There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend – I don’t know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don’t know if either are doing a final call):

Panelbase (14th-21st May) – BREX 30%, LAB 25%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 3% (tabs
Kantar (14th-21st May) – BREX 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 15%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, ChUK 5%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
Opinium (17th-20th May) – BREX 38%, LAB 17%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 2%
YouGov (19th-21st May) – BREX 37%, LAB 13%, LDEM 19%, CON 7%, GRN 12%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 3% (tabs)
BMG (20th-22nd May) – BREX 35%, LAB 18%, LDEM 17%, CON 12%, GRN 8%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 2% (tabs

The broad story across the polls is the same – the Brexit party are ahead, Conservative support has utterly collapsed, the Lib Dems are doing well in the mid-to-high teens, and both Change UK and UKIP have failed to shine. There is more variation in the detail, and particularly in how well or badly Labour are doing. Kantar and Panelbase have them not far behind the Brexit party; Opinium and BMG have them down in the teens, YouGov have them below the Liberal Democrats in third place.

This isn’t an election like 2017 when pollsters took very different approaches and the differences are easy to explain. The polling companies aren’t taking radically different approaches – there are some differences in turnout modelling (BMG and Opinium, for example, are taking only those most certain to vote, which will be boosting the Brexit party and Lib Dems), Kantar are estimating the likely vote who say don’t know based on their demographics and answers to other questions, which explains their comparative low figure for the Brexit party (they’d be on 31% otherwise). And don’t overlook simple things like when the fieldwork was conducted – all the polls have been showing a downwards trend in Labour support, so it may not be co-incidence that the polls from Panelbase & Kantar whose earliest fieldwork is over a week old have higher support for Labour.

The bottom line however is that this is a tricky election. Firstly, turnout for European elections is normally low (and one of the problems with polls in recent years is getting too many of the sort of people who vote, and not enough of those who don’t bother). Secondly, most polling companies rely on some degree to weighting by past general election vote to make sure their samples are representative, as how people voted at previous elections normally correlates pretty well with their current vote. An election like this, when an awful lot of people are not voting for the party that they voted for at the last election, will make those techniques less effective. We shall see on Sunday.

In the meantime, several people have asked me about exit polls tomorrow. There won’t be any. The big, offical BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is only conducted at general elections anyway, but even if they wanted to, they couldn’t do one tomorrow. For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.


1,788 Responses to “European Election polls”

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  1. NickP,

    “Looks like the rule of law now being ignored by the fascists”

    How’s this for a put down…

    Brxt hasn’t got the brains to be a Fascist!

    Peter.

  2. LeftieLiberal : The Ipsos-Mori poll looks nearly right in the middle of YouGov and BMG, suggesting to me that they have all captured late swing.

    Or they’re just herding.

    I still think 35% is very much Nigel’s upper bound, unless the turnout is very low.

  3. Cable is Euron Greyjoy – any LDs really as they facilitated austerity like he supported Cersi.

  4. @ HAL / NICKP – The party with plurality is the “winner” ;)

    However, for sure Remain folks will look to for various other “wins”.

    The key one will be “Arch-Leave” v “Arch-Remain”:

    BXP + UKIP versus LDEM + Green + ChUK (+NATS)

    If you include the NATS and use %s (as I’m sure Remainers will) then its looking very close in the polling.

    If BXP + UKIP “win” the “Arch” %s then I’m pretty sure LAB will “suddenly” be called a Remain party again as looks pretty certain if you add CON to Leave and LAB to Remain then Remain will win ;)

    So any Remainers want to move LAB back to the Remain side now?

    Speak now or forever hold your peace! ;)

  5. Jim Jam,

    In that case Corbyn is definitely Littlefinger

    Plausible but fundamentally two-faced.. Probably time to stop the Game of Thrones comparisons…

  6. Chaos is a ladder.

  7. Andrew111,

    “Plausible but fundamentally two-faced.. Probably time to stop the Game of Thrones comparisons…”

    I started it and I don’t even watch it, just thought it was topical!

    Peter.

