Comments on: The boost continues – Labour lead up to 7 points

By: Kevin Rodgers

Kevin Rodgers — Sun, 22 Jul 2007 02:08:02 +0000

The Result looks like its going be a Labour Victory by Narrow Margin.
Even the 2 Parties are still neck and neck still Labour win by Narrow Majority!

These are My 3 Forecasts shows this!

Neck and neck Scenario!

Labour 36.3% 335 MPS 36%
Conservative 36.1% 241 MPS 36%
Lib Dems 17.8% 42 MPS 18%
Others 9.8% 32 MPS 10%
TOTAL MPS 100.0% 650 MPS 100%

Labour win by Majority of 20 Seats.
Labour 0.2% Lead

Labour 36.7% 340 MPS 37%
Conservative 36.1% 240 MPS 36%
Lib Dems 17.3% 38 MPS 17%
Others 9.9% 32 MPS 10%
Total MPS 100.0% 650 MPS 100%

Labour win by Majority of 30 seats.
Labour 0.6% Lead.

Labour 36.7% 345 MPS 37%
Conservative 35.3% 231 MPS 35%
Lib Dems 18.0% 42 MPS 18%
Others 10.0% 32 MPS 10%
Total MPS 100.0% 650 MPS 100%

Labour win by Majority of 40 Seats.
Labour 1.4% Lead.

These are the Likely Result at the Next General Election either at 2008 or 2009 which is likely Brown to call this?

A hung Parliament could be likely but I think Labour Party will be largest Party even in a Hung Parliament.
But I would be Surprised if Hung Parliament was the result!

A Labour Victory is more Likely!

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 23:26:31 +0000

There’s a Guardian/Mori poll out, let’s just say things aren’t getting any better for the Tories.

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 20:32:53 +0000

re the comment about cash for peerages above, are there any polls about whether the public thinks the verdict was correct or not, or more generally, about trustworthness of politicians in general? Or could we safely assume the result?

By: David Bowtell

David Bowtell — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 19:45:01 +0000

Despite the grumblings about Ming, the Liberals did well in the bye-elections as they always do which makes one wonder about the relevance of their poor poll performance come the General Election? With the exposure that a GE campaign brings and Ming’s improving media image as ‘a wise old bird’ I think they’ll do as well next time as they’ve done in the last 3 GEs. This could well be another nail in the Cameron coffin as a Lib vote at the GE might knock the Labour majotity down a bit but it won’t do the Tories much good at all. As I said in my previous contribution, I’m quite a fan of Electoral Calculus and using their predictor a straight vote of Labour 37%, Tory 33% and Libs 22% whilst it knocks 30 or so off the Lab overall majoriity compared to the current poll’s Lab 40%, Tory 33% and Libs 19% it only adds 3 to the Tory figure (201 to 204). Equally interesting, inserting a bit of tactical voting into the Electoral Calculus predictor (2.5% from Lab to Lib and 2.5% from Lib to Lab on the 37,33,22 base) knocks the Tories down to 183 and gives a Lab overall majority of 110 with the Libs about where they are now. These sort of voting figures aseem to me to be fairly realistic if Brown avoids major squalls, downgrades the Iraq presence and generally maintains the impression of seriousness and ‘getting on with the job,.

By: james youd

james youd — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 11:34:31 +0000

While i don’t believe the Greens will have any where near the resources to contest all seats at the next general, as Peter claimed. But it would be wrong to say they have no impact on results. As for ukip being ahead, this is plain wrong. Greens nearly always get the same or more as ukip in polls, and the local elections proved that ukip is rubbish at getting elected any where except in euro elections.

It would also be interesting to see if the Greens allow the tories to sneak into some seats on 30% or less of the vote.

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 01:22:37 +0000

And it seems like the endgame in Iraq, in terms of substantial British troop deployments, is in sight, which ought to give Gordon Brown more support from those core supporters offended by Blair and Iraq.

Surely it can’t be this good for a government after 10 years in power? Or is it the opposition?

By: Keith

Keith — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 01:18:58 +0000

The Conservative polling figures of around 33% seem strangely similar to those 6 months or so before the last election. Added to that is 3rd place in the recent by-elections, either those two results are meaningless or terrible, certainly not a good platform for victory.

As always, more polls required!

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Fri, 20 Jul 2007 19:53:32 +0000

Well cash for peerages is out of the way.

Peter.

By: Richard Nicholson

Richard Nicholson — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 22:18:53 +0000

Keith,

I think the point you raise about the boost for Brown because he is not Blair is significant.

As I have previously mentioned I believe around 3% of previous Labour voters had switched away because of Blairs stance on Iraq and another 2% had simply had enough of Blair and it is highly conceivable that some of them may return now Blair has gone and together with those who now consider Brown is not too bad after all, there is a real possibility that Labour will stabilise around 37% which will win them an election.

By: Keith

Keith — Wed, 18 Jul 2007 01:11:06 +0000

I was wondering how much of Brown’s boost might be attributed to him not being Blair. If any significant portion of his boost is due to this, then there is no reason why it should vanish, unless Blair decides he wants another go at being PM.

It seems to me that Brown’s boost took a little longer than
John Major’s to get going (purely from memory), possibly the second part was due to people deciding he wasn’t such a terrible replacement after all. Either that or perhaps people didn’t watch the news till the weekend (?)

Oh well roll on the next poll.