Today’s Sunday papers have the first polls conducted since the local elections, from Opinium and ComRes.

Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from late April. Full tables are here.

ComRes for BrexitExpress have voting intentions of CON 19%(-4), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 14%(+7), BREX 20%(+6), GRN 5%(+2), ChUK 7%(-2), UKIP 3%(-2). Fieldwork appears to be all on Thursday, and changes are since mid-April.

Both polls have Labour and the Conservatives rapidly shedding support, with support growing for the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party. I suspect we are seeing a combination of factors at work here, most obviously there is the continuing collapse in Conservative support over Brexit, a trend we’ve been seeing since the end of March, with support moving to parties with a clearer pro-Brexit policy. Originally that favoured UKIP too, now it is almost wholly going to the Brexit party.

Secondly there is the impact of the local elections and the Liberal Democrat successes there. For several years the Lib Dems seemed moribund and struggled to be noticed. The coverage of their gains at the local elections seems to have given them a solid boost in support, more so than the other anti-Brexit parties – for now at least, they seem to be very much alive & well again.

Third is the impact of the European elections. People are obviously more likely to vote for smaller parties in the European elections and in current circumstances obviously appear more willing to lend their vote to a different party in protest over Brexit. To some degree this will be influencing other voting intention figures as well, so I would treat Westminster voting intention figures with some scepticism in the run up to the European elections (and probably in the immediate aftermath as well, when those parties who do well will likely recieve a further boost in support).

In short, these are startling results – but we have seen startling results before (look at the polls at the height of SDP support, or just after the expenses scandal broke, or during Cleggmania). These are indeed very unusual results – the combined level of Con-Lab support in these polls are some of the very lowest we’ve seen, the Conservative share in the ComRes poll almost their lowest ever (I can find only a single Gallup poll with a lower figure, from back in 1995). What we cannot tell at the moment is whether this portends a serious readjustment of the parties, or whether things will return to more familar patterns once the European elections have passed, the Conservatives have a new leader and (assuming it ever happens) Brexit is in some way settled.

Both polls also had voting intention figures for the European Parliament elections

Opinium Euro VI – CON 11%, LAB 21%, LDEM 12%, BREX 34%, GRN 8%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 4%
ComRes Euro VI – CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, BREX 27%, GRN 8%, ChUK 6%, UKIP 3%

Both have the Brexit party ahead, though they are doing considerably better with Opinium than with ComRes. In both cases the Liberal Democrats have recieved a post-local election boost, putting them above the Conservatives in European voting intentions.


760 Responses to “New Opinium and ComRes polls”

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  1. @ EOTW – Every Remainer I know (small sample I admit) is voting Green even where they know its a “wasted” vote.

    In London, SE.Eng and SW.Eng they have a decent shot and won 1seat in each in 2014. Also it doesn’t appear to me from current polling that there is any clear tactical advantage in boosting LDEM in those 3 constituencies.

    That might change of course and “useful” x-breaks by constituency would help.

    Elsewhere in England is a different matter and in most other cases it is looking like LDEM is the “correct” tactical vote to secure a single MEP rather than get zero due to split vote. Even in these cases though % will also matter and it’s likely “Remain” will be focussing on summing up the %s as they will not get close to BXP in seats (assuming folks place LAB and CON as “BrINO”)

    Wales and Scotland more complex for the NATS reason and also the usual D’Hondt risks of “vote stacking” and “split votes”. LDEM+Green+ChUK combined could probably take a 2nd seat from BXP in Wales but LDEM v Green is not totally clear. Similar chance for a “combined” seat in Scotland but the final seat there has every party in the running.

    Although tactically I’d like Remainers to vote ChUK and split the Remain vote I find them abhorrent and will set aside my partisan bias to hope no-one votes for them – anywhere, EVER!

    To continue to stand as an MP in a seat you won under false pretences is an outrage to democracy and an insult to those who voted for them.

    Thinking they could destroy LDEM and “fill” a non-existant Centre-Remain “gap” was incredibly stup!d – and then telling people of the “cunning plan”?!?!?

