There are five polls with fieldwork conducted at least partially since the weekend – I don’t know if there are more to come overnight (I think there may be at least one more. ComRes and Survation have both polled during the campaign, but I don’t know if either are doing a final call):

Panelbase (14th-21st May) – BREX 30%, LAB 25%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 3% (tabs
Kantar (14th-21st May) – BREX 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 15%, CON 13%, GRN 8%, ChUK 5%, UKIP 4% (tabs)
Opinium (17th-20th May) – BREX 38%, LAB 17%, LDEM 15%, CON 12%, GRN 7%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 2%
YouGov (19th-21st May) – BREX 37%, LAB 13%, LDEM 19%, CON 7%, GRN 12%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 3% (tabs)
BMG (20th-22nd May) – BREX 35%, LAB 18%, LDEM 17%, CON 12%, GRN 8%, ChUK 4%, UKIP 2% (tabs

The broad story across the polls is the same – the Brexit party are ahead, Conservative support has utterly collapsed, the Lib Dems are doing well in the mid-to-high teens, and both Change UK and UKIP have failed to shine. There is more variation in the detail, and particularly in how well or badly Labour are doing. Kantar and Panelbase have them not far behind the Brexit party; Opinium and BMG have them down in the teens, YouGov have them below the Liberal Democrats in third place.

This isn’t an election like 2017 when pollsters took very different approaches and the differences are easy to explain. The polling companies aren’t taking radically different approaches – there are some differences in turnout modelling (BMG and Opinium, for example, are taking only those most certain to vote, which will be boosting the Brexit party and Lib Dems), Kantar are estimating the likely vote who say don’t know based on their demographics and answers to other questions, which explains their comparative low figure for the Brexit party (they’d be on 31% otherwise). And don’t overlook simple things like when the fieldwork was conducted – all the polls have been showing a downwards trend in Labour support, so it may not be co-incidence that the polls from Panelbase & Kantar whose earliest fieldwork is over a week old have higher support for Labour.

The bottom line however is that this is a tricky election. Firstly, turnout for European elections is normally low (and one of the problems with polls in recent years is getting too many of the sort of people who vote, and not enough of those who don’t bother). Secondly, most polling companies rely on some degree to weighting by past general election vote to make sure their samples are representative, as how people voted at previous elections normally correlates pretty well with their current vote. An election like this, when an awful lot of people are not voting for the party that they voted for at the last election, will make those techniques less effective. We shall see on Sunday.

In the meantime, several people have asked me about exit polls tomorrow. There won’t be any. The big, offical BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is only conducted at general elections anyway, but even if they wanted to, they couldn’t do one tomorrow. For the European elections the rules that ban the publication of exit polls until after polls close apply across Europe, so it wouldn’t be legal to public any exit poll until the polls have closed everywhere in the European Union… and some countries won’t finish voting until Sunday night.


1,788 Responses to “European Election polls”

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  1. @davidcarrod

    “It seems to me that all the doom and gloom predictions that Remainers are saying will result from Brexit, will apply equally if Scotland is ever foolish enough to believe they can survive outside the Union.”

    It’s prefectly fine to ask “valid questions” but it is also understandable if others question whether you are really doing that if you use disparaging misogynistic phrases such as “wee Nicola” and conclude with the sentence anove which indicates no answer to your “valid questions” will satisfy you.

    Just a reminder that Scotland has a diverse and successful economy ( its GVA per capita excluding NS oil is the best in the UK after London and SE England). This is reflected in good employment and unemployment figures and its exporting success. Its fiscal balance is mid table amongst UK countries and regions better than NI and Wales, NW England etc and comparable to the W Midlands. It has one of the best educated populations in Europe, extensive and productive natural resources and strong international relationships and branding including an extensive Scottish diaspora. As a member of the EU it would benefit from its unparalleled trading arrangements and negotiating strength as well as freedom of movement. It successfully runs its own legal, education, health and transport systems amongst other things so it is difficult to see why you think a licensing and registration system would somehow be beyond it.

  2. https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1134173890018783232

    If you don’t get the joke check out his tweet video from Kew Gardens.

