Prorogation polling

Three polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation – have so far released polling on the government’s decision to prorogue Parliament in mid-September.

YouGov polled on the issue twice – a snap poll on the day of the announcement itself, with the same question repeated overnight. The on-the-day figures were 27% acceptable, 47% unacceptable, 26% don’t know. The follow-up poll had a similar split, but with the number of don’t knows dropping off as people became aware of the story – 31% said it was acceptable, 53% unacceptable, 16% don’t know. Tabs are here)

Ipsos MORI did an unusual online poll (almost alone among pollsters these days, most of their polling is done by phone). They found 30% thought the decision to prorogue Parliament was right, 46% thought it was wrong. Tables are here.

Finally there was a Survation poll for today’s Daily Mail. This found a closer result, with the public fairly evenly split – 39% were supportive, 40% opposed (note this is rounding the totals for support/oppose after they’ve been summed, hence the apparent discrepancy with the tables). Tables are here.

Overall it looks as if the public are opposed to the prorogation decision – though it is unclear to what degree. Whether that really matters or will make any dent in the government’s support is a different matter. Opposition to prorogation is concentrated among Remainers (in YouGov 82% of Remainers think the move is unacceptable, but only 24% of Leavers, in MORI’s poll 74% of Remainers think it was wrong, only 20% of Leavers, in Survation 74% Remainers, 14% leavers). If most of the opposition to the move comes from people who are opposed to the government’s policy anyway (and I expect the more fervent opposition comes from those who were most fervently opposed already) the government are hardly likely to worry too much over losing the crucial “people who hated us anyway” vote.

Both YouGov and Survation included voting intention in their surveys:

YouGov’s topline figures were CON 33%(-1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4), BREX 12%(-1), GRN 7%(-1)
Survation’s topline figures were CON 31%(+3), LAB 24%(nc), LD 21%(nc), BREX 14%(-2), GRN 3%(nc)

Changes in the YouGov poll are from a poll earlier this week, before the announcement. In Survation changes are from a poll three weeks ago. There is a little movement up and down, but certainly nothing that suggests the announcement has done immediate damage to Conservative support.


3,389 Responses to “Prorogation polling”

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  1. @MY HOW WE LAUGHED
    “Senior Lib Dem saying that coalition or C&S with Labour post-GE while Corbyn is leader is not going to happen.”

    Experience tells us that Lib Dems will forget all that for the leather of a ministerial car and a red briefcase!

    Whether Labour would countenance sharing power with the handmaidens of austerity is another matter.

  2. How can the pollsters show Con leads ranging from 1% to 12%

    This range surely goes beyond normal error margins.

    This is a polling site so do people really have any theories as to why the polls are so useless at the moment?

  3. HIRETON
    Hear hear.

    My memory of the coalition is that the likes of Laws, rather than trying to protect the poor against the savage austerity cuts , embraced them.

    Alexander et al were in full agreement with the Tories that the effects of the financial crash were all labour’s fault. They were to blame for austerity.
    Hard to forgive.

    At best, Swinson’s refusal to deal with a Corbyn led government shows her naivety and lack of nous.

    Never say never.

  4. HIRETON
    Hear hear.

    My memory of the coalition is that the likes of Laws, rather than trying to protect the poor against the savage austerity cuts , embraced them.

    Alexander et al were in full agreement with the Tories that the effects of the financial crash were all labour’s fault. They were to blame for austerity.
    Hard to forgive.

    At best, Swinson’s refusal to deal with a Corbyn led government shows her naivety and lack of nous.

    Never say never.

  5. RAF: Now everyone is a product of their experiences and their environment and it’s clear that being a Scottish LD is a big reason for Swinson’s approach. She is much closer to the Tories because in Scotland the unionist/nationalist divide is more significant than any other policy division. Consequently, she is much more comfortable chasing Tory seats in middle England than Labour seats in metropolitan areas. Other than Brexit, why would an urban Labour vote cast their ballot for the current LDs?

    On the Scottish angle of this, I agree and I think it is largely being ignored.

    ON recently explained that Scottish is divided into 4, based on unequal quadrants of pro- and anti-EU and pro- and anti-union. The SNP dominate the pro-EU anti-union quadrant, which is the largest of them all and also are probably by default leading with the smaller anti-EU anti-union quadrant.

    On the pro-union side, this is occupied by LDs and the tories, both of which were also pro-EU. Davidson was holding her own as pro-union and pro-EU for a while, but that has become untenable, because the UK wide tory anti-EU stance now leaves the Scottish tories with no room to be pro-EU.

    Although in Scottish terms, BxP are not meaningfully pro-union, the Scottish tories now find that they are sharing the anti-EU pro-union quadrant with them and they are now in something of a squeeze.

    Meanwhile, the LDs now have the pro-EU pro-union quadrant to themselves.

    Labour are out of the ring at the moment, suffering from being tied to the indecisive UK Labour policy on brexit while on the union, they are pro but keep on being undermined by UK Labour positioning itself for post GE deals.