    Well, they all deserve to be removed as MPs asap and allow their constituents to chose whether they want them or a new MP to represent them. If they had any deceny or respect for democracy they would resign as MPs and hold by-elections rather than cling on only to be removed by a huge AB-ChUK vote at the next GE.

    Wollaston could and IMHO should be first to beg LDEM to take her – she could probably win a by-election standing as LDEM backed “Remain Alliance”

    Allen similar but she is supposed to be “leader” so a bit more tricky for her.

    Soubs is a gonna no matter what and good riddance there.

    I’m not so aware of the characters on the xLAB side. Leslie and Umunna’s “egos” seem too big for them to “see the light”. Some of the others seem like decent people but I don’t know enough about them.

  2. I thought this was an interesting section of Peter Kellner’s commentary on the most recent YouGov polling on Brexit:-

    “This relates to a wider point. It has become commonplace to ascribe the leave victory in 2016 to the votes of working-class Labour supporters. This is misleading. Most leave voters live in Conservative constituencies. The Tory shires mattered more than Labour’s industrial heartlands.

    A YouGov analysis of more than 25,000 voters suggests the following division of leave voters in the referendum, linked to the 2017 election result.

    • Middle-class leave voters: Conservative 5.6 million; Labour 1.6 million.

    • Working-class leave voters: Conservative 4.4 million; Labour 2.2 million. (A few of the remaining 3.6 million leave voters supported smaller parties; most did not vote in 2017.)

    So the largest block of leave voters were middle-class Conservatives, followed by working-class Conservatives. Just one in eight leave voters was a working-class Labour supporter. To be sure, had even half of these 2.2 million voters backed remain, the result of the referendum would be different. But to suggest that the referendum’s 17.4 million leave voters were dominated by working-class Labour supporters is simply wrong.”

    Myths usually dissolve in the face of facts but, as the saying goes, “A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth can get its boots on ”

    That last paragraph is mine, by the way, not Kellner’s.

    :-)

  3. @ OLDNAT – I’m sure once you succeed in turning Scotland into the USSR[1] then the BBC will be banned and only “party” news will be permitted with sponsorship from Salmond’s friends at RT ;)

    https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/

    USSR = Utopian Scottish Socialist Republic

  4. @Rosie and Daisie @JiB is seriously misrepresenting/misunderstanding the Welsh figures as however inefficiently they are dispersed, the Remain vote is clearly, comfortably ahead of Leave. And they idea that Remain areas are all metropolitan is bizzare; he lives in one FFS and it wasn’t even close

  5. @ Old Nat

    Treachery of the worst kind! Stephen Moffatt, a Scot, on the BBC has just nominated Scotland to go into Room 101, fortunately Frank Skinner was worried about receiving an amorous Glasgow Kiss the next time he visited so he selected something else.

  6. Good evening all from a warm and sunny Winchester.

    PETE B
    I found this interesting

    https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/what_europeans_really_feel_the_battle_for_the_political_system_eu_election

    It shows a lot of voters all round the EU expect it to collapse within 20 years
    _________________________

    20 years!!! Well I suppose all good things come to those who wait.

  7. CROSSBAT

    Interesting figures you’ve posted. I’ve never doubted that any part of the Labour vote voted in a majority in favour of Brexit, however the fact remains most Labour constituency’s actually did vote to leave the morphing and integration project.

    Over to you ol Corby.

  8. Big BoJo puts his name in the hat for the next PM….

    Looking forward to seeing the next Scottish Independence VI

  9. @ALEC

    As it happens, UK wide, the 2014 EPs gave Con + UKIP 54%, while LD, Green PC + SNP garnered 17% all told.

    A shade under 50% rather than 54%? UKIP won with 27.something (GB) and CONs were 3rd on about 23% (GB)?

    The polls seem to be suggesting that the combined anti EU vote has fallen by around 10 – 12% or a fifth

    The (GB) polls since the LE seem to show CON + UKIP + BXP on about 45-46% average, much less drop than you are seeing, but yes still down on last time.

    while the committed pro EU vote has surged by a factor of around 250%.

