First Boris v Ken poll?
The first Ken vs Boris poll is out in the Standard – Livingston 32%, Johnson 23%, Greg Dyke (presumably as an indepedent) 9%, an unspecified Lib Dem on 6%, John Bird (again presumably as an independent) 5%, unspecified Lib Dem on 5%. 25% undecided. It was conducted by Ciao!, an internet outfit who are part of Greenberg, so a reputable parent company, but no way of knowing the quality of the panel, what weighting was applied, what the actual question was and so no way of knowing how meaningful this is. Given that we don’t know which, if any, prominent independents will stand, nor who the Lib Dem candidate will be, voting intention questions at still stage are a bit articifical. The most relevant question at the moment will be which of the two presumptive front runners, Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson, people are most likely to support – if either, as a pointer towards who the eventual victor would be once second preferences are taken into account.
The poll was conducted a week or so ago, prior to Boris confirming he was going to run – hopeully we’ll have a poll from someone with a track record at some point in the near future.
(UPDATE – the actual first poll finally turned up here)
Filed under: London
Have any polls been tracking support for the principle of an elected Mayor in London? I haven’t seen any.
Do people regard the shenanigans we see at each contest as a bit of a joke or a positive part of the democratic process? Has it boosted support for the idea in other cities?
Does seem to be a worthless poll (unless we get the full details).
Obviously can’t comment about reliability of poll but two-thirds of those polled DON’T support Livingstone. No wonder he’s looking worried. Will Boris help the Tories in Ealing?
Wolf, while you’re right about the two thirds issue, Livingstone only managed 36.8% in first preferences in 2004. The notion that he is wildly popular is a myth.
Norris managed 29.1% in 2004 first round. Livingstone then gained an additional 15.7% in the second round and Norris 14.0% – this is where there will be any Boris effect, or not. In all likelihood, the best a Tory can hope for is to finish slightly ahead in round 1 (and this will be difficult enough – in last year’s council elections the Tory share was only about 33% – those were best-possible results for the Tories in London and a preferential system encourages even further splintering of the main parties’ votes). To win, the Tories need to stop second prefs disproportionately favouring Ken. Can Boris do that? Not convinced, but open to persuasion.
Yes, Linvingstone’s victories, while comfortable, were by no means emphatic in the previous two races…so it seems Borris has a chance! He certainly has more popular appeal than Norris!
Its not so much ‘Mayor of London’, more accuratley its ‘Prime Minister of London’, as London is now its own ‘Region’ of the EUssr.
I imagine Boris Johnson will be trying not to say anything silly, it will damage his campaign and the Conservatives generally, not as if they need any more bad news right now.
Were there any polls before the last Mayoral election?
NewsElephant wrote: “Do people regard the shenanigans we see at each contest as a bit of a joke or a positive part of the democratic process?” This is a valid point and needs addressing now as Gordon Brown starts promising more power to the local communities and more Mayors.
Power won’t be handed down that easily if standards of local Government are not perceived to be of the highest order, prudent, and free from party Political shenanigans. Get it right for London and then, only then, move outwards or we will end up with non-elected Quangos at local level.
Central Government will not devolve or release power that easily!
It’s irrelevant whether people want a thing when it’s already there, so nobody would run such a poll as there is no way it will be removed.
Actually I quite like a real Mayor for London and would also take one for Cardiff and Edinburgh but after that the need is thin (okay, one for NI).
It’s not that we need more voting for Mayor of, say Chelmsford; we need an elected Upper and Lower Houses at Westminster and probably an England parliament (and, by implication, a Federal UK –I know the tautology)
Gary – yes, at some point nearer the election I’ll drag them all out!
Jack, why would you need a Mayor for Cardiff, but not for Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford or Birmingham – all of which are much larger cities? And why for Edinburgh but not Glasgow, which is again almost twice the size of the capital city?
You clearly seem to believe that there’s something about capitals that marks them out as special – what precisely is that? But why shouldn’t the default local government option for all but the most rural areas (and possibly even there) be directly elected mayors instead of largely anonymous councils?
Given that regional devolution, an elected upper house, electoral reform and elected mayors are current topics of debate, one would imagine that an opinion poll looking to gauge public support for these ideas versus the current set-up would be worthwhile.
If public support for the idea of an elected London Mayor (and the London Assembly) were to plummet, then surely one of the parties (probably the Tories given their previous opposition to it) would propose abolishing it?
If Ken comes out in favour of this gigantic Mosq he will lose hands down
Were there any polls before the last Mayoral election?
Yes, the only one during the Conservative primary last time put Ken Livingstone four points ahead of Steve Norris.
Capitals deserve an elected Mayor as I support a federal UK.
thanks LONDONER
“Capitals deserve an elected Mayor as I support a federal UK” wrote Jack! Fine but beware the implication if Central Government does not appreciate. or is fearful of. devolving power. They will seek to exercise control by preventing elected Mayors and having chosen (Party Political)nominees.
