Prorogation polling

Three polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation – have so far released polling on the government’s decision to prorogue Parliament in mid-September.

YouGov polled on the issue twice – a snap poll on the day of the announcement itself, with the same question repeated overnight. The on-the-day figures were 27% acceptable, 47% unacceptable, 26% don’t know. The follow-up poll had a similar split, but with the number of don’t knows dropping off as people became aware of the story – 31% said it was acceptable, 53% unacceptable, 16% don’t know. Tabs are here)

Ipsos MORI did an unusual online poll (almost alone among pollsters these days, most of their polling is done by phone). They found 30% thought the decision to prorogue Parliament was right, 46% thought it was wrong. Tables are here.

Finally there was a Survation poll for today’s Daily Mail. This found a closer result, with the public fairly evenly split – 39% were supportive, 40% opposed (note this is rounding the totals for support/oppose after they’ve been summed, hence the apparent discrepancy with the tables). Tables are here.

Overall it looks as if the public are opposed to the prorogation decision – though it is unclear to what degree. Whether that really matters or will make any dent in the government’s support is a different matter. Opposition to prorogation is concentrated among Remainers (in YouGov 82% of Remainers think the move is unacceptable, but only 24% of Leavers, in MORI’s poll 74% of Remainers think it was wrong, only 20% of Leavers, in Survation 74% Remainers, 14% leavers). If most of the opposition to the move comes from people who are opposed to the government’s policy anyway (and I expect the more fervent opposition comes from those who were most fervently opposed already) the government are hardly likely to worry too much over losing the crucial “people who hated us anyway” vote.

Both YouGov and Survation included voting intention in their surveys:

YouGov’s topline figures were CON 33%(-1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4), BREX 12%(-1), GRN 7%(-1)
Survation’s topline figures were CON 31%(+3), LAB 24%(nc), LD 21%(nc), BREX 14%(-2), GRN 3%(nc)

Changes in the YouGov poll are from a poll earlier this week, before the announcement. In Survation changes are from a poll three weeks ago. There is a little movement up and down, but certainly nothing that suggests the announcement has done immediate damage to Conservative support.


3,389 Responses to “Prorogation polling”

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  1. @Oldnat

    Thanks – some interesting pieces in there.

    Highlights for me:
    – no particular obvious reliance on the differences between English and Scottish laws e.g. paragraph 81 and the general consensus that the Claim of Right was too vague to be particularly relevant here in establishing a specific test
    – the general agreement that it had to be justiciable because the normal legislative/Parliamentary route for scrutinising and constraining executive action was specifically made unavailable by prorogation (e.g. two years would clearly be unlawful)
    – some distinction between Lord Carloway’s judgement (focused around the purpose, leaving open that an appropriate poltiical purpose could allow for a prorogation of this length) and the other two (focused around the effect, to effectively state a prorogation of this length to be impossible to have a legitimate purpose).

  2. DANNY
    “Or just annoy both sides.”

    Isn’t that the essential characteristic of a compromise? That it is, for both sides, worse than a complete win?

  3. Huge thanks to the n=0 who commented on why ABC MPs would want to reopen parliament now that Bill#6 has passed RA

    IMO early prorogation was always a distraction (not going over it again) and hence the court cases are also “politically motivated” (ie make Boris look like a “criminal”, “dictator”, etc and keep up the “Stop the Coup” dog whistle politics stuff).

    See TREVBOTs Collectives countless posts about legal cases being as much about a “political spin” win as an actual win.

    So I’ll answer myself:

    1/ LAB might want to avoid conference as the Brexit policy is a “compromise” that is sticking a plaster over some major cracks in “intra-LAB” views (PLP, intra-Union, inter Union-members, less so members who are huge majority Remain)

    NB CON will want the LDEM conf to go ahead without hinderance tho… ;)
    NB2 Pretty sure Boris wants the “ego boost” of CON conf but tactically he might like the image of having to rally the troops and the country whilst fighting off the enemy and “standing alone” in a hostile HoC (not that he’s a Churchill fan or anything?!?)

