Today’s Sunday papers have the first polls conducted since the local elections, from Opinium and ComRes.

Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from late April. Full tables are here.

ComRes for BrexitExpress have voting intentions of CON 19%(-4), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 14%(+7), BREX 20%(+6), GRN 5%(+2), ChUK 7%(-2), UKIP 3%(-2). Fieldwork appears to be all on Thursday, and changes are since mid-April.

Both polls have Labour and the Conservatives rapidly shedding support, with support growing for the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party. I suspect we are seeing a combination of factors at work here, most obviously there is the continuing collapse in Conservative support over Brexit, a trend we’ve been seeing since the end of March, with support moving to parties with a clearer pro-Brexit policy. Originally that favoured UKIP too, now it is almost wholly going to the Brexit party.

Secondly there is the impact of the local elections and the Liberal Democrat successes there. For several years the Lib Dems seemed moribund and struggled to be noticed. The coverage of their gains at the local elections seems to have given them a solid boost in support, more so than the other anti-Brexit parties – for now at least, they seem to be very much alive & well again.

Third is the impact of the European elections. People are obviously more likely to vote for smaller parties in the European elections and in current circumstances obviously appear more willing to lend their vote to a different party in protest over Brexit. To some degree this will be influencing other voting intention figures as well, so I would treat Westminster voting intention figures with some scepticism in the run up to the European elections (and probably in the immediate aftermath as well, when those parties who do well will likely recieve a further boost in support).

In short, these are startling results – but we have seen startling results before (look at the polls at the height of SDP support, or just after the expenses scandal broke, or during Cleggmania). These are indeed very unusual results – the combined level of Con-Lab support in these polls are some of the very lowest we’ve seen, the Conservative share in the ComRes poll almost their lowest ever (I can find only a single Gallup poll with a lower figure, from back in 1995). What we cannot tell at the moment is whether this portends a serious readjustment of the parties, or whether things will return to more familar patterns once the European elections have passed, the Conservatives have a new leader and (assuming it ever happens) Brexit is in some way settled.

Both polls also had voting intention figures for the European Parliament elections

Opinium Euro VI – CON 11%, LAB 21%, LDEM 12%, BREX 34%, GRN 8%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 4%
ComRes Euro VI – CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, BREX 27%, GRN 8%, ChUK 6%, UKIP 3%

Both have the Brexit party ahead, though they are doing considerably better with Opinium than with ComRes. In both cases the Liberal Democrats have recieved a post-local election boost, putting them above the Conservatives in European voting intentions.


760 Responses to “New Opinium and ComRes polls”

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  1. I live in London and I will vote for the Greens. They need my vote. But I understand voting Liberal Democrats is the most optimal voting strategy for a defiant Remainer.

  2. I think for Remain voters unless you are really worried about seats won and the spin that produces it probably doesn’t matter who you vote for as long as you don’t vote Labour; if you do worry about seats then it’s probably down to regional variations – and in large regions like London it gets very complex as more than one Remain party is likely to win seats.

    For Brexiteers again in reality the vote share is probably the key win so it doesn’t matter who you vote for.

    On this decision the distinction between Labour and the Conservatives is pretty clear; the Conservatives are clearly a Leave party, albeit with a Deal; Labour are trying to be neither so a vote for them is open to as many interpretations as senior Labour politicians want to put on it

  3. I have spent a week looking at and comparing 2019 local government election results with 2015 and the Leave/Return results from 2016, and would simply ask how likely is it that the pollsters are accurately reflecting that the Green Party will not get a higher percentage of support than it did in the 2014 European elections.

    If the Liberal Democrats are getting a bounce from the local government elections how come the Green Party is not as well?

  4. It is probably on the earlier thread but looking at Mike Smithson’s tweets I see the ComRes Brexit questions show how divided the country still is. Only revoke article 50 is deemed acceptable, and that only by 51/49. New in-out referendum is 50/50 and everything else unacceptable. So parliament almost mirrors the general public in having difficulty agreeing anything.

  5. If I understand the Labour strategy as defined by JimJam, then they will collapse the talks with the Government as close to the European elections as possible. I presume they’ve dragged them on thus far to ensure that the Euro elections have to take place, thereby inviting the Tories into a car crash and certain electoral humiliation. JimJam may need to help me here, but now they’ve done that, I presume that as near as possible to the time that people have to vote, they will then announce that they’re the only show in town to stop a Tory Brexit and/or a No Deal via a second referendum with Remain on the ballot paper. They will obviously hope that, by doing this, the Remain vote coalesces around them.