  8. @ Rosie & Daisie
    You are right: Oscar Wilde never used smileys. He famously described them as the “Unthinkable in full pursuit of the Unspeakable”. (*&^+=(:):

  9. @ Triguy

    “Strong early candidate there for “troll of the day”. Let’s see if anyone can beat that.”

    OK- I will enter your competition. I wanted to vote far right today in the North West but the establishment has only given me a choice of BXP, UKIP, EDL and Tommy Robinson so not bothering.

  10. And what do we say to the Lord of Brexit, Arya?

  11. @ Triguy

    “Strong early candidate there for “troll of the day”. Let’s see if anyone can beat that.”

    Nominate “my first time voter” daughter.

    Remarked with pride to my family how we all 5 of us voted Green – she said she was confused by ballot paper and may have voted TBP.

  12. Brxt

    You could be right – I took a 40% cut in income when I moved to the UK in 1993 and I could vote today. Or just Liverpool has a more efficient organisation.

    Can we extend you idea – anyone going to university to have some chance of a living wage should be excluded, anyone putting the bet with the hope of winning should be excluded. And so on.

    ——

    It would be nice if Johnson was elected as Tory leader and was sent to prison (unlikely, I know, still that law suit could be interesting). Followed by Farage and so on. The world would become brighter and happier.

  13. Thanks for pointing out that error in my calculations. I also think my seat allocations could be off having looked at the Ipsos/Mori data.

    So let me revise that:

    BXP 26-30
    LD 16
    Con 2-6

    and No Alliance

    Some people may stick with Conservative or go to Conservative, because they only want to leave with a deal.

    I think that the Labour Party’s position of Leave, Customs Union and Second Referendum is very convoluted, even if it is a compromise, that is why they are suffering the same fate as the Conservatives in their voter support.

    The tragedy in this situation is that the UK now has two imoveable blocs of voters facing each other, one wanting to leave the EU under any circumstances and the other wanting to stay without discussing under what circumstances.

    That’s 80% and then in the middle are two weak leave options that only command the support of 1 in 5 voters. I doubt that Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn could or will have the ability make a better deal than Prime Minister May

    Neither, however, like Farage, have either the honesty or integrity to say that. On CBC National News, in Canada, last night the reporter asked Nigel Farage if he took any responsibility for the mess the UK was in.

    He simply said I am not Theresa May. No he and Boris Johnson are not the Prime Minister, who for whatever her faults, stuck it out trying to find a solution when no else could or was prepared to stay and do so.

    Corbyn, likewise, does not deserve to be Prime Minister, because he to has played partisan politics to the detriment of the UK people, and that will be reflected in Labour’s vote in this EU election.

    Very interesting to see Conservative at 42% certainty, then Labour at 53%, Green on 54%, Lib Dem on 60%, and Brexit on 90%

    Dilemma for Remain Conservative and Labour voters is them knowing that if they stay with their Party their vote could be construed as support for Leave.

    Dilemma for Lib Dem and Green is who to vote for to stop that last seat going to Brexit, Con or Labour?

    IpsosMori crossbreak for South East for example indicates race for last seat could be between Green, Conservative and Labour.

    If I am LibDem do I throw my vote to Green to stop Conservative or Labour and if I am “Remain” Labour or Conservative do I throw my vote to Green or Liberal Democrat to stop Brexit Party getting more seats.

    I still think the momentum is with three UK Party’s and the SNP because their political message in this EU election is clear.

    In any election the parties who get the most votes are usually the ones who connect with the voters interests and concerns, and I only think four party’s have done that, and possibly Plaid Cymru.

  14. @Brxt

    “Good. If I moved to their country purely for financial means I wouldn’t expect to shape their destiny.”

    UK is still part of Europe, and it’s a European election. The fact you can’t or won’t grasp this, is immaterial.

    Should Non-Scots people be barred from voting in Scottish elections if they live in Scotland? What about Scottish Indyref votes? There’s no difference. If you have to live with result, you should get a vote.

