The first voting intention polls published since the election was called were in this morning’s papers: Survation for the Mail, Ipsos MORI for the Standard and YouGov for the Times. Topline figures were

Survation – CON 34%, LAB 26%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN 1% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 41%, LAB 24%, LDEM 20%, BREX 7%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 36%, LAB 21%, LDEM 18%, BREX 13%, GRN 6% (tabs).

There’s quite a spread between the results – Ipsos MORI have the Conservatives up above 40, their highest in any poll since August. YouGov and Survation have them in the mid-thirties. Labour’s support varies between 26% in Survation down to 21% in YouGov. All three have the Lib Dems between 18%-20%. This means while the Conservative lead varies, there is a consistent Conservative lead across the board as we start the campaign.

It’s worth noting that that Tory lead is largely down to a split opposition. Even in the MORI poll the Conservatives have lost support since the election (in the YouGov and Survation polls they’ve lost a lot of support). This is not a popular government – in the MORI poll, their satisfaction rating is minus 55 – it’s just that the main opposition have lost even more support. The healthy Conservative lead is down to the fact that the Conservatives are retaining the bulk of the Leave vote, while the remain vote is split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid and so on.

For as long as this is the case, the Conservatives should do well. If it should change they’ll struggle. If the Brexit party manage to get back into the race and take support from the Tories it would eat into their lead. The other risk for the Tories is if the Remain vote swings more decisively behind either Labour or the Liberal Democrats (or that there are signs of more effective tactical voting, winning seats off the Conservatives despite a split vote). Essentially Boris Johnson needs to keep the Leave vote united and the Remain vote divided.

It is also worth considering how the Conservative lead might translate into seats. In 2017 the Conservative lead over Labour was only two and a half percentage points. You would therefore expect an eight point Conservative lead to translate into a majority, and a fifteen or seventeen point lead to be a landslide. In reality that Survation poll could easily be touch-and-go for a Tory majority and, while the bigger leads would likely get a Tory majority, it may not be landslide territory.

The reason that the Conservatives translated votes more effectively into seats in 2015 and 2017 was to do with the distribution of the vote. The Conservative re-emergence in Scotland meant that Tory votes up there were no longer wasted (but Labour votes increasingly were), the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in the South-West meant that the Tories vote there returned more MPs. If at the coming election we see those trends reverse, and the Conservatives lose seats to the SNP in Scotland and the Lib Dems in the South, then suddenly their votes won’t be translated so effectively into seats, and they’ll need to win more seats off Labour to make up for it.

Right now we have little evidence of how uniform or not the changes in support are, of whether there is evidence of tactical voting (Survation have released a couple of constituency polls they have conducted for the Liberal Democrats showing them doing very well in individual seats, but I don’t think it’s too cynical to imagine that the Lib Dems may have selectively published seats they are doing particularly well in). In the fulness of time I expect we will see the publication of MRP models along the lines of those YouGov conducted in 2017 that may give us a better steer, but I’ll come to that another day.

In the meantime, as we cross the starting line the Conservatives have a clear lead in the polls, but how it translates into seats is unclear. In the polls with the smaller Tory leads, it may not produce a majority at all. Equally, their lead is dependent upon the Leave vote remaining relatively united, and the Remain vote remaining divided, if that changes, the race could end up being far closer.


515 Responses to “The first polls of the campaign”

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  1. Here in West Aberd & Kinc the election leaflets are coming regularly despite the rain.

    The Tory one just arrived has a main message of standing firm against Indyref2, and lacks any mention or picture of Johnson.

    I don`t think it will win many votes here, though it is clearly wise to pretend that Johnson is not running the party.

    It looks to me that the leaflet was put together in a hurry, as during the Davidson leadership. There`s a sentence I have puzzled about: “Leaving the dreaded Common Fisheries Policy will create a aea of opportunity for the NE fishing industry”

    Could “aea” be “area” or “era” or “sea”.

    On Indyref2, I voted against last time, and could again do that. But it will play very badly for the Tories if they like bullies deny the people of Scotland a vote when the circumstances are quite different now to Indyref1.

    It`s the same attitude of wanting and using power to boost ourselves, and ignoring the rest, that we have had about the schooling of the England RU team. There were two mentions on R4 c 8am today of how one school in the Home Counties had produced 4 players for the team and taught them good values.

