I am a little cautious of the value of voting intention polls at this point, we can expect the appointment of a new Prime Minister to have a significant impact on political support, so voting intention polls right now seem a trifle redundant. However, for what they are worth there have been two new VI polls this week so far.

YouGov for the Times had topline figures of CON 22%(+2), LAB 20%(nc), LDEM 19%(-2), BREX 22%(-1), GRN 10%(+1). Fieldwork was Monday to Tuesday, and changes are from mid-June. Tabs are here.

Ipsos MORI‘s monthly political monitor in the Standard had topline figures of CON 26%(+1), LAB 24%(-3). LDEM 22%(+7), BREX 12%(-4), GRN 8%(-1). Fieldwork was over the weekend, and changes are from last month. Full details are here.

Both the polls have the Conservatives and Labour at similar levels of support, both have the Liberal Democrats close behind them and doing far better than in recent years.

There is a significant difference in levels of support for the Brexit party – 22% or 12%. Some of this may be down to one survey being online, one by telephone, with all the potential differences that leads to in terms of sample and interviewer effect. However at the European Parliament elections YouGov and MORI had the Brexit party at pretty similar levels to each other (YouGov had them 2 points higher than MORI), which doesn’t suggest that’s the main reason.

The more likely cause appears to be prompting. YouGov now include the Brexit party in their main prompt when they ask which party people will vote for, Ipsos MORI have not, so as not to upset their trend data. How much difference this makes is unclear… and indeed, it may have a different impact on online polls (where the answer options are there in front of people) and telephone polls (where people may be prompted with options, but can say what they like). MORI note in their write-up that it remains under review, and they may add the Brexit party to their main prompt in the future.


1,054 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI voting intentions”

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  1. If I have understood this latest manifestation of confusion within Labour –

    One faction (in this case leaders of Labour supporting trade unions) have come up with a couple of scenarios in which Labour may have to take a position on Brexit.

    At least the first of these, has the merit of plausibility – severely damaged by the incontestable fact that Labour does not have a majority in HoC to force EUref2.

    The 2nd scenario is simply cloud cuckoo land.

  2. New thread

  3. @PROFHOWARD

    However should Labour win a general election before Brexit, Labour would negotiate its own Brexit deal and then hold a referendum with remain on the ballot paper without being specific as to whether Labour it would back remain in those circumstances.

    That sounds kinda plausible in terms of what would happen after an election, but a bit surreal when you take it back a step… are they really going to go *into* a GE with a policy of

    “Vote for us and we’ll try even more negotiations, and if we’re successful and get a deal we like then we’ll ask the UK electorate to reject it anyway?”

    I mean, I know nothing much about Brexit makes rational sense, but this really would be taking it up to eleven.

  4. EDGE OF REASON

    Indeed.

    I think it only makes sense as a stepping stone to a policy of having another referendum on a soft Norway-style brexit v remain with remain being the campaigned-for option.

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