    Can you explain that number please? A surge of “around 250%” would take the overtly pro-EU parties to around 60% total polling, when since the LEs they are averaging half that. Again, still up significantly of course.

    Indeed, I do wonder whether the fact that UKIP won the EPs last time around really has sunk in with the media.

    Yeah, I’m pretty sure they mentioned it at the time ;-)

    Come results night, there is a reasonable chance that the real story is going to be one of a massive surge in the pro EU parties and a falling back of the leave supporting groups, although it’s a fair chance that the media message gets obsessed by the Farage winning story.

    This is a great point – if the polling averages we’re seeing now were to be replicated in the vote then what you predict is likely to be spot on. The Remain parties would have gone up quite a bit, the Leave parties would have gone down a bit, and that would be seen by those looking for a pro-Remain angle as clear evidence that the country has moved towards Remain.

    On the other hand, those looking for a pro-Leave angle would point out that the clearly pro-Leave parties would have beaten the clearly pro-Remain parties by about 34% to 31% (GB) and would cite that as evidence of the country reaffirming the 2016 result.

    And those of us not looking for an angle would probably point out that the 35% voting for the parties whose position is unclear and/or widely disputed simply reaffirms all the polling data from the last year showing there’s often a clear majority against everything and rarely one in favour of anything, and so nothing has changed.

  10. @Colin

    “Sensational. It really is”

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1128991403244236800

    European Parliament voting intention (Wales):

    Leave
    BREX: 33%

    Remain
    PC: 16%+ LDEM: 10%+ GRN: 8% + CHUK: 4% = 38%

    Undecided
    LAB: 18% +CON: 7% =25%

    vs referendum
    52.4% leave, 47.5 remain

    I agree, it looks like Wales is moving strongly in the direction of remain.

  11. It’s an open question as to whether all Trevors are fools – or just the one that posted at 8:23.

  12. ON

    In Warne World I think the 8.23 counted as brilliantly witty.

    It’s the way he tells ’em.

  13. @RICHARD

    As someone who grew up in Wales, the concept of LAB and CON being at 25% between them is… incredibly surreal.

    It was 45% in the Euros last time and *that* was a shocking result.

  14. Trevors,

    The interesting thing is that some of the Leavers i know are voting Lib Dem (and even putting letters in envelopes for them)

  15. LL – did Mason say when Corbyn should come off the fence? Cant change tack now before the EP Poll this has to be first week after the recess.

  16. @Edgeofreason

    I don’t think CON or LAB need to be that worried. This EU poll has turned into a second referendum, so people have to choose a clear leave or remain party to make their voice heard.

    I’d really like to have 4 or 5 parties all possibly winning, I am a firm believer that competition is good and raises standards. Imagine parties actually having to offer something rather than say ‘vote for me because the other bunch are worse’.

    However there have been too many of these moments that then dissolved months later for me to get my hopes up again….

  17. Election Maps UK
    ?

    @ElectionMapsUK
    5m
    5 minutes ago

    More
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 30% (-1)
    CON: 27% (-2)
    LDM: 18% (+10)
    BXP: 10% (+4)
    GRN: 6% (+2)
    UKIP: 3% (-4)
    CHUK: 3% (-5)

    Via @BMGResearch, 7-10 May.
    Changes w/ 2-5 Apr.

  18. @JIM JAM

    I’m curious – you seem to have confidence in the importance of the exact timing of when Lab declare officially for a second ref being officially official policy, but… why are you confident that has any bearing at all in the world of actual voters? Compared to say people who are moving to LibDems or Green or SNP or BXP because those parties have a clear position on whether they actually want to leave or not?

    After three years of constantly playing both sides, why do you think saying “we’ll definitely have a second referendum, but we don’t know what on or even which way we’d vote in it” will make any difference at all to how non-political obsessives see Labour’s position?

  19. Baz in Wales

    Thanks for the BMG numbers.

    I note that in their write up they say “This month’s poll also sees the permanent introduction of Change UK and The Brexit Party to BMG’s main voting intention tracker.”

