15%(-1), BREX 6%(-3) (tabs)
Panelbase – CON 40%(nc), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 8%(-1) (tabs)

In most cases changes are from last week, YouGov’s changes are from their midweek poll for the Times & Sky. All four show the upwards trend in Labour support continuing (though given some of them also show the Conservatives gaining support, we cannot say that the Tory lead is narrowing). All four also show support for the Brexit party falling, particularly in the Deltapoll and Opinium figures. Apart from one outlier in August, 6% is the lowest the Brexit party have recorded since the European elections.

Following on from my post about MRP in the week, the Observer also reports the topline results from a second MRP model, again carried out by an organisation campaigning for tactical voting – this time Gina Miller’s Remain United. The model currently predicts 347 Conservative seats, 204 Labour seats and 24 Liberal Democrat seats. In comparison the BestforBritain MRP results that Chris Hanretty scraped from their website seemed to imply a better showing for the Conservatives, with around 358 Conservatives seats and just 188 Labour and 19 Lib Dems (note that the Best for Britain model only covered England & Wales). The average vote shares in the Remain United model imply a Conservative lead of only around 6 points, so the difference in seat numbers may very well just be down to projecting a higher level of Labour support, rather than a different pattern of swings. For all the fuss about “rival tactical voting sites”, by my count there are only 13 seats where RemainUnited suggest voting Labour and BestforBritain suggest voting Lib Dem.

There is a methodological explanation on the remain united website here that says it is not actually an MRP model, but an RRP model, which is apparently “similar” to an MPR model (I don’t know what the technical differences are to the approach, but the explanation they give does indeed sound very similar). The model is based on a ComRes sample of only 6097 responses, significantly smaller than the 46,000 sample that Best for Britain used and the 50,000 or so samples that YouGov were using at the last election. There was a similar ComRes/ElectoralData RRP model for the European elections earlier this year which did not perform particularly well – while it got the share of Brexit party support correct, it overstated Labour support by 10%, understated the Greens by 6% and Liberal Democrats by 5%, which would be rather a problem is your aim is to work out which remain party is best placed to win in seats. That said, the data for their European election model was collected more than a week before polling day, and they may well have finessed the model since then.


1,483 Responses to “Sunday polls round-up”

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  1. @Trevors – “@ EOTW – “I thought if a deal was in the pipeline but not ratified then it was possible to start trading under the terms of the deal”

    It is but you don’t need GATT XXIV for that (it WAS an option but events have moved on)

    You can look for yourself and see how many EU trade deals are “pending” (ie it is possible to start (or in UK-EU’s case continue) trading before a deal is ratified)”

    You’re getting dangerously offensive later on in this post, and also misleading.

    GATT 24 was never an option in the Brexit talks. Only people like you and Ian Duncan Smith claimed it was, and I recall (@somerjohn I think?) on here having to explain to you that GATT 24 needs both sides to agree, while you were still claiming the UK could unilaterally employ it. It was a red herring, and was completely irrelevant.

    It is, theoretically, at least, potentially in play now, but for reasons I and others have outlined above, in practice, it won’t be used.

    You also seem to be somewhat confused still about the application of terms of an interim deal. It is not the case that an agreed but not ratified deal can automatically be initiated on a provisional basis. My understanding is that only those competencies reserved to the EC can be so initiated, whereas the mixed elements of mixed deals – subject to national veto – need to await full ratification.

    In the case of the forthcoming EU/UK trade deal, this will be mixed, as detailed in the PD, so substantial elements of this will need to await ratification. Indeed, the last three words in the link you supplied are ‘partly in place’, which is a heavy clue about how the provisions are not all applied.

    It might be better if you dropped the ‘remtard’ rubbish, and on matters of trade, I would politely suggest that you don’t scroll past the ‘remtards’ posts (which clearly you don’t anyway) as there is much for you to learn.

    On trade, you have already come quite a long way from your erroneous starting positions, but I feel there may still be areas where you aren’t fully appraised of how things work.

    I’ve learned a lot too over the last three years. It’s been very illuminating.

  2. Good morning all from a rather bright PSRL

    Looking back at the polls from ’17, it was at about this time (when Lab announced their manifesto) when you started to see a narrowing in the polls (quite dramatically in the case of Yougov, but if I recall they may have made some methodological change).

