A very quick update on voting intention polls over the last few weeks. As usual August is a relatively quiet period – opinion pollsters have holidays too. The fact that we have a new Prime Minister hasn’t made much change to that. In August so far we’ve had five voting intention polls:

BMG/Independent (Dates TBC) – CON 31%, LAB 25%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN ?
ComRes/Telegraph (11th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 27%, LDEM 16%, BREX 16%, GRN 4% (tabs)
Survation (11th Aug) – CON 28%, LAB 24%, LDEM 21%, BREX 15%, GRN 3% (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (9th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, BREX 16%, GRN 5% (tabs)
YouGov/Times (6th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 22%, LDEM 21%, BREX 14%, GRN 7% (tabs)

Note that the BMG tables aren’t up yet, hence I don’t know the level of support for the Greens or their fieldwork dates. These polls continue to show the boost in Conservative party support following Boris Johnson’s accession filtering though. It is the first “Post-Johnson” poll for BMG and Survation, and they show the Conservatives up by 3 and 5 points respectively. We’re now at a point where the most recent polls from all the regular polling companies show the Conservatives back ahead, though the size of their lead differs given the variation in figures between pollsters.

Normally I would be speculating about how long the government’s honeymoon boost would last. It’s not really the case here given how many political events are going to be crammed into the next few months. Events will likely preempt its natural unwinding: whatever diplomatic negotiations or stand offs occur between the government and the EU (starting with the G7 meeting this week), whatever Parliamentary moves there may be against the government or against No Deal, the party conferences, whatever preparations or announcements there may be on No Deal and, of course, the actual outcome at the end of October. The current levels of party support seem rather irrelevant in the face of that – the Conservatives are probably happy to have a lead at the moment, but there are ten weeks ahead of us that are packed with events that can throw everything up in the air.


1,511 Responses to “Voting Intention Update”

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  1. Peter W

    Maybe try again? I couldn’t quite follow your correction of autocorrect!

  2. Pete 20-30 my estimate

  3. Amelia Gentleman in the Guardian is beginning to write on the EU Settlement Scheme as she did on the Windrush Scandal:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/eu-citizens-uk-settled-status-alarm

    She is also the sister in law of the UK Prime Minister.

  4. Sorry all – some really bad economic news I have to break. Why is it always down to me?

    The @Trevors are back, which implies a further collapse of investment. Trouble ahead.

    If you recall, they had to vacate UKPR because of a bit of a panic at work, after Johnson’s no deal mantra had created sufficient certainty for increased investment to commence. So many projects to do, so little time to post.

    Now, just when you thought the economy was safe – they’re back. Oh dear…..

    @David Carrod – please – can we try to see that there is another side? Millar was previously successful in her legal challenge, which means she was right and the government and those attacking here were wrong. This is what the British constitution says, so you will agree with that, I’m sure.

    Perhaps she will be right again this time – perhaps not, but whatever, if being British means anything, it must mean allowing people to have a different view, and allowing them access to legal action to test this view.

    On Johnson: He is clearly trying to avoid the fate of the last election, when Tory plans to focus on Brexit were completely derailed by Labour’s attacks on domestic policy.

    Is he believable? Seemingly so, and he is a good campaigner, unlike May. He is taking a leaf from the Trump playbook, which is to say anything in determined but vague fashion and keep repeating it until enough of his worshippers think it’s true.

    So, for example, it’s the rebels who are threatening a no deal by trying to block a no deal. Total alice in wonderland bullsh!te, but there are enough stupid people out there who believe.

    We know the idea that rebel threats will derail negotiations is total @rsewipe nonsense, because Johnson isn’t negotiating. He told us so. The backstop hasn’t been scrapped, so how could he possibly be negotiating? So there are no negotiations to derail.

    Unless you think he was telling porkies?

  5. What I still find surprising is that no BBC interviewer ever challenges Johnson`s claim that the prominent strength of opponents of No-deal make the EU leaders and negotiators less likely to help him secure a deal.

    Showing that many people in the UK want a compromise and a soft Brexit would surely incline the EU leaders/negotiators to help deliver it. They are genuinely nice people, not the nasty crew that Johnson wants to convince UK voters about.

  6. Interesting to read about the culture of fear inside Whitehall now. Not a very intelligent way to run things, and ultimately will be counter productive.