    I suspect that permanent may turn out to have been an exaggeration.

  20. OldNat

    “It’s an open question as to whether all Trevors are fools – or just the one that posted at 8:23.”

    it is clinically proven that colours can be confused, among them green and red. Imagine the confusion of these and more colours are in stripes on a sheet when TW looks at it.

    That would require a very long comment to counterbalance the “something” with confounding.

  21. HAL
    “Parliament has never even voted for brexit, still less given any undertakings about the referendum being final. On the contrary, it was clearly stated that it was advising Parliament only.”

    Yeah technically sure. I said there is no legal impediment on Parliament.

    But the Government said that. And Parliament voted overwhelmingly for a government bill. And overwhelming against a two state vote.

    When remainers argue therefore that a two stage vote is consistent with that they are transparently replete with ordure. And I say that as a remain voter. I see thorough it. Do you really think your opponents wont? Delusional.

  22. Regarding CHUK it was a reaction to perceived extremes on both sides of the political debate and was designed to create a centrist voice. It ignored the fact that the Lib Dems were supposed to fill that position but they lost VI after coalition. It now seems the Lib Dems are now awakening from the slumber with good local election results giving them great momentum going into the Euros.

  23. @RICHARD

    Yes, I tend to agree with you there. Competition is good in politics, and in Wales in particular we’ve seen the effects of long-term complacency about voter loyalty.

    The flipside is of course that if you assume they will never desert you, and they do, and then you’re further reliant on the assumption that they’ll obviously come back once the immediate issue/crisis has been navigated… that’s taking two risks when the first has already failed.

    Radical polls and even radical results happen from time to time, and often they are blips. But major, structural change does happen from time to time, and it is always preceded by radical results and (these days) radical polls.

    It seems most likely that we’ll end up back at something similar to the status quo after this, but the idea that we’re maybe somewhere between the throw of a die or the cut of a card from witnessing the beginning of the end of a major party is pretty exciting all the same.

  24. Looking at the tables for that Welsh poll is also VERY interesting

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9qcd2nbbdy/PlaidCymruResults_190515_EuropeanElection_W.pdf

    Brexit party – 39% Male, 27% Female

    The chaps love Nigel, the women hate him – all the recent polls show that.

    Don’t know – 19% voted remain, 9% voted leave.
    Don’t know – 22% female, 10% male

    But likelihood to vote the same for male and female.

    Certain to vote – Tories and Lab 66/67%
    Certain to vote – Brexit/LD/PC 77-80%

    Yes, this vote is the second referendum. And the Brexit party is going to do worse than the polls are saying once those undecided remain voters decide which party to back.

    And Brexit is already down vs UKIP 2014.

    So what is this Brexit surge all the papers are talking about?

    I think the news next Sunday is going to be about a swing to remain, the main parties doing even worse that expected as their voters stay home, and the Brexit party doing worse than UKIP in 2014, as the polls are overstating the Brexit party by filtering out the ‘don’t knows’ who are mostly remain.

  25. @STATGEEK

    “That you think Hammond and Grieve are too liberal says a lot. From theyworkforyou”

    “Liberal” was admittedly the wrong word. Pathetic, spineless, weak cowards was effectively what I meant (you can see why I used the term “liberal”).

    You don’t want wimps running the country, you want fighters. People who have guts and courage.

  26. Watching the beeb tonight and we do in fact seem to have a “remain” party in the UK. Not a second ref party. Not a special status for one part of the country party. A remain party. Pity most of us can’t vote SDLP.

  27. EOR, I am not oblivious to what you are saying and how following the course set out at last years conference is damaging Labour in the short term. The main reason for delay ultimately, though, is HOC arithmetic as,stating the obvious, there has to be 4 (since TIggers) more Tory MPs willing to back a ref 2 than Labour ones rebel against it and this has been 20-30 short for many months.

    To minimize Labour rebels and max Tory MPs support ref 2 has to be when all other realistic options have been exhausted and clearly so hence to talks charade.

