The Times have released a new YouGov poll of party members – the report is here and the tables here.

Theresa May’s time is essentially up. Party members are normally the loyalist of the loyal, but even here there are few good words to be said. Only 20% of her own members think she is doing well and 79% think she should resign. Asked about her record, 25% of Tory party members think she has been a poor Prime Minister, 38% a terrible Prime Minister.

Let us therefore move swiftly onto her replacement. The obvious frontrunner with party members remains Boris Johnson. He is seen as a good leader by 64% to 31%, and is the first choice of 39% of party members, easily ahead of his rivals. He has the highest positive ratings on every measure YouGov asked about – 77% of party members think he has a likeable personality, 70% that he would be able to win a general election, 69% that he shares their outlook, 67% that he is up to the job, 69% that he would be a strong leader, 61% that he would be competent.

Johnson is very clearly in pole position – yet in past Conservative leadership elections the clear early frontrunner has not necessarily gone on to win (and indeed, there is no guarantee that Johnson will even reach the final round or get to be voted on by party members). One can recall the time when Michael Portillo was the obvious frontrunner to succeed William Hague, or David Davis the obvious frontrunner to succeed Michael Howard.

Looking at the rest of the field, Dominic Raab is in second place in first preferences on 13%. As the other candidate to have resigned from the cabinet – and likely to be see as a “true Brexiteer” by members – he comes closest to Johnson in the head-to-head match ups and beats ever other candidate in head-to-head figures. Considering he has a substantially lower profile than Johnson, it is a positive finding.

Of the Brexiteers in the cabinet, Michael Gove is the second best known candidate after Johnson, but polls badly on many counts. While most see him as competent and up to the job, he is not seen as capable of winning an election or having a likeable personality. Andrea Leadsom is seen as likeable, but not as an election winner. Penny Mordaunt receives high don’t know figures on most scores.

Looking at the candidates who backed Remain in the referendum, Sajid Javid seems best placed candidate from that wing of the party. In first preferences he is in joint third with Michael Gove, and in the head to head scores he would beat Hunt, Hancock, Mordaunt or Stewart (and tie with Leadsom). He scores well on being likeable, competent and up to the job, but his figures are more mixed on being seen as an election winner.

These are, of course, only the opinions of party members. While they will have the final say, they do not get a say on who makes the shortlist. That is down to MPs, and as things stand there is very scant information on who is doing well or badly among that electorate.


955 Responses to “YouGov polling of Tory party members”

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  1. In the end our problem is not Brexit as the TREVOR WARNE has seemingly alluded to we have made decisions that have not helps ourselves LEE MOORE treaties on free market missed the huge part that Government played in the market place, it is government regulation that vaulted London and stamped on the North East as an example not the EU, We as a nation made a huge number of decisions and whilst I think leaving the EU is not a good idea what I hope that it brings is a lesson to us that we should direct our energies to the political system that screws us all rather than blamestroming things that are clearly irrelevant to the issue

  2. New Fred.

  3. @Tonybtg
    “My prediction is that when it all starts to unravel it will be hard to find anyone who owns up to ever voting leave.”
    To be fair, I did see a video of a Brexit candidate confident it will all come right economically… in 30 years.
    I cordially invite all who post on UKPR to share my 97th birthday with me. The GM Budweisers (not from foreign Budvar) are on me

  4. @Tonybtg
    “My prediction is that when it all starts to unravel it will be hard to find anyone who owns up to ever voting leave.”
    To be fair, I did see a video of a Brexit candidate confident it will all come right economically… in 30 years.
    I cordially invite all who post on UKPR to share my 97th birthday with me. The GM Budweisers (not from foreign Budvar) are on me

  5. In a strange way a Labour win at Peterborough would be good for the Conservatives as well as stopping BP momentum, It would mean no BP incumbent to fight at the next election splitting the vote and giving Labour a better chance

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