    Ashworth, on Marr this morning, kept referring to Labour backing a confirmatory referendum all along but that there weren’t enough Tory MPs votes in the Commons to make it a viable proposition. This suggests to me that the party is manoeuvring towards ending up with a confirmatory vote as part of any Brexit policy and that they think they may get enough Remain Tory MPs to back this. Lexit and a GE don’t seem realistic possibilities so it’s where they’re inevitably going to have to end up.

    Talking of Marr, Farage got a bit uppity this morning, didn’t he? Where was the great Andrew Neil when you needed him?? Last time I saw him with Farage they were sharing jokes on his comfy sofa late on a Thursday night. Would the Grand Inquisitor have got him this morning, though? The Spectator, Neil’s house magazine, may be able to tell us, but they like Farage, don’t they? It’s all very confusing.

    :-)

  6. Really the same Scottish outlook as yesterday even with the right figures!

    Brexit half as popular as the GB figure with the SNP least impacted and perhaps being at least as successful in being the anti-Brexit party as the LibDems & Greens with Change making little impact.

    It’s a subsample so this is probably coincidence but you could see it as the Brexit Party having the same ” Time for a Change” impact on Labour and the Tories as the had SNP after the Indy Ref.

    As I say I wouldn’t push it to far but people might want to consider how both Parties tried to respond to the SNP’s rise and what they got right or more probably wrong. That could give some pointers as to how they should or will respond to this.

    Here’s my take at the figures.

    Westminster Opinium Comparative figures, GB/Sco (Difference)

    Con 22/22 (0%), Lab 12/12 (0%), LibDem 11/7 (-4%), UKIP 4/4 (0%) SNP 4/41 (NA), Green 6/2 (-4%), Change 4/1 (-3%) Brexit 21/12 (-9%)

    Peter.

  7. @Canada

    I agree, the NEV for the Greens in the local elections was 11%, the polls have got them wrong and they will do much better than the current 8% in the EU elections.

    Anecdotally I know lots of people who will never forgive the LD’s for tuition fees, but want to send a clear remain message who will be voting Green, as well as Tory remainers who also want to send a message.

  8. TIPPING POINT

    Just for “fun” – and shock value.

    Redo Electoral Calculus (E+W) with following % (changes from latest ComRes)

    CON 16 (-3)
    LAB 22 (-5)
    LDEM 16 (+2)
    Green 6 (+1)
    ChUK 8 (+1)
    BXP 24 (+5)
    UKIP 2 (-1)

    and you’ll get seats (E+W only) – shown in “Brexit” order:

    BXP (Arch-Leave): 289

    LAB (LoC-BrINO): 214
    CON (RoC-BrINO): 57

    LDEM (C-Remain): 37
    ChUK (C-Remian): 0
    Green (Remain+): 1
    PC (Remain+NAT): 5

    Total (E+W): 573, majority at 287

    BXP have a 2 seat majority in E+W

    If you add in Scotland+NI (SNP at 56 seats, BXP zero, NI as current) then majority threshold moves up to 322

    BXP+CON = 289 + 57 = 346 (ie with CON C+S then BXP have a majority, without DUP!)

    Anyone think the % numbers I’ve shown are impossible?

    I’m not fully endorsing Electoral Calculus numbers at this point but they seem to capture the “tipping point” very well (and fairly close to my numbers so easy for folks to check for themselves)

    Farage as PM on 24% of the vote!!!!!!

    How might this actually happen (ie plausible scenario time)

    1/ May and Corbyn agree a “bad deal” (CU) and put it to a ref (or just keep kicking the can and we get to below via a different route)

    2/ The Spartans (28 Arch-Leave in CON) and DUP object and HoC maths means no WAB passes and no new ref happens.

    3/ Corbyn fancies his chances in a GE and Spartans+DUP accept, kicking May out in VoNC2

    4/ Spartans defect to BXP (this might come earlier)

    5/ We have a GE with every party expect BXP and UKIP backing BrINO or Remain (but subject to a 2nd ref)

    6/ UKIP provide “compromise effect” cover for BXP and are unable to fund a campaign or post many candidates (ie help BXP indirectly)

    7/ Seeing the “tipping point” BXP get more defections from CON (next tier of ERG is 20+, likes of Baker, etc), more big money backers (xCON donors) and possibly even reach out to some LAB MPs, VI and Unions (not that they’ll necessarily need it – just poach some LoC policies)

    8/ We then have a GE with outcome as shown.

    Not saying that WILL happen but it is a plausible scenario. Don’t go all George Clooney and Trump will never happen on me!!!

