A very quick update on voting intention polls over the last few weeks. As usual August is a relatively quiet period – opinion pollsters have holidays too. The fact that we have a new Prime Minister hasn’t made much change to that. In August so far we’ve had five voting intention polls:

BMG/Independent (Dates TBC) – CON 31%, LAB 25%, LDEM 19%, BREX 12%, GRN ?
ComRes/Telegraph (11th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 27%, LDEM 16%, BREX 16%, GRN 4% (tabs)
Survation (11th Aug) – CON 28%, LAB 24%, LDEM 21%, BREX 15%, GRN 3% (tabs)
Opinium/Observer (9th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, BREX 16%, GRN 5% (tabs)
YouGov/Times (6th Aug) – CON 31%, LAB 22%, LDEM 21%, BREX 14%, GRN 7% (tabs)

Note that the BMG tables aren’t up yet, hence I don’t know the level of support for the Greens or their fieldwork dates. These polls continue to show the boost in Conservative party support following Boris Johnson’s accession filtering though. It is the first “Post-Johnson” poll for BMG and Survation, and they show the Conservatives up by 3 and 5 points respectively. We’re now at a point where the most recent polls from all the regular polling companies show the Conservatives back ahead, though the size of their lead differs given the variation in figures between pollsters.

Normally I would be speculating about how long the government’s honeymoon boost would last. It’s not really the case here given how many political events are going to be crammed into the next few months. Events will likely preempt its natural unwinding: whatever diplomatic negotiations or stand offs occur between the government and the EU (starting with the G7 meeting this week), whatever Parliamentary moves there may be against the government or against No Deal, the party conferences, whatever preparations or announcements there may be on No Deal and, of course, the actual outcome at the end of October. The current levels of party support seem rather irrelevant in the face of that – the Conservatives are probably happy to have a lead at the moment, but there are ten weeks ahead of us that are packed with events that can throw everything up in the air.


1,511 Responses to “Voting Intention Update”

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  1. MBruno,

    Indeed: a simple legislative fix would be to require any order to prorogue Parliament to be approved by a vote in the Commons before the date that it takes effect.

    That could apply to the current order even, as long as the law is enacted before the 9th.

  2. “If MPs don’t want the Queen in the future to prorogue Parliament on the PM’s advice, it suffices to pass legislation taking away her prorogation powers.”

    Indeed. If they had done this three months ago when it became apparent that the new PM wasn’t ruling out doing so, they could have done precisely that.

    The horse gave them three months notice it was thinking of bolting. They still didn’t shut the stable door.

  3. @VALERIE

    “DAVID CARROD
    Please take your nasty comments elsewhere. They are not welcome here. ”

    Presumably you mean not welcome as in you don’t agree with them. But at least one other poster endorsed my comment.

    Of course, none of the Labour-voting, Remain-supporting majority of posters on UKPR ever say anything nasty about anyone …

  4. Courtesy of the Guardian

    How Tory MPs used to oppose the prorogation of Parliament and what they say now.

    https://youtu.be/DksT1UDzTtY

  5. Barbazenzero: The real problem for Johnson is that a no deal departure will not be welcomed by most who were conned by leave campaign promises.

    Perhaps actually letting it happen would be best as it would kill both the Cons and the Brexit Party Limited stone dead.

    We also know that the Cons have provided no details of how to avoid a hard border, which will guarantee no US trade deal.

    Perhaps letting it happen is the only way to draw the venom of the gutter press, if the HoC deliver a no confidence vote a month or two into the disaster.

    Talking with Mrs October this morning, we concluded that brexit was an end in itself. There are people out there who say “Holes in the Road? We should leave the EU” and after we do leave they will say “Holes in the Road? that’s a small price to pay for leaving the EU”. And we fear that there are too many people who think that way.

    We tend to agree with the people here who have suggested that the opposition should let the government do what it will. Our plan for Parliament would be not to attempt to stop brexit, but for a non-binding motion to be put stating simply “This House believes that No Deal brexit would be a bl00dy stupid idea and counsels the Government not to follow that course”. Possibly such a non binding motion would more easily attract rebel tories and also even the headbanger ERG tendency might just stay away from the vote.