  15. If it’s any consolation to the disenfranchised Europeans in the UK, then they have the sympathy of the disenfranchised British living in Europe. I , like many others, only received my ballot paper on Saturday. It had been sent via the Netherlands. The return envelope was not franked for international post so it has to be taken to the post office on Monday and the postage paid. The staff there said it would have been better if I had put it in another envelope as affixing a stamp to a Business reply service envelope would confuse the sorting system. In consequence it was very unlikely to arrive on time, if at all.

    Everyone I know who has been in France for less than 15 years, still votes in their old UK constituency for obvious, Brexit related reasons. We can, of course, vote for French MEPs instead, but that does not help in the present situation. Longer term, over 15 years, British residents only have the opportunity to vote for French candidates in European elections and most do so although with little enthusiasm.

  16. Just back after my stint at the polling station.

    Not unexpectedly, SNP only party with a rota of polling agents (though I doubt that we make any difference!). SLab & SCon both usually have one poor soul who covers most of the day at each station, but both were no shows today.

    Polling staff reckon turnout is up a bit from previous Euro election, so that matches Peter’s report.

  17. To think that the Night King himself was stopped by assassins wielding Valerian milkshakes.

    Dracharis!

  18. @NICKP

    And what do we say to the Lord of Brexit, Arya?

    “Not today.”

    I see Boris Johnson as Robert Baratheon – a seemingly genial buffoon of middling intellect who mistreats women and neglects his responsibilities, preferring to indulge himself. I just hope Johnson doesn’t leave as dire a legacy as King Robert.

  19. Peter,
    If you had watched Game of Thrones you would realise that most of the charscters have no redeeming features whatsoever! (and if they do, they get killed off, statistically speaking)

  20. Will she or will she go
    Will she stay or will she go now.

    Remember The Clash?

    Or,

    Stand down Theresa, stand down now

    From The Beat.

    Love the 80s!

  21. @Lee Moore

    “I still think 35% is very much Nigel’s upper bound, unless the turnout is very low.”

    Expectation management warning!

    By the way what do you think Gerard and Tommy will manage with UKIP? They got over the little bother with Carl and look to have righted the ship. Neil may do OK in Wales too, I believe.

    Where does Aaron fit into all this by the way?

    Of course Boris does what Boris wants, so we’ll have to see where all this ends up after Theresa jacks it in. Now Angela has plunged the knife I don’t think it will be long now. Michael was a bit coy on the news tonight, as was Jeremy and I suppose we’ll have to wait to see which way Phil jumps before we can be sure.

    Jeremy and John looking on with interest no doubt.

    :-)

  22. AndrewIII

    Well Daenerys had quite a few redeeming features.

    ;-)

  23. Btw i am reading my post at 2.50 pm which should have said that in Kirklees more thsn 5000 EU nationals were able to vote in the local elections, but less than 500 today. (using symbols for less than probsbly messed it up)

    Kirklees electoral office worked hard to get them on the register (I put no blame on them – they have been working weekends to make this election happen, overlapping with the locals that should have been on the same day) but in a normal Euro election year this process would have started with voter registration last summer.

    The comments of Brxt on this certainly gives the lie to the idea that the Faragists are “defenders of democracy”

  24. Tonybtg
    She has her attractions but the probability of being burned to a crisp by a dragon would make me cautious!

  25. @EOTW

    “Remarked with pride to my family how we all 5 of us voted Green – she said she was confused by ballot paper and may have voted TBP.”

    Happens to the best of us…walking away from the polling station I was wondering if I had accidently voted Tory instead of Green, all those trees, and they were together on the ballot paper. Had to check online and I think I got it right…

    How did the Tories get away with a tree symbol anyway…?

    Our polling station had no tellers from any party, but most of the names had been crossed off, so turnout looks high down here in Brexit central…can’t drive anywhere without seeing Brexit party signs fixed to every traffic light and streetlamp and we were a clear leave area (who voted in a Lib Dem in our ward in the council elections)…very confused lot here – interested to see who they voted for this time.

  26. @ TONYBTG

    Not quite 80s, but how about “We’re only making plans for Nigel”?

