There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend – I don’t know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don’t know if either are doing a final call):

Panelbase (14th-21st May) – BREX 30%, LAB 25%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 3% (tabs
Kantar (14th-21st May) – BREX 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 15%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, ChUK 5%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
Opinium (17th-20th May) – BREX 38%, LAB 17%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 2%
YouGov (19th-21st May) – BREX 37%, LAB 13%, LDEM 19%, CON 7%, GRN 12%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 3% (tabs)
BMG (20th-22nd May) – BREX 35%, LAB 18%, LDEM 17%, CON 12%, GRN 8%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 2% (tabs

The broad story across the polls is the same – the Brexit party are ahead, Conservative support has utterly collapsed, the Lib Dems are doing well in the mid-to-high teens, and both Change UK and UKIP have failed to shine. There is more variation in the detail, and particularly in how well or badly Labour are doing. Kantar and Panelbase have them not far behind the Brexit party; Opinium and BMG have them down in the teens, YouGov have them below the Liberal Democrats in third place.

This isn’t an election like 2017 when pollsters took very different approaches and the differences are easy to explain. The polling companies aren’t taking radically different approaches – there are some differences in turnout modelling (BMG and Opinium, for example, are taking only those most certain to vote, which will be boosting the Brexit party and Lib Dems), Kantar are estimating the likely vote who say don’t know based on their demographics and answers to other questions, which explains their comparative low figure for the Brexit party (they’d be on 31% otherwise). And don’t overlook simple things like when the fieldwork was conducted – all the polls have been showing a downwards trend in Labour support, so it may not be co-incidence that the polls from Panelbase & Kantar whose earliest fieldwork is over a week old have higher support for Labour.

The bottom line however is that this is a tricky election. Firstly, turnout for European elections is normally low (and one of the problems with polls in recent years is getting too many of the sort of people who vote, and not enough of those who don’t bother). Secondly, most polling companies rely on some degree to weighting by past general election vote to make sure their samples are representative, as how people voted at previous elections normally correlates pretty well with their current vote. An election like this, when an awful lot of people are not voting for the party that they voted for at the last election, will make those techniques less effective. We shall see on Sunday.

In the meantime, several people have asked me about exit polls tomorrow. There won’t be any. The big, offical BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is only conducted at general elections anyway, but even if they wanted to, they couldn’t do one tomorrow. For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.

1,788 Responses to “European Election polls”

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  1. Pete B

    “Presumably we’ll start to get actual results in the early hours of Monday as I understand that counting doesn’t even start until 10pm.”

    Not true. I’ll be an accredited counting agent for Waverley. The information we’ve been given by the electoral officer is that verification of ballots will begin late Sunday morning. That will take quite a long time. Thereafter, actual counting is expected to start at about 4pm. Counting itself should proceed reasonably smoothly, and should be completed well before 10pm.

    What will not happen before 10, is any announcement of the result, as that is prohibited until other EU countries have finished voting. I would expect the announcement therefore, soon after 10.

  2. @Imperium

    “….and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.”

    Out of interest, does anyone know which countries those are? I can’t think of any EU country that’s really big enough to justify taking four days to hold an election.”

    No countries take four days to vote – but there are many (most, in the EU) that don’t start on Sunday. Hence, they don’t finish until Sunday 10pm. UK voting on Thursday is an aberration, compared with the rest.

  3. @ Rosie and Daisy

    “There was a steady stream in my polling station at 7.10.”

    Do you think they’ll be able to call in a plumber during the election?”

    Or is possible ProfHoward thought he was in the polling station but went in the wrong door and ended up in the peeing station?

    VERY busy in our polling station in Cornwall late morning and yes it was the polling station! The staff saying not as busy as a GE so far but busier than a normal council election.

  4. Rosie&daisy,

    Well my canine chums when you’ve learned over the years how easy it is on here for people to be offended because they can’t tell what is and isn’t a joke…..

    Then I find It’s best to add the text equivalent of Boom Boom!


  5. bantams
    Only me and the tellers about an hour ago although a couple were walking out as I walked in.

    They somehow made me think of the bxt party but that’s being judgmental I guess.

  6. Peter

    That’s true but not sure I wish to pander to that. I’m sure Oscar Wilde never used !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! or Boom Boom ** or smilies – and he was quite funny.

    *** My favourite character on TV nearly 50 years ago when my daughter and I watched Basil Brush. Probably a close second actually to Charlie Brown, Snoopy etc.

  7. @Peter Cairns

    It’s sometime better ‘nettiquette’ to use a smiley to emphasise that humour is intended.

