The Sunday Mirror apparently has a new ICM poll with headline voting intentions, with changes from the ICM/Guardian poll taken at the end of last week, of CON 35%(nc), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 17%(-1).

This means Labour’s lead is down two points from last week, apparently (and somewhat bizarrely) to the benefit of others – though I expect it’s far less straightforward than that and is due to churn between parties, won’t votes and falling Labour certainty to vote. More to the point, the two point change isn’t necessarily significant at all.

It shouldn’t be a particular surprise to find Labour down slightly anyway, the last polls were taken in the days immediately following Gordon Brown becoming PM when he was receiving blanket coverage on the television, and that initial publicity burst at least should have begun to subside. It is still difficult to say what the future holds. Still, for what little it is worth it is our first indication of the direction of movement. It does also suggest a continuing squeeze for the Lib Dems – 17% equals the lowest level of support they’ve recorded in an ICM poll since the election, and is from the pollster who normally gives them their highest figures.


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