  27. @ OLDNAT – “Not unexpectedly, SNP only party with a rota of polling agents”

    The Sturgeon Youth?

    I’m guessing yellow shirts instead of brown though?

    Mind you at least English taxpayers aren’t paying for you to have free milkshakes to throw at anyone who is wearing a rosette from a party other than the National Socialist Scottish Workers Party.

    I guess it’s different up in Naz! Scotland but in England you’re not allowed to “campaign” in polling stations so we don’t have “agents” deployed at polling stations to influence voting.

  28. Just voted – the polling officer reckoned it was quieter than the locals (~42% turnout)

    As I walked down the road away from the polling station I was passed by two elderly couples (well, a couple in their late fifties, and a couple about eighty years old) walking down the pavement with the gents chanting ‘yeah, let’s go, vote Brexit!’ repeatedly and waving their fists in the air.

    It was really quite surreal…

  29. Voted about an hour ago and there were quite a few people going in and out at the same time, poll clerk said it had been “steady”.

    By the highly unscientific method of counting strikethroughs on the page of the electoral roll I was on, looked about 20-25% turnout so far. At any rate, doesn’t look like it’ll be anything too out of the ordinary for turnout.

    First time I’ve voted at this polling station, though, so I don’t really know how this compares.

  30. The Trevors have excelled themselves by allowing one of their more idiotic members to post.

    I should, of course, have said “polling place”, not “polling station”.

    However, congrats to Trevorbot966 for being an even more offensive troll than Brxt.

  31. via Alberto Nardelli – Netherlands exit poll

    [changes from 2014 seats in brackets]

    PvdA (Labour) 5 seats [+2]
    VVD (liberals) 4 [+1]
    CDA (Christian Democrats) 4 [-1]
    GL (GreenLeft) 3 [+1]
    FvD (far-right nationalists) 3 [+3]
    D66 (liberals) 2 [-2]
    CU-SGP (conservatives) 2 [nc]
    PVV (Wilders) 1 [-3]
    SP (socialist party) 1 [-1]

  32. @OldNat

    “Just back after my stint at the polling station.”

    That’s a rather grandiose description of the brief and simple act of placing a cross on a ballot paper, or did you get involved in a very elaborate spoiled paper??

    :-)

  33. CANADA

    “Very interesting to see Conservative at 42% certainty, then Labour at 53%, Green on 54%, Lib Dem on 60%, and Brexit on 90%”

    Doesn’t that ad up to more than a 100%?

    [JOAK ALERT]

    Robbie

    I bet old Oscar’s books would have been full of smilies if he’s written them via a laptop like proper authors.

  34. @ OLDNAT – “I should, of course, have said “polling place”, not “polling station”

    Yeah, right, whatever. I’m the !diot Leaverbot of course :-) :-)

    I see the famous Scottish sense of humour is alive and well.

  35. CB11

    Don’t parties use polling agents in your part of the UK?

    I suppose if you don’t have enough members to mount a presence outside polling places, that is to be expected.

  36. I`ve been up recording around Peterhead today, and thought I would have a look down at the harbours and see the new fish market, Europe`s biggest.

    It`s hardly an exciting building, just a big shed. So it fits in well with all the other sheds and port equipment like ice-delivery towers and ship-repair facilities.

    The harbours were humming and packed, action everywhere. There was even an inshore vessel up on blocks in the quayside public-parking spaces, with men working on the hull or painting it.

    I thought about the comments on the previous thread about the inshore boats losing out in recent years, and the problems with the CFP. But to a casual observer, there were no signs of that here, most vessels looking in good condition. And the port statistics are reasonably buoyant, certainly better than the English/Welsh steel industry.

    https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/media/21853/aberdeenshire-sea-fisheries-statistics.pdf

    We spotted just 1 big election poster, for SNP. The 1271 fishermen in those stats are most unlikely (IMHO) to consider English stockbroker Farage anything but a charlatan and fool.

  37. batty

    have you ever considered sending a post withOUT a bleedin’ smilie???????????????????