    :) ;) :D :( :P and so on


    Maybe we should change our system. Have polling stations in pubs. Make polling day a Friday. Give everyone the day off.

    One way or another it would make a more interesting election, and only the sober/geeks would watch beyond 2am. :D (did you spot that Peter?)

  8. Very quiet at my local polling station at 11.00am this morning. On the basis of what I saw, which was just one other person apart from me, and no one walking towards the polling station as I left, I confidently predict a nationwide turnout of 37.9867%.

    I wish I could be more precise but, of course, this is purely anecdotal.

  9. @ Crossbat11

    That prediction appears to be in the style of the late great Sue Townsend through her greatest creation Adrian Mole :-)

  10. CB!!

    “I wish I could be more precise but, of course, this is purely anecdotal.”

    I’ve been brainwashed so much by smiley advice that I am unable to tell if that was a joak or not batty.

    Please be clearer in future so that I am sure if it is correct to smile internally or not.


  11. @CB11


    Just to clarify. Is that rounded up or down?


  12. @ Terence Weldon

    Do you know how severe the restrictions will be on gossip while the verification/count is going on?

    Are we likely to see lots of tweets like we get with a General Election where people will comment on “Lib Dems expect to win Richmond Park” or is there going to be a crackdown on any information being tweeted before 10pm?

  13. @Shevii

    The Lib Dems (@LibDems) are tweeting for folk to vote for them. Tweeted 53 mins ago.

    Frankly if anyone makes their voting decision solely based on social media input, they deserve what they get. On that basis, I would be demanding the option to vote for Judith Kerr (RIP).

  14. Europeans being turned away from voting in EU election in the UK.

    For shame. Cradle of democracy, my eye.

    (Source Twitter : Pinch of salt etc.)

  15. How they sometimes do it.

    “Personation happens. I remember one polling station being overseen by a very strict headmaster who was very well-known in that community.

    “The first time that a certain party came into the system, they tried to impersonate people at his polling station.

    “A young man came in to vote and said his name was John Brown. The headmaster, who knew everyone in the area, stood up and came over to the imposter and sniffed his coat.

    “The young man asked him what he was doing and the headmaster said that he smelled very fresh for a man who had been dead for six months.”

  16. Ipsos-Mori poll reported in Evening Standard today:

    Brexit party 35%
    Lib Dems 20%
    Labour 15%
    Green 10%
    Conservative 9%
    UKIP 3%
    ChangeUK 3%
    Others 5% (I assume this is SNP+PC+others)

    1527 adults contacted across Britain by telephone between May 20th and 22nd.

  17. Ipsos-Mori poll reported in Evening Standard today:

    Brexit party 35%
    Lib Dems 20%
    Labour 15%
    Green 10%
    Conservative 9%
    UKIP 3%
    ChangeUK 3%
    Others 5% (I assume this is SNP+PC+others)

    1527 adults contacted across Britain by telephone between May 20th and 22nd.

  18. Statgeek,

    It is very likely that many Europeans expecting to be able to vote after voting only 3 weeks ago in the local elections will be turned away.
    The ultra short timescale means that many will not hsve engaged with the extra process required to vote. In Kirklees 5000 eligible 3 weeks ago. Of course an unknown number of them will have chosen to vote back home, but i doubt it is that many.

    These figures are not a rumour btw. I am a “designated nominating officer” and have them direct from the electoral office.

  19. Ipsos-Mori poll reported in Evening Standard today:

    Brexit party 35%
    Lib Dems 20%
    Labour 15%
    Green 10%
    Conservative 9%
    UKIP 3%
    ChangeUK 3%
    Others 5% (I assume this is SNP+PC+others)

    1527 adults contacted across Britain by telephone between May 20th and 22nd.

  20. I was getting timeout error on UKPR, but it looks like the postings got through anyway.

  21. The Ipsos-Mori poll looks nearly right in the middle of YouGov and BMG, suggesting to me that they have all captured late swing.

  22. Tight for second place in %age vote.

  23. This is a post on facebook from a left-wing friend of mine. I find his logic both fascinating and totally bonkers.

    How many left wingers are voting for Farage today?