  3. @ SHEVII – Looks like Hanretty has updated some of his figures. They were estimates and “provisional” and he encourages folks to highlight any seats that look wrong. I’ll copy+paste the data again tomorrow to see if any “big picture” changes.

    Updated version does show LDEM had highest votes in Streatham and you are reading the ChUK on 8.3% correct (again this has changed in the updated version but you are right that it is still the only notable “local” boost – Heidi Allen has 6.8% but her seat is super Remainy and LD had by far the highest votes there)

    Lots of the Scottish seats still look wrong so anyone looking at those should wait until he’s taken a fresh look.

    @ LEFTIELIBERAL – Although we’re on different sides there is much we agree on.

    @ COLIN / Others – New YG poll simply continues the “trend”. I think their last Westminster numbers were from 2weeks ago (link below) so I’ll add the changes and rearrange slightly.

    LDEM 24 (+8)
    LAB 19 (-6)
    Green ? (?)
    ChUK ? (?)

    Sub-total possibly +small?

    BREXIT 22 (+4)
    CON 19 (-6)
    UKIP ? (?)

    Sub-total possibly -small?

    Tough to guess how far this trend goes? Is their a floor on CON or LAB Westminster support?

    I will fully admit I did not expect LAB VI to crumble this far and shift so noticeably to LDEM. I had thought most LAB VI were fully up for the Socialist Revolution but it appears not!

    CON side was to be expected but hard to see how they possibly climb out of the hole May dug for them, not as a united party able to make a decent effort in a GE anyway.

  4. @ ALEC – I guess you missed the bit where I said:

    “I’d be very happy to see them (MPs) give that a go”

    added (MPs) to make it clear who I meant.

    Perhaps the ECJ do say we can submit an equivocal and conditional decision to revoke A50. No need to convince me they just make stuff up that suits them – although not sure Macron+co keen on us messing them around much longer – happy to see MPs give that a go though ;)

    Good luck with that “plan”. I’m certainly ready for a “betrayal” GE where MPs have decided to over rule the “will of the people” but who knows MPs might manage to hold HoC together long enough to actually agree the wording of a new ref, etc. after ECJ have actually agreed a conditional revocation and EU28 have all agreed to allow us the time to hold a new ref (whilst still having all of our rights as an EU member and avoiding any legal challenges the other way).

    All possible but just into far less likely scenarios IMHO but as I said:

    “I’d be very happy to see them give that a go”

    Bon chance ;)

  5. @davidcarrod

    On the specific point of transport licensing and registration systems, this is what the Scottish Government proposed in 2014:

    “Other transport functions are currently reserved to the Westminster Government, and delivered by 13 UK- or GB-wide specialist transport organisations. For a period after independence, the Scottish Government proposes that these organisations continue to provide their services in Scotland
    under arrangements with the Scottish Government. These arrangements, some of which will be transitional, will form part of agreements reached with Westminster. The people of Scotland have contributed to the funding and
    development of these institutions over many years, and continued use of these institutions, for varying periods of time, following independence – with appropriate financial contributions to their administration, along with an equally
    appropriate say in their governance – is the sensible approach to ensuring continuity of service immediately following independence.

    These include the Motoring Services agencies: the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency, Driving Standards Agency, Vehicle and Operator Standards Agency, and the Vehicle Certification Agency. These will initially continue to provide vehicle and driver licensing and testing services to the people of Scotland. However, independence will allow a Scottish parliament to determine the best way to deliver these services in the future.

    The Scottish Government plans to create a new, streamlined Scottish Motor Services Agency, which will bring together the functions of DVLA, DSA, VOSA, and VCA. By the end of the first term of an independent parliament, we will have completed the design and development work, with a view to the Agency
    going live early in the second Parliament.”

  6. Shevii
    A very helpful table of the Eu election results for 2019 and 2014 for all LAs is on the Britain Elects website.

    To save you the trouble of looking up Lambeth, the Lib Dems win at a canter..