    On the basis of available information its looking a bit bleak for Labour. Their main hope must be that remainers react to the Tory lead by flocking to their banner and that their traditional Labour policies keep enough of their trad wc support on side.

    Personally I think people are generally tired, its winter people are drained and many just want an end to the wrangling over Brexit. This weariness aids the Conservatives, and I think a sufficient number of voters will go with them to avoid a hung parliament in the hope something actually gets done.

    Both leaders look drained – but its winter which is taking a strain on the vigour of both, but I think more to the detriment of Corbyn.

  3. “my accommodation burnt to pieces tonight, leaving myself & everybody else here homeless & without our possessions. Grateful for all the messages received and hoping everybody is safe. Can’t thank the emergency services enough. #boltonfire”

    https://twitter.com/BowlerRachel

  4. SAM

    @”Labour has said it intends to nationalise Greggs and Barrs”

    British Buns and British Bru.

  5. slow but NOT static in above bit about WTO

  6. @ EOTW – and finally.. please do check into CETA (Canada-EU) and just take a guess at how “reversing out” would be quicker and easier than starting from very different regulations.

    Lots of stuff in their about specific time periods that change access and rules (eg Rules of Origin), etc (ie give businesses time to adapt) and I hope you saw that Canada is still in the “agreements partly in place” section of EU trade deals (I forgot they split the categories out even further these days but hat is an excellent 4-word description of what i would expect UK-EU to have in place for 1Jan’21)

    So agreed within a year and then progressively implemented (ie a phased “exit” as we “reverse out”)?

    As Varadkhar might say:

    “difficult, but not impossible” ;)

    I’m sure the crysal ballsh!tter will predict the future and tell me I’m wrong but then apparently 3 countries have already left the EU so how hard can it be?? :-) :-)

  7. @ Colin

    Weatherspoons & Arsenal, the Armed Forces team will ground share the Emirates Stadium & be given an automatic place in the EPL.

  8. BANTAMS

    Didn’t know old Corby is a fan of Weatherspoons.

    Is he worried about UK Armed Forces ?

  9. Post on WTO and WCO must have had an “automod” word in. Anyway, repost of links I’ve posted before on the off chance anyone wants to investigate life on Earth

    Link to get folks going on WTO progress (slow but NOT static)
    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/markacc_e/markacc_e.htm

    WCO stuff useful to read as well
    http://www.wcoomd.org/en/topics/enforcement-and-compliance.aspx

  10. Trees by the many-not just a few

  11. ” “I have no recollection of ever meeting this cigar, none whatsoever.”

  12. This piece by Tony Connelly is a useful summary of the current position on fishing and Brexit.

    https://www.rte.ie/amp/1091162/?__twitter_impression=true

  13. How confident are the pollsters of their methodologies this time round? With some polls suggesting a Con lead of 7-8 and others 10-12, there’s some scope for egg on faces.

  14. @ Colin

    Corbyn might find a reason to nationalise the UK’s favourite pub group and the old Soviet Union used to have an armed forces team playing in their top league, we could have CSKA London playing in the Champions League. Just a bit of fun :)|

  15. @NewhouseT
    Here’s a link to a graph that illustrates the point you were making to PC(SNP)

    Look at the section heading “It is not only about child mortality – life expectancy by age”

    https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy

  16. @RP

    With some polls suggesting a Con lead of 7-8 and others 10-12, there’s some scope for egg on faces

    Well if Survation are correct the race is a lot closer than most commentators, and other pols are sugestion, and far from 1983 it could by 1970 but with Labour as the surprising. The world today in many ways is far more complex, especially in terms of media channels, than it was back then. In a situation of widespread political flux past assumptions may not hold, making it very difficult for pollsters to create models that are accurate predictors.

  17. To misquote AW, ‘vote for who the HEAVEN you want’.
    My broad prediction is a real shaking of the institutions and trusted norms on Friday 13th December.
    I initially thought, Corbyn wins majority despite even low level of enthusiasm among his party activists and traditional voters.
    Or Corbyn/SNP/Plaid/Green coalition breaking up the UK and capitalist system. Ending the monarchy 9and property portfolio), honours system, confiscating the church of England property portfolio and investments, same with Oxbridge colleges (especially Kings College property portfolio).
    But I am now going for the more optimistic, Conservative and Labour both losing seats and market share. Both brands damaged. Conservatives humbled and forced to go cap in hand to Brexit and Unionists. SNP humbled and the rebellion defeated.
    Labour and Lib Dems and Greens dominating London which leads the Con, Brexit, Unionists to move institutions, levers of power out of London.
    Maybe things like forbidding charities (not confined to London in their constitution) losing their legal status if they do not relocate their HQ outside the M25.
    A real shaking is coming.
    A Southampton 0 Leicester 9 type shaking.
    I have great affection for Trevor Warne and his illuminating amusing insights. I hope that he still finds a hedge to win his bets.

