The first voting intention polls published since the election was called were in this morning’s papers: Survation for the Mail, Ipsos MORI for the Standard and YouGov for the Times. Topline figures were

Survation – CON 34%, LAB 26%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN 1% (tabs)
Ipsos MORI – CON 41%, LAB 24%, LDEM 20%, BREX 7%, GRN 3% (tabs)
YouGov – CON 36%, LAB 21%, LDEM 18%, BREX 13%, GRN 6% (tabs).

There’s quite a spread between the results – Ipsos MORI have the Conservatives up above 40, their highest in any poll since August. YouGov and Survation have them in the mid-thirties. Labour’s support varies between 26% in Survation down to 21% in YouGov. All three have the Lib Dems between 18%-20%. This means while the Conservative lead varies, there is a consistent Conservative lead across the board as we start the campaign.

It’s worth noting that that Tory lead is largely down to a split opposition. Even in the MORI poll the Conservatives have lost support since the election (in the YouGov and Survation polls they’ve lost a lot of support). This is not a popular government – in the MORI poll, their satisfaction rating is minus 55 – it’s just that the main opposition have lost even more support. The healthy Conservative lead is down to the fact that the Conservatives are retaining the bulk of the Leave vote, while the remain vote is split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid and so on.

For as long as this is the case, the Conservatives should do well. If it should change they’ll struggle. If the Brexit party manage to get back into the race and take support from the Tories it would eat into their lead. The other risk for the Tories is if the Remain vote swings more decisively behind either Labour or the Liberal Democrats (or that there are signs of more effective tactical voting, winning seats off the Conservatives despite a split vote). Essentially Boris Johnson needs to keep the Leave vote united and the Remain vote divided.

It is also worth considering how the Conservative lead might translate into seats. In 2017 the Conservative lead over Labour was only two and a half percentage points. You would therefore expect an eight point Conservative lead to translate into a majority, and a fifteen or seventeen point lead to be a landslide. In reality that Survation poll could easily be touch-and-go for a Tory majority and, while the bigger leads would likely get a Tory majority, it may not be landslide territory.

The reason that the Conservatives translated votes more effectively into seats in 2015 and 2017 was to do with the distribution of the vote. The Conservative re-emergence in Scotland meant that Tory votes up there were no longer wasted (but Labour votes increasingly were), the collapse of the Liberal Democrats in the South-West meant that the Tories vote there returned more MPs. If at the coming election we see those trends reverse, and the Conservatives lose seats to the SNP in Scotland and the Lib Dems in the South, then suddenly their votes won’t be translated so effectively into seats, and they’ll need to win more seats off Labour to make up for it.

Right now we have little evidence of how uniform or not the changes in support are, of whether there is evidence of tactical voting (Survation have released a couple of constituency polls they have conducted for the Liberal Democrats showing them doing very well in individual seats, but I don’t think it’s too cynical to imagine that the Lib Dems may have selectively published seats they are doing particularly well in). In the fulness of time I expect we will see the publication of MRP models along the lines of those YouGov conducted in 2017 that may give us a better steer, but I’ll come to that another day.

In the meantime, as we cross the starting line the Conservatives have a clear lead in the polls, but how it translates into seats is unclear. In the polls with the smaller Tory leads, it may not produce a majority at all. Equally, their lead is dependent upon the Leave vote remaining relatively united, and the Remain vote remaining divided, if that changes, the race could end up being far closer.


515 Responses to “The first polls of the campaign”

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  1. Passtherockplease,
    “Yes they may lose in the long term but in the long term lots of other things could happen. By right Labour should have lost after 2003 Iraq invasion went wrong but they did not we acknowledged it was bad but hell 67% of people supported it. ”

    You get a bit over excited about Iraq. What you miss is that Iraq is a foreign country full of foreigners and whatever happens to them does not matter to british voters. If one british granny loses her home help, that is a vote lost. If ten Iraqi grannies are blown up, it makes no difference here.

    yes you agree over likely outcomes of Brexit but you refuse to take it further and consider that the time horizon for politicians is not simply the next election. The conservative party has been in existence for a very long time, and its aim has been to stay in existence. It is currently under threat that it might not. MPs these days are professionals whose career is being an MP. Whatever benefits there are to paying MPs, it does mean we have MPs who are interested in a job for life and then retirement on a nice parliamentary pension.