    For Owen Farrell being in that school for just 2 years trumped what he had been taught in his previous 8 yaarss of schooling. I am sure modesty, fair play and a wide outlook were not in the two speakers` lexicon.

  2. @GARJ

    Well yes, it was just an example. I still can’t see how a LibDem surge is likely to benefit CON rather than LAB….however much you might want it to!

  3. @PETE B COLIN

    Can’t see what’s sad and bitter about being a republican. I’m guessing most people on the planet are. It’s you monarchists who have been left behind by history.

  4. Trevor Warne
    “(ie it’s not about voting for who you want as much as who you don’t want)”

    That’s one reason I’m beginning to favour some form of PR. It encourages positive rather than negative voting.

    Colin
    :-)

  5. @ TOH – I’m donating time as well as a bit of money myself. Time priority for now is convincing individual BXP candidates to withdraw and back their local CON candidate instead.

    Remain side are going to work very hard to get tactical voting to deliver as many Remain MPs as possible so our side needs to do the same.

    The easiest solution is for BXP candidates to withdraw but we’ll also be going after Farage. In RoC seats (and press) the message will be:

    Vote Farage = Get Corbyn

    In LAB Heartlands

    Vote Farage = Remain in EU

    Whilst Farage might want to keep his MEP salary and “fame” going he is seriously risking a Remain parliament keeping us stuck in the EU (or worse stuck in CU with no say).

    Hopefully BXP VI will drop as folks see Farage has lost the plot but there is no excuse for complacency this time and any BXP candidate that effectively allows a Remain MP to win the seat due to splitting the Leave vote needs to understand the implications of contesting against a CON-Leave candidate (and post “purge” all[1] CON candidates are Leave this time!)

    The WA is obviously not perfect but it’s a vast improvement on May’s bad deal and infinitely better than being stuck in EU (or CU) and having Marxists in #10 and #11. Boris+Javid are also IMO a vast improvement on May+Hammond.

    [1] Still TBC on Hammond, Gauke and Milton. They will not be given CCHQ approval but they might stand as Ind-CONs or similar (court cases might even mean they can stand as CON). That’s 3 max though as all the other CON-Remainiac MPs are either standing down or have been kicked out by their local members.

  6. First of I assume a number of polls tonight, this one is Opinium:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (+2)
    LDEM: 16% (+1)
    BREX: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch
    , 30 Oct – 01 Nov

  7. From Britain elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (+2)
    LDEM: 16% (+1)
    BREX: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    via
    @OpiniumResearch
    , 30 Oct – 01 Nov

  8. LEWBLEW

    Well I just vomited.

    Why, I’m just one of millions who will vote Conservative the only party which will give the UK as a whole abetter future IMO.

    If you cannot stomach others having different views to your own I would suggest from a health point of view you give up any interest in politics, polling or this site.

    Take care. of yourself.

  9. POLL ALERT

    CON: 42% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (+2)
    LDEM: 16% (+1)
    BREX: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 30 Oct – 01 Nov

  10. 16 point Tory lead (42 to 26) from Opinium in tomorrow’s Observer

  11. TW

    Thanks for your comments, we agree on most.

  12. @TREVOR WARNE

    I keep wondering why this was the narrative: The aim of the extension was to get a WA approved and insure that we would not leave with no deal

    It was Borsi himself that said he would prefer to be dead in a ditch. If there was no extension there would have been no deal.

    The extension idea is essentially a Tory rebels versus Johnson issue. If I was a leaver I would not be blaming him for this and I would have thought it is a simpleton that would blame him for it.

    In my view the reality is that they have no choice. They could be out of power and not only that out out power to what a sizeable portion of their voting intention would think is the worst Labour party in existence.

    As I said I think there is no win for the Tories, but to say that the majority of their MP want Labour to win and to stop Brexit is in my view complete and utter b#ll#cks. Read the comments of TREVOR WARNE, THE OTHER HOWARD, ROBERT NEWARK, you have been on this site as long as I have I have not met one person that agrees that the Tories have been trying not to get brexit done.

    Now I would think for me as a remainer a hung parliament or a Labour led coalition would be my preferred solution I believe the electorate is split and the FPTP system allows for a 33% of the electorate to install a party which would have a majority of the seats. I think that is the most likely scenario

    As I said look at the polls surrounding Iraq not only did people support the war but but there were several peaks before we had our oh moment and even that took ages.

