Prorogation polling

Three polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation – have so far released polling on the government’s decision to prorogue Parliament in mid-September.

YouGov polled on the issue twice – a snap poll on the day of the announcement itself, with the same question repeated overnight. The on-the-day figures were 27% acceptable, 47% unacceptable, 26% don’t know. The follow-up poll had a similar split, but with the number of don’t knows dropping off as people became aware of the story – 31% said it was acceptable, 53% unacceptable, 16% don’t know. Tabs are here)

Ipsos MORI did an unusual online poll (almost alone among pollsters these days, most of their polling is done by phone). They found 30% thought the decision to prorogue Parliament was right, 46% thought it was wrong. Tables are here.

Finally there was a Survation poll for today’s Daily Mail. This found a closer result, with the public fairly evenly split – 39% were supportive, 40% opposed (note this is rounding the totals for support/oppose after they’ve been summed, hence the apparent discrepancy with the tables). Tables are here.

Overall it looks as if the public are opposed to the prorogation decision – though it is unclear to what degree. Whether that really matters or will make any dent in the government’s support is a different matter. Opposition to prorogation is concentrated among Remainers (in YouGov 82% of Remainers think the move is unacceptable, but only 24% of Leavers, in MORI’s poll 74% of Remainers think it was wrong, only 20% of Leavers, in Survation 74% Remainers, 14% leavers). If most of the opposition to the move comes from people who are opposed to the government’s policy anyway (and I expect the more fervent opposition comes from those who were most fervently opposed already) the government are hardly likely to worry too much over losing the crucial “people who hated us anyway” vote.

Both YouGov and Survation included voting intention in their surveys:

YouGov’s topline figures were CON 33%(-1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4), BREX 12%(-1), GRN 7%(-1)
Survation’s topline figures were CON 31%(+3), LAB 24%(nc), LD 21%(nc), BREX 14%(-2), GRN 3%(nc)

Changes in the YouGov poll are from a poll earlier this week, before the announcement. In Survation changes are from a poll three weeks ago. There is a little movement up and down, but certainly nothing that suggests the announcement has done immediate damage to Conservative support.


3,389 Responses to “Prorogation polling”

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  1. Survation are currently very much in line with YouGov. That’s new I think. Apart from Greens, which still looks a little odd, the differences could be consistent with pure statistical fluctuations.

  2. I put this at the end of the last thread but I thought people who might be interested might miss it so:
    As to the interim interdict decision in the Scottish courts if the law is anything similar to that in England and Wales then I am not at all surprised by the decision:
    The approach of the courts on interim injunctions in England and Wales is based on the questions set out in the case of American Cyanimid Co Ltd v Ethicon Ltd [1975] AC 396 which are:
    (1) Is there a serious issue to be tried? This requires the claimant/petitioner’s case to be taken at its height. It is likely that the court would consider this a serious issue because of the complex arguments advanced involving a significant constitutional question and it is not obviously without merit. (First stage to the claimant/petitioner)
    (2) Will damages provide and adequate remedy? Clearly the answer to this would be no! This Could not be the case in a question of constitutional propriety which might result in an irreversible change in the UK’s constitutional arrangements (so two points up for the claimant/petitioner).
    However these two points only get the claimant/petitioner over the line, if these aren’t crossed the application must be refused. At the next stage (which is the one on which most cases that reach court revolve) the court must consider the balance of convenience
    (2) The balance of convenience is decided (if tis is equal then the court will favour the status quo) at this stage the court is entitled to consider any relevant matter including the relative strengths of the parties cases. Just from the outside I would have thought that the Judge would be unlikely to have considered strength of cases at this point, however the key element could be that the case can be heard, and therefore a full interdict ordered, before the action which the government intends to take comes into effect, whereas to impose an interim order would prevent the government taking any steps in the preparation for the action thus, potentially interfering with its position if the government wins on the main action.
    With that in mind I am not reading anything into the interim decision as to its relationship with the final outcome. I have won permanent injunctions for a number of clients when I was at the Bar where the interim application had been roundly defeated!

  3. Thanks WB61

    A voice of reason and sanity.

  4. Just a bit away from Brexit.

    There will be state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg tomorrow.

    The polls (of 21st of August) put AfD at around 22-24%, which could mean that they would have a relative majority, but as nobody would make a coalition with them (at least they learnt something from the late 1920s, early 1930s), it is expected that the prime minister of Saxony would be from CDU, and of Saxony from the SOS

    Thüringia will have the election in October.