    In the longer term, I expect to see the LD’s become the default pro-union party in Scotland. Despite the apparent lack of coherence between the 2017 elected LD’s and the new recruits from both sides, if LDs chase those tory seats they ca acquire with a pro EU stance, I expect a fairly coherent somewhat RoC LD party to emerge and leave no room for the tories to present themselves as One Nation.

  6. Tony – best I can offer is that house affects can account for as much as a 6% difference in the Cons lead and the rest is MOE.

    So YG 9% and Cons Res 3% due to methodology can get to 12% and 1% due to MOE for either.

    Maybe only 4% due to method so 8% and 4% equate and then the MOE kicks in on top and if the MOE is wider for one and narrower for the other we end up with an 11% difference.

    Of course statistically roughly 1 in 20 polls is just rogue and the 14% Cons lead may be that one recently.

    Best ignore the VIs from one pollster to the next and look at the trends. I think a slight narrowing probably 1-2% in the last week or 2 but nothing one can say with confidence.

    NB) Polls can be all over the place during conference season, we may see an LF boost for example next week due to more coverage.

    Sacrilege on a polling site maybe but probably need to wait until the first full week of October for any sense of narrowing or widening, not just between Lab and Cons but between various parties.

  7. @Tony @Jim Jam

    There is one big ‘house effect’, which is false recall. All pollsters that ask questions now about voting in the past (whether in GE or referenda) run the risk that people who have changed their mind since then will recall their vote as what they believe now not how they voted then, and that will affect polls which weight by previous voting intention.

    In this respect, the YouGov approach of using panels where the voting question was asked at the time of voting are less likely to suffer from false recall (although buyer’s remorse can set in as soon as the result of an election is known).

  8. crossbat11: Where Swinson is making a potential mistake however, and she compounded it in her interview with Marr this morning, is advertising her hostility to Corbyn in such personally vitriolic terms. Not only is she burning potentially useful future bridges, she may be alienating wavering Labour voters who might, through the fog of recent memory, recall Swinson’s enthusiastic membership of Cameron’s coalition government.

    I suspect, if Labour are sensible, those memories will be revived constantly during a General Election campaign.

    Will the real Jo Swinson please stand up? A true Liberal or potential Tory stooge once again?

    She is aiming to take over from the tories, who are squeezed from the right by BxP. It has mileage in Scotland because it is enough to be pro-EU and it has further mileage in England with BxP doing some of the heavy lifting of making the tories tack too far right.

    Once you see that as her aim, it actually looks quite sensible to dis Corbyn, because I don’t think that they can afford to look as if they might actively put Corbyn in. If a GE turns up the possibility of Lab, SNP and LD, I would not expect LD to go further than C&S and to make Corbyn going as the price even for that. If Corbyn were to run a minority government [he might have to], support would be vote by vote and I would expect informal arrangements quite quickly.

    If you look at the DUP, they have done quite well with C&S, which seems to offer potential for heavy influence on a few issues. I think that the LDs could do similar over brexit issues on informal vote by vote arrangements. What is there for them not to like? It’s better than a coalition, in that they avoid complicity and avoid being put in the position of fall guys like they were with the tories.

  9. @Tony BGT

    You gov do adjust for false recall (see https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/17/false-recall-and-how-it-affects-polling).

    I’m not sure the others do.

    I’m currently reviewing regional breakdown YG vs Comres, and there are marked difference over Labour.

    For example, polls fro 5-6 Sep 19:

    Region – Comres – YouGov

    London

    Con 21 – 22
    Lab 24 – 24
    LD 21 – 19
    BXP 11 – 7
    DK 15 – 13

    Okay looks similar, but…

    Rest of South

    Con 30 – 29
    Lab 23 – 12
    LD 15 – 17
    BXP 10 – 10
    DK 16 – 15

    Midlands Wales

    Con 28 – 29
    Lab 24 – 12
    LD 14 – 11
    BXP 13 – 9
    PC 3 – 1
    DK 10 – 17

    North

    Con 21 – 20
    Lab 33 – 33
    LD 13 – 9
    BXP 13 – 12
    DK 12 – 15

    Scotland

    Con 17 – 16
    Lab 13 – 10
    LD 10 – 9
    BXP 6 – 3
    SNP 32 – 36
    DK 17 – 17

    ———————————–

    I need to check more polls to see if the sub groups are stable, but those Labour groups are very much marked down with Yougov.

    Which pollster is right?

    Ask me after the next GE ;-)

  10. Correction

    @Tony BGT

    You gov do adjust for false recall (see https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/17/false-recall-and-how-it-affects-polling).

    I’m not sure the others do.

    I’m currently reviewing regional breakdown YG vs Comres, and there are marked difference over Labour.

    For example, polls fro 5-6 Sep 19:

    Region – Comres – YouGov

    London

    Con 21 – 22
    Lab 24 – 24
    LD 21 – 19
    BXP 11 – 7
    DK 15 – 13

    Okay looks similar, but…

    Rest of South

    Con 30 – 29
    Lab 23 – 12
    LD 15 – 17
    BXP 10 – 10
    DK 16 – 15

    Midlands Wales

    Con 28 – 29
    Lab 24 – 12
    LD 14 – 11
    BXP 13 – 9
    PC 3 – 1
    DK 10 – 17

    North

    Con 21 – 20
    Lab 33 – 23
    LD 13 – 9
    BXP 13 – 12
    DK 12 – 15

    Scotland

    Con 17 – 16
    Lab 13 – 10
    LD 10 – 9
    BXP 6 – 3
    SNP 32 – 36
    DK 17 – 17

    ———————————–

    I need to check more polls to see if the sub groups are stable, but those Labour groups are very much marked down with Yougov.