    2/ 31 – X days. If LDEM eventually work out they missed the “window” (ie TINA PM Corbyn as LOTO owns Swinson) AND they start to realise Boris is maybe not “skewered” and “stewing” in #10 (via Bill#6) then they will want X to be as great as possible (see below)

    14 Oct – Queen’s Speech and probable SO24 for Yellowhammer2
    15-17 Oct – Gove releases some info that is BETTER than Yellowhammer1 but “cherry picked” so more SO24s (eg HMT forecasts, etc)
    17 Oct – Boris writes the letter and shows up (or not). Are Remain folks sure they really want him to do so anyway?!?

    Pretty weak case IMO and I expect most ABC MPs are quite happy to blow on the “Stop the Coup” dog whistle but would not be happy to actually return to HoC earlier than 14Oct. Happy to be “educated” about anything I’ve missed ;)

    PS If anyone has watched a stew cook then it’s a lot like watching paint dry. Much better to get on with GE campaigning and wait until the stew is ready to eat ;)

  4. I have argued since 2016 that the only way that the decision to leave the EU can be reversed is by a further referendum. This is the only way that it could be accepted.

    At last Labour is reaching this obvious point. The government’s job is to negotiate the best deal available, and it should then be put to the public for ratification. I suggest that this minimises the fractioning for the future.

    Obviously as well all parties should be “neutral” in this referendum, with no whipping.

  5. I agree (as rather often) with R and D. The right position for Labour is to treat the election as settling the question of whether no deal is an acceptable option. If it is not, then no one really believes that there is a much better deal than May deal available and that in any case is the way to more or less any form of Brexit. So the election needs to be followed by a referendum as soon as possible remain v May deal.

    It seems to me that most people’s least worst option would probably be a final deal that kept the trading relationships as they currently are but claimed to take back whatever bits of ‘sovereignty’ do not need to be pooled for the sake of trade. Unlike others, I think a promise to try and negotiate this if the referendum went that way would have a reasonable chance of winning. I would support this position despite wanting remain and do not see it as intellectually incoherent. It just needs to be properly presented.

    As for the election, I am unclear how far the various predictions take account of tactical voting. Given the need for this Labour needs to neutralise the fears of Corbyn as far as they can. The Lib Dems need to say that they will exercise a moderating influence. Both need to emphasise Boris’s weakness which is that he says he wants a deal without offering any evidence on how to get one, and says he wants to end austerity while proposing to take us into an economic crisis. Boris’s efforts to counter this, will hopefully (from my point of view) keep the Brexit party in play.

  6. Surely Johnson has to resign? Even if the Supreme Court say the prorogation stands, he has still been found guilty of misleading Brenda and presumably Parliament too.

  7. A suggestion for LAB Brexit policy.

    Drop the renegotiation bit and make the 2nd ref a binary:
    “Tory Brexit”[1] v “Remain”

    Allow any LAB MP who is daft enough to campaign for a “Tory Brexit” to do so or be dealt with by CLP (might be too late soon) and note likes of Hoey, Mann+co, etc are “retiring” anyway. McCluskey, Seamus, etc – surely PM Corbyn is the bigger prize – non?

    Look at Opinium polls and anticipate CON GE campaign will be Corbyn = Delay (we’ve even been testing those ads so it’s hardly a secret)

    Don’t let Corbyn become the T!T that he’s lining himself up to be (ie don’t make him go begging to EC-EU27 with no stable majority and a lengthy ambiguous “solution”)

    [1] ie May’s deal or whatever lipstick Boris puts on it

  8. Peterw,
    “Isn’t that the essential characteristic of a compromise? That it is, for both sides, worse than a complete win?”

    This one is in the territory where the compromise is worse than a complete loss.

  9. PS for “evolving” LAB’s Brexit policy

    Obviously LDEM go first in conf season so although they have “first mover advantage” then flip the old game of being just on the Remain side of May and stay just on the “democratic” and Leave side of LDEM.