  5. Interesting polling.

    I would agree with AW’s idea that it’s remainers (mostly) upset about this, and hence it matters less.
    However, two thoughts:

    Firstly, he has galvanised the other side. This may turn out to be a bad move.

    Secondly, there is an issue of political capital. This goes up as well as down, so is my no means a fixed asset. If things go well for Brexit and Johnson, then this move will become more acceptable/popular and his reputation for decisiveness will be enhanced.

    But he is starting from a low point with prorogation, and if things start to go wrong, then this action will be identified more and more as a negative.

    @JiB (fpt) – “The EU told Johnson clearly that he had 30 days to come up with an alternative – that was practical – to the backstop.”

    No they didn’t. That is total nonsense. I heard Merkel when she first said it and all she was saying was that if there is a solution it should be possible to find it in thirty days, but that the UK had spent three years already searching for it and so nothing has changed.

    She was patiently explaining that the EU position is firm, and, as ever, they remain willing to accept any workable proposals.

    Don’t believe what the UK media say on this – they just aren’t very good at listening to EU leaders.

  6. @ Valerie

    Very kind; thank you!

  7. Alec: Don’t believe what the UK media say on this – they just aren’t very good at listening to EU leaders.

    That’s a very generous interpretation.

    I’d be a bit blunter:

    “Don’t believe what the UK media say on this – they are very good at misrepresenting EU leaders.”

  8. Survation ask the question in terms of “proroguing”, whereas the other polls spell out the effects. I would not say that YouGov have asked the question in an unfair way (“stop Parliament…). However, it does seem to make a difference.

    The main point of note are the other questions about no deal and leaving. A company which has tended to be lower in terms of Conservative lead is reporting reasonably favourable figures for “no deal”.

    I guess this is why there is an increased tone of “delay for more negotiations” from Remainers such as Gordon Brown and Philip Hammond – who previously would have probably discounted the possibility of any renegotiation.

  9. @alec

    ” I heard Merkel when she first said it and all she was saying was that if there is a solution it should be possible to find it in thirty days, but that the UK had spent three years already searching for it and so nothing has changed.”

    And so we come back to the illogical stance of Brexiters on this.

    They assert that technological solutions and other approaches will mean that no hard border will be necessary in which case there can be no great risk in agreeing to the backstop as the transition period in the WA would have provided the time to agree and implement them. Of course when they started to examine this in detail in the AAC report they found just how difficult that was and even the AAC said their recommendations would take 3 years to implement.

    The Eu said yesterday that they had sill not received any more proposals from the UK Government.

  10. @Dunham111 (posted in previous)

    “When push comes to shove, the EU will try to shaft the UK.”

    Of course they will. They have a position to maintain. Do you really think the US would be any different? The UK any different if the boot is on the other foot?

    Bear in mind that the UK started all this, the US has practically declared it will shaft the UK to get its own way, and that the UK was already part of the EU, so had a hand in things if it wanted it.

    Of course, the definition of ‘shaft’ changes from nation to nation, and situation to situation. Albion has been perfidious, as always. They want their cake, and they want to eat it too. They want all the up sides, and no downsides.

    Remember back in 2014, when Indyref folk said they would take their share of UK debt? Suddenly the amount of regional debt was a big thing. Scotland had a fiscal black hole, and the UK was running a normal deficit.

    Now we have the oddest data suggesting that more than half of UK deficit is in Scotland. 8% of the nation is generating 60% of the deficit? Really? The part of the nation with the oil is costing the whole the most?

    Once again, Scotland is the one nation on earth that is poorer for having oil. Who’s shafting who?

  11. @Hugo (previous)

    Whoever thought a flute march two days before an old firm game was a good idea should be jailed, along with every person who wanted a rammy on the street.

    I noticed recently that UEFA was quite happy to dish out disciplinary fines for sectarian behaviour, and the SFA was doing f-all. That’s the price of having the two largest clubs being at odds with each other on something other than football. I say good on UEFA.

    As for the Express headline “Ulster-style rioting”, it’s hardly that. In rUK, a couple of fires, and a line of police is just rioting. In Ulster, a couple of fires and a line of police is situation normal. ;)

  12. @Alec

    “No they didn’t. That is total nonsense. I heard Merkel when she first said it and all she was saying was that if there is a solution it should be possible to find it in thirty days, but that the UK had spent three years already searching for it and so nothing has changed.