    A government with a rupture between No 10 and No 11 has serious problems, and this administration is breaking all records for losing people quickly. Given the telescoping of events, and the over arching influence of Brexit, it remains possible that this administration will survive and thrive in the forthcoming GE, but the time will come when this method of internal management blows up spectacularly, and the lack of proper management will drive them onto the rocks.

    The only real question is how much damage will they inflict before this happens.

  7. Gordon Brown still serves a useful purpose – as a messenger boy who can make suggestions about things he is in no position to deliver.

    So, when “the former Prime Minister said he had been told by European leaders that they were prepared to scrap the 31 October cut-off.”

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/gordon-brown/news/106177/gordon-brown-eu-ready-offer-uk

    he may be a useful conduit for people who are actually important. Since Brown isn’t, anything he reports others as saying is wholly deniable, indeed ridiculed as the fancies of a rather deluded has-been.

    Such a go-between could be very useful to the EU. In the usual arrogant way of the UK, the assumption here has been that the initiative lies with the UK, and it is they who must initiate an extension request, and those foreigners who would have to agree or not..

    Of course, the EU could equally offer such an extension, and the UK only have to agree. It would be unwise for the EU to do so before testing the water, but given the situation in Parliament, it might be a very useful strategy for any successor to Johnson not to have to initiate the extension, but merely to take advantage of those weaklings, and use the delay for purely British ends.

    I suspect we are at a stage where the squabbling children at Westminster are largely concerned with saving face, and if the grown-ups offer them ice cream and jelly, they can pretend that there are no faces to save, and they can save the flinging of faeces till later.

  8. Is Brown trying to style himself as some latter day Kissinger?

    I doubt he’s even an Alexander Haig.

  9. “What I still find surprising is that no BBC interviewer ever challenges Johnson`s claim…”

    ——–

    Well Andrew Neil has his own show starting soon so you never know.

  10. Statgeek

    He did save the world! :-) His pretensions would make him the ideal messenger boy.

  11. @ ON

    “Of course, the EU could equally offer such an extension, and the UK only have to agree.”

    I think I said a little while ago that it’s surely a no-brainer for the EU to offer an extension if (for example) October 31st occurred during an election campaign. Other situations also possible – eg parliament actually look like they might, once and for all, decide what they actually want, or more likely, there’s a VoNC just before Halloween.

    I didn’t expect the possibility to be aired so soon, but again I suppose the suspension of parliament has sharpened minds a little.

    But what’s not so obvious is whether Johnson would accept that offer. That, I think, would be a pivotal moment in his life and the future of the country. Probably just the sort of thing he’s dreamed of, but I have no idea which way he’d go.

  12. Loving the Number 10 and 11 war.

  13. “That, I think, would be a pivotal moment in his life and the future… but I have no idea which way he’d go.”

    The image of Tom Baker in Genesis of the Daleks sprung to mind as I wrote that.

  14. ALEC: “@David Carrod – please – can we try to see that there is another side? Millar was previously successful in her legal challenge, which means she was right and the government and those attacking here were wrong. This is what the British constitution says, so you will agree with that, I’m sure.”

    Yes, she was right that Theresa May couldn’t just invoke Article 50 by Royal Prerogative, a vote had to be taken in Parliament.

    Which it was, and was carried by a large majority. So Art. 50 was then invoked.

    All a colossal waste of time to get to the same outcome via a circuitous route.

  15. @David Carrod

    “All a colossal waste of time to get to the same outcome via a circuitous route.”

    We must not chastise the efforts of Ms Miller to clarify the democratic process.

    I believe her action over Article 50 was worthwhile, and ironically, her new action is trying to intervene in a direct consequence of the Parliamentary decision to activate Article 50.

  16. Davwel
    “…incline the EU leaders/negotiators to help deliver it. They are genuinely nice people,…”

    I don’t know them personally as you obviously do, but I’m sure that they will only be interested in getting the best possible deal for the EU, which by definition will be the worst deal for us (for the fractious Scots, ‘us’ means the UK as a whole).
    ———————————

    I may have missed it as I don’t read every post especially when there has been a flurry, but I haven’t seen any comments about John Major joining in with Gina Miller’s legal case. Surely this must be unprecedented? A former PM bringing a legal case against the current PM of their own party! Also, I have never known such a plethora of legal cases to do with political matters. It seems that Remainers are learning the practices of the USA which most of them seem to loathe for some reason.

  17. I think Gina Miller has been the most effective of all Remainers. Without her court case Brexit would have been a done deal by now because there would never have been a ‘meaningful vote’.
    I also think she’s fair game for criticism and that taking such offense that you call for people to stop posting is pretty silly.