    There will come a point when even if the proposition can’t pass that Labour will move to outright advocacy in order to position themselves for the next GE, something the LDs and Greens could do ages ago as they have no ability to deliver in the current HOC and don’t have to think about parliamentary arithmetic.

    So – Yes, Labour been hurt by taking its time but as I see it they had little choice in reality. If Starmer is going along with this strategy and he has without fanfare got McDonnell on board I am confident that this gives it the best chance of success.

  28. @BRXT

    you are roderick spode and i claim my £5.00

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roderick_Spode

  29. @HAL

    “Parliament has never even voted for brexit, still less given any undertakings about the referendum being final. On the contrary, it was clearly stated that it was advising Parliament only.”

    And that’s why all you Remainers were balling your eyes out on 24th June 2016, because it was “clearly advisory”?

    Hillarious

  30. @EoR – I was a bit out. EP 2014 and the BBC had UKIP 27.49% and Con 23.93%. so that would be 51.5% give or take. Regarding the drop, I quickly scanned back and the first UK poll I found had the drop at just over 10%, but I may have added numbers in haste.

    Re the 250% increase for full remain parties, yes – my mistake. I meant around 250% of the 2014 total, not a 250% increase.

  31. Richard

    “Don’t know – 22% female, 10% male”

    I wouldn’t make too much out of that. For whatever reason it happens [1] Anthony has pointed out previously that every poll shows more women than men reluctant to commit to a definite opinion.

    [1] My own theory is that more men than women are opinionated souls, who are always more ready to commit (except to their female partner, of course).

  32. @ Rosie & Daisie
    “Gosh, you never weary of your childish, tired old cliches do you?
    If you’ve got a grown-up point to make then why don’t you just make it???”
    Let’s just wait and see who’s throwing their toys out of their political prams after the 23rd?

  33. @ALEC

    Thanks for clarifying – I wanted to make sure we were talking the same party combinations etc, especially given all the changes from last time!

    I was curious what you think to my point too – that if the result were along the lines of current polls then it would be spun (with confidence and belief) three different ways and we’d be no further forward than we were?

  34. BXRT

    “balling your eyes out”

    What an odd phrase to use.

    Eyeballs are “balls”, whether in or out – that’s why that term is used to describe them.

  35. @Brxt

    “You don’t want wimps running the country, you want fighters.”

    Perhaps another wrong word?

    I want thinkers. People who make the correct decisions. That’s what they’re paid for. Not to react the way the plebs do. Not to be populist or divisive. People who are shining examples.

    Maybe I expect too much.

  36. Statgeek

    I also want a leader who has self-doubts (“imposter syndrome”) – not some arrogant prat who is supremely confident that they (and only they) can lead the people to a glorious future.

  37. Exploring the role of gender voting in more detail

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/women-men-and-the-2017-general-election-by-jane-green-and-chris-prosser/#.XN3k3HdFw2w

    A really good article showing how women have been turned off by Nigel for many years now, but old men love him, and the impact that had in 2017 with the unwinding of the UKIP vote. (which is now being wound back)

    Also discusses the role of women undecideds making up their minds as part of the reason for the Labour surge between the 2017 election being called and voting day.

    Watch the undecided women is the key lesson…they do vote.

  38. @Oldnat

    “I wouldn’t make too much out of that. For whatever reason it happens”

    I agree it always happens, but I think we should think about it, as if those undecideds are primarily women, and women are voting differently to men, then that is a source of polling error if they are merely ignored in the top line figures?

    Do the polling companies still weight undecideds to prior vote? If they do, and its a situation like we have now where people are moving en mass to different parties that would then be another reason for error?

  39. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-leapfrog-labour-as-tories-trail-in-euro-polls-pnclfvm7d

    Leave
    Brexit 35

    Remain
    Lib Dem 16 + Green 10 + Change 5 + SNP/PC 3? = 34

    Undecided
    Labour 15 + Tory 9 = 24

    Leave lead declines again, main parties continue to be squeezed. Tories reach single digits!

  40. Richard
    “Imagine parties actually having to offer something rather than say ‘vote for me because the other bunch are worse’.”