    This would set the scene nicely for a VoNC several months later.

  6. @ PETERW – “..the fundamental pillar of our system is that the PM acts with the confidence of the House”

    In a nutshell indeed.

    It was and still is as simple and obvious as that and LOTO has the ability to act on that next week. Swinson appeared to understand the position of LOTO before the Summer recess but appears to be more interested in party politics than actually stopping Brexit.

    The only additional point being simply stopping the current PM (ie Boris losing a VoNC) won’t by itself be enough to stop Brexit before 31Oct – as “No WA” is the default.

    A new PM will need be required as PM needs to write a letter to Tusk (either unilateral Revoke or request for a 3rd extension, which requires unanimous consent EU27+UK)

    K.Clarke has said he’d back Corbyn so Swinson needs to drop her petulant school girl act and back Corbyn or face the electorate to explain why she didn’t do everything she could to “Stop Brexit” (her raison d’etre)

    I doubt the numbers would be there (explained multiple times with lists on names before Summer) but it will be close and options narrow significantly if she/others don’t take next week’s window of opportunity (again explained multiple times before Summer)

    PS If MPs think they can force Boris to write a letter against his will (eg via Cooper-Letwin2) then reread the above and don’t waste next week chasing dead ends or relying on outcomes of weak legal challenges (Tusk did tell MPs not to waste the 2nd extension)

    PPS I’m all set for the “Betrayal GE” before Leave folks think I’ve been hacked. Above is all very widely known anyway. I am beginning to doubt MPs have the gumption to “Stop Brexit” and just want to be sure no one on UKPR tries to hide behind the excuse of Boris proroguing parliament (although for the record I think that was an unnecessary and risky move – more about Boris’s ego wanting hero welcome at CON conf than smart tactics IMHO)

  7. Estimate of numbers of MPs for various options.

    https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1167112821223698432/photo/1

    If Labour were prepared to back an option for a compromise leader of a GNU how would the numbers change?

  8. “I’m with carfrew on this – 1997 to 2008”

    ——-

    Yes it went downhill a little in June 2007

  9. DAVID CARROD
    I think your comments about Gina Miller are unpleasant and misogynistic. She is a campaigner, not a politician, and has received death threats since coming into the public eye .

    I own up .The other day I described Boris Johnson as ‘an overgrown schoolboy who had eaten too much tuck’. I was prompted to do so by the picture of him sitting on a sofa in the Elysee palace with his feet on the coffee table.

  10. Also note Soubry was at the Tues meeting. Clearly she knows she will lose her seat, or have to beg to join LDEM (and likely still lose her seat) if/when Corbyn gets a 3rd extension in order to hold a GE.

    Bit of a conflict of interests for Soubs so bad idea to involve or rely on her.

    Better to look to the growing list of CON MPs who won’t be standing in next GE and “happy” to retire or move on. Harrington latest to join that list, for more names see link below (but ignore the “logic” in the article as seems to miss the timing issues).

    Also certainly don’t rely on Hammond, Gauke, Stewart+co. They think they’ll have a “2nd coming” recreating the Old Tory party once Boris has blown up the New Tory party and no way will they risk their future careers to Stop Brexit (or pay any attention to the CON x-break in polling)

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/richard-harringtons-retirement-double-whammy-chances-no-deal

    PS ‘Spoiler Alert’. My guess is if CON-Remain MPs don’t “get the message” about needing to back Corbyn as PM and only try legislation route then Boris will exercise the whip (and removal of it) far more ruthlessly than May – the article does kinda cover the reasons for that but as mentioned you’ll have to sort of the timing issues. Boris has a working majority of 1 so a few rebels who were going to retire anyway lose the whip and that becomes a -ve. Tick tock…

  11. It’s interesting , isn’t it?

    Anyways, here is a link to a graph of signatories of the recent petition against the closing down of Parliament.

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=12vxxUEzx4MJ4KKoRyB9wAfGhwvpC7VrA

    It plot the proportion who have signed (people signed divided by constituency size) vs the percentage Remain vote in 2016.