    A back bench MPs might quite prefer his party stays out of government for the next 40 years so long as he keeps his seat. Even a front bencher might. The party is very likely to prefer a modest loss of MPs to a big future loss and then the potential to be anihilated.

    Brexit has swept away confortable party loyalties, in so much as they still existed at all except as propped up by FPP. It is possible that once brexit ceases to be an issue, voters might desert en masse to libs, greens, someone else who might come along. This debacle has done nothing but discredit both major parties.

    It isnt just predictions for this election which are massively uncertain, but predictions for the future. If con achieve Brexit they bring the house down upon themselves by setting loose voters to redistribute. Not having carried out brexit is what is currently keeping them clinging to power.

    If I was someone who believed brexit would bring prosperity to the nation then I would not think as I have juste described and instead would happily bring on Brexit. But the conservatives have had three years to do that. Whatever they say in public, they do not believe brexit can work or they would have done it. Its no good arguing they are leavers, they have shown they are not.

  2. Well there seems little point in predictions (as opposed to wishlists) until some 10k+ polls happen (and since the election was announced).

    The Panelbase one was 1,001 (pointless!*), and has no regional sample sizes.

    *With such a sample, an MoE of 3.1 equates to 6.2% potential swing. With 31 seats with majorities within 1%**, and the current Parliament, we need more accurate samples. An average of twenty 1,001 polls in twenty days will not do.

    It would be more sensible to have two 10k polls across 2-3 weeks.

    ** http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7979/CBP-7979.pdf (page 68)

    Good link that. It shows a lot of interesting data, such as declaration times, donations, e.g. 66.8% of all registered donations were Tory:

    https://ibb.co/Wx9HFXV

  3. CROSSBAT11/ Nick P

    I don’t know whether this counts as a backlash but…

    England’s back-row all went to state schools and in all, 22 of Eddie Jones’ World Cup squad did not pay for their education between 11 and 15.

  4. SDA
    “There must be many who are uneasy about the polarisation of both main parties.”

    There have been periods when there was hardly anything to choose between the 2.5 main UK parties, which was equally disturbing.
    —————————–
    NickP
    “God knows what the neo Tories want – a return to a feudal system?”

    I prefer the Anglo-Saxon system myself.
    ———————————-
    J S-B
    Good summary of Farage.

  5. Unexpected campaign moment?

    Royal intervention? Minor Royal intervention?
    Bombing by Iran or of Iran?
    Boris at Liverpool FC game?
    MPs with Tory Party whip restored and on ballot paper going off manifesto message calling for second referendum or joining Lib Dems.
    Big Jo calling out wee Nicola.
    Remembrance Sunday, Children In Need politicised.
    Strictly Come Dancing contestant and dancers social media falls foul of Ofcom.

  6. So 22 out of 32 didn’t pay for their education up to 15 years old?

    So 10 did? And going by you not mentioning post 16, I’m guessing the cheque books came out eb masse after that.

    I think the site of them all before the All Blacks match to a man belting out God Save The Queen was amongst the most sick-making sights I’ve seen in sport.

  7. @NICKP

    ”Carfrew – my mate who is a leaver (and stinking Tory) says he voted leave because he believes in free trade and believes the EU is protectionist.
    Which I suppose they are, by definition.“

    ———-

    Well, to some degree, the EU represents a fear of protectionism, because protectionism is seen as contributing to setting off WW2.

    Tariffs tend to be on the lowish side, but then again there are those non-tariff barriers like food standards:

    “Is the European Union a ‘protectionist racket’?”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44291103

    But I doubt being in the EU has stopped the export of some jobs and industry to China and elsewhere.

    And there are attempts to lower barriers further, with TTIP, and the Mercusor deal (which is also attracting criticism).

    However, focusing on the EU (and on contrasting with a possible deal with the States) can obscure the general tendency towards more free trade and the free movement of jobs and capital etc. around the world, the consequences in terms of inequality, being disenfranchised etc., and the reaction to this via all the protests and the election of guys like Trump.

    I’m moving on from Brexit a little, and am a bit more interested in the impacts of globalisation of which the EU is just an aspect.

  8. posting again as it seems the other is stuck in moderation for some reason…

    Overall, the recent analysis of polling by the Financial Times seems the most correct.

