The first Ken vs Boris poll is out in the Standard – Livingston 32%, Johnson 23%, Greg Dyke (presumably as an indepedent) 9%, an unspecified Lib Dem on 6%, John Bird (again presumably as an independent) 5%, unspecified Lib Dem on 5%. 25% undecided. It was conducted by Ciao!, an internet outfit who are part of Greenberg, so a reputable parent company, but no way of knowing the quality of the panel, what weighting was applied, what the actual question was and so no way of knowing how meaningful this is. Given that we don’t know which, if any, prominent independents will stand, nor who the Lib Dem candidate will be, voting intention questions at still stage are a bit articifical. The most relevant question at the moment will be which of the two presumptive front runners, Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson, people are most likely to support – if either, as a pointer towards who the eventual victor would be once second preferences are taken into account.

The poll was conducted a week or so ago, prior to Boris confirming he was going to run – hopeully we’ll have a poll from someone with a track record at some point in the near future.

(UPDATE – the actual first poll finally turned up here)


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