    “Tomorrow I will vote for the BREXIT party. I will do so for these reasons:

    1. Because the result of the referendum in 2016 created a democratic imperative that Britain should leave the EU: not respecting that vote will corrode the already thinning trust in the democratic process (This is my main reason);
    2. The EU is a bureaucratically controlled institution that stands in the way of solidarity among working people in Europe and also between working people of Europe and the rest of the world. While I would support the creation of a democratically controlled United States of Europe, the institution of EU is not it; it is a red herring to propose the current institutions are reformable;
    3. My vote for the BREXIT party is made easier by the fact that some individuals, democrats and anti-racists from the left, including friends of mine, have joined it; other friends oppose the BREXIT party but are voting for it tomorrow for democratic reasons. However, my vote tomorrow is not based on the wider poltics of the candidates (party politics is for the 24th and beyond): tomorrow it is the only party standing on the single issue of respecting the 2016 vote, and I can with clear conscience support that.
    4. Finally, I have been appalled at campaigns in the so-called liberal media, especially the Guardian, which have been run on ad hominem attacks rather than principled debate. They have helped firm up my views.

    I am posting this as many of my close friends strongly disagree with me on this. Therefore, I believe it is time for some openness and honesty. I am a democrat, anti-racist and internationalist and encourage others to follow me.

    There are good people and good ideas (as well as bad ones) on every side at the moment. For those who oppose me, and indeed for all of us, I call for us to engage in open discussions about how we can rebuild trust in the democratic process and a better quality of listening to each other, engaging in dialogue and being critical based on ideas, rather than muck slinging. I have recently experienced (and put under pressure by) good honest argument around principles. We need more of that.”

  24. @PatrickBrian

    “I am posting this as many of my close friends strongly disagree with me on this.”

    In other words, “I haven’t found support for my silly ideas among my ex-friends, so have resorted to finding a like-minded echo chamber in the Social Media.”


  25. @ Statgeek

    That’s just a get out to vote that everyone does whether it works or not.

    I was more interested in what might be said on Sunday while votes are being counted in advance of the official 10pm cut off for saying how anyone might have voted. North East declared results at 10.20 so had presumably done all the work already and some people must have known or had a good idea by, say 8pm. In a normal election you get tweets as the count is taking place- sometimes those tweets are wrong but it usual follows the lines of “we are hearing Nick Clegg is in trouble” followed half an hour later by “Lib Dem sources are saying he has lost” followed an hour later by the actual result.

    But with 10pm rules I’m not sure of this same pattern will apply or whether at 10pm all the broadcasters pull together their gossip and announce it in one big go.

  26. Some more detail from the Ipsos-MORI poll. Note that the base for the headline figures (and below) is those saying they are certain to vote in the election. Also these sub-samples are pretty small (around 100-200) so statistical errors are bound to be large.

    Con 11%
    Lab 9%
    LD 33%
    UKIP 4%
    BXP 26%
    ChUK 6%
    Grn 10%
    Oth 2%

    Con 12%
    Lab 11%
    LD 25%
    UKIP 1%
    BXP 33%
    ChUK 1%
    Grn 15%
    Oth 2%

    Con 6%
    Lab 16%
    LD 21%
    PC * (<1%)
    UKIP 3%
    BXP 43%
    ChUK *
    Grn 8%
    Oth 3%

    Con 10%
    Lab 20%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%
    BXP 36%
    ChUK 5%
    Grn 8%
    Oth 5%

    Con 3%
    Lab 13%
    LD 13%
    SNP 29%
    UKIP 3%
    BXP 21%
    ChUK 9%
    Grn 9%

  27. @ NIck P

    Then we’ll find out if they [YG] are crooked afterwards if they carry on with their “methodology” if they are miles out.

    Presumably that needs one of Peter’s smiley things?

    One old lady was just casting her vote as I arrived. Otherwise deadly quiet in this corner of a predominantly leave county.

  28. @shevii

    In most conventional election counts it’s pretty obvious just by looking at the sizes of the respective piles of votes who is going to win long before the official results are announced. Since voting has normally closed when counting starts journalists are free to report what they’re seeing there.

    On this occasion I expect the general pattern will likewise be fairly obvious – though the last seat in most regions is likely to need a full count to be sure of – but either way journalists won’t be able to report it until after 10pm. There is a chance of rumours going around through unofficial channels, of course, but I wouldn’t know where to look for that.

  29. Postal Votes

    Firstly, excellent write-up by AW dealing with the methodology issues many of us had been wondering about.

    I’ll add a brief comment on postal votes which I think most companies ask for and factor in (but please reply if some don’t check).

    In GE’17 postal votes were 18% of total and those that asked to vote by post had 85% turnout (versus 66% for “in-person”), Table1.1 in link.

    Now postal votes have been trending higher in recent elections but this election was a bit last minute so no idea if those two factors cancel out or one outweighs the other.

    Anyway, folks that did vote by post might have been more likely to vote for their “usual” party. I certainly encountered quite a few folks quite upset they’d ticked the “usual” box on a postal form and wanted to change it to one of the “protest parties”.