    You wanna see that and consider the QT issue:
    “George Clooney “Their Will Never Be A President Donald Trump”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBlt15IcNYk

    As I’ve mentioned many times – look at SNP in GE’15 to see what happens under FPTP when you split the vote.

    Shocked? – if your pushing for a PV then I hope you are!

    You might get to Revoke A50 but Farage will thank you for the boost to his votes and the fresh 2yrs he gets when he retriggers A50

    May is destroying her party. I’d previously mused about the “deep under cover Marxist” theory but perhaps she is a Faragista (or just totally and utterly incompetent)

  9. @Trevor Warne

    “May is destroying her party. I’d previously mused about the “deep under cover Marxist” theory but perhaps she is a Faragista (or just totally and utterly incompetent)”

    Just the latter, all talk and no walk.

  10. CB11,

    3 comments and I saw Ashworth too so am aware of how he presented the position.

    Even though it is a Westminster matter, the EP manifesto statement is firmer than before in that it states if no Lexit or GE we will support the option of a PV. This is an advance from keeping all options on the table. So in other words PV is now the preferred, or at least only specified, option that would be supported without precluding the possibility of supporting other options as well. BTW – Ashworth said no Conf Ref through HOC due to not enough Tory MPs supporting which is true but only partially as the Labour rebels (including some in the shadow cabinet are more crucial) as some Tory Ref 2 supporting MPS won’t rebel unless the proposition has a chance of winning.

    The second question, which is more important imo as Lab being for Ref 2 in the end has been inevitable for several months, is when to jump? This in reality has to be after the EP Elections to avoid reducing flexibility.

    BXP votes are clearly for Brexit soon and hard whilst votes for remain parties are mostly clear as well, although there will be some leave Greens and Nats (even a few LDs) for who their party beats Brexit in importance.

    Labour will not want the EP results to in effect dictate the message but if Labour jumped prior to the vote but too late to impact much the block calculation of support for WTO v PV/Remain would be more meaningful.

    In other words Labour won’t want to result to tie it down and frankly losing some votes to unequivocally remain parties in the Election is collateral damage.

    Finally, there is a chance of a new Tory leader by July recess (although May wants Sept/Oct) and who that is and their stance on Brexit plus their strength among Tory MPs may make a GE more likely, in which case Labour manifesto will commit to a PV in some form.

    DUP deal end is June and I can’t see a deal with Mrs May one reason I think July more likely that early Autumn but Tory shenanigans are beyond my ken.

  11. Some interesting things to dissect in the Westminster polls.

    Clearly there is going to be a knock-on from the current focus on the European elections, but nevertheless these figures must be frightening for the Tories. If we look back at the Westminster polling averages around the time of the last European Parliament elections in 2014, there was very little detectable change around the time of the European election campaign, which would suggest to me that the excuses from some quarters (that English voters get terribly confused by more than one election at a time) don’t stand up to scrutiny. It seems more likely that (for pretty much the first time since the referendum) Brexit is becoming a major issue for voters as a reaction to the deadlock in Westminster, with Remain supporting politicians becoming more and more strident and Leave supporters giving up hope that the Tories will deliver it. It’s rather ironic that Theresa May tried so hard and unsuccessfully to make 2017 a Brexit election and now risks her party being run over by that particular bus (I won’t venture to suggest what’s written on the side of it).

    The strength and weakness of the Brexit party is that it is an unashamedly single-issue party. That is definitely helping it to pull in voters from many quarters at the moment (mainly from the Tories). But if things continue as they are, it could put them in a weird position for a general election, where more questions will be asked about what the rest of their platform is. There is also, of course, the issue of how they navigate FPTP – the nightmare for Farage could be them winning 25-35% of the vote but getting hardly any seats and, by splitting the vote elsewhere, ushering in a Parliament dominated by Labour’s hardline Remainers.

  12. Right, Chester races. Lovely day bar a short downpour during mid-afternoon Saw a coupe of Klopp’s Red Army off in the distance enjoying themselves no doubt relaxing ready for today.

    Chewed the cud with the Red. The only thing of note he said was no matter when the next General Election was, even if it’s later this year, Corbyn and his inner-circle will have been dealt with and he will no longer be leader. Labour is going into reverse and losing votes in both directions and once the Euros and Peterboro are out of the way, moves will be made. He reckons that it will be a very turbulent summer for his party – very very turbulent, with three distinct and bitterly opposed armed camps forming around three individuals – Watson, Kinnock and I can’t remember the other – Creagh possibly?. His fear is by the end of summer his party will be shattered along the lines of the way the tories are now, but the tories will probably have a new leader by Octiober and will be more in line with the voters that vote Brexit.