    Namely, that the current situation is almost identical to the start of the 2017 general election, except the Tories are 8 points lower in the polls with a far less popular leader than TM.

    One can reasonably expect the following to occur during the campaign;

    1) Election broadcast rules kick in, giving Lab equal TV/Radio airtime with Con
    2) As a result of 1, the Green and LD’s are squeezed out of the debate, and Remain support naturally shifts somewhat to Labour
    3) Lab’s domestic policy agenda grabs a lot of headlines/airtime due to it’s radical nature (wealth taxes etc) – shifting the debate onto non-Brexit territory throughout the campaign

    How much the remain voters shift to Lab will largely dictate the outcome of the election.

    Since we’re making predictions, I believe that Labour will hoover up the Green vote and squeeze a good third of the LD vote. This puts it +8-10 on current polling

    So you could end up with an end result that looks something like;

    Con – 35
    Lab – 35
    LD – 14
    Brex – 10
    Green – 2

    Given the above, my ‘finger in the air’ early prediction in terms of seats is;

    Con – 290
    Lab – 280
    LD – 30
    SNP – 50

    People saying that Con are going to get a majority… how exactly? What seats specifically do you think they will take?

    They’re likely to lose Scotland seats to the SNP, and English seats to the LD’s. How can they take the seats that Theresa May failed to get last time? With a less popular leader and a lower start in the polls?

    If anyone can explain a credible path to a Tory majority, I’m all ears.

  9. Carfrew,
    “What’s handy about this way of looking at it, is that it doesn’t favour a particular party or ideology.”

    But whats not handy about it, is it is completely incompatible with FPP system of elections.

    Maybe the stability and cohesion of Scottish politics has to do as much with giving them a proportional legislature which has had to cooperate more amongst diverse groups?

  10. Will any of the various party leaders win it during the campaign? Can they win it?
    Or can they just lose it during the campaign?

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1190314293155237889
    and
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1190580636651851777

  11. I seem to recall the last election being interrupted by 2 nasty terrorist attacks.

    Be nice to miss out on those this time.

  12. @Danny

    “But whats not handy about it, is it is completely incompatible with FPP system of elections.

    Maybe the stability and cohesion of Scottish politics has to do as much with giving them a proportional legislature which has had to cooperate more amongst diverse groups?”

    ————-

    Well it’s a view that is independent of the electoral system. It’s just noting that the centre does not necessarily lie with a particular ideology, which can be true despite FPTP.

    As for stability in politics, we had “stability” for decades, since the main parties tended to be various shades of ‘liberal”. What’s shaken things up a bit is Brexit, and how it hasn’t yet been delivered. (If the Scots had voted Yes to independence but then seen years of delay and disagreement over the best form of “Scoxit”, then maybe that might have had an impact on stability).

  13. LIBDEMS OVERTAKING LABOUR?

    I noticed some posters were talking about this possibility the other day, so I ran some figures through Electoral Calculus. It turns out that even if the Libs were polling at 10% above Labour (e.g. 35% to 25%) they would still be 53 seats behind Labour. This is because LAB and CON support is ‘lumpy’ whereas LIB support is ‘smooth’.

    Sorry if anyone is disappointed!

  14. “Some intrigue might lie in how these cuckoos wound up taking over the Conservatives in the first place. (And taking over Labour).”

    Well they allowed them to win, because FPTP.

    “When the Liberals were in charge in those parties, the rest mostly went along with it”

    Because it was meaning they won, because FPTP.

    ” the Liberals are not necessarily so keen to go along with it and let the others have their turn,”

    Because it means they don’t win, other than by being ‘less worse’ (FPTP again)

    “Yes, I think the gradual loosening of the grip of mainstream media and the rise of social media, blogs etc., is allowing a return to a broader range of views in politics, like we had in the days when more people participated in politics locally, went to political events etc.”

    If anything social media is just putting people in bubbles and making parties swing to the extremes and FPTP keeps them from dying, as it is in the US also. The polling has been telling us for some time that neither labour nor tories have a net positive view in the eyes of the public, but they’ll likely still pick up the bulk of the seats again.

  15. PTRP

    Thanks for the posts.I agree with what you say about Swinson – though the BBC will ensure that she gets lots of air time in comparison with,for example, the SNP. She has not been corrected by the BBC when claiming that the Lib Dems are the largest Remain party.