    As far as Chukas joining the Lib Dems to try and save their careers, they will have to learn a good deal of humility and metaphorically sacrifice their firstborn on the alter of PR before i would welcome them. Allen and Wollaston show more signs of that than the others.
    I am told the lib Dems threatened Umunna with legal action over something or other a while ago which may not presage a happy marriage

  7. Sounds like tonights YouGov will be interesting.

    The Lib Dems have gone from Mr Bean to Stalin under Sir Vince. Vincemania perhaps?!

  8. David Carrod,

    “It seems to me that all the doom and gloom predictions that Remainers are saying will result from Brexit”

    But they generally aren’t “Doom & Gloom”. That falls into the general category of denigrating anyone h disagrees with you in the Trump/Farage fashion.

    The main lines taken on here and elsewhere on the impact of Brexit are;

    It will have an immediate short term shock on the economy.
    It will damage long term growth.
    The claims that we can do better outside are unfounded.
    The claim that the EU holds us back is unfounded.
    The idea that we don’t have influence and do well from the EU is unfounded
    With clear costs to leaving and no clear benefit it makes little or no sense.
    The vote for Brexit is driven by sentiment and resentment driven by tough times and frustrations with economic challenges which have little to do with the EU.

    Portraying that as people who don’t support brexit being blinkered to the issues with the EU or not caring about the issues we face is misrepresentation, deliberate misrepresentation.

    Claiming that asking serious questions about the plans and prospects for the UK outside the EU or pointing out the difficulties leaving creates as “Doom & Gloom is again deliberate misrepresentation.

    Both also however fit neatly with the “Frustration” narrative;
    the EU struggles to deal with the challenges of the age, so the EU is “Rubbish” and “To Blame”.

    Those who disagree with this claim are the “elite” “out of touch” who can’t “say a bad thing about the EU”

    So we should just “Walk Away”

    And if people question any of this…. Shoot the Messenger!

    Peter.

  9. It may be wishful thinking but the Labour Party is getting to look a bit like the Liberals after WW1…

  10. @ HIRETON – It may surprise you that many Brexiteers think (r)UK has a diverse and successful economy, low unemployment and good finances (in relation to many EZ countries for sure) and would continue to be successful outside of the European Union – good deal or no deal
    (not so keen on a bad deal though and good deal is now looking impossible)

    We’ve had various polls showing Leavers are quite happy for Scotland to become independent.

    If, hopefully when, Scotland becomes independent then what about Wir Shetland? Should be quite simple for them to seek their own sovereign arrangements since they have no land border issue with Scottish mainland.

  11. TRIGUY

    Yep-given that YouGov Poll the temptation to ape the Brexit Party will be enormous.

  12. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “It will damage long term growth.
    The claims that we can do better outside are unfounded.
    The claim that the EU holds us back is unfounded.
    The idea that we don’t have influence and do well from the EU is unfounded”

    Why are advantages to Brexit unfounded, but disadvantages are not?

  13. Andrew

    The aura that surrounded Corbyn after the last GE has long since worn off.

    It won’t return in my opinion.

    He’ll go down in political history as the nearly man.

  14. Here’s a hard truth for many of you- most Remainers are typically left-wing and anti-English, simply wanting to stay in the EU to reduce right-wing England’s power over the UK.

    Sinn Fein
    SNP
    Plaid Cymru
    Lib Dems
    Greens
    Labour

    Spot the pattern?

    Anti-English

  15. ANDREW MYERS

    We are.

    If the voters are still in kamikaze mode when they enter an actual polling booth Westminster will make the new European Parliament look like The Church of England Synod.

  16. Colin

    “will make the new European Parliament look like The Church of England Synod.”

    Wouldn’t the voters in the English polity have had to send the bishops of their Established Church to the EU Parliament to do that?

  17. Given the YOUGOV poll will their be more coverage of the LibDems leadership election with the winner being potentiall PM. Perhaps JO Swinson will win the election but lose her seat to the SNP.
    Anyway interesting putting the YouGov in Electoral Calculus comes up with Con 110/LAb 202 /LibDem119/SNP 55/ BP 141

    Also If votes are fairly 4 way split BP can get near OM with 27% and Lib Dem 29%. Although not sure can make predictions on such volatile swings

  18. Matt126

    “Given the YOUGOV poll will their be more coverage of the LibDems leadership election with the winner being potentiall PM. Perhaps JO Swinson will win the election but lose her seat to the SNP.”