    That’s exactly what TBP are doing. They have a positive vision which many people will vote for. It makes a change to having to vote for the least damaging party which is usually the case.
    ————————————————
    Statgeek
    “I want thinkers. People who make the correct decisions. That’s what they’re paid for. Not to react the way the plebs do. Not to be populist or divisive. People who are shining examples.”

    Can you name any like that who achieved high office from the last 40 years say?

  41. I am having a real hard time understanding the polling numbers in the EU election.

    In the most recent English Local Government elections the Parties ran the following percentage of candidates for the seats and won the following percentage of votes:

    Conservative 96%/31.4%
    Labour 77%/26.6%
    Liberal Democrat 53%/16.8%
    Independent/Residents Associations – 11.5% of the vote
    Green 30%/9.2%
    UKIP 16%/4.5%

    So the Lib Dems get 16.8% of the votes running for half the seats and the Greens obtain 9.2% running in 30% of the seats.

    There is something whacky with the pollsters portraying that the Lib Dems and Green will obtain a lower vote share than they did in the local elections.

    Lets look at just two regions for the Greens and the percentage of the vote they obtained in the local government elections:

    Northwest:

    St Helen’s 25.1%
    Lancaster 22%
    Knowlsley 20.9%
    Wirral 17%
    Liverpool 13.4%
    Manchester 13%
    Trafford 12.6%
    Cheshire West and Chester 7.9%

    East:

    Norwich 30%
    Babergh 23.3%
    East Suffolk 22%
    Cambridge 15%
    Breckland 7.1%
    King’s Lynn and West Norfolk 4.4%

    Anyone got an explanation as the above results were achieved under FPTP, whereas the EU elections are a proportional voting proposition so the vote should rise not shrink for Lib Dems and Greens as they have access to 100% of the voters not half and 30% as they did in the local government elections.

  42. Canada,
    Greens and Lib Dems mainly stand where they campaign hard on local issues for local elections. Those votes do not bear much relevance to a Euro election. Where I worked for a Lib Dem gain from Labour with 45% of the vote in Kirklees, our surveys show that about half of our local vote comes from Leavers. A different group of people will vote Lib Dem in the Euro Elections

  43. There have been one or two posts recently complaining about the ignorance of voters (R&D) and talking of ‘plebs’ (Statgeek). I may have missed others. Though I deplore the attitude, how about this as a solution?

    It would be politically impossible to take away universal suffrage, so how about giving everybody one vote, but others could be earned. Others might have different ideas how this could be done, but here’s my suggestion:

    1 extra vote for passing a simple political test as R&D suggested.
    1 extra vote if you are in full employment or have retired after having made (say) 40 years’ NI contributions.
    1 extra vote for owning non-mortgaged property (because you own a bit of the country).

  44. Richard,

    That appears to be the latest Yougov that is dribbling out. Big sample, so the cross-breaks should be interesting. Seems within MOE of the last one, but at last the Lib Dems get a headline from a poll.
    (On R4 earlier they had two experts on comparing the success of the Brexit party (currently up a few on UKIP last time, not +33 or whatever) with the failure of Chuka, but failed to mention the Lib Dems except as “even the Lib Dems seem to be getting some benefit”

    The Euro election is being treated as a by-election and the Lib Dems just moved into second place. Good stuff! “Only the Lib Dems can wipe the smile off Farage’s face”

  45. @PeteB

    “Can you name any like that who achieved high office from the last 40 years say?”

    Not without the forum going into meltdown as each gives their opinion on who they think best qualifies, and as we know, it can’t be non-partisan.

    Incidentally, what made leaders prior to 1979 so special? (rhetorical question) :D

  46. Time to revisit a comment I made on the 5th May. Here it is verbatim:

    “I think I might be the first to say this, but if events don’t change much in the next 3 weeks, and Lab and Con keep procrastinating, then I suspect that they won’t even be competing for second place in percentage terms in the EP election. I can imagine BXP first at 30+, and Lab and Con on about the same in the low teens, no idea which will be higher. And either LD or Green beating them, most likely LD, but Greens might get close. Anyone else thinking like me?