    That article on ASDA is interesting. I get a sense that the workforce has not been as well informed about the negotiations as it might be. This link might interest you. GMB might be doing a bit more to explore for itself the impact of the new, “more flexible” arrangements on female staff. The company should but won’t. Will “flexibilty” in practice extend to being available for work during the unpaid breaks, if necessary?

    https://rightsinfo.org/asda-workers-threatened-with-sack/

  16. Hate to come over as excessively cynical but can anyone tell me which and how many of the UK’s licences Fracking sites are/did;

    Tory LibDem Marginals.
    Tory Target Seats.
    Voted Leave.
    Voted Remain.

    Peter.

  17. @Statgeek

    There’s no point in going much above 1000 respondents, and certainly not above 2000, with the current state of polling.

    Panelbase is predicting 40% Con nationally, Survation is predicting 34%. 1000 respondents, so +/-3% on both. So either the real figure is 37% and those are both at least 1-in-20 outliers (so at least 1-in-400 that they both are that far out, more, if they’re not equally wrong) or at least one of them has some systematic sample, turnout model and/or weighting error with a magnitude of a few percent on the Con vote.

    On the other side, YouGov did a 1750 poll and a 10000 poll recently, which got exactly the same results to within a percent or so (which could easily be explained by different fieldwork dates, as well as random variation).

    A bigger poll might have more reliable cross-breaks, but as Anthony pointed out (somewhere, ages ago) cross-breaks aren’t internally weighted, so 10 regional polls of 1000 will do better than 1 national poll of 10000.

  18. @nickp
    Good point and very good sentiment on recent external election interventions.
    I think that Exterminate Rebellion and other climate change protestors blocking the voters path and gluing themselves to doors to polling booths may be a factor this time.

  19. People saying Conservative HQ will try its best to keep Boris away from harsh interviewers and any potential conflict with people over previous racist remarks and untruths he’s made in various speeches and columns.

    Sounds a bit Theresa May ’17 to me – the people didn’t like her wrapped up in bubble wrap and rolled round the country from staged photo op to photo op.

    Jezza’s got this one sewn up ;)

  20. @ Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    “Will any of the various party leaders win it during the campaign? Can they win it?
    Or can they just lose it during the campaign?

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1190314293155237889
    and
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1190580636651851777

    Firstly, what a horrendous table cloth, and bizarre furniture set-up in general.

    Secondly, a decent photo opportunity only marred by the fact it looks like someone quickly tossed him an England rugby shirt to put over his formal white shirt!

    #sad

  21. Afternoon all from a rather wind swept PSRL

    On Boris voter appeal, I think its fair to say its relatively untested in the types of constituencies Cons are targeting. His success in London relied on appealing to moderate/liberal voters, and in the Ref it was more about getting the trad Tory voters on side. The Labour leaning voters who did vote leave did so as an anti-establishment statement and not due to Johnson’s appeal.

    Currently most would have had limited exposure to him, or what they have seem would be via the favourable filter of the BBC and other mainstream media outlets. How his bumbling public school persona will land in trad wc seats during an election is open to question.

  22. MOG

    Stick with my original numbers.

  23. Do others feel the distaste that I do for Trumps pronouncement about a potential Democrat Presidential candidate having to pull out of the contest. The guy’s Democrat adversaries were all very gracious in their comments about the him leaving, but Trump was just downright, uncalled for loutish. Any other President would have been diplomatic in their reaction. Trump keeps on polishing an image of an ill educated bullying brat.

  24. Good Evening from a wet and stormy Bournemouth East where Manchester United lost again here, sadly, for me, anyway.

    BREXIT does seem to be an issue as SHEVII wrote here, that reaches into old Labour areas.

    The leadership team in the Labour Party lacks appeal, I think to many of ‘the many’.

    Winners seem to be able to appeal to the voters’ self interest as well as to altruism.

  25. @GarJ

    “A lot of optimism from our LoC posters that we’re going to see an even bigger polling turnaround than in the last election, which in itself was probably the largest polling turnaround in 50 years.”

    At the start of the 2017 campaign, the difference between Cons and Labour varied from about 20-25%, so this time actually won’t need an even bigger turnaround – it will need a smaller one for the Tories to lose.