    If you were right then May could have done several things having lost the majority she could have decided to talk to the opposition and look for a way forward, she chose not to because her party would not allow it. They will own brexit, whether it is a success or a failure

    I have likened this to being in the middle of a minefield no matter which way you go you are still facing lots of dangers to get to the end I don’t think for the Tories there is a good answer but to keep calm and carry on

  13. @ Lewblew

    Do I detect a bit of wealth envy? Not healthy if it is. Someone has to be successful financially in life or none of us benefit from free health care etc etc etc…….

  14. I have mixed two posts into one

    @TREVOR WARNE

    I keep wondering why this was the narrative: The aim of the extension was to get a WA approved and insure that we would not leave with no deal

    It was Boris himself that said he would prefer to be dead in a ditch. If there was no extension there would have been no deal.

    The extension idea is essentially a Tory rebels versus Johnson issue. If I was a leaver I would not be blaming him for this and I would have thought it is a simpleton that would blame him for it.

    @DANNY

    In my view the reality is that they have no choice. They could be out of power and not only that out out power to what a sizeable portion of their voting intention would think is the worst Labour party in existence. remember the leader is a anti semitic, terrorist sympathising, sand wearing, immigrant and tree hugging marxist

    As I said I think there is no win for the Tories, but to say that the majority of their MP want Labour to win and to stop Brexit is in my view complete and utter b#ll#cks. Read the comments of TREVOR WARNE, THE OTHER HOWARD, ROBERT NEWARK, you have been on this site as long as I have I have not met one person that agrees that the Tories have been trying not to get brexit done.

    Now I would think for me as a remainer a hung parliament or a Labour led coalition would be my preferred solution I believe the electorate is split and the FPTP system allows for a 33% of the electorate to install a party which would have a majority of the seats. I think that is the most likely scenario

    Look at the polls surrounding Iraq not only did people support the war but but there were several peaks before we had our oh moment and even that took ages.

    If you were right then May could have done several things having lost the majority she could have decided to talk to the opposition and look for a way forward, she chose not to because her party would not allow it. They will own brexit, whether it is a success or a failure

    I have likened this to being in the middle of a minefield no matter which way you go you are still facing lots of dangers to get to the end I don’t think for the Tories there is a good answer but to keep calm and carry on

  15. I think it is worth noting that currently most of the polls have fieldwork pre-31st of October. While I don’t expect there to be much variance between the polls, we could see a small uptick in the Brexit party as the “Brexit not delivered” factor comes into play. Probably not much though. There will certainly be quite a few seats to watch, I personally hope we get more constituency level polling. I’d be fascinated to see Peterborough/Hartlepool in terms of Brexit Party support, not to mention Cantebury/Uxbridge

  16. Latest Poll in :

    CON: 42% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (+2)
    LDEM: 16% (+1)
    BREX: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 30 Oct – 01 Nov

    That’s three of the latest polls with Tory leads over 40% almost what they got in the 2017 election.

  17. It amuses me when I hear Ford & Farrell being interviewed.

    Being a nostalgic Northerner I love to hear those two speak.
    And then I think of Davwel & NickP & the rest of the UKPR class warriors , tutting over their Newcastle Brown and muttering- “pair of upper class twits” :-)

  18. CON: 42% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (+2)
    LDEM: 16% (+1)
    BREX: 9% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (-1)
    – Opinium (30th-1st)

    We seem to be seeing a pattern of both main parties increasing their share. They are still a long way from 2017 though – or at least Labour is. With Opinium, Con have now reached their 2017 share.

    However, there is little or no sign of the gap between the parties narrowing. But plenty of time in which this might, or might not, happen.

  19. ORB Poll in

    CON: 36% (+10)
    LAB: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 14% (+6)
    BREX: 12% (-2)

    via @ORB_Int, 30 – 31 Oct

  20. RP,

    “ We seem to be seeing a pattern of both main parties increasing their share”

    So far Corbyn & Johnstone have dominated the media, broadcast & Print!

    Peter.

  21. @Pete B
    “Does any party? Genuine question.”

    Almost certainly not, which was sort of my point. You end up with two unhappy ‘broad churches’ that end up going through phases of being more ‘central’ where they win and less central where they generally don’t (unless the opposition is even less central). In every case they are often able to implement policies that are unsatisfactory to a majority of the country.