    She was patiently explaining that the EU position is firm, and, as ever, they remain willing to accept any workable proposals.

    Don’t believe what the UK media say on this – they just aren’t very good at listening to EU leaders.”

    Negotiations are now ongoing working to reaching a compromise for the end of September. The overall aim of negotiations, led by Frost from the UK side, to present any compromise for agreement at the EU Council in mid October.

    If there is no deal by then, then we are looking at no deal or extension, unless MPs indicate they are prepared to accept the original May WA terms.

    It is you who is talking nonsense if you dispute the fact that there is an effective 30 day renegotiation window.

  13. @jib

    “Negotiations are now ongoing working to reaching a compromise for the end of September. ”

    Not really as the UK has not tabled any new proposals and the EU has simply said it is prepared to meet when the UK has something to say.

  14. JiB: ,i>Negotiations are now ongoing working to reaching a compromise for the end of September. The overall aim of negotiations, led by Frost from the UK side, to present any compromise for agreement at the EU Council in mid October.

    Would these be the negotiations that Johnson promised would not happen unless the EU abandoned the backstop?

    But as Alec points out, the 30 day remark was with reference to the timescale within which the UK side would have to present a practical, effective alternative to the backstop, if there was to be any chance of agreement.

    If the UK can come up with a realistic alternative to the backstop, in the time available, then we’re in business. The ball is entirely is Johnson’s court (or should that be Cummings’s court?)

  15. JiB:Negotiations are now ongoing working to reaching a compromise for the end of September. The overall aim of negotiations, led by Frost from the UK side, to present any compromise for agreement at the EU Council in mid October.

    Would these be the negotiations that Johnson promised would not happen unless the EU abandoned the backstop?

    But as Alec points out, the 30 day remark was with reference to the timescale within which the UK side would have to present a practical, effective alternative to the backstop, if there was to be any chance of agreement.

    There is not “an effective 30 day renegotiation window”. That window is for the presentation of workable backstop alternatives.

    If the UK can come up with a realistic alternative to the backstop, in the time available, then we’re in business. The ball is entirely is Johnson’s court (or should that be Cummings’s court?)

  16. One interesting point to note.

    If Johnson is to be believed, and if the promises of big spending are not just a short term one off for an expected election, we are now seeing a complete reversal of Conservative philosoply since 2009.

    Probably the least remembered but most important aspect of the 2010 election was when Cameron was asked by a firefighter whether the propsed emergy cuts would be reversed once the economy stabilised. He said no, effectively accepting the mantra of reducing the size of the state sector on a parmanent basis, under the cover of the financial crisis.

    This has basically held since then, but now Johnson is clearly signalling an expansion back to pre austerity levels – even if he doesn’t have the cash to pay for it.

    The question is whether we believe this is genuine, and where the money is coming from. There are no easy cuts to make now, and there is limited fiscal headroom for the kind of sums being touted. Borrowing in the only remaining option, against a backdrop of a flatering domestic and global economy.

    Is Johnson about to turn his back on Conservative economic orthodoxy? He is just the kind of politician who believes in nothing but himself and his own needs, so he may well become Labour Lite with regards the public sector. If he does, what does this mean for Brand Tory in the long run.

  17. I know that folk decry a second ref. and bicker about the question. Whether there should be two choices or three etc but I’m surprised I got so little reaction to my suggestion of a four choice referendum that I made a week or so back.
    Those four choices would be:
    Leave No Deal
    Leave with whichever deal is current
    Remain as at present, negotiating developments as they arise
    Remain and go full bore for complete EU integration.
    That way both Remain and Leave have two options, you could term them Hard and Soft.

  18. On the Yougov figures this gives the Tories a majority!
    Even though their vote share drops from 43.5% to 32% they gain 41 seats a go from 318 to 359!

    That’s FPTP for you.

    CON. 359 (+41), LAB. 174 (-88), LIB 44 (+32), Brexit 0 (0), Green 1 (0), SNP 52 (+17), PlaidC 2 (-2), UKIP 0 (0),
    Other 0 (0), N.Ire 18 (0).

    Peter.