  26. PTRP

    “So I am left in awe of the physicality and the skill of both sides.”

    “I did note that Matt Dawson saying that no one in the SA team would make it in the England team which I can say from their performance today was complete rubbish.”

    “Congratulations to South Africa.

    Totally agree with all the above points. I would also add my congratulations to the Japanese who organised what has been a wonderful Rugby World Cup and showed us their own brand of Rugby which was full of skill and excitement.

  27. @JAMESB


    Well they allowed them to win, because FPTP.”

    ”Because it was meaning they won, because FPTP.“

    “Because it means they don’t win, other than by being ‘less worse’ (FPTP again)“

    ————

    Well you say it’s FPTP, but the media have quite an impact on what happens under FPTP, as indeed under other systems.

    And also, the liberals didn’t get that much resistance when they took over. Whereas liberals have been hampering quite a bit since others got a go, even if those others were doing ok despite all the sabotage.

  28. DANNY

    “If I was someone who believed brexit would bring prosperity to the nation then I would not think as I have juste described and instead would happily bring on Brexit.”

    As a Conservative member I would be very happy to see Brexit start to happen at last, even though there is much about the BJ WA that I don’t like. I shall certainly be voting Conservative and my donation towards the election fighting fund has already been accepted.

    I think this is the most important British election since the 1979 election.

  29. NIckP

    “I think the site of them all before the All Blacks match to a man belting out God Save The Queen was amongst the most sick-making sights I’ve seen in sport.”

    Fascinating, I thought it glorious. I suspect we have very different political views!
    (and views about everything else for that matter)

  30. “ and my donation towards the election fighting fund has already been accepted!”

    Candy from a Baby!

    Peter.

  31. @JAMESB

    “If anything social media is just putting people in bubbles and making parties swing to the extremes and FPTP keeps them from dying, as it is in the US also. The polling has been telling us for some time that neither labour nor tories have a net positive view in the eyes of the public, but they’ll likely still pick up the bulk of the seats again.”

    ———-

    Some social media can have that effect where news feeds are tailored to their interests, but the more general availability of information means people are able to get a broader range of views.

    You see this more among the young, where polling shows they are less polarised compared to the oldies who tend to stick to the mainstream media.

    It’s an interesting effect with the young though, in that they might be even more socially liberal, but less so economically, more interested in redistribution etc., worried about the impact of trade on the environment, the way they’re being deprived economically compared to the older, the hoovering up by the one percent etc.

    If you look at this survey from the LSE:

    http://www.lse.ac.uk/[email protected]/research/ABetterBrexitforYoungPeople/A%20Better%20Brexit%20for%20Young%20People.pdf

    “Anger at UK political institutions is flaring on both sides of the Brexit debate. Evidence from referendum voting patterns appears to support the perception of an ‘old’ nation that is robbing its youth of their future, and fuelling the embers of youth discontent. Our focus groups reveal young Britons’ engagement with multiple aspects of the local, regional and national civic sphere, their critical analysis and deep anxieties about post-Brexit futures. Issues of fairness – in economics, community cohesion, mental health, identity, generational cohorts, and towards migrants and refugees – loomed large, all framed by wariness towards or open distrust of the current government and the British media.

    Our analysis of the findings supports the view that ‘fake news’ is in the news, and that young people’s trust in mainstream media political messages, appears to be equally low. With legitimate anxieties about housing, education, jobs, debt, and the future at the forefront of their minds, young people who were both pro- and anti-Brexit in our focus groups insisted that the UK government should enact Brexit in equitable ways. Overall, the young people in our focus groups uniformly voiced their support for social justice in both economic and cultural domains across a range of issues.”

  32. MOG

    Leave the numbers as i first posted them.

    Thanks

  33. THE OTHER HOWARD.
    Hello to you. from, I think, the other side of the political aisle.
    The 1979 GE comparison is apt, I think. I was finishing my PGCE year in Manchester, so it has vivid memories for me.

    I think that many people on the left of the aisle will secretly agree that the leadership of the Labour Party and their policies make them unfit to be elected, while at the same time Brexit will, I think, turn out to be a medium term failure for the country.

  34. The Other Howad,
    ” I shall certainly be voting Conservative and my donation towards the election fighting fund has already been accepted.”