    On the subject of Peterboro his opinion is that the Labour tactic of not going to fight it on Brexit is a surefire loser. The main challenger is Brexit Party, it’s a marginal Lab/Con seat, it’s a Leave area and it looks like LibDem, Green and CHUK are going to field a joint candidate. So it’s almost certainly going to be fought over Brexit whether Labour like it or not. He thinks it will be close between Labour and Brexit but Labour should shade it narrowly when it should really be winning it easily, but if Brexit do well in the euros and have momentum then they might sneak it.

  13. @Trevor Warne

    “6/ UKIP provide “compromise effect” cover for BXP and are unable to fund a campaign or post many candidates (ie help BXP indirectly)”

    This is a really good point actually. UKIP’s foolish decision to make themselves into “BNP Mk2” (which at the time would have seemed the only way to keep the party alive) is extremely helpful to Farage and the Brexit party, because it makes some of their extreme positions seem quite reasonable in comparison, and therefore electable.

    As a committed Leaver who also believes a no-deal is complete folly, I have no idea what to think. Just hoping the big parties fudge a deal before the whole thing gets out of hand.

    As I highlighted in my other comment, the main risk to the Brexit party is getting murdered by FPTP. However, if they are strong enough in the polls they may be able to convince a significant number of Tory MPs and (arguably more importantly) local activists to jump ship, which would help them immensely and turn the tables on the Tories in many places. Since Tory activists have quite a reputation as strident Eurosceptics, it could well happen…

  14. You have to chuckle when Chuka Ummuna claims “the hype around Nigel Farage is designed to make us forget he led Britain into an ugly era of chaos”.

    Ermmmm, no? The Remainer elite have devoted every means possible to stop Brexit, and are now furious that the hoi poloi are revolting.

  15. ADW – that MP is exactly the type of Labour MP that Labour’s opponents would want to share their views with friends so they can put them out there.

    Doesn’t correlate with what I am hearing which is that Corbyn stays leader in to any GE until next summer but stands down to give a new leader 20 months or so from 2020 conference to the 2022 GE. Perhaps if a GE looks likely next autumn a delay in to early 2021 is possible.

  16. TW,

    “Not saying that WILL happen but it is a plausible scenario?”

    No!

    Peter”

  17. @Jim Jam

    We know that ADW makes all this stuff up. It’s not worth reading or responding to him.

  18. “It is probably on the earlier thread but looking at Mike Smithson’s tweets I see the ComRes Brexit questions show how divided the country still is. Only revoke article 50 is deemed acceptable, and that only by 51/49. “

    I feel less of a voice in the wilderness in commenting yet again therefore how astonishing no party offers this.

    Their half hearted triangulation to another ref is not winning more support. If anything the opposite.

    Are early adopters of the Ref2 strategy just too emotionally bought in to see this?

  19. PETERW,

    “I feel less of a voice in the wilderness in commenting yet again therefore how astonishing no party offers this.”

    I think you’ll find it’s been pretty much the SNP position since day one and the polls have us on target to take close to 90% of Scottish seats!

    Peter.

  20. Peter

    Hardly. SNP was a Brexit acceptor in 2017 and focussed on mitigating its effects on the Scottish economy. Quite rightly and realistically given its proper priorities and the facts on the ground I would accept. Bit still.

    And I don’t believe it advocates revoke and remain even today.

  21. PETERW,

    Well tomorrow I am out delivering SNP leaflets that say;

    “Let’s keep Scotland in Europe!” all down the front, with an Octagon Road sign image at the bottom saying;

    “STOP BREXIT”

    Peter.

  22. Peter

    Kind of my point. Lots of so called “stop Brexit” parties. None has yet openly and unambiguously adopted as preferred policy the one process that will do so.

  23. @PeterW
    Remain inclined parties feel the weight of the view that the Brexit Ref needs to be respected, at least to the extent of being acknowledged, or the backlash in terms of political disengagement could be enormous.

    Rightly or wrongly they think that this risk can be mitigated (although not eliminated) by holding Ref2, whereas an outright ‘ignore and revoke’ approach would become the ‘stab in the back’ meme of our times.