    PS I just want to bring this uncertainty to end so I can get on with a Real life in the Real World and totally done with extensions (see V301 in Opinium, formerly V306 to see that is a large majority view and not just n=1.

    I have a personal plan for if we Remain under PM Corbyn so if that is what happens then better sooner rather than later – also given the tiny % left in LAB-Leave VI then I think Corbyn inheriting a Tory Brexit (deal or no deal) is just wrong but that would just speed up my personal exit strategy so if it happens then again let’s just get on with it.

  10. BBC Scotland reporter has published the heading of the copy of the “Yellowhammer” report received by the Scottish Government.

    https://twitter.com/bbckirstenc/status/1172146232631996416/photo/1

    While Sturgeon has maintained the confidentiality of the copy of the report received by SG, she has confirmed to the Scottish Parliament that the copy sent to Scotland does indeed say “Base Scenario” and not the ludicrous [email protected] heading in the version issued by HMG in its habitually base behaviour.

  11. PeterW
    Lib Dem conference will vote on the Revoke policy on Sunday. Always hard to predict. Some internal surveys suggest an even split between Revoke and referendum. Leadership is clearly trying to bounce the policy through, so the chances are with a new Leader seen as doing well by the membership, it will pass.

    I think they should say revoke if a majority of votes are cast in the GE for Parties with that in their manifesto. Then challenge Labour and the rest to do that. Otherwise back a referendum.
    I do not like the idea of Revoking with a Cameron-like majority based on 37% of the vote, but the chances of it happening are very slim, similar to the odds of Leicester ever winning the Premier League..

  12. “PS I just want to bring this uncertainty to end so I can get on with a Real life in the Real World”

    Mrs Statgeek has been blissfully oblivious to Brexit for the past 3.5 years. She refuses to pay too much attention to the news, and she’s not bothered about any of it.

    Paraphrasing: “Just one bunch of over-paid, under-informed primadonnas, pretending their version of the world will be better than the other bunch of over-paid, under-informed primadonnas.”

    All you have to do is disengage from the subject. The real world awaits.

  13. Andrew111

    While I listened to Swinson’s (rather good) speech in HoC, I didn’t take note of her exact words in relation to Lib Dems advocating Revoke.

    I noted that she referred to LDs “in government” doing this, but was that an “LD”, “LD-led”, government or one in which the LDs were part.

    Can you clarify?

  14. “CHARLES
    I agree (as rather often) with R and D.”

    Thanks Charles and I am a great admirer of your unfailingly excellent manners – something that I cannot compete with…

    Re this:

    ” Unlike others, I think a promise to try and negotiate this if the referendum went that way would have a reasonable chance of winning. I would support this position despite wanting remain and do not see it as intellectually incoherent. It just needs to be properly presented.”

    I think the problem lies with the wish in your final sentence. Since Corbyn has the final – and most important – word it falls to him to do this and, in my view, he does so really poorly, and usually with bad grace.

    McDonnell is far more articulate and amenable.

  15. Statgeek

    “The real world awaits”.

    Indeed, but will that real world be one in which Amlodopine, Ramipril. Losartan and Co-codamol (and other drugs) be available to those for whom they have been prescribed?

  16. “word” – work in my last post.

  17. Hulagu

    “the only way the decision to leave the EU can be reversed is by a further referendum. This is the only way it could be accepted.”

    It’s interesting how many remainers put forward that idea ,that somehow the country would accept the result of a second referendum when the first one was ignored.
    By what stretch of the imagination if remain won a second referendum would the leavers be OK with that result.
    What remainers mean and this includes most of Parliament is ,if we win the referendum result no matter how narrow, it means that’s the end of it and we are staying in the EU.
    So in effect remainers are saying referendums are only of use if they deliver the result we want otherwise we will delay, procrastinate bring spurious legal matters to court, drag it out for over 3yrs by talking endlessly about it in Parliament during which time we will pass as many anti brexit bills as possible to tie up any chance of real negotiations, all with the with the sole object of overturning the first democratic vote.
    But hey if people would only vote remain in a second referendum the country would miraculously come together and if it doesn’t tough we won and our democratic vote must be respected, well good luck with that one .