    Protest and marches are every bit a part of our democracy, and I will proudly be there tomorrow with my daughter.

  12. @ DAVID CARROD – Going on “results” then Gina Miller has done more to help “Leave” than most MPs. Big fan myself!

    Exception on MP side being Grieve – his intervention to secure the Meaningful Vote (S13 of EU WA) saved us from May’s “deal” (which of course isn’t a deal and is certainly not Leave in anything but name). Phew!! Again, big fan on his “results”, although it’s almost time to say goodbye to him as an MP.

    If Miller starts to get low on cash, she’ll find crowd fund mugs to stump up – quite the scam her and her lawyer friends have going there!

    Of course she could always sell her Audi R8 and buy a bike – doing the Planet a favour at the same time.

    ;)

  13. @ CHARLES – 61 against Corbyn as PM is largely due to Swinson and Soubs lot, although still tough to see it get win they have to at least try.

    The answer to your “compromise leader of a GNU” is shown as 293 against but if folks think Corbyn is going to whip his MPs to back anyone other than him then fine by me ;)

  14. @valerie

    I wonder what it is about a successful, assertive, black woman that @davidcarrod finds “odious”?

  15. Trevor,

    Even with a Lab whip 20-30 Lab MPs from the delivery/calculating part of the PLP would not support anyone other than Corbyn as leader of a caretaker administration (NOT a GNU that is way to grandiose).

    They would out of party loyalty put JC in No 10 (even if for a few weeks)n despite their Brexit positions and frankly to do otherwise would end their membership of the party.

    Whilst we know Soubrey and her chums may well use as an excuse to put keeping their own seats for another 2.5 years ahead of stopping a no deal Brexit; and, that having Corbyn as temporary PM will genuinely put off some Tory MPs, there is no other choice to maximise votes for an alternative ephemeral (nay evanescent) Government.

    I did not know about Letwin, so we could be up to 6 with Clarke, Harrington, Grieve, Bebb and Gyimah (who might as well as he will get deselected now anyhow). There will be a couple of others who would rather not but might if they have to. (Elwood, Sandbach perhaps and a couple of scots fearful for the Union).

  16. @ Charles

    I’m glad someone has made a stab at the parliamentary maths. Unfortunately I think their estimates are way off:

    – 20 Tory MPs will not support a VONC
    – Lib Dem MPs I think will back Corbyn because they have to do this politically to avoid losing all their Labour support and also to be seen to be doing everything to stop Brexit.
    – I don’t think there would be anywhere near 80 Lab MPs voting against an alternative leader if it had Labour support- possible if parliament was in anarchy.
    – ChangeUk and independents will be an interesting one. It’s hard to put much pressure on them in the same way as Lib Dems have to respond to that pressure but they risk loosing all credibility on their remain credentials if they don’t put Corbyn in as last resort.

    Despite all those doubts about the estimates I still think it shows that there is little chance of getting an alternative PM to Corbyn. This is simply because Labour leave MPs do not have the same pressure of de-selection etc as they would do failing to back their own leader and there are at least a few who don’t want that option.

  17. @ TW

    “if folks think Corbyn is going to whip his MPs to back anyone other than him then fine by me ;)”

    Not impossible at 11th hour given the right circumstances. There’s some mileage in no deal staring everyone in the face and then him being the one to compromise while others were playing politics.

    Unfortunately it won’t work because of what both me and Jim Jam feel is likely to happen with Labour leave MPs under a simple party whip unless it is their own leader.

    Also there probably isn’t a date where no deal deadline to act becomes apparent- 31st October, 14th October or 3rd September? Personally I think it is 3rd September but as you joyfully point out on numerous occasions remain cannot get its act together anything like that quickly.

  18. TECHNICOLOUROCTOBER @ BZ

    I’d certainly go long with that, including your suggested motion.

  19. @MBruno: ‘In fact , Parliament recently stripped the Queen of her prerogative to dissolve Parliament when it passed the FTPA’

    … or did Parliament strip the Queen of her prerogative to dissolve Parliament when it passed the Statute Law (Repeals) Act 1969, then partly restore those powers when it passed the FTPA?