    Also a bit odd that London and Scotland Labour look similar.

    Which pollster is right?

    Ask me after the next GE ;-)

  11. Some adjustment for false recall is probably appropriate but I have seen it said that those falsely recalling are often flavour of the month respondents who may well not actually have votes for anyone but for some strange reason (even as part of an on-line panel) don’t wish to appear apathetic so say x.

    In this context, even though Labour did not win the last GE they were seen as having the most successful GE of the 4 main parties. So in the days after the GE they were flavour of the month which probably led to some immediate false recollection of some respondents claiming to have voted Labour.
    These voters would now typically say someone else and even falsely recall how they falsely said they voted at the time.

    Up shot, this amateur thinks YGs adjustment is valid but over done.

  12. It is ironic that Guardian (left of centre/ remain) commissioned polls with Opinium producing good polls for the Brexit cause whilst Sunday Express(Pro Brexit/Tory) Com Res polls producing good remain/ anti Tory figures. Does not help either with the lead headlines

  13. @Technicolouroctober

    “She is aiming to take over from the tories, who are squeezed from the right by BxP.”

    That’s an interesting theory but, as a political strategy for the Lib Dems, I wonder how much mileage there is in it for them. Can she drag enough of her members and lifelong voters with her if she tries to fill the centre-right territory ceded by the current Tory Party? There is also still quite a bit of antipathy from dyed-in-the-wool, not particularly right wing, Tories both to the Lib Dems as a party generally and to many of the policy positions they’ve traditionally held. Wouldn’t centre left voters alienated by Corbyn be more fertile ground for them and wouldn’t/couldn’t these type of voters be put off by a rightward drift and a tack towards replacing the Tories?

    Agree with you totally on the C&S arrangements, by the way, and how they might entertain these with a putative minority Labour administration. A formal coalition is probably out of the question, but they may swallow a Corbyn led minority government in the short term in exchange for some policy sweeteners.

  14. I will be interested to see what the EU makes of the meetings tomorrow that Johnson and Barclay have with Juncker and Barnier respectively.

    From RTE. Barclay -“There’s been a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes. We can see a landing zone in terms of a future deal but there is significant work still to do,”

  15. Where is Anthony? If he is well and reading this I think many of us would welcome his take on the beyond MOE variances in the latest polls. I’m confused…..

  16. @JJ

    Best ignore the VIs from one pollster to the next and look at the trends. I think a slight narrowing probably 1-2% in the last week or 2 but nothing one can say with confidence.

    I’ve plotted the region YG graphs from 6th June to now:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1ThPGIeuwSzrf4kosqoqwdzYeFOVIXTsj

    It does look like a modest reduction of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour (apart from Scotland, where the SNP rule supreme and the other parties look like bald men fighting over a comb).

  17. @SAM
    “I will be interested to see what the EU makes of the meetings tomorrow that Johnson and Barclay have with Juncker and Barnier respectively.

    From RTE. Barclay -“There’s been a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes. We can see a landing zone in terms of a future deal but there is significant work still to do,””

    I think the madness of no deal is well and truly over.

    DUP already signalling they are warm to compromise (as if they would survive electorally without doing so!), ERG now talking compromise.

    Could have got all this sorted a year + ago, but that’s politics!

    As I wrote a few days ago, the likelyhood of a GE receding. Expect politicians to start blaming long nights and poor weather to delay until Summer 2020 or beyond.

  18. @Tony Dean

    “Where is Anthony? If he is well and reading this I think many of us would welcome his take on the beyond MOE variances in the latest polls. I’m confused…..”

    Anthony does occasionally provide some commentary on this and while he is understandably a little pro-You Gov in his analysis (and employees don’t normally dis their employers, do they?!!), he usually refers us to past accuracy records and how differing methodologies between pollsters might explain the success rates or not. He regards You Gov’s false recall safeguarding as the reason that they tend differ with most other pollsters and, as you would expect, believes that this makes the more accurate pollster. I would imagine that this argument would apply again from Anthony to explain why YouGov have got the Tories 14% ahead when other pollsters, with fieldwork done at the same time, have much smaller Tory leads.

  19. Frankly, if Swinson does any sort of deal with the Tories, after what they did to Clegg et al in 2010-2015 and during the 2015 election, they deserve what they get (Clegg too, got what he deserved, for bringing his party down from 57 seats to just eight).

    The Tories targeted Clegg’s seats in 2015 in the SW, and they made up the difference. Then in 2017, they targeted specified Scottish seats with a ‘unionist vote’ and paper candidate strategy, winning +12 in Scotland. However, they lost -13 overall, so -25 across E&W (mostly to Lab).