    Have you not noticed though, how they have managed to stall Brexit for three years?

    It isnt obvious to me that BJs manfesto will be much different to May’s on getting the hard brexit deal done quickly. If he performs as well as her it will be -20 MPs and two more years delay and muddle, before another election.

  35. Chrislane1945,
    ” I think that many people on the left of the aisle will secretly agree that the leadership of the Labour Party and their policies make them unfit to be elected,”

    Those would be the policies endorsed by voters on the right of the aisle, when asked without telling them which party had proposed them?

    As a case in point, labour says it will ban fracking, and then con today come out with a moratorium on same. Labour policies seem very popular.

    As to the leadeship…there really isnt any evidence of unfitness to lead the nation. How does JC’s behaviour compare to BJ, who with the benefit of actually being in office has illegally tried to close parliament and, to put it politely, keeps contradicting his own statements.

  36. Statgeek (12:36)
    Very interesting link, thanks. It’s bookmarked now, I’m sure I’ll use it again.
    ————————————
    NickP
    “I think the site of them all before the All Blacks match to a man belting out God Save The Queen was amongst the most sick-making sights I’ve seen in sport.”

    What a sad, bitter life you must have.
    —————————–
    JamesB
    “The polling has been telling us for some time that neither labour nor tories have a net positive view in the eyes of the public…”

    Does any party? Genuine question.

  37. TOBYEBERT

    Well, for starters, Lab plus LD is not going to total 60%. If the Lib Dems hit 35% then, in all likelihood, Labour will be plumbing the depths at 15% or less (at least in this election). They are also starting from a very low base. If their support gets up to those sort of levels it will have gone up fivefold. Prediction models aren’t intended to handle that kind of change, they might show it as very smooth but in practice there would be plenty of lumps.

  38. Lewblew

    People saying Labour HQ will try and keep Corbyn away from interviews because of racism within his party and his untruths over the NHS being sold off.

    Sounds like last time when we only ever saw Corbyn preaching to the converted with no out of party line questions allowed.

    Johnson’s got this one sewn up :-)

    See it’s easy to quote ‘people’ and just as pointless.

  39. DANNY.
    Hello to you.
    I am not trying to argue that the current PM is fit to govern either.

  40. More on leadership approval ratings and comparing GE’19 to GE’17

    When May called GE’17 she was almost 40% above Corbyn in approval rating (and CON were roughly 20% ahead in VI)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#May_vs_Corbyn

    Corbyn closed that gap to sub 10% (and shortly after the GE he was in the lead)

    Boris has a 20%ish lead over Corbyn (and CON are roughly 10% ahead in VI)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Johnson_vs_Corbyn

    Hence a crude proxy[1] for VI lead = Leadership Approval / 2

    If LAB want to close the VI gap on CON then Corbyn needs to close the approval rating gap with Boris (as he did against May in GE’17). Also note Boris’s approval isn’t exactly that high so it’s not impossible Boris opens up a larger lead on approval ratings (which would probably translate to a larger lead in VI)

    Will lightening strike twice?!? TBC

    [1] Very crude proxy!!! Also note this is a 4-way GE and not a 2 horse race (see earlier comments about the importance of winning the x-break battles)

  41. PETEB

    Just wait till the Class Warriors are in charge. Sad & Bitter won’t begin to describe it.

  42. @Danny.
    Exactly. If some on the left think Corbyn/his team would be poor enough a leader (relative to Johnson of course) to not warrant a vote, then fair enough. But I don’t buy the argument that Labour’s current policies would alienate anyone on the left for a second. Sounds like spin to me, say it a thousand times and hope that it rubs off a little bit. If what Labour is proposing is being propagandized as the “extreme” left, then the Conservatives can have no complaints about exaggeration and sloganeering flung in their direction, eg “far right coup”, “nasty party” etc. Honestly, I’d just prefer a rational look at the pros/cons of policy proposals on all sides and their workability.

  43. @ PETE B – To the extent view on leader is a proxy for view on party[1] the Boris is near zero (UK wide) and Nicola is near zero (Scottish voters). The other leaders are all viewed negatively.