    (Of course, that assessment of the situation would raise certain questions about the general elections of 1970, 1974 (both times), 1979, 1983, 1987, 2001, and 2005 – but not 1992, 1997, or 2010, since those dissolutions were automatic under the Septennial Act as amended.)

  20. Valerie,
    “If our democracy is being debased and is in decline then, at some point, it must have been purer. When exactly was the pinnacle for our democracy institutions”

    I would suggest post WW2. Governments were very keen to keep happy the electorate who had just suffered two world wars, and who would have had far more training as soldiers and weaponry available to them than now. This might not be unrelated to why the US constitution included the right to bear arms. Designed to make sure politicians listened?

    Statgeek,
    “Like it or not, the monarchy is going to have less supporters after this”

    Yes. I think BJ has just turned me into a republican. Tony Ben would have been amused.

    Technicolour October,
    “If we had a President who would have stopped Johnson,..”

    Although the truth is, the government has no business having any control over the times parliament can sit. That should be entirely for parliament to decide. Its another example of the Uk being the prototype parliament. Lots of bugs need correcting.

    CIM,
    “But if democratic decisions required 50% of the total – as opposed to voting – electorate to be in favour to be considered valid, we would probably require Australian-style compulsory voting to get any valid votes at all.”

    And that would be bad because? Most of what parliament does is timewasting. As we have seen in the last couple of years when it has done nothing but Brexit.

    ” Lacking any public interest in the result one way or the other, the government could justifiably have done what it liked based on a result like that.”

    Yet that is really what happened, something like 1/4 of the population bothering to register and vote for leaving, it had no real mandate at all. Yet the government persists in claiming it is decisive.

    ” but provided that the country retains a democratic framework in which people *could* vote if things went against them, this will generally happen through that framework, rather than by a revolution against it.”

    Yet here we are…government refusing a second referendum after a first with only 1/4 support, while the result has proved incapable of implementation. Yet they persist.

    ” A lot of the point of democracy is to formalise the process of revolution sufficiently that hardly anyone dies as an immediate result of the handover of power …”

    But the conservatives have chosen to break the rules (inadequate as they are anyway).

  21. New laptop causing lots of fun…………..not!

    A few more Yougov / Mori poll results:

    Is Boris Johnson doing well or badly as PM?
    38% Well
    44% Badly
    Net -6%

    Is Jeremy Corbyn doing well or badly?
    13% Well
    72% Badly
    Net -59%

    Source: @YouGov

    “Do you think the Government is right or wrong to stop Parliament from sitting at this time?”

    Right: 30%
    Wrong: 46%

    via @IpsosMORI, 28 – 29 Aug

    Britain Elects
    ? @britainelects

    On the House of Commons voting down the Conservative government and replacing it with a cross-party government that would seek to delay Brexit for long enough to have a fresh general election:

    Support: 41%
    Oppose: 43%

    via @YouGov
    6:39 am – 30 Aug 2019

    Britain Elects
    ? @britainelects

    The government stopping Parliament from meeting between mid-September and mid-October is…

    Acceptable: 31%
    Not acceptable: 53%

    via @YouGov
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/unhyjkudnd/InternalResults_190829_VI_w.pdf

  22. @Jim Jam

    Looking at it cynically, Corbyn’s best chance of becoming PM is at a GE following a disastrous no-deal Brexit which he can pin on the Tories alone. No doubt Seumas Milne has thought it through and advised him to insist on being caretaker PM to prevent any new administration being formed after a VoNC. Significantly, even before the latest discussions amongst the opposition parties, Corbyn consistently refused to say he would definitely call a VoNC as soon as Parliament returns; he always says that one will be called at the ‘appropriate time’*, which could be after the Queen’s Speech, leading to the possibility of us crashing out of the EU during the 14-day period as Boris would still be PM in the absence of a VoC in another administration.

    *The wording in the BBC article on 15th August was: ‘He said he would call a no-confidence vote – which would require majority support – at the “earliest opportunity when we can be confident of success”.’