    Ruth is gone though, and I doubt her successor can do the business. Carlaw is too abrasive for most voters, and The Prof is too inclined to talk to the media. Ruth was very astute at prepared speeches, and no-shows when it suited her.

    Of course, one of the main problems Swinson has is that the once ripe fruit in the Labour party from 2014 to 2017 has already been picked.

    The SNP took a large cut from Lab and Lib in 2015, and the Libs got squeezed as Con and Lab took back some SNP voters in 2017.

    All a party needs to do to lose a voter for 20 years, is make a single mistake. Lab’s in 2014 was pulling out every stop to defeat Yes, to the detriment of less well off voters. Lib’s was Clegg’s coalition / u-turns. The Tories didn’t do much more than be the best of the rest, both in VI terms, and tactical voting terms.

    If recent Scottish CBs are anywhere near accurate, things are looking very bleak for the unionist parties:

    https://ibb.co/syL3sC0

  20. @Crossbat 11

    Many thanks for your response. That all makes sense. I have had a gut feeling that the corrective measures used after the debacle of 2015 in the under estimation of Conservative support have caused a slightly too strong corrective? Just as a matter of past facts which polling company got closest to the 2017 result?

  21. crossbat11: @Technicolouroctober: “She is aiming to take over from the tories, who are squeezed from the right by BxP.”

    That’s an interesting theory but, as a political strategy for the Lib Dems, I wonder how much mileage there is in it for them. Can she drag enough of her members and lifelong voters with her if she tries to fill the centre-right territory ceded by the current Tory Party? There is also still quite a bit of antipathy from dyed-in-the-wool, not particularly right wing, Tories both to the Lib Dems as a party generally and to many of the policy positions they’ve traditionally held. Wouldn’t centre left voters alienated by Corbyn be more fertile ground for them and wouldn’t/couldn’t these type of voters be put off by a rightward drift and a tack towards replacing the Tories?

    The tories show every sign of being away with the fairies at the moment and I think they may be some time. I think Swinson can carry her members some way due to her position as leader. She does not have to move far to attract moderate tories as these are homeless right now and a few high profile defections is enough to show many of them the way. As for the centre left, if they are anti tory and anti brexit, then the LD’s might be attractive.

    I can imagine some leftish people might lend a vote to help the LD’s replace the tories on the right if they felt that a left vote in their constituency would not yield a sufficiently pro EU result. Couple this with tories fog-horning about how dangerous Corbyn is, resulting in people from the right thinking that Corbyn is the only thing to worry about and feeling liberated to vote LibDem. It is not a strategy which will produce an outright win, but I do think it provides a sustainable base with growth potential for the LibDems.

  22. For what it’s worth, that CB predicts:

    SNP 56
    Lib 2 (Carmichael and Swinson survive)
    Con 1 (Lamont: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, a.k.a the new SoS for Scotland)

    Lab…0

  23. @Tony Dean

    “Where is Anthony? If he is well and reading this I think many of us would welcome his take on the beyond MOE variances in the latest polls. I’m confused…..”

    He seems to be fine, as his Twitter account is active and has plenty of recent activity.

    Presumably with his disinclination to moderate ever-increasing silliness, and perhaps the clunkiness of the site etc, he’s less and less bothered. There is also the ‘silly season’ aspect of things, and with all the polls coming on the back of plenty of political events, he’d be inclined to doubt all polls at present.

  24. @JONESINBANGOR

    All the talk of a deal is coming from the UK executive at the moment. The DUP have denied softening their stance although they no longer count since they cannot help form a majority at this moment.

    I have seen nothing in the EU sources that says anything different from where they were previously basically there has to be some account of the SM/CU in NI so as to make the border frictionless.

    In addition the only detailed comment made by Frost have been that they want to have less of an all ireland economy since they want divergence of regulations regarding environmentals and labour. As I have said before you are correct in that the best deal for leavers is Mays deal compared to No deal but only in so far as the economics are concerned. It breaks every red line that people had been cheering for when May produced them at the lancaster house speech.

    S in my view to back out of a no deal and accept May deal will be a huge climb down for Johnson, ERG and the DUP and will give the BXP are real boost. not only that but our intermediate position at the moment need the EU to do nothing since their most goods are zero rated tariff wise due to the fact the UK cannot afford to put tariffs on EU goods but the EU can and will because it is a third party, it is 20 miles away and thus has will have not have a level playing field.

    What is going to happen is that when we start negotiating we will have so many of the thing that we left the EU for chipped away that it will become obvious that we should not have embarked on this escapade at all.

    Anyone that has gamed this would therefore know that they are kind of left no deal or not leaving any deal would look like not leaving (BrINO) which is worst of all sides and make not logical sense

    @CROSSBAT11
    @TONY DEAN
    @TONY BTG

    My understanding of the yougov polls is that before the recall adjustment their figures are very close to many others and the Labour vote gets suppressed because of the memory recall question.

    Sometimes it is interesting to look at the raw unweighted figures

  25. @PTRP

    Sorry, that just comes across as a Remainer who is desperate for there to be no deal so as to justify full Remain.