Tread carefully!
John, why do you say that, given that we only have directly elected Mayors because central government legislated to correct them? Not just in London but in Watford, Torbay, three London Boroughs, Doncaster, North Tyneside and Hartlepool to name a few.
To be honest, I’m not sure why Jack’s belief in federal power means only capitals should have mayors when there are far larger cities he evidently doesn’t believe are deserving of them, but that’s by the by.
It’s fine to be cynical of central government’s view of local government, but it’s hardly reasonable to assert that a government that created directly elected mayors (and has just pushed through an Act giving London’s more powers) actually wants to prevent them. All the evidence suggests otherwise: that it would have preferred far more local authorities to have opted for this form of governance.
I’d be interested to see a poll asking people to guess the populations of the UK’s constituent nations.
Most people’s instinct is that a devolved English Parliament seems to be a resonsonable and proportionate idea given the devolution of power to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
But if it was made clear in an opinion poll question that such a parliament would cover 50 million out of the UK’s 60 million people, would people still think it was such a good thing? or would they prefer regional assemblies (covering similar population sizes to Scotland and Wales) as a mechanism for devolving power down to more local levels?
Adam
Thanks: where I am cynical is in my perception of what the final control model that Central Government wants.
Directly elected mayors eventually may (or could perceivably) bypass local Councils and elected Councillors. The other model of operation of course is for the Council (and their elected Councillors) to elect their own Mayor and leader of the Council (which may be separate functions). This Mayoral function may be done on a seniority basis or some other fair and logical means.
That type of system operates already and can run smoothly and effectively. It needs strong “Clerks to the Council” or similar – and Central Government can ensure that – if it so desires.
Ken Livingstone will beat Boris Johnson a Mile!
I can’t See Boris Winning at All!
Ken third time lucky!
Two more polls showing a Labour lead today, The YouGov poll puts Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 33% and the LibDems on 15%. While a poll carried out for the Observer puts Labour on 41%, the Tories on 35% and the LibDems on 15%.
Both polls I presume were carried out before Thursday’s election results and the story today that several Tory MPs have called for a vote of no confidence in David Cameron.
Gordon Brown seems to be heading for that magical 40% plus, can his bounce go much higher than 41%, only time will tell.
The list of contenders to be Conservative candidate for Mayor of London has been published.
Apart from Boris the others are unknown to the general public.If the public don’t know who they are how will they vote for them.
They should look at Gordon Brown who certainly doesn’t lack ego and self-belief.
Re devolved govt- it’s not the size of the devolution which will matter; it’s that people first see themselves as English / Scottish etc.. People are not interested in the logic of ‘regions’-emotional nationalism is rightly or wrongly, the key issue here . As is for some, logic- Scottish / Welsh devolution is two things at once- a ‘regional’ issue which people don’t see and, vastly more importantly , a national issue. Labour hoped it would be sold as a regional issue; people (including the English) see it as a national issue which is why regional English bodies are voted against and an English Parliament makes logical sense given that the other component countries of the UK have one.
Gary – 40% isn’t magical for Gordon Brown, unlike the Tories he can pretty much guarantee a Commons majority on a lower percentage than that.
The YouGov poll would have gone out on Thursday, so probably about half prior to ES results, about half afterwards.
Is it possible to see a split in the results of the two halfs? Or are they inextricably linked in one group?
Good luck to Ken for a possible third term. Shame on the Tories for trying to get some sort of rule made to stop anyone having a third term! As for the buffoon Johnson: I’m glad the Tories have added him to their list as the man is a total divvy!
In fact he may as well be called ‘Banana Skin Boris’ as he’s regularly alienating someone somewhere (or even whole cities). Quite how anyone could think he’d have the policies to improve life in the capital is beyond all credibility. He’s an Old Etonian with no real idea of how ordinary Londoners live unlike Livingstone who is a born-and-bred Londoner.
As for polling on this, yup, I’d be up for that.
I’d put the magic figure for Labour at 35 to 36%. Amazing that the system can be like that.
Labour will get 37% at the Next General election and win by Majority of 30 seats!
Lab 37% 340 Seats
Con 36% 240 Seats
Lib 17% 38 Seats
Oth 10% 32 Seats
Labour Majority of 30 Seats and 1% Labour Lead!
Labour should win next Election and Ken wins London Mayor Election!
My Prediction based on current trends:
Labour: 41%
Tories: 33%
LibDems: 16%
Labour Majority: around 100 seats
London Mayor: Ken Livingstone (by a larger margin than last time)
Ken Livingstone will win and by a larger margin this time round.
Boris Johnson is a joke and a bad one to boot which is precisely what he’ll get at the election. I wouldn’t trust him with anything. He is a buffoon!