  18. @Oldnat

    That’s a question for the SNHS drugs procurement dept, or the wholesale pharma companies. Can’t speak for E&W NHS.

    Availability shouldn’t be a problem in itself. If they’re available without Brexit, the drugs don’t suddenly vanish, so it’s probably down to costs, so it’s a case of politicians raising taxes to pay for it, or going down the route of private healthcare to cover the extra costs. All things being equal, the former will not happen under this lot, and the latter means more dead people.

    Either way, this lot are facing a hell of a battle with the electorate, if they take it to that limit.

    For what it’s worth, Co-codamol is over the counter for most users. Not heard of the others. Looked up Ramipril. I suggest most people ignore Brexit, and the demand for Ramipril will go through the floor. :D

  19. Statgeek

    With respect (and we all know what that term means!) the drugs I mentioned are ones on the prescriptions in this house – and have been for a long time. When you’re older, you and Mrs Geek will probably be well aware of them.

    The reason I selected those is because they appear on this list – https://e-surgery.com/brexit-crisis-medication-shortage-list/

    Whether a No Deal Brexit limits the supply, or the pharma companies simply use that as an excuse to gouge prices to the extent that SMC or NICE need to suggest limits on prescribing levels, doesn’t matter a damn.

    Our “real world” may be very different from yours.

  20. This is a pretty good excerpt from an interview Ian Duncan Smith gave to LBC radio earlier today about the Op Yellowhammer document:-

    “It is five pages long, okay. People think this is some kind of incredible, worthy document, it’s not. What it is was a bunch of officials told ‘go and have a look at what you think could be reasonably the worst-case scenario’.

    “So in paragraph three for example, they come up with the idea that you won’t get through Calais because Calais could decide that they have to stop everybody who’s papers aren’t absolutely right and they’ve got no room in Calais.

    “I actually listened to an early briefing of this under Privy Council terms which I will now breach, and tell you that as we sat and listened to this some few months ago as they were preparing it, I asked them a simple question.

    “I said ‘did you at any stage in the course of that area, talk to the Calais authorities about what they were doing?’ There was a shuffling of feet and then complete silence. I said, ‘you didn’t, did you?’ and they said ‘we weren’t asked to.’

    “I said ‘don’t be so damn stupid’, in Calais the Head of Calais ports and the Pas De Nord had said they’re already building an inspection point 40km away from Calais.

    “If they have any issues with any of them they ship them to there, there will be no stoppage. They will not, and they said, stress, ‘no matter what arrangements are made they will not stop trucks more than they do at the moment if they don’t have the right paperwork.’”

  21. @Turk

    ‘It’s interesting how many remainers put forward that idea ,that somehow the country would accept the result of a second referendum when the first one was ignored.’

    For god’s sake man, it hasn’t been ignored – we’ve had Tory governments featuring a plethora of leading Leave proponents in senior positions trying obsessively to deliver on it for three and a half years now and they STILL haven’t been able to do so.

    In fact the government has done virtually nothing BUT obsess over Brexit, to the detriment of all other needful activity.

    Brexit hasn’t been delivered, for sure, but that is down to the internal contradictions of all the commitments made on behalf of various Leave factions – no Brexit satisfactory to the Brexit ultras is satisfactory to the pragmatists, and vice versa.

    To say the referendum has been ‘ignored’ is utterly absurd though…

  22. MHWL

    I have no reason to believe that you have done other than quote “a pretty good excerpt” from what IDS said.

    The question of trust in what members of the current UK Government say matters rather more.

    We already know from other sources that HMG has altered the text of the document from the original.

    It is also interesting that he says “I actually listened to an early briefing of this under Privy Council terms which I will now breach”.