    “Some social media can have that effect where news feeds are tailored to their interests, but the more general availability of information means people are able to get a broader range of views.”

    Yes but it seems less so for those who are politically active, and they’re the ones who get to decide the direction of their party.

  22. TOH.
    Evening to you.
    Is that really plus ten for the Cons to 36?
    Thanks very much

  23. I said many months ago that over 15% would be very good for the LDs from their 2017 base; and that 15% would be a good result in itself.

    Careful targeting could well deliver them 20+ extra seats (from 2017) which again would represent decent progress and a good platform to encourage their move to a European style moderate Centre Right party perfect for attracting part of the Tory Coalition of voters.

    Perhaps by the next GE, should it be 2024, the ROC vote will be split and Labour under a new less toxic leader will benefit in E&W.

  24. I can see Labour getting back into 30’s in next few weeks. The reasons are than Labour was polling high 30’s earlier in the year so they are gaining back some of Lib Dem Vote where they need it due to tactical voting shift. They are committed to 2nd referendum now after all.
    I Don’t get the polls showing Con at 42%. This is what they polled in 2017 election. These polls still have Brexit Party on 9% and Lib Dems 16%. We would expect some of 2017 Con to be in BP VI. Also we would expect some of the CON VI to have moved to Lib Dem. Also Britain is supposed to be more remainy now than 2017.

  25. TOH,

    “ It will be interesting to see which of us is laughing at that one after the election.”

    I think most on here would put many the prospects of the SNP getting a larger proportional increase in vote and MP’s higher than that of the Tories.

    At 35 seats to 318 the Tories need to win 9 seats for everyone we do to get a bigger improvement and at 13.6m to 980k it takes 14 extra votes to every extra SNP one.

    No doubt you’ll see it in terms of the U.K. but I’ll judge it how well we do in Scotland compared to other Parties here and how well any progress we make here to how others do elsewhere.

    Peter.

  26. Matt126,

    “I Don’t get the polls showing Con at 42%.”

    42% excluding DKs? Lots of left wing don’t knows would boost their relative vote.

  27. Another one…

    CON: 36% (+10)
    LAB: 28% (-1)
    LDEM: 14% (+6)
    BREX: 12% (-2)

    via @ORB_Int, 30 – 31 Oct
    Chgs. w/ Apr (ie 6mths ago!!)

    PS The reason the changes don’t net out are because back in April TIG and UKIP were both polling at 5% and Green at 4% (I’d assume first two are near zero and Greens must have gone down as well (or a lot of rounding issues).

    April poll:
    https://www.orb-international.com/2019/04/21/votingintention/

  28. Bantams

    “Someone has to be successful financially in life or none of us benefit from free health care etc etc”

    Surely you missed the smiley at the end… I assume you meant it as a joke.

  29. @CL45

    “TOH.
    Evening to you.
    Is that really plus ten for the Cons to 36?
    Thanks very much”

    Yes. Changes are since m the last ORB/Telegraph poll on 16/17 April 2019 (per wiki).

  30. “It amuses me when I hear Ford & Farrell being interviewed.”

    Who in god’s name are Ford & Farrell? Sound like Estate Agents?

  31. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I would also add my congratulations to the Japanese who organised what has been a wonderful Rugby World Cup and showed us their own brand of Rugby which was full of skill and excitement.

    Indeed

  32. Given the volatility in the electorate at the moment all recent polls should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. It is nearly six weeks to polling day and let’s not forget what happened in 2017. Important factors this time will include:
    1. Regarding Brexit: Tories have a questionable deal which according to Farage is BRINO or to others is only marginally better than no-deal…… in any element a unilateral decision taken by the Tory government. LDs are at the opposite extreme of revoke….unpalatable even to some remainers who may deem this undemocratic. Arguably Labour have the most sensible policy: Negotiate a WA of its own (presumably one with a customs union) and a 2nd referendum….leavers can vote for the deal and remainers will have the chance to vote remain in a second referendum. LDs can’t realistically win a majority.
    2. Labour is likely to have policies similar to 2017 which are popular and will resonate with the public and the poll-gap may well start to close.
    3. Boris Johnson is regarded by many as untrustworthy by many (including Tory voters). He is also rather gaff-prone and doesn’t handle detail questions well.
    4. Brexit party standing in a large number of seats is likely to hurt the tories more than Labour.
    5. Tactical voting will be prevalent in many seats…especially in remain voting ones in London.