    And if the British people vote twice for Brexit, the second time having been clear about what Brexit means, then so be it… that’s democracy

  24. Opinium GE split of CON and LAB by Remain and Leave. (expanding on the info posted earlier, last thread, from ES write-up)

    For the “flow” I’ll add in the size of the pot (ie % of total voters) so folks can multiply them out if they so wish and see which pots each side might have been smarter to protect (in CON’s case so far, LAB still suffering far less)

    CON’17 Remain (10% of all voters)

    CON 60%
    DK 20%

    others 10% or less

    As per press articles CON are keeping most of their smaller pot and no one is making much gain from their Remainers (many of whom left in 2015 of course). Close to “tribal” floor?

    CON’17 Leave (28% of all voters)

    BXP 39%
    CON 37%

    DK 12%
    UKIP 5%

    So pretty much half gone, half to go? I’ve no idea where the “tribal” floor might be but 37% x 28% = 10% so that is still a decent pot to go after.

    LAB’17 Remain (23% of all voters)

    LAB 58%
    DK 13%

    Green 11%
    LDEM 11%
    ChUK 3%

    Finally some noticeable impact but my hunch if we’ll see a higher “floor” here than we’ll see in CON’17-Leave (basing that on Most Important Issues polling)

    LAB’17-Leave (12% of all voters)

    LAB 55%
    BXP 19%

    DK 12%
    UKIP 3%

    Note % of “tribal” vote is similar to LAB’17-Remain but also note it is a smaller pot. BXP’s VI is taking 19% x 12% from this pot (ie only 2% of total voters or 15%ish of BXP total once adjust for DKs).

    Others

    Also worth noting the LDEM “surge” is mostly them improving their loyalty (ie grabbing back defectors to ChUK, etc). They now have the highest “loyalty” of all GB wide parties at 63% (with a further 12% in DK). Only losing small %s to ChUK and others (note v.small x-break caveats)

    Still no match for SNP loyalty though. They are on 89% loyalty (with 9% more in DK). Well played Sturgeon!

  25. “Rightly or wrongly they think that this risk can be mitigated (although not eliminated) by holding Ref2, whereas an outright ‘ignore and revoke’ approach would become the ‘stab in the back’ meme of our times”

    Yes I get that. The quoted tweet on the forced choice acceptable outcome polling suggests its quite plainly wrongly.

  26. “Anyone think the % numbers I’ve shown are impossible?

    I’m not fully endorsing Electoral Calculus numbers at this point but they seem to capture the “tipping point” very well (and fairly close to my numbers so easy for folks to check for themselves)”

    I don’t think the % are particularly plausible and just looking at some of the ec seat predictions in my area suggests the whole model is falling apart under these changes, particularly the way you’ve spread vote amongst ld/chuk/green

    A ge campaign will change a fair bit, I can’t see chuk getting anywhere near 8%, non brexit related policies and tactical voting will come into play as they did in 2017 (remain may be unwilling to hold nose and for lab now but under a GE with a credible bxp threat and, in your scenario, Labour proposing another vote in not sure why that would remain the case)

    I’m slightly curious as to why ec have added a third dimension to their politics as their clustering dumps the tribes back on to a nice 2d plane – the con/lib and nat/global axes being highly correlated, perhaps unsurprisingly.

  27. My other favourite part of Opinium: V202

    It’s not a perfect tracker as they’ve had to change the date a few times. Most recent one has 30 Oct date. Changes since 9Apr as they messed it up on 28Apr.

    Leave Deal or No Deal: 46 (+3)
    Delay 12 (-5)
    Cancel 33 (+5)
    DK 9 (-3)

    This supports what we’re seeing in the headline VIs. The “middle” is being hollowed out. Delay and DK have dropped with “Get on with Brexit” and “B*llox to Brexit” both seeing an increase.

    In the x-breaks then even despite the bleeding out of CON-Leave to BXP then CON VI are still high majority for Leave Deal or No Deal (63% v only 16% saying “B*llox”).

    LAB x-break quite interesting. 25% Leave, 21% delay and 47% saying “B*llox”)

    Even in LDEM and SNP we see 14% and 19% who just want to “Get on with Brexit” although obviously large majority talking “B*llox”

    NB Leave with No Deal is 51% if you ignore DKs – May is ticking down the clock again but this has been at/near 50% ever since they’ve been running this tracker(ish) question.

  28. Does anyone have an idea how many EU Nationals are likely to vote in these elections. Maybe many have never voted in previous ones but are more motivated this time. Doubt these Voters will be polled?

  29. @ PETER (SNP) – “NO!” :-) :-)

    Seriously. Someone from Scotland – SNP no less!!

    What happened to SLAB between GE’10, Indyref’14 (which you lost) and GE’15? How are SNP doing currently?

    What do you think will happen to CON between GE’17 and GE’XX if Brexit is “Betrayed”? Where are those votes going?