  19. On the Survation poll of EU regional CBs (Remain data). Ranked by change high to low:

    London – 72% +12
    Scotland – 68% +6
    N. Ireland – 56% n/c
    Wales – 52% -1
    Midlands* – 54% -5
    North** – 49% -6
    South*** – 44% -9

    *Based on change from average of East & West Mids, and York & Humber
    ** Based on average of North East & North West
    *** Based on average of South East & South West

    A more simplified version:

    Scotland – 68%
    N. Ireland – 56%
    Wales – 52%
    England – 51%

    An even more simplified version:

    UK – 52.5%

    We have winner, and it’s unanimous! Obey the nation Mr. Johnson. ;)

  20. Correction:

    *** Based on average of Eastern, South East & South West

  21. @JiB – I think we can sort of agree. Merkel was v clever, as I said so at the time. She wasn’t proposing a thirty day timetable, which you so ably demonstrate when you say “Negotiations are now ongoing working to reaching a compromise for the end of September. ……..It is you who is talking nonsense if you dispute the fact that there is an effective 30 day renegotiation window.”

    She said this on August 21st, which would mean a 41 day deadline if we are talking about resolving by the end of September, so if that’s what she meant, she would have said 40 days. It was clearly meant as a figurative statement, designed with the sole intent to throw all responsiblity back onto the UK to provide the solution.

    But yes, we can agree that Johnson l!ed through his backside and is now negotiating, and that there are around thiry days left in which to get something worked up. That isn’t in dispute. In that, we can see that Merkel’s clever use of language worked rather well, as it has got the UK around the table.

    Next, as others have suggested, will be an EU extension to the Oct 31st deadline, for more talking. I think ordinarily they perhaps wouldn’t go down this route, s it removes their key pressure point, but in this case, I suspect they are looking more at the Brexit legacy, rather than getting a deal. They would probably be happier seeing Johnson take flak for a no deal, so would like him to be the one rejecting their offer of more time.

  22. @Hidreton

    “Not really as the UK has not tabled any new proposals and the EU has simply said it is prepared to meet when the UK has something to say.”

    Not really? Twice a week meetings? Or are they discussing the weather?

  23. “Don’t believe what the UK media say on this”

    Does the UK media meet in a room once a week to decide what to say? What happens if one of them breaks ranks? Do they have their pencils confiscated? The notion that there’s a monolithic, conspiratorial, dishonest beast called ‘the UK media’ is absurd. Most journalists are fiercely competitive and uncooperative by nature.

  24. @Somerjohn

    “Would these be the negotiations that Johnson promised would not happen unless the EU abandoned the backstop?”

    The UK agreed a deal with the backstop, it is the UK that has then decided it does not want thar deal agreed.

    It really is a case of the ball being in the UKs court now. It is only fair the UK specifies a workable solution!

  25. @alec

    “If Johnson is to be believed, and if the promises of big spending are not just a short term one off for an expected election, we are now seeing a complete reversal of Conservative philosoply since 2009.”

    I think more profoundly we are actually witnessing the end of the Tory party as a one nation, unionist centre right group.

    A couple of weeks ago Owen Paterson MP said that once Brexit had happened the party could “purge” the “Remainers” and follow a hard right wing agenda. Three of the authors of “Britannia Unchained” are now in senior ministerial office. Today, it is being reported that Cummings has told all Tory MPs that unless they back Johnson during the next crucial weeks they will be deselected as Tory MPs by Conservative Central Office regardless of the view of their constituency associations which will give practical effect to the “purge”.

    That comes at the end of the week in which a former Conservative PM joins a court action against a Conservative Government on a fundamental constitutional issue and a former Conservative Chancellor and Home Secretary has said the if necessary he will vote against a Conservative Government in a VONC joining other Tory MPs.

    It is also the week in which the leader of the Scottish Conservatives resigned as she could not reconcile herself to the direction of the party. The BTL comments on her decision from Tory members and supporters were pretty much along the lines that she wasn’t a “true” Tory” like this one from ConservativeHome:

    “Ruth Davidson is much over rated and like a lot in the current parliamentary Tory party is a leftie Liberal masquerading as Conservative. Good riddance to her!”

    Polling shows that party members place more importance on achieving Brexit than maintaining the UK. And so on.

    A Conservative party which is “purging” dissenting voices, which cannot comfortably contain the likes of Ruth Davidson as she is too “liberal” and sees the UK as expendable is not much more than UKIP.

    So at the moment it looks like trade policy is shattering the party as it did in the middle of the nineteenth century and early twentieth century.

  26. @jib

    “Not really? Twice a week meetings? Or are they discussing the weather?”

