The first Sunday of the election campaign, and as you expect, several polls in the Sunday papers:

The Telegraph have a poll from ORB. Topline figures are CON 36%, LAB 28%, LDEM 14%, BREX 12%. Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday. While they’ve published some trackers on support for Brexit, the last time I recall seeing a voting intention poll from ORB was back in April, so changes here aren’t really relevant.

ComRes in the Sunday Express have topline figures of CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 17%(-1), BREX 10%(-2). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, with changes from mid-October, at the time of Johnson’s deal.

The regular Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 42%(+2), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 16%(+1), BREX 9%(-1), GRN 2%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from last week.

YouGov in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 39%(+3), LAB 27%(+6), LDEM 16%(-2), BREX 7%(-6). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, with changes from midweek.

Finally, Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday (they’ll be running weekly polls for them for the campaign) have topline figures of CON 40%(+3), LAB 28%(+4), LDEM 14%(-5), BREX 11%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday to Saturday, with changes from mid-October, just after Johnson’s deal.

All the polls continue to show a sizeable Conservative lead, though as ever this varies somewhat from pollster to pollster. The eight point leads that the ORB and ComRes polls show would be quite tight between a Conservative majority and a hung Parliament on a uniform swing (not that I’d expect a uniform swing); the 12 and 16 point leads that YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium show should give them a solid majority.

Note that all the polls are showing the Conservatives gaining support (so did the Survation, Panelbase and MORI polls published on Thursday and Friday), and most of them are showing the Labour party gaining too – suggesting perhaps that now an election is a reality, some wavering voters are moving their support behind the two main parties after all (something we also saw in the 2017 election, when UKIP support fell off a cliff almost as soon as the election was called).

Note also that the fieldwork for the YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium polls was conducted on and after October 31st, when Britain had obviously not left the European Union on time. It does not appear to have either damaged the Tories or boosted the Brexit party. That looked like the case anyway, after all, it’s been very obvious for about a week and a half that Britain was not going to leave on the 31st, but there was always that small chance that there would be an impact when the date actually passed. There wasn’t. (And I told you those hypothetical “How would you vote if Britain hadn’t left the EU by Oct 31st” questions showing Tory support slumping didn’t have any predictive value. Next time people do them – and they will – please do remember that they don’t work!)


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