    Is the word of a man who claims to be betraying an oath of confidentiality worth anything at all?

  23. @ Hulagu “the only way the decision to leave the EU can be reversed is by a further referendum. This is the only way it could be accepted.”

    How bizarre, absurd and naive. After the complete refusal by Remainers to accept the 2016 result, what on earth makes you think Leavers won’t behave in exactly the same way if you attempt to reverse it. Indeed, why should they. The campaign for a third referendum will start the following day – on that you can bet your house.

    No matter what happens now, nothing is wever going to be the same politically ever again – not the parties, not Westminster not nothing. For example every single piece of contentious legislation brought before the House from now on is going to be met with Court cases, Humble addresses, barrages of ridiculous amendemnts, leaks of classified documents, revolts and lashings and lashings of pure venom.

  24. @Turk – I agree that a second referendum would not resolve current tensions. It would, however, be a way of moving things on which would be less divisive than no deal which used to be the option which attracted the largest number of very negative feelings. Outright remain attracted the next largest number while a very soft Brexit looked to be option that no one really wanted but most people would find it easiest to accept. So if your priority is to bring the country together you should probably back a referendum with very soft Brexit an option. We will then get something that we don’t really like but can live with, Plus Ca change etc

    @R and D – Thanks – Rees Mogg is supposed to have excellent manners (a bit at odds with his recent lounging behaviour but there you go). They are not always evidence of a good character!

  25. I take ramipril, indapamide, amlodopimine, statins, aspirin and insulin.

    Am I in the slightest concerned about a hard brexit? nope. Do I believe my supply will be interrupted? nope.

  26. @ROSIEANDDAISIE, @LEFTIELIBERAL

    Interesting that ForecastUK see a realistic chance of Caroline Lucas losing in Brighton, whilst Sporting Index seem to have a second Green seat priced in.

  27. @TRIGGUY

    Which reminds me, who can spot the sketch:

    Quiz master: “That’s right. So, as a tiebreaker, fingers on buzzers, this one’s for all of you. And it’s unknowable, subjective and forgotten. In literature, which of the Brönte sisters was best in bed?

    Richard: “Nobody knows.”

    Quiz master: “Nobody knows!

    The tone sounds like KYTV, but I think I’d remember that – is it the Young Ones doing University Challenge…?

  28. @Trevors – “@ ALEC – Still unable to read or understand my posts I see, notably the “political” aspects of legal cases if your blowing the dog whistle.”

    Indeed. I admit to being broadly speaking unable to understand the majority of your posts. I suspect I am one of many in that regard.

    In terms of your apparent belief in the ‘“political” aspects of legal cases’, your ‘scenario’ of an action for treason against remainer MPs is probably the stupidest idea we’ve seen on UKPR.

    Lets just have a look at how stupid you’ve been:

    Firstly, you haven’t read the acts defining treason, because if you had, you would understand that nothing that has been done is treasonable.

    Second, you seem to imagine that some leave campaigners with deep pockets can launch a legal action accusing someone of treason. But hold on @Trevs – don’t you understand that treason is a criminal offence? We’re not talking matters of civil litigation here – you really imagine the CPS would lay charges here? Can you see how stupid that is?

    Finally – the political aspects. Great – get the leave side to look totally stupid, by trying to prosecute something that isn’t a crime that they can’t prosecute anyway? That works.

    I can appreciate people having a bit of fun on UKPR with inventive imagining and a bit of jesting, but just admit that’s what you’re doing. When someone points you to the facts, it’s time to stop pretending.

  29. @EOR

    “Interesting that ForecastUK see a realistic chance of Caroline Lucas losing in Brighton, whilst Sporting Index seem to have a second Green seat priced in.”

    I don’t think so! One of the safest seats in the UK!

  30. @ My How We Laughed

    I take Indepam, Ramipril, Amlodopine, Atenalol, and Omeprazole. Am I worried? I’m filling my blo*dy pants !