    The big difference between Indyref and Brexit being Leave won the Brexit ref! If SNP VI think they’ve been “betrayed” by Westminster how the *^&k do you think Leave VI feel?

    Please watch the Youtube video showing George Clooney laughing at the idea of Trump as President. I thought the relevance to Question Time discussion was pretty interesting.

    Sadly I don’t have one showing Clooney’s smug boat (boat race = face) with egg on in after Trump won the presidency.

    Anyway, I shouldn’t laugh. Better for me if the plethora of Remain parties all fight for the same 53%ish. Note there are more BrINO and pro-Remain parties in E+W than pro-Union parties in Scotland.

    You’re looking to get 50+ of 59 Westminster seats but can’t see how Farage could get a majority in E+W?

    We just need May to take DANNY’s advice and go after the Remain vote and then even a chunk of the BrINO faction is up for Nige to grab ;)

    FWIW it’s priced as about an 8% probability at the moment. As I said “plausible” not WILL happen:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132117695

    PS Slightly odd LAB most seats hasn’t moved on new polls. It’s priced at 47% not much above CON. Trevors backing LAB for most seats at the moment but keeping an eye on BXP “tipping point”.

  30. @CROSSBAT11

    I think Farage played the interview exactly as he wanted to – and his performance won’t have lost him any of his potential support. Anyway he has enough cheerleaders in the press to counter any rough rides from the likes of Marr.

    @JimJam

    I cant see Labour having any road to Damascus shift to outright advocacy of PV prior to the election – if they do it will be after the election, but I don’t think it is a forgone conclusion that they will ever completely come off the fence. As commented in the last thread, the Labour ‘remain’ vote could split several ways and supporting a number of different interpretations (unlike for the Tories who will have a clearer narrative).

    Corbyn already has an issue with ‘traditional’ wc Labour voters, but I’m not sure if he is willing to completely write them off on an issue which he himself is inherently ambiguous.

  31. Only just catching up. I note on ADW’s post that either ADW or his Lab contact was not very well informed about what’s going on in Peterborough – may depend on which day it was. It has been established for several days now that the ‘joint’ candidate pulled out, so Greens and LD have separate candidates, and CUK failed to get a candidate registered in time after the unity candidate pull out.

    Interesting times in the polls. AW has said most of what can be sensibly said at this stage. I think most of us were expecting the becalmed polls of 2018 and early 2019 to change as we got closer to Brexit actually happening (or not, as the case may be). We have certainly been rewarded for our patience. The raging storm of public opinion has exceeded my expectations, and there’s no sign of a let up yet.

  32. @ Matt

    “Does anyone have an idea how many EU Nationals are likely to vote in these elections.”

    I asked about this a while ago. Normal polling would presumably not include these, and adding them to the panel just for these elections would seem like a lot of hassle. So my suspicion is that the polls do not include them. The potential numbers here are large, depending if they opt to vote here or in their country of origin.

    On a sample of 2 (the 2 EU nationals in my office) they’ve opted to vote in the UK, and are both dithering between Green and LibDem. One was thinking of Lab, but I took him aside and had a serious chat about that.

  33. RR – agree after the EP Election so as to dilute any ‘the vote means this’ type narrative.

    Is done deal on PV, though, as McDonnell is on board and losing Stamer would lose Corbyn the PLP but with the membership against him this time on Brexit. Is all about timing and optics.

  34. Jones in Bangor

    A quick note, a propos of your 12.41, to remind you of the Comments Policy which I suspect it violated.

  35. Triguy,

    ADW’s Lab MP is less well informed than I am it seems and I am just a party member with no Elected position other than my local GC Exec.

    Hulago has his theory on how that might be the case but I feel compelled on occasions to ignore their advice to correct from time to time clearly unrepresentative portrayals of Labour MPs views.

  36. HULAGU – so of all the things I’ve told you that the three I know think, that have since passed, which of them were wrong?

    Not hardly any is the answer. So if I make it up, I’m doing considerably better than professionals.

  37. TRIGGUY – It was Friday afternoon just gone.

  38. “which you lost”

    I think that if the 2014 result had been different, the 2016 Brexit referendum would have been a different beast entirely.

    In that sense I feel that many lost. Not just one half of Scotland, but all of it, and probably much of the the rUK. At the very least, we can guess at:

    England & Wales vote for Brexit. Northern Ireland gets ignored more than ever. NI gets even more inclined to re-uni vote, and either way things get resolved a little more quickly.

    Without Scotland, the HoC majority would be 296, which would have been Con majority 2017 and far more likely to get Brexit pushed through.