    The May deal was a sensible deal on which to leave, and is purely a stepping stone to a future relationship.

    The important thing is that we actually do Leave, and I am fully supportive of that.

  26. Valerie,
    You are correct to point out the disastrous effect breaking the Pledge and going into too close a coalition with the Tories had on the Lib Dem vote in Manchester Withington.

    However you should also perhaps contemplate Hanretty’s estimate of votes in Withington earlier this year:
    Lib Dem 32%
    Green 26%
    Labour 22%

    That is also quite a spectacular fall in popularity. Something tells me Jeff Smith will not be getting 72% again later this year

  27. On bovine TB and bad science:

    DEFRA have just announced a huge expansion of the badger cull, which they apparently based on two years worth of data from the original Gloucestershire and Somerset culls.

    That’s a strange decision, as there are now five years of data from these cull zones. This longer term data fits the pattern anticipated by the numerous experts who advised that the cull policy was misguided.

    In the Gloucestershire cull area, the proportion of herds with bTB in 2018 was 9%, compared with 6.9% when the cull commenced in 2013, and the rate of new confirmed cases stands at 13.2% compared to 12.7% five years earlier.

    In the Somerset zone, the incidence rate has fallen, but the proportion of infected herds has risen from 6.1% to 6.7%.

    These latest figures back up data that show the English approach to bTB is performing unfavourably with the Welsh experience, which relies more heavily on increased surveillance testing with very limited wildlife culling.

    The outcome of the English cull was anticipated by all the experts in the field, and comes after last year’s Godfray Report, commissioned by DEFRA. concluded that the reliance on culling was not justified and would not be sufficient to eradicate bTB.

    It’s probably the best current example of government’s willfully ignoring scientific evidence that we have.

  28. @ CMJ – Some great analysis and “what if” scenarios, thank you

  29. @JONESINBANGOR

    Sorry those are the simple facts…..
    You have not refuted any of the statement that I said.
    Have the DUP said they have softened their stance? NO
    Has Frost said that he wants regulatory divergence? YES
    Has Johnson said that the nackstop has to go? YES

    tell me how a deal is going to be fashioned?

    I believe that you have kept on saying that there would be a deal. I have said that despite the fact that if I was a leaver I would take May’s deal as you would I believe you are not in the majority of leavers that would accept the deal as is. I believe that if Johnson is going to have a deal before November then it will be Mays deal or else it will have to be no deal I have always said that we will be leaving the EU (and yes I am a remainer) I believe that rather like Iraq we will be cheering that we left and then once the detail comes to light we would be trying to justify what the hell happened.

    For the record we are going to be leaving I suspect with no deal because as I pointed out you are going to have a lot of different group have to climb down none of them have even hinted of climbing down and as I have said economically the UK’s no deal position does not hurt imports into the UK other than Beef and car parts.

    So again as I have kept saying to leavers how do you get the deal through when no one has backed down and the point is someone has to give up a red line?

    You are suggesting that Boris Johnson is going to give up a red line and then not have a election? Then he will have two years of negotiation which will show where UK position really stands. I keep saying to leavers Brexit is not an event it is a process and you are so keen to leave that you are misunderstanding that the process is set against you. If Boris Johnson comes back with mays deal or not it is only the start of the problems not the end.

    And I have been saying this since the Lancaster House speech.

  30. LDEM officially back Revoke policy.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49706643

  31. The Secret Barrister tweets: “Priti Patel MP, 2011:

    “I would actually support the reintroduction of capital punishment.”

    ?Priti Patel MP, Home Secretary, 2019:

    “I have never in my time as a Member of Parliament been an advocate for [capital punishment]”.”

  32. @PTRP

    It is certainly difficult to imagine a deal that would get through the current parliament, i.e. one that the ERG, the purged Tories, the DUP and a few rebel Lab MPs would vote for.

  33. LIBDEM TOP 50 TARGET SEATS

    Just to mention, only seven of these are held by LAB; most are CON.

  34. Not just WHO and WHAT but WHEN, WHY and HOW

    Lots of folks still trying to predict outcomes with very weak analysis (eg What will Boris do..)

    Timing (WHEN) and sequencing are vitally important. If Corbyn had called a VoNC in the early Sep window then a different chain of events would have occurred.

    The key events will be between 14-31Oct (with 19Oct a “rubicon” date) but until then other issues will change the decisions of different “players”. Boris is “stewing” away so ABC parties and EC-EU27 are where the action might happen (or not) BEFORE Boris has to make his next decision (concerning the extension request)

    Many of the key issues are mostly WHY decisions:

    EG WHY did LDEM adopt a Revoke policy and say “no pacts”?

    – To try to be THE Remain party (they clearly look at polling and have seen the “polarised” views on both sides), well played ;)
    – To try to shake off the “trust” issue from the coalition years and try to be seen as a credible party again (and not just a “protest” or “tactical” vote). TBC on that.

    The LDEM decision had both risks (if the “Anti-No Deal” alliance starts to break then that is great for Boris) and rewards (in this case more along lines of two birds in the bush being worth more than the bird they let d!e in their hands – Soubs has her hand up for the blame tho so do not let her join!)