  23. @Hal:

    ‘a simple legislative fix would be to require any order to prorogue Parliament to be approved by a vote in the Commons before the date that it takes effect.’

    Simple indeed, since one wouldn’t even need to draft the bill – on could just copy the following text from the Act To Prevent Inconveniences Which May Happen by the Untimely Adjourning Proroguing or Dissolving of this Present Parliament of 1640:

    ‘This present Parliament now assembled shall not be dissolved unlesse it be by Act of Parliament to be passed for that purpose nor shall be at any time or times during the continuance thereof prorogued or adjourned unlesse it be by Act of Parliament to be likewise passed for that purpose And that the House of Peers shall not at any time or times during this present Parliament be adjourned unlesse it be by themselves or by theire owne order And in like manner that the House of Commons shall not at any time or times during this present Parliament be adjourned unlesse it be by themselves or by theire owne Order And that all and every thing and things whatsoever done or to be done for the adjournment proroguing or dissolving of this present Parliament contrary to this Act shall be utterly void and of none effect.’

  24. Like many Scots polling geeks, I keep an eye on the YG Scottish crossbreaks because they cover a single polity and are (at least partially) based on internal demographics, despite the small number in each.
    The “Scot Goes Pop” site has averaged the last 8 – since Johnson took over

    YouGov Scottish subsample average since 24th July: (N=1250+)
    SNP 44.4%
    Conservatives 19.3%
    Liberal Democrats 12.8%
    Labour 11.4%
    Brexit Party 7.0%
    Greens 4.0%

    Westminster seat projection: (Electoral Calculus)
    SNP 52 (+17)
    Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c)
    Conservatives 2 (-11) [Mundell and Lamont]
    Labour 1 (-6) [Murray]

    Until we get proper Full Scottish polling (probably a flurry of them around the 5th anniversary of Indyref1 on 18th September), that’s probably a reasonable estimate of where Scottish politics sits, with regard to Westminster voting.

    I’ve seen little reaction to Corbyn’s statement that a Lab Government wouldn’t “allow” Indyref2 until they had dealt with important matters, but that may well be because the assumption is that it’s designed to let Slab continue to campaign as Unionists – until they fail again (see above) and are only then thrown under a bus, due to pressing need to face the reality of post GE parliamentary arithmetic.

    In any case, current polling suggests that England (or even adding Wales now) electing enough Lab MPs to get near forming an administration isn’t a realistic prospect.

  25. Rosieanddaisie,
    “Whatever qualities he does have, thinking on his feet just doesn’t seem to be one of them.”

    My logical deductions argue that con do not want brexit but dare not say so or act openly against it. While labour mostly needed to be seen to have been against the government proposals, but powerless to stop them

    BoJos course is relatively clear. He just has to spout off in as hard a leave vein as he can. He needs to be as unreasonable and confrontational as possible to stir up opposition. JC needs to not be involved in anything decisive, and thats exactly what he has done. BJ tries to force JC to act, JC tries not to.

    Just as I thought there couldnt be any more mileage in con being left by labour to alienate voters, they start messing with the constitution. If labour had finally decided to take a stance, this might have given them pause once again. But refusing to stand up for remain is now undermining labour credibility. However, they are relying on FPP to give them a win in an election held now despite their ambivalence.

    Boris best outcome is parliament defeats him and then he loses a subsequent election.

    The media…parrot the statements of the politicians as if they were unquestionably true.

  26. Interesting Twitter thread, starting here:

    https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/status/1167162506135121926?s=09

    Basically it suggests that BJ’s tweets are being retweeted by a large number of accounts that seem to be mainly about supporting Trump and his “America First” policies. No firm conclusion as to whether these are “bot farms” or just that natural supporters of Trump will like what BJ is doing

    Either way, it makes me wonder if BJ risks believing his own propaganda and thinks his position is more popular than it actually is.