    Also, although I h8te anecdotes, quite a few “usual” CON voters coming out of the local polling station now seem happy that Boris will take over and “sort it out”. Whether he does or not is TBA but that might mean CON get a few more votes at expense of some that were going to lend their vote to BXP?

  30. Despite my vote, looks like Labour will take a pasting in London. Shame.

    I have a horrible feeling that Boris will win & unite the Brexit vote while the remain vote splinters into a thousand shards.


  31. Covered 3 stations after Lunch; 15-20% postal depending on how rural, about 15% had voted in person by then in each.

    Probably just below 30% by mid way.
    Scotland EU 2014 33.5% so it looks like we could be heading to 40% plus!

    A higher turnout might favour BXP if it represents Leave voters who voted in the 2016 Ref but not 2014, but it could equally be motivated Leave or Remain voters and up here Indy voters who sat out the EU referendum.

    It will be worth seeing if turnout in Scotland is up by more than elsewhere because it has tended to be since the Indyref, but a OST Bxtref bounce might be more noticeable in England!



    “Europeans being turned away from voting in EU election in the UK.”

    Good. If I moved to their country purely for financial means I wouldn’t expect to shape their destiny.


    “They are apparently all of one view which unsurprisingly from a group of young middle class urbanites isn’t Brexit”

    Full of life experience then

  34. Strong early candidate there for “troll of the day”. Let’s see if anyone can beat that.

  35. brxt

    “Good. If I moved to their country purely for financial means I wouldn’t expect to shape their destiny.”

    Looks like the rule of law now being ignored by the fascists – this was always the next step after a “hostile environment”.

  36. Ipsos Mori have more or less come out with a poll that agrees with YouGov:

    Biggest takeaway is that over half those still planning to vote Conservative could shift their support and that around 40% to 46% of Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green voters could shift their allegiance in the voting booth

    Ipsos Mori also has Conservative running 5th behind Green, but Labour firmly in third.

    2019 Seat Prediction

    Brexit 31
    Lib Dem 14
    Labour 9
    Green* 9
    SNP 2
    Conservative 2
    Plaid Cymru 1
    Change UK 1
    Sinn Fein 1
    DUP 1
    UUP 1
    Alliance 1

    * Green Party of England & Wales 8 and Scottish Green Party 1

    2014 Percentages Including Northern Ireland

    UKIP+ 30.6%
    Labour 24.4%
    Conservative 23.1%
    Green Party of England & Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland 7.6%
    Liberal Democrat 6.6%
    Scottish National Party 2.4%
    Sinn Fein 1%
    DUP .8%
    Plaid Cymru .7%
    UUP .5%
    SDLP .5%
    Alliance .3%
    Other 1.5%


    Labour 36.7%
    Conservative 22.5%
    UKIP+* 20.7%
    Green 8.9%
    Liberal Democrat+** 8.6%
    Other*** 2.4%

    *UKIP+An Independence from Europe, Christian Peoples, BNP, English Democrat and No2EU

    **LIberal Democrat+4 Freedoms Party and National Liberal

    ***National Health Action, Animal Welfare, Communities United and Harmony

    Also running in 2019 Animal Welfare, Women’s Equality, UK EU Party and 11 separate Independent candidates


    UKIP+* 36.1%
    Conservative 31%
    Labour 14.7%
    Green 9.1%
    Liberal Democrat 8%
    Other** 1%

    *UKIP+Independence from Europe, BNP, English Democrats, Christian Peoples and Liberty GB

    ** Peace, Socialist (GB), Roman, Your Voice and Harmony

    Also running in 2019 Socialist Party (GB), UK EU and 3 separate Independents


    UKIP+* 35.5%
    Conservative 28.9%
    Labour 13.8%
    Green 11.1%
    Liberal Democrat 10.7%

    *UKIP+An Independence from Europe, BNP and English Democrat

    Also running in 2019 English Democrat and three separate Independents

    Yorkshire & Humber

    Labour Party 29.3%
    Conservative 19.2%
    Green 7.9%
    Liberal Democrat 6.3%
    Other** 1.5%

    EU constituencies where BNP obtained above 5% in 2009

    Yorkshire and the Humber 9.8%
    Northeast 8.9%
    East Midlands 8.7%
    West Midlands 8.6%
    Northwest 6.4%
    East of England 6.1%
    Wales 5.4%

    *UKUP+An Independence from Europe, BNP, English Democrats and no2EU

    ** Yorkshire Party

    Also running in 2019 English Democrat and Yorkshire Party

    Whose caucus would they be in:

    Brexit – Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy
    Conservative – European Conservatives and Reformists
    Ulster Unionist Party – Europeean Conservative and Reformists
    Labour – Socialists and Democrats
    Liberal Democrats – Alliance of Liberals & Democrats for Europe
    Green Party of England & Wales – Greens-European Free Alliance
    Scottish National Party – Greens-European Free Alliance
    Plaid Cymru – Greens-European Free Alliance
    Scottish Green Party – Greens-European Free Alliance
    UK Independence Party – Europe of Nations & Freedom
    Change UK – European Peoples Party
    Democratic Unionist Party – no affiliation

  37. Late Game of Thrones input (spoiler alert)

    Sansa Stark = Nicola Sturgeon

    In return for accepting Boris the Broken as PM she will be..