    So who lost? Funny how things work out.

  39. Sorry today to learn of the death of Brian Walden. I liked his interview style, which was unrelenting. He did not do “gotcha”; but he did take a position adopted by a politician and push on any contradictions in the logic of that position, often much longer than todays interviews.

  40. Peterw,
    “. “Only revoke article 50 is deemed acceptable, and that only by 51/49. “

    I feel less of a voice in the wilderness in commenting yet again therefore how astonishing no party offers this. ”

    Funnily enough, I think the conservative plan was to revoke, after the EU refused to extend the deadline. The EU refused to play that game.

  41. On Brian Walden, I can remember watching Weekend World as a child – my parents were very into politics.

    Everyone since is a pale shadow.

  42. @ JAMES B – If you collapse LDEM and ChUK %s into LDEM it makes a small difference but less than you’d expect.

    There are certainly going to be some weird looking and seemingly implausible seat changes from any “model” and a model will also miss weird actual outcomes (eg LAB taking Canterbury in 2017)

    I fully agree a GE campaign will shift polling. Note the numbers I showed only give BXP about half of the Leave VI!!!

    What’s to stop him getting 30%+ in a “Betrayal” GE? Put that into EC model (2/3 from CON, 1/3 from LAB)

    Again look at SNP in Scotland GE’10 – Indy’14 – GE’15 and please watch the George Clooney youtube.

    Will Remain VI collapse back into LAB VI?

    Perhaps – TBA of course. A lot will depend on whether Arch-Remain consider Corbyn to have to been a “handmaiden” (closet Leaver) and exactly what the circumstances are going into the GE (eg have May+Corbyn tried to push a “stitch-up” or have they broken apart and put their tanks back onto clear Remain and Leave turf). Obviously non-Brexit issues as well (LDEM VI probably a lot less keen on tax hikes than genuine LAB VI)

    Agree tactical voting will almost certainly reduce BXP seats from any “model” prediction but are LDEM folks fully signed up to the Socialist Revolution?

    This goes back to whether or not the ABC tactical voting in 2017 was a “protest” ABC vote or a genuine “happy with Corbyn as PM” vote.

    From PM choice in Opinium – LDEM x-break

    May 9%
    Corbyn 13%
    None of these 73%

    similar for Green (14%), Chuk lower at 6%.

    For LAB VI then Corbyn is 61% (this also eludes to my hunch that Arch-Remain parties aren’t going to eat too deep into LAB VI)

    of course LAB could change leader by the next GE as well. Under a new leader they would IMHO have more chance to dump baggage with Corbyn and regain Remain. However, would someone like ET push some LAB VI to Farage? Perhaps?

    IMHO there are “Beer” Socialists and “Champagne” Socialists and ol’ Nige likes a pint where as Vince prefers the poo (slang term for champagne)

    “All to play for” ;)

  43. Unfortunately ITV has blocked the Walden interviews on YouTube on copyright grounds.

  44. @ ADW – Your source seems a bit out on Peterborough and the “Remain Alliance” candidate

    https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-09/how-brexit-party-was-almost-pitched-against-a-sole-referendum-candidate-in-peterborough-writes-peston/

    It’s possible they since set-up some grassroots tactical alliance but from what I hear they’re all out chewing the cud on the doorstep fighting each other as much as trying to fight off BXP.

  45. Peterborough by-election cont:

    Bit more on the runners (its a full field – loads of Remain donkeys will fight for the Wooden Spoon)

    https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/peterborough-by-election-candidates-announced-16252287

    My local sources agree with ADW that LAB are desperately trying to make it about domestic and local issues where as BXP are “single policy” with a dash of local stuff (let’s make Peterborough great again) – for BXP they can campaign for EP at same time of course. CON are in hiding. Arch-Remain avoiding the Leave “areas” of the seat (mainly sticking to Waitrose check out area perhaps?)

    Bookies have BXP as narrow favourites to beat LAB by less than a furlong in what is really a 2 horse race (seems fairly priced to me)

    Remain have got two Hopes of winning the seat.

    1/ Alan “Howling Laud” Hope
    2/ Bob Hope (died 2003)

    I wouldn’t put my money on either of those but it’s always fun to see MRLP at hustings and I think they have a better and certainly clearer Brexit policy compared to LAB or CON:

    “Brexit Proposals

    We will Send Noel Edmonds to negotiate Brexit because he understands Deal or No Deal.
    There will be no need for a backstop to the Brexit negotiations. We’ll have Alec Stewart as wicket-keeper”

    Love ’em :-) :-)

    https://www.loonyparty.com/about/policy-proposals/

  46. @Matt126

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/10/more-than-400000-eu-nationals-apply-to-stay-in-uk-after-brexit

    It is likely that at least this number will be sufficiently motivated. As the report is over a month old, the current figure may be rather higher now; the figure for EU citizens and their dependents is estimated as 3.5-4.1 million.