  18. @RP
    How confident are the pollsters of their methodologies this time round? With some polls suggesting a Con lead of 7-8 and others 10-12, there’s some scope for egg on faces.
    …………..…………………………….

    Methodology matters.
    But polls not relevant yet.
    No postal votes sent out.
    Polls VI matter once people have postal votes.
    Are they an accurate snapshot of VI?
    They matter in the days before December 12th.
    VI moves.
    Example, Change reached 18% in some polls in Feb/March but now are zip. Brexit and Lib Dems led the national polls in the summer. VI moves. Electorate volatile.
    Political parties conduct bold experiment of first ever GE during the traditional late November and December reality tv shows dominating the lead broadcast media news items and front pages. The observable results will mean they know for next time.
    In 1974 was it 1 in 3 households owned a car? Let alone 4 car households. People now work much father from home, do not work 9 to 5, etc. Early and mid summer elections fine. Winter – maybe very different story.
    Shops closed at 5 to 6 pm in 1974. Not 24 hour shopping and Christmas overtime shifts. Fitting in voting outside the local authority election faithful core voting group?

  19. New thread, Valerie is keeping it all to herself :)|

  20. SAM

    ”Labour has said it intends to nationalise Greggs and Barrs”.

    As always, the issue of ownership disguises the real issues that divide the country –

    Will Greggs then provide macaroni pies?

    Will Irn-Bru be the traditional or new recipe?

  21. @ ALEC – “On trade, you have already come quite a long way from your erroneous starting positions’

    Oohh goody, does that mean “teacher” will give me a gold star? ;)

    Sadly I don’t think you’ve come anywhere and in many cases have remtarded[1] but if you want to go and find some old post concerning my “erroneous” stuff on Gatt XXIV etc, ensure to make it is out of context (or use the misunderstood out of context reply from a fellow remtard) and ignore the date (and pending events) then be my guess.

    Events change the path of future options (something you never understood and doubt you ever will)

    EG Boris+Frost reopening the supposedly closed WA and removing the supposedly irremovable May+Robbins “backstop” (known as the “trap” by Leavers) and replacing it with a “frontstop” (which avoids the “trap”). Major change in possible future outcomes. Sure we might still get BrINO, we might even have years more dither and delay, we might have the default – I dunno. What I do know is Boris+Frost’s WA+PD (it’s not a deal but most people including myself will usually use the socially accepted term, even though its not very accurate) no longer has the “trap” (Robbins himself said it was a “bridge” to a customs union – totally missing the fact that leaving the customs union was the reddest of red lines)

    Anyway, be a luv and use your time machine to visit three parallel universes in the future please.

    i/ Farage and Boris had done a pact (but Swinson and Corbyn had not)

    ii/ Swinson and Corbyn had done a pact (but Farage and Boris had not)

    iii/ Both sides had done a pact.

    Sadly come 13Dec we won’t have the above 3 counter factuals and that will make analysis of the results a little more “subjective” (although n=632 and the short time since EURef’16 and GE’17 will allow some objectivity)

    PS I’d much rather discuss polling and seat prediction models, etc but I do sometimes skim the drivel. Hence why I stick with using REMTARD when I refer to you – I’ve no idea why you chipped in on the EOTW discussion but since you did then I wasted my time reading your drivel. What is crystal clear (yet again) is that you clearly have never bovvered to even attempt to read any actual Real World source info or evidence and still base your opinion on Graun Arch-Remain propoganda and a very faulty memory. Zero progress, possibly even gone backwards and being a Remainer that makes you a REMTARD. Simples ;)

  22. BANTAMS

    Ah-got it :-) :-)

  23. @ PETE – If you bothered to check polling you would see in “most important issues” that immigration (as an issue) has dropped massively.

