Prorogation polling

Three polling companies – YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation – have so far released polling on the government’s decision to prorogue Parliament in mid-September.

YouGov polled on the issue twice – a snap poll on the day of the announcement itself, with the same question repeated overnight. The on-the-day figures were 27% acceptable, 47% unacceptable, 26% don’t know. The follow-up poll had a similar split, but with the number of don’t knows dropping off as people became aware of the story – 31% said it was acceptable, 53% unacceptable, 16% don’t know. Tabs are here)

Ipsos MORI did an unusual online poll (almost alone among pollsters these days, most of their polling is done by phone). They found 30% thought the decision to prorogue Parliament was right, 46% thought it was wrong. Tables are here.

Finally there was a Survation poll for today’s Daily Mail. This found a closer result, with the public fairly evenly split – 39% were supportive, 40% opposed (note this is rounding the totals for support/oppose after they’ve been summed, hence the apparent discrepancy with the tables). Tables are here.

Overall it looks as if the public are opposed to the prorogation decision – though it is unclear to what degree. Whether that really matters or will make any dent in the government’s support is a different matter. Opposition to prorogation is concentrated among Remainers (in YouGov 82% of Remainers think the move is unacceptable, but only 24% of Leavers, in MORI’s poll 74% of Remainers think it was wrong, only 20% of Leavers, in Survation 74% Remainers, 14% leavers). If most of the opposition to the move comes from people who are opposed to the government’s policy anyway (and I expect the more fervent opposition comes from those who were most fervently opposed already) the government are hardly likely to worry too much over losing the crucial “people who hated us anyway” vote.

Both YouGov and Survation included voting intention in their surveys:

YouGov’s topline figures were CON 33%(-1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4), BREX 12%(-1), GRN 7%(-1)
Survation’s topline figures were CON 31%(+3), LAB 24%(nc), LD 21%(nc), BREX 14%(-2), GRN 3%(nc)

Changes in the YouGov poll are from a poll earlier this week, before the announcement. In Survation changes are from a poll three weeks ago. There is a little movement up and down, but certainly nothing that suggests the announcement has done immediate damage to Conservative support.


3,389 Responses to “Prorogation polling”

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  1. NEILJ

    It’s only that simple if you only care about Brexit. Even on here that’s not everyone. Out there I suspect it’s not even many.

    If you’re not one of those the “complications” matter. I’m more likely to vote LibDem based on its move to back Remain, less likely based on its apparent lurch to the right. For many, these things still matter. And they should if we’re electing a Parliament and indirectly a government likely to serve for five years and to have to deal with everything while it’s in place.

  2. So, Turk, are you claiming that the 15,000 people who attend the Braemar Gathering are “a boorish bunch” who believe that shouting down is a substitute for debate.

    It was these people that Johnson deliberately avoided because he realised he was likely to receive a public display showing his unpopularity. Likewise for his movements across Aberdeenshire on the previous day being deliberately withheld from the press, so only selected guests would be allowed near him.

    A prime minister who cannot face the public is useless for the UK, and cannot heal the deep divisions that fanatical Leavers have caused. .

  3. @peterw – I don’t know.

    A number of legal experts rubbished the idea that Johnson could just ask for an extension and then find some way to scupper that, as this would be illegal because Bill 6 commands him to “seek to obtain” an extension.

    We’ll see, but really, if it comes down to engineering a no deal exit by willfully evading legal obligations placed on him by parliament, then he won’t be well placed to blame anyone else for the wreckage that ensues.

    At least we’ll be rid of the Tories for several generations.

  4. I have an interesting question for someone knowledgeable…..

    Assume Labour form a Government but only with the SNP or LDs……

    Due to the English Votes for English Laws…….

    Is it possible Labour have a UK majority, but an English & Welsh minority?

    For example, Scotland have devolved tax affairs, so I assume if Labour wanted to increase income tax, Scottish MPs would not be able to vote?

  5. @BRXT

    I’m no expert, but if Lab + SNP, Lab + LD or Lab + LD + SNP is a majority, they could introduce a bill or some device to change/eliminate EVEL?

    A previous decision can’t over rule a fresh decision in a new parliament.

    (Anyone please tell me if I’m wrong here)

  6. Turk: I would think the going’s on in Luxembourg will only re enforce the general public’s view of the EU and remainers in general.

    How does one distinguish between the general public and remainers in general? Have remainers in general been separated from the general public?

  7. @CATMANJEFF

    Thanks. I forgot about that but that would be very controversial, Labour need English voters.

  8. PETERW
    It’s only that simple if you only care about Brexit. Even on here that’s not everyone. Out there I suspect it’s not even many.
    If you’re not one of those the “complications” matter. I’m more likely to vote LibDem based on its move to back Remain, less likely based on its apparent lurch to the right. For many, these things still matter. And they should if we’re electing a Parliament and indirectly a government likely to serve for five years and to have to deal with everything while it’s in place.’