    HOW is largely a legal and procedural issue and in many cases it’s HOW LONG (and WHEN) that is important and interlinks with WHO is prepared to be a bit “naughty” and bend/break rules/conventions/ maybe even law (although note – HOW LONG it takes to be sure a law has been broken and what “remedy” or action is then required)

    I keep making these kind of recommendations to folks. I’ll summarise the main points.

    1/ Boris is probably thinking in terms of 31Oct – X days and hence has an interest to “wait and see” (ie let ABC confs occur and see if EC-EU27 make any move). Gove is key as well. Yellowhammer2 will affect (with an a) the HoC maths if we get to a PM TINA Corbyn or Revoke vote mid-late Oct. EC-EU27 might come up with more “mitigation” (awful word but I’ll use it) as well.

    2/ Legal cases take time , can use multiple courts and it is not necessarily about the legal “win” (ie “frustration” or “political gain” can be as important, if not more important ). Understand HOW LONG these cases will probably take (and when each player might start the process)

    3/ Unite one side and divide the other (some folks understand this). So Remain need to try to stay united (tricky if “partisan” and “broad church” issues resurface) AND keep Farage (BXP) in “play” to split the Leave vote. NATS are a “double edged sword” for LAB and LDEM as NATS have a “twin” agenda.

    4/ Consider what each “player” wants not what YOU want and certainly don’t just parrot the kool aid from your own sides spin machine and “house” press

    5/ Anticipate how MPs might vote in the BIG votes that will probably occur mid-late Oct (PM TINA Corbyn, Revoke (or default to “No WA”), etc)

    6/ Write down the key dates and events and anticipate how each party might act before the event and how their decision at the event will set off a different chain of reactions and future pathways (eg if Boris does/doesn’t write the letter and beg for an extension then how will HoC and EC-EU27 respond to those two possible outcomes).

    Just some friendly advice…

  35. Some discussion on the prevalence of tactical voting upthread.

    BMG did polling on this last month for the Electoral Reform Society

    https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-ers-poll-one-in-five-indicate-their-vote-preference-is-tactical/

    National breakdowns were (GB same as England, due to weight of numbers)

    “I am voting for the candidate/party I most prefer, regardless of how likely they are to win” (Eng 67% : Wal 64% : Sco 72%)

    “I am voting for the best-positioned party/candidate to keep out another party/candidate that I dislike” (Eng 22% : Wal 26% : Sco 19%)

    Of course, the binary question is somewhat false as multiple factors affect VI.

  36. @TREVOR WARNE

    I am not sure how that helps them, In all fairness she seems to angling for a set of votes that I am not sure are where she needs them.

    As TONYELBERT has said most of the winnable seats are Tory and not Labour. I would presume if you are trying to peel tories away from the fold then that is clearly not the way to do it. In that respect are they not making the Labour party the more sane of the two of them?

    I suspected that her views are pretty much clouded by the idea that they can sell thi because the alternative is Corbyn, isn’t that the approach that May took? I means she is selling him as a much of an anti semitic, immigrantant and tree hugging sandal and elbow patch wearing terrorist sympathising marxist, which sound very right wing Tory to me. which would mean that getting Labour voters to lend their vote is going to be harder.

    Which leads me to believe the following she reckons that we will have left the EU by the time of an election and thus could blame Corbyn for it because the idea of revoking A50 falls by the wayside once we have left.

    @TONYELBERT

    I suspect this is the real problem that I have with some people that Parliament cannot agree on a method of leaving that firstly they cannot guarantee it would not either be a problem economically or politically

    the political problem relates to the ideas of what is sovereignty and what independence of action. Just take the issue of fishing rights, I suspect the Uk will get access to the EU market for access to EU fishing in UK waters and hence signs of betrayal ringing in Mps ears. It is why I believe that Leavers have not thought this through it seems that once we leave it will be done (the Iraq war equivalent was capturing Saddam, which was touted a big event which now no one even remembers of care about as so much else has happened since)

    @SAM

    I have said that there are more Trumpian politicians in the UK than we would ever like to think

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU

    I just don’t think it matter though since if it did they would be out of office. Just imagine you telling such an obvious lie at work as an example…….

    What scares me is that there is google and youtube so we get the politicians we deserve and as an electorate I can only say we are collectively ignorant, stupid or we just don’t care

  37. As I have long argued on here the LibDems continually shift to target weakness.

    There tactic is not to defeat their two bigger opponents but to carve off parts of their support to strengthen their position.

    Right now that is One Nation Tories and the few Remain Tories, those upset about the direction of the Party and No Deal.

    They are also targeting those who are worried about Corbyn in general and Antisemitism and hard left policies!

    Tactically opportunism rather than any ideological change or motivation.

    For years (decades!) the LibDems hardly mentioned Independence and then as the SNP rose and suddenly, when the SNP looked like they might threaten the 20%+ of LibDem MP’s at Westminster from a Country with less than 10% of the electorate, they were wrapping themselves in the Union Jack.

    Orange Book LibDems leaning Right emerged when Blair was strong and the Tories weak. LibDems with an emphasis on social issues were to the fore when Thatcher was strong and Labour weak.