    According to some of the Scotland experts on here, Jo Swinson is vulnerable to a defeat at the SNP given the rise in SNP popularity in recent years, relative to that of the Lib Dems, north of the border.

  19. Matt126

    “will their be more coverage of the LibDems leadership election with the winner being potentiall PM.”

    Should we look forward to the BBC funding that process for the LDs as they plan to do for the Tories?

  20. Brxt,

    “Lib Dems, Greens, Labour

    Spot the pattern? Anti-English

    So 3 parties that got 51% of the 2017 General election vote in England are Anti-English.

    Amazing Analysis!

    Peter.

  21. @ brxt

    “Sinn Fein
    SNP
    Plaid Cymru
    Lib Dems
    Greens
    Labour

    Spot the pattern.

    Anti-english”

    Now this is a joke. Still at least it shows you in your true colours.

  22. Peter

    BRXT is obviously a wind-up merchant. No-one could seriously hold those views. Just ignore him or her.

  23. Hireton

    You missed the subtle clue in BRXT’s comment –

    SPOT the <PATTERN

    Most folk on here will be too young to remember the song that determined his/her belief system.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICkWjdQuK7Q

  24. Norbold,

    Yes it’s nonsense, but illustrating it to others is worthwhile.
    Much of what you are doing when responding is aimed at those reading the exchange not the other poster.

    it’s a bit like the “Sharing a Platform with Terrorist Sympathisers!” argument.

    If you don’t, then all the audience hears, is the Terrorist Sympathiser proposing violence.

    Peter

  25. peter

    “Yes it’s nonsense, but illustrating it to others is worthwhile.”

    I think you hugely underestimate other posters.

  26. Oldnat,,

    Actually I thought it was this one;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN7r0Rr1Qyc

    Peter.

  27. @Trevor

    I think those 4 steps are perhaps the most likely route to revocation … also possible that the vote at step 4 fails and we leave with no deal, of course. Could also be a redo of the Cooper Bill to force an unwilling PM to ask for a particular extension first? Labour I think might prefer that to a revocation as easier for their MPs to compromise on despite it not really solving anything.

    @Alec

    I think there are two problems with a second referendum.

    One is that none of the outcomes of a second referendum are any good.

    1) It also votes to Leave (I think this is probably the most likely outcome, based on current polling evidence and likely campaign strategies on both sides). This shouldn’t change the mind of any MP who thought Brexit on the offered terms was such a bad idea that the consequences of doing it were worse for the country than the consequences of ignoring a referendum. So if it does break a Parliamentary deadlock, it’s only because there’s a subset of MPs who think Brexit is worse than ignoring one referendum, but not as bad as ignoring two referenda.

    (The SNP of course can consistently take a stance that they’re not ignoring the first one either by voting Remain – but few other MPs have that luxury)

    2) It votes to Remain, but by a very narrow margin, smaller than that Leave won the first one by. Leave claim a win on goal difference, Remain claim a win on away goals, we’re no further on. Best of 3?

    3) It votes to Remain by a slightly wider margin. Based on current polling, what proportion of Leave voters who wouldn’t have viewed a Parliamentary revoke as democratic (which, I agree, it would only be in the narrowest constitutional sense) would accept a second ref as democratic?

    The other is that none of the plausible possibilities on offer for the vote are any good.

    1) If it’s “No Deal” vs “Remain” that’s very much a “double-or-nothing” strategy for Remain. It looks a lot safer to just take the deal, and if No Deal does win a lot of remainers are going to be very angry with their side’s politicians for letting it on the ballot.

    2) If it’s “Deal” vs “Remain” then it’s rightly going to be viewed as a stitch-up by the “no deal” leavers and that really won’t help the democratic legitimacy arguments.

    3) If it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” then it might actually be acceptable to leavers, but I can’t see the remain side accepting it and they’re the ones who want another referendum.