    Her father was attorney general of Guyana and a member of the Marxist PPP Party which contributed greatly to the destruction of that country (and confiscated my brother-in-law’s family home in Georgetown without compensation. They left with a few diamonds stuffed up their derrieres and didn’t go back for twenty years or so, the house was destroyed.)

    Traditionally PPP got the Indian vote and PKK (Burnham) got the black vote. Politically Guyana has always been a very segregated country.

    Brexit aside, part of me hopes she turns out to be less ‘successful’ than her father – or redirects her desire to do good towards the country of her birth perhaps. (Things are looking up in Guyana).
    Like all good overachieving Marxists I believe the family are quite wealthy, so I doubt the costs of this new case will trouble her too much.

  18. TRIGGUY
    Who in the EU offers the extension? The lame duck executive that gets replaced one day later (Nov 1st)?
    (The new European Parliament also returns on brexit day +1)

    The extension date of October 31st was no accident. It was timed to shut down the negotiations (or to leave it all up to the technocrats) and Westminster isn’t the only parliament being kept out of the debate. Junkers role now is ‘caretaker’ (irony alert).

    I’m AMAZED that Johnson et al haven’t pointed this out. It makes me think they’re not too smart.

  19. Alec,
    “On Johnson: He is clearly trying to avoid the fate of the last election, when Tory plans to focus on Brexit were completely derailed by Labour’s attacks on domestic policy. ”

    Really? Yes, he might indeed be trying to spread some largess, But did labour do so well because of their own policy of largess, or because they did not support leave?

    Had con and lab had identical policies except on Brexit, would the result have been different?

    “Is he believable?”

    I honestly dont know. To me he isnt. Eight years of austerity and then, magically, there is money for everything. It is not credible. But I am certainly not a typical voter. Is he perhaps already doing what I constantly suggest, offering something so unbelievable that the aim is to be disbelieved? If JC gets up and says just that, wont BJ be called out as unbelievable?

    “A government with a rupture between No 10 and No 11 has serious problems, and this administration is breaking all records for losing people quickly.”

    Occurred to me that the moment the chancellor was supposed to announce to the house his new budget would be just the right moment to announce instead his resignation.

    David Carrod,
    “Yes, she was right that Theresa May couldn’t just invoke Article 50 by Royal Prerogative, a vote had to be taken in Parliament. Which it was, and was carried by a large majority.”

    Correct me anyone if I am wrong, but didnt parliament merely pass a law granting the power to the PM to give notice. They did not vote to instruct her to do so, she did that all by herself? Did she constitutionally have the authority to do so?

  20. David Colby

    “I’m AMAZED that Johnson et al haven’t pointed this out.”

    It would be surprising if the UK PM pointed anything out about an extension offer that hasn’t been made.

    Didn’t you read the reports of Brown’s comments?

    Anyone suggesting that HMG should openly respond to the witterings of an ex-PM is probably considerably less smart than Johnson et al.

    They may not be very politically astute, but they’re not THAT dumb!

  21. @TONY DEAN

    “Despite my anger at HM The Queen not calling for a full meeting of the Privy Council which she could lawfully have asked for to hear their advice in addition to the recommendation of the PM, on reflection I now regret my out of character republican outburst. Rather than overthrowing the Constitutional Monarchy a simple change to Royal Prerogative would suffice to restore parliamentary democracy. Namely that HM The Queen uses her Prerogative on the advice of The Speaker as the voice of The Commons rather than that of the Executive in the shape of the PM. This would be a non-partisan way of preventing these sort of shenanigans by either side. The Bundestag works in this way visa vis The President and the Bundestag – The German Chancellor does not have these powers that are open to abuse in the manner in which a British PM can use them in a partisan advantageous way.”

    So that you can ignore the national referendum result?

  22. Johnson isn’t going to accept an extension! Jesus Christ. He will be annihilated by BXP if he does.

    I think he is committed to a no-deal and the EU will cave at the last moment.

  23. @DAVWEL

    “Showing that many people in the UK want a compromise and a soft Brexit would surely incline the EU leaders/negotiators to help deliver it. They are genuinely nice people, not the nasty crew that Johnson wants to convince UK voters about.”

    The only people who want a soft Brexit are Remainers who know a soft Brexit is no different to remaining!

  24. So if the EU revokes the Oct 31st dateline that means Johnson has to choose to take us out (pretty obvious he”s not looking for a deal)?