  27. Ipsos MORI poll

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/few-believe-governments-explanation-why-parliament-be-suspended

    A new Ipsos MORI online poll of adults aged 18-75 across Great Britain shows that seven in ten (70%) think the main reason the government has proposed parliament does not sit between 10 September and 14 October is to limit MPs’ opportunity to stop a “no-deal” Brexit – just 13% say it’s to plan for a Queen’s speech to deal with issues like the NHS and crime – the reason stated by the government. When it comes to the move, more believe the government was wrong to do this (46%) than right (30%) – although a majority of Leave voters (58%) think the government was right to take this action (20% say it was wrong) while three quarters (74%) of Remain voters think it was wrong (11% say it was right).

  28. Jonesinbangor,
    “Labour should sit on their hands over Brexit and let the Tories get their deal. Just abstain. The Tories then own Brexit, ”

    Really, no. If labour abstain so that a con measure passes, then they have allowed it to happen and are complicit in whatever happens next. They have to, in the end, be seen to have tried their hardest. Just like for con. its just that if they fail to stop the conservatives, that outcome might be best for the labour party (but not for the country).

    “People vs Parliament = Tory Landslide.”

    Curtis was on R4 this morning. I thought his roundup flawed because he never covered whether the remain vote would in the end unite behind lab. It did in 2017. And there are more remainers now. Otherwise the situation seems pretty much reset right now to before that election. Tories will seek to argue as you have, that winning the election was safe and easy, whereas if they create an election it will be in the expectation of losing and thereby stopping brexit.

    Allan Christie,
    ” their percentage of the vote share plummeted like a puffin with no wings falling off Sumburgh Head”

    yes, but in Scotland the SNP is a serious left wing anti brexit party. In England the libs do not have such a competitor, at least not at the moment. But one could appear like superman at a moments notice, powered by FPP.

  29. Jim Jam

    What about Rory Stewart?

  30. @Danny

    “Really, no. If labour abstain so that a con measure passes, then they have allowed it to happen and are complicit in whatever happens next. They have to, in the end, be seen to have tried their hardest. Just like for con. its just that if they fail to stop the conservatives, that outcome might be best for the labour party (but not for the country).”

    I suspect it will come to the cliff edge, Deal or no deal.

    Labour will be forced to support the deal as I have no doubts whatsoever that Johnson is enough of a maverick to take that leap off the cliff with the ERG!

  31. Valerie – doubt it, he is under no Reselection threat and is not standing down.

    He may well support other measures, Cooper/Letwin type options, as could Hammond, Gauke and over 30 (maybe as many as 50) Tory MPs.

    LL – the plan/expectation was always for the second week of October (possibly 14/15/16th) for a VONC if no other device worked. Part of the motivation for the prorogation may be to force it to be next week which would help the Government as the 30 day ‘Merkel’ window is still open and hence the possibility, even if remote, of a deal.

    I hope there is no VONC next week and believe that even if a GE occurs due to a VONC before 16th Oct + 14days a way will be found to suspend leaving on Oct 31st with no deal pending the GE.

  32. @HIRETON: “I wonder what it is about a successful, assertive, black woman that @davidcarrod finds “odious”?”

    My opinion would be exactly the same if she was an unsuccessful, timid, white man.

    She is a self-appointed and unelected spokesperson for the body of Remainers who cannot accept the result of the referendum. She clearly thinks that her world view is somehow more valid than that of the rest of the 33.5m fellow citizens who voted.

    All she is doing is wasting precious Judicial resources and time, while at the same time raising her personal profile, and no doubt bringing more clients to her business.

  33. David Carrod: She is a self-appointed and unelected spokesperson for the body of Remainers who cannot accept the result of the referendum. She clearly thinks that her world view is somehow more valid than that of the rest of the 33.5m fellow citizens who voted.

    All she is doing is wasting precious Judicial resources and time, while at the same time raising her personal profile, and no doubt bringing more clients to her business.

    Are you the new state prosecutor for ideological crimes?

  34. DAVID CARROD

    You would have an arguable point had the referendum not been advisory. Sadly, from your point of view, it was only advisory and promised no particular outcome would result.

    Do read the act which applied before you repeat your uninformed assertions.