  33. @JamesB

    “Yes but it seems less so for those who are politically active, and they’re the ones who get to decide the direction of their party.”

    ————-

    Well those new younger Labour and Momentum members probably didn’t turn leftwards as a result of the mainstream media trashing Corbyn.

  34. @Matt126 (“I Don’t get the polls showing Con at 42%.”)

    Only one poll has put them on 42%, although a couple have put them on 40-1%.

    However, in the run-up to the 2017 GE, a poll put the Tories on 50%, two polls put them on 49%, and two or three more put them on 48%. And, the poll that put them on 50% had UKIP on 7%, making 57% total RoC.

    But the pollsters have adjusted their methods since then (I think). However, in so far as the error was partly due to a shift in opinion, that may happen again. There are many who strangely assume it won’t, and many who assume that it will. Neither assumption seems entirely safe. Public opinion has been volatile in recent months and years.

  35. Passtherockplease,
    ” I have I have not met one person that agrees that the Tories have been trying not to get brexit done.”

    Well if I am right, certainly you wouldnt find anyone on the conservative side agreeing with it. And from the labour side, would they agree that actually the tories are remainers too, and in a practical sense trying to make remain happen? I dont think so. Labour are trying to keep all the remain voters for themselves.

    It isnt really in anyones interest to call out the conservatives as secret remainers, and even BxP might hesitate. Farage is right now accusing conservatives of selling out Brexit, but logically if he really did push this and get people to believe it, then the conservatives would have to admit they were actually remainers who had been telling porky pies when they said Brexit was a good idea. Which would then undermine the whole concept of Brexit.

    So Farage could not call out the conservatives as remainers either, for fear of fatally undermining the concept of Brexit. best he can do is call them soft leavers, ‘not proper Brexit’, and try to corner them into a harder position.

  36. @RobbieAlive

    “Who in god’s name are Ford & Farrell? Sound like Estate Agents?”

    They work for a Company called Class Warfare Inc. They are on hire for post match interviews at Rugby Union matches and have perfected very authentic northern accents. This makes sure that the game is portrayed as the authentic working class sport that it is. All this Will Carling, Jeremy Guscott and Rob Andrew nonsense is history now. Those were the bad old days when the class warrior members of the Welsh national Rugby side used to call the England team “The Jonathans.” God knows where they got that idea from, but that’s what they thought about the England team back then. Nowadays the Farrell and Ford effect negates all that silliness and wherever you go throughout the country you will see Rugby Union as the main winter game in all state schools. Times are changing thanks to Owen Farrell’s accent!

    :-})

    Talking of company names, I was a great fan of Private Eye’s firm of solicitors called “Sue, Grabbet and Runn.I wonder if they are still in business? Probably advising and acting for Gena Miller, I expect.

    Of course, my favourite is the real life firm of estate agents in Kidderminster – “Doolittle and Dalley.”

    It’s true, folks. Honest.

    :-})

  37. @ Colin:

    “”And then I think of Davwel & NickP & the rest of the UKPR class warriors , tutting over their Newcastle Brown and muttering- “pair of upper class twits” :-)””

    Colin, you have let yourself down very badly with this one.

    Obviously your memory has faded so badly that your idea of my views is the polar opposite of what I have been posting here for the last 7/8 years.

    I am one of very few on here who can both praise both Lancastrians who can sound their consonants, having a working-class background, and upper-class lairds and hereditary peers, when they advocate practical and wise policies, and whether or not they pronounce their “rs”.

    I am a Centrist floater, not a class warrior.

  38. @JamesB

    ”Almost certainly not, which was sort of my point. You end up with two unhappy ‘broad churches’ that end up going through phases of being more ‘central’ where they win and less central where they generally don’t”

    ———

    Just because a party wins doesn’t mean it’s more central. A party that’s less central can win if the more central vote is split between more parties.

    Indeed it’s possible that more parties might compete over the central votes.

  39. @Turncoat,

    (” Labour is likely to have policies similar to 2017 which are popular and will resonate with the public and the poll-gap may well start to close.”)

    Might that not already be “baked in” this time? Their manifesto is unlikely to be as much a surprise as last time, and may receive more critical analysis than last time if the prospect of a Labour win is deemed more plausible.