  31. MHWL

    That you are unconcerned about the possible effects on your medication isn’t surprising. Faith can overcome many things – as believers in Homeopathy, as a way of treating miasms can sometimes demonstrate.

    As to your previous –

    “every single piece of contentious legislation brought before the House from now on is going to be met with Court cases, Humble addresses, barrages of ridiculous amendemnts, leaks of classified documents, revolts and lashings and lashings of pure venom.”

    that seems rather strange.

    If, under any other Government, legislation is contentious, then venomous people are going to spout venom. There’s nothing new in that.

    If any Government proposes legislation, then amendments proposed to that are perfectly normal, and have happened for centuries.

    Leaks of classified documents (also known as whistleblowing) have also been common for a very long time. What has been more unusual recently (though not uniquely) has been that the leaks have been from within the government.

    The courts exist as an essential part of constitutional democracy to ensure that the Executive operates within the law. I would earnestly hope for the residents of whatever is the UK in the future, that the courts would continue to protect the people against abuse of power by whichever executive is in power.

    So, you really aren’t issuing much of a challenge or a threat to anything. Still, as long as your bluster makes you happy …..

  32. @Oldnat

    Like I said, the availability should either be a problem now, regardless of Brexit, or it will not be a problem at all (*). Drugs manufacturers prefer to sell goods, than have them going out of date. This reported stock-piling will be expensive if they don’t offload them in time.

    As for pricing, I can’t imagine the SNP government allowing such gouging / ramping to occur to the end users (free prescriptions? I’ve paid for most of mine over the years). They would offset the costs against some other issue that isn’t life-threatening. SNP mitigation of Westminster drugs’ costs would be a nice addition to the Indyref2 case.

    However, if we return to topic, ignoring Brexit as a subject IS easy for most people if they want to. I’m not suggesting that people not be aware of how it might affect them, but was referring to the day-to-day political intrigue, and never-ending news reports. 99% of the Brexit noise is nothing but theatre. We’re no better off than a year ago when Theresa was extending things to January 2019. There is a good case for wrapping up the whole thing, but not in the way Boris et al want it.

    * Short of Brexit kick-starting the supplier nations from holding the UK to ransom, which would be counter-productive in the long-run. No I don’t think it will be a massive problem. No I don’t think it will be plain sailing either. Somewhere in between. The simple answer is to avoid all the problems, and not invoke Brexit. I’ve still not heard a good case for it, but have heard many bad ones.

    All imho of course.

  33. @ EOR

    Wow, thanks for taking the challenge. It’s actually John Finnemore’s Souvenir Programme. I hadn’t mentioned John Finnemore for a bit, so thought it was about time. A quiz where all the questions are unknowable, subjective or forgotten. Such as who’s going to win the next GE? Nobody Knows! Which form of Brexit is best. Nobody Knows! What was life like before Brexit? Nobody Knows!

    On subject of sketches (and not unrelated to Young Ones), Alexei Sayle’s triumphant return to Radio 4 continues to excel. Fans of JC should certainly check out tonight’s episode:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0008bbc

    When’s the next poll coming? I suspect we’re not going to see much movement for a bit. Perhaps a month of polldrums before havoc breaks loose again around mid October.

  34. Looking around, there other forecasts out there.

    Electoral Calculus updated it’s prediction to the 10th September.

    Con 332
    Lab 214
    SNP 51
    Lib 31
    PC 3

    They don’t predict any BXP seats.

    Just to throw it in, my own prediction has been updated.

    Con 337
    Lab 200
    SNP 51
    LD 38
    PC 4

  35. Statgeek

    “There is a good case for wrapping up the whole thing, but not in the way Boris et al want it.”

    I think most people would wish for the first part of your sentence – but since there is disagreement over the 2nd part, then we need some way of deciding what is the best way of wrapping it up.

    It may all be “theatre”, but some form of representative democracy is probably the best way – and there isn’t time to institute an alternative format in the UK – since all those Con and Lab MPs thought it a jolly wheeze to table A50 without the faintest f****** clue as to what they thought it would entail.