    “immigration has dropped in prominence as a public concern: it now ranks just below the environment as the sixth biggest issue”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/15/how-immigration-became-britains-most-toxic-political-issue

    It still seems to be an issue for LAB and we’ll see if Len or Abbot win that one. For CON then for sure we have to sort out the details but a balanced approach to “taking back control” is excellent news and great to see ;)

    Do try to keep up…

  24. @ JSB – “I hope that he still finds a hedge to win his bets”

    Hedges are so last week. It’s all trees these days – real ones and imaginary ones ;)

    Tree of choice for Bennites of old (genuine Corbynites like McCluskey) would be the British Leylandii ;)

    I prefer the English Oak myself and I hope we plant 340+ of those in Westminster on 12Dec ;)

  25. Dunfermline Central ward, Labour first preference votes:

    2012: 41.0%
    2017: 26.5%
    2019: 13.5%

    Oh, dear.

  26. @TREVOR WARNE

    There was never any need for context regarding GATT XXIV views. since the articles was simple we needed agreement and many people pointed that out at the time. I am not even sure why this actually became a thing as it was said at the time that we did not have an agreement on how to proceed on a FTA.

    To state there was a context where EU and UK would agree to use GATT XXiV rather than agree to solve the basis of A50 would be ignorant of the context

    The second thing is the backstop was UK Governmetn proposition the Irish wanted a no checks on the border they were happy for the UK to come up with a plan for that we did and they were all rubbish (i.e. they had checks on the RoI/NI border) In the end we all agreed there was three options a formal border RoI/NI with checks. A border between NI/GB with checks or the whole of UK & ireland in a union with checks with rest of the EU.

    The clearest preference for the EU was a Border between NI/GB.

    Both GATT XXiV and backstop issues were obviously going to resolved in the way they were many people pointed this out as the only solutions really available In the end the UK dropped red line and it made DUP look like useful ejjits as you liked to call the Irish.

    No matter what people think the outcome has been something that the EU wanted and basically they see UK not in the same way as we see ourselves internally. The want a stable enough UK government that they can do whatever deal they can with

    Going to WTO will not be the end of the world but the problem with it is that there is very weak governance which means that everyone get away with whatever they need to which is good in some ways but not so good in others. It help if you have clout and the argument has alwys been do we have enough clout.

    Now taking China versus US as an example size matters.

  27. Jeremy Corbyn on Bolton Fire: “It shows the government’s shameful inaction since Grenfell”.

    FBU North West on Bolton Fire: “Alarmingly, Andy Burnham is trying to cut another six fire engines, including one in Bolton”

    Tweet by Dan Hodges

  28. Boris Johnson campaigning in Mansfield???

  29. Alec
    I suppose it depends on your definition of full fast broadband. I agree that it should be available to all who want it but 10mbps I would suggest is enough for most. It isn’t necessary for everyone to have 60, 100 or even faster.

    When we lived in France we had satellite internet at 20mbps, it cost a little bit more but not prohibitive, that same system is available in the uk as an option for remote locations where it is not cost effective to lay cable, which as @Colin referred to, will be old hat in 5 years.

    Someone also mentioned 4G LTE in Norway, well that’s the way the French are now going and what I switched to about 2 years ago as for 20 euros pm I could have a SIM card with 100gb of data pm for the router, for 20 euros pm. I put an aerial on my roof in France and picked up a 16mbps speed from a town 4kms away as the crow flies. My neighbour half a mile away, who was better placed at the top of the hill got a stronger signal and 60mbps speed.

    So wireless is the way it will go and a sensible offer from a government would be an equipment and extra monthly cost subsidy, for those who cannot get a reasonable speed, say 8mbps, conventionally, rather than waste billions nationalising commercial companies.

  30. @ROBERTNEWARK

    The 4G/5G pretty much only covers the last 2 miles of the journey of a signal to your phone the bulk of the journey go through cables.

    It is why the view of Huawei using 5G to get access to our datat is laughable we use huawei in most of our core telecommunications where it is easier to trap data since there is so much of it to snoop.

    You actually need the trunk fibre to cabinet at least which is why rural areas have great difficulty since you are either replacing copper wire (digging up roads to villages or replacing telephone polls)

    4GLTE can be useful but basically you pretty much need multiple cell stations and microwave relays or you need fibre connectivity for things to work. You need the bandwidth to the base station people seem to forget that.

    The point of the Labour initiative which is interesting is that they are paying for the infrastructure which will speed up access since it is not viable to provision the access to certain places

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