    “crowned Queen in the North in Winterfell (Holyrood), the ruler of a northern kingdom independent of the other six (three) realms of Westeros (UK)”

    Minor adjustments in bracket and some fashion tips for Queen Nicola attached:

    other suggestions

    Leadsom = Arya Stark
    Farage = Gendry
    Grayling = Edmure Tully
    Gove = Varys



    S/he wins it every day.

  39. @ PATRICKBRIAN – LAB’s “soul” searching is along the lines of Corbynites v Corbynistas

    The focus is on CON ripping themselves apart and the battle for the “soul” of their party but LAB is having Brexit soul-searching issues of its own (just less obvious as they are not HMG)

    Hopefully we’ll get a “post mortem” to see how many other traditional LAB think the same. My guess if quite a few in the “Heartlands” (as we saw in the YG Welsh poll) but not many in cosmo-metro seats (ie as per the EURef seat level results)

    Sadly LAB has been polluted by “Momentum” types who think throwing milkshake over an 80yr old is acceptable:

  40. I already has McVey as Edmuir Tully, Deluded unawareness of how others view them.

  41. That IPSOS/Mori may be right GB wide but those London and Scotland Cross-breaks render those, and the others due to balancing samples, seats forecasts improbably to say the least.

  42. Write-up of the preliminary hearing of Ball v Johnson:

    The judge will give a decision next Wednesday on whether the case is to be heard.

  43. YG live poll on British Steel

    “Do you think the company British Steel should or should not be nationalised?”

    It should: 46
    It should not: 18
    DK: 36

    Net +28 think it should

    X-breaks not as divisive as you might expect. Even CON were +11

  44. TW
    The one thing you can say about Arya Stark is that she is extremely competent in what she does, so she is not like Leadsom or indeed any other prominent Tory at the moment….

  45. NickP,

    There is to be no “winner” in the EP elections in the UK. No one party will get a majority of seats.

  46. @JJ

    I had my doubts about Canada’s seat allocation when he managed to get 4 seats out of Northern Ireland (1 each for SF, DUP, UUP and Alliance).

    It wouldn’t surprise me though if London Labour are sending a message to Corbyn that they don’t like his sitting on the fence over Brexit. After all, they know this is a free hit and they can always go back to the party next year for the London Mayor and Assembly elections when their votes do matter.

    We will know for certain on Sunday evening.

  47. NickP,

    Actually, I misread your post. You weren’t saying that after all.

  48. @ JJ – “I already has McVey as Edmuir Tully, Deluded unawareness of how others view them”

    She comes with very heavy baggage but from my side McVey is more like Yara Greyjoy

    her “Blue Collar” Brexit is quite Frank Field IMHO and just what we need to win seats in LAB Heatlands (although not with her selling it!)

    I don’t think she’ll make it past the early rounds and might even pull out but her handful of MPs might help the Brexiteer that makes it to the final 2 (MPs could block Boris but not 2 – so her allegiance will be useful to Boris or Raab)

    She’ll quite likely be back in cabinet IMHO and I’d pop her in G.Clarke’s (Lothar Frey) job. Most of the Frey’s making up quite a bit of the current cabinet and going to meet the same fate soon!

  49. @ ANDREW111 – Leadsom killed the WAB and May with it. May has been leading the army of the (brain) dead in cabinet but Leadsom waited patiently and took her revenge in the nick of time.

    May wrecked havoc and the damage might be irrecoverable but she won’t be in the final episodes of Brexit. When May goes her ne0liberal brain dead army go with her (Hammond, G.Clarke, Gauke, Rudd, Lidington, etc)

    (obviously assigning characters will be very partisan and I’m aware I just called the Gaukward squad the Freys – previously I’ve called Corbyn the Night King but I think May fits the M.O. as she wanted to turn the whole UK into a vassal state)

  50. @TW
    I like the way you describe that group as ‘May’s ne0-lib army’ as if most of the rest of the cabinet and most of the ERG aren’t at least as much paid up economic ne0-libs!

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