    @TW

    ‘Tipping point’
    Politics would get rather interesting if an opposition party had an overall majority in England, but the Government was dependent on Scottish MPs for an overall majority as EVEL applies for any clauses/measures that affect England or England and Wales only:

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/bills/public/english-votes-for-english-laws/

  47. TW,

    Again to fond of your own theory and to ready to defend it despite it’s obvious flaws, which are.

    1) As Anthony pointed out these pre election surges rarely convert to big electoral gains, the numbers are rarely as high and the seat pattern and nature of FPTP mitigates against it.

    2) The SNP started from a much higher base and was already second in a majority of seats. Brexit have few if any Councillors and are effectively starting from zero.

    3) The SNP had decades of on the ground experience and the new members slotted into that structure, one that had been reinforced and developed during the Indy campaign.

    4) The SNP had already been in Government and had run a range of Councils and been prominent as opposition in most others, so it wasn’t a shot in the dark.

    5) Voters tend to naturally return to their preferred Party at General Elections and to favour established ones or vote tactically as protests in them.

    6) If Brexits vote stacks up like leave and indeed the recent Locals, they will challenge Labour in the North but won’t overturn many Labour seats even on a higher National Vote because in these seats Labour has huge majorities. Likewise though they will probably hurt the Tories more their gains there will fall short of the theoretical.

    7) in many seats, particularly marginals, a large Brexit vote will see the seat change hands but not go to Brexit. The will in some cases do what the Tories feared UKIP would do, peel off enough votes for the LibDems or Labour to win.

    8) The anger over feeling Betrayed is similar in both cases and has had the same effect in boosting support for the SNP and BXP, but in Scotland that coals end around one Party while the No vote was split 3 ways. With Brexit the Split is fifty fifty between BXT and con for the Leave vote so isn’t coalesced on one Party.

    9) A GEneral Election isn’t one issue context like a referendum and so far BXP not only only too Policies; “No Deal Brexit”and “Two Figures to the Elite!” But no apparent structure or means to create anything like a coherent set of policies.

    10) Beyond Farage they have few “Big Beasts” or indeed Many with any real Government experience and there is no sign yet that Farage is capable of any Macron style appeal to established figures. It will be as difficult for them to assemble a credible “Cabinet in Waiting” as it is a manifesto.

    Basically that’s the long version of “NO!”

    Peter.

  48. EU nationals and EPs

    There will be some legal issues flowing from this.

    FWIU Any EU national can vote in UK or home country, provided they registered in time etc.

    So if they vote in UK and then we don’t send MEPs or our MEPs don’t serve a full term then…

    Suffice to say Leave lawyers have at least 1 EU national who will be voting for BXP (Henrik Overgaard-Nielsen is even standing for them, #2 in NW Eng) and they’ll be demanding continued representation if we Leave with a “stitch-up” deal and drawn out transition (sorry Verhofstadt you’re still be going to be regularly “hand bagged” by Widdecombe unless you let us leave with no backstop).

    Sure the EPP cabal have a majority of the rubber stamps and will pick Weber (or similar) to replace Juncker so it makes no real difference but BXP MEPs can still make a nuisance and fully intend to.

    IMHO Leave side should save their money though – let Queen Gina spend her money and the crowd funded money of LDEM folks to keep Widders+co in Brussels ;)

  49. Trigguy,

    We’ve already identified every Registered EU voter in the two Wards our Branch covers and have door knocked and leafletted everyone, including handing in postal vote applications before the closing date.

    Most EU nationals voted “No” in the Indyref, we think in part because they feared an Independent Scotland might not get in.

    They couldn’t vote in the Brexit referendum and a good number we have talked too resented that, although to be fair a few felt it should be a UK decision, a view some had about being included in the Indyref too.

    We are hoping the a good number will switch our way this time but it’s hard to tell!

    Peter.

  50. ADW,

    I dont believe that any MP of any Party would not know that nominations for the Peterborough by-election closed several days ago without any “united Remain” candidate, and with candidates for the Greens and Lib Dems (but not the Chukas)

    An incompetent fiction writer might not have noticed though.

    I hope everyone takes ADW’s 3 stooges and their convenient opinions with a big pinch of salt

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