  35. Polling.

    The 28-29 Aug yougov has
    leave 24% con+ 9% BxP=33%
    Remain lab 16% + lib 15% + grn 6% + SNP 3%= 40%

    will not vote 10%
    Dont know 16%

    I make that a lead of 7% for remain, with 16% still to be persuaded by someone.

    As to the right/ wrong to leave question, it has hit 40% right to leave, 50% wrong to leave. Which is pretty much the same proportions as above are supporting leave or remain parties. So consistent results there from asking the same question different ways.

    Prorogation unacceptable 53% acceptable 31%. There are quite a few leavers who dont think it is an acceptable move.

    There is statistically equal support for a new election/no new election or requiring an extension instead of no deal/no deal. Just slightly on the numbers though, respondents prefer not to delay for a new election and to take no deal instead of delaying further over the decision.

    On the other hand, by a small but significant margin voters think taking no deal would not be respecting democracy. But also modestly more think rejecting no deal would not be respecting democracy. The total saying one or other are not respecting democracy is 96%, so while its two questions, it is probably 52% say opposing no deal is undemocratic while 44% say supporting no deal is undemocratic. Which are quite strongly expressed views of discontent with the process.

    Multiple choice on outcomes, most popular is 2nd ref and then remaining 36%
    Leave no deal 27%
    May Conservative deal 6%
    new deal including SM 16%

    Perhaps interestingly, both leavers and remainers show similar larger support for new deal including SM rather than the May deal. So some leavers would actually prefer a closer relationship to the EU than May negotiated. In fact more go for that than her deal. Only 56% of leavers support no deal (4% of remainers)

    Remainers believe no deal would cause major disruption. Leavers do not. I have always maintained this is the critical difference between the two groups. This finding hasnt changed. It implies that if either is proved wrong by events, they are likely to change their brexit stance.

    So a bad brexit is likely retrospectively to turn leavers into remainers, or a good one remainers into leavers. And that is the saving grace or man trap standing in front of the conservatives. They have always acted as if it is a man trap.

  36. Danny

    40% ‘right to leave’ and 50% ‘wrong to leave’ shows an unusually large 10-point lead for ‘wrong’. The previous poll had ‘wrong’ 6 points ahead which had become the average in recent months. It may simply be an one-off, or perhaps opinion is moving again on this having been much the same since the start of 2019.
    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

  37. A clear picture is emerging of the way in which 10 Downing Street is now operating under Cummings control.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-confronts-boris-johnson-over-advisers-sacking

    It’s not a structure or system which is going to take much strain in a crisis if it is operating like this now.

  38. So it seems in Brexitland that individual citizens are mot allowed to take action and campaign. Unless you are Aaron Banks of course who also has the advantage of being male, white and right wing.

  39. David Carrod

    “She clearly thinks that her world view is somehow more valid than that of the rest of the 33.5m fellow citizens who voted.”

    a classic example of the ad populum fallacy. Were there any songs or film in the top list that you didn’t like?

    As the referendum was just a poll (advisory), she is entitled to dislike the top of the pops.

  40. David Carrod,

    “She clearly thinks that her world view is somehow more valid than that of the rest of the 33.5m fellow citizens who voted.”

    No….

    She clearly thinks that we are all subject to the Law be that individual or Government and that the Government if it acts illegally should be challenged!

    If she is wrong then the Court will find against her and if she wins then by law she will be right and the Government even if elected in a vote where 33m votes will be wrong!

    I like the idea of living in a free society where people can challenge their Government in the Courts. For me that’s a key part of us being a Democracy.

    The alternative; populism where the Government can ignore the law if doing so is popular. A society where no one guards the guards.

    Peter.

  41. Hireton

    Its deeply shocking that one un-elected man (Cummings) appears to have so much influence and power at the very top of our govt.

    Is this what taking back control looks like?

    No doubt Brexiteers will be happy with all this. But amidst their glee they should perhaps take some time to just think about what is happening at the moment and the damage it is doing to our country’s reputation.

    I’m not one for hyperbole, but I do find this weeks developments deeply worrying. It’s as if the country I thought I lived in is disintegrating in front of my eyes.