  36. I am increasingly concerned that, so boxed in has Johnson now become, that he may opt for a “with one bound he was free” solution which gets us out of the EU by the end of October and also means he can turn down a GE on the basis that he offered one earlier and it was rejected – so sod off.

    To do this he just needs to change tack, negotiate a deal with the EU, which would simply involve capitulation with another name, and force his right wing to deal with it whilst simultaneously inviting the 21 back.

    Enough Labour members would go along with it and probably enough Tories also to get it through the HOC.

    Lib Dems would be snookered, Corbyn would be finished and Johnson could pick his time for a GE claiming that he had intended a deal all along.

    I hope I am wrong – so look forward to being told why.

  37. R&D

    I also hope you are wrong – but suspect that you are correct.

  38. OLDNAT

    Oh bugger.

  39. @My How we Laughed

    “I take Indepam, Ramipril, Amlodopine, Atenalol, and Omeprazole”

    Presumably in quite large doses and just before you submit your posts to UKPR.

    @R&D

    “I hope I am wrong – so look forward to being told why.”

    Here’s how his ruse might go wrong. Not enough of the 21 exiles will come back into the fold because they can’t reconcile themselves with a Johnson Premiership. Even with the DUP on board, and will they be after he’s “capitulated” to the EU on the Irish border and backstop, he hasn’t got a Commons majority and therefore can’t pass legislation and govern. He has to call a General Election where, because of the capitulations he’s made to the EU, the Brexit Party and Farage will eat his lunch.

    There you are. Do you feel better now?

    :-)

    :-)

  40. What I really need is for the T Warne consortium to tell me I’m right – then I could sleep more easily…

  41. CB11

    Yeah, I can see that it is knife edge stuff but, as things stand, so many elements are against him that he may feel it’s worth the gamble as he has nothing to lose.

    Hopefully that nice Mr Cummings will talk some sense into him – maybe with knuckledusters.

  42. @Mutts

    Assuming “capitulation” means no significant change on the NI front, here’s why (all figures, of course, guesstimates, and since they’re close I may well be wrong):

    Con: 288
    Lab rebels: 10
    Ind: 20
    TOTAL 318

    DUP:10
    Lab: 237
    SNP: 35
    LD: 17
    Ind: 15
    2 x IGC groupings / PC/ Green: 13
    Ind: 12

    TOTAL 321

  43. MY HOW WE LAUGHED
    “I take ramipril, indapamide, amlodopimine, statins, aspirin and insulin.
    Am I in the slightest concerned about a hard brexit? nope. Do I believe my supply will be interrupted? nope.”

    Maybe you’re to stoned to care?
    :)

  44. @Crossbat

    Since you normally post sensibly, I assume your last was aimed at MHWL, not me. My 5 drugs are for blood pressure and acid reflux, and are not mind-altering substances!

  45. MOG

    With figures like that he could then actually AGREE to a GE and – just possibly – stand a better chance of winning it because he was “seen” [by many Mr and Mrs Gullibles] as having tried his very best but was foiled by the dreaded remain alliance.

  46. @Mutts

    You may well be right. I just hope the Sanes outnumber the Gullibles, but I’m not confident.

  47. MOG

    The comic series entitled “Gullibles’ Travels”, that I submitted to Viz comics was brilliant.

    [Thought you should know.]

  48. Re the petition to the Court of Session to exercise nobile officium if Johnson fails to obey the Benn Act

    I wonder if this is being done at the moment to allow the Inner House to ponder whether they should take action at the critical stage, if Johnson does so fail to obey the law.

    Since he hasn’t yet done so, the current petition seems to clearly fail the need for urgency test. However, are the petitioners seeking to lay the grounds for the other tests –
    exceptional circumstances : does not contradict statute law
    : no other remedy available – should he fail to do so?

  49. @Mutts

    With my precience I submitted “Boris the Beautiful Bas*ard”, who was to have an improper relationship with Sid the Sexist, but it also was rejected.

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