    Well for me Brexit is part of that but before then I would vote either lib dem or Labour to keep the Conservatives out, I suspect I am not alone. The only times I did not was in 2015 and 2017 after the coalition. I think the lid-dems have been punished enough for that and will now give them another chance if it means I don’t get a Conservative representing me, especially the current bunch.

    If Labour had any chance of getting in in my area I would vote for them, but they don’t so I wont. So for me and I suspect a lot of others, it is that simple

  9. CMJ

    EVEL is just in Standing Orders I believe. You don’t need to legislate to change them.

    Indeed you don’t even need to change them if you can get a tame Speaker to ignore them.

  10. The best way for Labour to become more Remainy and have a policy that makes more sense to the voter would be to change the policy

    From:
    – negotiate a new deal with the EU that “protects Jobs and workers rights” and have a 2nd referendum between this deal and remain.

    To:
    Hold a 2nd referendum on the Question of Remain and Leave (before negotiate a new deal). If the result is Leave the party would negotiate a deal that “protects jobs and workers rights”

  11. @PeterW

    They are just standing orders.

    Thank you!

  12. GARJ

    “that no checks on North/South trade can be allowed to take place anywhere, or else the UK must be held inside the CU and SM.”

    So – that’s extreme?

    Not very long ago, Mrs May did not think it extreme that there should be an explicit commitment to an all-Ireland economy. One that respected the rights and obligations of Ireland within the Single Market. Also, Northern Ireland’s economy, particularly agri-food, depends on an all-Ireland economy. Damage to that has the strong likelihood that harm will be done not only to the NI economy, but to NI society.There is a House of Lords report on the matter as well.

    There are not alternative arrangements that work at present.

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/76/7609.htm

    In time we will see how this works out and it is likely to be settled by political and negotiating strength.

  13. @ PETERW – Thank you for your ongoing legal input.

    You (and others) mention LDEM’s “apparent lurch to the right”

    Is that a “relative” lurch or an “absolute” lurch?

    “Relative” in the context of LAB moving further left since GE’17 manifesto and LDEM’s not really changing much or “absolute” in the context of some new LDEM policies that are further right than their GE’17 manifesto.

    Attached is LDEM conf agenda and still some votes to come but I don’t see many (if any) policies than are further RoC than GE’17 but since LDEM are not in my “Evoked” set then maybe I missed something.

    Could you point out the specific policies that you feel are a “lurch to the right” (and say whether or not this is a relative or absolute shift).

    Any other LAB-LDEM marginal voter is welcome to contribute

    NB If you mention “Green” policies then IMO LAB will be moving much more Green (eg carbon neutral by 2030) than LDEM (ban on plastic etc) but both are moving more Green (ie that is a “relative” less Green policy from LDEM when compared to LAB but still an “absolute” shift to a more Green policy).

    PS I’m keen to see LDEM’s “maths” on their package of tax and spending changes. Boris + Javid have been a bit “naughty” with their plans and “promises” due to the timing of the next OBR forecast but I’d be surprised if LDEM don’t take that “bait”…

  14. Phil Hogan the new EU Trade Commissioner gives an interview.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/–951119.html

  15. @ TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER

    “How does one distinguish between the general public and remainers in general? Have remainers in general been separated from the general public?”

    It’s the self righteous gobby ones who approach us in the street that are easy to tell then there are those with the silly EU berets, those wearing “Bellocks to Brexit” t-shirts and others I’ve seen with daft EU wristbands. Otherwise i just can’t distinguish at all :|)

  16. I think it is clear that the EU intends to see what the House of Commons can do for it rather than compromise. (Obviously, Philip Hammond will simultaneously blame Boris Johnson for asking for too much, while ignoring the EU’s refusal to compromise the smallest bit, but that is another thing.)

    The reason why this is now clear has nothing to do with the logic of the EU’s position or the UK’s.

    It is simply that the Luxembourger prime minister would not have pulled that stunt if he imagined that in a year’s time there could be a post-Brexit UK headed by Boris Johnson.

    It is also something he would hardly do if he thought it might anger those of real importance in the EU.

    It was the action of someone who expects that in six months time Prime Minister Starmer will be shaking his hand and congratulating him on the encouragement he gave to the Remainer cause.

  17. bantams: @ TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER: “How does one distinguish between the general public and remainers in general? Have remainers in general been separated from the general public?”

    It’s the self righteous gobby ones who approach us in the street that are easy to tell then there are those with the silly EU berets, those wearing “Bellocks to Brexit” t-shirts and others I’ve seen with daft EU wristbands. Otherwise i just can’t distinguish at all :|)

    So none of the general public:
    * are self righteous
    * are gobby
    * wear silly EU berets
    * wear “Bellocks to Brexit” t-shirts
    * have daft EU wristbands

    Should people excluded from the general public on any of these criteria be allowed to vote? Should they have their citizenship revoked?