    May 5th, 2019 at 1:13 pm”

    Maybe I was being a little too conservative in my assessment. In my defence, Lab were still in the 20s in the polls at that point, and Con were still third. I’ll be looking at this again when we get the results.

  47. @PeteB

    RE: Plebs. I’m a pleb. I have no party membership or affiliation, so I’m actually a pleb with a modicum of ‘no dog in the race’, although I do have one or two political objectives that I’m inclined to see happen (it won’t be down to me though).

    I used the word ‘pleb’ to differentiate between the thinkers and the crowd. Pick your phrase. The sweaty masses. The revolting peasants. The people that politicians need one month in 60. In short, the people that are react more readily to event, than stop and consider who is saying something and why (which separates some plebs from others, but they’re still all plebs). Non-politicians, if you like.

    That’s not to say that many politicians are reactionary, non-thinking and some are downright stupid sometimes. It was a catch-all term for voters that get emotive first and think second. It doesn’t make them stupid. They’re just led by their emotions more than others.

    RE: Your Extra votes plan:

    Nope. That way lies the system of ‘some pigs are more equal than others’.

    “1 extra vote for passing a simple political test as R&D suggested.”

    So the less politically inclined get stuffed for not being boring enough, and some of the less mentally gifted get stuffed for not having the patience or grasp of the test material. They can however work and pay tax. Sounds fair.

    “1 extra vote if you are in full employment or have retired after having made (say) 40 years’ NI contributions.”

    Thatcher’s lackeys win, and the miners don’t ever get an extra vote. In that way, politicians can effectively prevent the ‘wrong people’ from getting extra votes by rendering them unemployed, if they can manufacture such a scenario.

    In addition, there will be a hundred loop holes to make a mess of NI contributions and the right to extra votes. Just no no no no. You trust any politician to play by the rules?

    “1 extra vote for owning non-mortgaged property (because you own a bit of the country).”

    So you don’t get that vote until you’re probably in your 40s, or rich / lucky. Shame that those in council houses and renting from private landlords lose out. They presumably don’t matter?

    It sounds like you want folk that have been unlucky in life financially to get less political voting power than others. Those with patchy work records, or council house owners, or the young.

    Presumably the test will be easy enough for the average ‘pleb’, so any or all of this forum ought to pass it. So we all get 2 votes, and I guess most of us here have mortgage-free property status, given the average on here seems to be 50-plus. And I’ll wager that to qualify for the 40-year NI, you’ll have to be at least 56 years old.

    So to sum up, a politically active pensioner (or near pension), that was never/rarely out of work in the 70s, 80s, and 90s, and had the luck to buy their own home, and not have it repossessed.

    Just out of interest. On your idea, how many votes do you get?

    :D

  48. Allan Christie,
    ” however the fact remains most Labour constituency’s actually did vote to leave the morphing and integration project.”

    The yougov numbers quoted above said most working class people who voted leave were already con voters, and the second largest group seemed to be normally non voters. labour only came third. The implication must be that athough you are calling these labour constituencies, actually it was the people in them who do not support labour who voted leave. In particular it was the people who do not normally vote who flipped the result.

    Pete B.
    “It shows a lot of voters all round the EU expect it to collapse within 20 years.”

    It also shows up to 51% (depending on age group and country) expect a war between EU countries within 10 years. The minimum score was 17%. That seems remarkably high, if you think about it.

    In general, the younger you are the more likely you thought a war is. I wonder if that is connected to UK youth being more pro EU? (although the website curiously does not ask brits what they think about the EU or likelihood of war. That seems an odd omission, and raises the question whether they did ask but the answers did not fit their argument)

  49. The Trevor Collective,
    ” I’m sure once you succeed in turning Scotland into the USSR[1] then the BBC will be banned”

    Isnt this an example of just the same tactic as when leave spokesmen claim remainers are calling them thick?

    The idea is to portray your opponents as nasty and unworthy of support by accusing them of something they werent intending to do?

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