    It’s a good tactic to grow your representation, as long as you don’t over achieve and end up in Government because that’s when you get found out!

    Peter.

  38. Re. Swinson and moving to the right.

    There is no significant sign of this. There have been 3 ex Tory defectors, and 3 ex Labour defectors. No big shift im the centre of gravity. New members are coming from both directions.

    Some people have made much of the criticism of Corbyn. That is necessary politics, in particular ruling out coalition with Corbyn (and Johnson). Corbyn is very unpopular with Tory voters, very unpopular with Lib Dem voters (many of them recently Labour voters), and pretty unpopular even with Labour voters. It may upset Labour members, but otherwise it is a free hit..
    Meanwhile she was careful not to comment on any particular Labour policies this morning, other than Brexit. That may well come in due course

  39. PTRP

    I agree with you. There is talk but little else on the UK side. Here is some of the Barnier speech of 12 Sep to the EP. There is nothing in it to suggest a deal is being made or will be made.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/speech-barnier-ep-cop-120919.pdf

    “I can not tell you objectively whether the contacts with the government of Mr.Johnson will be able to reach an agreement by mid-October.”

    “First, a word about our last meetings with British negotiators , in especially the Johnson sherpa, David Frost, with whom we are in contact permanent since the end of July.• We have observed a willingness on their part to intensify contacts with us since the G7 in Biarritz at the end of August.• On the backstop, we have always said that we are ready to analyze any proposal which would be compatible with the withdrawal agreement and legally operational, as was engaged the British government in the letter of March 2018 to President Tusk .o But the ball is clearly in the British camp.”

    Beyond the backstop, the British are also asking to change certain points of the political declaration .o On our future economic partnership, they want us to indicate without ambiguity that the final destination must be a free trade agreement and in no way case a customs union.? And we are obviously ready to work in this direction.o But we will have a problem if the British will is at the same time to question the level playing field commitments that we had negotiated with Mrs May and guarantee fair competition between the EU and the UK.United.• This is of course a point on which we will remain very vigilant”

  40. Seats where Lib Dems are second.

    Seat – Party in First – Majority to overcome

    North East Fife – SNP – 0.00%
    Richmond Park – Con – 0.07%
    Ceredigion – PC – 0.26%
    St Ives – Con – 0.61%
    Sheffield, Hallam – Lab – 3.73%
    Cheltenham – Con – 4.51%
    North Devon – Con – 7.78%
    Cheadle – Con – 8.26%
    Leeds North West – Lab – 9.13%
    Lewes – Con – 10.16%
    St Albans – Con – 10.72%
    Wells – Con – 12.46%
    Hazel Grove – Con – 12.49%
    North Cornwall – Con – 14.13%
    Winchester – Con – 17.49%
    Brecon and Radnorshire – Con – 19.45%
    Bermondsey and Old Southwark – Lab – 22.17%
    Cambridge – Lab – 22.64%
    Thornbury and Yate – Con – 23.81%
    Sutton and Cheam – Con – 24.43%
    Eastleigh – Con – 24.75%
    Yeovil – Con – 24.78%
    Taunton Deane – Con – 25.20%
    Montgomeryshire – Con – 26.61%
    Torbay – Con – 27.91%
    Chippenham – Con – 29.10%
    Guildford – Con – 30.70%
    Mid Dorset and North Poole – Con – 31.79%
    Harrogate and Knaresborough – Con – 32.02%
    West Dorset – Con – 32.03%
    Somerton and Frome – Con – 35.85%
    Romsey and Southampton North – Con – 36.00%
    Vauxhall – Lab – 36.79%
    Newbury – Con – 40.07%
    Mole Valley – Con – 42.55%
    North Wiltshire – Con – 42.60%
    Hornsey and Wood Green – Lab – 49.34%
    Manchester, Withington – Lab – 55.73%

  41. @ TOBYEBERT – Electoral Polling site uses a very simple approach of how large a swing is required.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    If LDEM adopt a “go it alone” approach to try to win as many seats as possible then it will depend on which party bleeds those votes to them.

    Since LDEM = Arch-Remain then will their VI gain come mainly from CON or LAB?!?

    So sure CON will lose a few seats to LDEM but by lowering the LAB vote in CON-LAB marginals then CON could easily gain 3x the number.

    So perhaps instead of looking at just LDEM targets seats look at CON’s list (using the very same simplistic approach):

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Could you add up how many seats CON could take from LAB that are less than 10% swing (and compare that total to LDEM gains from CON that are under a 10% swing)

    PS I don’t use such a simplistic approach myself but it was pretty easy to see where you got your numbers from.

    PPS Although LDEM say “no pacts” then Corbyn can insist Swinson breaks that mid-late Oct (assuming Boris doesn’t “bottle it”). Even abstaining on hope that tips the HoC maths to PM TINA Corbyn will be a “red flag” to a lot of CON-LDEM marginal VIs (and hence marginal seats) – IMO of course ;)

  42. CMJ,

    I don’t get those yougov figures. Midlands +Wales and T’ North both only add up to 79%.

    Wherr is the extra 21%?