  18. The good news is that the government has found a surefire way to stop income inequality. Of course, it has to be accompanied by a lever that ensures we get the right people for the job and million/billionaires.

    IFS reports –

    “Overall income inequality was stable in 2017–18 because there was essentially zero income growth across most of the income distribution. Although overall inequality did not change in the official statistics, there is other evidence that very high earners have recently seen somewhat faster pay growth: The OBR’s most recent report finds that that in April-September 2018, annual cash-terms pay growth was 5.9% for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to 3.7% on average;”

  19. joseph1832: I think it is clear that the EU intends to see what the House of Commons can do for it rather than compromise. (Obviously, Philip Hammond will simultaneously blame Boris Johnson for asking for too much, while ignoring the EU’s refusal to compromise the smallest bit, but that is another thing.)

    The reason why this is now clear has nothing to do with the logic of the EU’s position or the UK’s.

    It is simply that the Luxembourger prime minister would not have pulled that stunt if he imagined that in a year’s time there could be a post-Brexit UK headed by Boris Johnson.

    It is also something he would hardly do if he thought it might anger those of real importance in the EU.

    I think it was Luxembourg playing to its strengths. A bigger country would have had a large enough room for the press conference available at short notice.

  20. I think there is a bit of information missing from this advice given by Stockport’s biggest landlord, Stockport Home. The landlord wants those moving from Housing Benefit to Universal Credit to save some money since there is a delay in getting UC paid. The saved money can cushion people against rent arrears.

    The missing bit of information is that prospective UC clients should be saving other people’s money.

    https://www.katebelgrave.com

    “This “advice” is an admission by the largest landlord in Stockport that built-in Universal Credit delays cause serious hardship to the worst off people in Stockport and threaten their tenancies.

    It’s an instruction to people who have no money to save money to protect themselves against Universal Credit’s serious flaws. This is garbage. Those of us who leaflet at Stockport jobcentre know people can’t save enough to build a rent buffer. We keep meeting Universal Credit claimants who are in serious rent arrears and either facing homelessness, or are actually homeless.”

  21. Written statements by the participants in tomorrow’s UK Supreme Court are here –

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/brexit/written-cases-of-the-parties.html

    HMG off to a flying start by misspelling Lord Drummond Young’s name!

  22. @ SAM – from your link:

    “However, he (Phil Hogan, new EU Trade Commissioner) was unequivocal in that “whatever happens, pragmatic solutions will be found to support Ireland and in particular the agri-food economy on the island of Ireland …. with a small bit of give and take, we can still do a huge amount to mitigate the worst risks of Brexit.”

    Pragmatic solutions eh? Or as Varadkar once called it a “No Deal deal”. Mini-deals, bilateral deals, etc surely not ;)
    (that’s the “wink” symbol as EC-EU27 can’t be seen to “blink” can they)

    So the tiniest wee little smudge of a red line on RoI-EC26 border (which is not a land border), a Le Touquet+ style approach to customs inspections (ie away from the border) and a temporary “tolerance” of non-compliance on paperwork, etc and job done.

    Any “teething” or “ongoing” issues will fall under jurisdiction of WTO and those cases will take time.

    So details aside all we need to know now is what “price” EC-EU26 will charge RoI for the “cash” part of the “support Ireland” package of solutions?!?

    Now what might Macron+Merkel want from the tax haven more commonly known as RoI?!? ;)

  23. Davwel

    If your talking about the demonstration in Luxembourg today the press reports I’ve read is anything from 50-200 protesters in the square certainly not 15,000 .
    As to Johnson frighten to meet the public It seems to me almost everyday he is out in the streets meeting people of course the press only choose to show the hecklers but what more do you expect from the media.

    TCO

    The remainers I’ve seen on TV certainly seem to either shout very loud whilst interviews outside Westminster are being conducted or stand up in that most hallowed EU Parliament with Boll*cks to brexit on there T-shirts.
    Nice.

  24. Does anyone else, when logging into UKPR, get a page that says its not possible to log in because the UKPR host is busy?

  25. TWeet Kate McCann

    Kate McCann
    @KateEMcCann
    · Sep 15
    “The Hulk was a winner and was extremely popular”, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay says of his boss the PM, adding Hulk is better than ‘chicken run’ Jeremy Corbyn. Sentences you didn’t expect to be typing when you decided to become a political journalist

  26. @Prof

    Sometimes (rarely) get a Cloudfare error. More often the site takes a while to load, but hitting F5 kicks it into shape, usually.