    Huff Post is Remain press but they point out the “hold you nose” issues that will apply to this GE (although note the 24% they claim is pretty close to the % of tactical voting in GE’17)

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/general-election_uk_5db2d381e4b0ea02257c4f88

    Kudos belongs to JJ from ages ago who came up with the view:

    ABL = CON
    ABC = LAB
    ABL + ABC = LDEM

    (ie it’s not about voting for who you want as much as who you don’t want)

    NB More complex if a NAT is involved but if Indy is the dominant dimension in Scotland then:

    Indy = SNP
    Non-Indy = Best ABSNP option

    [1] If the polling question asks “govt” then the score is much lower than Boris (see slide 7 in latest Ipsos-Mori which also has long histories of PM, govt and LOTO approval ratings slides 10, 11 and 13)

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/conservatives-strengthen-position-latest-ipsos-mori-political-monitor

  44. DANNY

    “Have you not noticed though, how they have managed to stall Brexit for three years?”

    I am happy to agree that brexit has been badly handled so far by politicians, particularly those of Remain belief. I look forward to progress at last as i said. I think your Conservative Brexit conspiracy theories absolute tosh in respect of a majority of Tory MP’s and members.

    CHRISLANE45

    Hello to you as well Chris. I tend to agree with you about the Labour leadership but longterm I expect Brexit to be a success.

  45. Peter Cairms SNP

    “Candy from a Baby!”

    It will be interesting to see which of us is laughing at that one after the election.

  46. So I’ve “reversed engineered” B4Bs tactical voting website:

    “Tactical voting (TV) could swing over 80 seats and prevent Tory majority”

    I make it 86 seats and I’ve left out Scotland as that’s a bit more tricky!

    Beyond seat changes that do not benefit from TV (as party is “predicted”[1] to win the seat anyway) the following seats could be won with a 30% TV from the party least likely to win the seat (out of LAB or LDEM with Green assumed to always TV in every seat other then Brighton Pavilion)

    TV would allow LDEM to also take

    Putney
    Portsmouth South
    Wimbledon
    Colchester
    Brecon and Radnorshire[2]
    Sutton and Cheam

    For LAB, they’d get 78 extra seats if 30% of “predicted” LDEM and Green VI instead vote LAB (I’m not going to list all of those!)

    That seems somewhat unfair IMHO and LDEM need to decide if they want PM Corbyn or want to “go long” and use GE’19 as a “stepping stone” to become the “Rejoin” party (and work on % and getting a lot more “2nd places” in this GE).

    NB Many of seats will be tricky to allocate the best TV option for (eg LAB would say they have the best shot at Colchester but if you check the history of that seat then IMO (and EC’s numbers) then LDEM are the best TV pick). IMO you should knock out 30 of the potential TV gains due to the “confusion” of which party is best suited to win in each seat

    PS At 50% TV from BXP VI then CON would win an extra 56 seats and the TV option is obvious – Vote CON
    (I use a higher number as various polling suggests BXP to CON are more willing to “lend votes” than either LAB or LDEM are to each other). If you combine both sets of TV then it’s a bit messy but is close to netting out (small net gain to “Remain”)

    [1] They use Electoral Calculus (EC) and see a post a few days back on how you can “recreate” their numbers and “play around” with the data in excel to see the impact of various TV approaches.

    [2] Which they won in by-election but didn’t have in GE’17

  47. Not too downheartened with Saints’ late loss to Man City as it was far better than last week’s dismality, but it’s a shame it didn’t bring them any closer to Liverpool in the end. Delighted for Bournemouth though.

    @TURK

    No, I think May was famous for avoiding the public in 2017 and it sounds like Johnson’s going to be doing the same. Not a great tactic, as the public latches onto it quite quickly. Whether it’s reality or mere perception, Corbyn is seen by most as being happy to mix with real people at his rallies and publicity stunts, whereas most Tories come across as scared of meeting real people and totally out of touch, which I suppose they are, what with their moats and duck houses.

    @TOH

    “I shall certainly be voting Conservative and my donation towards the election fighting fund has already been accepted.”

    Well I just vomited.

  48. Error in last post. With 30% TV from Remain and 30% TV from Leave then it’s a small net gain for Remain

    At 30% for Remain and 50% for Leave then it’s a small net gain for Leave.

    IMO 30% and 50% are “optimistic” so these numbers are IMO maximums but it’s handy to see the individual seat “possibilities” given you might get some weird 25-1 long shot bets ;)

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