    4) If it’s a straight re-run of “Leave” versus “Remain” then it doesn’t actually solve the “what sort of Leave” question which is deadlocking Parliament.

    5) Any complex multi-stage or AV or whatever option lets the people setting it up basically pick the final two options, so it’s one of the first four with a bit more stitch-up feeling to it.

    Those problems I think are completely insoluble when it comes to getting votes for a concrete proposition in the current Parliament – but if we have a GE that gives a majority for something, the nature of the problem is probably significantly changed anyway.

    How – practically – do those get solved so that we can have a second referendum, without a preceding GE, in a timescale that the EU would be willing to grant a further extension for. What configuration of referendum question and details cuts through that?

  28. @ brxt

    @Brxt

    “Sinn Fein
    SNP
    Plaid Cymru
    Lib Dems
    Greens
    Labour

    Spot the pattern.

    Anti-english”

    Any evidence that Lib Dems, Greens, Labour are “anti-English”, when England is where they have their strongest support?

  29. I love this analysis by Owen Jones, in the Guardian, of Labour’s current problems:

    “Labour’s hopes of securing the sizeable majority it needs to enact a transformative agenda are uncertain.”

  30. I don’t claim to have thought this through! but, if the current Lab/Con MPs from the English & Welsh polity in Westminster believe that they will be shafted anyway by the incoming BxP/LD revolution, this could be their last chance to influence or decide anything.

    If they consider that they have no political future anyway. maybe a majority will decide to end the entire clusterbourach by ensuring that a Revoke letter is sent – then walking away from politics altogether.

  31. @TW
    Many people I know are much more absolutist about remain than I am. Had May reached out to the other parties after the referendum and we ended with something like Norway+ as an agreed option in Parliament, I would have accepted it. What we got instead was a deal that was way short of majority support.

    IMO it would not have helped May if she had not called the 2017 GE as there were still enough ERG members to deny her a majority.

    I have Leavers amongst my close friends and extended family, so have had to deal with the fallout of the referendum (we haven’t fallen out over it, but it means that there are subjects we don’t talk about). I still consider myself as about 8.5/10 on the EU.

  32. @ALEC

    “Of course, this would be more delay, possibly three years more, but who cares? May has wasted the last three years, so we have no real choice but to reset the clock again and have another go. getting this right is so much more important that getting it quick.”

    Keep kicking it further down the road until people forget there was a referendum? Don’t think so.

    Cut

    Foreign Aid £12bn
    EU payments £15bn

    There’s £27bn a year right there and i’ve barely started

  33. @trevors – “@ ALEC – I guess you missed the bit where I said:

    “I’d be very happy to see them (MPs) give that a go”

    added (MPs) to make it clear who I meant….”

    I did see that, but if you are now claiming that what you meant was the political ramifications of trying to revoke A50 by remain MPs, then that just makes your original post completely incoherent.

    What you actually posted was a quote from and a link to an official press statement regarding the ECJ judgement, which is about the legality of the revoke process, not anything to do with UK internal politics.

    No matter – I think I understand what you were trying to say, even if you don’t, and I suspect I agree with you. Revoking is politically very difficult to do without a second referendum backing it. My plan – revoke and reset – is (in political terms at least) decidedly suboptimal, but that’s because of where we are now, after three wasted years. I’m almost 100% certain no serious politician will propose this approach.

  34. Peter Cairns

    If our resident idiot is real rather than a trolling caricature, your idea of the song that influenced her/him becomes rather more likely.

  35. Times confirms YG as LD 24% : BxP 22% : Con & Lab 19% each.

  36. New thread

  37. @Brxt – re “Anti-English”

    Anti-English is an anagram of Li Tiansheng, who was a Hong Kong born Chinese footballer who played in China’s 2-0 defeat to Great Britain in the first round of the 1936 Summer Olympics.

    This probably doesn’t make any sense to you, but then, neither did your post to me, so I guess we’re evens.

  38. R&D
    I think the single most hapless thing the Labour Party has done in the last few days was expelling Alistair Campbell for voting Lib Dem when many of their members and more than half their 2017 voters had just voted for other Parties.

    “S§d off we dont want your sort” was the message, loud and clear

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