    (“Boris Johnson is regarded by many as untrustworthy by many (including Tory voters). He is also rather gaff-prone and doesn’t handle detail questions well.”)

    Yes, although the pro-Con media have been very forgiving, and the public likewise haven’t blamed him for his failure to meet the 31.10 deadline, even though he already knew about the Benn Act when he promised to meet it.

    He will also receive extensive preparation for major TV appearances.

    (“Brexit party standing in a large number of seats is likely to hurt the tories more than Labour.”)

    That’s probably true. Some have attempted to argue the opposite, at least with respect to specific seats, but it seems to me your view is more plausible and the very best the Tories can hope for is the effect to be neutral. However, the Brexit Party is already included in the polling and they’re getting about 10%. It’s questionable whether they can expect to improve on that. The opposite may even happen if it gets seen as a two-horse race. And if the opposite happens, that may benefit Con (for the same reason, BxP votes being primarily those who would otherwise go Con).

    (“Tactical voting will be prevalent in many seats…especially in remain voting ones in London.”)

    We already seen Remainers unsure who to believe about what the correct tactical vote is – do they base it on the last GE result or on polling since then (some of which is selectively published private polling)? This uncertainty will limit the effect of tactical voting to some extent.

    However, there’s another interesting question – when people answer the pollsters, do they name the party they support, or do they take the question more literally and tell the pollster about their tactical vote?

  40. That ORB Poll sure looks like a start to a bit of narrowing, comparing it to recent polls by other companies that is… ( rather than the supposed 10 point jump in Tory support from the last ORB Poll, taken in early 1066 presumably? )
    Still, we’ll soon know which way the wind’s blowing won’t we?

  41. Davwel

    Fair enough-must have got you mixed up with someone else. :-)

  42. @PC

    “Hate to come over as excessively cynical but can anyone tell me which and how many of the UK’s licences Fracking sites are/did;
    Tory LibDem Marginals.
    Tory Target Seats.
    Voted Leave.
    Voted Remain.
    Peter.”

    ———-

    Well there’s a bit of info. here, Peter:

    https://drillordrop.com/2019/10/12/pm-warned-about-electoral-risk-of-growing-opposition-to-fracking/comment-page-1/#comments

    “The prime minister has been warned that government support for fracking risks losing the Conservatives seats at the general election.

    Polling suggests that support for fracked gas is below 30% in the Conservatives’ most marginal seats.

    Nearly 100 anti-fracking groups and campaigners have now written to Boris Johnson calling for a ban.

    The joint letter, whose signatories include Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, Extinction Rebellion, Ecotricity and Frack Free United, told the prime minister:

    “With over 40 marginal seats in over 170 English parliamentary constituencies affected by exploration licences, the scale of the impact of fracking in the UK should not be underestimated.”

    The letter said the government’s own polling – a quarterly survey by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy – most recently put support for fracking at 15%. And it said:

    “Within your own party, opponents also include a growing number of concerned MPs, councillors and supporters, and the Conservative Environment Network recently called for a ban on fracking.”

    “A briefing accompanying the letter by an academic at York University predicted that fracking would not win votes for the party.

    Briefing on impact of fracking on marginal seats”

    https://investigatingbalcombeandcuadrilla.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/briefing-on-impact-of-fracking-on-marginal-seats.pdf

    “Dr Simon Sweeney, a senior lecturer in international political economy and business, said government aspirations for a gas supply based on fracking would involve hundreds of wells and overwhelming public protest.

    “This will do incredible damage to the Conservative Party in marginal seats. It will cost them those seats, and in rural areas targeted for fracking, the opposition to the industry will be more profound with every passing week, as a threat remains.”

    The polling was carried out in April 2019 for the Conservative Environment Network.

    Dr Sweeney said it revealed particular opposition in the 170+ constituencies which have some area of Petroleum Exploration and Development Licence (PEDL). About 40 of these constituencies are marginal seats.

    He said among 2017 Conservative voters, 74% opposed fracking, while 37% were supportive. Support for onshore wind farms was typically over 80% in marginal constituencies and 78% of voters said reducing CO2 emissions to zero as soon as possible was either important or very important.“

  43. @Colin

    “It amuses me when I hear Ford & Farrell being interviewed.