    That’ll shoot Cummings fox. It’s almost as if they’ve got some smarts among the EU leadership.

    Still, as a remainer I think it’s time to leave.
    Let’s become the 51st state of America and take on their health insurance and sh*t food.

  25. If the EU extends the Oct 31st deadline, that means Johnson has to choose to take us out on the 31st and it’s his choice and not been forced on us by the EU.

    That shoots Cummings fox.

    It’s almost as if there’s some smarts in the EU.

  26. BRXT. Regarding ‘only remainers want a soft brexit”. This is a polling site, polls do not agree with you. If youre not going to take notice or believe these polls why are you here?

  27. Brxt,
    “Johnson isn’t going to accept an extension! Jesus Christ. He will be annihilated by BXP if he does.”

    Ah, but its pretty clear both con and BxP will be anihilated if he doesnt. The backlash after no deal crash will be bad.

    “I think he is committed to a no-deal and the EU will cave at the last moment.”

    Ah, but why? Could you explain what advantage there is for them in ‘caving’ at all? I mean, it seems to me likely that the best outcome from Brexit for ireland would be a UK no deal.

    Yes, there will be short term problems, especially in farming. But longer term there is the likelihood of reunification, which used to be part of the Irish constitution, and every prospect for companies moving from the Uk to the EU to settle in Ireland (as they are already doing). So logically Ireland would veto a special deal. No deal could make it very rich.

    Similar issues seem to apply to other countries. Tariff restrictions on Uk goods entering the EU seem likely to be bigger than those on EU goods entering the UK, so frankly the short term hit for most EU countries will be negligible. For the rest, they too have every prospect of restoring the situation in a few years. There is every prospect the Uk will accept the EU deal or rejoin quite quickly even if no deal happens.

    In order of preference, I would put the EU’s preferred options as UK stays in, UK leaves no deal, Uk leaves with deal. Hard to say which is better for them, deal or no deal, but in the end these two will probably amount to the same thing. No deal will certainly mean more pain along the way for the UK. But either way, the EU would be worse off breaking their own rules and making special concessions to the UK.

    “The only people who want a soft Brexit are Remainers who know a soft Brexit is no different to remaining!”

    Soft brexit is rather worse for the UK than remaining a member. It is vassal status, as leave put it. But that is certainly better than bankruptcy. This seems to be the calculation which the conservatives under May made. Only after it became clear conservative voters want the bankruptcy option did they switch leaders to BJ. I dont believe they have switched policies.

    Pete,
    “BRXT. Regarding ‘only remainers want a soft brexit”. This is a polling site, polls do not agree with you.”

    Latest yougov, 8% leavers suport May outcome and 6% of remainers. 14% of remainers want an alternative deal including the single market, and 16% of leavers.

  28. OLDNAT
    The point I was trying to make was that Johnson et al could have pointed out that the EU parliament is currently shut down and will remain shut until the day after brexit – and the EU is currently in the hands of a caretaker executive which will be retired on november 1st, that October 31st was not just pulled out of a hat. Seen in this light, shutting Westminster down for only part of this time is not as drastic as some (including caretaker guy verhofstadt) have posited.
    I’m not saying I agree – just that it is an open goal that they’ve missed.

  29. @ DAVYWEL

    “They (the EU leaders) are genuinely nice people, not the nasty crew that Johnson wants to convince UK voters about.”

    They (the EU) are a like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and realise that the EU would be better of without perfidious Albion, but are reluctant to call a spade a spade in public.

    Their philosophy can be summed up in a revised text for the EU anthem (Ode to Joy). with the first verse as follows:

    Europa, Europa über alles, Über alles in der Welt,
    Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze Brüderlich zusammenhält.
    Von das Mittelmeer bis an die Nordsee, Von Brest bis an Brest-Litowsk,
    Europa, Europa über alles, Über alles in der Welt!

    Translated as:
    Europe, Europe above all, Above all in the world,
    When, for protection and defense, It always stands brotherly together.
    From the Mediterranean to the North Sea, From Brest to Brest-Litewsk,
    Europe, Europe above all, Above all in the world!

    When push comes to shove, the EU will try to shaft the UK. While it is reasonable for the UK to continue to negotiate in good faith for the next 2 months, no deal is better than a bad deal. There comes a point when enough is enough, and kicking the issue into the long grass is no solution; that point is Halloween. I don’t like or trust BoJo, but hopefully he will stick to his guns on this occasion.