    Pretty much. No new proposals from the UK, no negotiations.

  27. @jib

    Meant to include this:

    “A European Commission spokesman said: “David Frost has asked to meet the Commission twice a week to discuss the U.K.’s withdrawal. We have always said that our doors remain open and we have demonstrated our willingness to work 24/7 throughout this long process.“We expect the U.K. to come forward with concrete proposals as President Juncker made clear to Prime Minister Johnson earlier this week.”

  28. I think Merkel in the last four years answered to all questions: “we must find an answer to the problem in XY days.”

  29. Alec,
    “I would agree with AW’s idea that it’s remainers (mostly) upset about this, and hence it matters less.”

    I commented on the poll in the last thread, and noticed this. 82% of remainers went for not accetable (as you might expect), but 24% of leavers also thought it unacceptable. Thats actually quite a lot.

    If they all boycotted support for BJ because they were upset about this, he would be sunk. But they might not be that upset, the question is a forced choice of acceptable/unacceptable.

  30. @ Alec

    “Firstly, he has galvanised the other side. This may turn out to be a bad move.”

    Difficult to be sure about this. As far as I can see all he has galvanised is for remain to campaign against the suspension of parliament which is rather a wild goose chase with prospects of limited success but with the clock running down while they try.

    The remain focus needs to be on pressurising the waverers in parliament- mainly changeUk and rebel Tories plus some soft leave on the Labour side and to get Plan A’s, Plan B’s and Plan C’s. While they are off chasing prorogation of parliament they aren’t actually moving forward on the key issue of vote of no confidence.

    We are still yet to see a clearly thought out strategy even on parliamentary business plans and I can’t help but feel that Cummings has already run the blocking scenarios to his satisfaction.

  31. What are those regional statistics statgeek?

  32. @SDA

    “I know that folk decry a second ref. and bicker about the question. Whether there should be two choices or three etc but I’m surprised I got so little reaction to my suggestion of a four choice referendum that I made a week or so back.

    Those four choices would be:
    Leave No Deal
    Leave with whichever deal is current
    Remain as at present, negotiating developments as they arise
    Remain and go full bore for complete EU integration.
    That way both Remain and Leave have two options, you could term them Hard and Soft.”

    ———

    I didn’t spot your post, but like the idea of evening things up a bit as you suggest. It’s possible it night get more complicated though: for example some might want a question about whether or not we should have so,e integration of a more Atlantic nature.

    We set up a system conducive to changing parties every few years; if we changed the system so it was easy to move between trade zones etc. then that might make life easier. All the trade zones, like parties, could bid for our membership.

    (If one dreams a little more, one could imagine a another universe in which the people of the UK could vote over which parliament governs the UK. Maybe it’s not that practical, but I quite like the idea in principle of all nations of the UK having their own parliament that can compete with the others for who runs the UK for a while. Might concentrate minds a bit…)

  33. “The German chancellor told Boris Johnson on Wednesday she sees “possibilities” to solve the Irish backstop problem and avoid a no-deal Brexit but it is up to the U.K. to come up with a workable plan. “We can maybe find it in the next 30 days,” the chancellor said, standing alongside Johnson in Berlin.

    A day later and Merkel clarified what she meant. “I said that what one can achieve in three or two years can also be achieved in 30 days,” she said during a visit to The Hague, according to Reuters.
    “The 30 days were meant as an example to highlight the fact that we need to achieve it in a short time because Britain had said they want to leave the European Union on October 31,” Merkel said.

  34. 24% of leavers against prorogation would be a similar number to that for Leavers who would not want to leave with no deal which IIRC is typically around 1/5 – 1/4 of leave voters.

  35. Statgeek,

    An equally simple explanation; Boris and his tactics have gone down badly in the most pro remain anti Tory parts of the U.K, London & Scotland.

    Reading an interesting article based on research in the NYT last week;

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/opinion/trump-white-voters.html

    Carry that thesis over to the U.K. and you could argue that in Scotland the SNP has captured the middle class Labour vote, the one that stayed loyal in Scotland when it shifted to the Tories in England after Thatcher, while in London, the Tories have lost the middle class vote to Labour first but now with Brexit possible sharing it with the LibDems.

    That would explain at least in part both the results you showed and a potential rise in Tory seats on a lower vote share.

    The Tories declining where they were already weak so not doing focused damage but their loss being spread amongst opponents and so preventing a Labour challenge!