    Being a nostalgic Northerner I love to hear those two speak.
    And then I think of Davwel & NickP & the rest of the UKPR class warriors , tutting over their Newcastle Brown and muttering- “pair of upper class twits” :-”

    What I admired most about England in defeat is how gracefully they accepted the outcome. They were prompted to discuss possible excuses are flatly refused to do so. They were prompted to refer to how they had played better in the balance of the tournament and refused to do so. They simply acknowledged that SA had been thr better team on the day and deserved to win.

    They will win a lot of friends with their sportsmanship and honesty.

  44. @JimJam

    (non football related discussion. I’m still suffering from some level of post traumatic stress, brought on by events from the 85th minute onwards at Villa Park this afternoon!)

    “Careful targeting could well deliver them 20+ extra seats (from 2017) which again would represent decent progress and a good platform to encourage their move to a European style moderate Centre Right party perfect for attracting part of the Tory Coalition of voters.

    Perhaps by the next GE, should it be 2024, the ROC vote will be split and Labour under a new less toxic leader will benefit in E&W.”

    This is certainly an interesting hypothesis, but I wonder if it’s a likely one. The Lib Dems under both Ashdown and Kennedy drifted the party leftwards and had some electoral rewards for doing so, positioning themselves, certainly on issues like tax, welfare and environment, well to the left of Blair’s Labour. Not only was that attractive to voters but it was also where most of their membership were too. Hence I wonder how far rightwards any Lib Dem leader, including one as centrist as Swinson, could take them without rupturing the party’s grass roots. From my long experience of local campaigning, many Lib Dem members that I’ve met are more viscerally anti-Tory than some of their Labour counterparts!

    The Coalition years, and the repercussions of governing with the Tories, brought them to a near death experience in 2015 and I still see their mid-term direction of travel as a centre-left party, albeit at this election coming, they’re likely to be the beneficiary of disgruntled Remain Tory voters as well as Corbyn-phobic and Remain Labour voters.

    The Parris defection is a significant one and may support your hypothesis to some degree. If ex-Tories like him Woolason, Allen and Sam Gyimah see their natural homes in the Lib Dem party, and influence the party’s policy agenda and leadership, then they may start to be a party more attractive to migrating ROC voters than LOC ones.

    It’s slightly quixotic though, isn’t it, that they seem to be recruiting from the soft Right, both in terms of voters and ex-MPs, yet they say their mission is to supplant Labour as the main centre left party in the UK?

    However, I still think their membership and core vote is essentially a left of centre one and unless they totally reinvent themselves, which I suppose is possible, then I think this will be a factor anchor that anchors them in a leftward position in terms of policy stances.

  45. For all the various and assorted certainties expressed on here, the betting public are currently wholly confused.

    Bill Hill’s current odds are No Overall control – even money; Conservative majority – even money; Labour majority – 12/1.

  46. Thanks, Colin.

    I have seen the value of mixing with, and having good friends with, people from all levels of society.

    When steam trains with proper carriages were replaced by diesel units with negligible luggage space, we Lancastrians to reach our prestigious Southern university hired a big coach. It went round the back streets with terraced houses of both Oldham and Wigan, guided by a clued-up lass from Helmshore, but also picked up private-school folk in more affluent dwellings.

    We mixed regardless of class.

  47. @TOH

    You can believe in whatever politics you want, however I do NOT believe in political donations. What democrat would? And publicising the fact you’ve donated is even more vulgar and unnecessary. Go and stuff a few envelopes and knock on a few doors and I’d have some respect.

    @BANTAMS

    “Do I detect a bit of wealth envy?”

    What a bizarre thing to say. At no point have I mentioned or eluded to wealth. You have no idea of my or TOH’s financial situation.

    Voting for a political party is one thing. Donating to one I always find a bit sinister.

  48. Stephen Dorrell, formerly a Conservative cabinet minister and longtime Conservative MP, will be standing for the Lib Dems in the election.

  49. Didn’t it get partisan in here, all of a sudden. Downright insulting too.

  50. Earlier this week I posted about the unacceptable double spread in the i newspaper that outlined the policies of the “main UK poIitical parties”. It had 6 parties including Plaid, but not the SNP.

    Today we have a very similar double spread, but this time with 7 parties including the SNP.

    I wonder if they threatened to sue the paper. There has been no apology.

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