  30. Sajid Javid on R4 now saying proroguing parliament is perfectly fine and claiming when he said a few weeks ago it was not, he didnt mean this current situation.

    Dunham11,
    “When push comes to shove, the EU will try to shaft the UK”

    The job of the EU is to get everything it can for members at the expense of non members. That should be obvious, and really is its raison d’etre. It isnt surprising therefore if it does this in dealings with any external country..such as the Uk has applied to be.

    Its out choice to place ourselves outside this safety net. (well, strictly, about 1/4 of the nation asked for it)

  31. @ PETE

    “BRXT. Regarding ‘only remainers want a soft brexit”. This is a polling site, polls do not agree with you. If youre not going to take notice or believe these polls why are you here?”

    ——

    You don’t have to believe that polls are inevitably correct to take an interest in how they wind up being out, what the impact of that might be, what might be done about it etc.

  32. Surely the timing of any EU offer to extend the leaving date is entirely deliberate? If true it gives the anti no-Deal camp (they are not all Remainers) the strongest possible incentive to legislate to ban leaving without a Deal as they know they would have a warm reception in the EU.

    The next stage of the debate would then cover whether Parliament could really mandate the PM and I’m sure the Govnt would seek new legal advice and we could end up back in court etc.

    So this offer, if true, may not ultimately be decisive but the timing makes a lot of sense

  33. “I think he is committed to a no-deal and the EU will cave at the last moment.”

    One to cut out and keep. We’ll see.

    I think it has been pretty obvious for a considerable period of time that the EU will be keen to show publicly that they are willing to offer more time. They have nothing to lose (and quite a lot to gain – the longer we stay, the more of that £39bn we pay).

    The obvious gambit for the EU is therefore to make it clear that the 31st is the UK’s choice. They could do this by either saying that hard negotiations are taking place but need more time, or that they feel the UK should have more time to work out what it wants, especially after the parliamentary suspension.

    Johnson is greatly assisting them with the former option. If he really had held to his promise not to talk unless the backstop was scrapped, the EU would be in a bind. Offering more time for talks that aren’t happening because you reject the pre-conditions looks weak. But Johnson is now clear that talks are happening, and every effort is being made to secure a deal. Against that backdrop, more time is advantageous to both sides, and rejection of such an offer looks a bit stupid.

    This is the problem with ly!ng. If you change tack from one day to the next, it becomes hard to craft a solid message that makes sense.

  34. ” I don’t like or trust BoJo, but hopefully he will stick to his guns on this occasion.”

    Well he’s gone back on his word already by entering negotiations, but certainly, stranger things have happened than Johnson turning out not to be a l!ar.

  35. Hearing reports of sectarian violence in the west of Scotland yesterday.
    This has long been a stain on Scotland and, for all the talk of progressive tolerant politics north of the border, hangs like a black cloud over North Britain.
    Time for all decent Britons to work together to eliminate it, as the Scots Government clearly needs help here.

  36. @ Alec

    ” If he really had held to his promise not to talk unless the backstop was scrapped, the EU would be in a bind. ”

    The EU told Johnson clearly that he had 30 days to come up with an alternative – that was practical – to the backstop.

    “This is the problem with ly!ng. If you change tack from one day to the next, it becomes hard to craft a solid message that makes sense.”

    It’s hardly lying is it? He has been reasonably consistent. If MPs are honest, then there is a majority in Parliament for the May WA minus the backstop. Personally I think many of those MPs will try a wriggle off the hook if it becomes a reality, but we shall see.

  37. FT politics podcast surprised me by being unanimous that:
    –parliament will block no deal next week.
    –if johnson fails to get/pass a deal in parliament, there will be a VONC and caretaker alternative government.

    Of course, as Stephen Bush on newsnight said this week, every prediction like that is actually unlikely, just that it is “most” likely.

  38. @JiB
    When you say that there was a majority for the May deal without backstop, you are ignoring the reality that there were 180 votes for that deal that were payroll votes of government (and therefore obliged to vote ‘Aye’), at least 30 of which are no longer on the payroll having been ejected from government because they were not Brexity enough.

    So that number of May-deal votes may diminish as moderate Tories have been freed from their payroll shackles… especially if it is brought to the table by a man some of them appear to loathe!

  39. ‘only Remainers want a soft Brexit’.

    Mmmmm

    So all those that voted Leave in the Ref. wanted No Deal? Any that actually thought they were voting for a Soft Brexit were actually voting incorrectly and should have voted Remain.

    I wonder what that would’ve done to the result?