  27. @ Turk

    “The remainers I’ve seen on TV certainly seem to either shout very loud whilst interviews outside Westminster”

    Yes, this does happen, but you’re being very selective. The problem is that the ones that get onto TV on both sides of the argument tend to be the shouty (and often rude) ones. Remember this one?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWalesNews/status/1130940872445579264

    The saddest thing about this clip is that the protester didn’t even realise the MP was (sort of) on her side.

    I’m sorry, but anyone that claims the moral high ground on this is fooling themselves and no-one else. Both sides are pretty much as bad as each other at this point.

  28. TW

    You misunderstand – that all happens within the EU to assist only Ireland.

    One might interpret what Hogan says to mean that the EU has had enough and wants the UK out.

  29. [email protected] The remainers I’ve seen on TV certainly seem to either shout very loud whilst interviews outside Westminster are being conducted or stand up in that most hallowed EU Parliament with Boll*cks to brexit on there T-shirts.

    Not all of those standing up in the European Parliament are Remainers. A quick tip here, those standing up with their backs turned in the manner of the NSDAP 1920’s protests in the Reichstag are very likely not Remainers.

  30. I’m amazed that some, otherwise sensible, folk on here are quoting TV and press vox pops as “evidence” of the balance of opinion (or indeed any reality) in their reports.

    To illustrate –

    In 1964, during the typhoid epidemic in Aberdeen, an English ITV company came north to film the brutal reality. Their assumption was (quite logically) that the pubs would be relatively empty [1], and they set out to film that.

    After failing, all week, to find an empty pub, they decided to film on Sunday evening (their last day) in a run down hotel – unaware that that was where the Aberdeen Folk Club met.

    Eventually (after hours) they provided an impoverished student with a pint, and filmed him sitting alone in a corner of an empty bar.

    I rather enjoyed that pint!

    [1] For a reason I still don’t fully understand, it was the cinemas that were relatively empty, while the pubs did a roaring trade.

  31. Example 2

    BBC Scotland did a “documentary” on student life in the 60s.

    One section showed an almost empty Library, and a packed Beer Bar in the Union – both shot at “9 o’clock”.

    I was in both – having been in the Library at 9am on the Saturday morning, and at 9pm on the Saturday evening in the Union.

  32. Stetgeek, yes, cloudfare errors. I get them annoyingly often.

  33. “I was in both – having been in the Library at 9am on the Saturday morning, and at 9pm on the Saturday evening in the Union”

    Well done on getting to the library at 9am, that marks you out as a more diligent student.

  34. @OLDNAT

    Alcohol is a much better antiseptic than popcorn.

  35. New thread.

  36. You’ve got to love these people. Ian Duncan Smith, failed leader, and once insistent that leaving the EU meant getting a brilliant deal very easily, now looks for who he can blame – “Remainers’ overwhelming allegiance to the EU cause has created our political crisis” reads his childlike article in the DT.

    At no point do he ever acknowledge that his leave campaign was a pack of l!es, nor does he take any responsibility for the political crisis caused by promising things that can’t be delivered and then changing what you want to deliver into the very thing you denied would ever be Brexit.

    Laughable, if it was just some fun and games at Westminster, but this stuff matters.

  37. @JIMR

    Interesting points. I’d agree that a 70% turnout seems far more instinctively plausible than an 85% turnout, but then it highlights the wider problem we have with polls (as we did in 2017) where they are so far apart that at least some of them have to be actually wrong in their methodology, not just a bit out with their sampling. And once we accept that, it’s an open question as to which ones are likely to be right, which people naturally tend to answer with instinct and a reflection of their own aspirations, in the absence of any objective logic.

    Your point about unregistered voters is something that’s often overlooked – have you seen any analysis on what effect an election has, beyond the numbers that get published showing the number of applications made?

    Asking that specific question cos I’d be really interested if that data is out there… number of people applying to register through the website doesn’t by itself mean much as we have no idea how many of them are already registered and are applying again because they’re unsure, or are people who have recently moved house in the same constituency, or are students who are registered at home registering in their term-time constituency as well… all good things to be encouraged but none of them people who are “missing” from the electoral roll to start with.

    Still an important question tho, having some idea of the actual numbers would be really useful for the presumed impending campaign!

  38. OLDNAT

    “SLD also likely to take the highly marginal NE Fife – especially if SCon and SLab choose to do no more than field paper candidates (with the expectations that the favour will be returned elsewhere).“

    In 2017, the people with sorest heads were the Conservatives. The ‘Ruth Davidson Party’ had put out a leaflet claiming that only they could win here. It probably dissuaded a few – just enough – to NOT lend their votes to SLD. If there had been an immediate re-run of the election, I think SLD would have won.

    (The actual margin was 2. My wife and I were on holiday, and we sent in postal votes. I like to think that ours were decisive,)

    With SLD now clearly a Remain party, it may work in the SNPs favour. Tory voters in the NO – LEAVE quadrant may be reluctant to lend their votes to SLD.

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