    Peter.

  36. @Statgeek: ‘Now we have the oddest data suggesting that more than half of UK deficit is in Scotland. 8% of the nation is generating 60% of the deficit? Really? The part of the nation with the oil is costing the whole the most?’

    Have you considered the possibility that the oil exploration and extraction industry receives more in subsidies than it pays in taxes? [I’m not saying that _is_ necessarily the case – I don’t know one way or the other – I’m just raising it as a theoretical possibility.]

  37. HDAN @ Statgeek

    On fiscal deficits, we don’t have the figures for the other NUTS1 regions, but last year, England (excl Lon, E & SE) had 159% of the UK’s fiscal deficit, if the calculation is done in the remarkably foolish way that suggests that Scotland has 50% of it.

    I doubt that oil had much to do with that.

  38. “VALERIE
    Thanks WB61

    A voice of reason and sanity.”

    Blimey – how was that allowed to sneak in?

  39. @hdan @statgeek @oldnat

    “Now we have the oddest data suggesting that more than half of UK deficit is in Scotland. 8% of the nation is generating 60% of the deficit? Really? The part of the nation with the oil is costing the whole the most?’”

    Have you considered the possibility that the oil exploration and extraction industry receives more in subsidies than it pays in taxes? [I’m not saying that _is_ necessarily the case – I don’t know one way or the other – I’m just raising it as a theoretical possibility.]”

    It’s just the arithmetic and how it is presented!

    Take a country X made up of A.B and C.

    A has a deficit of -10, B has a deficit of -10 and C has a surplus of +10.

    Overall, X has a deficit of -10.

    Clearly, 100% of that “originates” in A. And equally clearly 100% of it also “originates” in B!

    It would be more accurate but not very informative to say that the deficits of A and B are both equivalent to X’s deficit but not to say 100% of it “originates” in only one of them.

    Now take the UK in which only London and SE England and just barely E England have fiscal surpluses according to ONS experimental figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2018

    It is possible to say that Scotland’s deficit is equivalent to about 30% of the UK deficit on these figures. It is as equally valid to say that NW England’s deficit is equivalent to about 50% of the UK surplus and so on for every UK economic region with a deficit which will of course total over 100%.

    The presentation of the figures which is generally made seeks to blame the deficit regions rather than asking about the economic imbalances in the UK.

  40. Having the four choices in a second ref means that both Leave and Remain have two options each meaning that the problem with three choices is equalised and both Leave and Remain have split votes.

    My own view would be that current results, in round figures, would be something like:
    Leave No Deal 15%
    Leave with whichever deal is current 30%
    Remain as at present, negotiating developments as they arise 50%
    Remain and go full bore for complete EU integration.5%

    On that basis Johnson is threatening to take us somewhere that has just 15% support, or if a deal is forced through then 30% support. Completely ignoring something that has 50% support.

    How can that be allowed to happen in a democracy.

  41. @”Not really? Twice a week meetings? Or are they discussing the weather?”

    From the Irish Times

    “For Frost and others believing a deal achievable, the key target has always been the October European Council. At this meeting they hope the EU will concede that the backstop is in fact untenable and unnecessary, and agree to move discussions to the future trade agreement, thus limiting guaranteed future alignment to the transition period of two years. The proposals of the Alternative Arrangements Commission, published in July, will be used as evidence that the UK can diverge in terms of regulations while still avoiding border infrastructure.

    In this analysis the UK team is not seeking to put forward new proposals, not least because anything that has a chance of being accepted by the EU would almost certainly rile hardline Brexiteers including cabinet ministers. Instead we hear talk of ‘mini deals’ or ‘sectoral deals’, revised talk of trusted traders, which seem to aim to decompose the backstop into constituent parts, and make them part of a package to be agreed alongside or soon after the withdrawal agreement.”

  42. What are the numbers (and changes) in Statgeeks 1.43pm?

    If remain support – it is unlkely to be change from referendum (e.g. see wales) so change from what?

  43. @Hireton

    “I think more profoundly we are actually witnessing the end of the Tory party as a one nation, unionist centre right group.”

    I’ve thought this for some time and while it may do them no immediate electoral harm as the Brexit culture wars rage. it may actually benefit them in the short term, I see little way back for them mid to long term, not as a viable centre right political party anyway. Their direction of travel has been steadily rightward for a decade or more now as they have tried to disarm first UKIP and now the Brexit Party by stealing these parties clothes rather than taking their right wing populist policies on. Camerton, May and now Johnson have all adopted this strategy; aping UKIP and Brexit Party’s policies in the hope that it entices their voters back into the Tory fold.