  38. Trevors

    “I’m the !diot Leaverbot of course”

    Since you all comment under the same name, it’s impossible to know whether you are the idiot Leaverbot who commented at 8:24, or an entirely different idiot Leaverbot.

  39. Leftieliberal,
    “London
    Con 11%
    Lab 9%
    LD 33%
    UKIP 4%
    BXP 26%
    ChUK 6%
    Grn 10%
    Oth 2%”

    Thats quite impressive numbers for lib dems. It is not amazing given some of the results we had in recent years, with lib dem wins in parts of London, and big remain tactical voting.

    Now the thing is, is a number as big as this (of course, if it turns out to be real) enough to persuade voters to vote this same way in a real election.

    if so, labour could find its northern heartlands falling to UKIP, and its London rather different supporters going lib dem.

    No more con, no more lab. Next parliament, four way split in England.

    The Trevor Collective,
    “@ ANDREW111 – Leadsom killed the WAB and May with it. May has been leading the army of the (brain) dead in cabinet but Leadsom waited patiently and took her revenge in the nick of time.”

    Surely it is obvious that announcing a new round of brexit votes and legislation was timed to try to make tories look more leave, by letting them denouce May. Culminating today in the election.

    Jim Jam,
    I think if labour are messing with voters heads by pretending not to be remain, it is a game of russian roulette. If labour is really determined to pass brexit, it is russian roulette forgetting to only use one bullet.

  40. @ RICHARD / EOTW – I heard of a few Brexiteer errors today:

    A liberal person who believes in democracy made the mistake of putting an X in the Liberal Democrats box.

    Someone else who wanted to Change the UK put an X in the Change UK box

    If either of those parties do well then it will because a lot of Leavers are th!ck rac!sts of course and certainly haven’t the brains to be fac!sts like those who need to put SNP their name ;)

  41. Nardelli’s assessment of the Netherlands exit poll –

    If Netherlands results on Sunday confirm the exit poll:

    – big surprising win for centre-left Labour
    – solid result for liberal PM Rutte’s party
    – far-right nationalists will have made a net gain of 0 (zero) seats.

  42. @ BFR – Did you “milkshake” them?

  43. “OLDNAT
    Nardelli’s assessment of the Netherlands exit poll –

    If Netherlands results on Sunday confirm the exit poll:

    – big surprising win for centre-left Labour
    – solid result for liberal PM Rutte’s party
    – far-right nationalists will have made a net gain of 0 (zero) seats.

    Mmmm – maybe I should move there then, instead of Scotland, the land of my burrrrth.

  44. In Northern Ireland turnouts are posted at 12, 5 and 9pm.

    A sample of nine polling stations – and the rule that turnout is typically double that at 5pm – suggests it will be 43-53%.

  45. @Trev

    “I guess it’s different up in Naz! Scotland”

    Better pop off and polish that bridge of yours old bean. Spring cleaning won’t do itself. Chin chin!

  46. ^ According to Lucid Talk.

  47. And the highly-regarded journalist, Sam McBride, argues: “Despite all the noise about Brexit, based on a small sample from across Northern Ireland, the 5pm #EuElection2019 turnout in NI seems fairly consistently down on the 5pm turnout in the council elections three weeks ago (where final turnout was 52.7%).”

  48. R&D

    “Mmmm – maybe I should move there then, instead of Scotland, the land of my burrrrth.”

    Probably many countries will see the far-right nationalists gaining no seats. Sadly England is unlikely to be one of them.

    Probably best to wait to see all the actual results before deciding which country you would like to move to. Of course, if the UK decided to end freedom of movement, the choices for you (and especially the dugs) might be somewhat restricted.

  49. @Danny

    The sub-samples are small and not necessarily balanced, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were many Labour supporters lending the Lib Dems their vote in this election to send Corbyn a message. As I commented to Jim Jam earlier, this is the one election where they can do that safely.

    It’s just a pity that we don’t have exit polls like they do in The Netherlands, otherwise we would know soon which of the pollsters were closest to the result.

    @OldNat
    It is interesting that VVD (economic liberals) have gained, while D66 (social liberals) have lost.

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