  40. OLDNAT

    One last go.

    The Lib Dem Leader might be right that there are some in the ranks of her and other minor opposition parties [1] no party, and amongst the potential rebel Tories (if there really are any, not holding my breath) who for reasons of party or personal politics would never support a VoNC whose effect might be to make the LOTO Prime Minister.

    What advocates of “someone else” never address though is that there will be some on the Labour benches who would out of party loyalty support a process in the name of the LOTO but would not feel so bound to support someone else.

    And since the set of Labour MPs is around ten times the size of the set of LibDem/ other/ none/ Tory rebels, the “some” of that group who follow personal or party politics in the “someone else” scenario is likely to exceed the “some” of the small group who would switch the other way.

    At least the 20 or 30 JimJam suggests I think. Possibly more. Especially where the sole purpose of supporting someone else was to do something they didn’t support either. Why would any Labour MP who is either a believing leaver (and there’s more of those than have rebelled so far) or even a reluctant compromise leaver of the Kinnock/ Flint camp be expected to support a new Conservative PM whose sole purpose in office was to stop us leaving?

    So I think the “someone else” strategy loses more votes for reasons of personal or party politics and is even less likely to succeed.

    Particularly now it’s been personalised so publicly by Ms Swinson and so is far more likely to engender a partisan reaction.

    [1] I’m excluding Lab, SNP and for obvious but different reasons DUP from this group.

  41. @leftieliberal

    “Looking at it cynically, Corbyn’s best chance of becoming PM is at a GE following a disastrous no-deal Brexit which he can pin on the Tories alone. No doubt Seumas Milne has thought it through and advised him ”

    Is it? I’d think it’s the opposite, he has more chance winning before brexit as fptp will force remain supporters to lend him their vote again.

  42. @James B

    “Is it? I’d think it’s the opposite, he has more chance winning before brexit as fptp will force remain supporters to lend him their vote again”

    Really? I don’t expect Labour to be able to offer any coherent Brexit position anytime soon.

  43. dunham111: Their philosophy can be summed up in a revised text for the EU anthem (Ode to Joy). with the first verse as follows:

    Europa, Europa über alles, Über alles in der Welt,
    Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze Brüderlich zusammenhält.
    Von das Mittelmeer bis an die Nordsee, Von Brest bis an Brest-Litowsk,
    Europa, Europa über alles, Über alles in der Welt!

    I diagnose brain rot. Probable cause reading the Sun and war comics back to back.

  44. @JIB

    “It’s hardly lying is it? He has been reasonably consistent. If MPs are honest, then there is a majority in Parliament for the May WA minus the backstop. Personally I think many of those MPs will try a wriggle off the hook if it becomes a reality, but we shall see.”

    I guess that he could say that what is going on is talks about whether a way can be found to get over the backstop problem and restart negotiations. That said, there is practically no time for negotiations and the claim that the chance of no deal is a million to one against is extraordinary.

    My assumption is that he is hoping for some fig leaf which will allow him to present May’s deal as if it was not May’s deal. If he can manage that parliament will vote for it in desperation. If he can’t manage that he will claim that the EU have been unbelievably intransigent, crash out and aim to win an election in the guise of a latter day Churchill

  45. The Mail carrying a story that BoJo has made it clear that he considers any vote next week as an equivalent of a VONC and any Tory MP’s not supporting said vote won’t be allowed to stand in the next GE.

  46. @BFR

    A valid point that you made in response to Jones in Bangor, but I still think he is right.

    If Boris achieves a last minute concession from the EU, regarding the backstop, then the WA will probably be passed. That concession will probably be the introduction of a time limit: a backstop for the backstop.

    This is what I think will happen, much to the annoyance of the Spartans.

    Boris will be able to sell it on the basis that his negotiations of the trade deal will be a lot less EU-friendly than would have happened under TM.

    I suspect that this has been his strategy from the outset.

  47. @ TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER

    I am merely agreeing with the esteemed political commentator Peter Hitchens, who stated in 2015 that “The EU is the Continuation of Germany By Other Means”.

    He is not deranged.

  48. @jib

    “Really? I don’t expect Labour to be able to offer any coherent Brexit position anytime soon.”

    They didn’t have one last time, that’s fptp for you.

  49. @Dunham111

    “He is not deranged.”

    I beg to differ.

  50. I was reminded of the films I saw and books I read as a youngster about the jovial and ineffectual Caliph and his evil but very effective Grand Vizir when I read this article:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking

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