    We are certainly paying a very high price in order for 52% of the 2016 voters to take a chance on our countries future that is, because of arguments on either side, at best a fifty-fifty gamble that it will ultimately be for the best.

    I wouldn’t risk my family’s future on those odds. Unfortunately, we seem to have a government under the influence of ruthless people who seem hell bent on betting the country’s future on those odds.

  42. @ James E

    “40% ‘right to leave’ and 50% ‘wrong to leave’ shows an unusually large 10-point lead for ‘wrong’.”

    “It may simply be an one-off”

    Correct, at this stage we it could easily be an outlier, and most likely it is. I correlates well to the uptick in LibDem support in the same poll, which is equally likely just to be an outlier. More data needed.

    However, I do find it interesting to note that this only the second double digit result in favour of “wrong to leave” in the history of that question. See:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nt60yymh7g/YG%20Trackers%20-%20EU%20Tracker%20Questions_W.pdf

    The other one was 38 vs 49 = -11 in December last year. So while it doesn’t necessarily indicate “Wrong” getting stronger, it is good evidence that things aren’t drifting back the other way towards “Right to Leave”.

  43. hireton: So it seems in Brexitland that individual citizens are mot allowed to take action and campaign. Unless you are Aaron Banks of course who also has the advantage of being male, white and right wing.

    But the important question: Is he odious?

  44. david carrot

    “She clearly thinks that her world view is somehow more valid than that of the rest of the 33.5m fellow citizens who voted.”

    *As* valid certainly.

  45. @David Carrod: ‘She [Gina Miller] is a self-appointed and unelected spokesperson for the body of Remainers who cannot accept the result of the referendum. She clearly thinks that her world view is somehow more valid than that of the rest of the 33.5m fellow citizens who voted.’

    I must have been off sick for the citizenship class where you learned that the right to have recourse to the courts under the rule of law is conditional on being elected, or on being a spokesperson for some larger body of people, or on having a world view in tune with the majority of those who voted in some particular ballot.

  46. Peter Cairns
    HDAN
    R&L
    Laszlo

    Its no use arguing with David Carrod.

    It seems that he is quite happy with the rule of the mob.

    Methinks us “enemies of the people” should just shut up.

  47. @TW
    “Exception on MP side being Grieve – his intervention to secure the Meaningful Vote (S13 of EU WA) saved us from May’s “deal” (which of course isn’t a deal and is certainly not Leave in anything but name). Phew!! ”

    More than that. Grieve’s action in substituting his amendment for the standing Lords amendment also created the present position, that a deal needs Parliamentary support but no deal does not. [1]

    The ERG should make him an honorary life member.

    [1] I hate to be smug but I pointed this out at the time and everyone was “that’ll never happen”. It still might not, but they’re not so certain that’s for sure.

  48. CHARLES

    “If Labour were prepared to back an option for a compromise leader of a GNU how would the numbers change?”

    I’d assume it would crash dramatically. There’s a handful of Tory rebels, LibDems and centrist independents. Maybe 30 max. Some say that they’ll play party or personal politics and won’t vote for LOTO.

    In the alternative scenario there’s 247 Labour or Labour Coop MPs. The assumption that if that fraction I’d the thirty persist in their pettiness they can all be delivered to back Jo Swindon’s PM is laughable.

  49. Lord Sumption’s words have often been quoted on these pages.

    Stephen Sedley (apparently one of England’s best appeal judges) has this critique of Sumption’s book, based on his lectures.

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n17/stephen-sedley/a-boundary-where-there-is-none

    After six years as a judge – and, going by some of his judgments, a good judge too – he has returned to the theme of the deference owed by law to politics. It is his bad luck to have done so at a moment when the UK’s political process, both in and outside Parliament, has been in functional meltdown and moral decline, while both his own court and the lower courts have remained a source of constitutional principle and political stability.

  50. Damn I hate autocorrect. Even I don’t know what I was saying there.

    In a nutshell if 10 of thirty of those Swinson claims to speak for are anyone but Corbyn, I reckon far more than 10 currently taking the Labour whip would vote for LOTO out of party loyalty but feel freed of that for her choice.

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