  43. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    @ANDREW111

    I suspect the real problem for Swinson is in policies but as PETER has said they have sold themselves as a party that morphs quite racially.

    In 2010 their manifesto was to the left of Labour and yet accepted policies that no labour party MP would have agreed to. That cost them in 2015.

    I feel they are pushing to the right of where they are going to end up in the hope of doing the same again as her main target appears to be tory voters but I believe she needs to sew up the Labour and green voters to make sure they lend their vote and to me some of what she is saying is pretty much what Liberal Democrats said after their coalition statement, that is they could get new voters

    I suspect she has pushed revoking A50 because it won’t matter….we would have left by then and she could say if it was not for Corbyn we would not have left. having the same position as Corbyn does not help her which does suggest this is her gamble or as like me she cannot see a way for the remainers to agree a way to remain/have a second referendum and is therefore setting up her blame stall early.

  44. It’s all Cameron’s fault, isn’t it.

    “It goes something like this: holding a referendum was an act of hubris on Cameron’s part – an unnecessary, short-sighted tactic to placate a Conservative Party frightened of UKIP, a case of party before country that spectacularly backfired. So the current mess is all Cameron’s fault.

    This is a comfortable argument to wear whether you think Brexit is a bewildering disaster or a glorious opportunity being undermined by politicians who never believed in it, or who failed to prepare for it properly.

    Yet it is also blinkered and, in the main, wrong.”

  45. @B&B

    The missing percentages are ‘Will not vote’ and other parties.

  46. Opinium write-up and link to tabs

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-11th-september-2019/

    I always look at V301 (formerly V306). In Brexit x-break order (Arch-Leave to Arch-Remain) with “current policy” in bold.

    BXP: 94% Leave on 31Oct with/without deal
    CON: 79% (as above), only 10% want a delay, 7% Revoke

    LAB: 46% Revoke, 29% delay , 19% Brexit on 31Oct

    LDEM: 58% Revoke , 28% delay, 9% Brexit on 31Oct

    NB NATS are small x-breaks but SNP are 71% Revoke in this poll and that kind of finding is similar in other polls.

    PS We’ll see what happens but I’d love a TV debate where Swinson and Corbyn can discuss their respective Brexit policies ;)

  47. https://fromarsetoelbow.blogspot.com/

    “The idea that such a man [Corbyn] would, if he became a caretaker Prime Minister tasked with extending Article 50 and scheduling a referendum, then abuse the office for party or personal advantage is simply not plausible (nor is the idea that Seumas Milne would be a leftwing Dominic Cummings). Swinson’s judgement has all the analytical rigour of a playground taunt.

    Many self-styled defenders of democratic institutions are guilty of bad faith, often elevating the interests of one particular institution or another to the detriment of wider democratic practice. Remainers who currently bang on about parliamentary sovereignty vis-à-vis the executive but also advocate the cancellation of the 2016 referendum result, as Swinson does, are an obvious case in point. While the decision to hold that public vote has since set the cat among the constitutional pigeons, it doesn’t follow that it was a mistake, whatever David Cameron may now think, and it certainly doesn’t follow that the difficulty in absorbing the result into the constitutional framework should in any way invalidate it. The most ridiculous position adopted by that framework’s liberal defenders is the attempt to reinvent the monarchy as a pillar of democracy. “

  48. @ leftieliberal

    I remember all those Guardian vox pops in 2017 “voted Labour all my life- never again” and yet when it came to the vote they had clearly spoken to the wrong people in order to fit their narrative as something like 35% more people voted Labour than had done in 2015.

    It is much better to take your information from a polling site for better balance, although to be fair polling is flagging up the same problem for Labour. But they key thing I think polling is telling us is that enough people in those areas want to leave for the distribution of seats to work in leave’s favour as remain will be stacking up votes in places like London and you have more parties with various shades of remain and wasted votes unless the tactical vote really kicks in.

    I think many of us are very well aware of the problems Labour faces in the towns and have flagged this up as a particular problem for looking too remainy when so many white working class in these sorts of places took an interest in politics for the first time in a long time on EU referendum day.

    Ironically the Guardian chose Blair’s constituency as he was the one who started the disenchantment. Personally I thought Blair was better for these places than Cameron or Major/Thatcher, putting money into education, every child matters etc, but it was a middle class agenda and the industrial policy was weak and he didn’t create the jobs they needed. He basically subsidised these areas from an economic policy that couldn’t last and was geared towards one part of the country as well as asset booms.

    I certainly think places like Sedgefield are a problem for Labour so they are not wrong in that assessment but of course their analysis should be a in the leave/remain aspect rather than all sorts of other things mentioned that, again, suits the Guardian narrative.

  49. @PTRP

    “deal because as I pointed out you are going to have a lot of different group have to climb down none of them have even hinted of climbing down and as I have said economically the UK’s no deal position does not hurt imports into the UK other than Beef and car parts.

    So again as I have kept saying to leavers how do you get the deal through when no one has backed down and the point is someone has to give up a red line?”

    I am very sure that the UK and EU simply will not allow no deal to happen.

    If the prospect of a

    deal dies, then we will end up Remaining.

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