    Hard right entryism, threatened purges of “lefty” Tory MPs and non-believers, overt Islamaphobia amongst the membership, and internal warfare between leading party figures; all virtually ignored by a supine media. Chaotic government from a dysfunctional political party.

    A chance, albeit a fleeting one, to bring all this to an end next week in Parliament? Can the opposition parties seize the day? Some may say that it is their national duty to do so. Fail, and I think we may be looking at a Tory majority government pretty soon, with Brexit, hard or fudged, a done deal. Then, I think the Tory Party will eventually have an almighty fall, their internal contradictions and enmities brought to their inevitable conclusions as the reality of Brexit unwinds into a myriad of disappointments.

    Tempting to witness the destruction and comeuppance? I’ve toyed with this thought and mulled over whether the forthcoming election would be a good one to lose. I don’t do schadenfreude and fear the interim damage to our country. I’d prefer to prevent it if we could.

    Big, big week for the opposition parties, and quite a few Tory MPs too next week. Cometh the hour and all that.

  44. Steamdrivenandy

    “How can that happen in a democracy”.

    Why not MP’s have ignored the 52% who voted leave in 2016 at least Johnson is trying to force through the original result.
    So much fake outrage about Johnson being undemocratic re the suspension of Parliament much of which is emanating from people who have done everything in there power to deny the democratic rights of the 17.4 million people who voted leave.

  45. Turk,

    A genuine question.

    Most polling shows that 20%+ of leave voters would put remain above leaving without a deal which suggests that leaving with no deal would not have won the referendum v remain.

    We know most prominent leave supporters said we would strike a deal so is it not fair to ask all voters to choose between no deal and remain?

  46. Bank of England on the Brexit effect on productivity (the first three clicks are not behind paywall).

    https://on.ft.com/2UiCHDt

  47. @ Shevii

    “The remain focus needs to be on pressurising the waverers in parliament- mainly changeUk and rebel Tories plus some soft leave on the Labour side and to get Plan A’s, Plan B’s and Plan C’s. While they are off chasing prorogation of parliament they aren’t actually moving forward on the key issue of vote of no confidence”.

    Yes! Don’t personally agree that pressurising MPs is a good way to go but 100 percent agree that remain needs plan As, Bs and Cs and that these need to be discussed with the groups you mention.

    If it turns out that the only way to stop Johnson is a VONC plus a temporary government. I think Labour has to compromise on whether Corby leads it. This is in the national interest but it is also in Labour’s and anything else threatens them very severely.

    Forgetting the national interest it seems to me that Labour has at all costs to stop NO DEAL and get an election before Johnson takes us over a cliff. If Johnson succeeds he will have disposed of UKIP and can call an election at a time of his choosing and on a nationalist anti-austerity agenda. The ‘left’ will be split and a lot of people I know will be very angry with Corbyn who seems to currently at the Nadir of his popularity. They will go Lib Dem or Green and Johnson may well get a landslide with Labour then struggling as hard to revive in England as in Scotland.

    By contrast an election before Brexit will keep UKIP alive (it is still at 12 per cent) and give it a shot in the arm because Johnson is not delivering. Although I doubt that the parties will get as far as a formal pact, voters in Brecon and Peterborough have shown that they can work things out and vote accordingly. All Labour has to do is to put forward a sufficiently remain agenda and it stands a good chance of being the largest party.

  48. SDA
    “That way both Remain and Leave have two options, you could term them Hard and Soft.”

    The problem with your 4-way question is thatno option would be likely to get more than about 30-35% of votes cast, so whichever way it went the other side could legitimately say it was undemocratic. Suppose it went like this for example:

    Hard Brexit 15%
    Deal 30%
    Remain as is 25%
    Integrate more 25%

    Remain would say that their total was more than the Leave total, but Leave would say that one of their options was the highest. Nothing would be settled.

  49. Carfrew
    “… I quite like the idea in principle of all nations of the UK having their own parliament that can compete with the others for who runs the UK for a while. Might concentrate minds a bit…)”

    I assume that’s a joke? England would win every time.

  50. Valerie,

    Rory Stewart moving strongly towards voting against the Government .On a VONC though? Still doubt it.

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